NFL Week Eight Preview

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -1.5

O/U: 43.5

Is it possible to determine which team needs a win more? Miami was the victim of an officiating mistake that cost them last week's game against the Steelers. Cincy has just been playing poorly. I think they'll show up to play at home, but will it be enough? In the end, I feel like Miami is battle-tested (check out their schedule...only 1 easy game so far), and is a better team when they're on the road.

Trends: The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Cincy. Cincy is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against Miami.

My Pick: Dolphins +1.5. Happy to be getting points on this one. Miami wins 23-17.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -1

O/U: 44.5

I find this line to be quite intriguing. Detroit has had an extra week to prepare, but I don't trust their coaching staff enough to say that the extra week will have much of an effect. Stafford is back, but the Detroit offense did just fine without him. Despite the fact that the Skins know how to win, Detroit has the weapons to score a lot of points against the league's second-worst defense, and they have just enough defense of their own to prevent the Skins from getting back in the game.

Trends: The Skins have lost 4 straight ATS before a bye. The Lions have played 6 straight Unders after a bye.

My Pick: Lions -1. Detroit wins 27-23.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -5

O/U: 42.5

Clearly the Jets are the better team right now, given all of the Packers' injuries. The Jets are also coming off a bye, so they've had an extra week to prepare. When Rex Ryan is your coach, that extra week is huge. I also think Green Bay will come out a little flat after last week's emotional win. Even if they aren't flat, I think the Jets D will keep them very much in check.

Trends: The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Jets are 7-1 SU v. Green Bay since 1991.

My Pick: Jets -5. New York's defense impresses in a 24-10 win.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 37

I actually think the Panthers have more talent than the Rams, but St. Louis has shown that they know how to win. Last week was a tough loss to swallow for the Rams, and I think they'll be hungrier for this win than will the Panthers, who just last week escaped with their first win of the year. With Matt Moore back, Steve Smith in the lineup, and JOnathan Stewart doing his thing, I just don't know if the Rams, who could be looking ahead to their bye week, will be able to keep up. If Deangelo Williams (game-time decision) does NOT play, I'd bet against the Panthers. If he does play, I'll take them to win. I'm betting on him playing.

Trends: The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against St. Louis. The Rams' Over has been 9-1 in their last 10 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 17-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 43.5

This game will come down to the mindset of the Dallas Cowboys team. They have two options: They can be down on themselves for playing terribly, being attacked by the media, and being without Romo. Or they can sack up and prove everyone wrong. I'm not in their locker room, but I have a feeling that when their backs are against the wall, they tend to perform better. Also of note: Jacksonville is terrible.

Trends: The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 pre-bye games. Three of these teams' past four meetings were played Under.

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 31-10.

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 46

Thank you oddsmakers - you've made this an easy pick. BUffalo played very well against Baltimore last week, and I don't think a trip to KC will scare them much. I'm not sure they'll win, but I cerainly think they can make it a close game. Their mindset at 0-6 has likely started to drift toward not going 0-16, and this game is one of 3 or 4 "easier" games left on the schedule.

Trends: The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against KC. 7 of these teams' last 8 meetings have been played Under.

My Pick: Bills +7.5. Buffalo wins outright - that's right, I'm calling win #1 - 24-20.

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN FRANCiSCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -1.5

O/U: 42

Most teams respond to utter embarassment with a strong performance the following week - I expect nothing less of the Broncos. San Fran finds ways to lose, and I feel like their team has already mentally checked out of this season.

Trends: The Broncos are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 trips to San Fran. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS their last 6 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Broncos +1.5. Denver wins 21-17.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3.5

O/U: 44.5

The Chargers have been shooting themselves in the foot all season long. Without all of the turnovers against New England they would have won the game. Tennessee is a solid squad, and I certainly think they can "take" the Chargers. I'm just not sure whether I should give the Chargers more than a field goal. We'll let the Trends decide...

Trends: The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 6 games before a bye. The Chargers have won 6 straight ATS against Tennessee.

My Pick: Chargers -3.5. San Diego wins 21-17.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -5

O/U: 44

If Favre doesn't start, the world will come to an end. That may be an exaggeration, but I do think it would be a shame to let a coach's decision end one of the most impressive streaks in all of sports. He's retiring at the end of the season - let him go out there on a bum wheel and risk tearing it to shreds if that's what he wants to do. It's not like you have to protect his future. You need to win NOW. If Favre doesn't play, they'll lose by plenty, as I think the rest of the team will react poorly to the situation and will not be 100% in the game. If he plays, Minny should beat the spread, if not win the game. It's hero time, Brett. Percy just missed getting his toe down last week to let you leave Lambeau in glory. Now is your chance to come out and create a moment that will last forever.

Trends: The Vikings are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 against the AFC East. These teams' past 4 meetings were played Under.

My Pick: Vikings +5. They haven't ruled him out, which means he ought to start. Go Vikings! Minny wins outright on sheer emotion, 23-20.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 39.5

This one could go either way. Tampa knows how to win; Arizona can put up big point totals at home. In the end, my vote has to go for the team whose quarterbacks are not Derek Anderson and Max Hall. Plus I like the way rookie wideout Mike Williams (Go Orange!) has been playing.

Trends: The Bucs have lost 11 straight October road games SU. 6 of these teams' past 7 meetings in the desert were played Under.

My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa wins 20-17.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 42

I think both teams will lose...Seattle is awful on the road, and the Raiders should have a big letdown after their domination of the Broncos last week. The fact that sways this pick? I think Oakland accidentally scored their entire allotment of points for the rest of the season in that one game in Denver.

Trends: The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their 10 against Oakland. The Raiders are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 against Seattle.

My Pick: Seahawks +2.5. Seattle wins 28-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -1

O/U: 44

I know the "Who Dat Nation" can, at times, will their team to victory, and they'll be especially rowdy on Halloween night against the Steelers. Problem: "Who dat" isn't just the Saints fan club right now...it's also what everyone says when they look into New Orleans' backfield. Bush and Thomas are still out. They won't be able to beat the Steelers D without a balanced attack.

Trends: Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the NFC South. The Saints are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 against Pittsburgh.

