NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview

BAL @ PIT

PIT -3

46.5

Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by 20 in Baltimore in September. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore by 20 in Pittsburgh in November. Does that technically mean these teams are tied for the season? Since Baltimore and Pittsburgh historically play close, 3-point games, I expect a return to normalcy. If Pittsburgh wins by 3 it’ll be a push, so I might as well take the Ravens.   

Pick: BAL +3. Ravens win 23-20 (Under)

ARI @ CAR

CAR -6

38

Arizona has been excellent most of the season despite significant injury issues at quarterback, and I believe their defense and supporting cast can will them to a win. They’ve played too well to bow out in the wildcard round of the playoffs. I don’t expect the Cards to win a shootout with Logan Thomas playing QB, but Carolina has played 5 straight home Unders. So as long as the game is low-scoring, Arizona has a shot.

Pick: ARI +6. Cardinals win 17-13 (Under)

DET @ DAL

DAL -7

48

Detroit has the best run defense in the NFL, which doesn’t bode well for the NFL’s 2^nd best rushing attack. Also, regardless of how good Dallas has been, Romo is an unproven commodity in the playoffs.

Pick: DET +7. Lions win 21-17 (Under)

CIN @ IND

IND -3

49

Indy is excellent at home, but don’t count out the Bengals. They may have lost by 27 in Indy a few months ago, but they’ve been playing much better football late in the season. The Over is likely, but another Colts blowout certainly isn’t.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-34 (Over)

NFL Week Seventeen Recap

Week Seventeen

ATS: 9-7

Straight Up: 10-6

Over/Under: 9-7

Overall

ATS: 137-114-5
Straight Up: 155-100-1
Over/Under: 134-120-2

CLE @ BAL

BAL -9

41.5

Pick: BAL -9. Ravens win 31-13 (Over)

Result: BAL 20-10 (Under)

DAL @ WAS

DAL -6

49

Pick: WAS +6. Cowboys win 20-17 (Under)

Result: DAL 44-17 (Over)

IND @ TEN

IND -7

46

Pick: IND -7. Colts win 24-14 (Under)

Result: IND 27-10 (Under)

JAX @ HOU

HOU -10.5

40.5

Pick: HOU -10.5. Texans win 31-10 (Over)

Result: HOU 23-17 (Under)

SD @ KC

KC -3

42

Pick: SD +3. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

Result: KC 19-7 (Under)

NYJ @ MIA

MIA -6

42

Pick: NYJ +6. Jets win 22-17 (Under)

Result: NYJ 37-24 (Over)

CHI @ MIN

MIN -6.5

43.5

Pick: CHI +6.5. Vikings win 27-23 (Over)

Result: MIN 13-9 (Under)

BUF @ NE

NE -5

44

Pick: NE -5. Pats win 27-14 (Under)

Result: BUF 17-9 (Under)

PHI @ NYG

NYG -3

52

Pick: NYG -3. Giants win 33-27 (Over)

Result: PHI 34-26 (Over)

NO @ TB

NO -4

46.5

Pick: TB +4. Saints win 23-20 (Under)

Result: NO 23-20 (Under)

CAR @ ATL

ATL -4

47.5

Pick: ATL -4. Falcons win 34-20 (Over)

Result: CAR 34-3 (Under)

DET @ GB

GB -7.5

48

Pick: GB -7.5. Packers win 24-13 (Under)

Result: GB 30-20 (Over)

OAK @ DEN

DEN -14

47.5

Pick: DEN -14. Broncos roll 45-14 (Over)

Result: DEN 47-14 (Over)

ARI @ SF

SF -6

36.5

Pick: ARI +6. Cardinals win 20-17 (Over)

Result: SF 20-17 (Over)

STL @ SEA

SEA -12.5

41

Pick: SEA -12.5. Seahawks win 31-9 (Under)

Result: SEA 20-6 (Under)

CIN @ PIT

PIT -3.5

47.5

Pick: CIN +3.5. Bengals win 19-17 (Under)

Result: PIT 27-17 (Under)

NFL Week Seventeen Preview

CLE @ BAL

BAL -9

41.5

Cleveland has been spiraling downward, losing 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Though Baltimore hasn’t been playing well either, there is more at stake for the Ravens, who can still sneak into the playoffs with a win and some help.

