NFL Week 9 Recap

Overall SU: 85-44 (8-5 wk 9)
Week 9 ATS: 6-7
Overall ATS: 59-69-1

Back on Track
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -10
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -10. Atlanta wins 27-6.
Result: Falcons 31-17
They let the Skins get closer late, but the Falcons had this one well in hand the whole way. You had to figure they would. Atlanta is a very solid team.

Back on Track, Part II
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Arizona wins on the road 24-23.
Result: Cardinals 41-21
Yikes! I called a Cardinals win, but not a blowout. Chicago is in trouble. The D is banged up, and the offense can't win shootouts. They still have the talent to surprise some teams, but I think the playoffs are out of reach.

Befuddled...Flabbergasted...Shocked-and-Awed...
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore is Crabby (pun intended). They'll roll 31-16.
Result: Bengals 17-7
How in the...What the...HUH? Baltimore was so good that after three weeks I wanted to change my Super Bowl pick to include them. And now they're 4-4. With two losses to the Bengals. Wow. I don't take Cincy for granted, and realize they're a solid team, but that still doesn't explain them beating the Ravens. The Bengals are good, but the Ravens should be elite. They just haven't been playing that way.

What is wrong with me?
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -9
O/U: 48
My Pick: Colts -9. Big game for Peyton. Indy wins 38-28.
Result: Colts 20-17
I know better than to ever take the Colts with a big spread against the Texans, as they always seem to play close games. Apparently I had a brain fart last Thursday. So this game went just as I thought it would. No surprises, as the Colts remain undefeated for their showdown with the Pats. New England could be the first team to down the Saints, too, as they'll face New Orleans in 3 weeks.

Too Close. Damn.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -6.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Jaguars -6.5. Jacksonville wins easily 23-10.
Result: Jags 24-21
Didn't think KC would score that many points without Johnson, but I guess I should have known better than to give nearly 7 points to a crappy team. Jacksonville is now 4-4, which is insane, as they really aren't good. Guess they've just played an easy schedule.

Green Bay, it's the Playoffs Calling. They said to tell you HAHAHA...
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers -9.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Packers -9.5. Green Bay hits 3 50+yard plays and rolls 38-13.
Result: Bucs 38-28
How does your defense let the Bucs score 38? How can your offense, the #2 quick strike attack in the league, score only 28 against the team that gives up the most big plays in the NFL? Dunno. Guess Green Bay really wants January off.

Whew
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Dolphins +10.5. New England wins 31-23.
Result: Pats 27-17
Miami is an awfully good 3-5 team, and New England just found that out. But Brady has things clicking again, and the Pats are rolling toward the postseason. It remains to be seen just how good they are, but with dates against the Colts and Saints on the horizon, we will certainly find out.

Damn Panthers
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 51.5
My Pick: Saints -13.5. At home, the Saints are just too good this year. 45-23.
Result: Saints 30-20
That #1 pass defense worked a little better than I thought it would against the Saints. Carolina had the lead at the half, but New Orleans proved to be too strong down the stretch, again winning with defense. They're a great team, but I don't think they'll be undefeated much longer. They keep getting behind, and despite the power of their offense, sooner or later someone will figure out a way to hold them down just enough to not let them back in the game.

Thank God for Late TDs
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seahawks -10. Seattle wins it 34-21.
Result: Seahawks 32-20
I was basically wrong about this game, as it was kept much closer than I thought it would be. When I said 34-21, I meant 34-7 and some late touchdowns for the Lions, not 25-20 and a very late touchdown by the Seahawks to cover. I'll take the win, though!

The Streak Continues
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -4.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Chargers +4.5. New York wins a close one 23-21.
Result: Chargers 21-20
The way that game played out, I thought I'd be exactly right on the final score. Had Eli been able to hit a decent play in that last 15 seconds to set up a field goal, I'd have been right on. A great win for the Chargers, a tough loss for the Giants, but now that they have two weeks to think about their 4-game losing streak, I wouldn't want to be on their schedule in the second half. They'll need to go at least 5-2 to make the playoffs in a very solid NFC.

Guess that Bye was all they needed...
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 41
My Pick: 49ers -4. San Fran wins 20-10.
Result: Titans 34-27
I have been overestimating the 49ers a lot lately, but this was a case of underestimating the Titans. After a bit of encouragement from Jeff Fisher during their bye week, the Titans look like a totally different team. Guess the Manning Jersey-thing worked. San Fran needs to regroup. Every win the Cards get moves the 49ers closer to a certain 2nd place finish in the NFC West, and only 1 team from that division is going to the postseason.

Everybody's looking up at the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 34-30.
Result: Cowboys 20-16
Just a few weeks ago everyone was flipping out over how bad the Cowboys were playing and how they were again doing far too little with far too much talent. Now they're on top of the best division in football. It is the perfect time to be at the top, too, as their schedule looks pretty easy for the next few weeks, which will make it tough for Philly and New York to catch them. Philly lives and dies by the big play. This week, they died by it. Pressure McNabb and he can't hit the deep ball. A Simple strategy that worked to perfection.

Defending Champs til the end...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 16-10.
Result: Steelers 28-10
Pittsburgh hasn't lost much talent since last season, and this week they showed it. Another big game for Mendenhall, and the defense stepped up huge. If they can beat the Bengals the second time around, Pittsburgh will be well on their way to another division title. Denver will bounce back from these two losses and will challenge for the AFC West, but it is no longer a done deal. They're only 1-up on San Diego, and the Chargers are playing with purpose.