THANKSGIVING GAMES
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
Line: Titans -11
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
I hate to give so many points to the Titans, especially in a Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit...but the Lions have no rushing defense, and the Titans have Chris Johnson. Plus Tennessee is coming off a loss, and wants to get "back on the horse".
Titans -11. Tennessee Rolls 31-13.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13
O/U: 47
Seattle is #31 in the league against the pass, and Romo and TO are starting to piece things back together. It stinks, but I think both of these will be turkey day blowouts.
Cowboys -13. Dallas comes out firing 37-17.
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 47
Arizona hasn't won on the East Coast...until now. The Eagles can't score, and Arizona can. Unless Warner gets a case of the fumblies, which he may, then the Cards should take this one.
Cards +3. Arizona wins outright 31-19.
Sunday
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7.5
O/U: 47.5
The Jets have trouble with the AFC West, but Denver is terrible, and Favre will tear them apart. The problem is that the Jets' Pass D is ranked even worse than Denver's, so Cutler may have a big game too. I think the Jets win, but not by that much.
Broncos +7.5. The Broncos are never predictable, so I'll go against my gut. Jets 33-27.
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6.5
O/U: 42.5
Buffalo needs the win, and should handle the 49ers, even though they are no pushover. It's another game where a loss would all but mean the end of Buffalo's season.
Bills -6.5. Buffalo wins 33-23.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
If the line were 3, I might take the Bucs, but there is a good chance they'll only win by a field goal - they rarely pull away. Plus with Reggie Bush back, the Saints may actually be able to sweep the season series.
Saints +3.5. Tampa wins 23-21.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43
The Frozen Tundra becomes a huge home-field advantage around this part of the season, especially against southern teams. Green Bay's pass D must be pissed after the Saints made them look like fools, so Delhomme will have a long game.
Packers -3. Green Bay wins 30-17.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3.5
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
Are you kidding me? The Giants are very good, and are built to win on the road, thanks to excellent play in the trenches. This one will be more dominant than the first meeting.
Giants -3.5. New York Skins 'em 31-16.
Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Dolphins -7
O/U: n/a
The Battle of the Longs! I hate to give Miami this many points, but the Rams have been very bad the last few weeks, and the Fins are due for a blowout.
Dolphins -7. Miami wins 31-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36.5
There is little offense in this game, and though the Ravens have a much better defense, it's usually more intelligent to go against a big spread in a low-scoring game. Then again, it's the Bengals.
Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 23-10.
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 45
While Derek Anderson is trying to figure out whether or not he's upset that he got back to the starting role by injury, and not because the team is confident in him, Peyton will be tearing the Browns up.
Colts -5. Indy wins 34-24.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -4.5
O/U: 49
Linebuster!
I get it. Give the Chargers points, because they're at home, and they absolutely must win. The only problem? Atlanta is in a division race, too, and the Falcons have actually looked good. Steadily good. Not to mention, they know they're the underdog, and will be out to prove that they are no fluke. The NFC South is a very good division. Believe it.
Falcons +4.5. Atlanta wins outright 27-23.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -1
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
Just to preface my pick, this is quite possibly the worst way I have ever picked a game. Here we go...The Pats should be no better than 10-6 this season without Brady. To fall that far, they'll need to lose 2 more. I doubt they'll lose the next two weeks, and even Arizona at home is winnable in week 16. So that means they'll need to lose to the Steelers and Bills! Of course, I could also back my pick up by noting that Pittsburgh's aggressive D will give Cassel nightmares, and that Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose and fall into a tie with the Ravens for first in the division.
Steelers +1. Pittsburgh Wins 21-17.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -3
O/U: 41.5
This game means nothing to me, so I am considering flipping a coin. I heard somebody recently say that they thought the Raiders could win out. I doubt that, but this game is certainly winnable. The problem is that it's KC's chance to get a second win, and nobody wants to end up 1-15.
