This week's post will be a little long, as I'd like to partially preview each team's season.
GB @ SEA
SEA -5
46
Seattle’s skill and depth on defense will keep
them in every game, but their offensive depth is concerning. If Lynch, Wilson,
or Harvin goes down, Seattle could have some major issues moving the ball.
Green Bay is poised to make a playoff run, beefing up the defense with the
addition of Julius Peppers. But will he be the standout Julius Peppers of old, or
the Julius Peppers who wasn’t nearly as effective as advertised in Chicago?
Time will tell. In week one, however, there’s no way I’d bet against a healthy
Seattle team at Qwest Field.
Pick: SEA -5. Seahawks
win 23-14 (Under)
MIN @ STL
STL -4
44
Not all games can be
winners…but I’m sure Vikings and Rams fans care about this one, so I better
come up with something to write. Minnesota’s offense could be pretty good. Greg
Jennings and breakout down-field threat Cordarrelle Patterson are an excellent
1-2 punch at receiver, and should help open things up for Adrian Peterson; or
vice versa. As long as his attempts to get out of Minnesota aren’t a
distraction, AP should be exceptional once again. The defense is a question
mark, especially after the departure of Jared Allen to NFC North rival Chicago,
so Minnesota may end up in some high-scoring shootouts. The Rams already lost
Bradford, but at least Shaun Hill knows he’s the starter and will get all of
the first team reps in practice. Unfortunately for Rams fans…well…Shaun Hill is
the starter. They vitally need rookie Tre Minor from Auburn to shine at RB,
otherwise this will be a very long season. The defense is solid, but I’m not
sure if the Rams can score enough points to win more than a handful of games. I
expect Minnesota to hang some big numbers on St. Louis and for the Rams to have
difficulty keeping up.
Pick: MIN +4. Vikings win
34-13 (Over)
NO @ ATL
NO -3
51.5
The Saints added Brandin
Cooks (OR ST) to an already potent offense led by a probably hall-of-fame
quarterback in Drew Brees. So they should be pretty good. Expect Mark Ingram to
have a breakout season and to become the impact player I expected him to be
coming out of ‘Bama. Rob Ryan’s solid defense had one small issue last season:
causing turnovers. Enter the ball hawk himself, Jairus Byrd, and New Orleans
becomes a strong favorite to make a Super Bowl run. Atlanta is much better than
last year’s record indicates. If Jones and Roddy White stay healthy, Stephen
Jackson plays to his potential, the just-ok defense can force some key
turnovers, and new addition Devin Hester – who literally outran a cheetah last
season – can make an impact on special teams, Atlanta should be right in the
division race. Unfortunately for them, they have to start out the year against
the Saints…
Pick: NO -3. Saints win
38-24 (Over)
CLE @ PIT
PIT -6.5
40.5
Neither Hoyer nor Manziel
will be an immediate success, so Ben Tate will have to shoulder the load if the
Browns are going to be in any sort of conversation beyond, “who’s going to get
the first pick in next year’s draft?” Their defense is decent, and with Pettine
– a defensive guru – at the helm, they could stay in some games. Week one could
be a prime example of such a game, as the Steelers and Browns tend to play
tight, low-scoring contests. The Steelers’ defense isn’t what it used to be,
but they’re still the Steelers; expect toughness, turnovers, big hits, and
grind-it-out football. The Steelers’ new 1-2 punch at running back (Le’Veon
Bell and LeGarrette Blount) should help as well. And, of course, they’ve still
got Big Ben; so anything short of a playoff run will be a disappointment.
Despite what I said 3 sentences ago, I don’t see this one being particularly
close. When they play in Cleveland later in the season I’ll probably predict a
closer contest.
