NFL Week Nine Preview

NO @ CAR

NO -3

49

I’m still not sold on New Orleans, and Carolina could really use a win. Their defense played well against the Seahawks but didn’t get much help on the other side of the ball. This is a battle for first place (at .500…) in the NFC South, which is kind of sad. Carolina is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 division games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. New Orleans has failed to cover 10 straight on the road. Both teams trend toward the Over.  

Pick: CAR +3. Panthers win 27-17 (Under)

SD @ MIA

MIA -2.5

45

San Diego is coming off back-to-back losses, but they always seem to play poorly against Miami (2-6 ATS last 8). Both teams are without their starting running backs, but each has had experience filling that void, as Mathews and Moreno have been frequent guests on the injured list in 2014. All told, I expect San Diego to be hungrier after two tough division losses.   

Pick: SD +2.5. Chargers win 23-20 (Under)

ARI @ DAL

DAL -4

48

Dallas is coming off a loss and Arizona’s record is already inflated. I don’t respect the Cowboys as a legitimate contender, but I think they’ll get back to their run game and will beat the Cards at home.

Pick: DAL -4. Dallas wins 24-19 (Under)

JAX @ CIN

CIN -10.5

44

This spread seems a bit large, but the Bengals need wins and are solid at home and the Jaguars are terrible regardless of where they play. The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and have played 3 of 4 Under against the AFC North. Cincy is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games against Jacksonville and has played 4 of 5 Under against AFC South opponents.  

Pick: CIN -10.5. Bengals win 24-10 (Under)

TB @ CLE

CLE -6.5

43.5

Cleveland tends to play down to their opposition, which could be a problem against Tampa Bay. The Bucs have kept games close against some solid teams. If Tampa shows up, they might pull out a win. Regardless, I think they’ll keep it close. They’re 7-0 ATS in their last 7 November games and have played 4 of 5 road games Over. Cleveland is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games against losing teams and has played 10 of 13 Under against NFC South foes.

Pick: TB +6.5. Cleveland wins 28-24 (Over)

WAS @ MIN

Pk

43.5

Minnesota is terrible and RG3 is back. Nuff said. The Skins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and have played 5 of 7 Over in Minnesota. The Vikings have covered 4 of 6 against the Skins and have played 8 of 12 Over at home.

Pick: WAS pk. Redskins win 34-13 (Over)

PHI @ HOU

PHI -2

48.5

The Eagles are only 5-9 ATS in their last 13 games against AFC South teams, but after a tough loss in Arizona I think they’ll be ready for the Texans. Houston is only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and have played 4 of 6 Under at home.

Pick: PHI -2. Eagles win 34-20 (Over)

NYJ @ KC

KC -9.5

42

Michael Vick should take this spread as a personal challenge. I think he’ll remind KC of why he was once feared, and the Jets defense will cause problems for the Chiefs, who aren’t exactly a powerhouse. Plus Rex Ryan will have a great game plan lined up after being embarrassed at home by a conference opponent. The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against KC and have played 7 of 10 road games Over. Kansas City is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against AFC East teams and have played 17 of 25 Under at home.  

Pick: NYJ +9.5. Jets win 31-17 (Over)

STL @ SF

SF -10

43.5

This is an awfully large spread for two teams that frequently play close games against one another. That said, San Fran is coming off a bye, needs a win, and is playing at home. As long as Kaepernick puts up points, the Rams won’t be able to do much to get back in the game. St. Louis is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 trips to SF and has played 5 of 6 Under on the road. The 49ers have only beaten the spread in 1 of their last 5 home games and have played 5 of 7 Under at home.

Pick: SF -10. 49ers win 37-10 (Over)

DEN @ NE

DEN -3

54.5

Logic suggests I pick the Broncos to win. They’re the superior team, and New England has quite a few weaknesses that the Broncos should be able to exploit. For some reason, however, I can’t help but think that Belichick has something up his sleeve. He hates being a home underdog and rarely loses in that situation. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to New England and have played 14 of 21 Over on the road. The Pats are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and have played 8 of 9 Over at home.

Pick: NE +3. Pats win 37-31 (Over)

OAK @ SEA

SEA -15

43

I refuse to pick a defensive team to win by more than two touchdowns, regardless of their opponent. Plus the Seahawks haven’t been playing particularly well without Percy Harvin threatening opposing defenses. That was a terrible trade. Of course, I’m not stupid; there’s no way I’d pick against Seattle to win at home. Oakland is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on Turf and has played 7 of 8 Over in Seattle. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Oakland and have played 6 of 8 Under at home.

Pick: OAK +15. Seattle wins 23-13 (Under)

BAL @ PIT

BAL -2

48

Pittsburgh got a big win over the Colts, but I believe it was a fluke. Their offense will stall against the Ravens, especially with Baltimore coming off a tough divisional loss to the Bengals. It’s rare for me to pick a sweep in the AFC North, but I believe Baltimore will get it done. That said, it’s Steelers-Ravens; so it’ll undoubtedly be decided by a field goal.

Pick: BAL -2. Ravens win 23-20 (Under)

IND @ NYG

IND -3

50.5

Indy suffered a tough loss against the Steelers and will likely rebound against the Giants. Though New York has been tough to predict, I doubt they can keep up with Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indy is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with losing records and has played 5 straight road Overs. The Giants are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and have played 4 of 5 Under at home.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-24 (Over)

BYES: ATL, BUF, CHI, DET, GB, TEN