Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (Sat. Jan 3rd, 4:30 pm)
Line: Falcons -2
O/U: 51
You know what? I'm going with the Cardinals. They've played great at home all year, and the franchise hasn't had a playoff win in a VERY long time. Arizona scored 14 points at home against Minnesota, but has 29+ in every other home game, including the one against the Giants...and if you haven't seen New York play, they're pretty darn good. So Atlanta will really need a solid defensive effort, and though I trust Matt Ryan and the offense, I'm just unsure of the D. If it's a shootout, I think Arizona can pull it off. Then again, Atlanta has been surprising me all season. If they do it again, no hard feelings...
Cards +2. Arizona can keep up with the NFC until they have to travel East. Which would be their next stop...Cards win a wild one, 37-34.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (Sat. Jan 3rd, 8pm)
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 51
Logic dictates that the Colts, who are on a big winning streak and have been playing quite well on both sides of the ball, will beat the Chargers, who snuck into the playoffs at .500 and were downright awful in a good number of their games this season. Of course, the NFL is never that simple, as the Chargers are playing pretty well right now, too. I think the playoff experience will show through for the Colts, even if the Chargers play with the "we deserve to be here" chip on their shoulders.
Colts -1. Indy wins another great game, 33-31.
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (Sun. Jan 4th, 1pm)
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 37.5
The Fins played great to get to the playoffs, but now they're in the deep end of the pool with the big kids, and the Ravens will be strong enough to hold them under until the bubbles stop. I'm high on the Ravens right now, but look at what they've done lately...they've really been beating teams badly!
Ravens -3. Baltimore drowns the fish 27-16.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (Sun. Jan 4th, 4:30pm)
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 42
Until I sat down to pick the games, I "knew" I was going with the Eagles. Now that I have actually put some thought into it, I'm not so sure. Against solid defensive teams, the Eagles have struggled. They lost twice to the Redskins. They won, but only managed 5 field goals against the Steelers. If Minnesota can get the offense going at all, they should be able to stay in the game, and maybe even win. But there are two reasons I am staying with my gut and taking the Eagles. 1. Minnesota tends to start slowly on defense, and allow teams to get out on them early. If the Eagles can put up some early points, the defense can hold the lead for them. 2. Philly has been in a lot of tough games lately, that were must-win games...and they prevailed. They're battle tested. And a second round Eagles-Giants game would be awfully fun to watch!
Eagles -3. Philly wins 20-14.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
RECAP - WEEK SEVENTEEN
This Week: 6-8-2 (122-123-10)
Linebusters: 2-3 (42-42-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 10-6 (156-96-1)
So after 17 weeks, I'm at exactly .500 on linebusters, and 1 game under for the rest...Wow. Consistent, yes. Good? Not really. I expected .600 or so. But I can't complain. I'm used to picking outcomes without the spread, and if you take a look at the straight picks, I was .617. Not bad. Of course, this was the weirdest season I've ever seen. And week 17 was no different...
Does a Playoff Spot Mean Anything Anymore?
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -13
O/U: 39
My Pick: Tampa -13. Gotta go with the desperate Bucs 30-10.
Result: Raiders 31-24
With a shot at the playoffs (they would have gotten in, too, with the Dallas loss...), the Bucs go out and get beat by Oakland? Huh? Oakland? Really? You deserve your early offseason, Tampa.
Perfectly Imperfect
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -10. 0-16 becomes a reality. Packers 27-13.
Result: Packers 31-21
So it has finally happened. Thought it would be the Fins last year, and look at them now. Can Detroit turn it around that quickly? Don't bet on it...
Land of Confusion
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -1.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cowboys +1.5. Dallas heads to the postseason with a win, 31-20.
Result: Eagles 44-6
Don't get me wrong...as a football fan, I'm thrilled that the 'Boys' are done. But where did this come from? Philly scored only 3 points in a loss to Washington, a team that is on the downturn and has been playing like crap, and then came out and wailed on everyone's preseason super bowl favorite in a game that both teams needed to win if they wished to continue their season? I guess Philly wanted it more...
Scott Norwood Revisited
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants +6.5. New York wins outright, 21-20.
Result: Vikings 20-19
I know, the game was unimportant, and the situation was totally different, but the Vikings won 20-19 (same score as super bowl XXV), and did so on a last second field goal. Obviously Norwood missed his shot nearly 18 years ago, giving the Giants the 20-19 win, but for Bills fans, every 20-19 game is a flashback, and when the Giants and a last second field goal are both involved, it is even worse!
Clean Out Your Lockers!
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bears +2.5. They've gotta win. 24-21.
Result: Texans 31-24
The Bears would have gotten the wild card, the way things worked out, but they couldn't beat Houston. Yet another team that fully deserves its fate. Houston should be congratulated, however, on an excellent season, finishing .500, well above what most people projected.
Holy Comeback!
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 52.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins 33-21.
Result: Panthers 33-31
This one was all wrapped up at 30-10, and I thought I was going to be just fine against the spread...but things went awry. If Carolina slacks off like that in the playoffs, even for a moment, they could have big issues. I'd be very hesitant to pick them as a super bowl team, simply because they do have a tendency to let up their guard.
Too Close...
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -14
O/U: 44
My Pick: Falcons -14. Atlanta has been a pleasant surprise all season, and wins again 27-10.
Result: Falcons 31-27
I was dumb to go with a spread that big, but Atlanta should not have allowed the Rams to put up 27 points on them. That is a bit disconcerting as they now head to Arizona...a place where big numbers regularly light up the scoreboard.
