NFL Week Fifteen Preview

Thursday, December 17th:

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
Even with Sorgi I think the Colts will beat the Jags. Peyton will play for a little, and will likely get them out to a nice lead. Then the question becomes whether or not they can hold on. The Jags did beat the spread against them last time, so I wouldn't expect a total blowout, but I think the Colts can handle a spread of 3.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.

Saturday, December 19th:

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
The last time the Saints were faced with a decent opponent who had a chance to break their streak at home, they crushed the Patriots. I expect them to come out with the same intensity this week. Dallas will need to put forth its best effort to even contend with the Saints, and with Demarcus Ware questionable, I'm not sure how the defense will hold up. If the Saints play well, they'll crush the Cowboys. If they play mediocre, the Cowboys will still have to play their best to keep it close. If I'm a Saint, I see this as our last obstacle to an undefeated season. In other words, I'd be playing my ass off. Let's hope the Saints players see it that way.
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.

Sunday, December 20th:

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
The Ravens need to keep winning to sneak into the playoffs, and I don't see the Bears as much of a hurdle. After blowing out the Lions last week, I expect the Ravens to keep doing what they're supposed to do by beating the sub-.500 teams on their schedule. Keep in mind that Baltimore has only lost to good teams this season...
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
This is just an awful game. I can't imagine Chiefs and Browns fans will even want to watch this one. The problem with a game between 2 crap teams late in the season is that you never know if they'll come out with intensity or will come out sluggish because there isn't a whole lot to play for. These teams have played over the total all 3 meetings, and have the 30th and 31st ranked defenses in the league (Cleveland is worse, in case you were curious), so I'm going with a high scoring total. As for the pick itself...last week I remembered an old, very strange strategy for picking late season games that I don't care about. If team A beats team B, and team B beats team C, Team C has a tendency to beat Team A, even though it doesn't logically follow. That's the theory I'm trying here. Cleveland beat the Bills and the Bills beat KC...so it seems as though Cleveland should beat KC as well. My theory suggests otherwise.
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Here's a surprise for you...the 49ers are 9-3-1 ATS this season, and have dropped only 1 game ATS on the road (a pick 'em game in Seattle). San Fran has no playoff hopes with a loss, and if Philly wins and the Cowboys lose, which is likely, they'll have a 2-game lead in the division with 2 to play, and all the drama could be gone before the week 17 showdown between the Boys and Iggles. How often have you known the NFC East to be drama free in week 17? I think the situation will mean a close game, but with the newfound power running of Weaver, I think the Eagles are just too strong for San Fran. Plus the drama will still have a chance to build if Philly loses to Denver in week 16, which seems more likely than losing to San Fran.
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.

Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
Houston still has playoff hopes, albeit slim. If they win out, they can get in at 9-7 with a little help. So I can only imagine they'll be at the top of their game for the remainder of the season. St. Louis looked as though they had completely given up last week, and although I'm sure they'll get yelled at in practice, I'm not sure it can make them play with any more heart. Plus Boller has been ill, which could give the start to Keith Null. Which would make the St. Louis offense Null. Perfect name for a 3rd string QB!
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Both of these teams are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect this to be a great, hard-fought game. I think this will be the first game where Ronnie Brown's absence hurts the Dolphins offense enough that they can't overcome it. The Titans are #7 in the league against the run, and when a solid run defense plays angry, they are very tough to beat without trickery. If the Fins use a solid amount of Pat White (6+plays) in the wildcat, it might work. But for some reason I don't think that will be in their gameplan. Young's hamstring injury was classified as "mild", and I'll bet he can play in what amounts to the biggest game of the season for the Titans (at this point, each successive must-win is the biggest game of the year). If not, Collins is more than capable of stepping in, and has had a lot of reps in practice this week with Young sidelined. Keep in mind that the Young injury has forced Miami to gameplan for two very different offensive schemes, which limits the amount of time the team is able to work on-field to stop each one. What this game ultimately comes down to is the fact that I trust the Titans more in a must-win situation.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
Still no word on Ryan or Turner, so this will be tough to call. Both teams can technically still get in the playoffs, although Atlanta needs to win out and get a TON of help. In other words, I expect both teams to be playing with lots of heart. My problem is that, even with Sanchez back, I think the Jets offense will struggle against the Falcons D. I know I suggested that the Falcons D would keep them in the game 2 weeks ago against Philly, and that didn't happen, but the Jets O is a different animal. Even without Ryan and Turner, I think the Falcons can win this game, based on the level of play they showed last week against New Orleans. So hopefully they come out wanting to win.
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
Arizona's road stumble last week was a single occurrence, not a trend. They've been stellar on the road all year, and I imagine that will continue this week. Because they failed to beat the 49ers, a win this week won't clinch unless the 49ers lose. Which means that Arizona can't play lackadaisically anymore...they need two more wins to clinch the division for sure, and Detroit needs to be one of them. Plus Detroit has a crappy defense and Warner should shred it.
My Pick: Cardinals +12. Arizona wins 41-17.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
The Bills nearly beat the Pats in Foxboro, but that was in week one, when Brady was still getting used to the game again after a long absence. He's well entrenched now, and I can't imagine he'll struggle too much against Buffalo given the scope of this game. The Pats could legitimitely lose the division lead and miss the playoffs if they can't wrap things up against bad teams down the stretch. Buffalo has nowhere to go, and although they would love to put on a good show at home against the Pats, their hearts may not be in it. I have seen the Pats blow out the Bills enough times over the last few years to know that it is a very likely outcome, especially when the Pats are angry. Look for Moss to step up this week in the face of controversy and the Pats to win big.
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Denver. Except for one bad stretch earlier in the year, Oakland has come back strong from every bad loss. They've also played a very tough schedule, and have beaten some solid teams. Despite a 20-point loss to Denver earlier in the year, I expect the Raiders to come out with a purpose. Oh wait...their starting quarterback is who? Charlie Frye? Nevermind.
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
First of all best wishes are in order to the entire Bengals family following the loss of one of their own. Yet it is still my job to dissect the situation to determine how it will affect them. Certainly it will mean less practice time and a lot of emotional strain. But with the game on the road and the team forced to spend significantly more time together, I think this situation could rally them together in a "win one for Chris" sort of way. The Bengals have been a very emotional team all year, playing their best football in the biggest games. Now they've got a huge game and a ton of incentive to win. I say this situation helps them, but if they get blown out, the reason will be evident.
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
Seattle is a tough place to play, but can I really give 7 points to a team that has been so awful all year long? Tampa beat Green Bay, so we know they have some talent. As teams have figured out Freeman, though, the Bucs offense has become very stoppable. And the defense isn't very good either. If the Bucs beat the spread, I'll bet they win outright. I won't be totally shocked if it happens, as the Seahawks may very well have given up already, but the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Seattle. I think the homefield advantage will mean a lot, and if the Seahawks show up at all, I expect them to dominate.
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
Green Bay hasn't beaten any really great teams, but the Steelers have long since dropped off the list of teams considered "great". Pittsburgh's offense has been awful, and Green Bay has the #2 ranked defense in the league. Polamalu's absence means that Rodgers may have a chance to pick apart the Steeler D, but Green Bay has an awful O-line, so you never know if he'll have any time to throw the ball. For me, this one boils down to whether or not I trust the Steelers enough to pick them right now. Green Bay should find a way in the playoffs even with a loss, and although everyone says the Steelers are done, they aren't yet mathematically eliminated. If they win out and get a bunch of help, they could still be a playoff team. I expect them to play hard, especially at home, and I just don't feel comfortable picking the Packers to beat the tough, hard-nosed Steelers one week after outlasting the tough, hard-nosed Bears (despite them being a little "softer" than in years past).
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
The Vikings are trying to wrap up the bye so they can start resting QB Strom Thurmond so that he'll be somewhat fresh for the postseason. Carolina is done, and although they'd love to make the fans happy with a home win, the Vikings are really, really good. Carolina has a good pass D and a crappy run D...so what do you think will happen? AP will run all over them. To beat the Vikings you need defensive balance. And Delhomme is still questionable, which means the Vikings D will have a field day against Matt Moore. Who? Exactly.
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.

Monday, December 21st:

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
The Skins kept it close last time, but with the Giants needing a win to avoid certain playoff elimination, they're going to be playing with a lot of intensity. Green Bay is almost certain to get one wildcard spot, as they'll finish at least 10-6 unless they somehow blow 3 straight after losing only 4 to this point. Which means that the Giants are chasing whoever doesn't win the NFC East for the final wildcard spot. They hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, so if they can win out and watch Dallas drop at least 1 more game (highly likely) or if the Giants lose one more and watch Dallas lose twice (far less likely), then they could still get in. But that one potential loss needs to be reserved for week 17 in Minnesota, just in case, as that's the best team left on the Giants' schedule. A loss to Washington would be enough for me to declare them officially dead.
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.