My Pick: Steelers +1. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 50

The Colts aren't happy that the Texans beat them in week one. Both teams are coming off of their bye weeks, so neither gains an advantage in that respect. Peyton against the league's worst defense makes me think "slaughter", but the Colts will likely allow their fair share of points as well against a solid Houston offense.

Trends: The Texans Under is 5-1 in their last 6 after a bye. The Colts Over is 9-2 in their last 11 after a bye.

My Pick: Texans +5.5. Indy wins 31-28.

Byes: ATL, BAL, CHI, CLE, NYG, PHI

NFL Week Seven Recap

Week Seven Picks: 10-4

Week Seven ATS: 7-7

Overall Picks: 67-37

Overall ATS: 55-45-4

Who Dat? The Browns? Really?

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -13

O/U: 43

My Pick: Saints -13. New Orleans wins 30-13.

Result: Browns 30-17

Did anyone get this pick right? I doubt it. Not my fault. New Orleans, please wake the hell up. You're better than that.

Four Full Quarters

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-17.

Result: Titans 37-19

You can't play for 60% of an NFL game and win. Plus the Eagles looked like they were trying to lose even during the part of the game when they were ahead. 37-19 isn't representative of how close the game was, but I was right - the Titans did get the W.

WTF Buffalo? You wait until NOW to start playing?

BUFFALO BILLS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -13

O/U: 40

My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore crushes the Bills 30-6.

Result: Ravens 37-34 (ot)

As a Bills fan, I can't even be that upset about the Bills' valiant effort. If they play like that, they'll win at least a couple games this year.

Too bad Deangelo Hall isn't a Bear...

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40

My Pick: Redskins +3. Washington wins outright 17-10.

Result: Redskins 17-14

...because Cutler sure does like to throw him the ball! If he were a Bear, he'd have been their leading receiver, and would have been second on the receiving corps with four catches. If you're a Chicago fan, that has to make you angry. A weird game all-in-all, but Washington continues to find ways to win.

Miami may as well have won...

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Steelers -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins a slugfest 17-13.

Result: Steelers 23-22

The first of the games where I went against my gut feeling...for some reason I thought the Dolphins would win, but I couldn't come up with any logical explanation as to how they'd do it. Like the Lions in week one, the Fins won that game and were shafted by the officials. Yes, the official's decision was correct - but the whistle shouldn't have blown. It may even cost them a wild card spot when we get to the end of the season.

Again, may as well have won...

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Bucs -2.5. Tampa wins 17-10.

Result: Bucs 18-17

The other gut feeling I went against was that the Rams would win. I had actually written up the preview as though I was picking the Rams, and changed it all after I decided to go against my gut. I was right to change in one sense - Tampa got the win - but not by 2.5 points. That's one you chalk up to a game being closer than you'd have expected. No big deal.

TOcho Distraction Show

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.

Result: Falcons 39-32

TO and Ochocinco didn't need to start their own TV show. They may not feel it's a distraction, but it certainly seems that way. They have enough talent to be better than 2-4. Heck, they beat the Ravens!

Thought So!

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 35.5

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins it as a home underdog 17-13.

Result: Panthers 23-20

I knew they were good enough to get a win soon, and the 49ers, like the Cowboys, just seem to find a way to lose.

Whew...

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -9

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Chiefs -9. Kansas City wins 20-10.

Result: Chiefs 42-20

This game was close for a while, but KC finally pulled away at the end. I was worried that my initial reaction was correct - that KC wasn't a good enough squad to spot 9 points. Turns out they are...

Was Max Hall the glue that was keeping the Cards' paper ship afloat?

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Seahawks -5.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Cards +5.5. Seattle wins 20-17.

Result: Seahawks 22-10

I had no idea Max Hall's injury would kill the Cards' offense. He's no better than Anderson; or so I thought. Seattle scored the same number of points I expected them to...but the Cards disappointed me!

The Raiders scored how many points?

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -8.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Raiders +8.5. Denver wins 24-20.

Result: Raiders 59-14

That's embarrassing. You let the RAIDERS score 59 points on you. For shame.

Told ya

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 47

My Pick: Pats +3. I still can't believe I'm getting points on this. New England wins 21-17.

Result: Pats 23-20

San Diego put up a better fight than I expected, but they didn't start playing until the fourth quarter. Amazing how many Chargers-and-Cowboys-like teams we have this year; big expectation, ZERO results.

Almost Magic

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 27-20.

Result: Packers 28-24

Brett Favre comes out with a minute remaining, team down by four, on a broken ankle, and somehow leads them on a game-winning drive, capped off by a touchdown pass on 4th and 15 on which he trips over the center, gets back up, breaks a tackle, and heaves one downfield to Moss for the score. Too bad it never happened. This was a few inches from being "one of those games". The type you tell your children about 20 years from now. The type you brag to your friends about having stayed up late to watch the end of. Instead, it was just a simple Packers win.

Hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahaahhahaha

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas rolls the Giants 34-14.

Result: Giants 41-35

As you can see, the decimation of the Cowboys season pains me a great deal. I never thought they were that good. Certainly better than 1-5, but I thought all the Super Bowl hype was nothing more than wishful thinking. People wanted to see a team play in a home Super Bowl. Wait until next year - The Giants and Jets are both solid. I'd consider it a 1 in 12 chance that a New York team will get a home Super Bowl. (Appx. 24 teams will have ANY shot at a Super Bowl next year; NY has two of those 24. Hence 1 in 12. Not bad odds...)

NFL Week Seven Preview

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -13

O/U: 43

The Saints still have no running game, but seem to have done just fine against Tampa last week. If they were a running team with no passing attack, I might pick the Browns to cover. Cleveland has a lot of fight in them, but most of their skill position players are banged up. New Orleans should be able to throw all over the Browns and should win big, especially at home.

Trends: The Browns have played 8 straight Unders against the NFC South. New Orleans is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC NOrth.

My Pick: Saints -13. New Orleans wins 30-13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 43

I keep expecting Kevin Kolb to screw up, but he just keeps proving me wrong. This week, however, he's without the speedy Desean Jackson, and Vick is back and ready to take over if Kolb screws up. The Eagles will be lacking speed with Jackson on the sideline, and I expect Reid to turn to Vick frequently to give the team a burst. I'm not sure Vick in a limited role will be enough, though. Kerry Collins can run the Titans offense (so could a fourth-grader...just hand the ball to CJ!), and I think Tennessee's defense will be strong enough to stifle the Eagles.

