TRIGGER MATTHEWS

Super Bowl XLV Recap

2011-02-08T13:25:00.001-08:00

Super Bowl Pick: 0-1
Super Bowl ATS: 0-1
Overall Picks: 170-97
Overall ATS: 142-120-5

Super Bowl XLV

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Steelers +2.5. Pittsburgh hoists the Lombardi Trophy after a 21-17 triumph!

I guess I overlooked the fact that Green Bay is 3-1 in Super Bowls...not far off of Pittsburgh's 6-1...which was the main reason I went with the Steelers! Both played a solid game, but Pittsburgh just couldn't overcome three bad turnovers that led to 21 Green Bay points. In short, it was a great game, and the Packers are a deserving champion. The halftime show was awkward (The Slash part may have been the only redeemable part - what was up with the dancers with the boxes on their heads?), the anthem was a mess, and I still don't quite understand why Fox put together a reading of the Declaration of Independence to be read as part of the pregame show...but the game itself was fantastic. Now we must suffer through 6 football-less months...as long as golf season begins soon, most of us will be ok.

Let's hope for Giants vs. Jets in Super Bowl XLIV at New Meadowlands Stadium in 2012!

Super Bowl XLV Preview

2011-02-03T07:33:00.001-08:00

Super Bowl XLV

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 44.5

This should be a classic Super Bowl. Two of the most storied programs in Super Bowl history, two fantastic young quarterbacks, and two of the league's best, most hard-hitting defenses - Can we really ask for anything more? It's actually difficult to pick a winner! It will all depend on how the Packers handle the Super Bowl atmosphere; Most of the Steelers have been through Super Bowl Week before.

The Packers were an early-season pick to win it all, but ended up as the NFC's #6 seed after injuries took their toll. Pittsburgh wasn't in that same "Super Bowl" discussion before the year started, but was mentioned as a team that "could" make a Super Bowl run.

Now that the participants have been decided, I see both as fitting, deserving representatives of their conferences. The NFC was very odd this year - A 7-9 playoff team, a front-runner (Dallas) finishing 6-10 - so it's only proper for the NFC's 6-seed to be in the Super Bowl (and to be favored to win!). The AFC was top-heavy, with the Pats, Steelers, Ravens, and Jets all having very good years. The AFC West was very shaky all year and Indy had injury issues, so you had to figure the Super Bowl participant would be one of the "big four". The fact that the so-named "big four" all made the divisional round further proves my point. Pittsburgh fought through Baltimore and New York to get to Dallas...so they're clearly deserving.

Big Ben knows how to win Super Bowls, and that's why I'm going to pick the Steelers. He's not as flashy as Rodgers, and likely won't set any of the records that Rodgers will in his career - But the one record Roethlisberger may break is Bradshaw's record of 4 Super Bowl victories. I'll bet any player in the NFL would gladly trade all of his individual awards in favor of that one accomplishment. Big Ben may not go down as the nicest, smartest guy in NFL history; But if he wins another Super Bowl or two, he'll always be remembered as a winner.

My Pick: Steelers +2.5. Pittsburgh hoists the Lombardi Trophy after a 21-17 triumph!

Championship Weekend Recap

2011-01-25T14:32:00.000-08:00

Championship Weekend Picks: 2-0
Championship Weekend ATS: 0-2
Overall Picks: 170-96
Overall ATS: 142-119-5

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Packers win 23-21.
Result: Packers 21-14
This one wasn't as entertaining as I thought it would be. As a result, it was a wider margin of victory than I expected. And yes, I think Cutler is a wuss.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Jets +3.5. Steelers win 27-24.
Result: Steelers 24-19
The Steelers' defensive TD late in the first half really doomed the Jets, but I think it was their early lack of committment to the run game that ultimately caused their season to end. They're a run-first, defensive team with a second-year quarterback...there is no reason for them to throw the ball so much. Once they get behind, I understand that the game plan changes. But when they were still in the game, I'm not sure why they didn't try to run more.

Championship Weekend Preview

2011-01-19T15:21:00.001-08:00

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 43.5
This'll be an outstanding game. The Packers have been playing very well, but the Bears always seem to know how to shut down Green Bay's offense. The two games they've played against one another so far this year have been intense and very close. I don't think I'd give either team 3 1/2 points!
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Packers win 23-21.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3.5
O/U: 38.5
This game amounts to the same situation as the NFC Championship game...I'm not sure I can pick either team to win by 3 1/2! I want to pick the Jets for three reasons: because they are playing fantastic defense, they want to win for their coach (who has lost in a league title game 2 straight years), and they're a great road team. Instead, however, I have to take the Steelers - The Jets seemed a little too excited about last week's win, and we often see teams put forth less-than-stellar efforts after a big, emotional win. In a sense, the Jets already had their Super Bowl...
My Pick: Jets +3.5. Steelers win 27-24.

Divisional Weekend Recap

2011-01-19T15:20:00.000-08:00

Divisional Picks: 2-2

Divisional ATS: 2-2

Overall Picks: 168-96

Overall ATS: 142-117-5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-13.
Result: Steelers 31-24
My gut said to take the Steelers, but I like the Ravens...Oh well. I thought Ray Lewis would be more of a factor, but he was nearly invisible.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 20-17 (again).

Result: Packers 48-21

Again, my gut said to take the Packers...why don't I listen to my gut when it comes to Saturday games? Quite the disappointment for Atlanta, but Green Bay is playing awfully well right now...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -10

O/U: 41

My Pick: Bears -10. Chicago wins 17-3.

Result: Bears 35-24

I'm surprised the Bears' D weakened late and allowed the Seahawks to score 24 points. Thankfully they still fell short of the spread, finished 2 games under .500, and lost 10 games by no less than 11 points. Why am I thankful for this? Because even after they knocked out the defending champs (who REFUSED to play defense in that game...), I still don't think they deserved a playoff berth. The aforementioned stats prove my point.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -8.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Jets +8.5. New York wins outright 20-19.

Result: Jets 28-21

I wasn't all that sure about this pick, but for some reason I like the "fight" the Jets have in them. I'm not thrilled about their desire to "rub it in" after they won, but I do understand their pregame frustration and the fact that they thought Brady rubbed it in after the Pats dismantled them in early December. Brady wasn't running around the field with his arms stretched out like a 5-year-old playing "airplane", however. Real mature, Jets. Real mature. Not sure why I would have expected anything different...

Divisional Weekend Preview

2011-01-13T08:36:00.000-08:00

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -3

O/U: 37

Before the season began, Baltimore was many analysts' pick to win the AFC. Pittsburgh wasn't necessarily a pick to win it all, but many experts suggested that they had the talent and experience to potentially get there. Advantage, Ravens. I'm a little worried that the extra week of rest will help the Steelers immensely given the physical nature that this game will almost certainly take on. Advantage, Steelers. I also realize that the Steelers tend to beat the Ravens when Big Ben plays, and they tend to lose when he doesn't. Again, advantage, Steelers. I'm also aware that each team won on the other's field this season. Advantage, Ravens. The only prediction I can make with any certainty is that this game will go down to the wire and be one of the best, most hard-fought games you'll have seen all year. Since my "advantages" ended up 2-2, I have to try to throw one out. Preseason picks can't be touched; they mean very little, but I can't find any reason to discount them. Rest will have an effect, and there is no way I could think otherwise. Baltimore is the road team, and that can't magically change. That leaves Big Ben's impact. I predict Big Ben will get injured, and the Steelers will fall. It's the only way I can break the tie!

My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-13.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 43.5

The Falcons already won this matchup once this season, but I think Green Bay is better now than they were at that time. That said, I imagine Michael Turner will be able to run against Green Bay and open up a few throwing lanes for Ryan, but I'm not sure how much of a rushing effort the Packers will be able to sustain. James Starks had a big game last week, but he's young and I just can't bring myself to trust a rookie RB out of UB (Buffalo) to be a major difference maker in the NFL playoffs after having been nonexistent in the regular season. I expect a defensive battle, and the Packers certainly could come out on top. But the Falcons are very strong at home...

My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 20-17 (again).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -10

O/U: 41

Seattle has earned my respect - but they still haven't lost a game by fewer than 11 points this season. So again, if I think they'll lose, I have to pick them to lose against the spread. The Bears have been solid, and I expect their defense to "show up", unlike that of the Saints. I'm not sure what Jay Cutler will have to offer in the postseason, especially after a two week hiatus, but I'm not sure it matters as long as that Chicago defense plays to its potential.

My Pick: Bears -10. Chicago wins 17-3.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -8.5

O/U: 44.5

Oh me of little faith...how dare I pick against the Jets in the wildcard round? It was all about Rex Ryan's history against Manning. Now that he's proven the trend wrong, it's time for him to live up to another trend...Belichick has only lost to two teams all year - Rex Ryan and the Jets and Rob Ryan and the Browns. The Browns game proves that the Pats are capable of falling flat on their faces, but I don't think that'll happen at home in the postseason. There is NO WAY this will be a 42-point debacle again. The Jets will almost certainly keep it close. The Pats haven't lost to the same team twice in one season since 2000 (pre-Brady) - and it was the Jets who beat them twice. It's been a good decade, but Karma says it's time for the streak to end!

My Pick: Jets +8.5. New York wins outright 20-19.

Wildcard Weekend Recap

2011-01-12T06:27:00.001-08:00

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 31-10.
Result: Seahawks 41-36
No one would have expected the Saints' defense to allow the lowly Seahawks to score more than 30 points...let alone 41! Anybody who picked the Seahawks to win outright is either a masochist or a Seahawks fan; though those two distinctions may be one and the same. I was honestly going to pick the Seahawks to beat the spread until I realized that they hadn't lost a game by less than 11 all season long. Since I never considered them to win (not a masochist...), that left me with only one choice. I'm not that upset about this pick...I don't see how I could have picked Seattle to pull off one of the biggest upsets in playoff history.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 24-21.

Result: Jets 17-16

Oh ye of little faith...I wish I had the gumption to pick the Jets in the face of all the stats that suggested Rex Ryan would again be unable to stop Peyton Manning. The Jets defense played very well and Sanchez did just enough, getting the team into field goal position late so that Folk could hit the game winner. My lack of faith will likely continue in the divisional round; I see no way that the Jets can oust the Patriots.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 20-10.

Result: Ravens 30-7

This was a good game until halftime, but the adjustments Harbaugh made at the break propelled the Ravens to a big second half and a lopsided victory. The Ravens are very, very good on the road in the playoffs. The Steelers are very, very good period. This is going to be a fun week...

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -2.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Packers +2.5. Green Bay wins 34-31.

Result: Packers 21-16

The Eagles just couldn't muster enough offense against a very fast, strong Packers' defense. Green Bay is a team NO ONE wants to play right now; they're really clicking in all facets of the game. We won't get a chance to see Vick return to Atlanta in an NFC Championship game, but we could see Packers @ Bears in the NFC Championship. Between the rivalry implications and the fact that the Packers made the playoffs on the back of a win over Chicago in week 17, that would end up being yet another great game. This year's playoff matchups have been outstanding!

Wildcard Weekend Preview

2011-01-06T14:28:00.000-08:00

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 44.5
The Seahawks are being completely written off despite enjoying one of the league's best home-field advantages. New Orleans recently lost Pierre Thomas for the rest of the year, but still has Reggie Bush and Julius Jones, which is a pretty solid duo. I was strongly considering picking Seattle to cover the spread (I would NEVER pick them to win...), but after looking at their full schedule, they've only played 3 "close" games (meaning within the 10 1/2 point spread of their game against NO), and all three of those games were wins. So if I expect them to lose, I ought to expect them to do so in blowout fashion.
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 31-10.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 44.5

Peyton is phenomenal in playoff games, but the Colts are "down" this year. Despite entering the playoffs on a hot streak, winning their last four, I'm still not sold. Those final four games were all close, and the Titans basically "let" them win. The Jets are hard-nosed and have a ton of confidence. That said, I can't pick against the Colts simply because Rex and Rob Ryan are awful against Peyton in games that matter, and because Peyton loves it when teams blitz him. The odds point toward the Colts ripping apart the Jets' pass D.

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 24-21.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40.5

I hate to pick all of the favorites, but it seems to be moving in that direction! Kansas City has solid playoff experience, but it's all in their COACHING ranks...the players who are actually on the field haven't had that experience. Baltimore is battle-tested and playoff-tested, and I don't see KC tearing their run defense apart. Consider also that the Chiefs' run D may only be #1 in the country because they've played 37% (6 of 16) of their games against the league's 4 WORST run defenses!

My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 20-10.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -2.5

O/U: 46

I'd rather not pick against Vick, mostly because I'm enjoying his play thus far, but Green Bay is hot right now, and their defense is fast enough to contain the speedy QB. Aaron Rodgers is very good, his receivers are some of the best in the league, and I'm not 100% sold on the Eagles' defense. In the end, I think it's the Packers who will move on. They didn't have a great regular season, but they were one of the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, so we certainly can't write them off. If I had to pick ONE game to watch this week, it'd be this one.

My Pick: Packers +2.5. Green Bay wins 34-31.

Week Seventeen Recap

2011-01-04T06:53:00.001-08:00

Week Seventeen Picks: 11-5

Week Seventeen ATS: 9-7

Overall Picks: 164-92

Overall ATS: 138-113-5

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -14.5

O/U: 41

My Pick: Falcons -14.5. Atlanta rolls 34-3.

Result: Falcons 31-10

Close enough. The Falcons don't lose to bad teams. We'll see how they do in the playoffs, when they have to play good opponents every week. I feel like Atlanta might be one of those teams that is phenomenal in the regular season and gets upset in the first round of the playoffs...

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -9.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Baltimore wins 23-20.

Result: Ravens 13-7

The Bengals just know how to shut down the Ravens. Baltimore heads into KC for the wildcard round, and I think they'll be able to win with relative ease. Baltimore is very strong against the run, and I don't see Cassel beating the Ravens through the air.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Steelers -5.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Steelers -5.5. Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

Result: Steelers 41-9

At least the Steelers aren't limping into the playoffs...

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -3

O/U: 42

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 23-13.

Result: Lions 20-13

I thought Favre would end up playing. My Bad...

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -3.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Raiders +3.5. Oakland wins 24-20.

Result: Raiders 31-10

HAHAHAHA! Oakland went 6-0 in the AFC West and still missed the playoffs! They're the first team in NFL history to pull off that "feat".

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Dolphins +3.5. New England still wins 20-17.

Result: Pats 38-7

I didn't realize Belichick was going to play Brady and all of his starters for nearly the whole game...too bad Brady didn't get hurt, just to teach Belichick a lesson...

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -8

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Bucs +8. New Orleans wins 27-23.

Result: Bucs 23-13

Good to see that the Bucs waited until week 17 to get a marquee win! The Saints are limping into the playoffs again, but it worked out OK for them last season...

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: 0

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

Result: Jets 38-7

Not a great way for the Bills to end the season. The Jets' backups look promising!

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -10

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

Result: Packers 10-3

When the Bears played the Jets, a defensive battle did not ensue. In week 17, two of the league's best defenses proved to be exactly that. Despite a mild allegiance to the Eagles, I hope the Packers win and drive all the way to the NFC Championship for a date with the Bears...

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Jags -2.5

O/U: 49.5

My Pick: Jags -2.5. Jacksonville wins 28-21.

Result: Texans 34-17

Wow. Talk about blowing your chance at a playoff berth. The Jags wouldn't have gotten in anyway, but who knows what a win would have done to the psyche of the Colts, who were locked in a battle with the Titans and were watching the scoreboard to find out what was happening with the Jags.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -10

O/U: 48

My Pick: Colts -10. Indy rolls 33-10.

Result: Colts 23-20

Awful. Indy should have rolled into the postseason. This is not the same Indy team that defeated the Jets in last year's playoffs, and I don't think they have what it takes to beat New York again...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: N/A

My Pick: Cowboys win 20-10.

Result: Cowboys 14-13

You had to figure this would happen...the Eagles are only good when they're fired up...and they had nothing to be fired up about in week 17.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Giants -4

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Giants -4. New York wins 37-14.

Result: Giants 17-14

I hate late touchdowns...The Giants didn't deserve a playoff berth if they couldn't even break 20 against a crappy Redskins defense. Better luck next year.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 47

My Pick: Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

Result: Chargers 33-28

San Diego tried to let the Broncos come all the way back, but Denver fell just short. I didn't realize the Chargers would be trying, which is why I picked the Broncos. I guess San Diego had some pride after all...

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -6

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Cards +6. Arizona wins 20-10.

Result: 49ers 38-7

Wow...I didn't think the 49ers would be energized after the firing of Mike Singletary. I guess that was far from the case...then again, the Cards are REALLY bad.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Result: Seahawks 16-6

Hahaha! A playoff team below .500? Awful, yet somehow glorious.

Week Seventeen Preview

2010-12-30T09:02:00.004-08:00

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -14.5
O/U: 41
I generally go against big spreads, but I think the Falcons will run the Panthers out of the Georgia Dome. A win means home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and Atlanta doesn't want to go into the postseason with two straight losses. Add to that Carolina's ineptitude, and you have a recipe for a blowout.
My Pick: Falcons -14.5. Atlanta rolls 34-3.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -9.5
O/U: 43
The Bengals seem to have the Ravens' number. Although Baltimore needs this win to have a shot at the division title and a first-round bye (with a PIT loss...), I just don't see it being a blowout.
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Baltimore wins 23-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Steelers -5.5
O/U: 37.5
Pittsburgh is pretty darn good in big games. A win in Baltimore will give them a division title and a first-round bye. A loss, a BAL win, and a NYJ win would drop the Steelers down to a 6-seed! I expect them to beat the Browns somewhat handily.
My Pick: Steelers -5.5. Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Lions -3
O/U: 42
Geez...I've gotta pick the Vikings, simply because they're underdogs in Detroit. I'm not thrilled that the quarterback is still unknown, but Favre will probably play, and it seems sacreligious for him to end his career with a loss.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 23-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 43.5
If the Raiders win, they'll be the first team to ever SWEEP their division and still miss the playoffs. I want that to happen - it would make me laugh! Plus KC has very little to play for, and may not be "in it to win it".
My Pick: Raiders +3.5. Oakland wins 24-20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 43
Can the Pats backups beat the Fins? Probably...but the odds are against them winning by 4 or more.
My Pick: Dolphins +3.5. New England still wins 20-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -8
O/U: 46.5
The Bucs need a win and a LOT of help to get in the playoffs. I doubt the Packers and Giants will BOTH lose, so chances are they're screwed either way. That said, they'll still be playing very hard. The Saints SHOULD be playing hard, but if I were on that team, I'd have to assume the Falcons were going to beat the Panthers to win the division and the bye. New orleans will get a virtual bye anyway, as they'll be the 5-seed in the NFC and will travel to play the winner of the NFC West in the first round, which shouldn't be much of a contest. So, in short, I'm not sure New Orleans will be 100% into this game, and could end up in a tight battle.
My Pick: Bucs +8. New Orleans wins 27-23.

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: 0
O/U: 39.5
This game may seem like it doesn't matter, but the Jets have to consider all of the playoff possibilities before writing it off. If they lose, they're the 6-seed. The 3-seed would be the Colts if Indy wins and KC loses...which would be good for the Jets, since Sanchez doesn't play particularly well in cold weather (Indy plays indoors). If the Jets win, PIT loses, and BAL wins, the Ravens win the North and the Jets are the 5-seed thanks to their head-to-head win over PIT a few weeks ago. They would then play the 4-seed, which is Indy if they win and the Chiefs win or if the Colts and Jags both lose. The 4-seed would be Jacksonville if they win and the Colts lose, so the Jets would get warm weather that way, too! Given the convoluted scenarios, which I am sure the Jets are aware of, I think they'll try to win. They're also the hard-nosed type of team that wants to win no matter what. Whether Sanchez plays or not remains to be seen, but I think the Jets can still beat Buffalo.
My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 41.5
Even though the Bears will likely rest some starters, I don't see them getting blown out. Yes, the Packers need a win to get to the postseason; but wouldn't Chicago love to stand in their way? Last year the Colts "allowed" the Jets to get in the playoffs by resting all of their starters in week 17, and Indy had to host the Jets a few weeks later in the playoffs! If the Bears "let" the Packers into the playoffs, they could potentially have their season ended by them! The fear of that situation coming to light should keep the Bears on their toes. Then again, I may be overthinking this...
My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Jags -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The Texans are a mess, and the Jags are still alive for a playoff berth if Indy loses. It's unlikely, but Jacksonville will be playing hard just in case.
My Pick: Jags -2.5. Jacksonville wins 28-21.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -10
O/U: 48
This is basically a playoff game for Indy (win and they're in), and if I recall correctly, Peyton Manning is pretty darn good in playoff games! Plus the Titans are awful.
My Pick: Colts -10. Indy rolls 33-10.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
The Eagles know they're the 3-seed, so they'll be resting players. Dallas hates Philly, so they should come out with some intensity. Especially after listening to Garrett scream at them for the last week after losing to the lowly Cardinals.
My Pick: Cowboys win 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Giants -4
O/U: 44.5
The Giants need a win and a Packers loss to get into the playoffs. I don't think they'll get the Packers' loss, but I certainly think they'll be ready to play against the Skins.
My Pick: Giants -4. New York wins 37-14.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 38.5
This game is also for pride...I think the departure of Mike Singletary will negatively affect the team, and even though the Cards usually stink on the road, I have to go with them in this one.
My Pick: Cards +6. Arizona wins 20-10.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Rams -3
O/U: 41.5
This one's for all the marbles in the NFC West! I'd like to see Seattle win, as I'd find it humorous for a playoff team to be under .500...and since Seattle is playing at home, and generally enjoys a big home field advantage, I will go with them! Even with Whitehurst starting at QB.
My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Week Seventeen Preview

2010-12-30T09:02:00.003-08:00

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN - pregame starts at Noon)
Line: 0
O/U: 39.5
This game may seem like it doesn't matter, but the Jets have to consider all of the playoff possibilities before writing it off. If they lose, they're the 6-seed. The 3-seed would be the Colts if Indy wins and KC loses...which would be good for the Jets, since Sanchez doesn't play particularly well in cold weather (Indy plays indoors). If the Jets win, PIT loses, and BAL wins, the Ravens win the North and the Jets are the 5-seed thanks to their head-to-head win over PIT a few weeks ago. They would then play the 4-seed, which is Indy if they win and the Chiefs win or if the Colts and Jags both lose. The 4-seed would be Jacksonville if they win and the Colts lose, so the Jets would get warm weather that way, too! Given the convoluted scenarios, which I am sure the Jets are aware of, I think they'll try to win. They're also the hard-nosed type of team that wants to win no matter what. Whether Sanchez plays or not remains to be seen, but I think the Jets can still beat Buffalo.
My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN at 4p)
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 41.5
Even though the Bears will likely rest some starters, I don't see them getting blown out. Yes, the Packers need a win to get to the postseason; but wouldn't Chicago love to stand in their way? Last year the Colts "allowed" the Jets to get in the playoffs by resting all of their starters in week 17, and Indy had to host the Jets a few weeks later in the playoffs! If the Bears "let" the Packers into the playoffs, they could potentially have their season ended by them! The fear of that situation coming to light should keep the Bears on their toes. Then again, I may be overthinking this...
My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Game can be heard Sunday Night on 1160 ESPN - Pregame starts at 7:30)
Line: Rams -3
O/U: 41.5
This one's for all the marbles in the NFC West! I'd like to see Seattle win, as I'd find it humorous for a playoff team to be under .500...and since Seattle is playing at home, and generally enjoys a big home field advantage, I will go with them! Even with Whitehurst starting at QB.
My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Week Seventeen Preview

2010-12-30T09:02:00.002-08:00

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

Week Seventeen Preview

2010-12-30T09:02:00.001-08:00

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

Week Sixteen Recap

2010-12-29T06:22:00.001-08:00

Week Sixteen Picks: 8-8
Week Sixteen ATS: 8-8
Overall Picks: 153-87
Overall ATS: 129-106-5

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -14.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Panthers +14.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-13.
Result: Steelers 27-3
As I said, I've done this before and been burned by Pittsburgh. Somehow they're able to blow teams out on cold, run-heavy evenings...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Cowboys -7. Dallas wins 30-20.
Result: Cards 27-26
I was concerned that Dallas might lay an egg...and they did. Awful.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England rolls 34-13.
Result: Pats 34-3
Did anyone really think the Bills would match up well against the Pats?

NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Jets +1. New York wins 13-10.
Result: Bears 38-34
I have no explanation for this one...anyone who picked this game to end with both teams over 30 points should be committed...

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 33-13.
Result: Ravens 20-10
Not the dominating performance I expected, but the Ravens are still in the running for the AFC North title!

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 46
My Pick: Redskins +7. Jacksonville wins 27-24.
Result: Skins 20-17
The Redskins end the season having played EVERY AFC South team to within 3 points! Weird. Jacksonville still has a shot at the playoffs, apparently, although ESPN sounded like they had written them off after the loss...An Indy loss and a Jags win would get the Jags in on the "division record" tiebreaker.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -4.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 17-13.
Result: Chiefs 34-14
My gut may be big, but apparently it's not very smart.

DETROIT LIONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -3.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Lions +3.5. Detroit wins outright 20-14.
Result: Lions 34-27
Knew it! Miami sucks at home.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Rams -2.5
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: 49ers +2.5. San Fran wins 26-17.
Result: Rams 25-17
San Fran is done, as well they should be. I let my desire to see a 3-way tie in the NFC West cloud my better judgement...

HOUSTON TEXANS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 24-10.
Result: Broncos 24-23
Houston should be ashamed of themselves. They were up big and blew it. Ridiculous. I really hate the Broncos...they screw me out of picks at least 10 times a season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 30-20.
Result: Colts 31-26
Oakland put up a good fight, but just couldn't get it done. It'd be funny if they won next week...they'd become the first team to ever sweep their division and still miss the playoffs!

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 23-13.
Result: Bengals 34-20
Speaking of being ashamed of themselves...At least San Diego gets to go home, sit on the couch for the next 8 months, and really let their despicable failure set in...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -5.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bucs -5.5. Tampa wins 26-14.
Result: Bucs 38-15
Tampa stays alive, but need a lot of help. Either NO or ATL will get one wild card spot, so there's only one left for the NYG, GB, and TB to fight over. Tampa has no tiebreakers, so they need BOTH of the other two teams to lose, and they'll need to get a win over NO...no easy task with the Saints fighting for the division title and a first round bye. (Note: Even if ATL wins the division, New Orleans basically gets a first-round bye...they'll be the 5-seed, and will play the 4-seed, which is going to be the winner of the NFC West. So in essence, a bye...)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 30-23.
Result: Packers 45-17
Nothing like a blowout! Green Bay is too good to miss out on the playoffs. Assuming they win this week and get in, they'll go to Philly in round one - which is a win-able game.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -15.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Eagles -15.5. Philly rolls 34-10.
Result: Vikings 24-14
Yuck. I'm blaming this one on rescheduling! Philly was too worried about having to play 3 games in 12 or 13 days and didn't seem ready for the Vikings. Plus Vick got hurt on the first play of the game...that may have affected things, too. Looks like a rematch with the Giants or Packers in round one...who would they prefer? They beat the Giants twice, but New York has to be PISSED about that last one. Green Bay beat Philly, but you have to imagine that Philly would have a better shot in round two.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Saints +2.5. New Orleans wins 31-30.
Result: Saints 17-14
Atlanta will still win the division - they play Carolina in week 17, and the Falcons haven't lost to any bad teams yet this season.

