Championship Weekend Recap

Championship Weekend Picks: 2-0
Championship Weekend ATS: 0-2
Overall Picks: 170-96
Overall ATS: 142-119-5

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Packers win 23-21.
Result: Packers 21-14
This one wasn't as entertaining as I thought it would be. As a result, it was a wider margin of victory than I expected. And yes, I think Cutler is a wuss.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Jets +3.5. Steelers win 27-24.
Result: Steelers 24-19
The Steelers' defensive TD late in the first half really doomed the Jets, but I think it was their early lack of committment to the run game that ultimately caused their season to end. They're a run-first, defensive team with a second-year quarterback...there is no reason for them to throw the ball so much. Once they get behind, I understand that the game plan changes. But when they were still in the game, I'm not sure why they didn't try to run more.

Championship Weekend Preview

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 43.5
This'll be an outstanding game. The Packers have been playing very well, but the Bears always seem to know how to shut down Green Bay's offense. The two games they've played against one another so far this year have been intense and very close. I don't think I'd give either team 3 1/2 points!
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Packers win 23-21.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3.5
O/U: 38.5
This game amounts to the same situation as the NFC Championship game...I'm not sure I can pick either team to win by 3 1/2! I want to pick the Jets for three reasons: because they are playing fantastic defense, they want to win for their coach (who has lost in a league title game 2 straight years), and they're a great road team. Instead, however, I have to take the Steelers - The Jets seemed a little too excited about last week's win, and we often see teams put forth less-than-stellar efforts after a big, emotional win. In a sense, the Jets already had their Super Bowl...
My Pick: Jets +3.5. Steelers win 27-24.

Divisional Weekend Recap

Divisional Picks: 2-2

Divisional ATS: 2-2

Overall Picks: 168-96

Overall ATS: 142-117-5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-13.
Result: Steelers 31-24
My gut said to take the Steelers, but I like the Ravens...Oh well. I thought Ray Lewis would be more of a factor, but he was nearly invisible.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 20-17 (again).

Result: Packers 48-21

Again, my gut said to take the Packers...why don't I listen to my gut when it comes to Saturday games? Quite the disappointment for Atlanta, but Green Bay is playing awfully well right now...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -10

O/U: 41

My Pick: Bears -10. Chicago wins 17-3.

Result: Bears 35-24

I'm surprised the Bears' D weakened late and allowed the Seahawks to score 24 points. Thankfully they still fell short of the spread, finished 2 games under .500, and lost 10 games by no less than 11 points. Why am I thankful for this? Because even after they knocked out the defending champs (who REFUSED to play defense in that game...), I still don't think they deserved a playoff berth. The aforementioned stats prove my point.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -8.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Jets +8.5. New York wins outright 20-19.

Result: Jets 28-21

I wasn't all that sure about this pick, but for some reason I like the "fight" the Jets have in them. I'm not thrilled about their desire to "rub it in" after they won, but I do understand their pregame frustration and the fact that they thought Brady rubbed it in after the Pats dismantled them in early December. Brady wasn't running around the field with his arms stretched out like a 5-year-old playing "airplane", however. Real mature, Jets. Real mature. Not sure why I would have expected anything different...

Divisional Weekend Preview

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -3

O/U: 37

Before the season began, Baltimore was many analysts' pick to win the AFC. Pittsburgh wasn't necessarily a pick to win it all, but many experts suggested that they had the talent and experience to potentially get there. Advantage, Ravens. I'm a little worried that the extra week of rest will help the Steelers immensely given the physical nature that this game will almost certainly take on. Advantage, Steelers. I also realize that the Steelers tend to beat the Ravens when Big Ben plays, and they tend to lose when he doesn't. Again, advantage, Steelers. I'm also aware that each team won on the other's field this season. Advantage, Ravens. The only prediction I can make with any certainty is that this game will go down to the wire and be one of the best, most hard-fought games you'll have seen all year. Since my "advantages" ended up 2-2, I have to try to throw one out. Preseason picks can't be touched; they mean very little, but I can't find any reason to discount them. Rest will have an effect, and there is no way I could think otherwise. Baltimore is the road team, and that can't magically change. That leaves Big Ben's impact. I predict Big Ben will get injured, and the Steelers will fall. It's the only way I can break the tie!

