NFL Week Fifteen Recap (w/ Playoff Contingencies)

Overall SU: 148-76 (10-6 wk 15)
Week 15 ATS: 6-8-2
Overall ATS: 107-113-4

Still Perfect
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 35-31
The Jaguars put up a great fight, but the Colts are an elite team. Manning played well again and the Colts D did just enough. The Colts playoff scenario is simple...they're #1. They've clinched homefield. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Indy. The Jaguars are one of 6 teams at 7-7, and you have to assume that at least one of those teams will win its final 2 games. And it is very unlikely that both teams at 8-6 will lose their last 2 to fall to 8-8. In other words, the Jags will have to win out to have a playoff shot. It starts in New England, and I don't think they will win. But if a miracle occurs and they pull it off, they get the Browns in week 17, and could force some tiebreakers into effect. The Jags hold tiebreakers over the Jets, Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore, Denver, and Tennessee. But of course the Ravens and Broncos would have to lose once to be dropped back down into a tie with the Jags. If it came down to the Jags and Fins, Miami would have the tiebreaker due to last week's head-to-head win. We'll know more after this week, as the Jags go to NE, the Ravens go to PIT, and the Broncos go to PHI. The Jags would drop out of the running with a loss, but the door for all of the teams at 7-7 would swing wide open if the Broncos and/or Ravens lose. And with both having easy games in week 17, it could be the last chance for that door to open.

You Never Know in the NFL...
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Result: Cowboys 24-17
It has been a long time since the Saints were held under 20 points. And it is amazing that it was the Cowboys who pulled it off. I didn't think Ware would play as of Thursday, and he turned out to be a huge factor. Dallas' problem isn't getting one win in December, though. It is sustaining solid play throughout the month. They have two more games to go...even one more loss would mean another sub-.500 December. The Saints are in, and with one more win they'll wrap up home field advantage. Tampa's on the horizon, so it should happen. If they lose out and the Vikings win out, Minny would get the spot. Dallas controls its own destiny, but again, they're awful in December. The Redskins were embarassed this week, and should come out with something to prove next week. The Cowboys then finish with Philly. A win would give them not only a playoff birth, but the NFC East crown. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Packers and Giants hold tiebreakers over them. So in the event that Dallas loses once and the Giants win out, it is the Cowboys who will be watching the playoffs on TV.

Bye, Bye Lovie
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Result: Ravens 31-7
The Ravens made a statement, just as I thought they would. A solid win for them as they move toward the playoffs. If they can win out, they're in. If Cincy loses out, they could still win the AFC North, though it is unlikely. Baltimore is probably looking at the 5-seed, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos, with whom they are currently tied. They also hold tiebreakers over everyone but the Jags (who play @ the Pats this week...) so even with a loss, their playoff future looks pretty secure.

Whatever...
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
Result: Browns 41-34
KC put up a good fight, and the Browns were somehow involved in another offensive battle against a crappy team. Neither has any postseason hopes, but both will have a chance to play spoiler. KC gets the Broncos in week 17, and Denver could be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Chiefs if they lose to Philly this week. Cleveland gets a shot at the Jags in week 17, and if they beat the Pats this week, a loss to the Browns would kill their playoff dreams.

Philly Stakes San Fran
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Result: Eagles 27-13
San Fran has officially been eliminated from contention in the NFC, but if you look back at their schedule, they have had a pretty good year. They almost beat the Vikings, they swept the NFC West's playoff team the Cardinals, and they've been very competitive against solid teams. There is plenty to look forward to for next year in San Fran. Philly is in for the playoffs, but there is still plenty to shoot for. If the Vikings falter, Philly could still get a bye. They're only one back, and they hold the tiebreaker. They could also lose the NFC East title with a loss @ Dallas and be forced into a wild card slot. Plenty of movement is possible for Philly...possible seeds range from #2 to #6!

Apathy Despite Playoff Hopes?
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Result: Texans 16-13
Why wouldn't Houston come out with passion when they still have a shot at the playoffs? Oh well. The Rams are out, but played with much more heart than they did last week, and almost got the upset. To win out, the Texans have to beat Miami, which would eliminate one competitor. They would be beaten on tiebreakers by the Ravens, Jets and Jags, and would need them to lose. The only team they can really get past is Tennessee. There is a shot, but they need a ton of help. Don't expect them to make the postseason.

Still Alive
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Result: Titans 27-24 (ot)
Both of these teams remain alive for playoff berths, though it doesn't look good for the Titans. Tennessee only holds a tiebreaker over Miami, and would need the Ravens and Broncos to lose out to have a shot. Miami holds tiebreakers over the Jets and and Jags, and would have to beat the Steelers to have a shot at the playoffs anyway. So they'll only need to worry about the Ravens and Broncos. If Denver loses to KC, Miami will get in over them. If the Broncos lose to Philly and beat KC, or if the Ravens lose only once, more tiebreakers will come into play, and I'd rather wait until we get a clearer picture of what is happening in the AFC before I go into figuring out strength of victory and other weird tiebreaker stats.

Defensive Battle
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Result: Falcons 10-7
This game turned out just like I thought it would, though I didn't realize it would take the Falcons quite so long to finally find the endzone. Atlanta holds no tiebreakers and is out of the playoffs, which is tough after such a great start. Injuries really killed their season. The Jets still have a shot, but a very tough road ahead, as they'll have to beat the Colts and Bengals to earn a playoff spot. Even then they'll need help. They hold tiebreakers over PIT, HOU, BAL and TEN, but would lose out to DEN, MIA or JAX in the event of a tie.

