NFL Week Thirteen Preview

CHI @ DET

DET -7

47.5

Apparently Chicago hasn’t completely packed it in. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Lions have Calvin Johnson. The Lions have covered 7 of 10 against the Bears and 4 of their last 5 at home. Chicago has only covered 1 of 6 within the division and has played 5 of 7 Thanksgiving games Over.

Pick: DET -7. Lions win 27-10 (Under)

PHI @ DAL

DAL -3

55.5

The Eagles’ secondary is one of the worst in the league, but Dallas’ isn’t significantly better. Though these stats would suggest a shootout, I’ll bet this goes Under. When two much-maligned defenses see the opposing offense getting all of the press leading up to a game, they tend to step it up. It’s not always the case, but it happens frequently enough to be worth betting the Under. I’ll pick Dallas at home simply because I don’t 100% trust Sanchez in a pressure-packed Thanksgiving game in front of a National audience. Dallas has only covered 3 of 10 at home, but the Eagles have only covered 2 of 7 on the road.

Pick: DAL -3. Cowboys win 27-23 (Under)

SEA @ SF

SF -1.5

40

San Francisco needs this win more than the Seahawks, but the 49ers have been terrible at home. Seattle is getting its groove back defensively at just the right time. Expect a tight, low-scoring game. Seattle has only covered 4 of their last 11 on the road and just 1 of 3 Thanksgiving games. San Francisco has covered 6 of 9 home games against the Seahawks and has played 6 of 7 Thursday games Under.

Pick: SEA +1.5. Seahawks win 17-13 (Under)

WAS @ IND

IND -9.5

51

I expect Kirk Cousins to perform well, especially against a somewhat porous Indy defense. Indy should win, but I expect it to stay close. Especially considering the fact that Indy has only covered 1 of 6 against the Skins.

Pick: WAS +9.5. Colts win 27-23 (Under)

TEN @ HOU

HOU -6

42.5

Tennessee has been awful. It’s tough to pick them to beat the Texans, even after Mallett was sidelined. Fitzpatrick began the season as the starter, so I doubt he’ll have any growing pains. It’s hard to blow out a team twice in one season, but I expect the Texans to win by a touchdown despite having covered only 3 of 10 home games. After all, the Titans have only covered 1 of 7 against Houston and 2 of 13 within the division.

Pick: HOU -6. Texans win 23-14 (Under)

CLE @ BUF

BUF -3

41

I’m not incredibly high on the Browns and I Billieve the Bills will step it up in front of their home fans after having to play last week’s “home” game in Detroit. Most of the stats tell me I’m crazy (BUF 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and last 5 against a +.500 team, Cleveland 4-2 SU last 6 v BUF), but crazy happens all the time in the NFL.

Pick: BUF -3. Bills win 27-21 (Over)

SD @ BAL

BAL -6

45.5

I think the Chargers will keep this game within reach, but the Ravens are awfully good at home.

Pick: SD +6. Ravens win 17-14 (Under)

NYG @ JAX

NYG -3

44.5

This is the type of game Jacksonville can win. Disrespected as a home underdog against a team with some major concerns, I’ll bet the Jags show up strong. Their defense line will be all over Eli and he’ll turn the ball over at least twice. Unfortunately I still don’t trust Jacksonville’s offense, so they’ll probably end up losing.

Pick: NYG -3. Giants win 28-17 (Over)

CIN @ TB

CIN -3.5

44.5

It seems as though the Bengals are “back”. They’ve played very well through the past few weeks, including on the road in New Orleans and Houston. That said, this is their third straight road game. It’s tough to win 3 straight away from your own building. Plus the Bucs have been playing well are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 against Cincy.

Pick: TB +3.5. Bucs win 20-17 (Under)

OAK @ STL

STL -7

42

The Raiders have renewed confidence after last week’s win, plus they get a few extra days of rest. I think the Rams will win, but the Raiders should make it interesting.