Raiders -3. Let's hope that guy that said that thing knows something we don't. Raiders win 27-24.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 42
This is a huge divisional game, and it comes down to who can win when needed. The Vikings were built to be a contender, and when everything is on the line, I'd expect them to be the team that comes out on top. We've already seen them win a few desperation games. Time for one more.
Vikings -3.5. Minnesota Cruises 27-16.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48
Who booked this game for Monday Night? Awful. The fact that the Texans are favored tells you all you need to know. It's been a long year for the Jags. But these guys still have a great deal of pride, and there's no way they give up without a fight. They know they should be better than the Texans. After a good defensive game, the Texans are due to struggle a little.
Jags +3. Jacksonville wins 23-20.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
RECAP - WEEK TWELVE
This Week: 5-11 (82-88-5)
Linebusters: 3-2 (30-29-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 8-8 (107-65-1)
You know it's a bad week when even my straight picks aren't over .500. What the hell happened? I guess we're back to the NFL where half the league craps the bed in a given week. I'm upset about this one...descriptions will be very short.
Not Cold Enough
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -11
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Bengals +11. Steelers win 23-13!
Result: Steelers 27-10
Didn't think that many points would be scored in the cold, snowy weather. I was wrong.
Cleveland Most Decidedly Does NOT Rock
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins one for the Dog Pound 31-24.
Result: Texans 16-6
Hello, Under. Let me tell you a little story about a football team with no offense and a mediocre-at-best defense that beat the defending Super Bowl Champion, gained a bunch of confidence, and found its groove offensively. It won a couple games here and there, and then beat the Buffalo Bills, on Monday Night, on the road. Then it faced a somewhat lousy defensive team in their own building, and scored only six points. How you ask? If you find out, LET ME FREAKING KNOW!
At Least My Team Kicked Some Butt
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bills -3
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -3. Buffalo finally gets back on the horse 26-14.
Result: Bills 54-31
When I'm picking well, the Bills lose and make me feel miserable. When I'm picking like crap, and feel miserable anyway, the Bills somehow score points. A lot of them. They need to win this week, and win 2 of the final 3 games against division opponents, to have any playoff shot.
Why Wouldn't I be Forced to Rescind My Jets Views...
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Titans -5. Tennessee is legit. New York isn't. Titans 27-17.
Result: Jets 34-13
A crappy team with nearly the same lineup as last year adds a couple guys on the O-line, a proven QB, and suddenly is a powerhouse? Not really. They lost by 19 to the Chargers. They lost to the Raiders. They almost lost to the Chiefs. The Jets have gelled together as the season has progressed, and you cannot underestimate the importance of a QB that knows how to win. They're now a playoff team, and I do think they are on the upper tier of the AFC East, mostly because they have the confidence to win any game they're in. You likely won't see a Giants-Jets Super Bowl, but like I said, they should get in the playoffs now.
No Contest
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -1
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Patriots +1. I can't believe I get points on this one! Pats win it 24-16.
Result: Pats 48-28
This had to happen. New England doesn't lose to the same team twice in one season, and Cassel is getting better. Playoffs are still a maybe, though.
Double Edged Sword
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -10
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: 49ers +10. Cowboys still win it 31-23.
Result: Cowboys 35-22
I was close on the score, but the Dallas D held up just enough to cover. Of course, the points they earned helped my fantasy team win, so this "loss" is bittersweet.
Top of the South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bucs -8.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Bucs -8.5. The Bucs should power by the Lions 23-13.
Result: Bucs 38-20
HA! I knew the Bucs could win by more than a handful. Now they're tied atop the division...how good is the NFC South this year?
Offensive Juggernaut
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Philly +1. Eagles pull it out 23-9.
Result: Ravens 36-7
You've gotta be kidding me. Where the heck is the offense? McNabb, pull your head out of your ass and command the freaking game! At the start of the year, I was concerned the Eagles would not put up big O numbers, but after they came out of the gate guns-blazin' I changed my mind. Well, I'm back to the old way of thinking. Stupid Birds.