Pick: Steelers -6.5. Pittsburgh
wins 27-12 (Under)
JAX @ PHI
PHI -10
53
What can I possibly say
about the Jaguars? They’ve never wavered from the “Chad Henne is our starting
quarterback” mantra, yet every jersey on display at training camp bore Blake
Bortles’ #5. I understand the idea of capitalizing financially on your new
addition – and hopefully franchise savior – but what message does that send to
Henne? The defense should be decent, but without Smokemon…oops, I mean Blackmon…this
offense is a lot less scary to defend. Marquise Lee could change that, but I
still think he’s a year or two away from breaking out. And there is no way in
hell that Toby Gerhart and Jordan Todman will carry this team. For all you
Bortles hopefuls: Be patient. The longer he stays the backup, the better he’ll
be down the road. This team isn’t winning anything this year anyway, so you
might as well suffer through as much Henne as possible before putting Bortles
in as a starter and risking a blow to his confidence that could affect him in
future seasons. Henne has always been a serviceable back-up, so barring injury
I expect him to be good enough to keep his job for the first 3-4 weeks of the
season anyway. I’m not sure what to expect from the Eagles this season, as the
departure of DeSean Jackson leaves a gaping hole in Nick Foles’ downfield
arsenal. That said, they’ll probably have the top rusher in the league in
LeSean McCoy, so every other wide receiver on the field will improve as a
result of opposing defenses’ attempts to stack the box. Nick Foles seems ready
for a starting spot, so despite some small regression from last season’s
ridiculous numbers, I still think he’ll be very good. The defense is decent,
but Trent Cole and company should be good enough to make the Eagles a
contender. In week one I expect the Jags to hang tough through the first half
before slowly fading off into oblivion.
Pick: PHI -10. Eagles win
31-10 (Under)
OAK @ NYJ
NYJ -5
39.5
The Raiders’ defensive
front seven should be stout thanks to the addition of Justin Tuck and Khalil
Mack, though I don’t expect much from Oakland’s secondary. Then again, if
Carlos Rogers plays out-of-his-mind at CB, the Raiders will be better than
expected. The running game might be the best in football, so assuming Maurice
Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden stay healthy, the Raiders could sniff a .500
record in December. That said, the offensive line will have something to say
about their success as well. Matt Schaub may cause groans in Oakland, but I
believe last year was an anomaly and I expect him to be much better in 2014.
Then again, it’s the Raiders; I’m sure they’ll find a way to screw everything
up. (Edit: One day after I wrote this preview, Oakland benched Schaub for rookie Derek Carr. So they're already screwing things up. I'll leave the pick as-is because I still expect a low-scoring game.) The Jets have been a hot mess lately, but finally jettisoning Mark Sanchez
should help provide more trust and cohesion in the locker room. Adding Michael
Vick could tear it all apart again, but if he’s as humble and workmanlike in
the locker room as he is in front of the media, the Jets should be ok. Chris
Johnson will be their X-factor; if he gets back to form, the Jets could contend
for a playoff spot. If not, a coach I respect as a defensive genius – Rex Ryan –
might be looking for a new job. As long as he’s there, though, expect any group
of players on the defensive side of the ball to be 50% better than they look on
paper. The Jets will win this game if their lackluster secondary can keep James
Jones at bay, but Geno Smith will have to move the offense, too.
Pick: OAK +5. The Jets
win 17-16 (Under)
CIN @ BAL
BAL -1.5
43
Cincy’s defense is among
the top five in the league, especially with Geno Smith back and healthy. AJ
Green is a constant threat on offense and Andy Dalton is a playoff-caliber QB.
Unfortunately they rarely play well in Baltimore. Flacco has a new toy in Steve
Smith, but can Smith be as effective as he once was in Carolina now that he’s
35 years old? Baltimore’s defense is also a bit of a question mark, but they
seem to always play well, so until they prove otherwise I’ll give them the
benefit of the doubt. The Ravens could struggle early while Ray Rice serves his
suspension, but history is on their side when playing the Bengals at home.