Pick: OAK +7. Rams win 24-23 (Over)

NO @ PIT

PIT -4.5

53.5

New Orleans desperately needs wins, and I still don’t think the Steelers are “that” good. Then again, the Saints have showed me no reason to have faith in them and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Steelers.

Pick: NO +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-21 (Under)

CAR @ MIN

MIN -3

43

Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a streak of 2+ losses and they’ve done a good job winning games against lesser opposition this season. They’re also decent at home, while Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. That said, Carolina has to win a couple more games, right? They should be better than they’ve shown. If they’re going to get one or two more wins, this has to be one of them.

Pick: CAR +3. Panthers win 16-10 (Under)

ARI @ ATL

ARI -2.5

44.5

Arizona has historically been shaky when traveling to the east coast, and Atlanta is a much better team at home. Plus the Falcons have won 5 straight home games against the Cards. Though the teams’ records may not suggest this outcome, I expect the Falcons to get a much-needed home win to stay on top of the NFC South.

Pick: ATL +2.5. Falcons win 27-24 (Over)

NE @ GB

GB -3

58

This Total completely disrespects both defenses…but I can’t say it’s wrong. Brady and Rodgers are likely to have an epic duel. Green Bay has been incredible at home, but the Patriots have a better shot at slowing down Green Bay’s offense than vice versa. In big games I hesitate to pick against Brady and Belichick. Even though the Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Pats, only 3 of those games have been in the last 12 years and the Pats won 2 of them (1-2 ATS).  

Pick: NE +3. Patriots win 35-31 (Over)

DEN @ KC

DEN -2

49.5

I’m tempted to pick the Chiefs, as they return to the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium looking for retribution after last week’s loss to the Raiders. Denver is missing its top two running backs and may or may not have Julius Thomas at 100%. That said, they still have Peyton Manning. And their rush defense is #2 in the NFL. If this turns into a Peyton Manning v. Alex Smith competition, Manning is the obvious choice.  

Pick: DEN -2. Broncos win 27-20 (Under)

MIA @ NYJ

MIA -7

42

While the Jets seem to have given up, 7 is an awfully big spread for a middle-of-the-pack team to cover on the road. New York responded reasonably well after their blowout loss to the Bill a few weeks ago. Expect them to respond well after last week’s blowout loss to the Bills as well.

Pick: NYJ +7. Miami wins 21-19 (Under)

NFL Week Twelve Recap

Week Twelve

ATS: 6-9

Straight Up: 10-5

Over/Under: 9-6

Overall

ATS: 90-83-3
Straight Up: 103-72-1
Over/Under: 84-90-2

KC @ OAK

KC -7

42

Pick: KC -7. Chiefs win 27-6 (Under)

Result: OAK 24-20 (Over)

NYJ @ BUF

BUF -3

39

Pick: NYJ +3. Jets win 24-19 (Over)

Result: BUF 38-3 (Over)

CLE @ ATL

ATL -3

47

Pick: ATL -3. Falcons win 34-24 (Over)

Result: CLE 26-24 (Over)

TEN @ PHI

PHI -11

49

Pick: PHI -11. Eagles win 45-17 (Over)

Result: PHI 43-24 (Over)

DET @ NE

NE -7

48

Pick: DET +7. New England wins 20-16 (Under)

Result: NE 34-9 (Under)

GB @ MIN

GB -9.5

48.5

Pick: GB -9.5. Packers roll again, 41-14 (Over)

Result: GB 24-21 (Under)

JAX @ IND

IND -14

50.5

Pick: JAX +14. Indy wins 27-17 (Under)

Result: IND 23-3 (Under)

CIN @ HOU

HOU -2.5

43.5

Pick: CIN +2.5. Bengals win 24-13 (Under)

Result: CIN 22-13 (Under)

TB @ CHI

CHI -6

46

Pick: TB +6. Bears win 27-24 (Over)

Result: CHI 21-13 (Under)

ARI @ SEA

SEA -7

44.5

Pick: SEA -7. Seahawks win 23-10 (Under)

Result: SEA 19-3 (Under)

STL @ SD

SD -5

43

Pick: STL +5. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

Result: SD 27-24 (Over)