Talk about Limping into the Playoffs...
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -12. Arizona wins 41-17.
Result: Cards 31-24
Arizona has been playing awful lately. Rather than gaining confidence from last year's run and playing great football, the Cards seem to be overconfident, lacking in intensity, and content with backing into the playoffs. Yeah, they won, but it wasn't pretty. Arizona is very likely the #4 seed, though they could go as high as #2 if Philly and Minnesota lose their remaining games.

Still Not Dominating...
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Result: Pats 17-10
New England finally got that elusive first road win, yet Brady didn't look himself and the Pats have really not been playing football at the level we have come to expect from them. When they began blowing teams out mid-season, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the AFC Byes would go to Indy and New England. Not anymore. San Diego has come on strong, and will likely have the first week of the playoffs off. If San Diego loses its last two and NE wins out, the Pats will get the bye based on common opponents, with that stat coming down to San Diego's loss to Tennessee. They're tied in common opponents right now (2-2 each), but the Pats beat the Titans and the Chargers would have to lose to Tennessee to open the door for New England to get the bye. Again, not likely. Even if San Diego loses to the Titans, they finish up with Washington.

Hahahahaha
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Result: Raiders 20-19
I am very mad that I picked Denver. I truly thought I picked Oakland until I looked at the blog this morning. Check out my rationale...it was all positive for Oakland, and then I changed the pick at the last minute because Frye was the starting QB. I'm a dumbass. Anyway, the Broncos have faltered at the wrong time, and could miss the playoffs. Their Super Bowl is this week in Philly, because if they lose, they could be overtaken by one or more of the 7-7 teams by season's end. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have the tiebreaker over them, but a tie with Houston or Tennessee would favor Denver. They lost to Baltimore heads up, so the Ravens would need to lose twice for Denver to beat them out. If they're tied up with Miami or the Jets, it would come down to strength of victory. Denver has some solid wins, but I'm not going to officially figure that stat out until next week when there will be a clearer picture of the AFC Playoff race.

Heart of a Champion
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Result: Chargers 27-24
This game's title applies to both teams. To the Bengals for hanging with the Chargers the whole game, and to the Chargers for rising to the occasion and playing with great intensity to combat the Bengals' emotion. By far the best, most heartfelt Ochocinco touchdown celebration ever. A simple show of overwhelming emotion that fans of both teams can appreciate. These teams will both be in the playoffs, and may meet again soon with much more on the line. San Diego would have to lose out to relinquish the 2-seed, and Cincy would have to lose out to relinquish the division lead and fall back into a 9-7 tiebreaker scenario with half of the AFC. If they lose this week, I will figure out those tiebreakers. But they play Kansas City, and should wrap up the division.

Give Up Time?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Result: Buccaneers 24-7
Seattle should be embarassed. Tampa wanted a second win and Seattle looked like their minds were already on the offseason. They'll get yelled at this week and may come out with a little more intensity, but probably still won't win if their hearts aren't truly in it anymore.

Called It
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Result: Steelers 37-36
Green Bay is very beatable. Pittsburgh isn't ready to give up their slim playoff hopes just yet, but even a win streak to end the year is likely too little, too late. A Denver stumble would open the door, but the Steelers would still have to beat out any other 9-7 team that rises to the occasion. They have the tiebreaker on TEN, and would eliminate MIA by beating them in week 17. But the Jets would get in over PIT if they win out, as would JAX. HOU comes down to common opponents, which Houston wins thanks to PIT's loss to Oakland. So Pittsburgh fans need the Steelers to win out and will need NYJ, JAX, DEN and HOU to lose. Sounds crazy, but all 4 play a tough team or two, and I'd say the toughest part of this scenario will be Pittsburgh winning out.

Stumbling Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Result: Panthers 26-7
How can Peterson not be working? He's the best tool in the chest, and for some reason he's been on the fritz. It's like the Vikings are trying to give games away at this point. During the Panthers game, AP was thrown to on a quick screen and dropped it. If you've ever seen Brett Favre play, you know he was destined to give Peterson another shot. It came immediately. Another screen. Another drop. JUST AWFUL. And Bryant Mckinnie was useless against Peppers all game long. I think his benching will be a wake up call to him, but who knows? Minnesota can't dawdle, as another loss could lose them a bye week. And when your QB is 86 years old, a bye week is kinda important. Philly would have to win out and Minnesota would have to lose one game. The Vikings do, however, still have a shot at homefield advantage by winning out, but New Orleans is highly unlikely to lose to BOTH the Bucs and Panthers.

Staying Alive
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Result: Giants 45-12
Yes, the Redskins should be embarassed. But what I took away from this game is that the Giants defense is finally ready to step up. Or at least they were for one game. They'll need to keep up that intensity if this team is to make the playoffs, as they'll likely need to win out. If Dallas loses once and the G-men win out, New York is in. If Dallas loses twice (unlikely...they play the Skins...), the Giants can lose to Minnesota in week 17 and still get in. If the Cowboys win out, the Giants can still overtake the Packers with 2 wins and a Packers loss, as the Giants hold the common opponents tiebreaker.

My Playoff Predictions as of week 15:
AFC: 1-Colts, 2-Chargers, 3-Bengals, 4-Pats, 5-Ravens, 6-Steelers
NFC: 1-Saints, 2-Eagles, 3-Vikings, 4-Cardinals, 5-Packers, 6-Giants