Pick: BAL -1.5. Ravens
win 17-13 (Under)
BUF @ CHI
CHI -7
48.5
The Bills’ defensive line
is outstanding. Unfortunately their linebacker corps is only decent without Kiko
Alonso and their secondary doesn’t look great after losing Byrd to the Saints.
I have also said from day 1 that I don’t trust EJ Manuel to lead the Bills to
the playoffs for the first time this MILLENIUM. Yes, it’s really been that long.
I didn’t trust Fitzpatrick to do it…nor Todd Collins…nor JP Losman…nor any of
the other crap-tastic signal callers the Bills have tried to throw behind
center over the last 14 years. The Bills need a legitimate starting quarterback
to help them rise from the depths of their mediocrity. If they were worse they’d
at least get top draft picks. Instead, they always end up between 6-10 and 8-8;
bad enough to miss the playoffs and good enough to miss the best draft picks.
Enough bitching; they traded up this year to get Sammy Watkins, and he looks
like the real deal. They have two great running backs – Fred Jackson and CJ
Spiller – and one of the better wide receiver corps in the league, with Watkins
joined by Mike Williams, Marquise Goodwin, and a guy I expect to be a future
star, Robert Woods. If EJ Manuel is better than I think he is – and I sincerely
hope that’s the case – Buffalo could actually surprise some people. That said,
I’ll believe it when I see it. In case you haven’t picked up on it, I’m a
long-suffering Bills fan. My second favorite team? The Chicago Bears. I LOVE Alshon
Jeffery and have been telling everyone how good he’d be since he was drafted. With
Brandon Marshall on the other side, Martellus Bennett at TE, and Matt Forte
running the ball, Chicago is a very difficult team to defend. Their defense had issues last year, but the
keen attention to the defensive line, adding Jared Allen among others, should
help them make great strides in 2014. As long as Tillman stays healthy and
forces turnovers, the Bears could be a contender for the NFC North title; and
possibly more. Unless the Bills’ defensive line literally kills Jay Cutler in
the first half, I expect the Bears to win a shootout.
Pick: CHI -7. Bears win
42-27 (Over)
WAS @ HOU
HOU -3
45
I know he just got to
Houston, but expect Ryan Mallett to contend for the starting job once he
becomes familiar with the playbook. Houston has JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney on
defense and Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense; all they need is a great
QB to tie it all together. Fitzpatrick isn’t it. I’ve been high on Mallett
since he was drafted out of Arkansas, and now that he’s spent the past few
seasons learning from Tom Brady I expect him to become a solid #1 quarterback.
It’s just a matter of time. Washington is a big question mark. RG3 now has
DeSean Jackson as a solid deep threat, but will he throw the ball downfield or
revert to being scramble-happy? Roy Helu and Alfred Morris are a solid RB
combo, but Washington’s offensive line will have to perform significantly
better than last year for this team to effectively move the ball. If the line
is porous, RG3 might die. The Redskins’ defense is no better than average, and
they’re going to have to avoid big plays – especially against a team like
Houston – if they’re going to win more than a handful of games.
Pick: HOU -3. Texans win
33-27 (Over)
TEN @ KC
KC -4.5
43.5
Tennessee always surprises
me by getting decent production out of a roster of players that I’ve never
heard of. Don’t get me wrong; I’m familiar with Jake Locker, Nate Washington,
Shonn Greene, and a few others. But can you name 3 of Tennessee’s defensive
starters? If so, you’re probably a Titans fan. Despite their under-the-radar
status, they play well as a group. Locker is no better than serviceable, so I
believe this team rests on Greene’s shoulders. If he has a good year, the Titans
could be as high as 8-8. If he doesn’t, 5-11 or 6-10 looks like a good bet.
Kansas City started last year strong but eventually fizzled. Alex Smith is good
enough to win, but the defense has to find some consistency. They have big name
players (I’ll bet you can name 3 guys on KC’s defense …) but they only generate
pressure in spurts, leaving a lackluster secondary exposed and vulnerable to
big plays. The loss of McCluster’s big-play ability will hurt, but the Chiefs’
success will ultimately be determined by the play of their secondary. Luckily
for them, Tennessee doesn’t have a particularly potent passing attack; so I
expect the Chiefs to start the season on the right foot.