MIA @ DEN

DEN -7

48

Pick: DEN -7. Broncos 31-14 (Under)

Result: DEN 39-36 (Over)

WAS @ SF

SF -9

44

Pick: WAS +9. 49ers win 21-17 (Under)

Result: SF 17-13 (Under)

DAL @ NYG

DAL -3

47.5

Pick: NYG +3. Giants win 24-23 (Under)

Result: DAL 31-28 (Over)

BAL @ NO

NO -3

50

Pick: NO -3. Saints win 34-28 (Over)

Result: BAL 31-27 (Over)

BYES: PIT, CAR

NFL Week Twelve Preview

KC @ OAK

KC -7

42

Oakland just kept it close against the Chargers, so you’d figure they’d also play tough against the Chiefs. Then again, Thursday night games have been mostly blowouts this season and it’s much more likely that the Chiefs will blow out the Raiders than vice versa.

Pick: KC -7. Chiefs win 27-6 (Under)

NYJ @ BUF

BUF -3

39

It’s rare for one mediocre team to sweep another in NFL divisional play. The Jets were embarrassed by the Bills a few weeks ago; I doubt they’ve forgotten about it. Plus Buffalo hasn’t practiced all week because of the snow and doesn’t get a true home field advantage, regardless of where the game ends up being played.   

Pick: NYJ +3. Jets win 24-19 (Over)

CLE @ ATL

ATL -3

47

I expect the Falcons to play well at home, especially knowing they’re in front of the NFC South and still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs despite a few horrible performances. Plus the Browns defense is banged up and isn’t playing as well as it was early in the season.

Pick: ATL -3. Falcons win 34-24 (Over)

TEN @ PHI

PHI -11

49

Philly is due for a bounce-back performance. I have no idea why I have faith in Sanchez…but I definitely have no faith in the Titans’ ability to stop the Eagles’ speed offensively.

Pick: PHI -11. Eagles win 45-17 (Over)

DET @ NE

NE -7

48

This is an interesting matchup. Detroit’s defense is one of the best in the league; can it cause Brady problems? Will Revis Island shut down Calvin Johnson, rendering the Lions’ offense ineffective? I actually think both are true; the only safe bet is the Under.

Pick: DET +7. New England wins 20-16 (Under)

GB @ MIN

GB -9.5

48.5

I didn’t think I’d pick the Packers to pull a third-straight blowout, but Minnesota isn’t very good. I refuse to underestimate Aaron Rodgers until he gives me reason to, although I recognize the danger in picking a road team to cover 9 ½ points on the road while riding high after 2 straight blowout wins.

Pick: GB -9.5. Packers roll again, 41-14 (Over)

JAX @ IND

IND -14

50.5

It’s tough enough to beat an NFL-caliber team twice in one season, let alone blow them out both times. This game should be closer than the first, especially with Bradshaw out and Jacksonville coming off a bye week.

Pick: JAX +14. Indy wins 27-17 (Under)

CIN @ HOU

HOU -2.5

43.5

Cincinnati played great on the road last week and will be getting Giovanni Bernard back in Houston. I love Ryan Mallett, but I think the Bengals are a clear playoff team and the Texans simply aren’t. Keep in mind, though, that Cincy has failed to cover 5 straight spreads against the Texans and Houston has covered 4 straight as a favorite.

Pick: CIN +2.5. Bengals win 24-13 (Under)

TB @ CHI

CHI -6

46

Chicago is still terrible at home, plus Josh McCown will likely perform well in front of his old home crowd. That said, I don’t foresee Tampa’s defense shutting down Marshall and Jeffery.

Pick: TB +6. Bears win 27-24 (Over)

ARI @ SEA

SEA -7

44.5

The Seahawks don’t lose at home. Plus they’re pissed about last week’s loss. Plus Arizona is due for a lackluster performance. Plus hell will freeze over if Arizona moves to 10-1.