Week Sixteen Preview

2010-12-23T11:28:00.000-08:00

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -14.5
O/U: 37
There is a low of 22 in Pittsburgh tonight with a chance of flurries...if it gets snowy and slick, both teams will rely heavily on the run game. Then again, they'll both rely heavily on the run game anyway - Carolina because they have no QB, and Pittsburgh because smash-mouth football is in their nature. I'm just not sure that Pittsburgh will crush Carolina by enough points to cover, given the conditions under which they'll be playing. The problem? The last time I picked against the Steelers as a 2-touchdown favorite in cold weather for the exact same reasons, I got burned.
Playoff Implications: PIT has already clinched a playoff berth. If PIT wins and BAL loses, PIT wins AFC North. They may also clinch a bye - KC could win out to tie PIT at 11-5 (w PIT loss at CLE in week 17), but the tiebreaker with the Steelers would end up going to strength of victory, and I'm not about to figure that one out...I assume, however, that the Steelers' wins over the Falcons and Ravens would be good enough to win them the tiebreaker. So assume they clinch a bye with a win and a Ravens loss. Basically, the Steelers play the Panthers and Browns the final two weeks, so pencil them in as AFC North champs and the 2-seed.
My Pick: Panthers +14.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-13.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 45.5
I'm starting to worry that the Cowboys might pack it in, given the futility of these last few games and how little effort they expended early in the year. But the Cardinals are REALLY bad...and I honestly think most of the Cowboys are deathly afraid of Jason Garrett...it's the only explanation for their sudden burst of energy.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Cowboys -7. Dallas wins 30-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 44
I don't care how well the Bills are playing - The Pats have "had their number" for years...
Playoff Implications: New England has already clinched a playoff berth. With a win, they win the AFC East and clinch the #1-seed. If they lose, NYJ, PIT, or BAL would have to win out to tie NE, and the Pats would lose the #1 seed and the division to the Jets based on their record within the division. It seems unlikely, though...
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England rolls 34-13.

NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -1
O/U: 36.5
The Jets have played well on the road and have proven that they can win close games. I expect this to be a low-scoring defensive battle, but if the scoring gets out of control, the Jets could be in trouble.
Playoff Implications: NYJ clinch a playoff berth with a win. They can win out and have a shot at the AFC East Title and a #1-seed, but the Pats would have to lose out. CHI has already clinched their division, and are fighting with ATL/NO, and PHI for seeding. A win and a Philly loss guarantees CHI a first round bye, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles (Head-to-Head Win).
My Pick: Jets +1. New York wins 13-10.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 39.5
Cleveland tends to play hard against the Ravens (there is a lot of history there...), but with the Ravens still battling for the NFC North crown and a first-round bye, I think they'll flush the Browns pretty easily.
Playoff Implications: BAL clinches a playoff berth with a win. A win and a PIT loss puts them on top of the division and allows them to control their own destiny. Losses by JAX AND SD would also clinch a playoff spot for BAL.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 33-13.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 46
The Redskins are a mess right now. I don't care how many touchdown passes Rex Grossman had against the Cowboys - it was clearly an anomaly. Jacksonville's Pass D isn't great, but Washington's is worse. Then again, Washington beat the Titans by 3 and lost to the Colts and Texans by 3 each, so a spread of seven against the Skins' final AFC South opponent seems high.
Playoff Implications: A Jacksonville loss and an Indy win eliminates the Jags from playoff contention and gives the division to the Colts. A win and a Colts loss clinches nothing, but allows JAX to control its own destiny in week 17.
My Pick: Redskins +7. Jacksonville wins 27-24.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -4.5
O/U: 42.5
The Chiefs could (and should...) win the AFC West. They've been playing solid football, and even the Matt Cassel appendectomy barely slowed them down. Tennessee doesn't have the run defense to stop KC's attack, and despite a good performance last week, I don't think the Titans offense offers enough consistency to beat the Chiefs on the road. That said, I have a strange gut feeling on this one that I'm going to have to go with...
Playoff Implications: KC clinches the AFC West with a win and a SD loss. SD holds the tiebreaker over KC, so KC has to win out or hope for at least 1 SD loss to win the division.
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 17-13.

DETROIT LIONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Bills eliminated the Fins from the playoffs last week (haha), the Fins don't play well at home, and the Lions have beaten the spread quite a few times this year despite not having a lot to show for it at 3-11. All signs point to upset.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Lions +3.5. Detroit wins outright 20-14.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Rams -2.5
O/U: 39.5
Could the 49ers really start 1-6 and still win their division? Geez...what an awful year for the NFC West. If San Fran wins, they are tied for the division lead (assuming Seattle loses to Tampa, which is likely), and they hold the tiebreaker. So I imagine they'll be playing pretty hard. St. Louis has been solid at times, but I still think of San Fran as the underachieving team that everyone picked to win the division in the first place. So why not overcome a 1-6 start to win it anyway?
Playoff Implications: SF is eliminated with a loss. SF leads the west with a win and a Seattle loss, as they'd hold tiebreakers over STL and SEA. SEA plays STL in week 17, so unless SF wins this week and next, that game will determine who goes to the playoffs from the West.
My Pick: 49ers +2.5. San Fran wins 26-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48.5
Neither one of these teams in in great shape...I guess I have to take the Texans, simply because they have the potential to do some big things on offense.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 24-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Really? Just 3? Indy is in position to win the AFC South, despite extensive injuries and some bad losses. I can't imagine they'll blow this one. The Raiders have beaten some good teams, but I don't think they'll be surprising the Colts.
Playoff Implications: If OAK wins out AND KC loses out AND SD loses at least once, OAK wins the AFC West. A loss eliminates OAK from playoff contention. IND wins the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss. An IND loss eliminates them from wild card contention, but they could still win the division depending on what JAX does this week and next.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 30-20.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 44
No T.O. means no way. He has been their only bright spot all year long. They have too many issues to pull off a big upset against a Chargers team that still needs wins to get in the playoffs.
Playoff Implications: SD is eliminated from playoff contention if KC wins and SD loses. If both win or SD wins and KC loses, the division title will be decided in week 17, with SD holding the tiebreaker should both teams finish with identical records. If both KC AND SD lose this week, the Raiders would win the division with a victory over KC next week. Otherwise the division title would depend on what SD does in week 17.
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 23-13.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -5.5
O/U: 43.5
The Seahawks are bad on the road and the Bucs are coming off of their first bad loss of the year. They'll be amped up, and will take down the Hawks.
Playoff Implications: A TB loss and a NYG win would eliminate the Bucs. A NO win guarantees that TB is playing for the 6-seed, and fighting NYG and GB. Otherwise TB's playoff life is in the hands of distant tiebreakers, such as strength of victory. I don't think they'd beat GB or NYG on that stat, so the likely scenario for a TB playoff berth is that they'll need to win out and hope that GB beats NYG this week and that both teams lose in week 17. SEA is in a mess in the NFC West - See the STL game above for further explanation.
My Pick: Bucs -5.5. Tampa wins 26-14.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 43
This'll be a great game! Both teams are basically done with a loss, so neither can leave anything in the bag. It'd be a bigger surprise to see the Packers miss the playoffs, but the Giants have played some big games, too. After the way they lost to the Eagles last week, they'll either be extra juiced up for this game, or they'll still be down on themselves. With Rodgers back, I'm not sure it matters either way. And the Packers D has been stellar all year.
Playoff Implications: NYG are in with a win. GB is eliminated with a loss. A GB win leaves both tied at 9-6, and depending on what TB does, they could be in that mix, too. The Giants are still alive for the NFC East crown, but they'd need to win out and watch PHI lose out. So if things go according to my predictions (GB wins, TB wins...) the wild card race will be very messy, and it will all come down to week 17, and possibly some goofy tiebreaking scenarios.
My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 30-23.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -15.5
O/U: 43
This would have been one heck of a week 16 game if Minnesota had lived up to their potential. Too bad it won't be...The Vikings likely won't have Favre, and Peterson is banged up as well. The Minnesota defense has proven time and again that it can't keep the Vikings in games without help from the offense. They won't get any, and Vick won't have any mercy as he tries to get his team a first round bye.
Playoff Implications: PHI clinches the NFC East with a win. They can't clinch a bye yet due to their tie with CHI and the fact that CHI holds the tiebreaker over them. A PHI loss and a CHI win eliminates PHI from the bye discussion. A PHI loss also allows NYG to have a shot at the division if they win out and PHI loses again in week 17.
My Pick: Eagles -15.5. Philly rolls 34-10.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 48.5
This should be the best game of the week! Both teams are used to playing in domes, and I don't expect either to come out and dominate the other. It should be back-and-forth. Atlanta won in New Orleans earlier in the year - I think New Orleans will use that knowledge to fuel their effort on Monday night. The Saints will also be amped up after a loss to Baltimore last week. This division is too good not to go down to the final weekend!
Playoff Implications: ATL wins the division and the #1-seed with a win. ATL has already clinched a playoff berth. NO has to win out and watch ATL lose out to win the division. NO clinches a playoff berth with a win.
My Pick: Saints +2.5. New Orleans wins 31-30.

Week Fifteen Recap

2010-12-21T13:36:00.001-08:00

Week Fifteen Picks: 11-5

Week Fifteen ATS: 11-5

Overall Picks: 145-79

Overall ATS: 121-98-5

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -9.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chargers -9.5. San Diego rolls 33-16.

Result: Chargers 34-7

Close enough. That one was predictable...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -1.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Ravens -1.5. Baltimore wins 20-17.

Result: Ravens 30-24

A little less Baltimore defense than I expected, but they still pulled it out. This could be a Super Bowl preview, depending on how the playoffs shake out.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Panthers -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Cards +2.5. Arizona wins 23-20.

Result: Panthers 19-12

I never should have picked the Cards to do anything positive on the East Coast.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -1.5

O/U: 40

My Pick: Bengals -1.5. Cincy wins 23-20.

Result: Bengals 19-17

The Bengals made that one a little too close for comfort! TO's injury would have been devastating if Cincy wasn't already irrelevant...

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -5.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Cowboys -5.5. Dallas wins 27-13.

Result: Cowboys 33-30

Really Dallas? You let Rex Grossman throw 4 TD passes against your defense? Wow.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5

O/U: 48.5

My Pick: Colts -5. Indy shows why they've won the AFC South 6 of the last 7 years with a 34-14 drubbing of the Jags.

Result: Colts 34-24

The Jags stayed with the Colts better than I expected. Thank goodness for that awful onside kick that was easily returned for a TD - otherwise the Colts would have killed the clock and I wouldn't have beaten the spread!

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -5.5

O/U: 40

My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo wins outright 17-13.

Result: Bills 17-14

One point off - Pretty darn good. Never go against the Bills beating the Fins at least once a year...we hate them like Cornell hates Harvard (Ok, maybe not quite THAT much...but I did have a "run-in" with a drunk Dolphins fan in the bathroom of Shula's steakhouse and bar when I was 19...let's just say it was pretty solid evidence that there is no love lost between the Bills and Fins)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -2.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Giants -2.5. NY wins 23-20.

Result: Eagles 38-31

Well worth it. I'll take that loss - I was laughing my butt off when Jackson picked up that ball and shot right up the middle toward the endzone...you just kinda had the feeling it would happen! Note: I was also laughing during both big Vick runs late in the game, and when the Eagles executed that stellar onside kick. At that time, however, I still thought I was going to win the game against the spread...

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Chiefs win 24-13.

Result: Chiefs 27-13

Not bad! I'm having a good week...

DETROIT LIONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -6

O/U: 43

My Pick: Lions +6. Bucs win 20-17.

Result: Lions 23-20 (ot)

ANOTHER 23-20 overtime game! Look back at the schedule - you'll be amazed at how many times this has been the final score of an NFL Overtime game in 2010. I didn't call the Lions to win, but I should have - I knew they'd play the Bucs tough.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -1.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Texans +1.5. Houston wins 34-23.

Result: Titans 31-17

I thought the Texans would be fighting against the Titans, and not against each other!

ATLANTA FALCONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Falcons -6

O/U: 45

My Pick: Falcons -6. Atlanta rolls 34-10.

Result: Falcons 34-18

Atlanta is a solid football team...their consistency is phenomenal...but can they win the big game in the playoffs? We'll find out...

DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -6.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Broncos +6.5. Denver wins outright 23-20.

Result: Raiders 39-23

I forgot the Denver "catch-22"! Denver screws me over a lot, so I tend to pick against my gut when it comes to the Broncos. What I forgot was that no matter what I pick Denver to do, they'll do the opposite. So it had nothing to do with going against my gut...I was bound to lose this one either way.

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -6

O/U: 36

My Pick: Jets +6. New York wins outright 19-17.

Result: Jets 22-17

The Jets still haven't shown much offensively...thank goodness for Brad Smith! They better figure things out before the playoffs. In the playoffs, defense becomes even more important, so if they can get a serviceable effort from the offense by then, they could contend in the AFC - As long as they don't lay an egg against the Pats again!

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -14

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Pats win 30-17.

Result: Pats 31-27

Wow am I lucky! I picked the Pats to win by 13 before I knew the spread, and as it turns out, the spread was 14 - So I got a freebie! The Packers may miss the playoffs...Yikes! I didn't see that one coming.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Bears -5.5

O/U: 34

My Pick: Bears 21-6.

Result: Bears 40-14

Ok then...Do the Vikings have a defense anymore? I thought that was their strong suit...no matter how bad Favre and/or Jackson and/or That other QB who I don't know plays, the Vikings' D and Adrian Peterson should have been able to keep them in games this year. It just hasn't happened. Quite the difficult year in Minnesota - Even their stadium couldn't make it through unscathed!

Week Fifteen Preview

2010-12-16T13:30:00.000-08:00

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -9.5
O/U: 44.5
Both teams will be treating this game as a must win, but I still don't think it'll be that close. Alex Smith put up 40 points last week - There's no way the 49ers will keep the offense chugging along at that pace. While their offense struggles, their defense will be finding out that they aren't strong enough to keep up with the Chargers pass game. This combination of offensive and defensive ineptitude should result in a comfortable Chargers win.
My Pick: Chargers -9.5. San Diego rolls 33-16.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -1.5
O/U: 43.5
The Ravens didn't look very good last week against the Texans, blowing a huge lead and winning in overtime against a Houston team that has been struggling defensively. If the Ravens secondary allows Brees to pick them apart the way Schaub did, it'll be a long afternoon in Baltimore. The Saints have been getting better and better, and could make some noise in the playoffs once again. The way the NFC South title has historically bounced around, however, I think it's the Falcons' year to take down the division. Whether or not the Falcons win their head-to-head match-up with the Saints next week remains to be seen - but I think it's likely that they'll be two games ahead after this weekend, as Baltimore's defense will undoubtedly rebound from a poor showing last Monday night.
My Pick: Ravens -1.5. Baltimore wins 20-17.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Panthers -2.5
O/U: 38
Like the rest of America, I don't care about this game at all...I'd pick the Panthers, but it seems ridiculous that they'd be favored, at 1-12, to beat a team that put up 43 points last week. So I have to go against them, even though the Cards play like idiots every time they venture to the East Coast.
My Pick: Cards +2.5. Arizona wins 23-20.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Bengals -1.5
O/U: 40
It's the "who cares" bowl! The Bengals stink - unless they're playing the Ravens, they'll lose. Then again, the Ravens used to be the Browns...
My Pick: Bengals -1.5. Cincy wins 23-20.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -5.5
O/U: 46
The Cowboys are playing for pride, and have been ever since Jason Garrett became their surprisingly effective coach. The Redskins have some major issues, and I just don't think they care as much as the Cowboys do right now. Six weeks ago I never thought I'd construct such a sentence...when they were at the peak of their despair, the Cowboys cared less than every other team in football. At any level.
My Pick: Cowboys -5.5. Dallas wins 27-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 48.5
Peyton Manning's back is up against the wall...A loss all but dooms his season. What do you think will happen?
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy shows why they've won the AFC South 6 of the last 7 years with a 34-14 drubbing of the Jags.

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -5.5
O/U: 40
My former radio show producer - An enormous Bills fan - Predicted 4 Buffalo wins this season, noting that Miami would be one of them. Who am I to disagree?
My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo wins outright 17-13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 46
The Eagles played a very complete game against the Giants a few weeks ago...I'm not sure they can live up to that standard again. New York is solid, but inconsistent. I worry about them more in games against lesser opposition, however, than I do when emotions are high and there is a great deal at stake. This game falls into the latter category. Plus, all else equal, NFC East teams tend to split their season series.
My Pick: Giants -2.5. NY wins 23-20.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
If Croyle plays again, the Chiefs could be in trouble. I think Cassel will be back, though, and after last week's embarrassment the Chiefs will be ready to play. Cassel can be 80% and still win...it's having the appearance of a decent pass game that frees up the KC running backs, which is where all of their offense comes from anyway.
My Pick: Chiefs win 24-13.

DETROIT LIONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -6
O/U: 43
Detroit just beat Green Bay...that's the better of the "Bays"...I think Tampa will win, as they haven't lost to any bad teams yet this season, but I don't think it'll be by 6. If Stanton plays instead of Hill, though, expect Tampa to have a better shot at beating the spread.
My Pick: Lions +6. Bucs win 20-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -1.5
O/U: 47.5
The Texans played pretty well against the Ravens last week, and the Titans are still a mess. Collins gives them a shot to win, but I'm not sure that defense will be able to stop Schaub. The Ravens couldn't stop them...do you really think the Titans can?
My Pick: Texans +1.5. Houston wins 34-23.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 45
If this isn't a blowout the Falcons should be ashamed of themselves.
My Pick: Falcons -6. Atlanta rolls 34-10.

DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Raiders -6.5
O/U: 43
Denver is in disrepair - but that's the sort of team the Raiders generally find a way to lose to. I hate to do this, but I've learned from 3 seasons of Broncos ridiculousness. If it looks like the Broncos have no shot, they'll probably win.
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. Denver wins outright 23-20.

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -6
O/U: 36
Easy pick. The Steelers are good and the Jets have been struggling. But I wouldn't give ANY team 6 points when playing a Rex Ryan-coached squad coming off of two losses.
My Pick: Jets +6. New York wins outright 19-17.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
Even if Rodgers plays, these Pats look eerily similar to the really good Pats from a few years ago, in that they're the top scoring team in the NFL and seem to be blowing everyone out. It took them some time to hit their stride, but I think they're a strong Super Bowl contender at this point in the season. Green Bay is dangerously close to missing the playoffs...if Rodgers plays they have a shot; if Flynn plays they'll be blown out.
My Pick: Pats win 30-17.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
Three line-less games in one week? This is absurd. Minnesota will be playing their first outdoor home game in a very long time, and they're playing a defense-and-rushing-minded Bears squad that is not only good, but knows how to play in the elements. Plus they might be starting someone I've never heard of at QB. That's even worse than starting Tarvaris Jackson!
My Pick: Bears 21-6.

Week Fourteen Recap

2010-12-14T09:38:00.001-08:00

Week Fourteen Picks: 12-4
Week Fourteen ATS: 9-7
Overall Picks: 134-74
Overall ATS: 110-93-5

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-10.
Result: Colts 30-28
Tennessee HAD to score with no time left on the clock...I'm sure a lot of people lost a lot of money on that useless touchdown. Stupid Titans.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Bills -1
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Bills -1. Buffalo wins 17-10.
Result: Bills 13-6
Yay! My Bills found a way to get win #3...and I called it!

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Falcons -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta wins 27-13.
Result: Falcons 31-10
Atlanta has beaten all of the teams they were supposed to beat...which can't be said of certain NFL powerhouses (I'm looking at you, New England...)

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay wins 28-20.
Result: Lions 7-3
It's tough to predict a major injury...But I really thought the Lions would keep it close, and should have picked them to cover. I just didn't trust Drew Stanton.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -3.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Jaguars -3.5. Jacksonville wins 20-10.
Result: Jaguars 38-31
I'm glad MJD broke that big TD run late - if he hadn't, the Jags likely would have ended up with a field goal, which would have cost me the win by half a point.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -2.5. New York wins 23-20.
Result: Giants 21-3
Favre didn't play, which explains the lack of Vikings points. It's too bad Favre came back...he'd have been better off staying home this season and going out on a much higher note.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -8.5
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Steelers -8.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.
Result: Steelers 23-7
Special thanks to Carson Palmer for throwing two pick-6's...The Steelers wouldn't have had any touchdowns without Carson's help, and I'd have lost this one against the rather large spread!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Bucs -1.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bucs -1.5. Tampa wins 23-20.
Result: Bucs 17-16
I needed Washington to hit that extra point so that Tampa could win it in OT...How do you screw that up?

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -9
O/U: 47
My Pick: Saints -9. New orleans wins 45-20.
Result: Saints 31-13
The Saints are good again...if they can beat the Falcons and win the South, they could get home field throughout, which would certainly help them in the quest to repeat as champs.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Seahawks +5.5. Seattle wins outright 23-20.
Result: 49ers 40-21
How did the 49ers score 40 points with Alex Smith at QB? I guess Seattle really is that much worse on the road...

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears +3. Chicago wins 20-17.
Result: Pats 36-7
My initial reaction to all the talk about this being a close game was to pick the Pats to win it in a landslide...but after seeing the weather forecast, it seemed unlikely that either team would score many points. So much for that idea...

DENVER BRONCOS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cardinals +5.5. Arizona wins outright 23-17.
Result: Cards 43-13
I was right - Denver's coaching change did not inspire the team like the changes in Dallas and Minnesota did. Still...how did the Cardinals score 43 points? Their offense has been awful!

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Jets -5. New York rolls 31-13.
Result: Dolphins 10-6
It's time for some damage control in NYC - The Jets had been a stellar bounce-back team before this game, which is why I never even considered the thought that they'd lose. There are issues in NY, and the Jets better figure them out quick - because the Pats are looking pretty good.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 26-17.
Result: Chargers 31-0
Kansas City minus Matt Cassel equals Syracuse University? The Chiefs looked like they were in a different class against San Diego, and Brodie Croyle was useless. Get well soon Matt Cassel!

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Eagles -3.5
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Eagles -3.5. Philly wins 31-21.
Result: Eagles 30-27
I hate losing to the spread by a half point - and it happened twice this week! Had the Cowboys not scored that late TD, I would have been darn close to an exact pick. Stupid Cowboys...

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore takes out some frustration with a 34-13 romp.
Result: Ravens 34-28 (ot)
Thank you Schaub - Your overtime pick-6 ensured a win when I thought all hope was lost! Had he not thrown that awful pass off his back foot, the Texans may have scored. And if not, the Ravens likely would have gotten only a field goal coming back the other way, and I would have ended up with a push against the spread. Nobody likes ties...

Week Fourteen Preview

2010-12-09T09:08:00.000-08:00

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 45
Tennessee is a mess right now, and I don't see the Colts dropping to 6-7. Peyton has to lead his team to four straight wins to have a legitimate shot of getting into the playoffs, and if you've ever seen Peyton play, you know he's capable of anything. It's been a rough year, but I expect them to fight and claw til the very end.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-10.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Bills -1
O/U: 39.5
Both of these teams have been playing solid football. Cleveland beat Miami and New England, and nearly tied the Jets before Holmes broke a tackle to win it late in OT. Buffalo should respond from a poor performance in Minnesota. Despite their strength against the AFC East, I think the Bills will play harder with a bounce-back mentality than the Browns will coming off a big win. It'd also be funny if the Bills were the one team in the AFC East that the Browns couldn't compete with...
My Pick: Bills -1. Buffalo wins 17-10.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Falcons -7
O/U: 42.5
Yes, the Falcons had a bit of a hiccup last week against a Tampa team that hasn't really beaten anyone. But Atlanta still pulled it out in the end, which is what matters. They've been quite consistent, and haven't lost to any craptastic teams all season long. I don't expect them to start now.
My Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta wins 27-13.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 46
Don't the oddsmakers remember the last time these teams met? Detroit only lost by two, and that was at Lambeau. The Lions will be ready to play, but can Drew Stanton run the offense if Matt Stafford and Shaun Hill are both out? He certainly has all the tools to succeed...The Packers beat up on the 49ers last week, but I don't think they'll slack off just because they won big - Green Bay remembers how close the Lions came to beating them last time, and the Packers, at 8-4, need wins to ensure a postseason spot. They finish with the Pats, Giants, and Bears, so this game is virtually a must-win.
My Pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay wins 28-20.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -3.5
O/U: 43
The Raiders have to travel all the way across the country, and they've only won 2 road games all year (and have played awful east of the Mississippi River - @PIT and @TEN) but after beating the Chargers twice, I think they're more legit than the Jags. Then again, I've been under-rating Jacksonville all year, and they keep biting me...
My Pick: Jaguars -3.5. Jacksonville wins 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 43
The Vikings have a lot of banged up bodies, including Favre. They will come out strong because it's a must-win for them, but I just don't know if they'll be able to get it done. If Brett tries to play, it'll either be a disaster or one of his brilliant "signature" performances. I'd bet on him playing, but he just doesn't seem to have the same magic this season...
My Pick: Giants -2.5. New York wins 23-20.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -8.5
O/U: 39.5
This seems like one of those games when the Bengals will step up and lose by a lot less than everyone thinks...they've had some issues, but they're really not as bad as their record indicates - they just can't seem to put it all together and win games. Heck, they beat the Ravens earlier in the year! Pittsburgh is too strong, and I'm sure they'll get the win - I just don't know if they'll win by 8 1/2...
My Pick: Steelers -8.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Bucs -1.5
O/U: 41
Wow...there are a lot of mental issues with this game, making it insanely hard to predict. The Skins have been dealing with a lot of B.S. surrounding Haynesworth, so they may not be completely focused. Their offense has also looked pretty bad since Shanahan and McNabb had their little issue before the bye week. Then again, they're an underdog at home to the Bucs, which might motivate them. The Bucs haven't really beaten anyone good, but thankfully for Tampa fans, Washington doesn't fall into that category...In the end, my analysis rests not on the fact that Tampa hasn't beat anyone solid, but on the fact that they haven't lost to anyone who stinks. And right now, Washington stinks.
My Pick: Bucs -1.5. Tampa wins 23-20.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -9
O/U: 47
The Rams have shown some excellent fight this season, but New Orleans has been playing pretty well as of late. The X-factor is that this is New Orleans' only home game in a 5 week stretch (2 away, 1 home, then 2 away), so I imagine they'd like to show off for their fantastic fans...this one could get ugly in a hurry!
My Pick: Saints -9. New orleans wins 45-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 41.5
Alex Smith is starting at QB for the 49ers...how in the world are they favored by 5.5!? I know Seattle is better at home than on the road, but they've beaten the Bears and Cards away from Qwest field...I certainly think they can take down the 49ers. I'm sure San Fran wants payback for the Seahawks' domination of them in week one, but even a positive mental focus doesn't seem to be helping San Fran in 2010.
My Pick: Seahawks +5.5. Seattle wins outright 23-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41
The Pats won't look as good against the Bears as they did on Monday Night against the Jets, but that doesn't mean they can't win. The short week of preparation will hurt the Pats' ability to break through a very good defense that is a bit different from the stellar defense they ripped apart last week, and I'm not sure if the Pats will be able to shut down Cutler the same way they shut down Sanchez.
My Pick: Bears +3. Chicago wins 20-17.