Pick: BAL -9. Ravens win 31-13 (Over)

DAL @ WAS

DAL -6

49

This is a meaningless game for Dallas, so picking them to cover 6 points on the road is a bit of a stretch. Murray has been banged up, so I’d expect the Cowboys to rely on him a little less. When they get away from the run, the Cowboys usually have issues.

Pick: WAS +6. Cowboys win 20-17 (Under)

IND @ TEN

IND -7

46

Indy is locked into the #4 seed in the AFC and may choose to rest some people. That said, Tennessee is pretty bad.

Pick: IND -7. Colts win 24-14 (Under)

JAX @ HOU

HOU -10.5

40.5

The Jaguars have only been a viable threat at home this season, and Houston is still technically alive in the playoff hunt.

Pick: HOU -10.5. Texans win 31-10 (Over)

SD @ KC

KC -3

42

I was leaning toward KC until I remembered that the Chiefs beat the Chargers by a field goal in October. A Chiefs sweep of the Chargers is unlikely.

Pick: SD +3. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

NYJ @ MIA

MIA -6

42

This game is for pride, and the Jets have been playing for pride most of the season. Plus these teams usually play close games against one another.

Pick: NYJ +6. Jets win 22-17 (Under)

CHI @ MIN

MIN -6.5

43.5

Clausen played well last week and the Bears don’t seem to have given up as I had previously anticipated. That said, the Bears won the first matchup against the Vikings and are unlikely to sweep.

Pick: CHI +6.5. Vikings win 27-23 (Over)

BUF @ NE

NE -5

44

The Pats have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but given their recent history against the Bills they’ll probably still win handily.

Pick: NE -5. Pats win 27-14 (Under)

PHI @ NYG

NYG -3

52

The Eagles were a playoff frontrunner all season, but now that they’ve been eliminated I doubt they’ll have much fire in their belly to play the Giants.

Pick: NYG -3. Giants win 33-27 (Over)

NO @ TB

NO -4

46.5

New Orleans has drastically disappointed me all season long. So screw ‘em. This is a spite pick. I had the Saints in the Super Bowl and they didn’t even make the playoffs. And, frankly, I still don’t know how they were so bad!

Pick: TB +4. Saints win 23-20 (Under)

CAR @ ATL

ATL -4

47.5

In a playoff-style win-or-go-home game I trust Matt Ryan over Cam Newton, especially at home. It’s that simple.

Pick: ATL -4. Falcons win 34-20 (Over)

DET @ GB

GB -7.5

48

When a division title is on the line at Lambeau, you’d be crazy to pick against the Packers. 

Pick: GB -7.5. Packers win 24-13 (Under)

OAK @ DEN

DEN -14

47.5

Denver needs to win to secure a bye…at home…against the Raiders? Yeah…I think I’ll take the Broncos.

Pick: DEN -14. Broncos roll 45-14 (Over)

ARI @ SF

SF -6

36.5

Arizona is the better team and San Francisco isn’t very good at home.

Pick: ARI +6. Cardinals win 20-17 (Over)

STL @ SEA

SEA -12.5

41

Seattle is amazing at home, is playing its best football, and lost to the Rams earlier this season.

Pick: SEA -12.5. Seahawks win 31-9 (Under)

CIN @ PIT

PIT -3.5

47.5

Pittsburgh beat the Bengals a few weeks ago, and Cincy is too good to be swept by anyone.

