NFL Week Two Preview

PIT @ BAL

BAL -3

44.5

Pittsburgh didn’t look great in the second half against the Browns, but the Ray Rice situation has cast a dark cloud over Raven-land. I doubt they’ll be fully focused on Thursday night. Plus the Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against Pittsburgh and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Thursday night games.

Pick: PIT +3. Steelers win 23-20 (Under)

DET @ CAR

CAR -3

44

Detroit’s Calvin Johnson is a matchup nightmare for everyone he faces. Can Carolina’s Antoine Cason keep him under wraps? Probably not. Carolina looked ok against Tampa Bay, but the Lions looked very solid against the Giants. Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Carolina, but is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Carolina was stellar at home last season, going 6-1-1 ATS in their own building. Though the Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under, the Lions and Panthers have played 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matchups Over.

Pick: DET +3. Lions win 34-28 (Over)

MIA @ BUF

MIA -1

43

The Bills looked awfully good against the Bears. They have a ton of weapons, and Anthony Dixon was a great addition as a third-string running back behind Jackson and Spiller. The run defense still looks like a liability, though, so Knowshon Moreno may have a big day. Tannehill isn’t good under pressure, so if the Bills’ stellar defensive front can get some push against Miami’s revamped offensive line, it could be a long day for the fish. Miami doesn’t usually win in Buffalo, either. They’re just 3-7 ATS in their last ten trips to Western NY. Buffalo has played 4 of its last 6 home games against Miami Under and the Dolphins have played 9 of 11 Under against the AFC East and 16 of their last 24 Under on the road.

Pick: BUF +1. The Bills win 23-17 (Under)

JAX @ WAS

WAS -6

43

The Jaguars looked solid for one quarter against the Eagles, but quickly became fatigued. They may get tired out once again, as the Redskins should learn exactly the same thing from their game tape that I learned; when they run the ball, they have success. Of their 3 sustained drives against the Texans, 2 featured almost exclusively run plays. If the Redskins hammer the run game and tire out the Jaguars, they should be able to get the win. If not, this could be one of Jacksonville’s few “winnable” games this season. Washington’s defense was good when it got pressure, but lost receivers in coverage when the quarterback had time to allow the play to develop. If Jacksonville’s O-line can create space for Henne, the Jags are going to move the ball efficiently and could have a chance at the win. Gerhart’s ankle injury could hurt the Jags, but I expect him to be ready for Sunday’s game, regardless of how much practice he gets this week. Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 against the Skins and has played 8 of 9 Over against NFC opponents. The Redskins are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 against the AFC South and have played 6 of 9 Over against AFC opponents.   

Pick: WAS -6. Redskins win 33-19 (Over)

DAL @ TEN

TEN -3.5

49.5

Dallas is likely going to end up 8-8 again, which makes them easy to predict. When they play a good team – like San Fran – they’re going to lose. When they play a beatable team – Like Tennessee – they’re going to win. The Dallas defense is terrible, but Jake Locker is useless under pressure; so if the Cowboys can get a solid push from their line, they should be ok. Keep in mind that Locker has a strong, accurate arm when he gets the ball out fast; so Dallas will have to scheme up a way to avoid getting burned in the short passing game. The Cowboys will also have to respect Tennessee’s rushing attack, as Sankey and Washington are good change-ups for Shonn Greene. The Titans showed some nice defensive coverage schemes against the Chiefs and will have to come up with some more to confuse Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 against Tennessee, but is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog. The Titans have been good ATS against the NFC East (15-5 last 20), but they haven’t played well at home lately (0-5 ATS last 5). The trends strongly favor the Over for both teams.

Pick: DAL +3.5. Cowboys win 31-24 (Over)

ARI @ NYG

ARI -2.5

43

This game involves many conflicting trends. Arizona looked good in game #1, but they generally don’t do well when traveling to the east coast. Against the Giants on the east coast, however, they’re usually fine (4-1 ATS last 5). The Giants played terribly in Detroit and will be looking to rebound. They’re 2-0 ATS in their last two games after playing on Monday Night the week before. Arizona is 3-5 ATS in their last 8 after a Monday Nighter. The Giants are banged up and Eli seems to be making just as many mistakes as he did last year, so I have to go with the Cardinals.

Pick: ARI -2.5. Cardinals win 20-7 (Under)

NE @ MIN

NE -3

49

New England coming off a loss? Yeah, the Patriots are a virtual lock. But by how many? They’re only 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games, while Minnesota is an impressive 10-4 in its last 14 home contests. Though Minnesota has played 4 of 5 Under against New England, all of the other trends point to this game hitting the Over.

Pick: NE -3. Patriots roll 41-17 (Over)

NO @ CLE

NO -6.5

47.5

New Orleans lost to Atlanta, but the Falcons are going to be a very competitive team this season. The Saints are still really, really good. If this game were in the Superdome I’d pick them to win by 35 points. In Cleveland I’ll be a little more conservative, but not much. I don’t think the Saints defense will let Cleveland back into the game once it’s out of reach. The trends on this game don’t mean much, as they’re all conflicting. New Orleans has been bad on the road (2-7 ATS last 9), but Cleveland has been bad at home (2-4 last 6). New Orleans has been playing road Unders (6 of 7), but Cleveland has been playing home Overs (4 of 6).