DENVER BRONCOS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 42.5
The Cowboys and Vikings have each been better since firing their respective head coaches. I don't think Denver will respond the same way those other teams did. Arizona is awful, but they certainly have the ability to win in their own building. It seems insane to me that Denver is so highly favored in this situation.
My Pick: Cardinals +5.5. Arizona wins outright 23-17.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 40
Rex Ryan doesn't take embarassment lightly. Even though Miami will be trying to bounce back from a bad home loss to the Browns, the Jets' bounce back ability is second to none. They'll crush the fins.
My Pick: Jets -5. New York rolls 31-13.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 46.5
Kansas City is for real, but with Cassel coming back from an appendectomy, I'm not sure what they'll have to offer on offense. I expect San Diego to come out firing after a bad home loss to Oakland, and I don't know that KC can keep up.
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 26-17.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Eagles -3.5
O/U: 50.5
Dallas has gotten better, but Philly looks awfully good. I can't imagine the Cowboys will have an answer for Vick, and Kitna is due to have a bad game.
My Pick: Eagles -3.5. Philly wins 31-21.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 45.5
Had Baltimore beaten the Steelers, I'd have expected Houston to have a chance. Now that this is a bounce-back game for Baltimore, Houston is screwed.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore takes out some frustration with a 34-13 romp.

Week Thirteen Recap

2010-12-08T10:48:00.001-08:00

Week Twelve Picks: 11-5
Week Thirteen ATS: 9-7
Overall Picks: 122-70
Overall ATS: 101-86-5

HOUSTON TEXANS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -8
O/U: 51
My Pick: Texans +8. Philly wins 38-33.
Result: Eagles 34-24
The Eagles had to score that extra touchdown late...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-17.
Result: Saints 34-30
The Saints didn't play well enough defensively to win this game decisively. I'm sure they'll be better next week - they're a solid bounce-back team.

CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago wins 27-23.
Result: Bears 24-20
I was pretty much dead on with this pick...the Lions are a solid team, but the Bears are legitimately good this year.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -9
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -9. Green Bay rolls 34-17.
Result: Packers 34-16
It wasn't looking good early, but the Packers turned it on and pulled away from the 49ers. One point from an exact pick...nice!

DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -9
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Broncos +9. Kansas City wins 20-19
Result: Chiefs 10-6
I knew the Chiefs wouldn't blow out Denver, but for the Broncos to score only 6 points against a defense they dismantled the first time around is pretty bad. No wonder McDaniels is gone.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -4.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Dolphins -4.5. Miami wins 30-13.
Result: Browns 13-10
Apparently I forgot how bad the Dolphins offense was...yikes!

BUFFALO BILLS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -5.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo loses another close game 17-13.
Result: Vikings 38-14
I picked the Bills to win, so it's no wonder that they were blown out for the first time in over a month...

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Redskins +7. Giants win 20-17.
Result: Giants 31-7
Glad to see the Redskins decided to show up...

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -2
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -2. Tennessee wins 20-13.
Result: Jaguars 17-6
Hindsight is 20/20 - In hindsight, I'm an idiot. The Jags are playing well, the Titans aren't. But there is a lot of talent in Tennessee - I think I'm still thinking of them as the team that crushed the Giants, and not as the team that can't beat the Jaguars...

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -12.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Raiders +12.5. San Diego wins 34-24.
Result: Raiders 28-13
So the AFC West isn't cut-and-dry after all...Go Chiefs!

ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.
Result: Falcons 28-24
I'm glad this spread wasn't bigger...Tampa really gave the Falcons a game! Coaching has made all the difference in KC and Tampa this year - these teams stunk last year, but now, with a little confidence, they're both quite dangerous. The Chiefs moreso than the Bucs, as Tampa really doesn't have any quality wins.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Rams -3.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Cards +3.5. Arizona wins outright 23-20.
Result: Rams 19-6
Glad I continue to have no faith in the Rams...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Cowboys +5.5. Indy wins 30-28.
Result: Cowboys 38-35 (ot)
Dallas is a LOT better under Garrett. And Indy is really struggling...they might miss the playoffs!

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Seahawks -6
O/U: 40
My Pick: Seahawks -6. Seattle rolls the Panthers 33-13.
Result: Seahawks 31-14
Again, dead on. Seattle is predictable at home against crappy teams...somehow they manage to make themselves look decent.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers +3. Pittsburgh wins 17-13.
Result: Steelers 13-10
Called it. Big Ben doesn't lose to the Ravens.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Pats -3. New England wins 24-20.
Result: Pats 45-3
I don't think anyone called the score, but the Pats' victory doesn't surprise me. Belichick is a genius when he has extra time to game plan, Brady doesn't lose at home, and the two together never get swept in a season. It was the perfect storm - they were bound to win.

Week Thirteen Preview

2010-12-02T07:09:00.000-08:00

HOUSTON TEXANS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -8

O/U: 51

I'm not sure how to call this game...on one hand, Houston is the type of team I expect to hover around .500 all season long, and at 5-6, a loss makes them much less likely to hit 8-8 by the end of the season. On the other hand, they've been horribly inconsistent and have showed very little defensively, which doesn't bode well for a team that's about to face Michael Vick. Especially after the Eagles' loss to the Bears last week. The Eagles' D wasn't great against the Bears, and although I expect them to step up against the Texans, Houston is dangerous enough to turn this game into a shootut. Philly may win by a lot, but I think the odds are in favor of it being a bit closer.

My Pick: Texans +8. Philly wins 38-33.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 46

Cincy plays well against certain teams (i.e. the Ravens...), but I don't think New Orleans is the type of team they'll be able to keep it close against. Bush is back, and I expect him to see quite a few more touches this week. The Saints looked dominant at times (seemingly whenever they needed to...) on Thanksgiving, and I think they have the ability to dominate on a more consistent basis. They just need to remain focused on the task at hand. Hopefully they'll be focused this week.

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-17.

CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 44.5

The Lions owe the Bears a little payback after apparent victory slipped through their fingers in week one. The Bears have become a very solid team, however, and I'm not sure if the Lions, at least without Stafford, will be able to keep up offensively.

My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago wins 27-23.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -9

O/U: 41.5

The 49ers played well against the NFC North last season, which is why this isn't an open-and-shut pick for me. San Fran has been downright awful this season, though...after being blown out by the Bucs, I'm not sure why I'd expect them to hang around with a very good Packers squad. Note: If I'm wrong on this one, it's because I followed by brain and not my gut...

My Pick: Packers -9. Green Bay rolls 34-17.

DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -9

O/U: 48.5

Kansas City got CRUSHED a few weeks ago at Denver...why the sudden change? Denver has some issues to deal with, especially the off-the-field discussions about their head coach's future with the team, but after such a solid effort against the Chiefs at home, I don't see a KC blowout. Then again, it is the AFC west...weird things tend to happen in home-and-home series in that division...

My Pick: Broncos +9. Kansas City wins 20-19

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -4.5

O/U: 43

Miami stinks at home and Cleveland has been playing pretty solid football lately, especially against the AFC East. Despite the possibility of a Browns win, I'm going with the Dolphins for 2 reasons: 1. They don't want to be left out of the AFC East discussion; 2. It's time for a DelHomme game! Every season I pick a game where I think DelHomme will get careless and throw 4 picks...this is the one!

My Pick: Dolphins -4.5. Miami wins 30-13.

BUFFALO BILLS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -5.5

O/U: 45

Nobody...circles the Wagons...Like the Buffalo Bills! B-Lo has been playing great football lately. They're one of the best 2-9 teams I've ever seen. Minnesota is going to have their hands full, especially given how much they've struggled lately. AP is a last-minute decision, which means that even if he does play, he'll be banged up. Jairus Bird has 0 INTs this season, after showing some excellent ball-hawk skills last year. If Favre gets careless (which he usually does at least a few times each game...), the Bills will make him pay. Never bet against the team with more "fight" in them...

My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo loses another close game 17-13.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 43.5

There are a lot of question marks going into this game...with NY's top two receivers out, will they be forced to run Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw too much? Can the Skins key on the run and stop the G-men? Their run defense hasn't exactly been stellar. Odds are that this will be a typical NFC East slugfest...not a Giants blowout.

My Pick: Redskins +7. Giants win 20-17.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -2

O/U: 41.5

Tennessee was awful with that Rusty guy playing QB...thankfully Collins is back, and they're playing a divisional rival - which means they'll be ready to play. Jacksonville has shown some fight this season, but I still don't think they're as good as their record indicates. The Jags only managed 3 points against Tennessee the first time around...The Titans' D hasn't had any issues...Still the same bunch...that doesn't bode well for the Jags.

My Pick: Titans -2. Tennessee wins 20-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -12.5

O/U: 45

The Chargers are likely looking for payback after losing to the Raiders in Oakland earlier in the year. Oakland has had a history of being blown out in San Diego, but this year's team seems a bit different...they tend to play well against their best opposition. They also scored 35 on the Bolts in round one, and I'd expect them to be able to put up a decent total once again. Which means the odds favor a closer-than-2-touchdowns game.

My Pick: Raiders +12.5. San Diego wins 34-24.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 44.5

The Falcons have been very consistent all year long, losing only to their toughest opposition. Tampa is not included in that demographic.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Rams -3.5

O/U: 43

After being embarassed on Monday Night, I expect the Cards to show a little fight against the Rams. St. Louis has been pretty solid, but they're still not good enough to be a sure thing on the road in the desert.

My Pick: Cards +3.5. Arizona wins outright 23-20.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 47.5

At this point in the season, I have to take both of these teams for what they truly are. In the pre-season, this could have been seen as a potential Super Bowl preview. Now it's a battle between two teams that may not even be in the playoffs. Dallas kept it close against a solid Saints team, and I think they're playing well enough to stay in the game against Indy as well.

My Pick: Cowboys +5.5. Indy wins 30-28.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Seahawks -6

O/U: 40

Seattle has been good at home, and Carolina is having trouble with just about everything. Seattle has dropped 2 straight, and is hungry for a win - expect them to get it.

My Pick: Seahawks -6. Seattle rolls the Panthers 33-13.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40

It's always a dogfight when these two teams come together. Both defenses will put on a show. My issue is with Roethlisberger...he's banged up, so my first thought is that he won't be as effective as he usually is. But I am also aware that the Steelers are 5-0 against the Ravens with Ben since '07 and 0-3 without him...those numbers make me want to side with the Steelers. Keep in mind that the Steelers lost to the Ravens earlier in the year as well...Pittsburgh is not and easy team to sweep...

My Pick: Steelers +3. Pittsburgh wins 17-13.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3

O/U: 45.5

The Jets won round one and haven't swept the Pats in 10 years. They've also been playing a lot of tight games lately, save for the one against Cincy on Thanksgiving. New England is strong, but are they strong enough to win the division? The team that wins this game has a projected 80% chance of winning the AFC East. The Jets seem to find a way to get wins every week, and though they've played some close games against questionable teams, the Pats LOST to the Browns. Yes New England, I am going to hold that against you for the rest of the season. In the end, the one thing that most influences my decision is the Pats' ability to shut down the Jets offense in the first half of game one. Belichick will know exactly what they did to stop Sanchez, and will employ that strategy throughout the game on Monday Night. I expect Sanchez to have a very mediocre game.

My Pick: Pats -3. New England wins 24-20.

NFL Week Twelve Recap

2010-11-30T10:28:00.000-08:00

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Pats -6.5

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Lions +6.5. New England wins 23-20.

Result: Pats 45-24

I looked like a genius until the fourth quarter. Apparently the Lions only had 45 minutes of decent football in them.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Saints -4.5

O/U: 49.5

My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans wins 31-19.

Result: Saints 30-27

The Saints didn't use Reggie Bush enough. It was almost like he was out there as a decoy. No wonder the Cowboys had the opportunity to come back.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -9

O/U: 43

My Pick: Bengals +9. New York wins 20-17.

Result: Jets 26-10

So NOW the Jets decide to beat someone handily. Jerks.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 20-13.

Result: Falcons 20-17

I was very close on this one. No surprise that the Packers defense was solid, nor that the Falcons were still solid enough to pull out a win. Could the Falcons go 13-3? It seems crazy, but their remaining schedule is pretty darn easy, and they are playing very consistent football.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Browns -9.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Panthers +9.5. Cleveland wins 20-17.

Result: Browns 24-23

Again, close to perfect on the pick. But after my Thanksgiving Day meltdown, my record for this week is destined to be in the toilet.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 44

My Pick: Giants -7. New York rolls 33-10.

Result: Giants 24-20

I'm starting to wonder if the Jags are for real. Thankfully I'm well aware that the Giants are worse than advertised, which accounts for the close game. But I do need to be careful, because with the Jags' confidence level riding high, they could be dangerous.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Steelers -6.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Steelers -6.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-14.

Result: Steelers 19-16 (ot)

The Bills are playing everyone close right now...until I pick them to do so and they have a monumental collapse and a 20 point loss...

TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -6

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 31-13.

Result: Texans 20-0

I knew that new Titans QB was a nobody...guess we'll never see him again...

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota wins 24-16.

Result: Vikings 17-13

Still not what I expected out of the Vikings, but a win's a win. Why do they still suck? It makes no sense to me...The defense alone should be able to carry that team to victories.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 23-17.

Result: Dolphins 33-17

Miami finally pulled away. Oakland is not for real. Surprise, surprise.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Chiefs -2

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chiefs -2. KC Wins 30-20.

Result: Chiefs 42-24

KC needed another blowout win. How bad is the NFC West? 13 of their 17 total wins have either been against each other or against the AFC West, which is also awful. The 7-9 team that wins the NFC West will lose by 20 in the first round of the playoffs. They may as well give the 5-seed a bye...

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-14.

Result: Bears 31-26

I forgot the Bears had an offense and the Eagles' D was inconsistent.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens 7.5

O/U: 42

My Pick: Ravens -7.5. Baltimore wins 30-10.

Result: Ravens 17-10

Damn garbage time touchdowns.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -3.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver wins 20-16.

Result: Rams 36-33

Denver stinks, but thank goodness for the garbage time TD that helped them beat the spread!

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 31-28.

Result: Chargers 36-14

Umm...my bad...I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around Indy being a middle-of-the-road team...

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: 49ers -1

O/U: 40

My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran wins 20-17.

Result: 49ers 27-6

Even the 49ers can blow out the Cards. That's a sign that change is needed...

NFL Week Twelve Preview

2010-11-25T07:25:00.001-08:00

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Pats -6.5

O/U: 50.5

The Lions have been a pretty solid opponent, usually play hard on Thanksgiving, and have beaten the spread quite a few times this year. The Pats lost big on the road at Cleveland, and though they've beaten some good teams, they haven't played many laughers. I worry that they play down to the competition.

My Pick: Lions +6.5. New England wins 23-20.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Saints -4.5

O/U: 49.5

The Saints have been very up-and-down this season, so this is actually a tough choice. Dallas is 2-0 under Garrett, and seems to be playing with more heart. I expect them to view Thanksgiving as a chance to redeem themselves in front of the fans. But Nawlins should still be good enough to shut em down.

My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans wins 31-19.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -9

O/U: 43

No explanation needed - this spread is just too big. Cincy blows, but they're still a professional football team. They have the talent to keep the game close. The Jets have 2 OT wins and a last-second TD pass win in their last 3 games. I'm not predicting a blowout.

My Pick: Bengals +9. New York wins 20-17.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1.5

O/U: 47.5

Green Bay has won two blowouts in a row, and may come in overconfident. Atlanta is a good team, and will beat the Packers if Green Bay doesn't show up with its A-game.

My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 20-13.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Browns -9.5

O/U: 37.5

Easy pick. Carolina is bad, but Cleveland isn't particularly good. They're also starting DelHomme, which could result in 4 INTs and a loss to Carolina. There is no way I can give 9 and a half points to the Browns. Ever.

My Pick: Panthers +9.5. Cleveland wins 20-17.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 44

Few teams need a win like the Giants do...they were being touted as one of the league's best teams, and after two division losses now find themselves at 6-4. The Giants have the D-line to keep Garrard off his game, and Eli should be able to have his way with the Jags' secondary. The Jags have no business being above .500, and need to return to earth.

My Pick: Giants -7. New York rolls 33-10.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Steelers -6.5

O/U: 43.5

Buffalo is on a winning streak, so the Steelers better watch out! Just kidding. They're still the Bills.

My Pick: Steelers -6.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-14.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -6

O/U: 46.5

Both of these teams have fallen on some hard times. The Titans looked phenomenal earlier in the season, but are now losers of 3 straight. The Texans have lost 4 in a row after a solid start, including a win over the Colts on opening day. I expected the Texans to end up around .500 again, but am having trouble seeing that now. The Titans have had a lot of off the field press, and it seems to be hurting their focus. And now, after all the craziness, Rusty Smith is listed as starting QB in Tennessee...who?

My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 31-13.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44

Like the Cowboys, I think the Vikings will respond well under their new coach. Favre doesn't have to worry about the distraction of not being on the same page with Childress, and he knows Fraser is committed to him.

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota wins 24-16.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 38

Either I am going to learn something this week, or the oddsmakers are crazy. Miami is underachieving at 5-5, and is looking for some wins to get back into the playoff conversation. They also play better on the road. I know the Raiders did some impressive things a few weeks ago, but I'm not sold. It seems odd that they'd be favored, even with Miami's long trip across the country.

My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 23-17.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Chiefs -2

O/U: 44.5

This is another game that KC needs to win if we are going to consider them a legitimate contender. I certainly think they can bring home the W, but they better not underestimate the Seahawks, who play much better at home.

My Pick: Chiefs -2. KC Wins 30-20.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 43

The schedulers have outdone themselves. Last week Vick was put up against a very good D-line in New York. This week he goes to Chicago to take on another very good defense. It'll be interesting to see how he picks apart the Bears...

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-14.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens 7.5

O/U: 42

I guess the oddsmakers don't respect Tampa's 7-3 record either!

My Pick: Ravens -7.5. Baltimore wins 30-10.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -3.5

O/U: 44.5

I'm tempted to pick the Rams, simply because they know how to win. But in Denver, with the thinner air, strange things tend to happen.

My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver wins 20-16.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 50.5

Ladies and gentlemen, your 6-5 Indianapolis Colts! See, it just doesn't sound right. I know Rivers has been playing well, but on future record alone I just don't see the Colts losing. They've also had good success against the Bolts in Indy.

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 31-28.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: 49ers -1

O/U: 40

Maybe I'm doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result - which is, incidentally, the definition of stupid - but I think Troy Smith gives the 49ers an option that they can win with. I don't know that they will, but they certainly can. And Arizona is atrocious.

My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran wins 20-17.

NFL Week Eleven Recap

2010-11-25T07:23:00.000-08:00

CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -2.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Bears +2.5. Chicago wins 20-10.

Result: Bears 16-0

See? Told you Thigpen was not the second coming of Marino.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -7

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Texans +7. Houston wins 17-13.

Result: Jets 30-27

The Jets love playing close games. But they're 9-2, so can the fans really complain?

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -7

O/U: 44

My Pick: Titans -7. Tennessee rolls 31-20.

Result: Skins 19-16 (ot)

Tennessee became awful overnight. I think it's all the Vince Young drama. At one point he was the league's top-rated passer. Now he's a distraction again. Go figure.

BUFFALO BILLS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Bills +5. Buffalo gets its first road win 17-14.

Result: Bills 49-31

There are certain things is life that you should never be ashamed of. Letting the Bills drop 49 points on you, including 35 in the second half after trailing 31-14, isn't one of them.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jaguars -1.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Browns +1.5. Cleveland wins 23-20.

Result: Jaguars 24-20

The Jags are the worst 6-4 team I have seen in a long time...

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 23-17.

Result: Packers 31-3

So much for Favre beating the Packers in his last career start against them.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -7

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh wins 27-10.

Result: Steelers 35-3

Surprise, surprise. The Raiders aren't for real. Who saw that coming?

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Ravens -10.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore wins 37-10.

Result: Ravens 37-13

Ed Reed is the man!

DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 46

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 30-20.

Result: Cowboys 35-19

Dallas seems to be putting things back together. Too little too late, though.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Chiefs -7.5. KC Rolls 33-13.

Result: Chiefs 31-13

Man, I was so close...I don't think I've predicted an exact score all year!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 26-20.

Result: Bucs 21-0

Pathetic. I can't remember the last time a team was supposed to be good and was THIS bad. The Cowboys are close, but at least we've seen them do some good things. The 49ers are just plain awful.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -12

O/U: 44

My Pick: Saints -12. New Orleans waffle-stomps the Seahawks 45-10.

Result: Saints 34-19

Not as bad as it could have been...

ATLANTA FALCONS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-14.

Result: Falcons 34-17

Atlanta has been beating the teams they should beat...that's the sign of a solid, consistent team. They may have the mental makeup to make it to the Super Bowl this year!

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3.5

O/U: 50

My Pick: Colts +3.5. Indy wins 27-24.

Result: Pats 31-28

I was thinking about picking the Pats by 3...oh well, it still counts as an ATS win.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 48

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-17.

Result: Eagles 27-17

WOOHOOOOOOO! I called an exact score! First one of the year...and I was close on the Chiefs game, too! Let's hope I can stay this locked-in for the rest of the year.

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -10

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Chargers -10. San Diego wins 31-20.

Result: Chargers 35-14

San Diego is getting better...I'll bet they end up 9-7 and win the West...

Week Eleven Preview

2010-11-19T09:11:00.000-08:00

CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -2.5

O/U: 40.5

Analysts think Tyler Thigpen will be a solid QB for the Fins. Their passing game has been stagnant thus far, and I don't see a third-string quarterback making any significant improvements. If Chicago can key on the run, Miami will have trouble scoring. And just because they won once at home doesn't mean it will continue.

My Pick: Bears +2.5. Chicago wins 20-10.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -7

O/U: 45.5

The Jets have been playing close games against bad teams lately, so I'm not sure why I'd pick them to beat a full touchdown spread against a Houston team that really needs a win. I may be way off base, and New York may put on an offensive clinic to make up for the last two games, but I like the Texans to get back on track.

My Pick: Texans +7. Houston wins 17-13.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -7

O/U: 44

I hate full-touchdown spreads...Washington's defense is pretty awful right now, but I have to imagine they'll rebound after such a poor performance against Philly. Then again, the Titans are looking to rebound from a bad loss too. I'm making this pick for one reason - Tennessee already beat the rest of the NFC East in convincing fashion.

My Pick: Titans -7. Tennessee rolls 31-20.

BUFFALO BILLS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -5

O/U: 44

Buffalo has been playing very hard lately, and the Bengals may be a little suspect. I don't think the Bills will start phoning it in just because they got a win. I also think they can get under TO's skin a little bit on the field, which will throw Cincy's offense into a downward spiral. The Tocho show isn't working in Cincy - they're just 2-7. To their credit, though, they are losing close games...

My Pick: Bills +5. Buffalo gets its first road win 17-14.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jaguars -1.5

O/U: 44

The Jaguars showed that they can win last week against Houston, but the Browns have been playing some solid football lately, too. After the win over the Pats, I'm sold on them - at least for the moment. They also have the ability to stop the run with big Shaun Rogers at nose tackle, and if you can stop MJD, you can stop the Jags.

My Pick: Browns +1.5. Cleveland wins 23-20.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

I really want to pick the Packers, but Minnesota is a home underdog, which won't sit well with them, and Favre always plays the Packers hard. If he loses both games against the Packers in his final season, it'll kill him. So I expect him to will the Vikings to victory. Plus the Packers are banged up, and Favre HAS to beat the Packers in his last ever game against them. It's only right...

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 23-17.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -7

O/U: 41.5

Now we'll find out if the Raiders are for real. It's still an easy pick, though. Pittsburgh doesn't lose back to back games, and the Raiders have to fly all the way across the country, which tends to be an issue for west-coast teams.

My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh wins 27-10.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Ravens -10.5

O/U: 37.5

How do great defenses fare against bad offenses? Generally quite well...

My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore wins 37-10.

DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 46

The Cowboys are playing hard again, and the Lions just lost to the Bills. Detroit has a knack for beating the spread, but I think Dallas is ready to find a little success.

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 30-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 44

If KC can't blow out the Cards, they may as well pack it in.

My Pick: Chiefs -7.5. KC Rolls 33-13.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 41.5

The Bucs have showed that they can play, but I'm not sure how traveling to the West Coast will affect them. The last time they went out that way, they downed Arizona. They're also 2-0 thus far against the NFC West. The problem for the Bucs is that the 49ers still think they have a shot at winning the division, and Troy Smith gives them some interesting new options offensively. So not only will they be playing hard, but they have the talent to win big. They haven't put it together yet, but I think they're gradually learning how to win.

My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 26-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -12

O/U: 44

Wow, no love for the Seahawks. Then again, the oddsmakers aren't stupid - Seattle either gets blown out, or does the blowing out. They're not going to blow out the Saints, so there's only one outcome that makes any sense.

My Pick: Saints -12. New Orleans waffle-stomps the Seahawks 45-10.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 43

The Rams know how to win, but the Falcons are playing solid football right now. I don't expect them to have any trouble in St. Louis.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-14.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3.5

O/U: 50

This pick is going to be an absolute guess. These teams usually play epic battles, so it's possible that the Pats will win by 3. It's also possible that the Colts will win, despite all of their injuries. I'm going to bet based on total numbers - Indy's defense is #18 to New England's #29, and Indy's offense is #4 to New England's #17.

My Pick: Colts +3.5. Indy wins 27-24.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 48

Is it possible for the Giants to win? Yeah, sure. But after last week's performances, I'm giving this one to the Eagles without much of a struggle. I don't know that anyone can stop Vick right now, even the Giants, with their fantastic D-line.