Rammin' Nothin'
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bears -8.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Rams +8.5. Chicago still wins a squeaker 24-21.
Result: Bears 27-3
Rams were doing good. Surprising people. Now they're not. They suck again. Nuff Said.
Season's Officially Over
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings +2.5. Again, I can't believe I'm getting points here. Minny wins 23-17.
Result: Vikings 30-12
People had the Jags in the Super Bowl this year. They won't be. What a poor showing for the Jags all season long...
What Does This Mean?
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Panthers +1. Carolina sweeps the season series 24-23.
Result: Falcons 45-28
I actually thought better of this one after I picked it. With all the bunching atop the NFC South, what does this mean for the playoff picture? Tampa and Carolina are 8-3, and the Falcons are 7-4. At most, two of these teams will be in the postseason. Maybe only one, if the Skins and Cowboys both pull it together. Who will it be?
I Hate Denver SOOOOO Much
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Broncos -9.5. Denver crushes Oakland again 34-14.
Result: Raiders 31-10
Explosive offense and no D vs. No offense and some D...and keep in mind, Denver won by a ton IN Oakland....so of COURSE Oakland wins it. It makes perfect sense. The Broncos love to screw my picks up, and now they've lost to the Chiefs and Raiders, beat the Chargers thanks to Ed Hochuli, lost to the lowly Jags at home, and lost to the Fins at home. Can we change the playoff structure? No one from the AFC West deserves to polish the cleats of a playoff team, let alone compete against them.
Stupid Redskins
Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Skins -3.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Skins -3.5. Washington wins 24-20.
Result: Skins 20-17
Of course they won by a field goal. That was my only hesitation is picking them. Lazy offense-less jackasses.
I Know, I Know
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Cards +3. Arizona will catch the Giants napping and win outright 34-30.
Result: Giants 37-29
I did not truly think the Cards were better...I just expected the Giants to come out flat. They didn't. They're a VERY good team. To win without Jacobs and Burress, on the road, and look good doing it? Wow.
Vinatieri To The Rescue!
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -2.5
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Colts +2.5. Glad to take the Colts with points when they need wins. Indy 31-28.
Result: Colts 23-20
The Colts should make the playoffs. The Chargers may overtake the Broncs, but only because both teams are awful. There seriously could be an 8-8, or god forbid 7-9, team in the playoffs. That's how bad the AFC West is.
Too Little, Too Late
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -2.5
O/U: 51.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers +2.5. They were great against the Bears; They'll shred the Saints 34-24.
Result: Saints 51-29
I didn't realize that the Packers would implode in the 3rd quarter, or I would have considered a Saints win. New Orleans is not going to make the playoffs, despite being a favorite when the season began. There are too many good teams emerging in front of them in the South. The Packers have work to do, as the Vikings and Bears are now winning games.
Linebusters: 3-2 (30-29-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 8-8 (107-65-1)
You know it's a bad week when even my straight picks aren't over .500. What the hell happened? I guess we're back to the NFL where half the league craps the bed in a given week. I'm upset about this one...descriptions will be very short.
Not Cold Enough
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -11
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Bengals +11. Steelers win 23-13!
Result: Steelers 27-10
Didn't think that many points would be scored in the cold, snowy weather. I was wrong.
Cleveland Most Decidedly Does NOT Rock
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins one for the Dog Pound 31-24.
Result: Texans 16-6
Hello, Under. Let me tell you a little story about a football team with no offense and a mediocre-at-best defense that beat the defending Super Bowl Champion, gained a bunch of confidence, and found its groove offensively. It won a couple games here and there, and then beat the Buffalo Bills, on Monday Night, on the road. Then it faced a somewhat lousy defensive team in their own building, and scored only six points. How you ask? If you find out, LET ME FREAKING KNOW!
At Least My Team Kicked Some Butt
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bills -3
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -3. Buffalo finally gets back on the horse 26-14.
Result: Bills 54-31
When I'm picking well, the Bills lose and make me feel miserable. When I'm picking like crap, and feel miserable anyway, the Bills somehow score points. A lot of them. They need to win this week, and win 2 of the final 3 games against division opponents, to have any playoff shot.