Pick: SEA -7. Seahawks win 23-10 (Under)

STL @ SD

SD -5

43

Whatever they did to Peyton Manning should work against Philip Rivers, too. The Rams play extremely hard and are very well coached. This should be a close game, but I’ll take the Chargers to win simply because the Rams are better at home.

Pick: STL +5. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

MIA @ DEN

DEN -7

48

I don’t know what happened to the Broncos last week, but unless it becomes a trend I’m sticking with Peyton and his high-scoring attack. Of course, if Thomas and Sanders end up missing the game due to their injuries, Miami could keep it low-scoring.

Pick: DEN -7. Broncos 31-14 (Under)

WAS @ SF

SF -9

44

Yeah right. San Francisco is terrible at home. There’s no way I’m spotting them 9.

Pick: WAS +9. 49ers win 21-17 (Under)

DAL @ NYG

DAL -3

47.5

I should pick the Cowboys, especially after their bye week. That said, they beat the Giants once already this season, and a split is much more likely. I still don’t 100% trust the Cowboys, and as bad as the Giants have been, I expect them to play well as a home underdog against a hated rival.

Pick: NYG +3. Giants win 24-23 (Under)

BAL @ NO

NO -3

50

I really don’t trust New Orleans yet, but they should play hard after losing at home, especially knowing that their division title is still within reach. Somebody from the NFC South will probably make the playoffs at 9-7 or 8-8, so all the Saints have to do is suck slightly less than the rest of the division. Since they’re bad on the road, they better win at home when they have the chance.

Pick: NO -3. Saints win 34-28 (Over)

BYES: PIT, CAR

NFL Week Eleven Recap

Week Eleven

ATS: 6-8

Straight Up: 8-6

Over/Under: 7-7

Overall

ATS: 84-74-3
Straight Up: 93-67-1
Over/Under: 75-84-2

BUF @ MIA

MIA -6

42.5

Pick: MIA -6. Dolphins win 24-10 (Under)

Result: MIA 22-9 (Under)

HOU @ CLE

CLE -3

41

Pick: HOU +3. Texans win 27-20 (Over)

Result: HOU 23-7 (Under)

MIN @ CHI

CHI -3

46

Pick: CHI -3. Bears win 38-13 (Over)

Result: CHI 21-13 (Under)

SEA @ KC

KC -2

42

Pick: SEA +2. Seahawks win 28-17 (Over)

Result: KC 24-20 (Over)

ATL @ CAR

CAR -1.5

46.5

Pick: CAR -1.5. Panthers win 27-24 (Over)

Result: ATL 19-17 (Under)

CIN @ NO

NO -7

51

Pick: CIN +7. Saints win 31-30 (Over)

Result: CIN 27-10 (Under)

TB @ WAS

WAS -7

45.5

Pick: TB +7. Tampa Bay wins 21-17 (Under)

Result: TB 27-7 (Under)

DEN @ STL

DEN -9

51

Pick: DEN -9. Broncos win 34-13 (Under)

Result: STL 22-7 (Under)

SF @ NYG

SF -4

43.5

Pick: NYG +4. 49ers win 24-23 (Over)

Result: SF 16-10 (Under)

PHI @ GB

GB -6

54.5

Pick: PHI +6. Green Bay wins 34-31 (Over)

Result: GB 53-20 (Over)

OAK @ SD

SD -10

44.5

Pick: OAK +10. San Diego wins 23-17 (Under)

Result: SD 13-6 (Under)

DET @ ARI

ARI -2

41.5

Pick: DET +2. Lions win 23-21 (Over)

Result: ARI 14-6 (Under)

NE @ IND

IND -3

57.5

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-33 (Over)

Result: NE 42-20 (Over)

PIT @ TEN

PIT -5.5

46.5

Pick: PIT -5. Steelers win 24-17 (Under)

Result: PIT 27-24 (Over)

BYES: DAL, NYJ, JAX, BAL

NFL Week Eleven Preview

BUF @ MIA

MIA -6

42.5

It’s incredibly hard to sweep a divisional opponent, especially two years in a row. The Bills have gone downhill as the season has progressed, and it’s likely time for Miami’s 3-game losing streak against the Bills to end. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Fish and the two teams have played 6 of 9 Under. Miami has played 4 straight Unders and has covered in 3 straight as a favorite.