Pick: TEN +4.5. Kansas
City wins 20-17 (Under)
NE @ MIA
NE -4.5
47
New England is going to
be really, really good. If everything goes according to plan, they’ll win the
Super Bowl. Darrelle Revis will shut down every opponent’s top receiver, and
Brandon Browner – who the Pats snagged after he won the Super Bowl with Seattle
– will shut down most teams’ second-best option. The Pats’ secondary is now as
good, or better than, Seattle’s. On offense, the Pats have a guy named Tom Brady
who people say is pretty good. He doesn’t have the threats he once did, but he’s
all the Pats really need. Remember Danny Woodhead? Brady made him good. Now he’s
in San Diego reaping the financial rewards of his time in New England while
serving as a third-string running back. Brady will either find or create
options and the Pats will be awesome. Miami, however, will not be. Tannehill
will never be more than serviceable, partly because he was thrown into the fire
too quickly as a rookie. Brady learned under Bledsoe. Rodgers learned under
Favre. There are exceptions to the rule (e.g. Andrew Luck), but most rookie
quarterbacks, unless they are once-in-a-generation guys who ran pro systems in
college, should not become immediate starters in the NFL. Miami has also failed
to protect him (O-line allowed most sacks in 2013), which certainly hasn’t
helped his confidence. Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno should be a great
running back tandem, but none of Miami’s receivers is a true “#1” guy. They
have a lot of really good receivers, but most of them are better as slot guys
or second options. I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing…but
time will tell. Usually the fins play the Pats close at home, but chances are
good that the Pats will still win by more than 4 ½.
Pick: Pats -4.5. New
England wins 34-17 (Over)
CAR @ TB
TB -1
39.5
Carolina returns the
entire front seven from the league’s second best defense in 2013, so they
should be fine on that side of the ball. But can Newton and the offense move
the rock consistently? The Panthers have a great tight end in Greg Olsen, but
their wide receivers are all second-tier players that fizzled out with other
teams (e.g. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets and Jason Avant, Eagles). The running game
will be solid with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart still splitting
carries. I think they were the original running back tandem that sparked most
other teams in the league to move away from having a single “featured back”; I’m
amazed they’re both still with the Panthers. Though often overlooked, Mike
Tolbert is a great fullback in a league where fullbacks seem to be a part of
the past, not the present. Carolina will prove that an elite fullback can still
be effective in today’s NFL. Tampa Bay will win some games, especially if Josh
McCown plays the way he did in Chicago last season. He has quite a few options
as well as a strong running back in Doug Martin. The defense should be stout as
well, with Gerald McCoy likely to have an outstanding season in the middle of
the Bucs’ “new” Tampa 2 scheme, a throwback to the Bucs’ team that won the
Super Bowl a little more than a decade ago. I’ve always respected Lovie Smith
and believe his Bucs will be immediately competitive.
Pick: CAR +1. Carolina
wins 18-13 (Under)
SF @ DAL
SF -5
51
Is there any doubt that
Dallas will go 8-8 again? Jerry’s ‘Boys just seem to have that aura of
mediocrity surrounding them. The defense was TERRIBLE last season and is now
without Sean Lee (injury) and Demarcus Ware (Denver). So in theory they’ll be
even worse. The offense is similar, with Romo, Bryant, Witten, and Murray all
providing solid options at their respective positions. But can Dallas really
expect better results with essentially the same offense and an already
horrendous defense that’s missing two key contributors? San Francisco will have
some bumps in the road, too. Bowman (ACL), Smith (Idiocy, alcoholism, etc), and
Dorsey (Torn Biceps) are already out for the first chunk of the season. The
offense should improve, with Gore likely freed up by teams spreading out to
cover the 49ers talented wide receiver trio; Stevie Johnson, Michael Crabtree,
and Anquan Boldin. All three have the talent to be #1 WRs, so as long as
Kaepernick continues to improve the 49ers should be able to score plenty of
points. This game has the potential to be a shootout, and I don’t think Dallas
can go as high as San Francisco.