Why Wouldn't I be Forced to Rescind My Jets Views...
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Titans -5. Tennessee is legit. New York isn't. Titans 27-17.
Result: Jets 34-13
A crappy team with nearly the same lineup as last year adds a couple guys on the O-line, a proven QB, and suddenly is a powerhouse? Not really. They lost by 19 to the Chargers. They lost to the Raiders. They almost lost to the Chiefs. The Jets have gelled together as the season has progressed, and you cannot underestimate the importance of a QB that knows how to win. They're now a playoff team, and I do think they are on the upper tier of the AFC East, mostly because they have the confidence to win any game they're in. You likely won't see a Giants-Jets Super Bowl, but like I said, they should get in the playoffs now.
No Contest
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -1
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Patriots +1. I can't believe I get points on this one! Pats win it 24-16.
Result: Pats 48-28
This had to happen. New England doesn't lose to the same team twice in one season, and Cassel is getting better. Playoffs are still a maybe, though.
Double Edged Sword
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -10
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: 49ers +10. Cowboys still win it 31-23.
Result: Cowboys 35-22
I was close on the score, but the Dallas D held up just enough to cover. Of course, the points they earned helped my fantasy team win, so this "loss" is bittersweet.
Top of the South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bucs -8.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Bucs -8.5. The Bucs should power by the Lions 23-13.
Result: Bucs 38-20
HA! I knew the Bucs could win by more than a handful. Now they're tied atop the division...how good is the NFC South this year?
Offensive Juggernaut
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Philly +1. Eagles pull it out 23-9.
Result: Ravens 36-7
You've gotta be kidding me. Where the heck is the offense? McNabb, pull your head out of your ass and command the freaking game! At the start of the year, I was concerned the Eagles would not put up big O numbers, but after they came out of the gate guns-blazin' I changed my mind. Well, I'm back to the old way of thinking. Stupid Birds.
Rammin' Nothin'
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bears -8.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Rams +8.5. Chicago still wins a squeaker 24-21.
Result: Bears 27-3
Rams were doing good. Surprising people. Now they're not. They suck again. Nuff Said.
Season's Officially Over
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings +2.5. Again, I can't believe I'm getting points here. Minny wins 23-17.
Result: Vikings 30-12
People had the Jags in the Super Bowl this year. They won't be. What a poor showing for the Jags all season long...
What Does This Mean?
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Panthers +1. Carolina sweeps the season series 24-23.
Result: Falcons 45-28
I actually thought better of this one after I picked it. With all the bunching atop the NFC South, what does this mean for the playoff picture? Tampa and Carolina are 8-3, and the Falcons are 7-4. At most, two of these teams will be in the postseason. Maybe only one, if the Skins and Cowboys both pull it together. Who will it be?
I Hate Denver SOOOOO Much
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Broncos -9.5. Denver crushes Oakland again 34-14.
Result: Raiders 31-10
Explosive offense and no D vs. No offense and some D...and keep in mind, Denver won by a ton IN Oakland....so of COURSE Oakland wins it. It makes perfect sense. The Broncos love to screw my picks up, and now they've lost to the Chiefs and Raiders, beat the Chargers thanks to Ed Hochuli, lost to the lowly Jags at home, and lost to the Fins at home. Can we change the playoff structure? No one from the AFC West deserves to polish the cleats of a playoff team, let alone compete against them.
Stupid Redskins
Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Skins -3.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Skins -3.5. Washington wins 24-20.
Result: Skins 20-17
Of course they won by a field goal. That was my only hesitation is picking them. Lazy offense-less jackasses.
I Know, I Know
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Cards +3. Arizona will catch the Giants napping and win outright 34-30.
Result: Giants 37-29
I did not truly think the Cards were better...I just expected the Giants to come out flat. They didn't. They're a VERY good team. To win without Jacobs and Burress, on the road, and look good doing it? Wow.