Pick: MIA -6. Dolphins win 24-10 (Under)

HOU @ CLE

CLE -3

41

I believe the Texans are the better team, especially with Ryan Mallett at the helm. I’ve been on the Mallett bandwagon ever since he was drafted and am excited to see what he does as a starting quarterback. I also think Hoyer will struggle with the Texans’ talented defensive line in his face most of the game. Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC South and the Browns and Texans have played 5 of 7 Under. Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC North and has played 6 of 8 Over.

Pick: HOU +3. Texans win 27-20 (Over)

MIN @ CHI

CHI -3

46

Chicago is almost certainly the better team, but have they given up? Last week was an absolute disgrace. If they’ve thrown in the towel, they’ll lose. Otherwise it’ll be a blowout on the heels of last week’s embarrassment. Chicago is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and have failed to cover in 3 straight against the Vikings (after having covered 6 straight before that).

Pick: CHI -3. Bears win 38-13 (Over)

SEA @ KC

KC -2

42

Really? Someone is overestimating Kansas City. The Chiefs have covered 4 of 5 against the Seahawks, but the teams haven’t played since 2010. Seattle is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against the AFC West but only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games. Kansas City has covered 3 straight at home but is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against NFC West teams.

Pick: SEA +2. Seahawks win 28-17 (Over)

ATL @ CAR

CAR -1.5

46.5

I still have no faith in Atlanta on the road, and Carolina is due for a win. They’re much better than their 3-6 record indicates and will be playing tough after Monday night’s embarrassing loss. As long as Newton isn’t too banged up to be effective, they should get the W. Carolina has covered 7 of 10 at home and played 6 of 10 Over. Atlanta has only covered 1 of 5 road games, but they’re 7-4 ATS in their last 11 against the Panthers.

Pick: CAR -1.5. Panthers win 27-24 (Over)

CIN @ NO

NO -7

51

This isn’t an easy pick; the Bengals and Saints are both solid teams, and both need a win. My logic for picking the Saints to win would be that they’re clearly a playoff team on paper, yet would be a longshot for the postseason if they fell to 4-6. The way they’ve been playing this season, however, “clearly a playoff team” is not a term I’ll allow myself to associate with New Orleans. Since a New Orleans blowout is not a likely scenario – the Bengals had an extra week to prepare and should be ashamed of how they played last Thursday – I’ll pick the Saints to win a nail-biter. New Orleans has only covered 2 of 5 at home and has failed to cover 4 straight against the AFC North. Cincy has covered 5 of 6 against the NFC South (and 3 straight against NO) and has played 7 of 8 Over against the NFC South.

Pick: CIN +7. Saints win 31-30 (Over)

TB @ WAS

WAS -7

45.5

There’s no way I’m spotting Washington 7 points unless the other team is blind or half-dead. And even then I’d have to make a hard decision. Tampa has failed to cover 5 straight against the NFC East, but is 4-2-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Skins. Washington has only covered 3 spreads this season and has failed to cover in 3 straight games against teams with losing records.

Pick: TB +7. Tampa Bay wins 21-17 (Under)

DEN @ STL

DEN -9

51

My initial gut reaction was to take St. Louis and the points, but I refuse to agree with my gut. I think that’s just the barbecue I ate for lunch trying to make its escape. St. Louis won’t score many points and as the Raiders proved last week, even if you can hold down the Broncos for a while, they’re eventually going to score a bunch. Denver had 6 points with about 3 minutes left in the 2^nd quarter, yet had 20 by halftime. And 41 by the end of the 3^rd quarter. St. Louis has covered 8 of 10 against the AFC West but has only covered 1 of their last 4 home games. Denver has only covered 1 of 3 against the Rams but is 5-1 ATS in their last six. The Broncos have also played 13 of 20 Over with Manning under center on the road.