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-17.

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -10

O/U: 50.5

Denver can't put together back-to-back wins over the likes of KC and SD, can they? San Diego is fighting to win the division, and most analysts think they will. Despite some awful early-season losses, I think the Chargers are back and ready to play.

My Pick: Chargers -10. San Diego wins 31-20.

Week Ten Recap

2010-11-19T07:41:00.000-08:00

Week Ten Picks: 6-8
Week Ten ATS: 7-7
Overall Picks: 88-56
Overall ATS: 72-67-5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1

O/U: 44

My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 23-20.

Result: Falcons 26-20

I tend to overestimate the Ravens every year. I like their defense a little too much, and it obscures my ability to pick against them.

NEW YORK JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-17.

Result: Jets 26-20 (ot)

I was very lucky to beat this spread. The Jets keep playing down to their opposition. They better knock that off if they're going to contend for a ring.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jags -1

O/U: 49.5

Really? The Jaguars are favored? The Texans D has been bad lately, but their offense is good enough to run away with this one.

My Pick: Texans +1. Houston rolls 34-20.

Result: Jags 31-24

A bit of a weird finish...I'm not sure how the Texans have fallen so far after their first 3 games were so fantastic, but they have...Ever since they got blown out at home by the Giants they're just not the same team.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -7

O/U: 37

My Pick: Bucs -7. Tampa wins 20-9.

Result: Bucs 31-16

Tampa's offense keeps putting up points, and the defense is more than adequate to win games. I'm curious to see how long they can stay in the discussion for a playoff spot.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Vikings -1

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Vikings -1. Minnesota wins 23-20.

Result: Bears 27-13

The Vikings are done...and I hate to say that, because I really wanted to see Favre go out on top. Minnesota is another team that I tend to pick more because I WANT them to win...that's not a very good strategy.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 47

My Pick: Bengals +7. Indy is too banged up for me to bet on a blowout. Indy still wins 23-20.

Result: Colts 23-17

Called that one. Indy is going to need to get well soon...the Pats loom. It's always a competitive game, but the Pats get the edge if Indy's still all banged up.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: 0

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Titans win 20-17.

Result: Dolphins 29-17

Miami finally learned how to win at home. I guess it required 3 quarterbacks...Now that Tyler Thigpen is their starter, people expect the passing offense to be better? I don't see it. They're still going to struggle through the air.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bills -1.5

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Lions +1.5. Detroit wins 17-13.

Result: Bills 14-12

Damn! I wanted to call the Bills' first win - I didn't think this would be it. Expect them to get at least 1 more before the season concludes, simply based on the effort they put forth each game.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Chiefs -1

O/U: 45

My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC Wins 24-20.

Result: Broncos 49-29

God I hate the Broncos. They always pull this crap. they allowed the Raiders to score 59 points on them, yet somehow went out and scored 49 of their own against a team that has had a solid defense thus far, Kansas City. How can they be so bad one week and so good the next? It's mind-boggling.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins 20-17.

Result: Seahawks 36-18

Arizona is bad. I have no idea how they almost beat the Vikings. Oh wait, yes I do. The Vikings are bad. It's the only logic that makes any sense. Don't get me wrong, though - Seattle isn't any good either.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -5.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins 21-20.

Result: 49ers 23-20

Right again. All season long I've been screwing myself by picking favored teams to win but not to cover. This week it finally started to work! I hate that one of these teams will likely be in the playoffs...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -14

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Cowboys +14. I just can't give the G-men 2 touchdowns. NY Wins 30-20.

Result: Cowboys 33-20

I guess coaching does make a difference! The Cowboys are willing to play hard for Garrett. They could end up with 6 or 7 wins. It's not going to be a playoff year in Big D, but maybe they can salvage some pride.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Pats +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-20.

Result: Pats 39-26

My bad. I forgot the Pats never lose two in a row...

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-13.

Result: Eagles 59-28

I called a lopsided Eagles win, but that was ridiculous! Wow. Now I can't help but wonder how good the Eagles really are. Their defense isn't shockingly good, but it's steady enough to get them to the playoffs, especially with Vick playing like the NFL version of Michael Jordan!

BYES: GB, OAK, SD, NO

Week Ten Preview

2010-11-13T20:05:00.000-08:00

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1

O/U: 44

The Ravens should be able to shut down Turner, and Ed Reed's return makes their D much more formidable against the pass. The Falcons are good; The Ravens are better.

My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 23-20.

NEW YORK JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 37.5

Rex Ryan will have an excellent game plan to beat his brother. Rob will try to put something together too, but I like Rex better.

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jags -1

O/U: 49.5

Really? The Jaguars are favored? The Texans D has been bad lately, but their offense is good enough to run away with this one.

My Pick: Texans +1. Houston rolls 34-20.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -7

O/U: 37

Matt Moore is done for the year, but I don't know if I want to take the Bucs to cover a full touchdown against anybody. They've played some good games, but I just don't trust them. In this case, it's not about trust. It's about the odds. And odds are Jimmy Claussen won't lead the Panthers to the end zone...

My Pick: Bucs -7. Tampa wins 20-9.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Vikings -1

O/U: 40.5

There have been a lot of distractions surrounding the Vikings, but even if the players don't like Childress, Rice's likely return should spark Favre to make some more magic. The Bears are OK, but even coming off a bye I just don't know how much offense they'll put up. Cutler is very hit or miss.

My Pick: Vikings -1. Minnesota wins 23-20.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 47

Half of Indy's lineup is questionable this week against the Bengals, so I'm not really sure which way to lean. Palmer is a little banged up, though, so I'm not sure how many points the Bengals will be able to score.

My Pick: Bengals +7. Indy is too banged up for me to bet on a blowout. Indy still wins 23-20.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: 0

O/U: 42.5

The Fins can't win at home, and no matter who plays QB for the Titans, they have Chris Johnson running the ball.

My Pick: Titans win 20-17.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bills -1.5

O/U: 45.5

Wait, the Bills are favored? Umm...Even without Stafford, the Lions have looked quite good this year. The Bills could pull this off, but I don't think it's their week.

My Pick: Lions +1.5. Detroit wins 17-13.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Chiefs -1

O/U: 45

Denver has been pretty bad, but they are the type of team that steps up and wins when you don't expect them to. Then again, KC has a very good running game (best in the league...), and Denver's run D is the league's second-worst.

My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC Wins 24-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 41.5

Speaking of games I have no interest in watching...this one is going to be awful. For some reason I think the Seahawks will get it done this week, though I have no explicable basis for that determination.

My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins 20-17.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -5.5

O/U: 38

San Francisco still knows how to lose, and the Rams have learned how to win.

My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins 21-20.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -14

O/U: 45.5

Wow...who would have imagined this spread when the season started? I'm honestly not sure which way to go with it. On one hand, the team may actually play with some heart for Garrett. On the other hand, the Ginats hate the Cowboys, and would love a chance to blow them out.

My Pick: Cowboys +14. I just can't give the G-men 2 touchdowns. NY Wins 30-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 45

The Pats are coming off an embarassing loss, and will probably put up a good fight. I think the Steelers will win, but only by a field goal.

My Pick: Pats +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-20.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

McNabb pulled out the win in his emotional return to Philly, but that was a fluke. Vick has been outstanding, and I expect him to lead the Eagles to victory.

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-13.

BYES: GB, OAK, SD, NO

Week Nine Recap

2010-11-12T14:28:00.000-08:00

Week Nine Picks: 5-7-1

Week Nine ATS: 10-3

Overall Picks: 82-48

Overall ATS: 65-60-5

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Chargers -3. San Diego wins 30-20.

Result: Chargers 29-23

The Chargers are getting better, and are going to challenge for the AFC West. Look out Raiders and Chiefs...

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -4.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Ravens 21-0

Result: Ravens 26-10

Close enough. I figured the Fins would struggle against the Ravens' D, and I was right.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 41

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans squeaks past the Panthers 17-10.

Result: Saints 34-3

Ok, so it was a total blowout. Still counts as a victory!

NEW YORK JETS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Jets -3.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Jets 27-13

Result: Jets 23-20 (ot)

Seriously Jets? Awful. Just Awful. I hate spreads of 3.5...

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -8.5

O/U: 40

My Pick: Vikings -8.5. The Vikings lay the smackdown on the Cards 34-10.

Result: Vikings 27-24

Seriously Vikings? WTF? The Cardinals? Geez.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -8

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Falcons -8. Atlanta rolls 31-13.

Result: Falcons 27-21

Damn kick return TD screwed me out of the spread. Atlanta had this one in hand the whole way and just HAD to let the Bucs beat the spread.

CHICAGO BEARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Bills +3. The Bills get off the schnide with a 13-10 win.

Result: Bears 22-19

I was rewarded for my bold Bills pick with a tie of the spread. I don't think I'll stick with them this week, but I'll bet they win soon.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Pats -4.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Pats -4.5. New England wins easily 28-13.

Result: Browns 34-14

No Comment...

NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 41

My Pick: Giants -7. New York wins 34-17.

Result: Giants 41-7

Ha! Seattle really is bad. I knew it!

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Eagles -3. A tough choice, but Indy can't win without a run game. Philly wins 31-21.

Result: Eagles 26-24

I never considered the Eagles winning and not covering. Whoops.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -1

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Chiefs +1. I can't believe I'm getting points on this! KC Wins 24-20.

Result: Raiders 23-20 (ot)

What's up with multiple overtime games being decided by the same score? Didn't this happen earlier in the year, too? Answer: Yes. Week 6, Dolphins/Packers and Pats/Ravens both played 23-20 OT games. Weird.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -8

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Packers -8. Green Bay rolls 33-20.

Result: Packers 45-7

So that's what quitting looks like. They'll get better under Garrett...if only because they can't get worse...

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 12-10.

Result: Steelers 27-21

I had to go out on a limb...I guess I got what I deserved.

NFL Week Nine Preview

2010-11-04T19:46:00.001-07:00

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 50.5

Being a home underdog does interesting things to the mindset of a good team. Houston qualifies. I'm still not sure San Diego is "over the hump" of playing like idiots, and Houston is due for a win. BUt a quick look at the stats makes me want to reconsider. Almost everyone knows Houston's defense is bad - the worst in the league, actually. So what about San Diego's statistical rankings? They're only 3-5, so they must be struggling offensively and/or defensively, right? What if I told you that, statistically, the Chargers had THE BEST Defense AND Offense in the league? Ridiculous, I know. But the numbers don't lie. I guess I'm taking the Chargers...

My Pick: Chargers -3. San Diego wins 30-20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -4.5

O/U: 40.5

The Ravens have had a week to reflect on allowing 31 points to the hapless Bills. The Dolphins have been struggling offensively. Those two do not mix well if you're a Miami fan.

My Pick: Ravens 21-0

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 41

This might as well be a bye week for the Saints given the way the Panthers have been playing lately. But Carolina has the league's 4th best pass defense and the Saints might be looking past this game to their bye week, especially with all of the banged-up personnel they're dealing with.

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans squeaks past the Panthers 17-10.

NEW YORK JETS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Jets -3.5

O/U: 41.5

The Lions have been playing good teams very close all year, so I wish this spread was under a field goal. That said, the Jets' offense laid an egg last week at home and should respond admirably, as they did in week two after a poor opening week performance.

My Pick: Jets 27-13

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -8.5

O/U: 40

Two schools of thought on this one: The Vikings could be distracted and blow it, or the Vikings could really use a good old-fashioned beat-down to help bring them all back together. Arizona is pretty bad. Especially on the road. I'm picking the latter.

My Pick: Vikings -8.5. The Vikings lay the smackdown on the Cards 34-10.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -8

O/U: 44.5

That line seems a bit high, but Atlanta did have an extra week to prepare. Every time Tampa has lost this year, they've been routed. But it has only happened twice, so you never know. I just think a well-rested Atlanta is way too tough for them.

My Pick: Falcons -8. Atlanta rolls 31-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40.5

Energized by their bye week and the big waiver pickup of Merriman, I think the Bills will come out swinging once again. Chicago had an extra week to prepare, too, but I am still not sold on them. They've really looked bad at times, but have also had some very positive moments. They may win in blowout fashion, but I really want to "call" the Bills' first win. So I'm going to be picking them whenever I feel it could possibly happen.

My Pick: Bills +3. The Bills get off the schnide with a 13-10 win.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Pats -4.5

O/U: 44

Manigini will no doubt want to beat the Pats, but I just don't think the Browns have the talent to get it done. Once Brady gets a head of steam, his team can be tough to stop. They've quietly kept winning, and are now the only team in the NFL with just one loss. Amazing, but true.

My Pick: Pats -4.5. New England wins easily 28-13.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 41

The Giants are 2nd in Total Defense and 3rd in Total Offense. The Seahawks are near the bottom of both categories. But as bad as the Seahawks have played, they seem to pull out big wins at home. A quick check of their schedule, however, provides a little more insight. They beat the 49ers in week one, when everyone thought they were good. Now we know better. They beat the Chargers when San Diego was expected to do big things. Now we know better. And they beat the Cardinals, which, let's face it, was never much of a feat. They looked good when their wins looked good, but can now be viewed as the lower-tier team they truly are. Outclassed by the Giants, I'd be very surprised if they pulled the upset.

My Pick: Giants -7. New York wins 34-17.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 46.5

Vick is going to start, so at least this will be an exciting game to watch. I've been criticized for being too hard on the Eagles, who do have some nice wins on their resume. I just don't buy them as a consistent enough team to earn a playoff spot, though I do think they will be in contention for one. They are coming off a bye week, but that's not necessarily a golden ticket. Indy is a good team, and despite injury issues, can still beat the Eagles. With absolutely no running game to switch things up, however, I think they're in trouble, as Vick could do quite well against the Indy D. If Addai plays, Indy wins. But I don't think he'll be ready to go.

My Pick: Eagles -3. A tough choice, but Indy can't win without a run game. Philly wins 31-21.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -1

O/U: 40.5

The Raiders' magical mystery tour must come to an end at some point, and I think this could be the week. KC can really run the ball, and Oakland's defense is ranked 29th against the run.

My Pick: Chiefs +1. I can't believe I'm getting points on this! KC Wins 24-20.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -8

O/U: 45.5

I don't care what the line is. Dallas has been playing with no passion and no urgency. If they do that again, they'll get trounced by the Packers. Even if they play well, the Pack could still beat em by 8.

My Pick: Packers -8. Green Bay rolls 33-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 41.5

This one's tricky...the Steelers will likely come out with a ton of intensity after a tough loss in New Orleans, but Cincy tends to get "up" for divisional games like this. In the end, I think Pittsburgh's talent should win them this game, but that Cincy's defense will somehow find a way to step up and keep it close.

My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 12-10.

Byes: DEN, TEN, STL, SF, WAS, JAX

NFL Week Eight Recap

2010-11-04T19:08:00.000-07:00

Week Eight Picks: 5-8

Week Eight ATS: 5-8

Overall Picks: 72-45

Overall ATS: 60-53-4

The T.Ocho No...

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -1.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Dolphins +1.5. Happy to be getting points on this one. Miami wins 23-17.

Result: Dolphins 22-14

Cincy is playing like the traditional Bengals, and not like the team that won the AFC North last season. TO and Ocho are more of a distraction than an asset, and I think the Bengals are learning that the hard way. Miami has all the pieces to contend in the AFC East, but they need to start scoring more points!

Benched

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -1

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Lions -1. Detroit wins 27-23.

Result: Lions 37-25

McNabb's benching was the only real story that came out of this game. You had to figure they'd lose to the Lions, as the Skins can't seem to beat opponents who they, on paper, should dominate.

I knew it was going to happen at some point...

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -5

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Jets -5. New York's defense impresses in a 24-10 win.

Result: Packers 9-0

I have been worried for weeks that the Jets' O would lay an egg at some point. I just missed the week when it actually happened!

Ok, maybe they're worse than I think...

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 37

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 17-13.

Result: Rams 20-10

I've been picking Carolina for a few weeks now, and was happy when they finally won. BUt now I've gone a little too far. They're still pretty bad...

Quitters

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 31-10.

Result: Jaguars 35-17

Yep, it's harsh. But what else do you call a team with all that talent that still manages to lose to a pretty bad Jaguars team in a blowout? They quit. Plain and simple. Romo's gone, and so is every ounce of confidence the Cowboys had. Too bad they don't play the Bills...

So Close...

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Bills +7.5. Buffalo wins outright - that's right, I'm calling win #1 - 24-20.

Result: Chiefs 13-10 (ot)

I knew the Bills would put up a fight! Too bad they couldn't convert in OT. Or score more than 10 points...that may have helped too...

London Calling

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN FRANCiSCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -1.5

O/U: 42

My Pick: Broncos +1.5. Denver wins 21-17.

Result: 49ers 24-16

I guess all the 49ers have to do to get a win is to play in London. Or to play the Broncos. Either way, things aren't really looking up for them. But who cares - San Fran won the World Series! Nobody's worried about the 9ers right now...

Finally!

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chargers -3.5. San Diego wins 21-17.

Result: Chargers 33-25

I guess offloading Merriman worked. They put up a 2-4 record against weak opponents to start, and have now fought to the finish two weeks in a row against solid teams, coming out of it 1-1. I'll bet they still find a way to win the division...they always do!

Not to be

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings +5. They haven't ruled him out, which means he ought to start. Go Vikings! Minny wins outright on sheer emotion, 23-20.

Result: Pats 28-18

I was hoping for magic, and it didn't happen. The Vikings are pretty much done. Favre just doesn't have it this year. And frankly, I think part of it is due to the three players who went to Mississippi to convince him to play. I think he needed to make the decision on his own. Now he's sort of half-hearting it on the field, and it's noticeable.

Ha!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: BUcs +3. Tampa wins 20-17.

Result: Bucs 38-35

Called it! Man, Arizona is bad this year. Though that's compared to the previous few years. Before that they were annually terrible.

Whoops...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 42

My Pick: Seahawks +2.5. Seattle wins 28-20.

Result: Raiders 33-3

Umm...I'm not sure what's gotten into the Raiders, but it's kind of scaring me. Two blowout wins in a row? Who are these guys?

Bounce Back

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -1

O/U: 44

My Pick: Steelers +1. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.

Result: Saints 20-10

I'm amazed that the Saints pulled out a win against the Steelers given all of their injury woes. I know they're good, and I expect them to contend for a trophy once Bush is back, but they've lost to some pretty bad teams lately...

Smooshed

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 50

My Pick: Texans +5.5. Indy wins 31-28.

Result: Colts 30-17

I guess I overestimated the Texans ability to score on the Colts and underestimated Peyton's desire to smack the Texans around for beating the Colts on opening weekend. Oh well.

NFL Week Eight Preview

2010-10-30T08:30:00.000-07:00

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -1.5

O/U: 43.5

Is it possible to determine which team needs a win more? Miami was the victim of an officiating mistake that cost them last week's game against the Steelers. Cincy has just been playing poorly. I think they'll show up to play at home, but will it be enough? In the end, I feel like Miami is battle-tested (check out their schedule...only 1 easy game so far), and is a better team when they're on the road.

Trends: The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Cincy. Cincy is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against Miami.

My Pick: Dolphins +1.5. Happy to be getting points on this one. Miami wins 23-17.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -1

O/U: 44.5

I find this line to be quite intriguing. Detroit has had an extra week to prepare, but I don't trust their coaching staff enough to say that the extra week will have much of an effect. Stafford is back, but the Detroit offense did just fine without him. Despite the fact that the Skins know how to win, Detroit has the weapons to score a lot of points against the league's second-worst defense, and they have just enough defense of their own to prevent the Skins from getting back in the game.

Trends: The Skins have lost 4 straight ATS before a bye. The Lions have played 6 straight Unders after a bye.

My Pick: Lions -1. Detroit wins 27-23.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -5

O/U: 42.5

Clearly the Jets are the better team right now, given all of the Packers' injuries. The Jets are also coming off a bye, so they've had an extra week to prepare. When Rex Ryan is your coach, that extra week is huge. I also think Green Bay will come out a little flat after last week's emotional win. Even if they aren't flat, I think the Jets D will keep them very much in check.

Trends: The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Jets are 7-1 SU v. Green Bay since 1991.

My Pick: Jets -5. New York's defense impresses in a 24-10 win.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 37

I actually think the Panthers have more talent than the Rams, but St. Louis has shown that they know how to win. Last week was a tough loss to swallow for the Rams, and I think they'll be hungrier for this win than will the Panthers, who just last week escaped with their first win of the year. With Matt Moore back, Steve Smith in the lineup, and JOnathan Stewart doing his thing, I just don't know if the Rams, who could be looking ahead to their bye week, will be able to keep up. If Deangelo Williams (game-time decision) does NOT play, I'd bet against the Panthers. If he does play, I'll take them to win. I'm betting on him playing.

Trends: The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against St. Louis. The Rams' Over has been 9-1 in their last 10 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 17-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 43.5

This game will come down to the mindset of the Dallas Cowboys team. They have two options: They can be down on themselves for playing terribly, being attacked by the media, and being without Romo. Or they can sack up and prove everyone wrong. I'm not in their locker room, but I have a feeling that when their backs are against the wall, they tend to perform better. Also of note: Jacksonville is terrible.

Trends: The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 pre-bye games. Three of these teams' past four meetings were played Under.

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 31-10.

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 46

Thank you oddsmakers - you've made this an easy pick. BUffalo played very well against Baltimore last week, and I don't think a trip to KC will scare them much. I'm not sure they'll win, but I cerainly think they can make it a close game. Their mindset at 0-6 has likely started to drift toward not going 0-16, and this game is one of 3 or 4 "easier" games left on the schedule.

Trends: The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against KC. 7 of these teams' last 8 meetings have been played Under.

My Pick: Bills +7.5. Buffalo wins outright - that's right, I'm calling win #1 - 24-20.

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN FRANCiSCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -1.5

O/U: 42

Most teams respond to utter embarassment with a strong performance the following week - I expect nothing less of the Broncos. San Fran finds ways to lose, and I feel like their team has already mentally checked out of this season.

Trends: The Broncos are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 trips to San Fran. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS their last 6 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Broncos +1.5. Denver wins 21-17.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3.5

O/U: 44.5

The Chargers have been shooting themselves in the foot all season long. Without all of the turnovers against New England they would have won the game. Tennessee is a solid squad, and I certainly think they can "take" the Chargers. I'm just not sure whether I should give the Chargers more than a field goal. We'll let the Trends decide...

Trends: The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 6 games before a bye. The Chargers have won 6 straight ATS against Tennessee.

My Pick: Chargers -3.5. San Diego wins 21-17.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -5

O/U: 44

If Favre doesn't start, the world will come to an end. That may be an exaggeration, but I do think it would be a shame to let a coach's decision end one of the most impressive streaks in all of sports. He's retiring at the end of the season - let him go out there on a bum wheel and risk tearing it to shreds if that's what he wants to do. It's not like you have to protect his future. You need to win NOW. If Favre doesn't play, they'll lose by plenty, as I think the rest of the team will react poorly to the situation and will not be 100% in the game. If he plays, Minny should beat the spread, if not win the game. It's hero time, Brett. Percy just missed getting his toe down last week to let you leave Lambeau in glory. Now is your chance to come out and create a moment that will last forever.

Trends: The Vikings are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 against the AFC East. These teams' past 4 meetings were played Under.

My Pick: Vikings +5. They haven't ruled him out, which means he ought to start. Go Vikings! Minny wins outright on sheer emotion, 23-20.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 39.5

This one could go either way. Tampa knows how to win; Arizona can put up big point totals at home. In the end, my vote has to go for the team whose quarterbacks are not Derek Anderson and Max Hall. Plus I like the way rookie wideout Mike Williams (Go Orange!) has been playing.

Trends: The Bucs have lost 11 straight October road games SU. 6 of these teams' past 7 meetings in the desert were played Under.

My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa wins 20-17.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 42

I think both teams will lose...Seattle is awful on the road, and the Raiders should have a big letdown after their domination of the Broncos last week. The fact that sways this pick? I think Oakland accidentally scored their entire allotment of points for the rest of the season in that one game in Denver.

Trends: The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their 10 against Oakland. The Raiders are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 against Seattle.

My Pick: Seahawks +2.5. Seattle wins 28-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -1

O/U: 44

I know the "Who Dat Nation" can, at times, will their team to victory, and they'll be especially rowdy on Halloween night against the Steelers. Problem: "Who dat" isn't just the Saints fan club right now...it's also what everyone says when they look into New Orleans' backfield. Bush and Thomas are still out. They won't be able to beat the Steelers D without a balanced attack.

Trends: Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the NFC South. The Saints are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 against Pittsburgh.

My Pick: Steelers +1. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 50

The Colts aren't happy that the Texans beat them in week one. Both teams are coming off of their bye weeks, so neither gains an advantage in that respect. Peyton against the league's worst defense makes me think "slaughter", but the Colts will likely allow their fair share of points as well against a solid Houston offense.

Trends: The Texans Under is 5-1 in their last 6 after a bye. The Colts Over is 9-2 in their last 11 after a bye.

My Pick: Texans +5.5. Indy wins 31-28.

Byes: ATL, BAL, CHI, CLE, NYG, PHI

NFL Week Seven Recap

2010-10-26T11:37:00.000-07:00

Week Seven Picks: 10-4

Week Seven ATS: 7-7

Overall Picks: 67-37

Overall ATS: 55-45-4

Who Dat? The Browns? Really?

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -13

O/U: 43

My Pick: Saints -13. New Orleans wins 30-13.

Result: Browns 30-17

Did anyone get this pick right? I doubt it. Not my fault. New Orleans, please wake the hell up. You're better than that.

Four Full Quarters

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-17.

Result: Titans 37-19

You can't play for 60% of an NFL game and win. Plus the Eagles looked like they were trying to lose even during the part of the game when they were ahead. 37-19 isn't representative of how close the game was, but I was right - the Titans did get the W.

WTF Buffalo? You wait until NOW to start playing?

BUFFALO BILLS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -13

O/U: 40

My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore crushes the Bills 30-6.

Result: Ravens 37-34 (ot)

As a Bills fan, I can't even be that upset about the Bills' valiant effort. If they play like that, they'll win at least a couple games this year.

Too bad Deangelo Hall isn't a Bear...

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40

My Pick: Redskins +3. Washington wins outright 17-10.

Result: Redskins 17-14

...because Cutler sure does like to throw him the ball! If he were a Bear, he'd have been their leading receiver, and would have been second on the receiving corps with four catches. If you're a Chicago fan, that has to make you angry. A weird game all-in-all, but Washington continues to find ways to win.

Miami may as well have won...

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Steelers -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins a slugfest 17-13.