Trends: The Eagles have lost 3 straight SU to Tennessee. The Titans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 October home games.

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-17.

BUFFALO BILLS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -13

O/U: 40

The Bills have had an extra week to gameplan for the Ravens. That won't matter - 10 points will be tough to come. The Bills O against the Ravens D is like throwing eggs against a brick wall. The Ravens will score plenty; the Bills won't. Of course, now that I've picked it this way, Buffalo will score a late touchdown to lose by 12 and screw me against the spread. Just watch...

Trends: The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 post-bye games. These teams have played their last 4 meetings Under.

My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore crushes the Bills 30-6.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40

This is an incredibly unpredictable matchup. The league's worst defense plays in Washington, but we all know they're better than the statistics show. McNabb is fully capable of leading the offense to a win against a strong Bears' D, and the Skins seem to beat all of the teams they're "not supposed" to beat. Plus the Bears have no idea how to protect their quarterback, and the Redskins have a pretty good D-line.

Trends: The Redskins are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last 9 against Chicago. The Bears have lost six ATS in a row against the Skins.

My Pick: Redskins +3. Washington wins outright 17-10.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Steelers -3

O/U: 40.5

This pick scares me, but for some reason I feel like the Dolphins are a good pick as a home underdog. Roethlisberger looked ok last week, but he's not 100% up to speed yet, and Miami may be able to exploit that. Pittsburgh's defense has been incredible, but Miami will throw in just enough wrinkles to make things interesting. Then again, the Steelers will be fired up after all the BS surrounding Harrison this week, and I think that added fire will propel them to victory.

Trends: The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Miami. Six of these teams' past eight meetings have been played Under.

My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins a slugfest 17-13.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -2.5

O/U: 38

The Rams seem to know how to win this year, but so do the Bucs. Tampa is home, which will help, but their three wins were all crappy teams. What does that say? It says that when Tampa comes into a game thinking they can win, they do. I also expect St. Louis to have a bit of a hangover after a big win over San Diego.

Trends: The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against Tampa. The Under is 13-2 the last 15 times Tampa has faced the NFC West.

My Pick: Bucs -2.5. Tampa wins 17-10.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 42.5

Atlanta is the better team, and coming off a loss, I expect them to be hungry. Cincy's Chad Ochocinco sent the secondary a little present, as well, which may have fired them up. The Bengals have had an extra week to gameplan, but with TO and Ocho distracted by their new TV show, I doubt they're 100% ready to play. Cincy has the defense to shut down certain offenses, but I don't know if Atlanta's is one of them.

Trends: The Bengals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 October road games. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 35.5

Carolina isn't a horrible team, yet they sit at 0-5. San Fran has only one win, and seems to find a way to lose every single week. Should the 49ers win? Yes. Will they? I wouldn't bet on it. The Panthers have played hard, and with an extra week to prepare, I expect them to get win #1.

Trends: The 49ers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against Carolina. The Panthers have played Under 6 of their last 7 post-bye games.

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins it as a home underdog 17-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -9

O/U: 37.5

We don't yet know who the Jaguars' starting quarterback will be...but it could be newly acquired (from his couch...) Todd Bouman. That should be good enough for me to take the Chiefs, who have looked quite good. I just have this sinking feeling that the Chiefs aren't quite as good as everyone thinks, and that spotting them 9 points is a dangerous proposition at best. In the end, it all comes down to who can run the ball effectively. Both teams have strong backs, but KC's D is #5 against the run, while the Jags are just #19.

Trends: The Jags are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against eh AFC West. The Chiefs have lost 7 in a row SU to the AFC South.

My Pick: Chiefs -9. Kansas City wins 20-10.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Seahawks -5.5

O/U: 40.5

Seattle has looked invincible at home. Arizona played well two weeks ago, but for some reason I don't see them putting together a winning effort against the Seahawks, despite having an extra week to prepare. I do think they'll keep it close, however.

Trends: The Cards Under is 9-3 their last 12 games before a bye. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the Cards.

My Pick: Cards +5.5. Seattle wins 20-17.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -8.5

O/U: 41.5

Oakland has been playing close games all season. Their only loss of more than 8 was in week one against the Titans. So why would I pick the Broncos to blow them out? Then again, I never can get a good read on the Broncos.

Trends: The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Denver. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 within the division.

My Pick: Raiders +8.5. Denver wins 24-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 47

Can anyone tell me why San Diego is favored in this game? They've been awful. They lost to the Rams..THE RAMS...last week. Their first six games should have been a cake walk (take a look - it may be the easiest 6-game schedule I've ever seen...), yet they're 2-4. The Pats should wipe the floor with the Chargers. They have the potential to win, and if they were underdogs I'd think about picking them, but there is far more than a 50% chance that they'll lose or win by less than 3 than there is that they'll win by 4+. I'd have placed the spread at Pats +1, in case you were curious.

Trends: The past three meetings between these teams in San Diego have all been played Under. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Pats' last 11 games against the AFC West.

My Pick: Pats +3. I still can't believe I'm getting points on this. New England wins 21-17.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

Both teams really need a win. The Packers have no ground game to speak of, but Aaron Rodgers is certainly capable of burning the Vikings through the air. Favre has looked pedestrian all season, but I can guarantee he'll be back to form when he hits the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau field. Clay Matthews will likely play, but I doubt that his presence will immediately fix the Packers' woes. The secondary is still banged up, and Favre knows how to win in Green Bay. Plus he'll have the Vikings pumped up for a win. And they really need it.

Trends: The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Green Bay. Five of the teams' last six meetings were played Over.

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 27-20.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -3

O/U: 44

The Giants aren't that great, and now that everyone thinks they are, they'll get even worse. That's just the way they always seem to play - they win when they're underdogs and lose when they're favorites. And I mean that in the "media" sense, and not necessarily in regard to the betting line. Dallas needed a win last week, so now they REALLY need a win. As hilarious as I would find a 1-5 Dallas team, I just can't imagine them losing this game. They've gotta be psyched up and ready to go, and the Giants are susceptible to getting rocked by a team that comes out hot - if you don't believe me, go back and see what happened when they played the Titans.