The Who Gives a Damn Bowl...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chiefs +3. KC wins it 24-13.
Result: Benglas 16-6
I guess I shouldn't have gone against the Bengals after all. Whatever...
Watch Out Now...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -12.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens -12.5. Baltimore rolls 27-10.
Result: Ravens 27-7
The Ravens aren't just winning games lately, they're blowing people out. The D is on fire, and the O is doing good enough to give the D the rest it needs. This could be a dangerous team, and certainly will not be an easy out for Miami. If Baltimore wins, don't forget that they barely lost to the Titans early in the season when Tennessee was on its winning streak, making for a very intriguing potential second-round matchup.
Streakin to the Playoffs
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38
My Pick: Colts +3. Indy doesn't want to back into the playoffs...21-17.
Result: Colts 23-0
This game meant very little. Both of these teams are very good. Nobody wants to play the Colts right now, and if Miami and Indy win, the next game the Titans play will be against the very team that just shut them out. Yet another interesting possible second-round matchup. I wouldn't expect that one to go quite the same way...
Stupid Win
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 32.5
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Steelers don't score much, but they score enough. 20-3.
Result: Steelers 31-0
Haha, Cleveland still can't score. What's not funny, however, is that Big Ben left this game on a stretcher. That is why teams rest star players in meaningless games, and after what we saw Sunday, I'll bet coaches over-react next year and refuse to play most of their big-name guys in week 17.
Still Swimming
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -2.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Jets -2.5. New York wins, but doesn't make the playoffs! 24-20.
Result: Dolphins 24-17
Unbelievable that Miami went from 1-15 to division champs...still, though, I said that the Jets wouldn't make the playoffs, and was right. They really were never that good. Their win over the Titans was big, but they played flawlessly, and the Titans had an off day. It happens. I think Miami will be one and done, but we'll see. They've been surprising people all year. Anybody else think it's fitting that the only win the Dolphins mustered last year was against the Ravens, and now they'll be meeting in the playoffs?
Blown Away
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Not Enough (Pats -6.5)
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -6.5. New England runs over the Bills 38-14.
Result: Pats 13-0
I had no idea it would be so windy, or I wouldn't have assumed so many points would be scored. Either way, New England did what it needed to do, and still managed to miss the playoffs. Ouch. I, like many, had them going 16-0 with Tom Brady...the schedule was easier this year than last...but it's football, and sometimes crazy things just happen!
Back in Form?
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -6
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Cards -6. Gotta go with that offense as it tunes up for the postseason. 27-19.
Result: Cards 34-21
Seeing their O put up 34 points on a defense that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 3 points last week may have Cards fans excited for the postseason. Atlanta is a good team, though. That will be a fun game to watch.
Disappointment
Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 20-16.
Result: 49ers 27-24
To be underdogs in San Fran was bad. To actually lose was worse. How far the mighty have fallen.
Revenge
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Broncos +8. San Diego still wins 34-31.
Result: Chargers 52-21
Yes, folks, that is what revenge looks like. I'm thrilled that Denver managed to screw up what was all-but a sure thing...but I'm not so happy that they finally messed up the Denver rule. My gut said this would be a blowout, and it was. So the Denver Rule finishes the season at 4-1. We'll break it out again next year, and see how it does.
Linebusters: 2-3 (42-42-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 10-6 (156-96-1)
So after 17 weeks, I'm at exactly .500 on linebusters, and 1 game under for the rest...Wow. Consistent, yes. Good? Not really. I expected .600 or so. But I can't complain. I'm used to picking outcomes without the spread, and if you take a look at the straight picks, I was .617. Not bad. Of course, this was the weirdest season I've ever seen. And week 17 was no different...
Does a Playoff Spot Mean Anything Anymore?
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -13
O/U: 39
My Pick: Tampa -13. Gotta go with the desperate Bucs 30-10.
Result: Raiders 31-24
With a shot at the playoffs (they would have gotten in, too, with the Dallas loss...), the Bucs go out and get beat by Oakland? Huh? Oakland? Really? You deserve your early offseason, Tampa.
Perfectly Imperfect
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -10. 0-16 becomes a reality. Packers 27-13.
Result: Packers 31-21
So it has finally happened. Thought it would be the Fins last year, and look at them now. Can Detroit turn it around that quickly? Don't bet on it...
Land of Confusion
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -1.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cowboys +1.5. Dallas heads to the postseason with a win, 31-20.
Result: Eagles 44-6
Don't get me wrong...as a football fan, I'm thrilled that the 'Boys' are done. But where did this come from? Philly scored only 3 points in a loss to Washington, a team that is on the downturn and has been playing like crap, and then came out and wailed on everyone's preseason super bowl favorite in a game that both teams needed to win if they wished to continue their season? I guess Philly wanted it more...
Scott Norwood Revisited
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants +6.5. New York wins outright, 21-20.
Result: Vikings 20-19
I know, the game was unimportant, and the situation was totally different, but the Vikings won 20-19 (same score as super bowl XXV), and did so on a last second field goal. Obviously Norwood missed his shot nearly 18 years ago, giving the Giants the 20-19 win, but for Bills fans, every 20-19 game is a flashback, and when the Giants and a last second field goal are both involved, it is even worse!
Clean Out Your Lockers!
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bears +2.5. They've gotta win. 24-21.
Result: Texans 31-24
The Bears would have gotten the wild card, the way things worked out, but they couldn't beat Houston. Yet another team that fully deserves its fate. Houston should be congratulated, however, on an excellent season, finishing .500, well above what most people projected.