Result: Steelers 23-22

The first of the games where I went against my gut feeling...for some reason I thought the Dolphins would win, but I couldn't come up with any logical explanation as to how they'd do it. Like the Lions in week one, the Fins won that game and were shafted by the officials. Yes, the official's decision was correct - but the whistle shouldn't have blown. It may even cost them a wild card spot when we get to the end of the season.

Again, may as well have won...

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Bucs -2.5. Tampa wins 17-10.

Result: Bucs 18-17

The other gut feeling I went against was that the Rams would win. I had actually written up the preview as though I was picking the Rams, and changed it all after I decided to go against my gut. I was right to change in one sense - Tampa got the win - but not by 2.5 points. That's one you chalk up to a game being closer than you'd have expected. No big deal.

TOcho Distraction Show

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.

Result: Falcons 39-32

TO and Ochocinco didn't need to start their own TV show. They may not feel it's a distraction, but it certainly seems that way. They have enough talent to be better than 2-4. Heck, they beat the Ravens!

Thought So!

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 35.5

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins it as a home underdog 17-13.

Result: Panthers 23-20

I knew they were good enough to get a win soon, and the 49ers, like the Cowboys, just seem to find a way to lose.

Whew...

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -9

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Chiefs -9. Kansas City wins 20-10.

Result: Chiefs 42-20

This game was close for a while, but KC finally pulled away at the end. I was worried that my initial reaction was correct - that KC wasn't a good enough squad to spot 9 points. Turns out they are...

Was Max Hall the glue that was keeping the Cards' paper ship afloat?

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Seahawks -5.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Cards +5.5. Seattle wins 20-17.

Result: Seahawks 22-10

I had no idea Max Hall's injury would kill the Cards' offense. He's no better than Anderson; or so I thought. Seattle scored the same number of points I expected them to...but the Cards disappointed me!

The Raiders scored how many points?

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -8.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Raiders +8.5. Denver wins 24-20.

Result: Raiders 59-14

That's embarrassing. You let the RAIDERS score 59 points on you. For shame.

Told ya

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 47

My Pick: Pats +3. I still can't believe I'm getting points on this. New England wins 21-17.

Result: Pats 23-20

San Diego put up a better fight than I expected, but they didn't start playing until the fourth quarter. Amazing how many Chargers-and-Cowboys-like teams we have this year; big expectation, ZERO results.

Almost Magic

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 27-20.

Result: Packers 28-24

Brett Favre comes out with a minute remaining, team down by four, on a broken ankle, and somehow leads them on a game-winning drive, capped off by a touchdown pass on 4th and 15 on which he trips over the center, gets back up, breaks a tackle, and heaves one downfield to Moss for the score. Too bad it never happened. This was a few inches from being "one of those games". The type you tell your children about 20 years from now. The type you brag to your friends about having stayed up late to watch the end of. Instead, it was just a simple Packers win.

Hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahaahhahaha

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas rolls the Giants 34-14.

Result: Giants 41-35

As you can see, the decimation of the Cowboys season pains me a great deal. I never thought they were that good. Certainly better than 1-5, but I thought all the Super Bowl hype was nothing more than wishful thinking. People wanted to see a team play in a home Super Bowl. Wait until next year - The Giants and Jets are both solid. I'd consider it a 1 in 12 chance that a New York team will get a home Super Bowl. (Appx. 24 teams will have ANY shot at a Super Bowl next year; NY has two of those 24. Hence 1 in 12. Not bad odds...)

NFL Week Seven Preview

2010-10-21T20:47:00.000-07:00

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -13

O/U: 43

The Saints still have no running game, but seem to have done just fine against Tampa last week. If they were a running team with no passing attack, I might pick the Browns to cover. Cleveland has a lot of fight in them, but most of their skill position players are banged up. New Orleans should be able to throw all over the Browns and should win big, especially at home.

Trends: The Browns have played 8 straight Unders against the NFC South. New Orleans is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC NOrth.

My Pick: Saints -13. New Orleans wins 30-13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 43

I keep expecting Kevin Kolb to screw up, but he just keeps proving me wrong. This week, however, he's without the speedy Desean Jackson, and Vick is back and ready to take over if Kolb screws up. The Eagles will be lacking speed with Jackson on the sideline, and I expect Reid to turn to Vick frequently to give the team a burst. I'm not sure Vick in a limited role will be enough, though. Kerry Collins can run the Titans offense (so could a fourth-grader...just hand the ball to CJ!), and I think Tennessee's defense will be strong enough to stifle the Eagles.

Trends: The Eagles have lost 3 straight SU to Tennessee. The Titans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 October home games.

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-17.

BUFFALO BILLS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -13

O/U: 40

The Bills have had an extra week to gameplan for the Ravens. That won't matter - 10 points will be tough to come. The Bills O against the Ravens D is like throwing eggs against a brick wall. The Ravens will score plenty; the Bills won't. Of course, now that I've picked it this way, Buffalo will score a late touchdown to lose by 12 and screw me against the spread. Just watch...

Trends: The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 post-bye games. These teams have played their last 4 meetings Under.

My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore crushes the Bills 30-6.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40

This is an incredibly unpredictable matchup. The league's worst defense plays in Washington, but we all know they're better than the statistics show. McNabb is fully capable of leading the offense to a win against a strong Bears' D, and the Skins seem to beat all of the teams they're "not supposed" to beat. Plus the Bears have no idea how to protect their quarterback, and the Redskins have a pretty good D-line.

Trends: The Redskins are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last 9 against Chicago. The Bears have lost six ATS in a row against the Skins.

My Pick: Redskins +3. Washington wins outright 17-10.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Steelers -3

O/U: 40.5

This pick scares me, but for some reason I feel like the Dolphins are a good pick as a home underdog. Roethlisberger looked ok last week, but he's not 100% up to speed yet, and Miami may be able to exploit that. Pittsburgh's defense has been incredible, but Miami will throw in just enough wrinkles to make things interesting. Then again, the Steelers will be fired up after all the BS surrounding Harrison this week, and I think that added fire will propel them to victory.

Trends: The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Miami. Six of these teams' past eight meetings have been played Under.

My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins a slugfest 17-13.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -2.5

O/U: 38

The Rams seem to know how to win this year, but so do the Bucs. Tampa is home, which will help, but their three wins were all crappy teams. What does that say? It says that when Tampa comes into a game thinking they can win, they do. I also expect St. Louis to have a bit of a hangover after a big win over San Diego.

Trends: The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against Tampa. The Under is 13-2 the last 15 times Tampa has faced the NFC West.

My Pick: Bucs -2.5. Tampa wins 17-10.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 42.5

Atlanta is the better team, and coming off a loss, I expect them to be hungry. Cincy's Chad Ochocinco sent the secondary a little present, as well, which may have fired them up. The Bengals have had an extra week to gameplan, but with TO and Ocho distracted by their new TV show, I doubt they're 100% ready to play. Cincy has the defense to shut down certain offenses, but I don't know if Atlanta's is one of them.

Trends: The Bengals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 October road games. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 35.5

Carolina isn't a horrible team, yet they sit at 0-5. San Fran has only one win, and seems to find a way to lose every single week. Should the 49ers win? Yes. Will they? I wouldn't bet on it. The Panthers have played hard, and with an extra week to prepare, I expect them to get win #1.

Trends: The 49ers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against Carolina. The Panthers have played Under 6 of their last 7 post-bye games.

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins it as a home underdog 17-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -9

O/U: 37.5

We don't yet know who the Jaguars' starting quarterback will be...but it could be newly acquired (from his couch...) Todd Bouman. That should be good enough for me to take the Chiefs, who have looked quite good. I just have this sinking feeling that the Chiefs aren't quite as good as everyone thinks, and that spotting them 9 points is a dangerous proposition at best. In the end, it all comes down to who can run the ball effectively. Both teams have strong backs, but KC's D is #5 against the run, while the Jags are just #19.

Trends: The Jags are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against eh AFC West. The Chiefs have lost 7 in a row SU to the AFC South.

My Pick: Chiefs -9. Kansas City wins 20-10.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Seahawks -5.5

O/U: 40.5

Seattle has looked invincible at home. Arizona played well two weeks ago, but for some reason I don't see them putting together a winning effort against the Seahawks, despite having an extra week to prepare. I do think they'll keep it close, however.

Trends: The Cards Under is 9-3 their last 12 games before a bye. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the Cards.

My Pick: Cards +5.5. Seattle wins 20-17.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -8.5

O/U: 41.5

Oakland has been playing close games all season. Their only loss of more than 8 was in week one against the Titans. So why would I pick the Broncos to blow them out? Then again, I never can get a good read on the Broncos.

Trends: The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Denver. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 within the division.

My Pick: Raiders +8.5. Denver wins 24-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 47

Can anyone tell me why San Diego is favored in this game? They've been awful. They lost to the Rams..THE RAMS...last week. Their first six games should have been a cake walk (take a look - it may be the easiest 6-game schedule I've ever seen...), yet they're 2-4. The Pats should wipe the floor with the Chargers. They have the potential to win, and if they were underdogs I'd think about picking them, but there is far more than a 50% chance that they'll lose or win by less than 3 than there is that they'll win by 4+. I'd have placed the spread at Pats +1, in case you were curious.

Trends: The past three meetings between these teams in San Diego have all been played Under. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Pats' last 11 games against the AFC West.

My Pick: Pats +3. I still can't believe I'm getting points on this. New England wins 21-17.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

Both teams really need a win. The Packers have no ground game to speak of, but Aaron Rodgers is certainly capable of burning the Vikings through the air. Favre has looked pedestrian all season, but I can guarantee he'll be back to form when he hits the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau field. Clay Matthews will likely play, but I doubt that his presence will immediately fix the Packers' woes. The secondary is still banged up, and Favre knows how to win in Green Bay. Plus he'll have the Vikings pumped up for a win. And they really need it.

Trends: The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Green Bay. Five of the teams' last six meetings were played Over.

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 27-20.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -3

O/U: 44

The Giants aren't that great, and now that everyone thinks they are, they'll get even worse. That's just the way they always seem to play - they win when they're underdogs and lose when they're favorites. And I mean that in the "media" sense, and not necessarily in regard to the betting line. Dallas needed a win last week, so now they REALLY need a win. As hilarious as I would find a 1-5 Dallas team, I just can't imagine them losing this game. They've gotta be psyched up and ready to go, and the Giants are susceptible to getting rocked by a team that comes out hot - if you don't believe me, go back and see what happened when they played the Titans.

Trends: The Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against Dallas. The Cowboys are 9-2 SU in their last 11 October home games.

My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas rolls the Giants 34-14.

Byes: DET, HOU, IND, NYJ

NFL Week Six Recap

2010-10-20T19:13:00.000-07:00

Week Six Picks: 10-4

Week Six ATS: 7-6-1

Overall Picks: 57-33

Overall ATS: 48-38-4

Seriously, San Diego?

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls the Rams 38-20.

Result: Rams 20-17

So not only did the Rams beat the spread, but they actually won this game? Really? If you had a video tape of the game and asked me to bet on the outcome, I'd still take the Chargers. That's how ridiculous the outcome was. I saw it, I heard it, and I still don't buy it. The Chargers are in DEEP trouble if they can't beat St. Louis, especially given their loss to lowly Oakland the week before.

So much for Trends

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago wins 31-10.

Result: Seahawks 23-20

Seattle looked great at home and awful on the road through 5 weeks. So naturally they come out in week 6 and beat a 4-1 team on the road. What's going on this week? These outcomes seem surreal...

So Close

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -4.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Texans -4.5. Houston 37-22.

Result: Texans 35-31

I have no idea how the Chiefs scored 31 points, but at least the Texans came back and won. That said, I hate when I lose a pick based on a half point. Although I suppose I'd be just as upset if the spread had been five.

I got one Right!

DETROIT LIONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -10

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Lions +10. Giants win 27-20.

Result: Giants 28-20

It's always nice to be one point off of a perfect pick, especially in a crazy week like week 6 where just about everything went awry. The Giants are going to fall back to the pack now that people expect them to be good. That's just the way they roll. The Lions are a solid squad, and will continue to challenge almost every opponent. Matt Stafford's return could even propel them to a win or two that you wouldn't have expected out of them when the season began (i.e. Bears, Packers).

As Usual...

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -13.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Browns +13.5. Pittsburgh wins 20-9.

Result: Steelers 28-10

I've done this before. It seems like every time the Steelers play the Browns and are favored by 10+ points I convince myself that it's going to be a low-scoring game, only to watch Pittsburgh blow the game wide open and beat the spread handily.

Back to Business

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Saints -4

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Saints -4. New Orleans gets the W, 27-17.

Result: Saints 31-6

The Saints finally found some enthusiasm! It's good to see them back on track. The Bucs are clearly better than last year, but are not "for real" like the Chiefs. In other words, they may win a few more games, but they'll be heavy underdogs to all the good teams they play and will be out of playoff contention by week 12.

Uh Oh...

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 17-13.

Result: Dolphins 23-20 (OT)

The Packers' injuries are really catching up to them. You can't help but feel bad for them. They've got some of the best fans in the league and had such high hopes for this season - but the injury bug hath bitten the Pack yet again.

Don't Mess With Belichick

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Patriots -2.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Pats -2.5. New England wins 17-14.

Result: Pats 23-20 (OT)

I honestly made this pick solely because Belichick had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens. And I was right. Point Made.

How Good are the Eagles?

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Falcons +3. Atlanta wins outright 16-10.

Result: Eagles 31-17

I'm actually asking, because I have no idea. I didn't expect much from them under Kolb, but thought they might do some interesting things with Vick under center. As soon as he went down, I went back to assuming they were Buffalo 2.0 - A team with an OK defense and no quarterback. Apparently I was wrong and Kevin Kolb IS good enough to win games. He'll probably have a bad game here or there, but he's been solid the past 2+ weeks. Atlanta is too good to lose to teams like Philly...they need to dig deeper.

They really shouldn't have needed a comeback...

NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-13.

Result: Jets 24-20

It's a bit scary that the Jets needed a late comeback to beat the Broncos, who should have had very little success against the Jets D. Another way to look at it, however, is that the Jets had a bad game - a small letdown before their bye week - and still got the win. They'll come out after the Bye ready to play, and will likely avoid any more stumbles for at least another few weeks after analyzing all the things they did wrong against Denver.

Finally a Win!

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ sAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -6.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: 49ers -6.5. San Francisco needs a win. They get it 24-13.

Result: 49ers 17-9

Quite the offensive slugfest. Alex Smith is not the answer...if San Fran wants to win games, they're going to need to do it defensively, like they did against Oakland.

HAHAHAHAHA, Dallas is 1-4

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota gets win #2, 24-20.

Result: Vikings 24-21

In case you didn't notice, I'm thrilled that the Cowboys are 1-4, especially given the expectations everyone had for them this season. They were "supposed" to be the first team to play a Super Bowl at home. Now it looks like they are long shots to reach the playoffs! Part of my joy is also due to my respect for Favre, Peterson, and the Vikings. I like to see them win, and with the Packers faltering, would enjoy watching them fight for a playoff spot down the stretch...a 1-4 start would have likely precluded them from being anywhere near playoff contention late in the year.

A little defense, anyone?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Colts -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-13.

Result: Colts 27-24

I had Indy's score right, but didn't realize that they'd let Washington score so many points. Did you know that Washington's defense is statistically the worst in the league? Isn't that crazy? They're 3-3 (which is better than normal for them, as of late), and have basically ridden their defense to wins for years. Now that the offense is no longer useless, the defense has gotten worse. They still have the players to be solid, though. If that D pulls it together, the Skins could make a run toward the playoffs. Especially with Dallas at 1-4. Hahaha. Makes me laugh every time.

QB Issues

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 45

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-10.

Result: Titans 30-3

I pretty much expected Tennessee to dominate. The one thing I didn't expect was for all of the quarterbacks to get hurt! It's not rare for a team to go out and sign a player, even a quarterback, in between games. It is VERY rare for a team to go out and sign a STARTING quarterback between games. Poor Jacksonville. They're hoping Garrard and/or Edwards can be ready for Sunday, but all the practice reps are going to two guys who were watching Monday Night's game from the comfort of their living rooms. I think the Chiefs may be able to end their two game losing streak, as the Jags won't be putting up much of a fight.

NFL Week Six Preview

2010-10-15T13:21:00.000-07:00

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45

San Diego has been predictably inconsistent thus far - a loss last week to an inferior opponent means that they'll win big this week. They also have the #1 offense in the NFL, statistically, and the Rams defense is in the league's bottom third in all statistical categories.

Trends: The Chargers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 October road games. All 6 meetings between these teams since 1988 have been played Over.

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls the Rams 38-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 37.5

Seattle is another predictable team - at home they win, on the road they get blown out. The Chicago D should be able to handle the Seahawks lackluster offense, and if the Bears can beat the desperate Panthers without Cutler, they can sure as hell beat the Rams with him.

Trends: The Seahawks have played 10 straight Overs after a bye. Six of the last 7 Bears October home games have been played Over.

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago wins 31-10.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -4.5

O/U: 45

At some point this season the Chiefs have to get blown out. They're not a bad team, but the offense hasn't played well enough to win a shootout, and I just don't see that defense playing superb every single week. After a rough home loss to the Giants, the Texans are out to show that they're a contender. The Texans are banged up, but I think they'll still put a hurting on the Chiefs.

Trends: The road team has covered 4 of the past 5 meetings in this series. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Texans -4.5. Houston 37-22.

DETROIT LIONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -10

O/U: 44.5

After a big win over the Rams, I'm concerned that Detroit will come into this game with the wrong mindset. If that's the case, they could lose big. But so far this season Detroit has played every opponent close. New York is now being thought of in an overly high regard after dominating the Texans, and the Giants have always been the type of team that plays better when the odds are stacked against them. Once they get big heads, they screw up.

Trends: The Lions have lost 6 straight ATS headed into a bye week. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home matchups against the Lions.

My Pick: Lions +10. Giants win 27-20.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -13.5

O/U: 37.5

This is an oversized spread. McCoy is starting for the first time, and couldn't have picked a worse defense to try to compete against in his first NFL game. The Steelers, however, come out with Roethlisberger playing his first game of the season. I don't expect him to be 100% ready, and I think Mike Tomlin, being the pragmatist that he is, will settle for a run-oriented offense (that's Steeler football anyway) rather than fully taking the reigns off of Ben. He may have one of two shots down the field, but barring a ton of Browns turnovers, I expect this to be a clsoe, low-scoring, defensive game.

Trends: The Browns are 1-4 SU 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Pittsburgh. The Over is 6-1-1 in the teams' last 8 meetings in the Steel City.

My Pick: Browns +13.5. Pittsburgh wins 20-9.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Saints -4

O/U: 43.5

I know the NFC South has a lot of parity. I know the Bucs have been playing well. I know the last place one year generally becomes the first place team the next. But the talent level and experience of the Saints, even with injuries, ought to shine through enough to keep them from falling to .500.

Trends: The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips to Tampa. The Bucs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 October home games.

My Pick: Saints -4. New Orleans gets the W, 27-17.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 45.5

The Packers seem to be injury plagued every year. Let me be the first (that I know of) to coin this term: The Favre Curse. We'll see if they can overcome their problems against the Fins, but the holes on defense may be exploited against a balanced Dolphin attack (assuming Henne shows up...), and Rodgers isn't at 100%. Even if he were healthy, he's missing one of his favorite targets, Jermichael Finley. The Packers were a top preseason pick, but as I expected, they've stumbled. That said, the Dolphins are a warm-weather team playing at Lambeau field, so the logical answer may not be the correct one.

Trends: The Dolphins are 1-10 SU in their last 11 October road games. The Packers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 against the AFC East.

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 17-13.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Patriots -2.5

O/U: 45

Both of these teams are solid, and the change from Moss to Branch shouldn't affect the Pats' offensive rhythm too much. Flacco and the Ravens are more than capable of scoring points, too...so this one comes down to the defense. The Ravens' defense versus the Pats' defense...ok, so that matchup is obvious. Special teams leans toward the Pats. The X factors? Belichik has had 2 weeks to prepare, and the Ravens are 1 for 7 against the Pats in team history.

Trends: The Ravens are 1-6 SU against the Pats. The Pats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 post-bye games.

My Pick: Pats -2.5. New England wins 17-14.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

This one seems obvious to me...Kolb beat the 49ers, but they're 0-5 and have been beating themselves. He's not going to be able to do much against a top-10 defense with check downs. He'll have to go down the field, and I don't think he has the stones to do it. I'm also not sure how effective the Eagles' D will be against Ryan and Turner. My guess? Not very.

Trends: The Falcons are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 against Philly. The Under is 9-1 in these teams' last 10 meetings.

My Pick: Falcons +3. Atlanta wins outright 16-10.

NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 41.5

I'm not going to waste much time on this one...Denver's not good, the Jets are. The thin air shouldn't affect the Jets enough to let Denver win. And if I'm wrong, I'll just blame it on the fact that I'm rarely able to correctly pick Broncos games.

Trends: The Jets are 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Broncos have played 5 straight October home Unders.

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ sAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -6.5

O/U: 41.5

The Raiders always play worse against their lesser opponents. At 0-5, San Fran fits into that category. It's time for San Francisco to step up and win a freaking game. Let's put it this way - If San Fran loses to the Raiders AT HOME, I will assume they are an 0-16 team in the making and will pick against them, at least straight up, for the rest of the season.

Trends: The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October road games. These teams' past 3 meetings in San Fran have all been played Over.

My Pick: 49ers -6.5. San Francisco needs a win. They get it 24-13.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44.5

The Vikings have had the Cowboys' number lately. Both teams are struggling, but somehow Dallas' offense is still #2 in the league and their defense is #8. And they're 1-3. Go figure. Minnesota's defense is #2 in the league, but their offense is #18, which makes a little more sense. One of these teams will be 1-4, and the community that supports that team will be outraged. They should have both been Super Bowl contenders. Minnesota is losing because Favre isn't healthy. Dallas is losing because it seems as though they have no heart. I'll take the team that's trying over the team with no heart any day.

Trends: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against Dallas. The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 October road games.

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota gets win #2, 24-20.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Colts -3

O/U: 44

Washington surprised me last week, but I still don't think they're as good as their record reflects. They have only lost twice, but one loss was to the Rams, and it looked ugly the whole way through. Their last two wins each held a special significance, one due to McNabb's Philly return, the other due to Albert Haynesworth's brother's death. The show of team support for Albert will make him that much better of a teammate from this point forward, but I don't know if his improved play will result in another win over an elite team. Indy's D has been quetionable against the run, but the Skins have no real running game to speak of. Plus Peyton and the offense didn't have much success last week against the Chiefs, and I expect them to come alive this week.

Trends: These teams have played Over in 6 of their last 7 matchups. The Skins are 0-6 in their last 6 October home games.

My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-13.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 45

Can the Jags win 3 straight? Could the Rams? Answer...NO. Tennessee is a solid team, and CJ is craving some carries. He'll get them, and will run all over Jacksonville.

Trends: The Under is 7-2 in the Titans' last 9 within the AFC South. The Jags are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 October home games.

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-10.

Byes: ARI, BUF, CAR, CIN

NFL Week Five Recap

2010-10-12T11:35:00.000-07:00

Week Five Picks: 8-6
Week Five ATS: 10-4
Overall Picks: 47-29
Overall ATS: 41-32-3

Run Over

CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bears -2.5

O/U: 35.5

My Pick: Panthers +2.5. Carolina wins outright

Result: Bears 23-6

Ok, ok, I was way off. I had no idea Carolina wouldn't even TRY to stop the run. Chicago looks more and more legit with every win...with Minnesota falling further back each week, Chicago's playoff chances go up.

Best in the South?

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 24-19.

Result: Falcons 20-10

I was pretty close on how this would shape up. Cleveland has been playing hard, and could surprise a few more teams this season. With the win, Atlanta is behind only TB in the NFC South, and it's all but guaranteed that the Bucs will fall off soon. With the Reggie-less Saints struggling, are the Falcons the best in the South? I don't see how you can argue against it.

Surprise! It's the Giants.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Giants +3. I have no idea why, but I have a gut feeling on this one. NY wins 23-20.

Result: Giants 34-10

I wasn't sure why, but I had a feeling that the Giants would show up this week. They did, and in impressing fashion.

Packing it in?

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 27-10.

Result: Skins 16-13

What? I guess the Skins are one of those teams that wins the tough ones and loses the easy ones. This is a team that blew a 17-point lead with :01 left in the 3rd quarter against Houston and was beaten thoroughly by the Rams. THE RAMS. And now they come out and beat "everyone's" (not mine...) Super Bowl pick?

It's also possible that Washington is one of those teams that steps up when they have the motivation to do so. They beat Philly in McNabb's return to the city of brotherly love (despite McNabb being average at best) and defeated the Packers while Albert Haynesworth was away griveing with his family, with McNabb noting in the pre-game that "this game's for Albert".

I got one right!

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: 0

O/U: 41

My Pick: Jaguars Pk. Jacksonville wins a shootout, 17-13.

Result: Jags 36-26

The irony of my sarcasm is not lost on me. I joked that it would be a shootout, given that neither team has much of an offensive attack. And then it actually was a shootout, with the teams dousing the Over by 3 touchdowns. But at least I got a Bills game right! Too bad they're still winless...could they pull off 0-16? I would laugh so hard...

The Bengals have the Ravens' number; The Bucs have theirs

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -6

O/U: 38

My Pick: Bucs +6. Cincy wins 23-20.

Result: Bucs 24-21

The Bucs have now beaten the Bengals in 6 straight games. Not good if you're a Cincy fan. What can you make of these teams? At the end of the season, I still expect the Bengals to be close, but likely a win out of, the playoffs, and I expect Tampa to be thinking about golf by December - Yet the Bengals just lost to the 3-1 Bucs, a week after falling to the then-winless Browns. Gotta love Parity.

Hey, they were playing well...

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Lions -3. Detroit has been playing too well to blow a gimme. Lions 27-10.

Result: Lions 44-6

This game illustrates the dynamics of the lower end of the NFL. The Rams aren't great, but got two wins over streaky middle-to-lower-tier opponents. The Lions have played a tough schedule, but have played all of their opponents quite well. So I'm really not that surprised that the Lions are 38 points better than the Rams.

The Last Undefeated Falls

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 45

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-13.

Result: Colts 19-9

I was right, but Indy certainly didn't "roll". Kansas City showed that they can play with the league's elite teams, and with the Chargers struggling (and already having lost to the Chiefs head-to-head), Kansas City might have a shot at postseason play. They're no Super Bowl contender, but 9-7 could win the AFC West.

I got the Denver AND Buffalo games right this week? Satan must be freezing.

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -7

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 24-14.

Result: Ravens 31-17

I'm still on the Ravens' Super Bowl bandwagon. They already beat their main challenger for the crown - the jets - so who is going to stand in their way?