Vinatieri To The Rescue!
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -2.5
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Colts +2.5. Glad to take the Colts with points when they need wins. Indy 31-28.
Result: Colts 23-20
The Colts should make the playoffs. The Chargers may overtake the Broncs, but only because both teams are awful. There seriously could be an 8-8, or god forbid 7-9, team in the playoffs. That's how bad the AFC West is.
Too Little, Too Late
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -2.5
O/U: 51.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers +2.5. They were great against the Bears; They'll shred the Saints 34-24.
Result: Saints 51-29
I didn't realize that the Packers would implode in the 3rd quarter, or I would have considered a Saints win. New Orleans is not going to make the playoffs, despite being a favorite when the season began. There are too many good teams emerging in front of them in the South. The Packers have work to do, as the Vikings and Bears are now winning games.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK TWELVE
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -11
O/U: 34.5
Cincy will be without Ocho Cinco, but I'm not sure that will have much of an effect, as he hasn't done a whole lot this year. The Bengal offense is last in the league, but their D has been keeping them in games, specifically their passing D. Willie is back, though, so it could be a long night for the Bengals. It'll be cold, and it will snow all day, which likely means a very run-heavy game...as you can see, I'm moving back and forth on this one. Pittsburgh's D will be solid against the run, and Fitzpatrick can't do much of anything, but 11 points seems like a lot, even though Pittsburgh won by 28 last time. Cincy has gained a lot of confidence since then, and I doubt the Steelers will score a ton of points using the run game and ball control.
Bengals +11. I actually think it will be right on (24-13), but I'd rather go short just in case the Bengals keep it close again. Steelers 23-13!
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 50.5
Houston is ahead of Cleveland in nearly every statistical category, but Cleveland has been getting better as the season has progressed. It is also very tough to win on the road in the NFL, and though both teams played tough games last week, Houston has to travel again, Cleveland does not. Oh yes, I love intangibles.
Browns -3. Cleveland wins one for the Dog Pound 31-24.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bills -3
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
I told myself I wouldn't "line bust" on the Bills anymore, but this one is pretty obvious. If the Bills lose, they're totally done, though many Buffalo fans would argue that they are already out of contention. Buffalo needs this win BAD. And they'll get it.
Bills -3. Buffalo finally gets back on the horse 26-14.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 40.5
The only reason I won't linebust this is that the Titans tend to get involved in close games, so they could easily win by only a field goal. But they'll win regardless. The Jets still ARE NOT GOOD. Yes, they lead the AFC East, but that division has proven itself to be very inconsistent. If they beat the Titans, I will rescind my campaign against the Jets, and will re-examine how they came to lose to the Raiders, yet are atop the division.
Titans -5. Tennessee is legit. New York isn't. Titans 27-17.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -1
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Do the Patriots often lose two in a row? How about two in a row to one team? Let me assure you the answer to both of those is NO. The Pats were the first team the Fins broke out the Wildcat against. Now they know it's coming. Plus the Pats are fighting for a division. Belichek will not lose to the Fins again. If he does, the Pats' season will end on week 17.
Patriots +1. I can't believe I get points on this one! Pats win it 24-16.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -10
O/U: 46.5
Can I really give the Cowboys 10 points before they prove themselves? San Francisco is toward the bottom of the defensive ranks, and has had a hard time getting to the QB, which could mean Romo torches them. Of course, they did just play close with Arizona (another good passing attack), and have the added confidence of blowing out the Rams last week. My X-factor here is that, for the past few weeks, Dallas has been forced to win games with defense. So I'll bet that D is a bit tired, and will let Romo win this one.
49ers +10. Cowboys still win it 31-23.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bucs -8.5
O/U: 41.5
Vegas has learned its lesson...no more huge spread against the Lions. I'm still concerned about it being too high, though. I know Tampa has beaten every team in the NFC North but the Lions already, and that this one should be no problem. With Earnest Graham out, will the Bucs score enough points to cover? What am I thinking? That defense is sound, and Warrick Dunn is more than capable of shouldering the load without Graham.