My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-13.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 43.5

The Falcons already won this matchup once this season, but I think Green Bay is better now than they were at that time. That said, I imagine Michael Turner will be able to run against Green Bay and open up a few throwing lanes for Ryan, but I'm not sure how much of a rushing effort the Packers will be able to sustain. James Starks had a big game last week, but he's young and I just can't bring myself to trust a rookie RB out of UB (Buffalo) to be a major difference maker in the NFL playoffs after having been nonexistent in the regular season. I expect a defensive battle, and the Packers certainly could come out on top. But the Falcons are very strong at home...

My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 20-17 (again).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -10

O/U: 41

Seattle has earned my respect - but they still haven't lost a game by fewer than 11 points this season. So again, if I think they'll lose, I have to pick them to lose against the spread. The Bears have been solid, and I expect their defense to "show up", unlike that of the Saints. I'm not sure what Jay Cutler will have to offer in the postseason, especially after a two week hiatus, but I'm not sure it matters as long as that Chicago defense plays to its potential.

My Pick: Bears -10. Chicago wins 17-3.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -8.5

O/U: 44.5

Oh me of little faith...how dare I pick against the Jets in the wildcard round? It was all about Rex Ryan's history against Manning. Now that he's proven the trend wrong, it's time for him to live up to another trend...Belichick has only lost to two teams all year - Rex Ryan and the Jets and Rob Ryan and the Browns. The Browns game proves that the Pats are capable of falling flat on their faces, but I don't think that'll happen at home in the postseason. There is NO WAY this will be a 42-point debacle again. The Jets will almost certainly keep it close. The Pats haven't lost to the same team twice in one season since 2000 (pre-Brady) - and it was the Jets who beat them twice. It's been a good decade, but Karma says it's time for the streak to end!

My Pick: Jets +8.5. New York wins outright 20-19.

Wildcard Weekend Recap

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 31-10.
Result: Seahawks 41-36
No one would have expected the Saints' defense to allow the lowly Seahawks to score more than 30 points...let alone 41! Anybody who picked the Seahawks to win outright is either a masochist or a Seahawks fan; though those two distinctions may be one and the same. I was honestly going to pick the Seahawks to beat the spread until I realized that they hadn't lost a game by less than 11 all season long. Since I never considered them to win (not a masochist...), that left me with only one choice. I'm not that upset about this pick...I don't see how I could have picked Seattle to pull off one of the biggest upsets in playoff history.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 24-21.

Result: Jets 17-16

Oh ye of little faith...I wish I had the gumption to pick the Jets in the face of all the stats that suggested Rex Ryan would again be unable to stop Peyton Manning. The Jets defense played very well and Sanchez did just enough, getting the team into field goal position late so that Folk could hit the game winner. My lack of faith will likely continue in the divisional round; I see no way that the Jets can oust the Patriots.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 20-10.

Result: Ravens 30-7

This was a good game until halftime, but the adjustments Harbaugh made at the break propelled the Ravens to a big second half and a lopsided victory. The Ravens are very, very good on the road in the playoffs. The Steelers are very, very good period. This is going to be a fun week...

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -2.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Packers +2.5. Green Bay wins 34-31.

Result: Packers 21-16

The Eagles just couldn't muster enough offense against a very fast, strong Packers' defense. Green Bay is a team NO ONE wants to play right now; they're really clicking in all facets of the game. We won't get a chance to see Vick return to Atlanta in an NFC Championship game, but we could see Packers @ Bears in the NFC Championship. Between the rivalry implications and the fact that the Packers made the playoffs on the back of a win over Chicago in week 17, that would end up being yet another great game. This year's playoff matchups have been outstanding!