Trends: The Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against Dallas. The Cowboys are 9-2 SU in their last 11 October home games.

My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas rolls the Giants 34-14.

Byes: DET, HOU, IND, NYJ

NFL Week Six Recap

Week Six Picks: 10-4

Week Six ATS: 7-6-1

Overall Picks: 57-33

Overall ATS: 48-38-4

Seriously, San Diego?

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls the Rams 38-20.

Result: Rams 20-17

So not only did the Rams beat the spread, but they actually won this game? Really? If you had a video tape of the game and asked me to bet on the outcome, I'd still take the Chargers. That's how ridiculous the outcome was. I saw it, I heard it, and I still don't buy it. The Chargers are in DEEP trouble if they can't beat St. Louis, especially given their loss to lowly Oakland the week before.

So much for Trends

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago wins 31-10.

Result: Seahawks 23-20

Seattle looked great at home and awful on the road through 5 weeks. So naturally they come out in week 6 and beat a 4-1 team on the road. What's going on this week? These outcomes seem surreal...

So Close

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -4.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Texans -4.5. Houston 37-22.

Result: Texans 35-31

I have no idea how the Chiefs scored 31 points, but at least the Texans came back and won. That said, I hate when I lose a pick based on a half point. Although I suppose I'd be just as upset if the spread had been five.

I got one Right!

DETROIT LIONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -10

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Lions +10. Giants win 27-20.

Result: Giants 28-20

It's always nice to be one point off of a perfect pick, especially in a crazy week like week 6 where just about everything went awry. The Giants are going to fall back to the pack now that people expect them to be good. That's just the way they roll. The Lions are a solid squad, and will continue to challenge almost every opponent. Matt Stafford's return could even propel them to a win or two that you wouldn't have expected out of them when the season began (i.e. Bears, Packers).

As Usual...

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -13.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Browns +13.5. Pittsburgh wins 20-9.

Result: Steelers 28-10

I've done this before. It seems like every time the Steelers play the Browns and are favored by 10+ points I convince myself that it's going to be a low-scoring game, only to watch Pittsburgh blow the game wide open and beat the spread handily.

Back to Business

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Saints -4

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Saints -4. New Orleans gets the W, 27-17.

Result: Saints 31-6

The Saints finally found some enthusiasm! It's good to see them back on track. The Bucs are clearly better than last year, but are not "for real" like the Chiefs. In other words, they may win a few more games, but they'll be heavy underdogs to all the good teams they play and will be out of playoff contention by week 12.

Uh Oh...

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 17-13.

Result: Dolphins 23-20 (OT)

The Packers' injuries are really catching up to them. You can't help but feel bad for them. They've got some of the best fans in the league and had such high hopes for this season - but the injury bug hath bitten the Pack yet again.

Don't Mess With Belichick

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Patriots -2.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Pats -2.5. New England wins 17-14.

Result: Pats 23-20 (OT)

I honestly made this pick solely because Belichick had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens. And I was right. Point Made.

How Good are the Eagles?

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Falcons +3. Atlanta wins outright 16-10.

Result: Eagles 31-17

I'm actually asking, because I have no idea. I didn't expect much from them under Kolb, but thought they might do some interesting things with Vick under center. As soon as he went down, I went back to assuming they were Buffalo 2.0 - A team with an OK defense and no quarterback. Apparently I was wrong and Kevin Kolb IS good enough to win games. He'll probably have a bad game here or there, but he's been solid the past 2+ weeks. Atlanta is too good to lose to teams like Philly...they need to dig deeper.

They really shouldn't have needed a comeback...

NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-13.

Result: Jets 24-20

It's a bit scary that the Jets needed a late comeback to beat the Broncos, who should have had very little success against the Jets D. Another way to look at it, however, is that the Jets had a bad game - a small letdown before their bye week - and still got the win. They'll come out after the Bye ready to play, and will likely avoid any more stumbles for at least another few weeks after analyzing all the things they did wrong against Denver.

Finally a Win!

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ sAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -6.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: 49ers -6.5. San Francisco needs a win. They get it 24-13.

Result: 49ers 17-9

Quite the offensive slugfest. Alex Smith is not the answer...if San Fran wants to win games, they're going to need to do it defensively, like they did against Oakland.

HAHAHAHAHA, Dallas is 1-4

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota gets win #2, 24-20.

Result: Vikings 24-21

In case you didn't notice, I'm thrilled that the Cowboys are 1-4, especially given the expectations everyone had for them this season. They were "supposed" to be the first team to play a Super Bowl at home. Now it looks like they are long shots to reach the playoffs! Part of my joy is also due to my respect for Favre, Peterson, and the Vikings. I like to see them win, and with the Packers faltering, would enjoy watching them fight for a playoff spot down the stretch...a 1-4 start would have likely precluded them from being anywhere near playoff contention late in the year.

A little defense, anyone?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Colts -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-13.

Result: Colts 27-24

I had Indy's score right, but didn't realize that they'd let Washington score so many points. Did you know that Washington's defense is statistically the worst in the league? Isn't that crazy? They're 3-3 (which is better than normal for them, as of late), and have basically ridden their defense to wins for years. Now that the offense is no longer useless, the defense has gotten worse. They still have the players to be solid, though. If that D pulls it together, the Skins could make a run toward the playoffs. Especially with Dallas at 1-4. Hahaha. Makes me laugh every time.

QB Issues

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 45

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-10.

Result: Titans 30-3

I pretty much expected Tennessee to dominate. The one thing I didn't expect was for all of the quarterbacks to get hurt! It's not rare for a team to go out and sign a player, even a quarterback, in between games. It is VERY rare for a team to go out and sign a STARTING quarterback between games. Poor Jacksonville. They're hoping Garrard and/or Edwards can be ready for Sunday, but all the practice reps are going to two guys who were watching Monday Night's game from the comfort of their living rooms. I think the Chiefs may be able to end their two game losing streak, as the Jags won't be putting up much of a fight.

