NFL Week 17 Preview

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -9
O/U: 47.5
Though the Giants no longer have anything to play for and will be without Brandon Jacobs, I still believe that they have enough pride not to just lay down and die. Minnesota has been playing very poorly, but they realize that a win still gives them a shot at the first round bye they desperately need to sort out some of their issues. I'd like to say that it will be a blowout, but Minnesota is 1-5 ATS against the Giants since 1986 and I really think New York will try to give them a game.
My Pick: Giants +9. Minnesota wins 30-23.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 41.5
Why such a close spread? Because despite blowing out the Bills last week, the Falcons are 0-4 ATS the last four times they've faced the Bucs. But they're still playing for pride, and I doubt they'll roll over and die. Which is what they'd have to do for the Bucs to stay within 3 points.
My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 24-20.

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -7
O/U: 40.5
Though there is nothing on the line, I expect Mike Singletary's team to play with as much pride as anyone in the league. The Rams may come out strong, but there is also a possibility that they'll just phone it in.
My Pick: 49ers -7. San Fran finsihes strong 20-10.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -8
O/U: 46
Hahahaha. Nothing like making my job easier. There is some question that the Pats and Bengals will "throw" games this week because they are guaranteed of a home game in the wild card round (3 or 4 seed) and would rather not see the Steelers make the postseason. They'll also be resting some players, in theory. But why would you want to lose to a team that might be the opponent you'll be forced to face again next week? You don't want them to have that confidence. I think the Pats will play to win. Despite how awful the Pats have been on the road, Houston has been a very up-and-down team. They were up last week, they should be down this week. I think I picked the Texans at 8-8 preseason...I'm sticking to it.
My Pick: Pats +8. New England wins outright 23-20.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -1.5
O/U: 37.5
Jacksonville still technically has an outside shot at the playoffs (if practically all of the teams in contention lose, as the Jags hold a lot of tiebreakers). Though I don't like them, the reason they have 7 wins is that they've been able to beat the lesser teams that they were supposed to beat, such as the Browns. Cleveland has been playing pretty well, but I see them having a letdown this week.
My Pick: Jags +1.5. Jacksonville wins 21-13.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: N/A
Again, the oddsmakers are making it too easy by over-reacting to which teams have a chance to rest players. Carolina is without Steve Smith, and backup QB Matt Moore, who has been solid, is pretty banged up. Even if Brees and the big guns play limited minutes, I doubt Carolina will win in blowout fashion. Plus the Saints have lost 2 in a row...it would be awfully nice for them to get back on the winning track before the playoffs. Plus the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at Carolina.
My Pick: Saints +7. New Orleans wins 35-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -7.5
O/U: N/A
Again...what? The Bills don't have enough offense to beat anybody by more than a touchdown, let alone the Colts. I'm a Bills fan, and as such I'll pick them to win, but this spread is nuts. Indy has a lot of pride, and would like to go out on a winning note, despite being 1-6 ATS in their last 7 season enders.
My Pick: Colts +7.5. Buffalo gets the win 17-13.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
The Bears should win, but may have a bit of a letdown after last week's huge win over the Vikings. So do I think there will be a letdown, or do I think that last week proves that the Bears play well when pride is on the line? The Lions are usually good in week 17 (6-2 ATS last 8), but without Stafford I wonder how much offense they can muster.
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago wins 28-16.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 46
Pittsburgh has everything to play for and Miami was effectively eliminated last week. As long as they aren't too preoccupied with what the Jets, Ravens, and Texans are doing, I think they'll win without much of a problem. Especially if Polamalu ends up playing.
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 30-17.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
The Cowboys have been playing very well the past two weeks, especially on defense. But the Eagles coming to town may just remind them of their recent December/January woes, especially against Philly. The Cowboys are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 at home against the Eagles, and Philly has a nice winning streak going against Dallas in games played in December or later. Both want to win, as the division is on the line and a first round bye may be at stake as well. But Dallas won last time, and I believe the Eagles are the better team. Which means they ought to return the favor. If Dallas wins, there is a scenario that would see this game played again next week, but its a longshot.
My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins 34-20.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -3
O/U: 44
Green Bay hasn't really beaten many good teams this year, but Arizona is only a good team half the time. They've been iffy at home, and may have a letdown after a big win last week. If Green Bay wins, they'll head back out to the desert (or stay there...) for a rematch next week. If the Cards win, the rematch is still a possibility. Neither team wants to give the other the confidence of knowing they can beat them, so both should be playing hard. I like the Cards, but they have been awfully inconsistent. Until I know that they can put it together for more than on game, I'm staying away from them.
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay forces the rematch with a 31-21 win.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 38
Denver has a ton to play for and the Chiefs have nothing on the line. But I have seen AFC West games go completely the opposite of what is expected many times in the past. You can never count out the Chiefs or Raiders, as every division game is a rivalry matchup with plenty on the line. I expect the Broncos to be surprised by the intensity of the Chiefs, and I think they'll have to come from behind to win a game that is much closer than it should be. Even with a win, though, they'll need help to make the playoffs. I don't think they'll get it.
My Pick: Chiefs +13. Denver can't blow them out twice, right? Denver 34-27.

Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 38
A Ravens win would get them in the playoffs, no questions asked. Though they have 7 losses, none are to bad teams. The worst team they've lost to is actually the Steelers, who just beat them last week and are far better than their 8-7 record reflects. Oakland tends to respond well to losses, but the Ravens have been too good against lousy teams for me to think this will be much of a matchup. The Ravens are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against Oakland, and the Raiders are 1-5 their last 6 week 17's.
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 31-10.

Washington Redskins @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 39.5
The Skins have been terrible the last 2 weeks, and San Diego is one of the best teams in the league right now. They may be resting players, but I still think they can beat the Skins. The starters should play for a little while to stay in rhythm, especially with 2 weeks off before their next game. If Rivers and the first-team offense play for a full half, they should put the game out of reach.
My Pick: Chargers -3.5 San Diego wins 20-13.

Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Titans -4.5
O/U: 44
Tennessee has been playing with great pride the entire second half of the season, and despite being out of the playoff hunt, I expect them to play hard. A few weeks ago I expected Seattle to put on a show for the home fans, and they were routed. So I'm not worried about home-field advantage. Seattle is very blow-out-able, and I think Tennessee will beat them soundly.
My Pick: Titans -4.5. Tennessee wins 34-17.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -10
O/U: 35
The Bengals have played well in big games all year, but are very beatable when they're feeling apathetic. For them, this isn't a big game. Ochocinco's not going to do much now that he's called out Revis, who I'd bet will guard him the whole game. But was Chad going to play much anyway? We'll see how much the starters rest, but the Cincy D is solid enough not to allow the Jets to run away with it like they did against Indy. I think the Jets will win, but Cincy better be careful. This is one of 3 games this week that could end up happening again on wild card weekend, and Cincy doesn't want to throw the game and allow the Jets to have all the confidence and momentum for a possible rematch next week.
My Pick: Bengals +10. The Jets still win 17-10.