Week Fifteen Preview

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -9.5
O/U: 44.5
Both teams will be treating this game as a must win, but I still don't think it'll be that close. Alex Smith put up 40 points last week - There's no way the 49ers will keep the offense chugging along at that pace. While their offense struggles, their defense will be finding out that they aren't strong enough to keep up with the Chargers pass game. This combination of offensive and defensive ineptitude should result in a comfortable Chargers win.
My Pick: Chargers -9.5. San Diego rolls 33-16.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -1.5
O/U: 43.5
The Ravens didn't look very good last week against the Texans, blowing a huge lead and winning in overtime against a Houston team that has been struggling defensively. If the Ravens secondary allows Brees to pick them apart the way Schaub did, it'll be a long afternoon in Baltimore. The Saints have been getting better and better, and could make some noise in the playoffs once again. The way the NFC South title has historically bounced around, however, I think it's the Falcons' year to take down the division. Whether or not the Falcons win their head-to-head match-up with the Saints next week remains to be seen - but I think it's likely that they'll be two games ahead after this weekend, as Baltimore's defense will undoubtedly rebound from a poor showing last Monday night.
My Pick: Ravens -1.5. Baltimore wins 20-17.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Panthers -2.5
O/U: 38
Like the rest of America, I don't care about this game at all...I'd pick the Panthers, but it seems ridiculous that they'd be favored, at 1-12, to beat a team that put up 43 points last week. So I have to go against them, even though the Cards play like idiots every time they venture to the East Coast.
My Pick: Cards +2.5. Arizona wins 23-20.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Bengals -1.5
O/U: 40
It's the "who cares" bowl! The Bengals stink - unless they're playing the Ravens, they'll lose. Then again, the Ravens used to be the Browns...
My Pick: Bengals -1.5. Cincy wins 23-20.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -5.5
O/U: 46
The Cowboys are playing for pride, and have been ever since Jason Garrett became their surprisingly effective coach. The Redskins have some major issues, and I just don't think they care as much as the Cowboys do right now. Six weeks ago I never thought I'd construct such a sentence...when they were at the peak of their despair, the Cowboys cared less than every other team in football. At any level.
My Pick: Cowboys -5.5. Dallas wins 27-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 48.5
Peyton Manning's back is up against the wall...A loss all but dooms his season. What do you think will happen?
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy shows why they've won the AFC South 6 of the last 7 years with a 34-14 drubbing of the Jags.

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -5.5
O/U: 40
My former radio show producer - An enormous Bills fan - Predicted 4 Buffalo wins this season, noting that Miami would be one of them. Who am I to disagree?
My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo wins outright 17-13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 46
The Eagles played a very complete game against the Giants a few weeks ago...I'm not sure they can live up to that standard again. New York is solid, but inconsistent. I worry about them more in games against lesser opposition, however, than I do when emotions are high and there is a great deal at stake. This game falls into the latter category. Plus, all else equal, NFC East teams tend to split their season series.
My Pick: Giants -2.5. NY wins 23-20.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
If Croyle plays again, the Chiefs could be in trouble. I think Cassel will be back, though, and after last week's embarrassment the Chiefs will be ready to play. Cassel can be 80% and still win...it's having the appearance of a decent pass game that frees up the KC running backs, which is where all of their offense comes from anyway.
My Pick: Chiefs win 24-13.

DETROIT LIONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -6
O/U: 43
Detroit just beat Green Bay...that's the better of the "Bays"...I think Tampa will win, as they haven't lost to any bad teams yet this season, but I don't think it'll be by 6. If Stanton plays instead of Hill, though, expect Tampa to have a better shot at beating the spread.
My Pick: Lions +6. Bucs win 20-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -1.5
O/U: 47.5
The Texans played pretty well against the Ravens last week, and the Titans are still a mess. Collins gives them a shot to win, but I'm not sure that defense will be able to stop Schaub. The Ravens couldn't stop them...do you really think the Titans can?
My Pick: Texans +1.5. Houston wins 34-23.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 45
If this isn't a blowout the Falcons should be ashamed of themselves.
My Pick: Falcons -6. Atlanta rolls 34-10.

DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Raiders -6.5
O/U: 43
Denver is in disrepair - but that's the sort of team the Raiders generally find a way to lose to. I hate to do this, but I've learned from 3 seasons of Broncos ridiculousness. If it looks like the Broncos have no shot, they'll probably win.
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. Denver wins outright 23-20.

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -6
O/U: 36
Easy pick. The Steelers are good and the Jets have been struggling. But I wouldn't give ANY team 6 points when playing a Rex Ryan-coached squad coming off of two losses.
My Pick: Jets +6. New York wins outright 19-17.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
Even if Rodgers plays, these Pats look eerily similar to the really good Pats from a few years ago, in that they're the top scoring team in the NFL and seem to be blowing everyone out. It took them some time to hit their stride, but I think they're a strong Super Bowl contender at this point in the season. Green Bay is dangerously close to missing the playoffs...if Rodgers plays they have a shot; if Flynn plays they'll be blown out.
My Pick: Pats win 30-17.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
Three line-less games in one week? This is absurd. Minnesota will be playing their first outdoor home game in a very long time, and they're playing a defense-and-rushing-minded Bears squad that is not only good, but knows how to play in the elements. Plus they might be starting someone I've never heard of at QB. That's even worse than starting Tarvaris Jackson!
My Pick: Bears 21-6.