NFL Week Sixteen Recap and Playoff Projections

Overall SU: 159-81 (11-5 wk 16)
Week 16 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 115-121-4

Too Good to be True
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Result: Chargers 42-17
Tennessee had a great run, but ultimately couldn't recover from its terrible start. The Chargers seem to be the team to beat right now in the AFC, and since they won't have to see the Colts until championship weekend, I expect them to make it at least that far. Unless the rest kills their chemistry.

Good win...
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Result: Falcons 31-3
The Bills would have been in this game a bit more had the crazy play at the end of the first half held up for a TD. Instead Atlanta ran train on them in the second. Oh well. Neither team is going to the playoffs.

As Expected
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Result: Packers 48-10
The Seahawks are extraordinarily blow-out-able this year. Green Bay clinched a playoff spot with the win. If they lose and Dallas beats Philly, they'll be the 6-seed. Otherwise, they're the 5. Strangely enough (this is not the only such matchup this week, hence it is strange) the Packers will likely visit Arizona two weeks in a row, as Green Bay is likely the 5 seed and Arizona likely the 4. Unless the Vikings lose to the Giants and are passed by Arizona (with a win) and Philly (with a win), in which case Green Bay (as a 5) would visit Minny (as a 4).

Finally Eliminated!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Result: Patriots 35-7
I am aware that they're not "technically" done, but its good enough for me. I never thought the Jags deserved a playoff spot. If you disagree, look at their schedule. They have 8 wins...all over crappy teams (HOU counts as crappy unless they make the playoffs). New England has locked up the division, but there's no telling whether or not they'll be the 3 or 4 seed. If they win @HOU (NE bad on road, HOU playing for their playoff life) and Cincy loses (@NYJ, also playing for playoff life), NE will be the 3. If Cincy wins and NE loses, they're the 4. If they're tied, it comes down to strength of victory, which is a pain in the butt to figure out. But it looks like New England would have the edge there depending on week 17 results. Who they'd play is tough to tell, too. The 5 and 6 are still up for grabs. BAL, NYJ, DEN, and PIT are the most likely opponents, but it is possible that this could turn into a rematch of week 17 if HOU wins, gets a ton of help to get the 6-seed, and sees the Jets beat the Bengals, they'd probably go to New England for the wild card round. But it's far less likely than a Packers-Cards rematch.

Deservedly Done
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Result: Panthers 41-9
How can you play that poorly with everything on the line? Just awful. They deserve to be done.

Always a great series
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Result: Steelers 23-20
These teams always play each other so tough...no surprise that they'd split two games and have identical combined scores (each won by 3). Baltimore controls its destiny, and will be in with a win over Oakland. They could play the Pats or Bengals, depending on what happens in week 17. I'd imagine they'd rather play the Pats, having already lost twice to Cincy. Pittsburgh can still get in, too, but needs to win and see 2 of the following occur: the Jets fall to the Bengals, the Texans fall to the Pats, the Ravens lose to the Raiders.

Dumbasses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Result: Bucs 20-17 (ot)
They had the spread beaten at halftime and blew it. Awful. They've backed into the 1-seed, and I worry about their playoff chances. They just don't look as sharp as they did earlier in the year.

Can't Predict Heart
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Result: Texans 27-20
The Texans just wanted it more. They came out hot, and Miami had no answer. The Fins are pretty much done. Houston can get in with a win and a combo of 2 of the following: Jets lose, Broncos Lose, Ravens Lose. They can be the 5 or 6 seed, depending on what happens in week 17, and would play either the Bengals or Pats.

No Consequence
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Result: Browns 23-9
This game didn't really matter at all, except where pride is concerned. And when the Raiders get beat, they tend to come back strong the next week. So the Ravens better be careful.

Too Close...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
Result: Bengals 17-10
Cincy needed to make more of a statement. I have no idea what to expect from them in the playoffs. They can be the 3 or 4 seed depending on what happens this week, and could play any of the AFC's wild-card-eligible teams.

I hate when I jump off the bandwagon too quick
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-10
So Arizona finally decided to play. Good to know for future reference. As mentioned in the Packers recap, they'll more likely than not host Green Bay two weeks in a row. Otherwise, they'll see the loser of the Dallas/Philly game come to town.

Doesn't Matter
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
Result: San Fran 20-6
At halftime this looked like a good pick. Then the 49ers started scoring.

First loss (and last?)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Result: Jets 29-15
They pulled Peyton too soon...but if they win the Super Bowl, it was the right call. Otherwise it will be second guessed for a long time. Indy is the 1-seed. New York gets in with a win, and would be the 5 seed. They could play either the Pats or Bengals, pending this week's results.

Huge Win...Bigger Loss
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Result: Eagles 30-27
Philly can still be the 2, 5, or 6-seed. If they win, they'll get the bye and the division title. If they lose and Green Bay Wins, Dallas takes the division and Philly falls to the 6. If they lose and Green Bay loses, they're the 5. Denver, on the other hand, would have controlled their playoff future with a win over Philly and KC coming to Mile High in week 17. Instead, they'll need to win and get help. A combo of 2 of the following must lose: PIT, NYJ, and BAL. If HOU and PIT win, Hou beats out PIT, and then DEN beats out HOU, so they could still pull it off with a Steelers win, but it would also require a Texans win. My guess is they're in trouble.

As I thought...
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Result: Cowboys 17-0
Good to see Washington put up a fight offensively. Dallas can still be the 2-seed with a win and losses by MIN and ARI. They'd be the 3 if they win and either Minny or Arizona wins, but not both. They'd be the 4 with a win and MIN/ARI wins. They'll be the 6 seed if they lose.

Awful Ending
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
Result: Bears 36-30 (ot)
Great game. But Minnesota's end-of-season skid has been awful. I really thought they'd contend for a Super Bowl spot, but they'll really need to get themselves back on track. A win and a Philly loss means they'll be the 2 seed. A win and a Philly win, or a PHI win and losses by both MIN and ARI would make them the 3 seed. They'll be the 4 if they lose and ARI wins, in which case they may play the Packers. Otherwise they'll either have a Bye or play Dallas.

My Prediction:

AFC: Jets lose, Ravens Win, Steelers win, Hou loses
1-Colts
2-Chargers
3-Pats
4-Bengals
5-Ravens
6-Steelers

NFC: PHI wins, ARI loses, MIN wins.
1-Saints
2-Eagles
3-Vikings
4-Cards
5-Packers
6-Cowboys