BUF @ MIA
MIA -6
42.5
It’s incredibly hard to sweep a
divisional opponent, especially two years in a row. The Bills have gone
downhill as the season has progressed, and it’s likely time for Miami’s 3-game
losing streak against the Bills to end. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5
games against the Fish and the two teams have played 6 of 9 Under. Miami has
played 4 straight Unders and has covered in 3 straight as a favorite.
Pick: MIA -6. Dolphins win 24-10 (Under)
HOU @ CLE
CLE -3
41
I believe the Texans are the better team,
especially with Ryan Mallett at the helm. I’ve been on the Mallett bandwagon
ever since he was drafted and am excited to see what he does as a starting
quarterback. I also think Hoyer will struggle with the Texans’ talented
defensive line in his face most of the game. Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in their last
10 against the AFC South and the Browns and Texans have played 5 of 7 Under.
Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC North and has played 6 of 8
Over.
Pick: HOU +3. Texans win 27-20 (Over)
MIN @ CHI
CHI -3
46
Chicago is almost certainly the better
team, but have they given up? Last week was an absolute disgrace. If they’ve
thrown in the towel, they’ll lose. Otherwise it’ll be a blowout on the heels of
last week’s embarrassment. Chicago is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and
have failed to cover in 3 straight against the Vikings (after having covered 6
straight before that).
Pick: CHI -3. Bears win 38-13 (Over)
SEA @ KC
KC -2
42
Really? Someone is overestimating Kansas
City. The Chiefs have covered 4 of 5 against the Seahawks, but the teams haven’t
played since 2010. Seattle is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against the AFC West
but only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games. Kansas City has covered 3 straight
at home but is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against NFC West teams.
Pick: SEA +2. Seahawks win 28-17 (Over)
ATL @ CAR
CAR -1.5
46.5
I still have no faith in Atlanta on the
road, and Carolina is due for a win. They’re much better than their 3-6 record
indicates and will be playing tough after Monday night’s embarrassing loss. As
long as Newton isn’t too banged up to be effective, they should get the W. Carolina
has covered 7 of 10 at home and played 6 of 10 Over. Atlanta has only covered 1
of 5 road games, but they’re 7-4 ATS in their last 11 against the Panthers.
Pick: CAR -1.5. Panthers win 27-24 (Over)
CIN @ NO
NO -7
51
This isn’t an easy pick; the Bengals and
Saints are both solid teams, and both need a win. My logic for picking the
Saints to win would be that they’re clearly a playoff team on paper, yet would
be a longshot for the postseason if they fell to 4-6. The way they’ve been
playing this season, however, “clearly a playoff team” is not a term I’ll allow
myself to associate with New Orleans. Since a New Orleans blowout is not a
likely scenario – the Bengals had an extra week to prepare and should be
ashamed of how they played last Thursday – I’ll pick the Saints to win a
nail-biter. New Orleans has only covered 2 of 5 at home and has failed to cover
4 straight against the AFC North. Cincy has covered 5 of 6 against the NFC South
(and 3 straight against NO) and has played 7 of 8 Over against the NFC South.
Pick: CIN +7. Saints win 31-30 (Over)
TB @ WAS
WAS -7
45.5
There’s no way I’m spotting Washington 7
points unless the other team is blind or half-dead. And even then I’d have to
make a hard decision. Tampa has failed to cover 5 straight against the NFC
East, but is 4-2-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Skins. Washington has only
covered 3 spreads this season and has failed to cover in 3 straight games
against teams with losing records.
Pick: TB +7. Tampa Bay wins 21-17 (Under)
DEN @ STL
DEN -9
51
My initial gut reaction was to take St.