Of COURSE the Cards won...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans finally gets a blowout win, 38-14.

Result: Cards 30-20

I have no idea how this happened. Had the entire Saints team been replaced by 90 year old nuns I still would have picked them to win by 7. Arizona is downright bad. I'm not sure what went down in the desert, but I don't expect it to continue. The Saints aren't that bad, and the Cards certainly aren't that good.

Same Ol Cowboys

TENNESSEE TITANS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -7

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Titans +7. Dallas wins 23-17.

Result: Titans 34-27

I wasn't sure how the Cowboys would come out of their bye week, but this game certainly proved a point. Dallas is going to continue to underachieve, and will likely miss the playoffs. The NFC North and South are too good this year not to have two wild card teams among them. Believe it or not, the vaunted NFC East is having a down year. And the Cowboys are the main reason.

HAHAHAHA

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Chargers -6

O/U: 45

My Pick: Raiders +6. I've been picking the Raiders far too much this season. I must be a masochist. Chargers still win 20-17.

Result: Raiders 35-27

Those West Coast teams sure are strange! Seattle and San Diego each seem to alternate between horrendous and unstoppable every week. Yes, I picked the Raiders to cover, but I didn't actually think they'd win! Come on Chargers - Have some dignity.

Still Winless

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 38

My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins outright 24-13.

Result: Eagles 27-24

Yet another streaky West Coast team - but unlike the previous two, San Fran alternates between respectable and useless. I guess this one counts as respectable, since the Eagles are a decent team. Too bad the 49ers are still 0-5 despite being picked to win their division!

Stupid Favre and his Stupid Late Interceptions

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -4

O/U: 39

My Pick: Vikings +4. Jets win 20-17.

Result: Jets 29-20

I should have been dead-on with this pick, but Favre decided to throw a late pick-six to allow the Jets to beat the spread. Now the Vikes are 1-3 and in danger of falling too far behind in the NFC North to catch up.

NFL Week Five Preview

2010-10-07T15:04:00.000-07:00

CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bears -2.5

O/U: 35.5

The Bears will be better than they were last week, especially along the offensive line. But without Cutler, I don't think their offense will get it done. There's a reason Todd Collins had no interceptions between 1997 and last week...HE'S BEEN ON THE BENCH! Carolina has been playing hard and is due for a win. The Bears will come out with intensity following last week's loss, but so will the Panthers.

Trends: The Under is 14-3 in the last 17 Bears October road games. Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Panthers +2.5. Carolina wins outright

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 40.5

Atlanta is a legitimiately good team. Cleveland has been playing hard, and they deserved a win last week. But the Falcons can beat you in a lot of different ways.

Trends: Atlanta lost both prior meetings SU & ATS. The Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 October games.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 24-19.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 47.5

The Giants D-line really stepped up against the Bears, but the offense didn't look very good. The run game is a question mark, as Brandon Jacobs has lost the team's confidence and Bradshaw's ankle isn't 100% (even though he says it is). I don't think the defense will be able to stop the multiple weapons the Texans possess, though I'm not sure how dynamic Houston's offense will be if Andre Johnson isn't healthy enough to play. I'm also worried that Houston will fall back into the 8-8 or 9-7 groove at some point, but am not sure when the collapse will happen.

Trends: The Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 October road games. The Texans covered both prior meetings against NY.

My Pick: Giants +3. I have no idea why, but I have a gut feeling on this one. NY wins 23-20.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 44

This one shouldn't even be a contest. The Skins played OK last week, but really haven't impressed me as much as I had hoped. Green Bay stumbled a little against the Lions, but they still got the W. It's not going to be easy to beat a solid Skins' D without Ryan Grant, but I think they'll score plenty of points to keep Washington out of reach.

Trends: The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS against the Skins since 1986. Five of these teams' past 6 meetings were played Under.

My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 27-10.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: 0

O/U: 41

YAY! Finally a Bills game where they can't possibly screw me over. As long as I take the Jags to win, the Bills will either verify my pick or they'll win the game - either way, I'm happy. Of note: Trent Edwards was picked up by the Jags. So I full expect Jacksonville to know every play Buffalo has in their playbook. Edwards had to be pissed after getting released by Buffalo and will be the main reason the Jags win (even if he doesn't see a single snap).

Trends: The Jags are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against Buffalo. The Bills Under is 6-2 in their last 8 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Jaguars Pk. Jacksonville wins a shootout, 17-13.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -6

O/U: 38

I'm tempted to think that the Bengals will come off of their loss with newfound vigor, but they really haven't blown anyone out all season. Plus TO and Ochocinco are distracted with their new TV show on Versus...who thought that was a good idea in-season? Tampa is 2-1 and has looked pretty solid. Coming off a bye week, I expect them to have gameplanned for everything the Bengals can throw at them. In the end, I think the odds that the Bengals put on an offensive clinic are lower than the odds that Tampa plays them strong coming off the bye week.

Trends: Tampa is 6-2 in their last 8 games coming off a bye. The Bengals have lost 5 in a row SU against TB.

My Pick: Bucs +6. Cincy wins 23-20.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -3

O/U: 42.5

Detroit has been playing very well, and really deserves to win a game. St. Louis has won two in a row...it's highly unlikely that they'll make it 3.

Trends: The Rams Under is 4-1 in their last 5 on the road against NFC North opponents. The Lions are 1-7-1 ATS, 0-9 SU in their last 9 against the NFC West.

My Pick: Lions -3. Detroit has been playing too well to blow a gimme. Lions 27-10.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 45

I can't believe the Chiefs are the NFL's last unbeaten team! Good to see that they won't have the chance to blow their undefeated record against a lesser opponent. The Colts will be focused coming off a loss, and have the talent to crush the upstart Chiefs.

Trends: The Chiefs Over is 6-1 in their last 7 games after a bye. Indy is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against KC since 1990.

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-13.

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -7

O/U: 38.5

The Ravens are by far the better team. And they're playing at home against a Denver team that may be overconfident after a big win last week in Tennessee. They also have to travel a long way for the second week in a row. Then again, they're the Broncos, so they'll probably win just to piss me off.

Trends: The Broncos have lost 4 in a row SU and ATS against Baltimore. 6 of these teams' past 7 meetings have been played Under.

My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 24-14.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 45

New Orleans hasn't been blowing teams out this season, but if there were ever a team they could change that trend against, it's Arizona. They've been blown out by every strong team they've played.

Trends: The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Arizona. The Cards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans finally gets a blowout win, 38-14.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -7

O/U: 41.5

Will we see the Cowboys from weeks 1 and 2 or the Cowboys from week 3? I think their bye week gave them a chance to reflect a bit, and when the Cowboys think too much they tend to get in their own way. Tennessee is going to be motivated after a bad loss to Denver, and I think they can keep this game within a touchdown. And god help me, Dallas, if you play like crap again I will come to your house and I will cut you. I hate you, but I can't stand to see a team that should be good playing like idiots.

Trends: The road team has covered in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye.

My Pick: Titans +7. Dallas wins 23-17.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Chargers -6

O/U: 45

I expect Oakland to beat the spread against a team they shouldn't at least twice this season, and this may be their first chance. San Diego has been up and down thus far, and has actually LOST to KC and Seattle on the road. Last week they won big at home, so it naturally follows that they'd stumble this week on the road.

Trends: The Chargers have won 13 straight SU against Oakland. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home against San Diego.

My Pick: Raiders +6. I've been picking the Raiders far too much this season. I must be a masochist. Chargers still win 20-17.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 38

I guess the oddsmakers have no confidence in Kolb either! San Francisco is due for a win, but I don't know if it will be this week. They've been up and down like the Chargers, but have lost all 4 games. They play better teams close and get blown out by lesser teams. I think they'll underestimate Kolb and blow another one.

Trends: The Eagles have won and covered 4 in a row against SF. 5 of the teams' past 6 meetings have been played Over.

My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins outright 24-13.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -4

O/U: 39

Does anyone else think it's hilarious that "Slouch" got himself traded directly into another matchup against Revis? Darrelle isn't guaranteed to play, but with Moss coming back to town I'm sure he'll be on the field. I think Minnesota has a good chance to win, especially given their record (not good - so they're motivated) and the extra week they've had to gameplan for the Jets. If they do win, I think they'll do it with defense. By that I mean that I think the Vikings defense will score a touchdown and change the complexion of the game. Moss and Favre won't be on the same page yet, though, so don't expect Moss' addition to be a major factor.

Trends: The Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Post-bye games. The Jets are 5-0 against the Vikes since 1982.

My Pick: Vikings +4. Jets win 20-17.

BYES: MIA, NE, PIT, SEA

NFL Week Four Recap

2010-10-06T19:40:00.000-07:00

Week Four Picks: 10-4

Week Four ATS: 9-5

Overall Picks: 39-23

Overall ATS: 31-28-3

Too Close?

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line:Saints -13.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Panthers +13.5. New Orleans wins 23-13.

Result: Saints 16-14

New Orleans isn't blowing people out this year, but they sure do seem to know how to win. They're only going to get better when the defense finally starts to force turnovers (like it did last year). And their tailbacks can't stay injured forever! Carolina has a lot of fight in them - their next few opponents better be careful, because this is a team that won't be winless much longer.

Ram Job

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Seahawks -1

O/U: 40

My Pick: Seahawks -1. Seattle wins 17-13.

Result: Rams 20-3

I can't even pretend to understand this. They're like a completely different team on the road. It's unreal.

God They're Bad...

NEW YORK JETS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Jets -5

O/U: 36.5

My Pick: Bills +5. New York wins 14-13.

Result: Jets 38-14

JC was right - no matter what I think the Bills will do, they find a way to do the opposite.

Best 0-4 Team Ever

DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -14.5

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Lions +14.5. Green Bay wins 27-13.

Result: Packers 28-26

Ok, so best ever might be an overstatement, but the Lions have competed awfully well for an 0-4 team. They "beat" the 3-1 Bears, barely lost to the 3-1 Pack, had a huge comeback fall 3 points short against 2-2 Philly, and hung in there against a Vikings team that was 0-2 at the time and desperate for a win. And most of that was done without their star QB Matt Stafford, who has been hurt since week 1. They'll get a win soon.

AFC Championship Preview?

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -1

O/U: 34.5

My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 17-13.

Result: Ravens 17-14

I was dead-on with this pick. Both of these teams are very solid, and could very well make deep postseason runs. Anybody suiting up against the Ravens or Steelers is going to have a fight on their hands - and most teams will lose that fight.

I Hate Denver

DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -6.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee wins 31-20.

Result: Broncos 26-20

Much like the Bills, the Broncos refuse to cooperate with my picks. This week I really should have gone against my gut and taken them against the spread. I should just refuse to pick the Bills and Broncos and start each week at 0-2...it would be less stressful.

It's good!

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -7

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: 49ers +7. Atlanta still wins 23-21.

Result: Falcons 16-14

Another excellent pick by yours truly. San Fran can compete against the better teams, but can't seem to do anything against their lesser opponents. At 0-4, things look bleak. But the rest of their division is 2-2, so they still have a very realistic chance to fulfill the prophecy and win the West. They just need to pull their heads out of their bums and win some games.

When ESPN says it's a Lock, I need to learn to listen

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Bengals -3

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-13.

Result: Browns 23-20

ESPN analysts were picking the Browns left and right last week, discussing their hard play and the notion that they'd win very soon. I just didn't see how the Bengals, who recently defeated a very good Ravens team, could lose to the lowly Browns. Now I do.

The Jags have someone's number...

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 46

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-17.

Result: Jags 31-28

How the Jags can beat a good team baffles me. They found a way to score points on an injury-plagued defense (Bob Sanders' injury alone counts as a plague), and somehow eeked out a win. The Colts always seem to have trouble with Jacksonville, for whatever reason. Don't let one result fool you - The Jags are bad, the Colts are good. Indy will figure things out.

The Raiders are Still Awful

HOUSTON TEXANS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-20.

Result: Texans 31-24

Wait, you're telling me Bruce Gradkowski just isn't getting the job done? I'm shocked. Oakland is a miserable franchise. Until Al Davis dies, they won't win 7 games in a season.

McNabb's Revenge

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -5.5

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Redskins +5.5. Washington wins outright 23-17.

Result: Skins 17-12

It wasn't pretty, but McNabb's teammates backed him up and helped him to silence the city of Philadelphia. Or at least to divert their attention to baseball for a few weeks now that the Eagles are back in the hands of Kevin "corn-on-the" Kolb.

Finally a Team I can Pick!

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls 34-14.

Result: Chargers 41-10

Arizona is helping me out - they beat the bad teams and get blown out by the good ones. They're a middle of the pack team that does what everyone expects them to do. Nice to have a team that can offset the pounding the Bills and Broncos give me every week.

Jay Cutler is a Prostitute

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -3.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Giants -3.5. New York wins 27-21.

Result: Giants 17-3

He gets paid an ungodly amount of money to lie flat on his back - how else do you explain his profession? I hate that Doug Gottlieb thought this was an awful game that wasn't worth watching. The Bears O-line was awful, but the Giants' D was stellar. They won almost every 1-on-1 line battle, and sacked Cutler NINE times. I found it quite entertaining.

How good are the Pats?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Pats -1

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Pats -1. New England wins 31-28.

Result: 41-14

It's amazing that the Pats were down 7-6 at the half. Now that they've discarded Moss, I don't know if the Pats are as dangerous. He was the reason the smaller guys were open so frequently. We'll have to see how Brady handles the new coverages he'll see. Their defense isn't particularly outstanding either - they're young and don't strike fear into opponents like the Steelers' and Ravens' Defenses. They could be good, but I see them as the type of team that plays one outstanding half and falters in the other - which could come back to bite them.

NFL Week Four Preview

2010-09-30T19:17:00.000-07:00

A little discourse worked out well last week, so JC's opinions will once again appear on the blog wherever applicable.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line:Saints -13.5

O/U: 44.5

The Saints have shown the grit of a champion through 3 weeks of the season, but all 3 games have been close. One could argue that they'll come out flying after a tough-to-swallow loss to Atlanta, but Carolina hasn't won a game yet, and will be out for blood as well.

The loss of Bush and Thomas will severely hamper their run game, and Carolina's defense is traditionally solid against the pass. I'm not sure Carolina has the pieces to win, but I certainly don't think they'll get blown out.

Trends: Carolina is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against New Orleans. The Under is 9-2 in these teams' last 11 matchups.

My Pick: Panthers +13.5. New Orleans wins 23-13.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Seahawks -1

O/U: 40

I'm tempted to pick the Rams, simply because the Seahawks are a totally different team on the road than they are at home. Then again, do I really think the Rams are good enough to win two games in a row? Umm...no. No I do not.

Trends: Seattle is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to St. Louis. They're 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups overall.

My Pick: Seahawks -1. Seattle wins 17-13.

NEW YORK JETS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Jets -5

O/U: 36.5

Can the Bills offense do ANYTHING against the Jets' D? A solid trio of quick running backs could give New York a little trouble, but I'm not sure if the Bills' defense will be able to keep them in the game long enough for the running backs to wear down the Kris Jenkins-less Jets rush defense.

Sanchez has had a couple of good games in a row, and I think he might be due for a letdown. Throw in the fact that the Bills are at home and you can see why I want to pick them to beat the spread.

Trends: New York is 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October home games.

JC picks the Jets to beat the spread knowing full well that no matter what pick I make, the Bills are bound to let me down.

My Pick: Bills +5. New York wins 14-13.

DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -14.5

O/U: 45.5

Green Bay isn't pleased to have lost on Monday Night, and I guarantee they'll play a more disciplined game this week. Then again, they're playing on short rest, without Ryan Grant, and with a crappy O-line against a solid Lions defensive line. Will Detroit win? Heck no, especially given Jahvid Best's questionable status. But I think they can keep it closer than 14.

Trends: The Lions are 4-13-2 ATS (0-19 SU) in their last 19 trips to GB. Green Bay is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NFC North games.

My Pick: Lions +14.5. Green Bay wins 27-13.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -1

O/U: 34.5

I could analyze this game inside and out, but it all boils down to one simple fact - the Steelers are NOT going to go 4-0 without Ben Roethlisberger.

If you need further convincing, the Ravens are very good, should be able to move the ball against the Steelers' D, and should be able to pressure Charlie Batch into showing exactly why he's the 4th-string QB in Pittsburgh.

Trends: The Over is 8-1-1 in Baltimore's last 10 trips to Pittsburgh. The Steelers have played Over in 10 of their last 13 October home games.

JC doesn't trust the Ravens right now. He also thinks that if Hillis can run all over the Ravens, so can Mendenhall. He takes the Steelers to win and cover.

My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 17-13.

DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -6.5

O/U: 43

Tennessee looks pretty good right now. Young is playing with confidence, and nobody can stop CJ. Their defense is more than good enough to hold down Denver, and they're playing at home. I see no reason the Titans won't be able to pull off at least a 7 point win.

Trends: Denver is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC South. The past 6 meetings between these teams were all played Over.

JC takes the Broncos to win outright, as he doesn't trust the Titans and thinks the Broncos look good.

My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee wins 31-20.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -7

O/U: 42.5

I was on the 49ers bandwagon, but have abruptly fallen off. Singletary has such a strong personality that I assumed his team would respond to its rough start. It hasn't.

Atlanta just beat the Saints, and looks quite good. San Fran has to travel all the way across the country, which tends to take some of the fire out of western teams. I can see this being a close game, though, especially after the 49ers kept it close against its previous NFC South opponent. Then again, the 49ers were just blown out by the Chiefs.

Trends: The 49ers are 0-12 SU, 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 October road games. The Falcons have played 6 staright Overs against the NFC West.

My Pick: 49ers +7. Atlanta still wins 23-21.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Bengals -3

O/U: 37.5

Many analysts think that the Browns are a good bet in this game, given the Bengals' offensive struggles. They kept it close against Baltimore last week, and Peyton Hillis had a fantastic game. I'm not sold on the Bengals, but they've had great success within the division over the past 2 seasons. And the Browns aren't very good.

Trends: The Bengals are 9-2 SU in their last 11 against Cleveland. The Under is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings between these teams.

JC thinks Cleveland will ride Peyton Hillis to their first victory.

My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-13.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 46

Indy is looking quite good right now, and Jacksonville is struggling. I don't see the Jags having any chance, even at home.

Trends: The Colts are 10-2 SU in their last 12 October road games. The Jaguars are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games against Indy.

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 43

I'm tempted to take the Raiders, given their proclivity for playing up to the competition. The problem is that the Raiders, as underdogs of only 3 points, would pretty much need to win to beat the spread. I don't see that happening, especially with the Texans coming off a loss. Oakland has the league's second-best pass defense, but is only 24th against the run, and the Texans have had a lot of success on the ground with Arian Foster.

I can see the Raiders winning, but picking them for a fourth week in a row would be absolutely insane.

Trends: The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 October road games. The Raiders are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 against Houston.

My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-20.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -5.5

O/U: 42.5

The Redskins had a terrible game last week. They're bound to rebound against Philly, especially given the added emotion provided by Donovan's return to Philly. The Eagles have been playing well, but McNabb may be able to provide some extra insight into the Eagles' gameplan. I still don't trust Philly, and I think the Skins will be riding high on emotion after being disappointed the past two weeks.

Trends: The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Philly.

As a Philly fan, JC takes the Eagles. And thinks the Cheer:Boo ratio for McNabb will be 70:30 pregame, 0:100 for the rest of the game. I say 40:60 pregame.

My Pick: Redskins +5.5. Washington wins outright 23-17.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45.5

The Chargers had a disappointing loss in week 1 and responded with a blowout win over the Jags. Another disappointing loss to Seattle should have them ready to come out strong and roll over the Cards.

Trends: The road team has covered in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home against the Cards.

JC thinks the Chargers will win, but won't cover.

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls 34-14.

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -3.5

O/U: 44

The Giants looked really bad against the Titans; the Bears beat everyone's trendy Super Bowl pick, the Green Bay Packers. So logic would suggest that the Bears should win this game. I'm not sold, however. The Bears don't look as good as their results suggest. Green Bay beat themselves, and the Cowboys played horrible in week two. I think the Giants' D line will get to Cutler, Forte will be ineffective, and the Giants will get back on track.

Trends: The past four meetings between these teams in New York have been played Over. The road team has won seven straight meetings.

My Pick: Giants -3.5. New York wins 27-21.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Pats -1

O/U: 46.5

This is a very interesting matchup. The AFC East race is bound to be interesting, and with the top three teams meeting one another from weeks 2-4, we should have a good idea of how things will play out hereafter. The Dolphins' run game should have some success against the Pats, but Brady and the Pats will likely be able to move the ball against the Fins as well. I think the Pats' experience (and a slightly better defense) will make the difference.

Trends: The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October road games. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Pats.

My Pick: Pats -1. New England wins 31-28.

Byes: DAL, KC, MIN, TB

NFL Week Three Recap

2010-09-28T11:13:00.000-07:00

Week Three Picks: 10-6

Week Three ATS: 10-6

Overall Picks: 29-19

Overall ATS: 22-23-3

Bengals Prowling

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bengals -3

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-10.

Result: Bengals 20-7

I had that game pegged. Cincy may win 10 games this year if they keep playing well. Carolina will almost certainly lose 10 games.

For Real

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: 49ers -1

O/U: 36.5

My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran is mad. Their emotion carries them to a 23-16 win.

Result: Chiefs 31-10

Wow. Kansas City is absolutely for real. I think they'll still miss the postseason, but they will probably be around 8-8, which is a heck of a lot better than anyone would have expected. San Fran is awful, and I'm embarassed to have expected them to be good.

Every Time

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -14

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Pats -14. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised by the Bills than annoyed that they blew it again. New England wins 34-0.

Result: Pats 38-30

Every time there's a big spread, the Bills screw me. I never end up getting the ATS pick right, though the Bills generally do end up losing the game. Apparently Fitzpatrick is a better fit at QB. I would have never guessed that. He's still not a long-term solution, but at least they scored some points this week.

Of course, the title "Every Time" can also refer to how often the Bills lose to the Pats...

Young Rebounds

TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Titans +3. CJ runs wild and the Titans win 24-21.

Result: Titans 29-10

Tennessee looked very good in dismantling the Giants. Vince Young's mental state was never an issue. They could be quite good this year, but will always be a question mark due to their mediocre passing game.

What Happened to the Run D?

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens 10.5

O/U: 37

My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore in a blowout, 41-10.

Result: Ravens 24-17

I thought Baltimore had a fantastic front 7...how the heck did Hillis run all over them for 144 yards? And where was the Ravens' passing game? This should have been a blowout. I have no idea what happened.

No way they were going 0-3

DALLAS COWBOYS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -2.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Cowboys +2.5. Dallas wins 27-23.

Result: Cowboys 27-13

Don't jump back on the bandwagon quite yet - Dallas did it once, but can they do it again? They obviously need to be up against some adversity (like an 0-2 start) to play well. I wonder if they'll continue to play with the intensity they had in week one, or will revert to the lifeless team we saw in weeks 1 and 2.

Also of note - no need to panic in Houston. They had a bad week, but are still a good team.

Back? Not really...

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -11.5

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Lions +11.5. The Vikings are struggling offensively, but they'll win 20-10.

Result: Vikings 24-10

I tried to get too cute with this pick, and paid the price. As you can see, I wasn't far off. Minny didn't play great, and Favre still looked rusty. Minny is glad to get the win, but has to get it together during the bye week if they're going to compete in the division.

So Close

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -3.5

O/U: 50

My Pick: Falcons +3.5. New Orleans wins by a field goal. Again. 27-24.

Result: Falcons 27-24

I almost called this pick exactly, but stupid Hartley couldn't make a freaking 29-yard field goal in OT. Atlanta didn't quite deserve the win, but now the NFC South race could get very interesting down the stretch. Both Atlanta and New Orleans are very good.

Charlie Batch? Really?

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Line: Steelers -2.5

O/U: 33.5

My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 16-7.

Result: Steelers 38-13

What a great game plan that was. Wow. Put in Charlie Batch and stretch the field? Who would have expected that? It certainly did work. Now for the real test - Can he stretch the field against Baltimore?

You should be ashamed of yourselves, Washington

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ ST LOUIS RAMS

Line: Redskins -3.5

O/U: 39

My Pick: Redskins -3.5. Washington doesn't blow the lead this week and wins 27-10.

Result: Rams 30-16

I actually watched this whole game. It was awful. Washington played like crap. How can they get so close to the endzone and have to settle for field goals every time?

The Redskins' D should be equally embarassed to have allowed the Rams to push them around. We'll see if they do any better next week against Philly. If not, it's going to be a long year in D.C,

Rolling along

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Eagles -3. Vick runs all over the Jags. Philly wins 30-17.

Result: Eagles 28-3

The Eagles' D played fantastic, and the Eagles are tied for the NFC East lead. With Kolb at QB, I expected them to finish in the NFC East cellar. Their 2 wins are against bottom-tier teams, though, so we'll know more after they host the Skins this week.

Indy Back on Track

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 48

My Pick: Colts -5.5. Indy rolls 33-20.

Result: Colts 27-13

Indy may have faltered against Houston in week one, but they have been fantastic since. I'm not sure when they'll lose again, but I don't expect it to be soon.

What's up with the Raiders?

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cardinals -4.5

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: Raiders +4.5. I didn't want to pick the Raiders again, but I don't see any way around it. Oakland wins 20-17.

Result: Cards 24-23

I was right that Arizona wouldn't blow out the Raiders, but was wrong on the outcome. I really thought the Raiders would be better this season. What's their deal? Oh yeah, I forgot - Jason Campbell is not good at football. He proved it in Washington, too.

Wow...

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Chargers -5.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Seattle +5.5. I'm going with the trends. But San Diego should still win 23-20.

Result: Seahawks 27-20

I have no idea what to make of the Seahawks, other than the notion that they're unstoppable at home and awful on the road. Granted they had 2 kick return TDs, so maybe this win was a bit of a fluke. San Diego is reeling. Look at their schedule - I'll bet 80% of the NFL thought they'd be 3-0. And they're 1-2. Wow.

Doin it with Offense

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -1.5

O/U: 35

My Pick: Jets +1.5. New York wins 23-17.

Result: Jets 31-23

The Jets' D didn't look as good as usual, but the offense was fantastic for the second week in a row, and Sanchez continues to look solid. The problem with picking the Jets is figuring out when the offense will not show up - because it's bound to happen a few more times this season.

Yellow Alert

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 46

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 19-13.

Result: Bears 20-17

The Packers managed to win the game for Chicago. Heck, they had so many penalties that they set a team record. Chicago isn't bad, but they're certainly not a Super Bowl team, so don't get too wrapped up in their early season results. Green Bay is still the best team in the NFC North.

The Bears, Steelers, and Chiefs are the only unbeatens left. It doesn't look like anyone will be challenging 16-0 this year!