NFL Week Six Preview

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45

San Diego has been predictably inconsistent thus far - a loss last week to an inferior opponent means that they'll win big this week. They also have the #1 offense in the NFL, statistically, and the Rams defense is in the league's bottom third in all statistical categories.

Trends: The Chargers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 October road games. All 6 meetings between these teams since 1988 have been played Over.

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls the Rams 38-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 37.5

Seattle is another predictable team - at home they win, on the road they get blown out. The Chicago D should be able to handle the Seahawks lackluster offense, and if the Bears can beat the desperate Panthers without Cutler, they can sure as hell beat the Rams with him.

Trends: The Seahawks have played 10 straight Overs after a bye. Six of the last 7 Bears October home games have been played Over.

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago wins 31-10.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -4.5

O/U: 45

At some point this season the Chiefs have to get blown out. They're not a bad team, but the offense hasn't played well enough to win a shootout, and I just don't see that defense playing superb every single week. After a rough home loss to the Giants, the Texans are out to show that they're a contender. The Texans are banged up, but I think they'll still put a hurting on the Chiefs.

Trends: The road team has covered 4 of the past 5 meetings in this series. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Texans -4.5. Houston 37-22.

DETROIT LIONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -10

O/U: 44.5

After a big win over the Rams, I'm concerned that Detroit will come into this game with the wrong mindset. If that's the case, they could lose big. But so far this season Detroit has played every opponent close. New York is now being thought of in an overly high regard after dominating the Texans, and the Giants have always been the type of team that plays better when the odds are stacked against them. Once they get big heads, they screw up.

Trends: The Lions have lost 6 straight ATS headed into a bye week. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home matchups against the Lions.

My Pick: Lions +10. Giants win 27-20.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -13.5

O/U: 37.5

This is an oversized spread. McCoy is starting for the first time, and couldn't have picked a worse defense to try to compete against in his first NFL game. The Steelers, however, come out with Roethlisberger playing his first game of the season. I don't expect him to be 100% ready, and I think Mike Tomlin, being the pragmatist that he is, will settle for a run-oriented offense (that's Steeler football anyway) rather than fully taking the reigns off of Ben. He may have one of two shots down the field, but barring a ton of Browns turnovers, I expect this to be a clsoe, low-scoring, defensive game.

Trends: The Browns are 1-4 SU 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Pittsburgh. The Over is 6-1-1 in the teams' last 8 meetings in the Steel City.

My Pick: Browns +13.5. Pittsburgh wins 20-9.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Saints -4

O/U: 43.5

I know the NFC South has a lot of parity. I know the Bucs have been playing well. I know the last place one year generally becomes the first place team the next. But the talent level and experience of the Saints, even with injuries, ought to shine through enough to keep them from falling to .500.

Trends: The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips to Tampa. The Bucs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 October home games.

My Pick: Saints -4. New Orleans gets the W, 27-17.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 45.5

The Packers seem to be injury plagued every year. Let me be the first (that I know of) to coin this term: The Favre Curse. We'll see if they can overcome their problems against the Fins, but the holes on defense may be exploited against a balanced Dolphin attack (assuming Henne shows up...), and Rodgers isn't at 100%. Even if he were healthy, he's missing one of his favorite targets, Jermichael Finley. The Packers were a top preseason pick, but as I expected, they've stumbled. That said, the Dolphins are a warm-weather team playing at Lambeau field, so the logical answer may not be the correct one.

Trends: The Dolphins are 1-10 SU in their last 11 October road games. The Packers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 against the AFC East.

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 17-13.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Patriots -2.5

O/U: 45

Both of these teams are solid, and the change from Moss to Branch shouldn't affect the Pats' offensive rhythm too much. Flacco and the Ravens are more than capable of scoring points, too...so this one comes down to the defense. The Ravens' defense versus the Pats' defense...ok, so that matchup is obvious. Special teams leans toward the Pats. The X factors? Belichik has had 2 weeks to prepare, and the Ravens are 1 for 7 against the Pats in team history.

Trends: The Ravens are 1-6 SU against the Pats. The Pats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 post-bye games.

My Pick: Pats -2.5. New England wins 17-14.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

This one seems obvious to me...Kolb beat the 49ers, but they're 0-5 and have been beating themselves. He's not going to be able to do much against a top-10 defense with check downs. He'll have to go down the field, and I don't think he has the stones to do it. I'm also not sure how effective the Eagles' D will be against Ryan and Turner. My guess? Not very.

Trends: The Falcons are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 against Philly. The Under is 9-1 in these teams' last 10 meetings.

My Pick: Falcons +3. Atlanta wins outright 16-10.

NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 41.5

I'm not going to waste much time on this one...Denver's not good, the Jets are. The thin air shouldn't affect the Jets enough to let Denver win. And if I'm wrong, I'll just blame it on the fact that I'm rarely able to correctly pick Broncos games.

Trends: The Jets are 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Broncos have played 5 straight October home Unders.

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ sAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -6.5

O/U: 41.5

The Raiders always play worse against their lesser opponents. At 0-5, San Fran fits into that category. It's time for San Francisco to step up and win a freaking game. Let's put it this way - If San Fran loses to the Raiders AT HOME, I will assume they are an 0-16 team in the making and will pick against them, at least straight up, for the rest of the season.

Trends: The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October road games. These teams' past 3 meetings in San Fran have all been played Over.

My Pick: 49ers -6.5. San Francisco needs a win. They get it 24-13.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44.5

The Vikings have had the Cowboys' number lately. Both teams are struggling, but somehow Dallas' offense is still #2 in the league and their defense is #8. And they're 1-3. Go figure. Minnesota's defense is #2 in the league, but their offense is #18, which makes a little more sense. One of these teams will be 1-4, and the community that supports that team will be outraged. They should have both been Super Bowl contenders. Minnesota is losing because Favre isn't healthy. Dallas is losing because it seems as though they have no heart. I'll take the team that's trying over the team with no heart any day.

Trends: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against Dallas. The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 October road games.

