NFL Week Twelve Preview

Thursday, November 26th:

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Packers -11
O/U: 47.5
Detroit couldn't even score the last time these two teams met, and with health questions surrounding Stafford and Calvin Johnson, I don't foresee an offensive explosion. The Thanksgiving holiday gives the Lions a little more to play for, but the 6-4 Packers are still in the playoff hunt. The loss to Tampa hurts; this loss would cripple them. I don't think they'll be looking past this game at all, and a Packers team playing its best should destroy a beat-up Lions squad.
My Pick: Packers -11. Green Bay is eating Lion for Thanksgiving. 33-10.

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13.5
O/U: 40
Dallas is 0-6 against the Raiders at home since 1983. Doesn't that seem ridiculous? Dallas has also been playing down to opponents this season, and despite the opposing quarterback being Bruce Gradkowski, if they can't score, the Cowboys won't win by 14. On the bright side, Dallas' offense is clearly better than it has been playing, and just needs a push to get back on track. Playing Oakland on Thanksgiving may be all the push they need. Oakland won their 3rd game of the year last week, and has been blown out the week after each of their first 2 wins. I think it is time for Dallas to break out of its funk. Sorry football fans; I think both turkey day games will be over by halftime...
My Pick: Cowboys -13.5. Dallas carves up the Raiders 35-13.

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 42
We'll try my Broncos strategy one more time, as this is the type of game for which it was intended. New York recently lost 4 straight and required overtime last week to break out of their funk. Despite an under-performing defense and a lack of experience at wide receiver, the Giants should dismantle a struggling Denver team that has lost 4 straight after a 6-0 start. The Broncos are doing everything they can right now to miss the playoffs, and I think the Giants will oblige them by winning in the Mile High City. The Denver defense has been awful lately (the Redskins scored 27 on them...), and I think the Giants will win by plenty. But my picking strategy says they won't.
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. New York wins a squeaker 23-20.

