Wildcard Weekend Preview

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 44.5
The Seahawks are being completely written off despite enjoying one of the league's best home-field advantages. New Orleans recently lost Pierre Thomas for the rest of the year, but still has Reggie Bush and Julius Jones, which is a pretty solid duo. I was strongly considering picking Seattle to cover the spread (I would NEVER pick them to win...), but after looking at their full schedule, they've only played 3 "close" games (meaning within the 10 1/2 point spread of their game against NO), and all three of those games were wins. So if I expect them to lose, I ought to expect them to do so in blowout fashion.
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 31-10.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 44.5

Peyton is phenomenal in playoff games, but the Colts are "down" this year. Despite entering the playoffs on a hot streak, winning their last four, I'm still not sold. Those final four games were all close, and the Titans basically "let" them win. The Jets are hard-nosed and have a ton of confidence. That said, I can't pick against the Colts simply because Rex and Rob Ryan are awful against Peyton in games that matter, and because Peyton loves it when teams blitz him. The odds point toward the Colts ripping apart the Jets' pass D.

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 24-21.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40.5

I hate to pick all of the favorites, but it seems to be moving in that direction! Kansas City has solid playoff experience, but it's all in their COACHING ranks...the players who are actually on the field haven't had that experience. Baltimore is battle-tested and playoff-tested, and I don't see KC tearing their run defense apart. Consider also that the Chiefs' run D may only be #1 in the country because they've played 37% (6 of 16) of their games against the league's 4 WORST run defenses!

My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 20-10.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -2.5

O/U: 46

I'd rather not pick against Vick, mostly because I'm enjoying his play thus far, but Green Bay is hot right now, and their defense is fast enough to contain the speedy QB. Aaron Rodgers is very good, his receivers are some of the best in the league, and I'm not 100% sold on the Eagles' defense. In the end, I think it's the Packers who will move on. They didn't have a great regular season, but they were one of the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, so we certainly can't write them off. If I had to pick ONE game to watch this week, it'd be this one.

My Pick: Packers +2.5. Green Bay wins 34-31.