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota gets win #2, 24-20.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Colts -3

O/U: 44

Washington surprised me last week, but I still don't think they're as good as their record reflects. They have only lost twice, but one loss was to the Rams, and it looked ugly the whole way through. Their last two wins each held a special significance, one due to McNabb's Philly return, the other due to Albert Haynesworth's brother's death. The show of team support for Albert will make him that much better of a teammate from this point forward, but I don't know if his improved play will result in another win over an elite team. Indy's D has been quetionable against the run, but the Skins have no real running game to speak of. Plus Peyton and the offense didn't have much success last week against the Chiefs, and I expect them to come alive this week.

Trends: These teams have played Over in 6 of their last 7 matchups. The Skins are 0-6 in their last 6 October home games.

My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-13.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 45

Can the Jags win 3 straight? Could the Rams? Answer...NO. Tennessee is a solid team, and CJ is craving some carries. He'll get them, and will run all over Jacksonville.

Trends: The Under is 7-2 in the Titans' last 9 within the AFC South. The Jags are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 October home games.

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-10.

Byes: ARI, BUF, CAR, CIN

NFL Week Five Recap

Week Five Picks: 8-6

Week Five ATS: 10-4

Overall Picks: 47-29

Overall ATS: 41-32-3

Run Over

CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bears -2.5

O/U: 35.5

My Pick: Panthers +2.5. Carolina wins outright

Result: Bears 23-6

Ok, ok, I was way off. I had no idea Carolina wouldn't even TRY to stop the run. Chicago looks more and more legit with every win...with Minnesota falling further back each week, Chicago's playoff chances go up.

Best in the South?

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 24-19.

Result: Falcons 20-10

I was pretty close on how this would shape up. Cleveland has been playing hard, and could surprise a few more teams this season. With the win, Atlanta is behind only TB in the NFC South, and it's all but guaranteed that the Bucs will fall off soon. With the Reggie-less Saints struggling, are the Falcons the best in the South? I don't see how you can argue against it.

Surprise! It's the Giants.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Giants +3. I have no idea why, but I have a gut feeling on this one. NY wins 23-20.

Result: Giants 34-10

I wasn't sure why, but I had a feeling that the Giants would show up this week. They did, and in impressing fashion.

Packing it in?

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 27-10.

Result: Skins 16-13

What? I guess the Skins are one of those teams that wins the tough ones and loses the easy ones. This is a team that blew a 17-point lead with :01 left in the 3rd quarter against Houston and was beaten thoroughly by the Rams. THE RAMS. And now they come out and beat "everyone's" (not mine...) Super Bowl pick?

It's also possible that Washington is one of those teams that steps up when they have the motivation to do so. They beat Philly in McNabb's return to the city of brotherly love (despite McNabb being average at best) and defeated the Packers while Albert Haynesworth was away griveing with his family, with McNabb noting in the pre-game that "this game's for Albert".

I got one right!

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: 0

O/U: 41

My Pick: Jaguars Pk. Jacksonville wins a shootout, 17-13.

Result: Jags 36-26

The irony of my sarcasm is not lost on me. I joked that it would be a shootout, given that neither team has much of an offensive attack. And then it actually was a shootout, with the teams dousing the Over by 3 touchdowns. But at least I got a Bills game right! Too bad they're still winless...could they pull off 0-16? I would laugh so hard...

The Bengals have the Ravens' number; The Bucs have theirs

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -6

O/U: 38

My Pick: Bucs +6. Cincy wins 23-20.

Result: Bucs 24-21

The Bucs have now beaten the Bengals in 6 straight games. Not good if you're a Cincy fan. What can you make of these teams? At the end of the season, I still expect the Bengals to be close, but likely a win out of, the playoffs, and I expect Tampa to be thinking about golf by December - Yet the Bengals just lost to the 3-1 Bucs, a week after falling to the then-winless Browns. Gotta love Parity.

Hey, they were playing well...

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Lions -3. Detroit has been playing too well to blow a gimme. Lions 27-10.

Result: Lions 44-6

This game illustrates the dynamics of the lower end of the NFL. The Rams aren't great, but got two wins over streaky middle-to-lower-tier opponents. The Lions have played a tough schedule, but have played all of their opponents quite well. So I'm really not that surprised that the Lions are 38 points better than the Rams.

The Last Undefeated Falls

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 45

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-13.

Result: Colts 19-9

I was right, but Indy certainly didn't "roll". Kansas City showed that they can play with the league's elite teams, and with the Chargers struggling (and already having lost to the Chiefs head-to-head), Kansas City might have a shot at postseason play. They're no Super Bowl contender, but 9-7 could win the AFC West.

I got the Denver AND Buffalo games right this week? Satan must be freezing.

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -7

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 24-14.

Result: Ravens 31-17

I'm still on the Ravens' Super Bowl bandwagon. They already beat their main challenger for the crown - the jets - so who is going to stand in their way?

Of COURSE the Cards won...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans finally gets a blowout win, 38-14.

Result: Cards 30-20

I have no idea how this happened. Had the entire Saints team been replaced by 90 year old nuns I still would have picked them to win by 7. Arizona is downright bad. I'm not sure what went down in the desert, but I don't expect it to continue. The Saints aren't that bad, and the Cards certainly aren't that good.

Same Ol Cowboys

TENNESSEE TITANS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -7

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Titans +7. Dallas wins 23-17.

Result: Titans 34-27

I wasn't sure how the Cowboys would come out of their bye week, but this game certainly proved a point. Dallas is going to continue to underachieve, and will likely miss the playoffs. The NFC North and South are too good this year not to have two wild card teams among them. Believe it or not, the vaunted NFC East is having a down year. And the Cowboys are the main reason.

HAHAHAHA

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Chargers -6

O/U: 45

My Pick: Raiders +6. I've been picking the Raiders far too much this season. I must be a masochist. Chargers still win 20-17.

Result: Raiders 35-27

Those West Coast teams sure are strange! Seattle and San Diego each seem to alternate between horrendous and unstoppable every week. Yes, I picked the Raiders to cover, but I didn't actually think they'd win! Come on Chargers - Have some dignity.

Still Winless

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 38

My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins outright 24-13.

Result: Eagles 27-24

Yet another streaky West Coast team - but unlike the previous two, San Fran alternates between respectable and useless. I guess this one counts as respectable, since the Eagles are a decent team. Too bad the 49ers are still 0-5 despite being picked to win their division!

