NFL Week Fourteen Preview

DAL @ CHI

DAL -3.5

51

It’s tough to cover more than a field goal on the road, especially when the opposing team has a strong aerial attack with multiple weapons and your pass defense is in the bottom third of the league. Plus Dallas is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and in their last 7 overall against the NFC North. Chicago has covered the last 3 against Dallas, though I’m a little concerned that Chicago will pack it in. As long as the Bears play hard, they should keep this game tight.

Pick: CHI +3.5. Dallas wins 30-28 (Over)

BAL @ MIA

MIA -3

45

Miami isn’t much better at home than they are on the road, so spreads are often a bit inflated in the Fish Bowl. If these teams played on a neutral field, I’ll bet the Ravens would be favored. The Ravens have won 5 of 6 against the Fins and have played 6 of 9 Under in Miami.

Pick: BAL +3. Ravens win 27-17 (Under)

PIT @ CIN

CIN -3

47

Cincinnati just won 3 consecutive road games and will be excited to play in front of the home fans against a division rival. I don’t think Pittsburgh is as good as their record indicates, but they’ve had a few great games this season. It’s impossible to know which Steelers team will show up! Cincy is only 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games against the Steelers, but both ATS triumphs were within the last 5 years.

Pick: CIN -3. Bengals win 30-24 (Over)

IND @ CLE

IND -3.5

50

This is a tough pick. Cleveland’s offense has been stagnating lately, and Indy is the last team you want to play when you’re not scoring many points. But the Browns have surprised a few teams this season and could put things together this week after a tough loss in Buffalo. Indy has won 6 of 7 against the Browns, but Cleveland has covered the spread in 3 of the last 4.

Pick: CLE +3.5. Indy wins 23-21 (Under)

HOU @ JAX

HOU -5

42

It’s tough to blow out two divisional opponents in consecutive weeks. Are the Texans really good enough to pull it off? Jacksonville may be riding high after last week’s win, but they’re still making plenty of mistakes. I doubt Bortles will be able to dig himself out from underneath JJ Watt to put many points on the board, but Fitzpatrick may have the same concerns going up against a strong Jaguars D line. Houston is 5-1 ATS as a favorite but the Jags have won 5 of 7 at home against the Texans.

Pick: JAX +5. Texans win 16-13 (Under)

NYG @ TEN

PK

46

The trends are terrible for both teams. The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and the Titans are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 at home. Tennessee has covered 5 straight against the Giants, but New York should – keyword, SHOULD – be playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing to the lowly Jaguars. So I’ll lean in their direction, if only for the moment.

Pick: NYG PK. Giants win 31-13 (Under)

CAR @ NO

NO -10

49.5

I am incredibly hesitant to give the Saints 10 points against anyone right now, but the Panthers have shown a propensity for getting blown out on the road. Four of their last five road games were decided by 18 points or more. New Orleans can score in bunches, so if the Panthers aren’t careful this one could get out of hand. Then again, I can’t trust either of these teams right now, so I’ll pick based on an unexpected trend: Carolina has covered 11 of 13 in New Orleans.

Pick: CAR +10. Saints win 28-23 (Over)

TB @ DET

DET -10

41.5

Detroit has been winning games with strong defense, which doesn’t bode well for a double-digit spread. That said, their league-best run defense will shut down much of what Tampa hopes to do offensively, causing the Bucs defense to be out on the field more than it would like to be. Meaning Calvin Johnson will be on the field for more plays. Meaning he’ll end up with a bagillion yards and 74 touchdowns. Or more likely 100+ yards and 2 touchdowns. Either way, enough to cover the spread. This pick is solely based on the notion that Tampa has no one who can effectively cover Megatron. If he gets hurt or doesn’t play well, Tampa could easily cover.

Pick: DET -10. Lions win 42-6 (Over)

STL @ WAS

STL -3

45

It’s often tough for NFL teams to follow up a blowout win, especially as a road favorite against a team with comparable talent. St. Louis has been playing well, but I don’t trust that they’ll keep it going. Cousins has done a decent job in RG3’s stead and I expect the Redskins to compete hard at home. The Skins are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Rams and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the NFC West.  

Pick: WAS +3. Skins win 21-19 (Under)

NYJ @ MIN

MIN -6

40

The Jets’ saving grace against Miami was their run game, and Minnesota’s run defense is even worse than Miami’s! The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Jets and I’m a little worried that they’ll have a slight downturn after a convincing win over Carolina, but to this point they’ve beaten all of the teams they “should have”. And they “should” beat the Jets.

Pick: NYJ +6. Minnesota wins 24-20 (Over)

BUF @ DEN

DEN -10

47.5

Buffalo has been good against Denver (5-1 ATS last 6), but they haven’t yet faced the Broncos during the Peyton Manning era. The Bills defensive line could cause Peyton problems, but they’d have to put together an almost perfect game plan to keep Denver under 30 points. And I don’t think Buffalo will be going quite that high offensively.

Pick: DEN -10. Broncos win 38-17 (Over)

KC @ ARI

KC -1

40

Seriously? A 9-3 team – two weeks ago the holder of the NFL’s best record – is now a home underdog to a team that lost to the Raiders a few weeks ago? Weird. Arizona should be motivated by this line. Yeah, the Chiefs have won 5 of 6 against the Cards. Yeah, Arizona has been winning a lot of games with smoke and mirrors and no real “stats” to back up their success. But they do have the league’s 6^th best run defense in yards per rush allowed, are facing a run-oriented attack, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Pick: ARI +1. Cards win 24-13 (Under)

SF @ OAK

SF -8

41

San Francisco is better on the road than at home, but the Raiders will be looking to erase last week’s blowout loss from their memories. They’ll also be playing exceptionally hard because of the cross-bay rivalry with San Fran. Eight is a lot of points to give any road favorite, especially one with as many concerns as the 49ers.

Pick: OAK +8. 49ers win 23-17 (Under)

SEA @ PHI

PHI -1

48

Seattle’s defense continues to get closer to Super Bowl-contending form. I expect them to have made some excellent adjustments to slow down Sanchez and the Philly offense. The Eagles are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 against Seattle and the Seahawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog.

Pick: SEA +1. Seahawks win 22-17 (Under)

NE @ SD

NE -3.5

51

I’d be hesitant to give most teams 3+ points in San Diego, but Brady and Belichick after a loss is a different story. Despite how good the Chargers have been at home (8-1 SU last 9), Brady and the Pats have beaten them in 5 of their last 6 meetings. The Pats are 30-something and 4 in the last 8 weeks of the season since 2011. The odds of two losses in a row seem exceedingly thin.

Pick: NE -3.5. Pats win 38-30 (Over)

ATL @ GB

GB -12

55.5

Atlanta has been getting better as the season has gone on, but the Packers are downright unstoppable at home right now. I’m basing this entire pick on the weather. I expect it to be freezing cold and likely snowing on a Monday Night at Lambeau in December, which means fewer points, lots of run plays, and a closer game. The Falcons also have the better run defense, which could make things interesting. Plus the Packers have failed to cover in 5 straight home games against the Falcons and in 2 straight Monday Nighters.

Pick: ATL +12. Packers win 20-13 (Under)