Pick: NO -6.5. Saints roll 42-10 (Over)

ATL @ CIN

CIN -5

48.5

Atlanta got a big win against the Saints and proved – at least to me – that they’re going to be a force in the NFC South this season. I expected as much; Matt Ryan is a poised, capable quarterback and he’s surrounded by talented receivers and playmakers. They need to watch the penalties, but if the defense creates turnovers – like they did two seasons ago – the Falcons could be a playoff contender. Cincy is a definite playoff hopeful, but they’re much better on defense than they are on offense. If a talented team like Atlanta can get out in front early, will the Bengals be able to come back? Atlanta has beaten Cincy in 4 of 6 and the teams have hit the Over in 5 of those 6 games.  

Pick: ATL +5. Falcons win 28-23 (Over)

STL @ TB

TB -6

37

I don’t even want to pick this game. Tampa is ok, but they’re not good enough to expect them to blow anyone out. St. Louis is horrendous and is on their 13^th string quarterback, but you never know when they’ll pull a rabbit out of their hat and beat somebody. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, but Tampa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 against the Rams. St. Louis and Tampa have played 5 of their last 6 head-to-head contests Under in Tampa Bay, but the Bucs have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over.

Pick: STL +6. Tampa wins 14-9 (Under)

SEA @ SD

SEA -5.5

44

Normally Seattle is beatable on the road, but right now – fully healthy, fully confident – I think they’ll keep rolling. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to San Diego, and although the Chargers will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance in Arizona, Seattle isn’t a particularly good matchup for them. Nor anyone else, for that matter. Though the Chargers have played 12 of their last 19 post-Monday-Night affairs Over, Seattle has played 10 of 15 Under in San Diego. In case you’re curious how deep my absurd trend stats go, consider this: The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass fields. Boom. Mind Blown. You’re welcome.

Pick: SEA -5.5. Seahawks win 23-17 (Under)

HOU @ OAK

HOU -3

39.5

One thing that stood out to me about the Texans defense is how well they tackle. That, and safety DJ Swearinger. He was all over the field, repeatedly making perfect form tackles and disrupting plays. Clowney is important, but I don’t think they’ll have much of a drop off because of stellar coaching and attention to detail throughout the rest of the defense. The problem for Houston is that if the opponent gets pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, he becomes completely useless. Oakland has a solid defensive front, so it’s possible that they’ll wreak havoc on the Texans offense. The Raiders can certainly run the ball, too, with MJD and McFadden serving as one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. Thankfully the trends suggest picking the Under, because this game is going to involve a lot of run plays and punts.  

Pick: HOU -3. Texans win 13-6 (Under)

NYJ @ GB

GB -8

45.5

The Jets aren’t great, but picking them to lose by more than a touchdown is dangerous. Rex Ryan normally has his guys fired up to play, especially when they’ve been disrespected by Vegas. They’ve also had the Packers’ number lately, winning 7 of their last 9 against Green Bay. Despite being at home, the Packers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Packers also lack offensive weapons, so don’t expect them to be “amazing” just because Aaron Rodgers is at quarterback. He still needs somewhere to throw the ball, and I doubt Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are enough to carry the load.

Pick: NYJ +8. Packers win 21-17 (Under)

KC @ DEN

DEN -13

51

Kansas City didn’t play horribly against Tennessee; they just lacked attention to detail and made some careless mistakes. I’m concerned about their rookie kicker and kick returner, but otherwise they’re a solid squad. They’re not what they were last year – mostly because they lack a dynamic playmaker like McCluster – but Alex Smith is capable of keeping this team in contention. Denver is probably going to put up a ton of points, just like they did last year. They have some issues and injuries, but Manning has enough weapons to do some damage. Kansas City hung with Denver last season, likely because pride kicks in when everyone tells you the other team is going to score against you at will. The Chiefs aren’t quite as good – or quite as healthy – this season; can they still contain the Broncos

Pick: KC +13. Denver wins 34-24 (Over)

CHI @ SF

SF -7

48.5

The Bears are an awfully good team to be a 7-point underdog. San Francisco will be playing hard in an attempt to open its new stadium on a positive note, but the 49ers are still without a few key players on defense who they may miss against an explosive offense like Chicago’s. As long as the Bears can contain Frank Gore, they should be able to keep it close. Unfortunately for the Bears, the trends lean toward the 49ers; San Fran has won 8 of their last 12 SU and 11 of their last 14 ATS against the Bears.

Pick: CHI +7. The Bears win 33-30 (Over)

PHI @ IND

IND -3

53

Philadelphia’s fast-paced offense ultimately tired out Jacksonville and led to some late-game scoring drives; I’d expect it to do the same to Indy. But will Andrew Luck have the Colts so far ahead by then that it’ll be moot? The Indianapolis offense is really, really strong. If Trent Richardson gets back to form, they’re an incredibly dangerous team. I doubt they’ll start 0-2. Plus Indy has won its last 5 ATS against Philly and played all 5 Over.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-33 (Over)