Stupid Favre and his Stupid Late Interceptions

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -4

O/U: 39

My Pick: Vikings +4. Jets win 20-17.

Result: Jets 29-20

I should have been dead-on with this pick, but Favre decided to throw a late pick-six to allow the Jets to beat the spread. Now the Vikes are 1-3 and in danger of falling too far behind in the NFC North to catch up.

NFL Week Five Preview

CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bears -2.5

O/U: 35.5

The Bears will be better than they were last week, especially along the offensive line. But without Cutler, I don't think their offense will get it done. There's a reason Todd Collins had no interceptions between 1997 and last week...HE'S BEEN ON THE BENCH! Carolina has been playing hard and is due for a win. The Bears will come out with intensity following last week's loss, but so will the Panthers.

Trends: The Under is 14-3 in the last 17 Bears October road games. Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Panthers +2.5. Carolina wins outright

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 40.5

Atlanta is a legitimiately good team. Cleveland has been playing hard, and they deserved a win last week. But the Falcons can beat you in a lot of different ways.

Trends: Atlanta lost both prior meetings SU & ATS. The Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 October games.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 24-19.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 47.5

The Giants D-line really stepped up against the Bears, but the offense didn't look very good. The run game is a question mark, as Brandon Jacobs has lost the team's confidence and Bradshaw's ankle isn't 100% (even though he says it is). I don't think the defense will be able to stop the multiple weapons the Texans possess, though I'm not sure how dynamic Houston's offense will be if Andre Johnson isn't healthy enough to play. I'm also worried that Houston will fall back into the 8-8 or 9-7 groove at some point, but am not sure when the collapse will happen.

Trends: The Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 October road games. The Texans covered both prior meetings against NY.

My Pick: Giants +3. I have no idea why, but I have a gut feeling on this one. NY wins 23-20.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 44

This one shouldn't even be a contest. The Skins played OK last week, but really haven't impressed me as much as I had hoped. Green Bay stumbled a little against the Lions, but they still got the W. It's not going to be easy to beat a solid Skins' D without Ryan Grant, but I think they'll score plenty of points to keep Washington out of reach.

Trends: The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS against the Skins since 1986. Five of these teams' past 6 meetings were played Under.

My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 27-10.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: 0

O/U: 41

YAY! Finally a Bills game where they can't possibly screw me over. As long as I take the Jags to win, the Bills will either verify my pick or they'll win the game - either way, I'm happy. Of note: Trent Edwards was picked up by the Jags. So I full expect Jacksonville to know every play Buffalo has in their playbook. Edwards had to be pissed after getting released by Buffalo and will be the main reason the Jags win (even if he doesn't see a single snap).

Trends: The Jags are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against Buffalo. The Bills Under is 6-2 in their last 8 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Jaguars Pk. Jacksonville wins a shootout, 17-13.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -6

O/U: 38

I'm tempted to think that the Bengals will come off of their loss with newfound vigor, but they really haven't blown anyone out all season. Plus TO and Ochocinco are distracted with their new TV show on Versus...who thought that was a good idea in-season? Tampa is 2-1 and has looked pretty solid. Coming off a bye week, I expect them to have gameplanned for everything the Bengals can throw at them. In the end, I think the odds that the Bengals put on an offensive clinic are lower than the odds that Tampa plays them strong coming off the bye week.

Trends: Tampa is 6-2 in their last 8 games coming off a bye. The Bengals have lost 5 in a row SU against TB.

My Pick: Bucs +6. Cincy wins 23-20.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -3

O/U: 42.5

Detroit has been playing very well, and really deserves to win a game. St. Louis has won two in a row...it's highly unlikely that they'll make it 3.

Trends: The Rams Under is 4-1 in their last 5 on the road against NFC North opponents. The Lions are 1-7-1 ATS, 0-9 SU in their last 9 against the NFC West.

My Pick: Lions -3. Detroit has been playing too well to blow a gimme. Lions 27-10.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 45

I can't believe the Chiefs are the NFL's last unbeaten team! Good to see that they won't have the chance to blow their undefeated record against a lesser opponent. The Colts will be focused coming off a loss, and have the talent to crush the upstart Chiefs.

Trends: The Chiefs Over is 6-1 in their last 7 games after a bye. Indy is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against KC since 1990.

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-13.

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -7

O/U: 38.5

The Ravens are by far the better team. And they're playing at home against a Denver team that may be overconfident after a big win last week in Tennessee. They also have to travel a long way for the second week in a row. Then again, they're the Broncos, so they'll probably win just to piss me off.

Trends: The Broncos have lost 4 in a row SU and ATS against Baltimore. 6 of these teams' past 7 meetings have been played Under.

My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 24-14.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 45

New Orleans hasn't been blowing teams out this season, but if there were ever a team they could change that trend against, it's Arizona. They've been blown out by every strong team they've played.

Trends: The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Arizona. The Cards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye games.

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans finally gets a blowout win, 38-14.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -7

O/U: 41.5

Will we see the Cowboys from weeks 1 and 2 or the Cowboys from week 3? I think their bye week gave them a chance to reflect a bit, and when the Cowboys think too much they tend to get in their own way. Tennessee is going to be motivated after a bad loss to Denver, and I think they can keep this game within a touchdown. And god help me, Dallas, if you play like crap again I will come to your house and I will cut you. I hate you, but I can't stand to see a team that should be good playing like idiots.

Trends: The road team has covered in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye.

My Pick: Titans +7. Dallas wins 23-17.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Chargers -6

O/U: 45

I expect Oakland to beat the spread against a team they shouldn't at least twice this season, and this may be their first chance. San Diego has been up and down thus far, and has actually LOST to KC and Seattle on the road. Last week they won big at home, so it naturally follows that they'd stumble this week on the road.

Trends: The Chargers have won 13 straight SU against Oakland. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home against San Diego.

My Pick: Raiders +6. I've been picking the Raiders far too much this season. I must be a masochist. Chargers still win 20-17.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 38

I guess the oddsmakers have no confidence in Kolb either! San Francisco is due for a win, but I don't know if it will be this week. They've been up and down like the Chargers, but have lost all 4 games. They play better teams close and get blown out by lesser teams. I think they'll underestimate Kolb and blow another one.