Pick: DEN -9. Broncos win 34-13 (Under)

SF @ NYG

SF -4

43.5

This is a relatively big spread for a road team to cover, especially one that has been as inconsistent as the 49ers. I expect the Giants to cause San Francisco some problems, especially with Patrick Willis out. I expect the 49ers to win, simply because they need it more; but it may only be by a field goal. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the 49ers and have played 5 of 7 Over. San Francisco is 7-1 ATS as road favorites and has covered 6 of 8 against the NFC East.

Pick: NYG +4. 49ers win 24-23 (Over)

PHI @ GB

GB -6

54.5

After Monday night’s performance, I actually believe Mark Sanchez is capable of leading the Eagles. The offense fits his strengths and he seems to have grown since his time with the Jets. Green Bay is playing very well, but I think they’re over-inflated because of a few great games. They still have vulnerabilities, especially on defense. That said, Philly won in Green Bay last season. How many teams pull that off in back-to-back years? Green Bay is scoring a ton of points at home and should have just enough in the tank to hang on for a close win. Green Bay has covered 5 straight as home favorites and has played straight Unders against the Eagles. Philly has covered 5 of 7 against the Packers and 4 of 5 overall.

Pick: PHI +6. Green Bay wins 34-31 (Over)

OAK @ SD

SD -10

44.5

Whoa, this spread is way too big for me to be comfortable picking the Chargers. These AFC West games are almost always toss-ups, and it’s very hard for one division team to sweep another. San Diego won the first game, and I think they may pull off the sweep; but if it’s in blowout fashion I’ll be surprised. San Diego has covered 5 of 7 at home but only 1 of 4 against the AFC West. Despite being 0-9, Oakland has covered 4 of 9 this season and is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against San Diego.

Pick: OAK +10. San Diego wins 23-17 (Under)

DET @ ARI

ARI -2

41.5

With Carson Palmer out, Drew Stanton will be looking to stick it to his former team and prove he is capable of being a starter in the NFL. The problem with the Cardinals, however, is sustainability. They seem to be winning with smoke and mirrors…and a lot of forced turnovers. If Detroit takes care of the ball and plays defense as well as they have been all season, they’re the better team and should escape with a tight, hard-fought win. Arizona has covered 7 of 8 overall and 4 of 5 against Detroit. The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and have played 8 of 10 Over against the Cards.

Pick: DET +2. Lions win 23-21 (Over)

NE @ IND

IND -3

57.5

There’s very little chance this game will be played Under; expect a shootout. Brady and Luck have both been phenomenal. I’d give Brady the edge, but the loss of Chandler Jones along the Pats defensive line could be huge. Without his pressure, Luck should be able to pick apart the Patriots secondary. Indy has covered 8 of 10 at home and played 5 straight November Overs. The Pats have covered 8 of 10 as underdogs and have played 9 of 12 Over against Indy.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-33 (Over)

PIT @ TEN

PIT -5.5

46.5

I’m tempted to pick the Titans, as the Steelers really aren’t that good. Coming off an embarrassing loss to play under the lights on Monday Night is probably enough to wake them up, however, and I expect Big Ben to have a big game. Plus the Titans are really having a rough season. Tennessee has failed to cover in 10 straight home games and has only covered 2 of 11 against teams with winning records. Pittsburgh has covered 3 of 9 against Tennessee and 12 of 18 overall.

Pick: PIT -5. Steelers win 24-17 (Under)

BYES: DAL, NYJ, JAX, BAL

NFL Week Ten Recap

Week Ten

ATS: 8-5

Straight Up: 9-4

Over/Under: 5-8

Overall

ATS: 78-66-3
Straight Up: 85-61-1
Over/Under: 68-77-2

CLE @ CIN

CIN -6

45

Pick: CIN -6. Bengals win 31-19 (Over)

Result: CLE 24-3 (Under)

MIA @ DET

DET -3

43.5

Pick: DET -3. Lions win 24-17 (Under)

Result: DET 20-16 (Under)

DAL @ JAX

DAL -7

45

Pick: DAL -7. Dallas wins 26-13 (Under)

