NFL Week Fourteen Preview

Thursday, December 10th:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 33
The Steelers are very angry to be in the position in which they've found themselves...losers of 4 straight, they must win out to have a chance at a playoff berth. And since it's the defense's fault, I expect them to come out hungry to show that they can still control a football game. Plus Cleveland's offense is pretty useless. Then again, Hines Ward will likely be out, Polamalu is definitely out, and the weather will be cold and snowy. Last season the Steelers played a home game against Cincy in similar conditions and were favored by 9. I chose the Bengals because I thought the snow would limit the Steelers' scoring. It didn't, and they won by 17. So now I have a decision on my hands. I don't necessarily trust the Steelers' run game against the Browns' D if there is no legitimate passing threat. Then again, Pittsburgh can use this opportunity to get back to their "typical" game plan, which involves rushing, ball control, and defense. If they do, they'll win by plenty. Because the Steelers' D is #1 in the NFL in rush defense, and rushing may be the only choice for Cleveland if the weather is atrocious, I have to take Pitt.
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh wins 13-0.

Sunday, December 13th:

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 50
This is the game I've looked at since week 5 as the possible downfall of the Saints perfect season. Atlanta isn't an easy place to play, and the Saints almost lost to the damn Redskins last week. It is tough to pick this game today (Thursday), though, as Turner and Ryan are still questionable...if they play, it could be close, and I wouldn't even be surprised by a Falcon win. But picking based on the probability that they won't play, and that if they do play they'll be less than 100%, I have to choose New Orleans. They know this is one of the few high hurdles they have left to jump, and they'll be ready to play. And after last week's performance, I'm not going to pick the Atlanta defense to step up and shut down the league's best offense.
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 38-23.

Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -6
O/U: 44.5
The Texans have lost 4 in a row to drop out of the playoff hunt, but I'd still be shocked if they didn't get to 8-8 by season's end. So they need to win this one. Seattle has been awful on the road all year (0-5 ATS), and Houston is very good at home in December (12-2 ATS last 14). It's time for Houston to break out of its funk.
My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 34-21.

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 44
The only .500 team the Jags have beaten this year was the Jets, and I still say that was a fluke. And by the end of the year, I expect the Jets to be under .500 anyway. This is a football team that has gotten into the playoff picture simply by being a middle-of-the-road team that beats almost everyone it is supposed to beat, but never really does much against a good team. And they lost 41-0 @Seattle. That's just awful. The Dolphins have gotten themselves in position to legitimately contend for a wild card spot, and I don't think they'll blow it against the Jaguars. But I guess you never know. Odd Stat of the week: The road team has won the past 2 meetings by a score of 24-10. So let's go for 3!
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 24-10.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6
O/U: 43
Let me start off by saying that I think Minnesota is the better team, and could very well be this year's Super Bowl Champion. They're that good. Cincy has also played well, and though I don't think they're at Minnesota's level, I do see them competing in this football game. They've played their better opponents very well thus far, and had they not fallen asleep against the "tomato cans" on their schedule, they could be undefeated right now. Cincy is also 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) in their last 5 games against the NFC North. I refuse to pick against the Vikes at home, but this is likely to be a more competitive game than a 6 point spread would have you believe.
My Pick: Bengals +6. Minnesota still wins 24-20.

Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -13.5
O/U: 44
I don't think the Pats are as good as people expected, but I certainly don't think they're as bad as everyone is saying they are right now. They've only lost on the road, and are looking to beat up on somebody this week to show that they are still capable of a deep playoff run. Carolina travels to Foxboro at the worst possible time, especially with DelHomme unlikely to play. Despite Carolina's 6th ranked pass D, this one could be out of hand by halftime.
My Pick: Patriots -13.5. New England makes a statement, 42-17.

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
I think Tampa's mid-season "success" was a result of teams' inability to really scout Josh Freeman. Now that there is significant tape on him within the confines of the Tampa offensive system, he hasn't been quite so spectacular. Plus the Jets have the league's best pass D to this point. Even with Kellen Clemens getting the start, I think the Jets will pull this one out.
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins with defense, 16-7.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: 0
O/U: 37
This is a tough one to pick, because I have to eliminate my Bills bias. They are 7-2 ATS in thier last 9 against KC, but I worry about their last-place run defense, which can be exploited at any time. The Pass D is #4 though (I wonder if there has ever been that big of a discrepancy between a defense's pass and run stats before...), and if they can get a few INTs and shut down the KC air attack (I'm being generous by calling it an attack...) they should be able to win the game.
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo wins in a hostile environment 17-13.