Pick: CIN +3.5. Bengals win 19-17 (Under)

NFL Week Sixteen Recap

Week Sixteen

ATS: 7-9

Straight Up: 9-7

Over/Under: 10-6

Overall

ATS: 128-107-5
Straight Up: 145-94-1
Over/Under: 125-113-2

TEN @ JAX

JAX -4.5

39

Pick: TEN +4.5. Jaguars win 20-17 (Under)

Result: JAX 21-13 (Under)

SD @ SF

SF -1

41

Pick: SD +1. Chargers win 23-20 (Over)

Result: SD 38-35 OT (Over)

PHI @ WAS

PHI -7.5

50

Pick: PHI -7.5. Eagles win 27-10 (Under)

Result: WAS 27-24 (Over)

CLE @ CAR

CAR -3

40.5

Pick: CAR -3. Panthers win 21-13 (Under)

Result: CAR 17-13 (Under)

MIN @ MIA

MIA -7

42

Pick: MIN +7. Miami wins 21-17 (Under)

Result: MIA 37-35 (Over)

GB @ TB

GB -11.5

49

Pick: TB +11.5. Packers win 27-17 (Under)

Result: GB 20-3 (Under)

DET @ CHI

DET -8.5

44

Pick: DET -8.5. Lions win 38-3 (Under)

Result: DET 20-14 (Under)

ATL @ NO

NO -6

56

Pick: ATL +6. Saints win 24-21 (Under)

Result: ATL 30-14 (Under)

NE @ NYJ

NE -10

47

Pick: NE -10. Pats win 34-10 (Under)

Result: NE 17-16 (Under)

KC @ PIT

PIT -3

46.5

Pick: PIT -3. Steelers win 21-17 (Under)

Result: PIT 20-12 (Under)

BAL @ HOU

BAL -5

41.5

Pick: BAL -5. Ravens win 30-13 (Over)

Result: HOU 25-13 (Under)

NYG @ STL

STL -6.5

43.5

Pick: NYG +6.5. Rams win 17-13 (Under)

Result: NYG 37-27 (Over)

BUF @ OAK

BUF -6.5

39

Pick: OAK +6.5. Bills win 23-20 (Over)

Result: OAK 26-24 (Over)

IND @ DAL

DAL -3

55

Pick: IND +3. Colts win 33-27 (Over)

Result: DAL 42-7 (Under)

SEA @ ARI

SEA -7.5

36.5

Pick: ARI +7.5. Seahawks win 10-6 (Under)

Result: SEA 35-6 (Over)

DEN @ CIN

DEN -3

47.5

Pick: DEN -3. Broncos win 35-17 (Over)

Result: CIN 37-28 (Over)

NFL Week Sixteen Preview

TEN @ JAX

JAX -4.5

39

I’m not sure how to pick the Jags when they’re favored. I assume it’ll be a close game, though, so Jacksonville covering 4.5 isn’t particularly likely.

Pick: TEN +4.5. Jaguars win 20-17 (Under)

SD @ SF

SF -1

41

San Francisco has been terrible at home and has spent the entire week responding to rumors about Harbaugh’s future.

Pick: SD +1. Chargers win 23-20 (Over)

PHI @ WAS

PHI -7.5

50

Philly only beat the Skins by a field goal early in the season, but the Washington offense shouldn’t have nearly as much success this time around. Plus the Eagles are in desperate need of a win after losing to the Cowboys on Monday Night.

Pick: PHI -7.5. Eagles win 27-10 (Under)

CLE @ CAR

CAR -3

40.5

Is it possible for both teams to lose? Can I pick a tie? Actually, Carolina is playing for the top spot in the worst division in the history of the NFL, so they may still have some fight left in them. Manziel is quickly proving why he was a first-round pick with sixth-round talent, and I doubt the Browns will do much. They have the ability to run away with this game, but I’d bet most of the locker room gave up when Manziel was named the starter.

Pick: CAR -3. Panthers win 21-13 (Under)

MIN @ MIA

MIA -7

42

Minnesota has been “in’ most of their games this season, and they seem to play with a lot of heart. I doubt the Fins will blow them out.