Result: DAL 31-17 (Over)

KC @ BUF

KC -1.5

41

Pick: BUF +1.5. Bills win 31-24 (Over)

Result: KC 17-13 (Under)

SF @ NO

NO -5

48.5

Pick: SF +5. 49ers win 23-21 (Under)

Result: SF 27-24 (Over)

TEN @ BAL

BAL -9.5

43.5

Pick: BAL -9.5. Ravens win 27-10 (Under)

Result: BAL 21-7 (Under)

PIT @ NYJ

PIT -4.5

45.5

Pick: NYJ +4.5. Jets win 24-20 (Under)

Result: NYJ 20-13 (Under)

ATL @ TB

ATL -1.5

45.5

Pick: TB +1.5. Bucs win 33-30 (Over)

Result: ATL 27-17 (Under)

DEN @ OAK

DEN -11

49

Pick: DEN -11. Broncos win 38-20 (Over)

Result: DEN 41-17 (Over)

STL @ ARI

ARI -7

43

Pick: ARI -7. Cardinals win 23-13 (Under)

Result: ARI 31-14 (Over)

NYG @ SEA

SEA -9

44.5

Pick: SEA -9. Seahawks win 31-21 (Over)

Result: SEA 38-17 (Over)

CHI @ GB

GB -7

53

Pick: CHI +7. Packers win 23-20 (Under)

Result: GB 55-14 (Over)

CAR @ PHI

PHI -6

48

Pick: CAR +6. Panthers win 27-19 (Under)

Result: PHI 45-21 (Over)

BYES: IND, MIN, NE, SD, WAS, HOU

NFL Week Ten Preview

CLE @ CIN

CIN -6

45

This game could be a blowout; Cincinnati is excellent at home, and the Browns have no business being over .500 and may be a little overconfident. Cincy has won 14 of 19 against Cleveland, but the Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. These teams have played 5 of 6 Over.

Pick: CIN -6. Bengals win 31-19 (Over)

MIA @ DET

DET -3

43.5

Pundits are suggesting the Dolphins are the NFL’s new “surprise” team. Miami certainly has a solid defense, but it’s Detroit’s excellent defense that has been a surprise thus far in 2014. Who would have thought a team boasting Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Bush would be known for their top-ranked defense!? With Detroit coming off a bye week, and with a presumably healthy Johnson and Bush on the field, Miami may be in the way of the wrong team at the wrong time. The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following 2 or more consecutive wins and have played 4 of 6 Under at home. Miami has won 5 of 6 against the Lions and has played 4 of 5 Under on the road.  

Pick: DET -3. Lions win 24-17 (Under)

DAL @ JAX

DAL -7

45

If Romo doesn’t play, this game could be closer than 7 points. Keep in mind, however, that the game is taking place in London and isn’t a true home game for Jacksonville. If it were, I’d be hesitant to pick the Cowboys to cover. Coming off of consecutive losses, I’d expect the Cowboys to beat one of the league’s worst teams by at least a touchdown.

Pick: DAL -7. Dallas wins 26-13 (Under)

KC @ BUF

KC -1.5

41

The Bills might be getting Fred Jackson back for this game, and I can’t imagine they’re thrilled about being a home underdog despite holding a winning record. KC has won a few in a row, but I still don’t consider them an elite team. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with KC but 0-5 ATS after their last 5 division wins and 0-2 ATS after their last two bye weeks. Both teams trend toward the Under.   

Pick: BUF +1.5. Bills win 31-24 (Over)

SF @ NO

NO -5

48.5

New Orleans looks like they’ve gotten their act together, and San Francisco seems to be falling apart. The 49ers are better on the road, though, and I imagine they’ll respond after two disappointing showings. New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SF and has played 6 of 9 Over at home. San Francisco is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in a dome and has played 5 of 7 Under on the road.

