SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 45
San Diego has been predictably inconsistent thus far - a loss last week to an inferior opponent means that they'll win big this week. They also have the #1 offense in the NFL, statistically, and the Rams defense is in the league's bottom third in all statistical categories.
Trends: The Chargers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 October road games. All 6 meetings between these teams since 1988 have been played Over.
My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls the Rams 38-20.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -6
O/U: 37.5
Seattle is another predictable team - at home they win, on the road they get blown out. The Chicago D should be able to handle the Seahawks lackluster offense, and if the Bears can beat the desperate Panthers without Cutler, they can sure as hell beat the Rams with him.
Trends: The Seahawks have played 10 straight Overs after a bye. Six of the last 7 Bears October home games have been played Over.
My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago wins 31-10.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 45
At some point this season the Chiefs have to get blown out. They're not a bad team, but the offense hasn't played well enough to win a shootout, and I just don't see that defense playing superb every single week. After a rough home loss to the Giants, the Texans are out to show that they're a contender. The Texans are banged up, but I think they'll still put a hurting on the Chiefs.
Trends: The road team has covered 4 of the past 5 meetings in this series. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Texans -4.5. Houston 37-22.
DETROIT LIONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -10
O/U: 44.5
After a big win over the Rams, I'm concerned that Detroit will come into this game with the wrong mindset. If that's the case, they could lose big. But so far this season Detroit has played every opponent close. New York is now being thought of in an overly high regard after dominating the Texans, and the Giants have always been the type of team that plays better when the odds are stacked against them. Once they get big heads, they screw up.
Trends: The Lions have lost 6 straight ATS headed into a bye week. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home matchups against the Lions.
My Pick: Lions +10. Giants win 27-20.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -13.5
O/U: 37.5
This is an oversized spread. McCoy is starting for the first time, and couldn't have picked a worse defense to try to compete against in his first NFL game. The Steelers, however, come out with Roethlisberger playing his first game of the season. I don't expect him to be 100% ready, and I think Mike Tomlin, being the pragmatist that he is, will settle for a run-oriented offense (that's Steeler football anyway) rather than fully taking the reigns off of Ben. He may have one of two shots down the field, but barring a ton of Browns turnovers, I expect this to be a clsoe, low-scoring, defensive game.
Trends: The Browns are 1-4 SU 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Pittsburgh. The Over is 6-1-1 in the teams' last 8 meetings in the Steel City.
My Pick: Browns +13.5. Pittsburgh wins 20-9.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Saints -4
O/U: 43.5
I know the NFC South has a lot of parity. I know the Bucs have been playing well. I know the last place one year generally becomes the first place team the next. But the talent level and experience of the Saints, even with injuries, ought to shine through enough to keep them from falling to .500.
Trends: The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips to Tampa. The Bucs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 October home games.
My Pick: Saints -4. New Orleans gets the W, 27-17.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 45.5
The Packers seem to be injury plagued every year. Let me be the first (that I know of) to coin this term: The Favre Curse. We'll see if they can overcome their problems against the Fins, but the holes on defense may be exploited against a balanced Dolphin attack (assuming Henne shows up...), and Rodgers isn't at 100%. Even if he were healthy, he's missing one of his favorite targets, Jermichael Finley. The Packers were a top preseason pick, but as I expected, they've stumbled. That said, the Dolphins are a warm-weather team playing at Lambeau field, so the logical answer may not be the correct one.
Trends: The Dolphins are 1-10 SU in their last 11 October road games. The Packers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 against the AFC East.
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 17-13.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Patriots -2.5
O/U: 45
Both of these teams are solid, and the change from Moss to Branch shouldn't affect the Pats' offensive rhythm too much. Flacco and the Ravens are more than capable of scoring points, too...so this one comes down to the defense. The Ravens' defense versus the Pats' defense...ok, so that matchup is obvious. Special teams leans toward the Pats. The X factors? Belichik has had 2 weeks to prepare, and the Ravens are 1 for 7 against the Pats in team history.
Trends: The Ravens are 1-6 SU against the Pats. The Pats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 post-bye games.
My Pick: Pats -2.5. New England wins 17-14.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 42.5
This one seems obvious to me...Kolb beat the 49ers, but they're 0-5 and have been beating themselves. He's not going to be able to do much against a top-10 defense with check downs. He'll have to go down the field, and I don't think he has the stones to do it. I'm also not sure how effective the Eagles' D will be against Ryan and Turner. My guess? Not very.
Trends: The Falcons are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 against Philly. The Under is 9-1 in these teams' last 10 meetings.
My Pick: Falcons +3. Atlanta wins outright 16-10.
NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41.5
I'm not going to waste much time on this one...Denver's not good, the Jets are. The thin air shouldn't affect the Jets enough to let Denver win. And if I'm wrong, I'll just blame it on the fact that I'm rarely able to correctly pick Broncos games.
Trends: The Jets are 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Broncos have played 5 straight October home Unders.
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-13.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ sAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -6.5
O/U: 41.5
The Raiders always play worse against their lesser opponents. At 0-5, San Fran fits into that category. It's time for San Francisco to step up and win a freaking game. Let's put it this way - If San Fran loses to the Raiders AT HOME, I will assume they are an 0-16 team in the making and will pick against them, at least straight up, for the rest of the season.
Trends: The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October road games. These teams' past 3 meetings in San Fran have all been played Over.
My Pick: 49ers -6.5. San Francisco needs a win. They get it 24-13.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -1.5
O/U: 44.5
The Vikings have had the Cowboys' number lately. Both teams are struggling, but somehow Dallas' offense is still #2 in the league and their defense is #8. And they're 1-3. Go figure. Minnesota's defense is #2 in the league, but their offense is #18, which makes a little more sense. One of these teams will be 1-4, and the community that supports that team will be outraged. They should have both been Super Bowl contenders. Minnesota is losing because Favre isn't healthy. Dallas is losing because it seems as though they have no heart. I'll take the team that's trying over the team with no heart any day.
Trends: The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against Dallas. The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 October road games.
My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota gets win #2, 24-20.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 44
Washington surprised me last week, but I still don't think they're as good as their record reflects. They have only lost twice, but one loss was to the Rams, and it looked ugly the whole way through. Their last two wins each held a special significance, one due to McNabb's Philly return, the other due to Albert Haynesworth's brother's death. The show of team support for Albert will make him that much better of a teammate from this point forward, but I don't know if his improved play will result in another win over an elite team. Indy's D has been quetionable against the run, but the Skins have no real running game to speak of. Plus Peyton and the offense didn't have much success last week against the Chiefs, and I expect them to come alive this week.
Trends: These teams have played Over in 6 of their last 7 matchups. The Skins are 0-6 in their last 6 October home games.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-13.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
Can the Jags win 3 straight? Could the Rams? Answer...NO. Tennessee is a solid team, and CJ is craving some carries. He'll get them, and will run all over Jacksonville.
Trends: The Under is 7-2 in the Titans' last 9 within the AFC South. The Jags are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 October home games.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-10.
Byes: ARI, BUF, CAR, CIN
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