Pick: MIN +7. Miami wins 21-17 (Under)

GB @ TB

GB -11.5

49

Being an 11 1/2 point underdog at home is embarrassing; I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs came out and played very well. They’ve historically done well against the Packers (4-1 ATS last 5 at home v. GB), and although Green Bay needs a win, the game may stay closer than two touchdowns.

Pick: TB +11.5. Packers win 27-17 (Under)

DET @ CHI

DET -8.5

44

Benching Jay Cutler is tantamount to waving a white flag. I’d spot Detroit 20 points if I had to.

Pick: DET -8.5. Lions win 38-3 (Under)

ATL @ NO

NO -6

56

The Falcons have the confidence of having already beaten the Saints and the added bonus of – somehow – still being in the NFC South race. It’s tough to sweep an opponent in the NFL, but I don’t trust the Saints to blow Atlanta out of the building.

Pick: ATL +6. Saints win 24-21 (Under)

NE @ NYJ

NE -10

47

New England barely beat the Jets earlier this season. For most teams, that would be cause for concern. For the Pats, however, it probably means a blowout win.

Pick: NE -10. Pats win 34-10 (Under)

KC @ PIT

PIT -3

46.5

I still don’t fully trust Pittsburgh, but Mike Tomlin is a solid coach and Ben Roethlisberger is a solid QB. And the NFL is a coach/QB league. Somehow I think they’ll gut their way into a playoff berth, which will require a win against KC.

Pick: PIT -3. Steelers win 21-17 (Under)

BAL @ HOU

BAL -5

41.5

I’m tempted to pick the Texans, but they’re fresh out of quarterbacks. It’s tough to score points when you don’t have anyone to throw the ball.

Pick: BAL -5. Ravens win 30-13 (Over)

NYG @ STL

STL -6.5

43.5

There is no reasoning behind this pick. I’m just going with my gut.

Pick: NYG +6.5. Rams win 17-13 (Under)

BUF @ OAK

BUF -6.5

39

The Bills are overinflated because of last week’s win over Green Bay. They’re not good enough for me to give them a touchdown on the road.

Pick: OAK +6.5. Bills win 23-20 (Over)

IND @ DAL

DAL -3

55

Now that the pressure is on, Dallas may turn back into the Cowboys of old.

Pick: IND +3. Colts win 33-27 (Over)

SEA @ ARI

SEA -7.5

36.5

Like the Texans, the Cardinals are out of quarterbacks. That said, their defense is still strong.

Pick: ARI +7.5. Seahawks win 10-6 (Under)

DEN @ CIN

DEN -3

47.5

Peyton performs well when the pressure is on. The Broncos still have a shot at the all-important #1 seed in the AFC (although tenuous), so they should be prepared to roll the Bengals.

Pick: DEN -3. Broncos win 35-17 (Over)

NFL Week Fifteen Recap

Week Fifteen

ATS: 11-4-1

Straight Up: 12-4

Over/Under: 10-6

Overall

ATS: 121-98-5
Straight Up: 136-87-1
Over/Under: 115-107-2

ARI @ STL

STL -4.5

40.5

Pick: ARI +4.5. Cardinals win 20-17 (Under)

Result: ARI 12-6 (Under)

OAK @ KC

KC -10

41.5

Pick: KC -10. Chiefs win 34-10 (Over)

Result: KC 31-13 (Over)

JAX @ BAL

BAL -14

45.5

Pick: JAX +14. Ravens win 24-14 (Under)

Result: BAL 20-12 (Under)

PIT @ ATL

PIT -2

54.5

Pick: ATL +2. Falcons win 31-27 (Over)

Result: PIT 27-20 (Under)

HOU @ IND

IND -6.5

49

Pick: IND -6.5. Colts win 27-19 (Under)

Result: IND 17-10 (Under)

CIN @ CLE

CLE -1.5

44

Pick: CIN +1.5. Bengals win 24-13 (Under)