Louis and the points, but I refuse to agree with my gut. I think that’s just
the barbecue I ate for lunch trying to make its escape. St. Louis won’t score
many points and as the Raiders proved last week, even if you can hold down the
Broncos for a while, they’re eventually going to score a bunch. Denver had 6
points with about 3 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, yet had 20 by
halftime. And 41 by the end of the 3rd quarter. St. Louis has
covered 8 of 10 against the AFC West but has only covered 1 of their last 4
home games. Denver has only covered 1 of 3 against the Rams but is 5-1 ATS in
their last six. The Broncos have also played 13 of 20 Over with Manning under
center on the road.
Pick: DEN -9. Broncos win 34-13 (Under)
SF @ NYG
SF -4
43.5
This is a relatively big spread for a
road team to cover, especially one that has been as inconsistent as the 49ers.
I expect the Giants to cause San Francisco some problems, especially with
Patrick Willis out. I expect the 49ers to win, simply because they need it
more; but it may only be by a field goal. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last
6 against the 49ers and have played 5 of 7 Over. San Francisco is 7-1 ATS as
road favorites and has covered 6 of 8 against the NFC East.
Pick: NYG +4. 49ers win 24-23 (Over)
PHI @ GB
GB -6
54.5
After Monday night’s performance, I
actually believe Mark Sanchez is capable of leading the Eagles. The offense
fits his strengths and he seems to have grown since his time with the Jets.
Green Bay is playing very well, but I think they’re over-inflated because of a
few great games. They still have vulnerabilities, especially on defense. That
said, Philly won in Green Bay last season. How many teams pull that off in
back-to-back years? Green Bay is scoring a ton of points at home and should
have just enough in the tank to hang on for a close win. Green Bay has covered
5 straight as home favorites and has played straight Unders against the Eagles.
Philly has covered 5 of 7 against the Packers and 4 of 5 overall.
Pick: PHI +6. Green Bay wins 34-31 (Over)
OAK @ SD
SD -10
44.5
Whoa, this spread is way too big for me
to be comfortable picking the Chargers. These AFC West games are almost always
toss-ups, and it’s very hard for one division team to sweep another. San Diego
won the first game, and I think they may pull off the sweep; but if it’s in
blowout fashion I’ll be surprised. San Diego has covered 5 of 7 at home but
only 1 of 4 against the AFC West. Despite being 0-9, Oakland has covered 4 of 9
this season and is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against San Diego.
Pick: OAK +10. San Diego wins 23-17 (Under)
DET @ ARI
ARI -2
41.5
With Carson Palmer out, Drew Stanton
will be looking to stick it to his former team and prove he is capable of being
a starter in the NFL. The problem with the Cardinals, however, is
sustainability. They seem to be winning with smoke and mirrors…and a lot of forced
turnovers. If Detroit takes care of the ball and plays defense as well as they
have been all season, they’re the better team and should escape with a tight,
hard-fought win. Arizona has covered 7 of 8 overall and 4 of 5 against Detroit.
The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and have played 8 of 10 Over
against the Cards.
Pick: DET +2. Lions win 23-21 (Over)
NE @ IND
IND -3
57.5
There’s very little chance this game
will be played Under; expect a shootout. Brady and Luck have both been
phenomenal. I’d give Brady the edge, but the loss of Chandler Jones along the
Pats defensive line could be huge. Without his pressure, Luck should be able to
pick apart the Patriots secondary. Indy has covered 8 of 10 at home and played
5 straight November Overs. The Pats have covered 8 of 10 as underdogs and have
played 9 of 12 Over against Indy.
Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-33 (Over)
PIT @ TEN
PIT -5.5
46.5
I’m tempted to pick the Titans, as the
Steelers really aren’t that good. Coming off an embarrassing loss to play under
the lights on Monday Night is probably enough to wake them up, however, and I
expect Big Ben to have a big game. Plus the Titans are really having a rough
season. Tennessee has failed to cover in 10 straight home games and has only
covered 2 of 11 against teams with winning records. Pittsburgh has covered 3 of
9 against Tennessee and 12 of 18 overall.
Pick: PIT -5. Steelers win 24-17 (Under)
BYES: DAL, NYJ, JAX, BAL
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