NFL Week Thirteen Preview

CHI @ DET

DET -7

47.5

Apparently Chicago hasn’t completely packed it in. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Lions have Calvin Johnson. The Lions have covered 7 of 10 against the Bears and 4 of their last 5 at home. Chicago has only covered 1 of 6 within the division and has played 5 of 7 Thanksgiving games Over.

Pick: DET -7. Lions win 27-10 (Under)

PHI @ DAL

DAL -3

55.5

The Eagles’ secondary is one of the worst in the league, but Dallas’ isn’t significantly better. Though these stats would suggest a shootout, I’ll bet this goes Under. When two much-maligned defenses see the opposing offense getting all of the press leading up to a game, they tend to step it up. It’s not always the case, but it happens frequently enough to be worth betting the Under. I’ll pick Dallas at home simply because I don’t 100% trust Sanchez in a pressure-packed Thanksgiving game in front of a National audience. Dallas has only covered 3 of 10 at home, but the Eagles have only covered 2 of 7 on the road.

Pick: DAL -3. Cowboys win 27-23 (Under)

SEA @ SF

SF -1.5

40

San Francisco needs this win more than the Seahawks, but the 49ers have been terrible at home. Seattle is getting its groove back defensively at just the right time. Expect a tight, low-scoring game. Seattle has only covered 4 of their last 11 on the road and just 1 of 3 Thanksgiving games. San Francisco has covered 6 of 9 home games against the Seahawks and has played 6 of 7 Thursday games Under.

Pick: SEA +1.5. Seahawks win 17-13 (Under)

WAS @ IND

IND -9.5

51

I expect Kirk Cousins to perform well, especially against a somewhat porous Indy defense. Indy should win, but I expect it to stay close. Especially considering the fact that Indy has only covered 1 of 6 against the Skins.

Pick: WAS +9.5. Colts win 27-23 (Under)

TEN @ HOU

HOU -6

42.5

Tennessee has been awful. It’s tough to pick them to beat the Texans, even after Mallett was sidelined. Fitzpatrick began the season as the starter, so I doubt he’ll have any growing pains. It’s hard to blow out a team twice in one season, but I expect the Texans to win by a touchdown despite having covered only 3 of 10 home games. After all, the Titans have only covered 1 of 7 against Houston and 2 of 13 within the division.

Pick: HOU -6. Texans win 23-14 (Under)

CLE @ BUF

BUF -3

41

I’m not incredibly high on the Browns and I Billieve the Bills will step it up in front of their home fans after having to play last week’s “home” game in Detroit. Most of the stats tell me I’m crazy (BUF 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and last 5 against a +.500 team, Cleveland 4-2 SU last 6 v BUF), but crazy happens all the time in the NFL.

Pick: BUF -3. Bills win 27-21 (Over)

SD @ BAL

BAL -6

45.5

I think the Chargers will keep this game within reach, but the Ravens are awfully good at home.

Pick: SD +6. Ravens win 17-14 (Under)

NYG @ JAX

NYG -3

44.5

This is the type of game Jacksonville can win. Disrespected as a home underdog against a team with some major concerns, I’ll bet the Jags show up strong. Their defense line will be all over Eli and he’ll turn the ball over at least twice. Unfortunately I still don’t trust Jacksonville’s offense, so they’ll probably end up losing.

Pick: NYG -3. Giants win 28-17 (Over)

CIN @ TB

CIN -3.5

44.5

It seems as though the Bengals are “back”. They’ve played very well through the past few weeks, including on the road in New Orleans and Houston. That said, this is their third straight road game. It’s tough to win 3 straight away from your own building. Plus the Bucs have been playing well are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 against Cincy.

Pick: TB +3.5. Bucs win 20-17 (Under)

OAK @ STL

STL -7

42

The Raiders have renewed confidence after last week’s win, plus they get a few extra days of rest. I think the Rams will win, but the Raiders should make it interesting.

Pick: OAK +7. Rams win 24-23 (Over)

NO @ PIT

PIT -4.5

53.5

New Orleans desperately needs wins, and I still don’t think the Steelers are “that” good. Then again, the Saints have showed me no reason to have faith in them and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Steelers.

Pick: NO +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-21 (Under)

CAR @ MIN

MIN -3

43

Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a streak of 2+ losses and they’ve done a good job winning games against lesser opposition this season. They’re also decent at home, while Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. That said, Carolina has to win a couple more games, right? They should be better than they’ve shown. If they’re going to get one or two more wins, this has to be one of them.

Pick: CAR +3. Panthers win 16-10 (Under)

ARI @ ATL

ARI -2.5

44.5

Arizona has historically been shaky when traveling to the east coast, and Atlanta is a much better team at home. Plus the Falcons have won 5 straight home games against the Cards. Though the teams’ records may not suggest this outcome, I expect the Falcons to get a much-needed home win to stay on top of the NFC South.

Pick: ATL +2.5. Falcons win 27-24 (Over)

NE @ GB

GB -3

58

This Total completely disrespects both defenses…but I can’t say it’s wrong. Brady and Rodgers are likely to have an epic duel. Green Bay has been incredible at home, but the Patriots have a better shot at slowing down Green Bay’s offense than vice versa. In big games I hesitate to pick against Brady and Belichick. Even though the Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Pats, only 3 of those games have been in the last 12 years and the Pats won 2 of them (1-2 ATS).  

Pick: NE +3. Patriots win 35-31 (Over)

DEN @ KC

DEN -2

49.5

I’m tempted to pick the Chiefs, as they return to the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium looking for retribution after last week’s loss to the Raiders. Denver is missing its top two running backs and may or may not have Julius Thomas at 100%. That said, they still have Peyton Manning. And their rush defense is #2 in the NFL. If this turns into a Peyton Manning v. Alex Smith competition, Manning is the obvious choice.  

Pick: DEN -2. Broncos win 27-20 (Under)

MIA @ NYJ

MIA -7

42

While the Jets seem to have given up, 7 is an awfully big spread for a middle-of-the-pack team to cover on the road. New York responded reasonably well after their blowout loss to the Bill a few weeks ago. Expect them to respond well after last week’s blowout loss to the Bills as well.

Pick: NYJ +7. Miami wins 21-19 (Under)