Pick: SF -5. 49ers win
42-31 (Over)
IND @ DEN
DEN -7
55
Indianapolis is going to
be very good again. Combine Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, a healthy Reggie Wayne,
the addition of Hakeem Nicks, a solid group of tight ends, and two excellent
running backs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson, and you have the potential
for a lot of points to be scored. I’m not sure how good the defense will be,
but with an offense like that you don’t really need much D! Denver is in the
same boat, although their defense is a bit better and should have some solid
games throughout the season. The opener, however, probably won’t be one of
them. Denver is an obvious favorite to make another Super Bowl run, especially
with Peyton Manning continuing to age. How many more shots does he really have?
Unfortunately for Denver, Wes Welker has had 3 concussions in the past 10
months, so keep an eye on him. If he gets one more it will likely be the end of
his season. The Broncos will still have enough options to be dangerous, but
after losing Eric Decker in the offseason, you can bet they were counting on
Wes Welker to have a big year. I have little doubt that this game will be a
shootout, and I expect the elder statesman to show why he is widely considered
the best in the game.
Pick: IND +7. Denver wins
45-42 (Over)
NYG @ DET
DET -4.5
47
The Giants have a new
offensive coordinator – Ben McAdoo – and a completely new scheme. I doubt Eli
Manning will adjust to it immediately, so expect some growing pains early in
the season. Thankfully for the Giants, the Lions’ secondary isn’t very good; so
the growing pains might not be immediately evident. If Victor Cruz has a good
season and Eli stops throwing the ball to the wrong team, the Giants’ offense
should be ok. The defense will look a lot different without Justin Tuck, but
Kiwanuka, Pierre-Paul, and Ayers are still a formidable group and will ensure
that the Giants still have a strong D-line. Jameel McClain is a strong addition
to the linebacker corps, but the secondary may end up giving Tom Coughlin a few
headaches. While the Giants entertain a new offensive scheme, Detroit has to
get used to an entirely new coaching staff. It’ll be interesting to watch the
relationship between the fiery, unsportsmanlike Ndamakong Suh and the
incredibly sportsmanlike, reserved Caldwell play out as the season progresses.
I imagine Caldwell won’t take kindly to Suh’s antics. The Lions need Bell to
stay healthy to prevent teams from keying on the pass, as Reggie Bush isn’t
enough of a running threat to keep opposing defenses honest. They’ll also need
to pray for miracles in the secondary, as if their starters get hurt they may have
to put wide receivers in at CB. They have absolutely no depth in the back four.
I expect Eli Manning to rebound in week one and to get the Giants started on a
positive note.
Pick: NYG +4.5. The Giants
win 35-31 (Over)
SD @ ARI
ARI -3
45
San Diego has enough
weapons to make some noise in the AFC West. Now that Norv Turner is finally
gone, maybe they’ll find a way to stop underachieving! The addition of Dwight
Freeney will help the Chargers defense and San Diego has plenty of weapons on
offense to put up points. They also have one of the best offensive lines in
football; a blessing Ryan Matthews and Philip Rivers will be thankful for every
week. Side note: As a Bills fan, I’m also excited to see what Frank Reich will
do in his first season as offensive coordinator! Arizona has the offensive
talent to excel, but they’ve lost a few key players from last season’s solid
defense. I’m also worried that Patrick Peterson will have a bad season now that
he’s signed his long-term deal. For some reason players often play complacent
in the first year of a lucrative new deal. If Carson Palmer is effective, he
certainly has enough targets to put up points. I just don’t think he’ll put up
as many points as Rivers and the Chargers.
Pick: SD +3. Chargers win
27-20 (Over)