Holy Comeback!
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 52.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins 33-21.
Result: Panthers 33-31
This one was all wrapped up at 30-10, and I thought I was going to be just fine against the spread...but things went awry. If Carolina slacks off like that in the playoffs, even for a moment, they could have big issues. I'd be very hesitant to pick them as a super bowl team, simply because they do have a tendency to let up their guard.
Too Close...
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -14
O/U: 44
My Pick: Falcons -14. Atlanta has been a pleasant surprise all season, and wins again 27-10.
Result: Falcons 31-27
I was dumb to go with a spread that big, but Atlanta should not have allowed the Rams to put up 27 points on them. That is a bit disconcerting as they now head to Arizona...a place where big numbers regularly light up the scoreboard.
The Who Gives a Damn Bowl...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chiefs +3. KC wins it 24-13.
Result: Benglas 16-6
I guess I shouldn't have gone against the Bengals after all. Whatever...
Watch Out Now...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -12.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens -12.5. Baltimore rolls 27-10.
Result: Ravens 27-7
The Ravens aren't just winning games lately, they're blowing people out. The D is on fire, and the O is doing good enough to give the D the rest it needs. This could be a dangerous team, and certainly will not be an easy out for Miami. If Baltimore wins, don't forget that they barely lost to the Titans early in the season when Tennessee was on its winning streak, making for a very intriguing potential second-round matchup.
Streakin to the Playoffs
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38
My Pick: Colts +3. Indy doesn't want to back into the playoffs...21-17.
Result: Colts 23-0
This game meant very little. Both of these teams are very good. Nobody wants to play the Colts right now, and if Miami and Indy win, the next game the Titans play will be against the very team that just shut them out. Yet another interesting possible second-round matchup. I wouldn't expect that one to go quite the same way...
Stupid Win
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 32.5
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Steelers don't score much, but they score enough. 20-3.
Result: Steelers 31-0
Haha, Cleveland still can't score. What's not funny, however, is that Big Ben left this game on a stretcher. That is why teams rest star players in meaningless games, and after what we saw Sunday, I'll bet coaches over-react next year and refuse to play most of their big-name guys in week 17.
Still Swimming
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -2.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Jets -2.5. New York wins, but doesn't make the playoffs! 24-20.
Result: Dolphins 24-17
Unbelievable that Miami went from 1-15 to division champs...still, though, I said that the Jets wouldn't make the playoffs, and was right. They really were never that good. Their win over the Titans was big, but they played flawlessly, and the Titans had an off day. It happens. I think Miami will be one and done, but we'll see. They've been surprising people all year. Anybody else think it's fitting that the only win the Dolphins mustered last year was against the Ravens, and now they'll be meeting in the playoffs?
Blown Away
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Not Enough (Pats -6.5)
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -6.5. New England runs over the Bills 38-14.
Result: Pats 13-0
I had no idea it would be so windy, or I wouldn't have assumed so many points would be scored. Either way, New England did what it needed to do, and still managed to miss the playoffs. Ouch. I, like many, had them going 16-0 with Tom Brady...the schedule was easier this year than last...but it's football, and sometimes crazy things just happen!
Back in Form?
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -6
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Cards -6. Gotta go with that offense as it tunes up for the postseason. 27-19.
Result: Cards 34-21
Seeing their O put up 34 points on a defense that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 3 points last week may have Cards fans excited for the postseason. Atlanta is a good team, though. That will be a fun game to watch.
Disappointment
Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 20-16.
Result: 49ers 27-24
To be underdogs in San Fran was bad. To actually lose was worse. How far the mighty have fallen.
Revenge
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Broncos +8. San Diego still wins 34-31.
Result: Chargers 52-21
Yes, folks, that is what revenge looks like. I'm thrilled that Denver managed to screw up what was all-but a sure thing...but I'm not so happy that they finally messed up the Denver rule. My gut said this would be a blowout, and it was. So the Denver Rule finishes the season at 4-1. We'll break it out again next year, and see how it does.
Friday, December 26, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK SEVENTEEN
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -13
O/U: 39
Tampa will win this game, but by 13 points? Oakland only plays decent every other week, and they won in week 16, so...you know...it could be a blowout. Plus, the Bucs MUST WIN. Betting on desperation is great, but this spread is awfully big.
Tampa -13. Gotta go with the desperate Bucs 30-10.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 43
The Packers have nothing to play for. The Lions do. But can Detroit put up a fight at Lambeau?
Packers -10. 0-16 becomes a reality. Packers 27-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -1.5
O/U: 42.5
Unlike many other teams in the league, the Eagles don't show up one week and disappear the next. They go on 2- or 3-game streaks of playing like crap. Not to mention the Cowboys have been given new life far too many times this season, and are bound to take advantage...especially coming in as underdogs.
Cowboys +1.5. Dallas heads to the postseason with a win, 31-20.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Oh, hell no. I was curious to see if the Vikes would be favored, but that is an insane line. Even if the Giants don't care about the game, I doubt Tarvaris Jackson can put up enough points to blow them out. New York lost 2 in a row, then won last week. They don't want to stumble into the postseason having lost 3 of their last 4, so I don't think they'll phone this one in. Not to mention, even if they rest Brandon Jacobs, his backup is Derrick Ward, and he can gash the Vikings like crazy without big Pat Williams in there stopping the run.
Giants +6.5. New York wins outright, 21-20.
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
The Bears have something to play for, and it is desperation time. If they can summon desperation to block a field goal against Green Bay that they absolutely had to block, I can't go against them when a win could mean a playoff spot.
