NFL Week Twelve Preview

KC @ OAK

KC -7

42

Oakland just kept it close against the Chargers, so you’d figure they’d also play tough against the Chiefs. Then again, Thursday night games have been mostly blowouts this season and it’s much more likely that the Chiefs will blow out the Raiders than vice versa.

Pick: KC -7. Chiefs win 27-6 (Under)

NYJ @ BUF

BUF -3

39

It’s rare for one mediocre team to sweep another in NFL divisional play. The Jets were embarrassed by the Bills a few weeks ago; I doubt they’ve forgotten about it. Plus Buffalo hasn’t practiced all week because of the snow and doesn’t get a true home field advantage, regardless of where the game ends up being played.   

Pick: NYJ +3. Jets win 24-19 (Over)

CLE @ ATL

ATL -3

47

I expect the Falcons to play well at home, especially knowing they’re in front of the NFC South and still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs despite a few horrible performances. Plus the Browns defense is banged up and isn’t playing as well as it was early in the season.

Pick: ATL -3. Falcons win 34-24 (Over)

TEN @ PHI

PHI -11

49

Philly is due for a bounce-back performance. I have no idea why I have faith in Sanchez…but I definitely have no faith in the Titans’ ability to stop the Eagles’ speed offensively.

Pick: PHI -11. Eagles win 45-17 (Over)

DET @ NE

NE -7

48

This is an interesting matchup. Detroit’s defense is one of the best in the league; can it cause Brady problems? Will Revis Island shut down Calvin Johnson, rendering the Lions’ offense ineffective? I actually think both are true; the only safe bet is the Under.

Pick: DET +7. New England wins 20-16 (Under)

GB @ MIN

GB -9.5

48.5

I didn’t think I’d pick the Packers to pull a third-straight blowout, but Minnesota isn’t very good. I refuse to underestimate Aaron Rodgers until he gives me reason to, although I recognize the danger in picking a road team to cover 9 ½ points on the road while riding high after 2 straight blowout wins.

Pick: GB -9.5. Packers roll again, 41-14 (Over)

JAX @ IND

IND -14

50.5

It’s tough enough to beat an NFL-caliber team twice in one season, let alone blow them out both times. This game should be closer than the first, especially with Bradshaw out and Jacksonville coming off a bye week.

Pick: JAX +14. Indy wins 27-17 (Under)

CIN @ HOU

HOU -2.5

43.5

Cincinnati played great on the road last week and will be getting Giovanni Bernard back in Houston. I love Ryan Mallett, but I think the Bengals are a clear playoff team and the Texans simply aren’t. Keep in mind, though, that Cincy has failed to cover 5 straight spreads against the Texans and Houston has covered 4 straight as a favorite.

Pick: CIN +2.5. Bengals win 24-13 (Under)

TB @ CHI

CHI -6

46

Chicago is still terrible at home, plus Josh McCown will likely perform well in front of his old home crowd. That said, I don’t foresee Tampa’s defense shutting down Marshall and Jeffery.

Pick: TB +6. Bears win 27-24 (Over)

ARI @ SEA

SEA -7

44.5

The Seahawks don’t lose at home. Plus they’re pissed about last week’s loss. Plus Arizona is due for a lackluster performance. Plus hell will freeze over if Arizona moves to 10-1.

Pick: SEA -7. Seahawks win 23-10 (Under)

STL @ SD

SD -5

43

Whatever they did to Peyton Manning should work against Philip Rivers, too. The Rams play extremely hard and are very well coached. This should be a close game, but I’ll take the Chargers to win simply because the Rams are better at home.

Pick: STL +5. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

MIA @ DEN

DEN -7

48

I don’t know what happened to the Broncos last week, but unless it becomes a trend I’m sticking with Peyton and his high-scoring attack. Of course, if Thomas and Sanders end up missing the game due to their injuries, Miami could keep it low-scoring.

Pick: DEN -7. Broncos 31-14 (Under)

WAS @ SF

SF -9

44

Yeah right. San Francisco is terrible at home. There’s no way I’m spotting them 9.

Pick: WAS +9. 49ers win 21-17 (Under)

DAL @ NYG

DAL -3

47.5

I should pick the Cowboys, especially after their bye week. That said, they beat the Giants once already this season, and a split is much more likely. I still don’t 100% trust the Cowboys, and as bad as the Giants have been, I expect them to play well as a home underdog against a hated rival.

Pick: NYG +3. Giants win 24-23 (Under)

BAL @ NO

NO -3

50

I really don’t trust New Orleans yet, but they should play hard after losing at home, especially knowing that their division title is still within reach. Somebody from the NFC South will probably make the playoffs at 9-7 or 8-8, so all the Saints have to do is suck slightly less than the rest of the division. Since they’re bad on the road, they better win at home when they have the chance.

Pick: NO -3. Saints win 34-28 (Over)

BYES: PIT, CAR