Result: CIN 30-0 (Under)

MIA @ NE

NE -7.5

48.5

Pick: NE -7.5. Patriots win 31-13 (Under)

Result: NE 41-13 (Over)

TB @ CAR

CAR -3

41.5

Pick: TB +3. Bucs win 21-13 (Under)

Result: CAR 19-17 (Under)

WAS @ NYG

NYG -6.5

47

Pick: WAS +6.5. Giants win 30-24 (Over)

Result: NYG 24-13 (Under)

GB @ BUF

GB -5

50.5

Pick: BUF +5. Packers win 21-17 (Under)

Result: BUF 21-13 (Under)

MIN @ DET

DET -8

43

Pick: DET -8. Lions win 27-17 (Over)

Result: DET 16-14 (Under)

NYJ @ TEN

NYJ -2

42

Pick: TEN +2. Titans win 17-13 (Under)

Result: NYJ 16-11 (Under)

DEN @ SD

DEN -4

51

Pick: DEN -4. Broncos win 34-24 (Over)

Result: DEN 22-10 (Under)

SF @ SEA

SEA -10

48

Pick: SEA -10. Seahawks win 31-0 (Under)

Result: SEA 17-7 (Under)

DAL @ PHI

PHI -3

55

Pick: DAL +3. Cowboys win 35-31 (Over)

Result: DAL 38-27 (Over)

NO @ CHI

NO -3

54

Pick: NO -3. Saints win 33-27 (Over)

Result: NO 31-15 (Under)

NFL Week Fifteen Preview

ARI @ STL

STL -4.5

40.5

Arizona is clearly the better team, and St. Louis is due for a letdown after pitching consecutive shutouts.

Pick: ARI +4.5. Cardinals win 20-17 (Under)

OAK @ KC

KC -10

41.5

Kansas City has to end its 3 game losing streak and should do so relatively easy against the Raiders, at whom I presume they are still pissed off.

Pick: KC -10. Chiefs win 34-10 (Over)

JAX @ BAL

BAL -14

45.5

This is an awful lot of points to give Baltimore against a team with a relatively solid defense. I’ll take the points.

Pick: JAX +14. Ravens win 24-14 (Under)

PIT @ ATL

PIT -2

54.5

I still don’t trust Pittsburgh, and somebody has to win the NFC South. The Falcons should be playing hard, especially as a home dog.

Pick: ATL +2. Falcons win 31-27 (Over)

HOU @ IND

IND -6.5

49

Indy didn’t play particularly well last week, and Houston has the talent along its defensive line to keep Andrew Luck off balance. That said, if Andre Johnson can’t play the Texans won’t be able to move the ball very well.

Pick: IND -6.5. Colts win 27-19 (Under)

CIN @ CLE

CLE -1.5

44

There’s no way Cleveland will sweep Cincy.

Pick: CIN +1.5. Bengals win 24-13 (Under)

MIA @ NE

NE -7.5

48.5

The Patriots are a different – and much more dangerous – team with LeGarrett Blount in the backfield. Plus they rarely lose late in the season. And are still upset that the Fins took them down in week one.

Pick: NE -7.5. Patriots win 31-13 (Under)

TB @ CAR

CAR -3

41.5

Whether Newton plays or not, Carolina hasn’t been a very good team this season. Tampa has played some pretty solid games, and I expect them to earn a series split.

Pick: TB +3. Bucs win 21-13 (Under)

WAS @ NYG

NYG -6.5

47

I’d like to think the Redskins have enough pride to avoid being blown out by the Giants twice in one season.

Pick: WAS +6.5. Giants win 30-24 (Over)

GB @ BUF

GB -5

50.5

My gut says the Bills have the defensive line to put pressure on Aaron Rodgers and slow down Green Bay’s offense. Plus it’s really cold and snowy in Buffalo…not unlike Green Bay…so this game might stay lower-scoring allowing the Bills to have a shot.