Trends: The Eagles have won and covered 4 in a row against SF. 5 of the teams' past 6 meetings have been played Over.

My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins outright 24-13.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -4

O/U: 39

Does anyone else think it's hilarious that "Slouch" got himself traded directly into another matchup against Revis? Darrelle isn't guaranteed to play, but with Moss coming back to town I'm sure he'll be on the field. I think Minnesota has a good chance to win, especially given their record (not good - so they're motivated) and the extra week they've had to gameplan for the Jets. If they do win, I think they'll do it with defense. By that I mean that I think the Vikings defense will score a touchdown and change the complexion of the game. Moss and Favre won't be on the same page yet, though, so don't expect Moss' addition to be a major factor.

Trends: The Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Post-bye games. The Jets are 5-0 against the Vikes since 1982.

My Pick: Vikings +4. Jets win 20-17.

BYES: MIA, NE, PIT, SEA

NFL Week Four Recap

Week Four Picks: 10-4

Week Four ATS: 9-5

Overall Picks: 39-23

Overall ATS: 31-28-3

Too Close?

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line:Saints -13.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Panthers +13.5. New Orleans wins 23-13.

Result: Saints 16-14

New Orleans isn't blowing people out this year, but they sure do seem to know how to win. They're only going to get better when the defense finally starts to force turnovers (like it did last year). And their tailbacks can't stay injured forever! Carolina has a lot of fight in them - their next few opponents better be careful, because this is a team that won't be winless much longer.

Ram Job

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Seahawks -1

O/U: 40

My Pick: Seahawks -1. Seattle wins 17-13.

Result: Rams 20-3

I can't even pretend to understand this. They're like a completely different team on the road. It's unreal.

God They're Bad...

NEW YORK JETS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Jets -5

O/U: 36.5

My Pick: Bills +5. New York wins 14-13.

Result: Jets 38-14

JC was right - no matter what I think the Bills will do, they find a way to do the opposite.

Best 0-4 Team Ever

DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -14.5

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Lions +14.5. Green Bay wins 27-13.

Result: Packers 28-26

Ok, so best ever might be an overstatement, but the Lions have competed awfully well for an 0-4 team. They "beat" the 3-1 Bears, barely lost to the 3-1 Pack, had a huge comeback fall 3 points short against 2-2 Philly, and hung in there against a Vikings team that was 0-2 at the time and desperate for a win. And most of that was done without their star QB Matt Stafford, who has been hurt since week 1. They'll get a win soon.

AFC Championship Preview?

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -1

O/U: 34.5

My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 17-13.

Result: Ravens 17-14

I was dead-on with this pick. Both of these teams are very solid, and could very well make deep postseason runs. Anybody suiting up against the Ravens or Steelers is going to have a fight on their hands - and most teams will lose that fight.

I Hate Denver

DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -6.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee wins 31-20.

Result: Broncos 26-20

Much like the Bills, the Broncos refuse to cooperate with my picks. This week I really should have gone against my gut and taken them against the spread. I should just refuse to pick the Bills and Broncos and start each week at 0-2...it would be less stressful.

It's good!

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -7

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: 49ers +7. Atlanta still wins 23-21.

Result: Falcons 16-14

Another excellent pick by yours truly. San Fran can compete against the better teams, but can't seem to do anything against their lesser opponents. At 0-4, things look bleak. But the rest of their division is 2-2, so they still have a very realistic chance to fulfill the prophecy and win the West. They just need to pull their heads out of their bums and win some games.

When ESPN says it's a Lock, I need to learn to listen

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Bengals -3

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-13.

Result: Browns 23-20

ESPN analysts were picking the Browns left and right last week, discussing their hard play and the notion that they'd win very soon. I just didn't see how the Bengals, who recently defeated a very good Ravens team, could lose to the lowly Browns. Now I do.

The Jags have someone's number...

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 46

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-17.

Result: Jags 31-28

How the Jags can beat a good team baffles me. They found a way to score points on an injury-plagued defense (Bob Sanders' injury alone counts as a plague), and somehow eeked out a win. The Colts always seem to have trouble with Jacksonville, for whatever reason. Don't let one result fool you - The Jags are bad, the Colts are good. Indy will figure things out.

The Raiders are Still Awful

HOUSTON TEXANS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-20.

Result: Texans 31-24

Wait, you're telling me Bruce Gradkowski just isn't getting the job done? I'm shocked. Oakland is a miserable franchise. Until Al Davis dies, they won't win 7 games in a season.

McNabb's Revenge

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -5.5

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Redskins +5.5. Washington wins outright 23-17.

Result: Skins 17-12

It wasn't pretty, but McNabb's teammates backed him up and helped him to silence the city of Philadelphia. Or at least to divert their attention to baseball for a few weeks now that the Eagles are back in the hands of Kevin "corn-on-the" Kolb.

Finally a Team I can Pick!

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls 34-14.

Result: Chargers 41-10

Arizona is helping me out - they beat the bad teams and get blown out by the good ones. They're a middle of the pack team that does what everyone expects them to do. Nice to have a team that can offset the pounding the Bills and Broncos give me every week.

Jay Cutler is a Prostitute

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -3.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Giants -3.5. New York wins 27-21.

Result: Giants 17-3

He gets paid an ungodly amount of money to lie flat on his back - how else do you explain his profession? I hate that Doug Gottlieb thought this was an awful game that wasn't worth watching. The Bears O-line was awful, but the Giants' D was stellar. They won almost every 1-on-1 line battle, and sacked Cutler NINE times. I found it quite entertaining.

How good are the Pats?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Pats -1

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Pats -1. New England wins 31-28.

Result: 41-14

It's amazing that the Pats were down 7-6 at the half. Now that they've discarded Moss, I don't know if the Pats are as dangerous. He was the reason the smaller guys were open so frequently. We'll have to see how Brady handles the new coverages he'll see. Their defense isn't particularly outstanding either - they're young and don't strike fear into opponents like the Steelers' and Ravens' Defenses. They could be good, but I see them as the type of team that plays one outstanding half and falters in the other - which could come back to bite them.