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
Once again I have to decide whether or not to go with my Denver picking strategy or my strong gut feeling. Denver was on the decline until they stepped up big the past two weeks, but I still don't think they're quite what everyone though they'd be after a 6-0 start. Indy is very good, and I expect Peyton to lead them to a win even though he'll have to do it against the league's second-best pass defense. Denver is only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 trips to Indy, and I expect Indy to make a statement with a lopsided victory. But I can't bet on it...
My Pick: Broncos +7. Indy still wins 23-20.

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 39.5
Baltimore needs a win badly if they're going to make the playoffs, and Detroit is starting Culpepper. Even though Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against Baltimore, I expect Flacco to get the offense moving against the league's 3rd-worst total defense and to have the Ravens looking like the team we saw in the first 3 weeks of the season.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore wins big 34-14.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 41
Green Bay's numbers are surprisingly solid...#1 in total defense, #6 in total offense. They've lost one crappy game (@Tampa), but their other 3 losses have been to very good teams. The same can be said of the Chicago Bears, whose worst loss was to a solid San Francisco team. Green Bay is making a playoff run, is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to the windy city, and should be able to beat the Bears for the second time this season. In this case, I really want to throw all the numbers out the window and say that a tough NFC North battle will be won by the home underdog. But in the face of insurmountable evidence to the contrary, I have to go with percentages, and there is much higher than a 50% chance that this will be a big Packers win.
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins in Chicago 24-16.

Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Redskins -1
O/U: 37.5
Hooray! It's the who-the-hell-cares bowl! Oakland sucks, and has been historically awful at home in December since 2005 (2-8 SU). Plus Washington has beaten 4 spreads in a row. So I'm picking solely based on the trends. We'll see how it works out, though I am worried that the Skins haven't beaten a spread as a favorite all year long.
My Pick: Redskins -1. Washington wins 13-10.

St. Louis Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -13
O/U: 41
Who would have thought that a team that began 0-6 would end up as a 13-point favorite by week 14? I'm tempted to pick against the big spread, knowing full well that the Rams can stay in this game. I worry, though, that Young is tough enough to defend that he could lead his team to a lot of points against a bad defense and that the Titans want to show that last week was the only obstacle they'll trip over as they roll to a 9-7 final record. Has anyone ever said "roll to a 9-7 record" before? I doubt it. All in all, I just can't give a team that started 0-6 a 13-point cushion. Too much can go wrong.
My Pick: Rams +13. Titans still win 24-13.

San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 48.5
As odd as this may sound, I'd be more tempted to pick the Cowboys if this game was being played in San Diego. First of all, they have to deal with local fans and media who think this team is destined for another collapse. That can't be helpful to their mental preparation, and I worry that some of them are actively thinking about it, which makes it even worse. Secondly, San Diego has been playing so well that, at some point, they are due for a letdown. The nature of being cooped up together in a hotel on the road helps teams facing a letdown to remain focused on the next game. In this case, I think that will be enough to keep the Chargers on the winning track and headed for a first-round playoff bye.
My Pick: Chargers +2.5. San Diego wins outright 24-23.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -1
O/U: 44.5
I don't know why, but when two NFC east foes meet up toward the end of the season with a spread of less than 3, I always feel as though I should just flip a coin. Especially when Philly's involved. Last year, they came out of nowhere and ended up in the NFC title game. Yet the Giants were the better team all regular season long. This year, Philly has been better, yet the G-men need wins to make a playoff surge and Philly still needs to win games to overtake Dallas. I honestly have no strong opinion on this game. Philly won big last week, which may mean they'll falter this week. Then again, they beat the Giants pretty handily at home, so why wouldn't they be able to do it again on the road? And yet a third nugget to throw in the mix: New York still hasn't gotten payback on the Eagles for knocking them out of the playoffs last year. Philly is also 0-2 as an underdog this season. The only thing I have any opinion on is the score, which has been low 11 of the last 13 times they've played in NY (under 11-2), which suggests that the Giants may be able to stop Philly from connecting on the big play, which would limit them offensively.
My Pick: Giants -1. They need it more. New York wins 23-16.


Monday, December 14th:

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Cardinals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Yes, the 49ers beat them earlier in the year. But that was a long time ago, and now the Cardinals are looking quite good again. They've also been a powerhouse on the road this year, a complete role reversal from last season, and have only lost once ATS away from the birdhouse all year (@STL). San Fran has progrssively gotten worse as teams have figured out how to beat them, and they're no longer in contention for a playoff spot unless they beat the Cards and then win out, which is very unlikely. The NFC West race should end this weekend.
My Pick: Cardinals -3.5. Arizona wins 31-10.