Bears +2.5. They've gotta win. 24-21.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 52.5
Linebuster!
No Reggie, a new offensive coordinator, and the false confidence a 42-7 win over the Lions can provide will make this game a blowout in the wrong direction for Saints fans. Carolina is still playing for the division and a first round bye. Of course, if they don't get it, they'd be the #5 seed, and would travel to Arizona, which is a very winnable game. But why bother playing next week?
Panthers -3. Carolina wins 33-21.
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -14
O/U: 44
The Rams put up a good fight against San Fran last week, but are pretty much ready for their season to be over. Atlanta needs a win, and is on a huge high right now as they go into the playoffs. A win guarantees them, at worst, the #5 seed and a probable trip to Arizona. If Carolina loses, a win would give them the division and a first round bye! Yes, I'm said Atlanta Falcons and first round bye in the same sentence, and I wasn't kidding.
Falcons -14. Atlanta has been a pleasant surprise all season, and wins again 27-10.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
Cincy is by no means a good football team, and KC has been playing tough for a while. Their offense is young, but meshes together well, and should be enough to outgun the 13 obligatory points the Bungles will score.
Chiefs +3. KC wins it 24-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -12.5
O/U: 36
It's a big spread, and the Jags have been playing much better lately...but I just can't go against it. The Ravens have been beating teams by wide margins, and they'll be extra amped up for this one. They control their own destiny...
Ravens -12.5. Baltimore rolls 27-10.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38
Both teams are locked into their playoff spots, so this a tough game to figure out. On one hand, the Titans played poorly in Houston when the game didn't mean a whole lot (although in retrospect it could have been a killer, had Pittsburgh won last week). On the other hand, the Titans have much more depth. Then again, it is tough to sweep a season series, and the Colts would love to roll into the playoff with their current win streak in tact...
Colts +3. Indy doesn't want to back into the playoffs...21-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 32.5
The last game between these two was insanely low scoring. I don't expect Cleveland to score much (if any...), but Pittsburgh may not see the endzone much either.
Steelers -10.5. Steelers don't score much, but they score enough. 20-3.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -2.5
O/U: 42
I want the Jets to win and the Pats and Ravens to get in because, frankly, it would be hilarious. The problem for the Dolphins in this game is that they have the pressure of the whole country on them, to a degree, as they have become a worst-to-first story. How good are they, really? We will find out in week 17. Favre loves to dispell injury and retirement rumors by going out and playing like he is 24 again. Not to mention, he has had a few bad weeks in a row, so this should be a very good one.
Jets -2.5. New York wins, but doesn't make the playoffs! 24-20.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Not Enough (Pats -6.5)
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
The Patriots always crush the Bills. If you add in playoff implications, this one will be over after one quarter.
Pats -6.5. New England runs over the Bills 38-14.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -6
O/U: 45.5
Arizona is likely the 4-seed no matter what, so they don't have a lot to play for. Their problem is that if they lose, they'll be 8-8...and nobody wants to be that .500 team that snuck into the playoffs. Seattle did well last week, but can they keep it up?
Cards -6. Gotta go with that offense as it tunes up for the postseason. 27-19.
Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 37.5
Nobody has anything to play for in this one. Frankly, I don't care too much what happens. Very few teams have been able to travel cross-country this year and win, so we'll go with that...
49ers -3. San Fran wins 20-16.
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 50.5
I have known for a while what I would need to do with this game...San Diego got screwed in week 2 against the Broncs, they've clawed all the way back after being 4-8, and Denver has been playing like crap. Denver is also dealing with issues in the locker room. So everything points toward San Diego big. Which is why the "Denver Rule" states that I must go against common sense.
Broncos +8. San Diego still wins 34-31.
PLAYOFF PICTURE (based on predicted results)
AFC:
1. Tennessee
2. Pittsburgh
3. New England
4. San Diego
5. Indianapolis
6. Baltimore
NFC:
1. New York Giants
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. Arizona
5. Atlanta
6. Dallas
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
RECAP - WEEK SIXTEEN
This Week: 10-6 (116-115-8)
Linebusters: 4-1 (40-39-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 9-7 (146-90-1)
Now that I've got everything back above .500 with one week to go, I'm feeling pretty confident. The Jets are a disgrace, and since Fins and Jets fans both HATE the Patriots, I think it's only fitting that the Jets beat Miami, allowing the Pats to win the AFC east and get in the playoffs while the Jets and Fins both sit at home!
MVP Talk May Be A Little Much...
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Result: Colts 31-24
Yeah, the Colts won their 8th in a row, but they didn't look very impressive. It took some late heroics. I'm not so sure that Peyton is the league's MVP right now, either. After a 3-4 start and no snaps in the preseason, Peyton has them rolling...but no team in the NFL has overperformed more than the Atlanta Falcons, and rookie QB Matt Ryan. It should be a tight race between the two, and I wouldn't be disappointed either way, but Ryan's success, as a rookie, taking into account the state of the franchise when he arrived, ought to give him the edge.
Way to Mess up my playoff scenarios, Baltimore...
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Result: Ravens 33-24
That was a disgraceful end to Texas stadium. The Cowboys do not deserve to be in the playoffs, but every time they screw up, the fates conspire to bail them out. Now they'll need a win over the Eagles to get into the postseason. The Eagles looked AWFUL against the skins, and may have fallen back into their losing ways, so Dallas is likely bound for the playoffs...but again, they don't deserve it...