Pick: BUF +5. Packers win 21-17 (Under)

MIN @ DET

DET -8

43

Minnesota has been playing pretty well and Detroit hasn’t been involved in many blowouts. But I have no idea how Minnesota will cover Calvin Johnson.

Pick: DET -8. Lions win 27-17 (Over)

NYJ @ TEN

NYJ -2

42

The Jets aren’t good enough to be favored on the road.

Pick: TEN +2. Titans win 17-13 (Under)

DEN @ SD

DEN -4

51

The Broncos haven’t been stellar lately and San Diego may be due for a statement win. Unfortunately they don’t have the defense to stop Peyton.

Pick: DEN -4. Broncos win 34-24 (Over)

SF @ SEA

SEA -10

48

You’d think the 49ers would get up for this game, but history suggests that the Seahawks will win in blow out fashion.

Pick: SEA -10. Seahawks win 31-0 (Under)

DAL @ PHI

PHI -3

55

Philly smoked the Cowboys on Thanksgiving; I imagine Dallas has made some adjustments. These teams usually split anyway.

Pick: DAL +3. Cowboys win 35-31 (Over)

NO @ CHI

NO -3

54

The Saints were embarrassed last week, the Bears have pretty much given up, and Chicago plays poorly at home. All of that points to New Orleans staying in the disturbingly poor NFC South race.

Pick: NO -3. Saints win 33-27 (Over)

NFL Week Fourteen Recap

Week Fourteen

ATS: 10-5-1

Straight Up: 12-4

Over/Under: 13-3

Overall

ATS: 110-94-4
Straight Up: 124-83-1
Over/Under: 105-101-2

DAL @ CHI

DAL -3.5

51

Pick: CHI +3.5. Dallas wins 30-28 (Over)

Result: DAL 41-28 (Over)

BAL @ MIA

MIA -3

45

Pick: BAL +3. Ravens win 27-17 (Under)

Result: BAL 28-13 (Under)

PIT @ CIN

CIN -3

47

Pick: CIN -3. Bengals win 30-24 (Over)

Result: PIT 42-21 (Over)

IND @ CLE

IND -3.5

50

Pick: CLE +3.5. Indy wins 23-21 (Under)

Result: IND 25-24 (Under)

HOU @ JAX

HOU -5

42

Pick: JAX +5. Texans win 16-13 (Under)

Result: HOU 27-13 (Under)

NYG @ TEN

PK

46

Pick: NYG PK. Giants win 31-13 (Under)

Result: NYG 36-7 (Under)

CAR @ NO

NO -10

49.5

Pick: CAR +10. Saints win 28-23 (Over)

Result: CAR 41-10 (Over)

TB @ DET

DET -10

41.5

Pick: DET -10. Lions win 42-6 (Over)

Result: DET 34-17 (Over)

STL @ WAS

STL -3

45

Pick: WAS +3. Skins win 21-19 (Under)

Result: STL 24-0 (Under)

NYJ @ MIN

MIN -6

40

Pick: NYJ +6. Minnesota wins 24-20 (Over)

Result: MIN 30-24 (Over)

BUF @ DEN

DEN -10

47.5

Pick: DEN -10. Broncos win 38-17 (Over)

Result: DEN 24-17 (Under)

KC @ ARI

KC -1

40

Pick: ARI +1. Cards win 24-13 (Under)

Result: ARI 17-14 (Under)

SF @ OAK

SF -8

41

Pick: OAK +8. 49ers win 23-17 (Under)

Result: OAK 24-13 (Under)

SEA @ PHI

PHI -1

48

Pick: SEA +1. Seahawks win 22-17 (Under)

Result: SEA 24-14 (Under)

NE @ SD

NE -3.5

51

Pick: NE -3.5. Pats win 38-30 (Over)

Result: NE 23-14 (Under)

ATL @ GB

GB -12

55.5

Pick: ATL +12. Packers win 20-13 (Under)

Result: GB 43-37 (Over)