NFL Week Ten Preview

CLE @ CIN

CIN -6

45

This game could be a blowout; Cincinnati is excellent at home, and the Browns have no business being over .500 and may be a little overconfident. Cincy has won 14 of 19 against Cleveland, but the Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. These teams have played 5 of 6 Over.

Pick: CIN -6. Bengals win 31-19 (Over)

MIA @ DET

DET -3

43.5

Pundits are suggesting the Dolphins are the NFL’s new “surprise” team. Miami certainly has a solid defense, but it’s Detroit’s excellent defense that has been a surprise thus far in 2014. Who would have thought a team boasting Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Bush would be known for their top-ranked defense!? With Detroit coming off a bye week, and with a presumably healthy Johnson and Bush on the field, Miami may be in the way of the wrong team at the wrong time. The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following 2 or more consecutive wins and have played 4 of 6 Under at home. Miami has won 5 of 6 against the Lions and has played 4 of 5 Under on the road.  

Pick: DET -3. Lions win 24-17 (Under)

DAL @ JAX

DAL -7

45

If Romo doesn’t play, this game could be closer than 7 points. Keep in mind, however, that the game is taking place in London and isn’t a true home game for Jacksonville. If it were, I’d be hesitant to pick the Cowboys to cover. Coming off of consecutive losses, I’d expect the Cowboys to beat one of the league’s worst teams by at least a touchdown.

Pick: DAL -7. Dallas wins 26-13 (Under)

KC @ BUF

KC -1.5

41

The Bills might be getting Fred Jackson back for this game, and I can’t imagine they’re thrilled about being a home underdog despite holding a winning record. KC has won a few in a row, but I still don’t consider them an elite team. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with KC but 0-5 ATS after their last 5 division wins and 0-2 ATS after their last two bye weeks. Both teams trend toward the Under.   

Pick: BUF +1.5. Bills win 31-24 (Over)

SF @ NO

NO -5

48.5

New Orleans looks like they’ve gotten their act together, and San Francisco seems to be falling apart. The 49ers are better on the road, though, and I imagine they’ll respond after two disappointing showings. New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SF and has played 6 of 9 Over at home. San Francisco is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in a dome and has played 5 of 7 Under on the road.

Pick: SF +5. 49ers win 23-21 (Under)

TEN @ BAL

BAL -9.5

43.5

Tennessee usually gives Baltimore trouble (TEN 5-1 ATS last 6), but with the Ravens coming off of two tough losses, even a rested Titans team shouldn’t be able to keep up. Add in the distraction of Shonn Greene’s recent arrest and Tennessee’s penchant for being blown out by solid opposition, and you have a recipe for a lopsided Ravens win. Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in their last 5 games against opponents with winning records and have played 5 straight Unders in Baltimore. The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and have played 10 of 14 Under at home.

Pick: BAL -9.5. Ravens win 27-10 (Under)

PIT @ NYJ

PIT -4.5

45.5

Pittsburgh is vastly overrated right now, but their offense is playing some outstanding football. As for the Jets, Vick seems timid and Geno is useless; but the Steelers have quite a few defensive injuries right now and are missing the heart of their secondary with Polamalu and Taylor both out. I thought Vick and company would have a good showing last week and I was horribly mistaken. Will I be mistaken again? Even if the offense sucks, the odds are still strong that Rex Ryan will have his troops ready for battle and the Jets will beat the spread as a home underdog. The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against Pittsburgh and have played 5 straight Unders at home vs. PIT.

Pick: NYJ +4.5. Jets win 24-20 (Under)

ATL @ TB

ATL -1.5

45.5

Yes, Atlanta is bad enough on the road for me to pick them to lose to Tampa Bay. Especially as a road favorite. Plus the Falcons are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Tampa. The Bucs have covered 8 straight November spreads but have failed to cover in 5 straight home games. Atlanta has played 3 straight Overs after bye weeks despite playing 4 of 6 Under in Tampa.

Pick: TB +1.5. Bucs win 33-30 (Over)

DEN @ OAK

DEN -11

49

I wouldn’t normally pick a team to cover an 11 point spread on the road…not even Denver. But for some reason the Broncos have won a lot of lopsided games in Oakland. Plus they’re coming off a loss. Oakland has only covered 1 of 6 against Denver at home and has played 4 of 6 Over at home. Denver has covered 13 of 16 against losing teams and has played 6 of 9 Over against Oakland. 
Pick: DEN -11. Broncos win 38-20 (Over)

STL @ ARI

ARI -7

43

I’m confused by the Rams; they should have no offense, yet they’re winning games. That said, Arizona has proven they’re for real. Carson Palmer is having a fantastic season and John Brown is an excellent addition to their already potent and speedy receiving corps. I don’t think the Rams defense can keep the score low enough – especially in Arizona – for their offense to keep pace. St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 trips to Arizona and has played 6 of 7 Under on the road. Arizona has covered 6 of 8 this season and has played 9 of 12 Under against the Rams.

Pick: ARI -7. Cardinals win 23-13 (Under)

NYG @ SEA

SEA -9

44.5

Seattle is a tough place to play. Though I’d like to think the Giants can keep this game within a touchdown, they’ll almost certainly lose. I’ll give Seattle the benefit of the doubt on the spread, as I believe their stellar pass defense will create a few Giants turnovers that could lead to quick points. Seattle has won 20 of 22 home games and has played 4 of 5 Over against the Giants. NY is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 against the Seahawks and have played 15 of 22 Under on the road.

Pick: SEA -9. Seahawks win 31-21 (Over)

CHI @ GB

GB -7

53

The Packers were playing very well prior to their bye week. The Bears were not. Though I expect that to continue, it’s rare for a team to blow out a division opponent – especially a decent one – twice in one year. Green Bay has won 8 of 9 against Chicago and has played 11 of 14 Under against the Bears. Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 trips to Green Bay and has played 16 of 21 Over on the road.

Pick: CHI +7. Packers win 23-20 (Under)

CAR @ PHI

PHI -6

48

I am not picking the Sanchez-led anything to win anything. I’m also surprised Carolina is only 3-5-1; I expected them to be a better team this season. The Panthers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against Philly but have covered 2 straight Monday Night games. The Eagles are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games and have played 5 of 7 Over against the Panthers.

Pick: CAR +6. Panthers win 27-19 (Under)

BYES: IND, MIN, NE, SD, WAS, HOU