True #1
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Result: Titans 31-14
Tennessee earned the #1 seed, plain and simple. No discussion needed. Pittsburgh is a good 2-seed, and unless Indy and/or New England make some noise, the Titans/Steelers rematch for the AFC championship would be a game no true football fan could miss.
Ho-Hum
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
My Pick: Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Result: Dolphins 38-31
It's Miami, so of course they had to play less-than-great, allow KC to stay in the game the whole way, and barely win it late. That's just how Miami plays against lesser opponents. Next week, they'll step it up for the Jets, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. Miami wins, and they're in. They lose, and the Pats, who should beat the Bills (they've had their number for how long now?) would get the division title. It doesn't seem right that the Fins can win, take the division, and potentially keep an 11-5 team, let alone last year's super bowl runners-up, out of the postseason.
Still can't win in the East, can they...
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
My Pick: Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Result: Pats 47-7
My favorite line uttered by a TV commentator this week has to be when the FOX guys were headed to break late in the Pats game and said, with a great deal of disdain and apathy, "We'll be right back...Pats lead by 40!" Yikes! Arizona is in, but it will be interesting to see if they can get a postseason win, even as well as they've played at home. The Pats, unfortunately for them, need a win at Buffalo and a Jets or Ravens loss to get into the postseason. If all 3 win, the Pats are the odd man out.
No...One...Cares
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
My Pick: Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Result: Bengals 14-0
Haha, Cleveland couldn't even score once. Disgusting.
Skip Bayless, you just made my list of things to do today...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
Result: Skins 10-3
Granted, I would have picked the Eagles anyway, but Skip Bayless rambling on and on all week on ESPN about how the Eagles were the BEST team in the NFL (I know, I know....he really said it though!) had skewed my view of them a bit. I'm surprised, in retrospect, that I didn't call that game a Linebuster. I was starting to believe the hype. I know Skip Bayless isn't the world's foremost authority on, well, anything...but Philly is obviously nothing special. They need to win and get a LOT of help, as the Vikings would have to lose to the Giants (possible, but New York isn't playing for anything...) AND the Bucs would have to lose at home to the Raiders (umm...not likely).
Knew it would be close, but I feel bad for the Rams
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Result: 49ers 17-16
The reason I feel bad for the Rams is due to the way this game folded out. They had it won, but just couldn't hold the 49ers. It'll be interesting to see if Haslett gets the full time gig next year.
They surprise me every time...
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
My Pick: Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
Result: Falcons 24-17
Matt Ryan has that team playing so well...I saw their upcoming schedule a few weeks ago, and though they would never make it to the playoffs, having to go through Tampa and Minnesota...but they won both games, and are now guaranteed of a playoff berth. Kudos, Atlanta. You've earned it. They can still win the division, by the way, if they beat the Rams (likely) and the Panthers lose at New Orleans (possible...). Minnesota could still miss the playoffs. They've got to beat the Giants, which is no small task, or they have to hope that the Bears lose at Houston. Considering what could be on the line, I doubt the Bears will lose.
0-16, here we come!
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
Result: Saints 42-7
First of all, I knew better. I was just being hopeful. That was Detroit's shot, and now the Lions are destined to go down in history as the only team to go winless for a 16-game NFL season. Ouch.
You Morons
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Result: Seahawks 13-3
The Seahawks are relevant again! For one week, anyway. The Jets are an absolute disgrace, going out to lowly Seattle and scoring only 3 points. Seriously, what is it with that team and long plane trips? Jets lose, and they're obviously done. They win, and they may be done, too. Either Baltimore or New England would have to lose, and given the importance of those two teams' games, and the weakness of their opposition, it looks like the Jets' "magical" season will end in week 17! Stupid Jets.
See? Every other week...
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Result: Raiders 27-16
They stink one week, and are competitive the next. Must be Tom Cable's coaching style. Speaking of people who we will never hear from again...
Haha, Go Bills?
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
Result: Bills 30-23
This is the first game I can remember that I was happy about a Buffalo win for reasons other than liking the Bills. I can't wait to see that Broncos/Chargers game for all the marbles next week, especially after Ed Hochuli cost the Chargers round one with his blown call. Or his proper call, and stupid early whistle, depending on how you look at it. Broncos/Chargers, Sunday Night, AFC West on the line. May as well be a playoff game. Awesome.
Of course, two things had to happen to set up the AFC West showdown...
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Result: Chargers 41-24
It is hilarious that the Chargers were as bad as they were early in the season, had a very outside chance to make the playoffs a 4-8, and have had everything line up for them to control their own fate. Denver has lost two weeks in a row, San Diego has won 2 in a row. Go Chargers! I like the Bucs, and would still LOVE to see 3 NFC South teams rewarded with playoff spots after how great the conference was all year long. Tampa must win. Dallas must lose. It's that simple.
#1 in the NFC. Was there ever a question?
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Result: Giants 30-24 (ot)
They may be back to the Giants of mid-season. Someone is always there to step up and make the plays neccessary to win games. This week, it was Derrick Ward. Amazing. Both teams are in the playoffs, but Carolina could fall to the wild card if they lose to the Saints and the Falcons beat the Rams. The Giants have their much-deserved home field advantage. We'll see if it helps them...New York postseason pressure might be a lot to handle.
Keeping the Dream Alive
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Result: Bears 20-17 (ot)
The Bears should have lost that game. I was sure that the moronic horse collar on the kick return late in the game would allow the Packers to hit the field goal and win it, but the Bears, always winning it with defense and special teams, came up with a block. Now they're in a decent spot to make the playoffs, as they play Houston, and Minnesota plays the best team in the NFC, the New York Giants. A win and a Minny loss would give them the division.
