NFL Week Twelve Recap

Overall SU: 117-59 (12-4 wk 12)
Week 12 ATS: 12-3-1
Overall ATS: 89-85-2

How Good is the Pack?
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Packers -11
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Packers -11. Green Bay is eating Lion for Thanksgiving. 33-10.
Result: Packers 34-12
Green Bay has one terrible loss (TB), but their other losses are to very good teams (MIN twice, CIN). The only potential playoff team they've beaten, though, is Dallas. And I'm not really sure how good the Cowboys are, either. I see Green Bay as a middle of the road team with an exceptionally easy schedule to this point. They may get to 10-6 if they can beat the Cards in week 17, and that may be good enough to secure a wild card spot. But that's about as far as I expect them to get.

Finally some points...
Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Cowboys -13.5. Dallas carves up the Raiders 35-13.
Result: Cowboys 24-7
Still not the offensive explosion they wanted to see, but at 8-3 the Cowboys are just happy to get a somewhat easy win. Even with the extra time off, I'm not sure they'll win at Giants stadium. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, I'll pencil them in for 2 more wins and a 10-6 finish. Can anybody catch them? We'll have to wait and see.

Does this team ever have consistency?
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. New York wins a squeaker 23-20.
Result: Broncos 26-6
The Broncos are impossible to predict. They've been awful on both sides of the ball, and all of a sudden pulled everything together against the Giants? Wow. New York is another story. They're just not playing very well right now. It is crazy to think that they might not make the playoffs, but at 6-5 it is a definite possibility.

Ryan Out, Falcons Out
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -12
O/U: 46
My Pick: Buccaneers +12. Atlanta wins 27-19.
Result: Falcons 20-17
Atlanta lost Matt Ryan at the worst possible time. They finish the season with 3 "easy" games, but the upcoming Philly and New Orleans games will be nearly impossible to win with Redman at QB, and 6-7 after week 14 should take them out of the running for the NFC Wildcard Slot. It's too bad, really, as the Falcons have played some brilliant games this season.

You Can't Take a Quarter Off...
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 40
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 17-13.
Result: Bills 31-14
Until the 4th quarter, Miami was in line to win this one. But apparently the team had somewhere to be, and decided to leave prior to the 4th quarter. All of a sudden the Bills started scoring and the Fins had no answer.

Keeping Pace...Could we have 2 Undefeated Teams?
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 38
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy escapes with a 27-23 victory.
Result: Colts 35-27
It looked shaky early, but Indy knows how to pull off a comeback as well as any team in the league. And once again it was the Colts defense getting them back into the game. If the Indy D keeps acting as a catalyst for an already stellar offense, they'll be very tough to stop. Houston likely needs to win out to get a wild card slot at 10-6. The only major problem for them may come in week 17 when they face the Pats. Their next 4 games are very winnable despite losing their last 3.

Dammit, DelHomme
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 20-17.
Result: Jets 17-6
Jake is back throwing INTs again. It's awfully tough to pick games when you can't rely on a team's QB. The Jets played well, though, and I have to give them credit for a well-orchestrated game defensively. They played the run well enough to force Carolina to rely on the pass, and Revis and the Jets' DBs took it from there.

Can they Catch the Cowboys?
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Redskins +9. Philadelphia wins 20-14.
Result: Eagles 27-24
Philly needed this one. Now at 7-4, they're in a great position to catch Dallas, especially with one game left to be played between the two. The Skins O seems to be a bit better than it was earlier in the year, but they continue to lose close games. They just aren't good enough to hang on to beat elite NFC East oppostion despite a 3-1 ATS record in the division.

Battle of the Defeated
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle wins easily 27-10.
Result: Seahawks 27-17
St. Louis has been bad all year, but Seattle was expected to be pretty good. They're not. That realization has to have hit them by now, and I'm sure both of these teams are looking forward to the offseason already. But at least the Seahawks got another win.

Brown Baggin
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 39
My Pick: Browns +14. Cincy wins 24-13.
Result: Bengals 16-7
The Cleveland defense has been quite stout lately against some solid offenses, yet Cleveland has yet to improve on its 1-win record. You can't win many games without an offense, and the only game in which Cleveland scored a decent number of points was the one in Detroit...and that happend to be the day the defense didn't show up. Cincy has a tendency to play bad teams tight. They are clearly a team that wins based on heart, so the trick to picking their games is to figure out how amped up they'll be for that game. If they don't care, they won't beat the spread.

No Intention of Slowing Down
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -13.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Chiefs +13.5. Chargers win 23-17.
Result: Chargers 43-14
So I guess the Chargers are just going to keep playing incredibly well. There were certainly no signs of fatigue or apathy this week. At their best, they can challenge anyone. This is a team that could make the playoffs very interesting.

Back toward .500 (Where they Belong)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 23-9.
Result: 49ers 20-3
The 49ers defense stepped up big this week, which is good to see after a couple of questionable outings over the past 3 games. San Fran probably still won't make the playoffs, but they're making great strides toward building a contending team in the next few years. Jacksonville has no business being part of the playoff picture, and I am happy to see them headed back toward .500. Their next 3 games are at home, and I expect them to lose all 3.

Still Going!
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 46
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Tennessee finally hands Arizona a road loss 23-21.
Result: Titans 20-17
Vince Young has been huge for the Titans, and they have finally gotten back to the culture of winning that was such a big part of the franchise's run last year. Next week is their biggest test, as they travel to Indianapolis. If they can win that one (and get lucky in SD), 10-6 is still possible. It's a tough loss for the Warner-less Cards, but they should be in line to make the playoffs as long as they don't screw up their easy games down the stretch.

Purple Reign
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Vikings -10.5. Minnesota wins big again 34-17.
Result: Vikings 36-10
Minnesota is a very good 10-1 team, and could be the biggest challenge to the Saints' Super Bowl hopes. With one of the best running backs in the league, a very tough D, and a hall of fame QB, they can beat you in so many ways. Chicago was bound to have a down year as soon as Urlacher was hurt, but after the boost in morale following the Cutler acquisition, I think a lot of windy city fans convinced themselves that they were not only a playoff team, but a contender. Think again.

Round 1 Goes to the Ravens...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: N/A (Ravens -4)
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Steelers 17-13.
Result: Ravens 20-17 (ot)
When I picked this game on Thursday, Roethlisberger looked like he would play. On Friday, it became evident that he wouldn't. Rather than change the pick at the last minute, I decided that the Steeler defense would step up in his absence and allow the Steelers to keep it close in the face of what I assumed would be at least a 4 point spread. I thought the Ravens would win, but since my pick was already the equivalent of PIT +4, I just decided to keep it. And it worked out. The Ravens needed this game much more than Pitt, and though I expect the Steelers to win the next meeting, the Baltimore win may mean that both of these teams will get AFC wild card berths.

No More Questions
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 56
My Pick: Saints -3. New Orleans wins a point fest 38-34.
Result: Saints 38-17
I think we're all agreed that the Saints aren't a fluke. They really are that good. Though they often screw around against crappy teams and end up having to mount a comeback, when they want to perform, they have the ability to just "flip the switch". That is an awfully dangerous quality for opponents to deal with. New England is not in any trouble, and they'll win the AFC East easily. If they want any shot at a bye, though, they'll need to win the rest of their games.