Pick: SF +5. 49ers win 23-21 (Under)

TEN @ BAL

BAL -9.5

43.5

Tennessee usually gives Baltimore trouble (TEN 5-1 ATS last 6), but with the Ravens coming off of two tough losses, even a rested Titans team shouldn’t be able to keep up. Add in the distraction of Shonn Greene’s recent arrest and Tennessee’s penchant for being blown out by solid opposition, and you have a recipe for a lopsided Ravens win. Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in their last 5 games against opponents with winning records and have played 5 straight Unders in Baltimore. The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and have played 10 of 14 Under at home.

Pick: BAL -9.5. Ravens win 27-10 (Under)

PIT @ NYJ

PIT -4.5

45.5

Pittsburgh is vastly overrated right now, but their offense is playing some outstanding football. As for the Jets, Vick seems timid and Geno is useless; but the Steelers have quite a few defensive injuries right now and are missing the heart of their secondary with Polamalu and Taylor both out. I thought Vick and company would have a good showing last week and I was horribly mistaken. Will I be mistaken again? Even if the offense sucks, the odds are still strong that Rex Ryan will have his troops ready for battle and the Jets will beat the spread as a home underdog. The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against Pittsburgh and have played 5 straight Unders at home vs. PIT.

Pick: NYJ +4.5. Jets win 24-20 (Under)

ATL @ TB

ATL -1.5

45.5

Yes, Atlanta is bad enough on the road for me to pick them to lose to Tampa Bay. Especially as a road favorite. Plus the Falcons are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Tampa. The Bucs have covered 8 straight November spreads but have failed to cover in 5 straight home games. Atlanta has played 3 straight Overs after bye weeks despite playing 4 of 6 Under in Tampa.

Pick: TB +1.5. Bucs win 33-30 (Over)

DEN @ OAK

DEN -11

49

I wouldn’t normally pick a team to cover an 11 point spread on the road…not even Denver. But for some reason the Broncos have won a lot of lopsided games in Oakland. Plus they’re coming off a loss. Oakland has only covered 1 of 6 against Denver at home and has played 4 of 6 Over at home. Denver has covered 13 of 16 against losing teams and has played 6 of 9 Over against Oakland. 
Pick: DEN -11. Broncos win 38-20 (Over)

STL @ ARI

ARI -7

43

I’m confused by the Rams; they should have no offense, yet they’re winning games. That said, Arizona has proven they’re for real. Carson Palmer is having a fantastic season and John Brown is an excellent addition to their already potent and speedy receiving corps. I don’t think the Rams defense can keep the score low enough – especially in Arizona – for their offense to keep pace. St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 trips to Arizona and has played 6 of 7 Under on the road. Arizona has covered 6 of 8 this season and has played 9 of 12 Under against the Rams.

Pick: ARI -7. Cardinals win 23-13 (Under)

NYG @ SEA

SEA -9

44.5

Seattle is a tough place to play. Though I’d like to think the Giants can keep this game within a touchdown, they’ll almost certainly lose. I’ll give Seattle the benefit of the doubt on the spread, as I believe their stellar pass defense will create a few Giants turnovers that could lead to quick points. Seattle has won 20 of 22 home games and has played 4 of 5 Over against the Giants. NY is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 against the Seahawks and have played 15 of 22 Under on the road.

Pick: SEA -9. Seahawks win 31-21 (Over)

CHI @ GB

GB -7

53

The Packers were playing very well prior to their bye week. The Bears were not. Though I expect that to continue, it’s rare for a team to blow out a division opponent – especially a decent one – twice in one year. Green Bay has won 8 of 9 against Chicago and has played 11 of 14 Under against the Bears. Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 trips to Green Bay and has played 16 of 21 Over on the road.

Pick: CHI +7. Packers win 23-20 (Under)

CAR @ PHI

PHI -6

48

I am not picking the Sanchez-led anything to win anything. I’m also surprised Carolina is only 3-5-1; I expected them to be a better team this season. The Panthers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against Philly but have covered 2 straight Monday Night games. The Eagles are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games and have played 5 of 7 Over against the Panthers.

Pick: CAR +6. Panthers win 27-19 (Under)

BYES: IND, MIN, NE, SD, WAS, HOU