Linebusters: 4-1 (40-39-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 9-7 (146-90-1)
Now that I've got everything back above .500 with one week to go, I'm feeling pretty confident. The Jets are a disgrace, and since Fins and Jets fans both HATE the Patriots, I think it's only fitting that the Jets beat Miami, allowing the Pats to win the AFC east and get in the playoffs while the Jets and Fins both sit at home!
MVP Talk May Be A Little Much...
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Result: Colts 31-24
Yeah, the Colts won their 8th in a row, but they didn't look very impressive. It took some late heroics. I'm not so sure that Peyton is the league's MVP right now, either. After a 3-4 start and no snaps in the preseason, Peyton has them rolling...but no team in the NFL has overperformed more than the Atlanta Falcons, and rookie QB Matt Ryan. It should be a tight race between the two, and I wouldn't be disappointed either way, but Ryan's success, as a rookie, taking into account the state of the franchise when he arrived, ought to give him the edge.
Way to Mess up my playoff scenarios, Baltimore...
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Result: Ravens 33-24
That was a disgraceful end to Texas stadium. The Cowboys do not deserve to be in the playoffs, but every time they screw up, the fates conspire to bail them out. Now they'll need a win over the Eagles to get into the postseason. The Eagles looked AWFUL against the skins, and may have fallen back into their losing ways, so Dallas is likely bound for the playoffs...but again, they don't deserve it...
True #1
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Result: Titans 31-14
Tennessee earned the #1 seed, plain and simple. No discussion needed. Pittsburgh is a good 2-seed, and unless Indy and/or New England make some noise, the Titans/Steelers rematch for the AFC championship would be a game no true football fan could miss.
Ho-Hum
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
My Pick: Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Result: Dolphins 38-31
It's Miami, so of course they had to play less-than-great, allow KC to stay in the game the whole way, and barely win it late. That's just how Miami plays against lesser opponents. Next week, they'll step it up for the Jets, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. Miami wins, and they're in. They lose, and the Pats, who should beat the Bills (they've had their number for how long now?) would get the division title. It doesn't seem right that the Fins can win, take the division, and potentially keep an 11-5 team, let alone last year's super bowl runners-up, out of the postseason.
Still can't win in the East, can they...
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
My Pick: Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Result: Pats 47-7
My favorite line uttered by a TV commentator this week has to be when the FOX guys were headed to break late in the Pats game and said, with a great deal of disdain and apathy, "We'll be right back...Pats lead by 40!" Yikes! Arizona is in, but it will be interesting to see if they can get a postseason win, even as well as they've played at home. The Pats, unfortunately for them, need a win at Buffalo and a Jets or Ravens loss to get into the postseason. If all 3 win, the Pats are the odd man out.
No...One...Cares
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
My Pick: Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Result: Bengals 14-0
Haha, Cleveland couldn't even score once. Disgusting.
Skip Bayless, you just made my list of things to do today...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
Result: Skins 10-3
Granted, I would have picked the Eagles anyway, but Skip Bayless rambling on and on all week on ESPN about how the Eagles were the BEST team in the NFL (I know, I know....he really said it though!) had skewed my view of them a bit. I'm surprised, in retrospect, that I didn't call that game a Linebuster. I was starting to believe the hype. I know Skip Bayless isn't the world's foremost authority on, well, anything...but Philly is obviously nothing special. They need to win and get a LOT of help, as the Vikings would have to lose to the Giants (possible, but New York isn't playing for anything...) AND the Bucs would have to lose at home to the Raiders (umm...not likely).
Knew it would be close, but I feel bad for the Rams
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Result: 49ers 17-16
The reason I feel bad for the Rams is due to the way this game folded out. They had it won, but just couldn't hold the 49ers. It'll be interesting to see if Haslett gets the full time gig next year.
They surprise me every time...
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
My Pick: Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
Result: Falcons 24-17
Matt Ryan has that team playing so well...I saw their upcoming schedule a few weeks ago, and though they would never make it to the playoffs, having to go through Tampa and Minnesota...but they won both games, and are now guaranteed of a playoff berth. Kudos, Atlanta. You've earned it. They can still win the division, by the way, if they beat the Rams (likely) and the Panthers lose at New Orleans (possible...). Minnesota could still miss the playoffs. They've got to beat the Giants, which is no small task, or they have to hope that the Bears lose at Houston. Considering what could be on the line, I doubt the Bears will lose.
0-16, here we come!
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
Result: Saints 42-7
First of all, I knew better. I was just being hopeful. That was Detroit's shot, and now the Lions are destined to go down in history as the only team to go winless for a 16-game NFL season. Ouch.
You Morons
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Result: Seahawks 13-3
The Seahawks are relevant again! For one week, anyway. The Jets are an absolute disgrace, going out to lowly Seattle and scoring only 3 points. Seriously, what is it with that team and long plane trips? Jets lose, and they're obviously done. They win, and they may be done, too. Either Baltimore or New England would have to lose, and given the importance of those two teams' games, and the weakness of their opposition, it looks like the Jets' "magical" season will end in week 17! Stupid Jets.
See? Every other week...
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Result: Raiders 27-16
They stink one week, and are competitive the next. Must be Tom Cable's coaching style. Speaking of people who we will never hear from again...
Haha, Go Bills?
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
Result: Bills 30-23
This is the first game I can remember that I was happy about a Buffalo win for reasons other than liking the Bills. I can't wait to see that Broncos/Chargers game for all the marbles next week, especially after Ed Hochuli cost the Chargers round one with his blown call. Or his proper call, and stupid early whistle, depending on how you look at it. Broncos/Chargers, Sunday Night, AFC West on the line. May as well be a playoff game. Awesome.