NFL Week Three Preview

2010-09-23T14:19:00.000-07:00

It can't get any worse than week 2...so here we go!

Note: I'll be adding comments from a friend of the blog, JC, whenever we disagree on a pick. This should provide some discourse and allow you to make better informed choices.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bengals -3

O/U: 38.5

The general assumption would be that if Cincy's D can shut down Baltimore, they can sure as heck beat the 0-2 Panthers, who are starting Jimmy Claussen at QB. I don't see any possible way the general assumtion would be wrong, and I feel the line is absurdly small.

JC Agrees with my pick, but with the disclaimer that Jimmy Claussen gives Carolina a better option at QB than Matt Moore, and that the Cincy Pass D is a bit suspect. I disagree...they just shut down the Ravens' phenomenal passing attack, and had the league's #6 pass defense last season.

Trends: The Bengals are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 against the NFC South. The Panthers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 September home games.

My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-10.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: 49ers -1

O/U: 36.5

San Francisco stayed in it against the reigning Super Bowl Champs, and remains pissed off about its week one debacle. They won't go to 0-3, especially against a Chiefs team that has shown almost no offensive ability.

JC Takes Kansas City +1, as he is wary of the 49ers and feels "the Chiefs have played well of late and Matt Cassel has looked like a legitimate quarterback". I question whether or not JC has seen them play, as their offense hasn't been doing much of anything. It certainly could step up at any time, though.

Trends: The home team has won 7 straight meetings in this series and has been 6-1 ATS in those games. The Under is 7-1 in KC's last 8 September home games.

My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran is mad. Their emotion carries them to a 23-16 win.

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -14

O/U: 42.5

The Bills are awful. The Pats are pretty good, and are going to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Jets. Plus the Bills never beat the Pats. Ever. Like, 1 for their last 19 Ever. That's absurd. Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting. Nuff Said.

JC says "Duh" and takes New England.

Trends: The Bills have lost 18 of 19 (and 13 straight) against New England. 9 of the past 11 meetings between the two in New England have been played Under.

My Pick: Pats -14. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised by the Bills than annoyed that they blew it again. New England wins 34-0.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -3

O/U: 42.5

The Giants will rebound from their blowout loss to Indy. Tennessee will rebound from its home loss to the virtually quarterback-less Steelers. But who will come out the strongest? Questions surround Brandon Jacobs' current mental state, but Bradshaw is more important anyway.

The Titans have problems of their own, after Young was pulled in favor of Collins last week against the Steelers. Vince's mental state has been an issue in the past, and I have no idea how he'll respond to this latest setback. But can the Giants' secondary come up to fill CJ's holes the way Polamalu and the Steelers' D did? The result of this game may hinge on that matchup.

Trends: The Titans have won and covered 4 in a row against New York. The Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC South.

My Pick: Titans +3. CJ runs wild and the Titans win 24-21.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens 10.5

O/U: 37

There is no way in hell I'm picking the Browns for a third straight week. And the Ravens are ornery after last week's loss.

JC says "Ravens Ride Ray Rice Right Round Rogers".

Trends: The Browns are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 against the Ravens. The Ravens are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 September home games.

My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore in a blowout, 41-10.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -2.5

O/U: 47.5

Houston has looked good, and Dallas is totally out of sync. But I just don't see the Cowboys falling to 0-3. They're going to find a way to pull this one off.

JC takes the Texans -2.5. As an Eagles fan, he's seen the Cowboys play...and he's not impressed.

Trends: The Over is 5-1-1 the last 7 pre-bye games for Dallas. The Texans are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS their last 11 at home in September.

My Pick: Cowboys +2.5. Dallas wins 27-23.

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -11.5

O/U: 42.5

The Vikings haven't looked good enough to deserve such a lopsided line, especially against a team that has beaten the spread in its first two games. Detroit won't have such an easy time on offense against the vaunted Vikings D, but can the Purple Nurples score? They have no wide receivers.

JC thinks the Lions will win outright.

Trends: The Lions are 1-15 SU in their last 16 trips to Minnesota. The Vikings have played Over 8 of their last 9 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Lions +11.5. The Vikings are struggling offensively, but they'll win 20-10.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -3.5

O/U: 50

New Orleans may struggle without Bush, but they certainly do know how to win. Atlanta is coming off of a blowout win, and it may take them a quarter or so to get used to playing a decent team. If they get too far behind, they may not be able to catch up. It's also very hard to play in the Superdome. Nawlins does love Dem Saints!

JC Thinks the Saints will cover -3.5, because he feels Pierre Thomas will do a sufficient job in place of Reggie.

Trends: The Saints have won 7 of their last 8 against Atlanta. The Under is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 September road games.

My Pick: Falcons +3.5. New Orleans wins by a field goal. Again. 27-24.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Line: Steelers -2.5

O/U: 33.5

Pittsburgh has no quarterbacks left. Which could be a problem. Normally I wouldn't hesitate to make this pick, but Tampa has been fantastic thus far. They haven't faced the Steelers' D, though. Charlie Batch should be good enough to get the Steelers 13-17 points, and I just don't think the Bucs will score much.

JC doesn't trust Batch, but can see no outcome other than a Steelers win.

Trends: The Steelers are 6-1 in their last 7 against TB. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 16-7.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ ST LOUIS RAMS

Line: Redskins -3.5

O/U: 39

The Redskins blew it last week against Houston, and should be motivated to crush the Rams. St. Louis isn't all that good. McNabb makes the Redskins a viable offensive team, and the defense has been good for a while. They should be able to pull this one off without much difficulty.

Trends: The Redskins are 12-5 against the Rams since 1980. The Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 September home games.

My Pick: Redskins -3.5. Washington doesn't blow the lead this week and wins 27-10.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 44.5

Vick makes Philly a better team, but they need to firm up defensively if they're going to compete in the NFC East. Jacksonville hasn't been good in a while. They still aren't. Philly should pull this off.

JC is an Eagles fan, so he's obviously going with Philly.

Trends: The Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC South. The Jags are 3-0 SU and ATS all-time against the Eagles.

My Pick: Eagles -3. Vick runs all over the Jags. Philly wins 30-17.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 48

Both teams looked solid last week, but there is no question that the Colts are for real and that the Broncos are not a playoff team. I'm picking with my gut this week, and will accept the ATS loss if Denver pulls off a miracle.

Trends: The Broncos are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last 6 against Indy, all 6 of which were played Over.

My Pick: Colts -5.5. Indy rolls 33-20.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cardinals -4.5

O/U: 39.5

I went with the Raiders 2 weeks in a row and lost, so I want to make a change. Arizona was embarassed last week, and will likely rebound with a strong effort. The Raiders play down to their lesser opponents, a category which includes the Cards. Arizona might just pull this one off. It may be by less than 4.5, though.

JC agrees that the Raiders will win outright.

Trends: The Raiders have won 4 of their last 5 against Arizona. The Cards are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC West.

My Pick: Raiders +4.5. I didn't want to pick the Raiders again, but I don't see any way around it. Oakland wins 20-17.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Chargers -5.5

O/U: 44

The Chargers looked great last week, and should carry their momentum into this game in Seattle. The Seahawks will respond after a bad loss last week, but I'm not sure it will be enough. Although they did play very well at home in week one.

Trends: The Chargers are 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against Seattle. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the AFC West.

My Pick: Seattle +5.5. I'm going with the trends. But San Diego should still win 23-20.

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -1.5

O/U: 35

Wait, the Dolphins are favored? They scored 15 agianst the Bills (13 on offense) and 14 against the Vikings (7 on offense). And now they play the Jets. Who have a really, really good defense. This could be the first week we see the Dolphins' D hiccup. They have been playing well, but I doubt that they'll continue to do so.

Sanchez looked better last week. I think their offense will be fine, though inconsistent. I'm banking on them being good this week on National TV.

JC agrees that the Jets will win, but feels it will be because the Dolphins' run game doesn't match up well against the Jets' strong front 7.

Trends: The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 division road games. Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 pre-be games.

My Pick: Jets +1.5. New York wins 23-17.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 46

Green Bay is good. But the loss of Ryan Grant will catch up with them against the league's better defenses, and I think Chicago's qualifies. Cutler looked good last week, but can he do it against the Packers' D?

I'd bet on the Under, if anything, as I think both offenses will struggle a bit.

Trends: The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Chicago. The Bears are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 19-13.

NFL Week Two Recap

2010-09-23T12:20:00.000-07:00

Week Two Picks: 11-5

Week Two ATS: 5-10-1

Overall Picks: 19-13

Overall ATS: 12-17-3

Obviously I've taken a few too many chances in the first two weeks of the season...who would pick the Browns to cover twice in a row (and lose both)? Apparently I would. Awful. That won't happen again.

Another Offensive Performance

BUFFALO BILLS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -13

O/U: 43

My Pick: Bills +13. Green Bay wins 24-13.

Result: Packers 34-7

I honestly thought I picked the Packers. Whoops.

How good are the Steelers?

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -5

O/U: 36.5

My Pick: Steelers +5. This spread is just too big. Steelers win outright 17-13.

Result: Steelers 19-11

I was right on with this pick. Pittsburgh's D is formidable, and Tennessee isn't that good.

Young Guns

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Panthers -3

O/U: 39

My Pick: Panthers -3. The trends continue. Carolina wins 24-13.

Result: Bucs 20-7

Tampa is 2-0. Wow. I'm still not sure what to expect out of them, but Freeman has been very solid. And the D isn't bad, either. Carolina isn't great, but I expected more from them.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs!

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ CLEVLAND BROWNS

Line: Browns -2

O/U: 38

My Pick: Browns -2. I hate to take Cleveland again, but I really think they'll win. Browns 24-20.

Result: Chiefs 16-14

The Chiefs' offense has been disappointing, but their defense has really impressed me. They're still not a playoff team, but I expect them to get 6 or 7 wins by the end of the season.

Just Enough

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Eagles -6

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Eagles -6. I expect big things from Vick. Philly rolls 34-13.

Result: Eagles 35-32

I should have been right, but the Eagles defense decided to stop playing in the 4th quarter.

WTF?

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -5.5

O/U: 39

My Pick: Vikings -5.5. Favre tears apart Miami and the Vikes roll 30-10.

Result: Dolphins 14-10

The Vikings have no receivers, which means no passing game, which means everyone can key on AP and shut down the O. Miami's defense was good for the second week in a row, which has me reconsidering their potential.

No Surprise

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -6.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Falcons -6.5. Atlanta wins at home 27-14.

Result: Falcons 41-7

Arizona never plays well on the east coast. But this year, I don't think they're going to play well anywhere. They look pretty bad.

Cincy has Baltimore's number...

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Ravens -1.5

O/U: 40

My Pick: Bengals +1.5. I just think Cincy has Baltimore figured out lately. And they're at home. Bengals 17-14.

Result: Bengals 15-10

Baltimore has to score more than 10 points if they're going to win games. I have no idea what the Bengals' D has been doing to shut down the Ravens, but they've done it successfully 3 times in a row.

America's Nobodys

CHICAGO BEARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -7.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Cowboys -7.5. I hesitate to trust them Cowboys, but I don't think the Bears will score much. Dallas 17-6.

Result: Bears 27-20

Dallas is not in sync. They will get better, but I don't know if they'll be able to put it together enough to make the playoffs in a very tough division. Chicago is hit or miss. Hopefully I'm smart enough to pick them only when they're "hit".

Jamarcus Who?

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -3.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Raiders -3.5. I'm picking Oakland 2 weeks in a row? It's a cold day in hell. Oakland wins 23-16.

Result: Raiders 16-14

I should have known. I mentioned last week that the Raiders always play down to the competition, so it was little surprise that they let St. Louis hang around enough to beat the spread.

I Hate Denver

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -3

O/U: 40

My Pick: Seattle +3. It hurts to go against my gut on this one, but I have to say Seattle 23-13.

Result: Broncos 31-14

Last year the "Denver Trick" was to pick against my gut. The prior season, I lost the Denver game each week no matter what I did. So I guess we're back to that trend.

Blowout

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -7

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego is mad; they take it out on the Jaguars 38-17.

Result: Chargers 38-13

That pick was darn close to perfect.

Back on Track

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Patriots -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Jets +2.5. Heart beats brain in this case. We'll see if it works. Jets win 20-16.

Result: Jets 28-14

I figured the Jets would rebound from their poor week one showing. Now we'll see how good they are without Revis, assuming he's out for a week or two with his injured Hammy.

How? Wha? Huh?

HOUSTON TEXANS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-17.

Result: Texans 30-27 (ot)

Around 6pm on Sunday night I went to prepare dinner. When I returned the the TV, this game was tied. Hey Washington - What the hell happened? Don't get me wrong, the comeback to tie the spread helped me. But come on, Redskins. You have to be able to hold a 17 point lead.

Big Brother Wins Again

NEW YORK GIANTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 48

My Pick: Giants +5.5. New York covers, but Indy wins 27-24.

Result: Colts 38-14

I should have known the Colts would be out for blood. A stupid pick on my part.

Champs Keep Winning

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: Saints -5.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Saints -5.5. The 49ers have more work to do. The Saints "house" San Fran 45-10.

Result: Saints 25-22

Again, I should have known the 49ers would come out with more intensity this week. At least the Saints pulled out the victory, because without Reggie Bush they may have some issues in the coming weeks.

NFL Week Two Preview

2010-09-16T13:42:00.000-07:00

With all of the injuries sustained in week one, the NFL's second week of play should be fun...and unpredictable! Since my job is to predict, I'll do the best I can.

BUFFALO BILLS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -13

O/U: 43

The Bills looked pretty bad offensively in week one, but their defense was able to do a decent job of shutting down the Dolphins. That could be the Dolphins' own offensive futility, or it could actually mean the Bills' D is acceptable. I think it's the latter.

Green Bay's Super Bowl hopes may have flown out the door with the season-ending injury to workhorse tailback Ryan Grant, but they're still a darn good team. I was also unimpressed by the Packers' supposedly improved O-line, which was marginal at best against the Eagles.

Between the trends and the fact that the Packers are virtually without a run game from here on out, I'm tempted to pick the Bills to beat the spread. I'm just worried that the Bills won't score enough points to keep it within 13. Note: The game's outcome has never come into question; just the spread.

That said, enough things can go wrong for the Packers on defense and special teams to help the Bills beat such a large spread. Plus Buffalo has to be embarassed to be the season's first double-digit dog.

Trends: The Bills have played Under 5 of their last 6 against the NFC NOrth. Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against B-Lo.

My Pick: Bills +13. Green Bay wins 24-13.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -5

O/U: 36.5

Did the oddsmakers smoke some rock prior to creating the line on this game? Yeah, it's in Tennessee, but the Titans aren't THAT good. And Pittsburgh beat a solid Falcons team last Sunday. This spread is way out of whack, and I have no choice but to pick the Steelers.

The idea of a spread is to create a point at which it's a 50/50 chance that the game will be played on either side of the created line. There is at LEAST a 60%+ chance that the Steelers win this game or lose by less than 5. Especially with Polamalu in there to plug up CJ's holes.

Trends: The past 4 meetings between these teams in Tennessee have been played Over. Pittsburgh hasn't beaten the spread in its last 5 September road games.

My Pick: Steelers +5. This spread is just too big. Steelers win outright 17-13.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Panthers -3

O/U: 39

Tampa got a win in week one, but the Browns looked awfully bad. Carolina has a potent dual-pronged running attack, and I expect them to have success against Tampa's D. Even if Tampa drives the Cadillac all game long and gets great play from Josh Freeman, I see them going down.

Trends: 8 of the Bucs' last 10 trips to Carolina have been played Under. Carolina is 7-2 ATS n their last 9 at home against TB.

My Pick: Panthers -3. The trends continue. Carolina wins 24-13.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ CLEVLAND BROWNS

Line: Browns -2

O/U: 38

The oddsmakers did a good job on this line...despite the Chiefs' win, their offense looked awful, and their positive special teams plays can be negated by the Browns, who also have excellent special teams. I'm not exactly high on the Browns right now, but they know that their season will be a complete bust if they can't beat at least one of their first two "easier" opponents. I expect them to come out with the mentality that a loss is simply not an option.

The Chiefs are coming off of a big divisional win, and may falter against Cleveland. KC has the speed and talent to be dangerous, but I think the Browns' run D (namely Shaun Rogers) can keep the Chiefs' backs in check and shut down the KC offense.

Trends: All 4 meetings between these teams since 2002 have been played Over. The Chiefs have lost 8 of their last 9 September road games.

My Pick: Browns -2. I hate to take Cleveland again, but I really think they'll win. Browns 24-20.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Eagles -6

O/U: 41.5

Michael Vick looked fantastic last week against Green Bay. Just throwing that out there...

Both teams are forced to play back-up QBs due to injury, but Philly's problems only begin at the helm. Their outstanding fullback Leonard Weaver and a big piece of their O-line Jamal Jackson are both out as well. And they don't have a Vick-caliber back up at those positions.

So while I feel Shaun Hill will not have much success for Detroit, I worry that Detroit's solid front 4 will be able to put pressure on Vick and keep him in (or near...) the pocket, and that without Weaver the running game will suffer. 6 points is quite a big spread when the road team is favored.

At the end of the day, I think Philly has too much talent at the skill positions to be completely shut down on offense, and their defense should be able to handle Detroit.

Trends: The Eagles are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC North. The Lions are 3-10 in their last 13 games against the NFC East.

My Pick: Eagles -6. I expect big things from Vick. Philly rolls 34-13.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -5.5

O/U: 39

Minnesota impressed me in their loss to New orleans, simply because Favre didn't look awful and the defense did a great job controlling one of the league's best offenses. Miami's offense looked sluggish in Buffalo, and the Vikings have a much better defense than the Bills. The big Williams boys down low won't be letting Ronnie and Ricky run wild.

Miami's defense looked OK, but I expect them to get exposed against Favre and Peterson. They really didn't get much of a challenge from the Bills, although their tackling was some of the best I've seen in a long, long time.

Trends: The Dolphins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 September road games. The Vikings are 3-1 in their last 4 against Miami.

My Pick: Vikings -5.5. Favre tears apart Miami and the Vikes roll 30-10.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -6.5

O/U: 43

Less than a touchdown? Like taking candy from a baby...

Arizona looks awful, and generally plays like crap when they have to travel all the way to the east coast. Atlanta is a much better team than they showed last week, and will be out looking for redemption.

Trends: The Over is 6-1-1 in these teams' last 8 meetings. The Falcons have played to the Over in 10 of their last 12 September games.

My Pick: Falcons -6.5. Atlanta wins at home 27-14.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Ravens -1.5

O/U: 40

This may be the most intriguing matchup of the week. The Bengals won both games against the Ravens last year, so you have to wonder if they may just know how to play (and beat) Baltimore. Then again, they beat the Ravens twice last year, so Ray Lewis and company will be out looking for blood.

Cincinnati didn't look like the hard-nosed grind-em-out squad that won 10 games last year - They looked a little soft. Cincy tends to ebb and flow, and after a playoff year I'm thinking they might be in for a tough campaign in 2010. But we'll see - Maybe they'll beat the Ravens this week.

Baltimore's defense looked fantastic this past Monday night. Then again, New York refused to challenge the Ravens' banged-up secondary, so it is possible that Carson Palmer, TO, and Ochocinco will be able to score at will. Cincy will be motivated, as they don't want to start 0-2. The Ravens will be motivated by their two losses to the Bengals last year. Which means Ray Lewis is angry. You don't want to play Ray Lewis when he's angry.

Trends: Cincy is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS and SU in their last 5 against Cincy.

My Pick: Bengals +1.5. I just think Cincy has Baltimore figured out lately. And they're at home. Bengals 17-14.

CHICAGO BEARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -7.5

O/U: 40.5

Dallas looked AWFUL on Sunday Night. Just awful. Penatlies, dumb play calls, and more. Just a big ball of terrible.

Chicago didn't look a whole lot better. They barely beat Detroit, and that's if you think they should have won at all after the controversial call in the endzone toward the end of the game. If Detroit can move the ball somewhat effectively against the Bears, so can the Cowboys.

Not to mention, the Cowboys have to be PISSED. I'm sure they worked on not taking penalties all week long, and I doubt they'll have that issue again. Plus the Dallas D ain't no joke. I'd worry about the spread being more than a touchdown if it weren't for the Cowboy defense. I just don't expect the Bears to score many points.

Trends: 7 of these teams' past 9 meetings have been played Under. The Cowboys are 8-3 in their last 11 games against the NFC North.

My Pick: Cowboys -7.5. I hesitate to trust them Cowboys, but I don't think the Bears will score much. Dallas 17-6.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -3.5

O/U: 37.5

My thought on last week's Raiders debacle is that Oakland is a team that plays to its competition. In other words, I expect them to surprise good teams and lose to crappy ones. Then again, St. Louis is a little too crappy for my theory to work. Plus the Raiders have to be mad about week one.

They should take their frustrations out on Bradford and the Rams. Especially with Michael Bush back in the backfield (hopefully).

Trends: The Under is 8-1 in St. Louis' last 9 September road games. Oakland is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 September home games.

My Pick: Raiders -3.5. I'm picking Oakland 2 weeks in a row? It's a cold day in hell. Oakland wins 23-16.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -3

O/U: 40

This game is anyone's guess. Seattle killed the 49ers last week, but are they for real? Denver flopped against Jacksonville, but they have the talent to step up big at any time. How much money do you win if you bet on a push against the line and are correct? I kinda want to try that. I wonder if they'd even let you.

The game is in Denver (where the air is thin...), I still think the Denver defense, even without Dumerville, has the ability to be quite good, and I have no idea what to expect from Seattle. Plus the Broncos are coming off a loss and will be pushing hard to get the home W, while the Seahawks may experience a hangover from their big win against San Fran.

I have talked myself into picking Denver, which means I have to go against rational thought and choose Seattle. Don't mock me; it's my process.

Trends: Seattle is 3-11 in their last 14 against Denver. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 against the NFC West.

My Pick: Seattle +3. It hurts to go against my gut on this one, but I have to say Seattle 23-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -7

O/U: 45.5

The Jaguars might as well just stay home an forfeit. We all know San Diego has plenty of talent, and despite their questionable performance on Monday night, they'll be ready to play against the Jags. Merriman may be back, but even if he's not, nothing pisses off the Chargers more than losing to the Chiefs.

The Jags beat the Broncos last week, but they're the middle-of-the-road team in the AFC West. Now they have to deal with the Bolts - the AFC West's best. It'll be lights out for the Jags.

Trends: The Jags are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 September road games. All three meetings between these two teams have been played Over.

My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego is mad; they take it out on the Jaguars 38-17.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Patriots -2.5

O/U: 38

The Jets are normally a nasty team, so coming off a loss, as home dogs, I expect them to be VERY ready to play. But do they have the talent to compete? New England looked awfully good in week one. Without Kris Jenkins, the Jets will have a harder time stopping the run. But New England doesn't run that much anyway. They're a pass-first offense.

I think last week was deceptive for both teams; the Jets are better than they looked, and the Pats aren't quite as good. I also have to take into account that, for some reason, these teams play really well in the other's stadium. So the road team may automatically have an advantage.

All rational thought says to go with the Pats, but I just don't see Rex Ryan and the Jets defense allowing that to happen when they're this angry. And when 0-2 could spell disaster for their supposed Super Bowl run.

Trends: New England is 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 trips to NYC. The Jets have played Over in 6 of their last 8 September home games.

My Pick: Jets +2.5. Heart beats brain in this case. We'll see if it works. Jets win 20-16.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 43.5

The Texans looked awfully good against Indy, but the Redskins defense is significantly better than that of the Colts. McNabb and the Redskins O didn't do much against the Cowboys, but the Texans' D isn't nearly as good as Dallas'. Haynesworth is being a pain in the ass, but the distraction doesn't seem to be hurting the team too much.

I think the Redskins' defense will hold down Arian Foster and the Texans run game, and Schaub will be under enough pressure to make a mistake or two. McNabb will be better, as will Portis. If the trends are right, and the game is played Under the total, Washington could win. But I think Houston has just enough firepower to keep the state of Texas from being swept in D.C. in back-to-back weeks.

Trends: The Texans have played Under 5 of their last 6 against the NFC East. The Under is 8-2 the last 10 Redskins' September home games.

My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-17.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 48

Round 1 went to older brother Peyton. Round 2 should go the same way. The Giants are coming off a big win at home in week one, but the loss of Kevin Boss will hurt their pass game a bit. The Bob Sanders injury is devastating for Indy, but they will be fired up after losing in Houston, and will be ready to get the season back on track with a win.

I expect Indy to win...but by how much? The Giants are good, so I doubt either team will run away with it. Neither has the explosiveness to score on special teams, so I doubt that will make up the difference. Anthony Gonzalez hurt himself in week one, which will affect the Colts passing attack, but I expect them to focus a little more on the run this week anyway.

Trends: The road team has won 4 of the teams' 5 meetings since 1990. The Colts have lost 3 in a row ATS at home in September.

My Pick: Giants +5.5. New York covers, but Indy wins 27-24.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: Saints -5.5

O/U: 44

The 49ers were embarassed last week, and should be out to prove themselves this week on Monday Night Football. Add to that the potential for New Orleans to be rusty after their extended layoff, and this could be a darn good game.

The Saints D looked good against Minnesota, but the offense had issues. I expect that some of the kinks have been worked out by now, and can safely assume that New Orleans will score at least 20 points in week 2. San Fran may be upset, but Seattle isn't that good. I just don't see them losing to the Seahawks and beating the Saints in a span of 8 days.

San Fran looked pretty bad, and with the Saints D playing well, they won't be lighting up the scoreboard against Nawlins.

Trends: The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against San Fran. The last 6 games between these two teams in San Francisco were played Over.

My Pick: Saints -5.5. The 49ers have more work to do. The Saints "house" San Fran 45-10.

NFL Week One Recap

2010-09-14T18:09:00.000-07:00

Week One Picks: 8-8

Week One ATS: 7-7-2

Overall Picks: 8-8

Overall ATS: 7-7-2

This was a typical week one. Having not seen the teams play, I had an idea what might transpire, but didn't have the cojones to make the "big pick" I needed.

I wanted to take the Chiefs over the Chargers and the Redskins over the Cowboys...but I chickened out and only picked them to cover; not to win.

Speaking of knowing what you're talking about...two pushes this week(3 if the Bills hadn't gotten "creative"...) show that the oddsmakers have really done their preseason homework!

So much for offense

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

LINE: Saints -4.5

O/U: 48

My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans by a touchdown at home, 31-24.

Result: Saints 19-14

I was right, but way off on the over under. Then again, so was everyone else.

Homers

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

LINE: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Steelers +2.5. Pittsburgh wins its home opener 18-17.