Sunday, November 29th:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -12
O/U: 46
Clearly the Falcons need the win, but I'm not sure it will be a blowout. First of all, Michael Turner still isn't a definite, and even if he plays I have to assume he'll get limited carries. Second, the Bucs were playing confident football before last week's predictable blowout loss to the Saints. The Falcons showed in San Fran that they are capable of putting up a ton of points and completely obliterating an opponent, but will it happen this week? The trends say no, as Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 at home against Tampa, and the Bucs have covered 4 straight overall against the Falcons. I worry about the Bucs' 32nd-ranked run D against a solid rushing attack, but they almost beat Miami, so I have to believe they're getting better.
My Pick: Buccaneers +12. Atlanta wins 27-19.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 40
The Bills may be my team, but they aren't playing very good football right now. They'll play hard against the rival Fins, but Miami has looked awfully solid lately. If Buffalo can stop Williams and get a few INTs from Henne, they'll have a shot. But Buffalo's run D is awful. Only Tampa is worse.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 17-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 38
This is a big trap game for Indy, as the Texans are actually pretty good. Had the spread been a little larger, I might have picked the Texans. The problem is that Houston has won only one of 14 games against Indy in the short history of the franchise, and it is likely that if Indy wins, it will be by more than 3. I know Indy won by 1 and 2 in consecutive weeks, and is likely a bit tired after 2 really tough games, but the Texans are tired, too. That Monday nighter against Tennessee was hard-fought, and Houston spared no energy, physically or emotionally, in an attempt to win it. I like the Texans, and if they win I won't be shocked, but I think the odds of Indy winning by at least 3 are much larger than the odds of Houston covering. Also keep in mind that these teams have played 8 straight Overs.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy escapes with a 27-23 victory.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41.5
Carolina is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against the Jets, but I wonder if they can generate much offensively without Steve Smith being involved in the offense, as he'll no doubt be marked by Revis throughout this game. Both teams are wildly inconsistent, but I have to trust DelHomme and the Panthers run game over rookie QB Mark Sanchez and a Jets run D that just keeps getting worse.
My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 20-17.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 41.5
The first time these teams met, Philly won by 10. But they relied almost solely on the big play, actually losing the time of possession battle by 3 minutes despite winning the game by plenty. They were completely shut out by the Redskins' defense in the second half, and it is possible that the Redskins, who lead the league in pass defense, will be able to draw upon that success to hold down the Eagles offense once again. The Eagles need the win, but I don't think it will be easy.
My Pick: Redskins +9. Philadelphia wins 20-14.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 42.5
With Bulger out, I can't believe the spread on this game is only three. Kyle Boller is a capable backup, but the Rams were shut out 28-0 in Seattle in week one. What makes this game different? Seattle is playing for pride, as they were supposed to be much better than they have proven to be. I expect them to be prepared.
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle wins easily 27-10.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 39
So will we see the Cincy team that plays down to lesser opponents, or the one that plays exceptionally well within the division? It took overtime for them to beat the Browns last time. After tough losses last week, I expect both teams to play hard, and Cincy at its best should crush Cleveland at its best. But Cincy has only won ONE game by at least 14 points all year; I can't pick them to cover such a big spread.
My Pick: Browns +14. Cincy wins 24-13.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -13.5
O/U: 45
How good has San Diego been lately? They're finally playing like the team everyone expected them to be. So it only follows that they're due for a letdown. No, not a loss, but certainly a close battle against a division opponent who has developed a ton of confidence of their own the past few weeks. Did you know KC has beaten the spread 3 weeks straight? No Larry Johnson, no problem! And KC is also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against SD, so I'm not exactly going out on a limb with this one.
My Pick: Chiefs +13.5. Chargers win 23-17.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 41.5
It annoys me that Jacksonville appears in the playoff picture right now. They are not good, and have beaten only bad teams. Houston and Tennessee are the exceptions, but both were playing poorly at the time they faced the Jags. This team lost to SEATTLE 41-0. Enough Said. San Fran started off great, but has quickly fallen back to earth. The Jags won the only 2 prior meetings in this series, but I think San Fran is primed for a run in the NFC West. If they're going to contend, they have to start winning now.
My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 23-9.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 46
I am actually a little surprised that Tennessee is favored, even at home. Arizona has been very solid on the road this season. I guess the oddsmakers realize that this Titans team is very different from the one that began the season. The Cards have covered every road spread thus far except for last week, when Warner was injured. He's back, and I expect them to play well. But at 7-3, they're a bit of a surprise even to me, and I can't see them finishing much better than 10-6, which means they'll need to lose 3 more times. They'll lose to Minny, and maybe Green Bay, but they should win the rest. So winning this game would put them in position to win at least 11 games, which would be shocking. Tennessee knows they need to win out to have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs, and as such, have much more to play for. I hate to bet on the continued success of Vince Young, but he has looked pretty good so far. I think he just needed the Titans to scheme the offense around him, rather than to throw him, a uniquely mobile quarterback, into a scheme designed for more of a pocket passer. Ever since he's been "the guy", the Titans are 4-0.
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Tennessee finally hands Arizona a road loss 23-21.

Chicago Bears @ MInnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 47
The Vikings have been great, the Bears have been terrible. The pressure the Vikings can bring (#1 in sacks) will hurt Cutler, and I expect him to throw a few INTs. Favre has the best passer rating in the NFL, and I don't see a depleted Bears defense stopping him, especially at home. It may also be a blessing in disguise that they're not undeafeated, as this might be a different game with that hanging over their head.
My Pick: Vikings -10.5. Minnesota wins big again 34-17.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
There is no line because oddsmakers are still worried about Big Ben's probability of playing. I think he'll be in there. If I could bet on someone dying instead of the final score, I might go for that. This is going to be another nasty, hard-hitting, animosity-filled Steelers-Ravens game. The fact that Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are a little banged up might not matter much, but it is the one thing I might actually be able to use to decide who will win. Then again, if the line comes out in Pittsburgh's favor, the Ravens are always a solid pick as a home underdog.
My Pick: Steelers 17-13.

Monday, November 30th:

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 56
This is the game everyone has been waiting for. Including the Saints. Do you think they live in a bubble? Of course not. They know that everyone expects them to go undefeated if they can get by the Pats. They've got nothing to look past this game to, and are a stellar home team. They will do everything they can to win. The Pats are thinking about this battle the same way, but I honestly think the Saints are better if both teams play with passion. And New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they've faced the Pats.
My Pick: Saints -3. New Orleans wins a point fest 38-34.