Of course, two things had to happen to set up the AFC West showdown...
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Result: Chargers 41-24
It is hilarious that the Chargers were as bad as they were early in the season, had a very outside chance to make the playoffs a 4-8, and have had everything line up for them to control their own fate. Denver has lost two weeks in a row, San Diego has won 2 in a row. Go Chargers! I like the Bucs, and would still LOVE to see 3 NFC South teams rewarded with playoff spots after how great the conference was all year long. Tampa must win. Dallas must lose. It's that simple.
#1 in the NFC. Was there ever a question?
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Result: Giants 30-24 (ot)
They may be back to the Giants of mid-season. Someone is always there to step up and make the plays neccessary to win games. This week, it was Derrick Ward. Amazing. Both teams are in the playoffs, but Carolina could fall to the wild card if they lose to the Saints and the Falcons beat the Rams. The Giants have their much-deserved home field advantage. We'll see if it helps them...New York postseason pressure might be a lot to handle.
Keeping the Dream Alive
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Result: Bears 20-17 (ot)
The Bears should have lost that game. I was sure that the moronic horse collar on the kick return late in the game would allow the Packers to hit the field goal and win it, but the Bears, always winning it with defense and special teams, came up with a block. Now they're in a decent spot to make the playoffs, as they play Houston, and Minnesota plays the best team in the NFC, the New York Giants. A win and a Minny loss would give them the division.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK SIXTEEN
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Jags are down, the Colts are up. A win by Indy would ensure them of a playoff spot, even with Tennessee coming up to finish off the season. Trust me, the Colts do NOT want the Titans game to be a must-win. They'll be playing hard.
Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
Call it wishful thinking, but I'm still not convinced the Cowboys are "back". Before the season, they were expected to easily roll into the playoffs, yet we're in week 16, and they could still miss the postseason entirely. Much like the Colts, the Cowboys don't want their fate to come down to week 17, especially when their matchup with the Eagles could be a playoff game for Philly, too. One more loss could mean no playoffs for the Ravens, too. But I think Dallas has more talent.
Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
The Steelers are favored AT Tennessee? Yikes. I was ready to pick Pittsburgh because I'm just not sure the Titans can run the ball that well against the Steelers, and I can't guarantee that Tennessee's pass rush will be very good without Haynesworth...but after such a good start, the Titans are desperate to show that it wasn't a fluke. I'm sure they're also not happy to be underdogs at home in a game that will determine the #1 seed in the AFC. Plus the Steelers are too relaxed, having already shored up a first-round bye. They're not as desperate. I like the Steelers, but I'm not sure they're a 1-seed.
Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
Miami knows that if they win, they could be playing the Jets next week for a spot in the playoffs. Though they generally play down to the competition, there is no way that the importance of this game is lost on them.
Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
Well, I see Vegas has caught on to the Cards' troubles in the East. This is an awfully big spread. Of course, the Pats have a ton of experience, and really want to make the playoffs, so they're playing somewhat desperate, knowing that the Jets hold the tiebreaker over them. I'll take the desperate Pats against the Easternly-hapless Cards.
Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
Does anyone care about these teams anymore? There are so many great, important games this week that the Browns/Bengals game will get lost in the shuffle. Ken Dorsey gives the Bengals a shot at a win, and maybe a little more respect.
Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
Some people are saying that the Eagles are playing the best football in the whole NFL right now! They'll need to win out to have a shot at the postseason, and this is the easier of the two games. Washington is on the down-swing, and Philly should handle them.
Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
Yet another meaningless game. Haslett is trying to impress the Rams so that they'll give him the full time job next year, and I'd expect him to have his players ready to go. I'm not saying they'll win, but they should keep it close.
Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
After the way Tarvaris Jackson played last week in Arizona, how can I go against him at home? Both teams are playing for playoff spots, and a Minnesota win would lock them in as NFC North Champs. Atlanta probably needs to win out to make the postseason, so they have to be playing desperate. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota's Run D will make things tough for Michael Turner, and put a ton of pressure on Matt Ryan to perform. He's a great young QB, but this is a tough situation for him. I hope he succeeds, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
With only 2 games separating the Lions from 0-16, they're playing desperate. New Orleans has nothing left to play for, is without Reggie Bush, and just lost its offensive coordinator, who took the head coaching job at Syracuse. Detroit has to know this is their shot.
Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
It would be very fitting for the Jets to blow their shot at the playoffs by losing in Seattle. They lost in San Diego, Oakland, and San Fran. All bad teams, but all long road trips. The difference with this game? There is A LOT on the line for New York, and they are well aware that they've been playing like crap out west. They'll change their routine a bit, prepare hard, and be ready for an underperforming Seahawks team.
Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
The Texans have been playing well, and deserves to have at least a .500 record at season's end. The Raiders have been very inconsistent...always bad, but inconsistently bad...you don't know if they'll lose by 4 or 40! Last week they lost by a ton. This week, at home, I don't think they'll lose by as much.
Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Bills D should be able to control Denver at least a little bit, and if the Bills can score on any defense in the league, it's Denver's. I'd love to see the Bills win to set up a one-game playoff scenario for the AFC West title between Denver and San Diego next week. I don't think they will, but I also doubt they'll get blown out.
Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
Again, I want to see that Denver-San Diego game mean something next week. Garcia is questionable for Tampa, and though the Bucs need 2 wins to all-but guarantee a playoff spot, one win would be enough if the Falcons lose to Vikings and the Eagles lose to the Cowboys. So there is some desperation, but a loss wouldn't eliminate them. I'm not sure San Diego will win, but Tampa rarely wins by more than a field goal, so I feel very safe going against the spread.
Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
The Giants have lost two in a row, and I just can't picture them losing three. Carolina's run game will have a hard time with the Giants' D, and Eli Manning will step up and have a huge game. Plus the Giants absolutely deserve home-field after the way they've played this season in defense of their title.
Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
The Packers have nothing to play for, although these NFC North rivalries generally bring out the best in everyone. The Bears, however, must win or they are done. If the Vikings win on Sunday, though, the Bears are done anyway. So as of right now, there is no way to guarantee that Chicago will be playing with desperation. Here's hoping...
Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Jags are down, the Colts are up. A win by Indy would ensure them of a playoff spot, even with Tennessee coming up to finish off the season. Trust me, the Colts do NOT want the Titans game to be a must-win. They'll be playing hard.
Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
Call it wishful thinking, but I'm still not convinced the Cowboys are "back". Before the season, they were expected to easily roll into the playoffs, yet we're in week 16, and they could still miss the postseason entirely. Much like the Colts, the Cowboys don't want their fate to come down to week 17, especially when their matchup with the Eagles could be a playoff game for Philly, too. One more loss could mean no playoffs for the Ravens, too. But I think Dallas has more talent.
Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
The Steelers are favored AT Tennessee? Yikes. I was ready to pick Pittsburgh because I'm just not sure the Titans can run the ball that well against the Steelers, and I can't guarantee that Tennessee's pass rush will be very good without Haynesworth...but after such a good start, the Titans are desperate to show that it wasn't a fluke. I'm sure they're also not happy to be underdogs at home in a game that will determine the #1 seed in the AFC. Plus the Steelers are too relaxed, having already shored up a first-round bye. They're not as desperate. I like the Steelers, but I'm not sure they're a 1-seed.
Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
Miami knows that if they win, they could be playing the Jets next week for a spot in the playoffs. Though they generally play down to the competition, there is no way that the importance of this game is lost on them.
Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
Well, I see Vegas has caught on to the Cards' troubles in the East. This is an awfully big spread. Of course, the Pats have a ton of experience, and really want to make the playoffs, so they're playing somewhat desperate, knowing that the Jets hold the tiebreaker over them. I'll take the desperate Pats against the Easternly-hapless Cards.
Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
Does anyone care about these teams anymore? There are so many great, important games this week that the Browns/Bengals game will get lost in the shuffle. Ken Dorsey gives the Bengals a shot at a win, and maybe a little more respect.
Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
Some people are saying that the Eagles are playing the best football in the whole NFL right now! They'll need to win out to have a shot at the postseason, and this is the easier of the two games. Washington is on the down-swing, and Philly should handle them.
Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
Yet another meaningless game. Haslett is trying to impress the Rams so that they'll give him the full time job next year, and I'd expect him to have his players ready to go. I'm not saying they'll win, but they should keep it close.
Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
After the way Tarvaris Jackson played last week in Arizona, how can I go against him at home? Both teams are playing for playoff spots, and a Minnesota win would lock them in as NFC North Champs. Atlanta probably needs to win out to make the postseason, so they have to be playing desperate. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota's Run D will make things tough for Michael Turner, and put a ton of pressure on Matt Ryan to perform. He's a great young QB, but this is a tough situation for him. I hope he succeeds, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
With only 2 games separating the Lions from 0-16, they're playing desperate. New Orleans has nothing left to play for, is without Reggie Bush, and just lost its offensive coordinator, who took the head coaching job at Syracuse. Detroit has to know this is their shot.
Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
It would be very fitting for the Jets to blow their shot at the playoffs by losing in Seattle. They lost in San Diego, Oakland, and San Fran. All bad teams, but all long road trips. The difference with this game? There is A LOT on the line for New York, and they are well aware that they've been playing like crap out west. They'll change their routine a bit, prepare hard, and be ready for an underperforming Seahawks team.
Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
The Texans have been playing well, and deserves to have at least a .500 record at season's end. The Raiders have been very inconsistent...always bad, but inconsistently bad...you don't know if they'll lose by 4 or 40! Last week they lost by a ton. This week, at home, I don't think they'll lose by as much.
Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Bills D should be able to control Denver at least a little bit, and if the Bills can score on any defense in the league, it's Denver's. I'd love to see the Bills win to set up a one-game playoff scenario for the AFC West title between Denver and San Diego next week. I don't think they will, but I also doubt they'll get blown out.
Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
Again, I want to see that Denver-San Diego game mean something next week. Garcia is questionable for Tampa, and though the Bucs need 2 wins to all-but guarantee a playoff spot, one win would be enough if the Falcons lose to Vikings and the Eagles lose to the Cowboys. So there is some desperation, but a loss wouldn't eliminate them. I'm not sure San Diego will win, but Tampa rarely wins by more than a field goal, so I feel very safe going against the spread.
Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
The Giants have lost two in a row, and I just can't picture them losing three. Carolina's run game will have a hard time with the Giants' D, and Eli Manning will step up and have a huge game. Plus the Giants absolutely deserve home-field after the way they've played this season in defense of their title.
Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
The Packers have nothing to play for, although these NFC North rivalries generally bring out the best in everyone. The Bears, however, must win or they are done. If the Vikings win on Sunday, though, the Bears are done anyway. So as of right now, there is no way to guarantee that Chicago will be playing with desperation. Here's hoping...
Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)