Result: Steelers 15-9

I was dead on with this pick. You don't bet against the Steelers as a home dog in week one. You just don't. No need to worry in Atlanta, though, as they should still be a great team.

This is what happens when you pick the Raiders...

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -6.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Raiders +6.5. I can't believe I'm betting on the Raiders. Oakland wins outright, 24-20.

Result: Titans 38-13

The Raiders didn't just get beat. They got destroyed. I seem to have forgotten that Oakland only plays well against better opponents. Of course, the Titans also looked a LOT better than I thought they would.

So who won?

DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 43

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago doesn't blow up the scoreboard, but they handle the Lions O, 16-6.

Result: Bears 19-14

If I was going to lose this game to the spread anyway, I'd rather have seen the Lions win. Then again, they did win. But they're the Lions, and seem to have found a new, creative way to lose. Well done, Detroit.

Back to the old strategy...

DENVER BRONCOS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jaguars -2.5

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: Broncos +2.5. Denver wins outright 13-10.

Result: Jags 24-17

It only took the Broncos one week to force me to go back to my old "Denver picking strategy". From now on, I will simply pick the opposite of whatever makes rational sense when the Broncos are involved. You may laugh, but the past few years have proven this technique quite effective.

Big Blue's House

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 41

My Pick: Giants -7. New York opens its stadium in style, 27-10.

Result: Giants 31-18

With the Jets' loss, the G-men have, for the moment, taken ownership of their new palace. They looked pretty darn good, too.

Brown is the color of...

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -3

O/U: 37

My Pick: Browns +3. Cleveland shows signs of life. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt until they lose it. Which will probably happen before week 2. Browns 23-21.

Result: Bucs 17-14

Tampa is young and has some talent. I should have realized that Cleveland would be one of their 3 or 4 wins on the year. But who does that leave for Cleveland to beat? By the way, I was totally right about Cleveland losing the benefit of the doubt before week 2...

No surprises

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Dolphins -3

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 24-13.

Result: Dolphins 15-10

I'm a bit surprised at how bad the Dolphins offense looked, but the defense got the job done. Although the Bills' late game antics are the only reason Miami beat the spread.

It was bound to happen

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Colts -2.5. I expect both teams to light up the scoreboard, but the Colts will hang on 31-28.

Result: Texans 34-24

At 1-15 all-time against the Colts, you had to figure the Texans would get it done at some point. Peyton threw for a ton of yards, so obviously the Indy offense will be OK. Though they better get Addai on board if they want to be a powerhouse again.

Arian Foster showed that he has the potential to be a fantastic back in the NFL, and with Slaton behind him, the Texans are an offense to reckon with once again. If the defense plays well, they could get over the hurdle and make the postseason.

Deceptive Blowout

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -4.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Let's go with the trends! Cincy covers, but doesn't win. Pats 24-20.

Result: Pats 38-24

New England got out to a big lead, but their dismantling of the Bengals was deceptive. One touchdown was on defense; another on special teams. So their offense tied the Bengals at 24. But turnovers and special teams are a part of the game, and the Pats were clearly the better team.

Cincy needs to work on a few things, but they should still be able to reach 10 wins.

WHAT???

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: 49ers -2.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Fran rolls 30-13.

Result: Seahawks 31-6

If I had to pick the week one game I was most confident in, it may have been this one. I didn't think this would be a contest. I need to re-evaluate how good the 49ers are, and obviously need to take a look at the Seahawks as well. Yikes.

He's Baaaack

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Packers -2.5 But I think the Eagles will give them a game. Green Bay 24-20.

Result: Packers 27-20

I was bascially dead-on with the pick, but didn't realize Vick would be the one to make me look good. He makes the Eagles a better team. Either we need to see a lot of Vick from here on out, or we won't see any of Andy Reid next season.

Decent Debut

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Cards -4

O/U: 39

My Pick: Cards -4. Arizona wins 17-10.

Result: Cards 17-13

I was close. Oh well. Bradford looked ok and didn't make too many mistakes. I expect that to change. The Cards looked "iffy". I don't expect that to change.

HAHAHAHAHA...Idiots

DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Cowboys -3.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Washington covers, but Dallas ekes out a late victory, 17-16.

Result: Redskins 13-7

Dallas beat themselves. The play before halftime was ridiculous. And they really need to stop taking penalties. Just awful. Both teams showed solid D, but I question the ability of either offense to carry their team deep in the playoffs.

Two good defenses, but only one passable offense

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -2

O/U: 36.5

My Pick: Jets -2. New York gets off to a hot start, 20-14.

Result: Ravens 10-9

Both teams showed strong defenses, but the Jets' inability to capitalize on turnovers was simply inexcusable. They also refused to attack a weakened Ravens' secondary. At all.

If the Ravens D plays that well every week, they have enough offense to run the table. Seriously. But I assume the next opponent will be smart enough to attack their secondary.

I said the Chiefs were not to be overlooked...

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chargers -5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chiefs +5. San Diego still wins 27-25.

Result: Chiefs 21-14

Kansas City's win doesn't surprise me, but the success of their defense does. The rain and wind helped, but they did a fantastic job against a very good offense. Don't get too crazy about the Chiefs, though. Their 2 offensive touchdowns were each on 3 play drives, and they sustained NOTHING otherwise.

San Diego looked a bit discombobulated. They need to sign the guys who are holding out. Now.

NFL Week One Preview

2010-09-05T21:52:00.000-07:00

Another NFL season is upon us, and with it comes the excitement of a clean slate.

Will the Saints rise to the top again this season, or will parity once again reign in the NFC South? Can any of the league's worst teams make a remarkable turnaround and push toward the postseason?

Was 2009 a fluke, or can Brett Favre put up MVP-type numbers yet again?

I'm not going to offer full preseason picks this year, as I felt they may have swayed some of my decisions last season. Instead, I'll pose a few "big picture" predictions.

1. The Saints will be very good again, and will become the first team in division history to win the NFC South in consecutive years.

2. Favre won't be as good, but may still lead the Vikings to the NFC title game or beyond. He's not the only player on that team, in case you hadn't noticed.

3. My Bills will be among the 3 worst teams in football, will not make the playoffs, and will extend the NFL's longest current playoff drought. Boo.

4. Trent Edwards still isn't good enough. I would take any of the other 31 opening day starters over Edwards.

5. Matt Moore will be a viable option in Carolina, though the team may still miss the playoffs.

6. Kevin Kolb is not going to be as good as McNabb. Not even close.

7. The Redskins will be decent. The Raiders will be decent. The Lions will be decent.

Now for week one's picks...keep in mind that I was correct STRAIGHT UP over 66% of the time last year. So if you have a buddy who will bet with you straight up, you might be well served to take my advice.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 9TH

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

LINE: Saints -4.5

O/U: 48

This is the perfect way to start the NFL season. We get to see if last year's champs are back in top form, and we get to see if Brett Favre will finally start to play his age.

I think the Saints will come out of the gates hungry to show that they are a force to be reckoned with once again, and I worry that Favre won't be as good as he was last year.

It may sound crazy after all that the hall of fame QB has done in his career, but I once again feel as if he needs to prove himself to me before I put any confidence in his abilities.

If you look at Favre's stats, last year was a huge statistical anomaly. Maybe he's more comfortable. Maybe he's "older and wiser", and making better decisions. Or maybe he had one good year. The question marks for the Vikings, including the loss of Sidney Rice for the first few games and the trouble Percy Harvin has been having with migraines, make this an easy pick. The Saints are at home for the first time since winning it all. The intensity will be off the charts. Saints fans will be amped up. And the Vikings have a 40-year-old QB with a blown tire.

Trends: Minny is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against New Orleans. The Over has gone 8-1-1 in the two teams' last ten head-to-head matchups.

My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans by a touchdown at home, 31-24.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 12TH

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

LINE: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 38

Another outstanding week one matchup. Pittsburgh is without Big Ben, but will still be a darn good team. And all subtracting Big Ben does is lead to uncertainty.

Leftwich and Dixon are both viable options, and could lead the team capably in Ben's absence. Or they could struggle and give away a game entirely.

Atlanta should contend for a playoff spot, especially if everyone stays healthy. I'm talking to you, Michael Turner.

I'd bet on Turner having a big year, especially if Matt Ryan continues to make solid decisions. Analysts always say that a strong run game can open up the pass.

In this case, the Falcons' passing threat may help open up a few extra lanes for Michael Turner, rather than allowing the defense to solely key on him.

Polamalu should be back and ready to play, shoring up the Steelers defense against both the run and the pass. Pittsburgh has the all-around talent to make the Super Bowl, but we'll have to see if they execute well enough to make that happen. I don't expect any miraces from the Steelers' offense in the first four weeks, but the defense will keep them in games, and I expect this one to be close. In the end, the difference maker for me is that Pittsburgh has been well aware of its QB situation for quite some time. They know they need to step up, and have had plenty of time to get Dixon and Leftwich the reps they needed with the first-team offense.

If preparation alone isn't enough to make me think the Steelers will cover, I have to consider that Pittsburgh is a home underdog to a non-playoff team in week one.

A tough-nosed team like the Steelers won't take kindly to such an insult.

Trends: Atlanta has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 openers and that Pittsburgh has played to the Over in 7 of its past 9 week one games. I'm going against both.

My Pick: Steelers +2.5. Pittsburgh wins its home opener 18-17.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -6.5

O/U: 40.5

The Raiders are a much improved team, and will win quite a few games this season. The trick is figuring out which ones! Tennessee could be anywhere from great to awful, though mediocre sounds about right.

I worry that the Titans don't have enough options to scare defenses away from simply keying on Chris Johnson on every single down, and in today's NFL, a one man team wins nothing. The defense should be solid, but I certainly don't think they're a Super Bowl contender. Then again, I didn't think much of them in '08 either, when they were insanely good, mostly because of their dominant D.

Jason Campbell is a much better option than Russell ever was in Oakland, and if McFadden comes into his own this season, Oakland could finish second in the AFC West. They've also got a very capable defense with a tremendous front four and one of the league's best cover corners in Nnamdi Asomugha. Will they win the Super Bowl? Hell no. But they're good enough to get more respect than a spread of 6.5 @ Tennessee.

Trends: Oakland has played 7 straight week one road Overs. Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 openers.

My Pick: Raiders +6.5. I can't believe I'm betting on the Raiders. Oakland wins outright, 24-20.

DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 43

Chicago's defense is healthy again. That oughta scare the NFC North. The Bears have always prided themselves on great defense, and they've got a great set of linebackers, have added an insanely good pass rusher, and could (key word: COULD) be one of the best defensive units in the league. Of course, we'll have to wait and see how they perform. Their quarterback has plenty of talent, but can Mike Martz's system be the answer to all of Cutler's troubles? Will Knox, Hester, or Aromashodu step up to make the big plays the Bears will need to contend in a stacked division? And can Matt Forte produce yet again?

Though many questions surround the Bears, it seems as though even more follow the Lions. Detroit should be better, but in such a solid division, how much room for improvement is there?

Can Stafford move to elite quarterback status? Will he be protected enough to have the chance? Can the defense, which looks stellar on paper, play together, and with pride, to keep the Lions in games when the offense struggles?

Though questions surround both teams, in the end, the Bears have the talent to potentially stack up against the Packers and Vikings, while the Lions simply don't. They're good, but are young and need a little more time.

Chicago has been good against the Lions lately, is playing at home, and would love to get off to a fast start. Detroit still needs to learn how to win.

Trends: Chicago has won 8 of the last 10 meetings. 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams were played Over.

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago doesn't blow up the scoreboard, but they handle the Lions O, 16-6.

DENVER BRONCOS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jaguars -2.5

O/U: 39.5

Denver got off to a great start last year, and I expect the same from them this season. Brandon Marshall is a talented guy, but was as much a distraction in Denver as he was a playmaker. The loss of Dumervil will hurt the Broncos much more, but I don't see Jacksonville taking advantage of his absence. Bailey may be a bit old, but he's still a phenomenal corner who can shut down Mike Sims-Walker. And if he can't, Brian Dawkins can help out, and the net effect will be the same.

With Sims-Walker out of the picture, Jacksonville will have to focus even more on the running game, and I'm confident that the Broncos can eat up MJD if they're able to stack 7+ in the box every down.

Denver was very confident coming out of training camp last year, and I expect more of the same. Whether they are still good after week 6 is still TBD.

Trends: Jags 9-2 ATS past 11 week 1 games. Broncos have played to the Under in 4 of their last 5 week one road games.

My Pick: Broncos +2.5. Denver wins outright 13-10.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 41

Will the Giants underwhelm in the first regular season game in their opulent new palace? The Giants defense looks to be good again, but I said that last year and it didn't materialize. The defensive line could be one of the best ever, but again, it didn't play that way last season. We'll have to see if they're hungrier in 2010. The offense hasn't changed much, and I expect Brandon Jacobs to have a better year after somewhat underwhelming everyone with his numbers last season.

Carolina may be a bit one-dimensional, as I'm not sure how good Matt Moore will be at QB. His numbers were great in the few starts he had last year, but I still consider him an unproven guy. My bet is that he'll be better than Kolb will be in Philly, but still not good enough to be labeled the next Tom Brady. In week one, I expect a steady dose of the Panthers' two-pronged running attack, which is probably the best in the league. I just wonder if the passing game will scare anyone enough to keep teams from stacking the box and taking the run game off the table.

Trends: Under is 10-2-1 for the past 13 Carolina openers. The Giants are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 September games.

My Pick: Giants -7. New York opens its stadium in style, 27-10.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -3

O/U: 37

The Bucs have plenty of talent, but it's all young talent. It will take some time for them to learn how to win consistently at the NFL level. Cleveland has new leadership in Mike Holmgren, and should be a better football team.

They've got one of the best O-lines in football, but the guy they put behind that line will be the one who decides which direction the Browns will travel. If Delhomme throws the ball to his own team's players, the Browns could be a decent squad.

The Browns have a game-changing special teams player in Josh Cribbs, but the major question is whether or not last year's 31st-ranked defense can greatly improve.

Trends: Neither team has been good ATS in week 1 in recent years: CLE 0-5 last 5, TB 2-7 last 9.

My Pick: Browns +3. Cleveland shows signs of life. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt until they lose it. Which will probably happen before week 2. Browns 23-21.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Dolphins -3

O/U: 38.5

The Bills may come into this game a bit miffed that they're home dogs in week 1. Then again, they are the Bills. I don't expect much from them this season, save for a few highlight reel plays from CJ Spiller. Though I would have rather seen them draft a QB.

Miami is one of the three teams who will compete for the AFC East crown this year, possibly right up until week 17. The Fins, Jets, and Pats are all comparably solid, and any of the three could go very far if they play to their potential.

The Fins got a huge boost to their passing game in Brandon Marshall, which will open up a little extra space for the dual threat running backs, Williams and Brown. Henne is a competent QB, and should be able to get the ball to his playmakers.

The defense needs solid play from some young, unproven guys, but if they get it, this team could go far. I also like the addition of Karlos Dansby, although I worry he'll be the only bright spot for a bottom-tier defense.

Trends: Bills are 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 times they're hosted the Fins. Miami has only beaten the spread once in its last 6 trips to B-Lo.

My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 24-13.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 46.5

The history between these two teams is pathetically one-sided, but the Texans have slowly been catching up to the Colts, and will certainly prove a challenge this season. Schaub is quickly becoming an elite QB, and he has the weapons to shred nearly any secondary.

The defense is mediocre, but they're young, so I expect them to keep getting better. If Slaton stops putting the ball on the ground and lives up to his potential, they could make a playoff push.

Indy is always good. They're the NFL's model of consistency. Good receivers (Anthony Gonzalez is back...that should help), a hall-of-fame QB, a solid tailback, and a reasonably good defense. It's a combo that has worked very well for many years now.

The Colts seem to win 12 games every season. And they usually start out with a sizeable undefeated streak. They'll be good again, but we'll have to see how Bob Sanders plays to know how good. He's the heart of the defense, and if he's 100%, look out.

Trends: Indy has won 15 of 16 all time meetings. The Over is 9-1 in the teams' last 10 matchups.

My Pick: Colts -2.5. I expect both teams to light up the scoreboard, but the Colts will hang on 31-28.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -4.5

O/U: 45

The Bengals are a legitimately good football team. They have a strong defense, especially against the pass, and have the weapons on offense to blow people out. TO will help to relieve some of Ochocinco's double-teams, and the two will likely co-exist nicely.

I wish they'd throw the ball more, but even with their run first mentality, I think they'll win a lot of games. The problem is, so will the Patriots. New England will rebound from a sub-par year, and should challenge for the division title.

Brady has plenty of weapons on offense, and Belichick could coach St. Mary's school for the blind to a winning record in the NFL. I'm concerned, however, about the defense, and how it will hold up against the league's best offenses.

Cincy surprised some people last year, and won't be flying under the radar this season. I still think they'll give the Pats a run for their money, and am a bit weary of picking a defense I don't trust to hold down a great offense.

Trends: Benglas 8-2 ATS past 10 vs. Pats, but 0-2 in their last 2. Pats 6-1 SU in their last 7 against Cincy.

My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Let's go with the trends! Cincy covers, but doesn't win. Pats 24-20.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: 49ers -2.5

O/U: 37.5

San Francisco could be legitimately GOOD this year. Not just OK; GOOD. Alex Smith is still a question mark, but has been "coached up" very well this offseason, and if he releases the ball as quickly as he has in the preseason, he'll keep himself off the turf.

The defense of a Mike Singletary-coached team is bound to be good, and this is no exception. They play with tenacity and anger, just as you'd expect. Crabtree is a year older and had the benefit of a full training camp this season, so expect him to be much better.

Frank Gore is an elite tailback, not only for his running ability, but also for his ability to pick up blocks on passing plays. This team has all the pieces...in a few years, they may even be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Seattle is in rebuilding mode, and even Pete Carroll can't magically make this team win more than 6 games. There is talent on their roster, but unless a guy like Deion Branch or Julius Jones can really step up and have a career year, I just don't see it being a fun season in Seattle.

Trends: 49ers 5-1-1 ATS in their past 7 week one games. Seattle is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 September home games.

My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Fran rolls 30-13.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 47.5

Wow. The Packers are favored on the road in Philly to start the season. I guess the oddsmakers don't trust Kolb either! Green Bay is supposed to be really, really good this year. I'm not sold. Yet. I see the potential, but need the proof.

Aaron Rodgers has great numbers, but I have no assurance that the offensive line has made enough improvements to keep him on his feet. I'm not a huge fan of Ryan Grant, and just can't bring myself to count on him playing consistently each week.

The receiving corps is OK, but Driver is old and they don't have a ton of depth. The defense is pretty good, but Al Harris is one of the integral pieces in their pass defense, and with him on the PUP list, I wonder if they'll have a few major breakdowns.

Philly has a good team outside of Kolb, who I just don't think is good enough to be a starting NFL QB. We'll see; maybe I'm wrong. Desean Jackson is a great playmaker, and Lasean McCoy is turning into a very capable back.

The Eagles D was 12th in the league last year, and remains much the same. Given the time they've had to gel together, I expect them to be even better. That said, I'm no idiot. I wasn't at training camp, and the guys who were say the Packers are the real deal.

So for now, until I have reason to believe otherwise, I'll go with the Pack.

Trends: Packers have played Over 8 of last 10 september road games. Eagles have played Under 4 of last 5 week 1 games. Talk about some helpful trends...

My Pick: Packers -2.5 But I think the Eagles will give them a game. Green Bay 24-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Cards -4

O/U: 39

I think confidence will be a huge problem for the Cardinals this season on both sides of the ball. They lost a defensive leader in Dansby and the man who was supposed to lead the offense, Matt Leinart. They still have Fitzgerald, but he can't do it himself.

Anderson has fizzled before, and though he beat out Leinart, I'm sure he'll fizzle again. Without much of an identity, and after all of the craziness surrounding their quarterback battle this preseason, I just don't think they'll be very good...Unless they can use San Francisco's resurgence, and the subsequent departure of the media's affection, to arouse their spirit and push them to victory.

St. Louis is rebuilding, but they seem to have found a solid piece to build around in Sam Bradford. He'll make a few big mistakes, but it'll be hard to pick when and where those mistakes will come. He could have a great game and beat the Cards, or he could throw 3 picks and get blown out. Stephen Jackson is a solid back, but I wonder if he'll ever return to the form he found a few years ago. My guess is no.

The Rams were 29th in total offense and defense last season. I think both will improve, but not by much. This is a tough pick, however, as the Cards could completely phone this game in. All told, I think Whisenhunt is a good enough coach to have his boys prepared for the challenge.

Trends: Cards are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against St. Louis. Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 week 1 games. I guess those numbers make this pick a little easier...

My Pick: Cards -4. Arizona wins 17-10.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Cowboys -3.5

O/U: 40.5

Dallas is a trendy pick to reach the Super Bowl to be held in their own stadium, but I still have yet to see Tony Romo mature into a Super Bowl caliber QB. He's good, but not great. He's led his team to the playoffs, but not much further. And the same can be said of his head coach, Wade Phillips.

The Cowboys will again have a very stout defense, but can they put it all together? They have the weapons, but can they develop the positive attitude they need to move to the next level? A recent interview with Romo was very telling. He kept repeating "we need to get better", pretty much no matter what the question was. Through the whole interview he hung his head, and he didn't look to have much confidence in his, or his team's, performance in that preseason game. He came across as a little kid who was having a temper tantrum. Maybe he was just stuck on one or two bad plays. But if I were on that team, I'd want my leader to say either "it's the preseason, we'll be ready to go when the regular season gets here", or "we're getting better". Not "we NEED to get better".

The Redskins are going to be much better, not just because McNabb is their new QB, but also because Mike Shanahan is going to be behind the bench. Shanahan is an elite coach, and I expect an instant turnaround. He's already laid down the law with Haynesworth, and from what I've seen and heard, I think that will help the team more than it will distract them. Santana Moss may be their only elite receiver, but Cooley is a great pass-catching tight end, and the combination of the two of them should suffice until one of the other young receivers can step up to become a legit #2 option for McNabb.

Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson should be an outstanding running back tandem. I think the change in coach and QB will instill in them, and the rest of the team, the confidence needed to play at the elite level required of any NFC East team with playoff aspirations.

My bet is that the Redskins will give the Cowboys a little more than they were expecting at Fedex field in week one.

Trends: Dallas is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games @ Washington. The Redskins have played Under in 6 of their last 7 week one games.

My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Washington covers, but Dallas ekes out a late victory, 17-16.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13TH

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -2

O/U: 36.5

These teams will both be very good, and may end up meeting again later in the season with much more on the line. Baltimore has a fantastic offensive prognosis, but question marks surround the defense. After the Ravens reign as a defensive juggernaut for the last ten years, it's a bit of a strange twist. But the fact that most of the team's issues surround the defense makes me think they'll be very, very good, as I just can't imagine the Ravens defense being anything but dominant. Ed Reed will get healthy. Ray Lewis may be old, but he's mean enough to overcome it. There is enough talent in the Ravens secondary that, assuming they all stay healthy and play up to their potential, they'll be a Super Bowl contender. Ray Rice is a great young talent, and the addition of Anquan Boldin will help Baltimore to stretch the field. It should be another good year in Baltimore.

The Jets seem to be everyone's choice to make the Super Bowl. I love what Rex Ryan has done in NY, and I see great things for the franchise. He's my pick for the best coach in the NFL, from the way he interacts with his players, to the way he inspires confidence, to the way he gets the best out of every man on every down. This Jets team will be good, but can their second-year QB carry them to the promised land? Sanchez has a lot on his shoulders, but he seems to be the type of kid who can handle it. A few other bits and pieces: LT is going to have a big comeback year, Shonn Greene will be good again, and Darrelle Revis will be good, but can he be as effective as he was last season after missing all of camp?

This is a tough matchup for both teams, but now that Revis is back, Rex Ryan should have the edge on his former squad. Harbaugh has offense, but against that Jets D, it may not make much of a difference. Both teams will be amped to play, there will be many big hits and huge defensive stops, and assuming everyone survives, I'm going with the Jets.

Trends: The Ravens are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7 games against the Jets. The Jets have played 4 straight week 1 Unders.

My Pick: Jets -2. New York gets off to a hot start, 20-14.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chargers -5

O/U: 44.5

San Diego will be good again, but the problems with Vincent Jackson won't help. They have a few weapons, but not enough for them to perform consistently on offense without Jackson. I also hesitate to put too much confidence in a team with a rookie tailback (Ryan Mathews), Nanee and Floyd as their starting wideouts (although Floyd could be VERY good), and a defense that can be anywhere from great to serviceable. This Chargers team has had the tendency to play to its competition at times, and often fails to cover spreads that shouldn't be a problem for a team with so much talent. They'll probably win their division, but I don't expect it to be a cakewalk.

The Chiefs are still going to be the last place team in their division, but will surprise a few teams. Cassel is a capable QB, and with Charlie Weis calling plays, the offense will have a few big games. Bowe and Chambers are good wideouts, Jones and Charles are solid tailbacks, and they ought to have a pretty good O-line. But can last year's 30th ranked defense improve enough for Kansas City to be a .500 team or better? I doubt it. Vrabel is a good leader, but is past his prime. Eric Berry has a ton of talent, but is unproven at the NFL level. He may make a few big plays, but I don't expect him to be a consistent game changing DB like Revis, Asomugha, or Reed.

I have no confidence in San Diego right now, and they tend to struggle ATS against Kansas City every now and then. I'm sure they'll prove me wrong at some point and go on a winning streak, but I think KC will be stronger out of the gate than San Diego will expect.

Trends: The Chargers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 AFC West games. Kansas City has played Over in 7 of their last 9 openers.

My Pick: Chiefs +5. San Diego still wins 27-25.

Super Bowl XLIV

2010-02-04T09:14:00.000-08:00

Sunday, February 7th, 6:25pm:

Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints
Line: Colts -4.5
O/U: 56.5
I'm actually quite surprised that the Colts are favored by so much with Dwight Freeney's status in question. He's a huge part of their defense, and how much he can play will directly impact how successful the Colts D is at stopping the high-powered Saints. The Saints are clearly capable of beating anybody when they are 100% on their game. The same, however, can be said for the Colts. I think Brees and company have more pure offensive talent, but Peyton has the ability to burn any defense. Neither defense is terrible, but neither is particularly wonderful. Both can bring good pressure and force turnovers, the Saints moreso than the Colts. Indy is more of a bend-but-don't-break style defense, and they execute very well. Still, I'd be surprised if this game ended with either team below 30 points. Will New Orleans win thank to their experience in shootouts, or will Indy get it done on the back of having been there before? I have to side with the experience factor. Plus Indy wouldn't have lost a game all year had they decided to try for the undefeated season. The Saints still would have. And did.
My Pick: Colts -4.5. Indy wins its second Lombardi Trophy with Manning at the helm 38-31.