Week Fourteen Preview

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 45
Tennessee is a mess right now, and I don't see the Colts dropping to 6-7. Peyton has to lead his team to four straight wins to have a legitimate shot of getting into the playoffs, and if you've ever seen Peyton play, you know he's capable of anything. It's been a rough year, but I expect them to fight and claw til the very end.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-10.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Bills -1
O/U: 39.5
Both of these teams have been playing solid football. Cleveland beat Miami and New England, and nearly tied the Jets before Holmes broke a tackle to win it late in OT. Buffalo should respond from a poor performance in Minnesota. Despite their strength against the AFC East, I think the Bills will play harder with a bounce-back mentality than the Browns will coming off a big win. It'd also be funny if the Bills were the one team in the AFC East that the Browns couldn't compete with...
My Pick: Bills -1. Buffalo wins 17-10.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Falcons -7
O/U: 42.5
Yes, the Falcons had a bit of a hiccup last week against a Tampa team that hasn't really beaten anyone. But Atlanta still pulled it out in the end, which is what matters. They've been quite consistent, and haven't lost to any craptastic teams all season long. I don't expect them to start now.
My Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta wins 27-13.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 46
Don't the oddsmakers remember the last time these teams met? Detroit only lost by two, and that was at Lambeau. The Lions will be ready to play, but can Drew Stanton run the offense if Matt Stafford and Shaun Hill are both out? He certainly has all the tools to succeed...The Packers beat up on the 49ers last week, but I don't think they'll slack off just because they won big - Green Bay remembers how close the Lions came to beating them last time, and the Packers, at 8-4, need wins to ensure a postseason spot. They finish with the Pats, Giants, and Bears, so this game is virtually a must-win.
My Pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay wins 28-20.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -3.5
O/U: 43
The Raiders have to travel all the way across the country, and they've only won 2 road games all year (and have played awful east of the Mississippi River - @PIT and @TEN) but after beating the Chargers twice, I think they're more legit than the Jags. Then again, I've been under-rating Jacksonville all year, and they keep biting me...
My Pick: Jaguars -3.5. Jacksonville wins 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 43
The Vikings have a lot of banged up bodies, including Favre. They will come out strong because it's a must-win for them, but I just don't know if they'll be able to get it done. If Brett tries to play, it'll either be a disaster or one of his brilliant "signature" performances. I'd bet on him playing, but he just doesn't seem to have the same magic this season...
My Pick: Giants -2.5. New York wins 23-20.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -8.5
O/U: 39.5
This seems like one of those games when the Bengals will step up and lose by a lot less than everyone thinks...they've had some issues, but they're really not as bad as their record indicates - they just can't seem to put it all together and win games. Heck, they beat the Ravens earlier in the year! Pittsburgh is too strong, and I'm sure they'll get the win - I just don't know if they'll win by 8 1/2...
My Pick: Steelers -8.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Bucs -1.5
O/U: 41
Wow...there are a lot of mental issues with this game, making it insanely hard to predict. The Skins have been dealing with a lot of B.S. surrounding Haynesworth, so they may not be completely focused. Their offense has also looked pretty bad since Shanahan and McNabb had their little issue before the bye week. Then again, they're an underdog at home to the Bucs, which might motivate them. The Bucs haven't really beaten anyone good, but thankfully for Tampa fans, Washington doesn't fall into that category...In the end, my analysis rests not on the fact that Tampa hasn't beat anyone solid, but on the fact that they haven't lost to anyone who stinks. And right now, Washington stinks.
My Pick: Bucs -1.5. Tampa wins 23-20.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -9
O/U: 47
The Rams have shown some excellent fight this season, but New Orleans has been playing pretty well as of late. The X-factor is that this is New Orleans' only home game in a 5 week stretch (2 away, 1 home, then 2 away), so I imagine they'd like to show off for their fantastic fans...this one could get ugly in a hurry!
My Pick: Saints -9. New orleans wins 45-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 41.5
Alex Smith is starting at QB for the 49ers...how in the world are they favored by 5.5!? I know Seattle is better at home than on the road, but they've beaten the Bears and Cards away from Qwest field...I certainly think they can take down the 49ers. I'm sure San Fran wants payback for the Seahawks' domination of them in week one, but even a positive mental focus doesn't seem to be helping San Fran in 2010.
My Pick: Seahawks +5.5. Seattle wins outright 23-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41
The Pats won't look as good against the Bears as they did on Monday Night against the Jets, but that doesn't mean they can't win. The short week of preparation will hurt the Pats' ability to break through a very good defense that is a bit different from the stellar defense they ripped apart last week, and I'm not sure if the Pats will be able to shut down Cutler the same way they shut down Sanchez.
My Pick: Bears +3. Chicago wins 20-17.

DENVER BRONCOS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 42.5
The Cowboys and Vikings have each been better since firing their respective head coaches. I don't think Denver will respond the same way those other teams did. Arizona is awful, but they certainly have the ability to win in their own building. It seems insane to me that Denver is so highly favored in this situation.
My Pick: Cardinals +5.5. Arizona wins outright 23-17.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 40
Rex Ryan doesn't take embarassment lightly. Even though Miami will be trying to bounce back from a bad home loss to the Browns, the Jets' bounce back ability is second to none. They'll crush the fins.
My Pick: Jets -5. New York rolls 31-13.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 46.5
Kansas City is for real, but with Cassel coming back from an appendectomy, I'm not sure what they'll have to offer on offense. I expect San Diego to come out firing after a bad home loss to Oakland, and I don't know that KC can keep up.
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 26-17.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Eagles -3.5
O/U: 50.5
Dallas has gotten better, but Philly looks awfully good. I can't imagine the Cowboys will have an answer for Vick, and Kitna is due to have a bad game.
My Pick: Eagles -3.5. Philly wins 31-21.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 45.5
Had Baltimore beaten the Steelers, I'd have expected Houston to have a chance. Now that this is a bounce-back game for Baltimore, Houston is screwed.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore takes out some frustration with a 34-13 romp.