Bucs -8.5. The Bucs should power by the Lions 23-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
Baltimore's only win over a .500+ team was Miami...and Miami plays down to the competition like no other team in the league. Philly, thanks to a tie last week, is still over .500. And after low offensive totals the last few weeks, with Westbrook in the lineup, McNabb must be pissed. Even against the solid Baltimore D, Philly will put up some points. And as the Philly D is pretty damn good too, Baltimore will struggle.
Philly +1. Eagles pull it out 23-9.
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bears -8.5
O/U: 43
Chicago needs a win pretty badly, but with Bulger's statement of support for his coach this past week, I think this team will rally around him and play tough. Plus the last time the Rams lost four straight, they came back and beat the Skins and Boys in back to back weeks. At home, I think the Rams will play tough.
Rams +8.5. Chicago still wins a squeaker 24-21.
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
Why, you ask? Minnesota is fighting for something, and Jacksonville is done. Maybe they can play for pride and win some games they shouldn't down the stretch, but I don't think this will be one of them.
Vikings +2.5. Again, I can't believe I'm getting points here. Minny wins 23-17.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 42.5
Carolina really overwhelmed the Falcons the last time the two met, and now that the Panthers are trying to hold off the Bucs for first in the division, they know they need to win this one. The Bucs are in Detroit, and will likely win, which means a Carolina loss would drop them down into a first place tie. They don't want that. The Falcons are good, but not "playoff good". They'll lose more than they win down the stretch.
Panthers +1. Carolina sweeps the season series 24-23.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Denver won the last meeting between these teams by 27, and that was in Oakland's house. Denver is a tough place to play, and without much to offer offensively, Oakland will get spanked. The only chance Oakland has is if Denver underestimates than and comes out flat (which is possible...) and they totally shut down Cutler and the Denver O...easier said than done.
Broncos -9.5. Denver crushes Oakland again 34-14.
Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Skins -3.5
O/U: 40
My problem with this game is that Washington ends up playing like a bunch of idiots whenever they get on the field with a "lesser" team. Of course, three of their four losses were at home, and only the Rams loss was really "bad". With the added playoff implications of a win in Seattle, I think the Skins O may actually wake up and get something done. It'll be close, but I think they can cover.
Skins -3.5. Washington wins 24-20.
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 48.5
Arizona hasn't lost at home yet, nor have they lost outside the east coast...which is where they head next week to play the Eagles. This could be a trap game of sorts for the Giants. Arizona has a great offense, and is very good at home. But the Giants have been absolutely unstoppable lately. Taking a look at the Giants schedule, though, the Eagles likely have the best offense they have faced so far, and Philly put up 31 points. Arizona's O may be even better, though Edgerrin James is being a little bitch about playing time lately, which could distract the team a bit. I'd rather pick the crazy upset and be wrong than pick intelligently and miss out on having picked a big upset.
Cards +3. Arizona will catch the Giants napping and win outright 34-30.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The only decent team the Chargers have beaten all year were the Patriots, and New England really played an off game that day. Both of these teams need a win, and though San Diego may need it more, Indy needs it enough to get it done, especilly against a Chargers D that can't stop much of anything right now.
Colts +2.5. Glad to take the Colts with points when they need wins. Indy 31-28.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -2.5
O/U: 51.5
Linebuster!
Green Bay may have the 27th-ranked run defense in the league, but they're #3 in pass defense. And they're first in the league in INTs. So heading down to the Bayou to face the league's best passing O may not scare them any. New Orleans has been slipping, and since both teams are figthing to get in the playoff picture, desperation isn't an issue. The Saints haven't had a quality win since week one against the Bucs. The loser is all but out of playoff contention, and I just can't see the Packers packing it in this soon.
Packers +2.5. They were great against the Bears; They'll shred the Saints 34-24.
Line: Steelers -11
O/U: 34.5
Cincy will be without Ocho Cinco, but I'm not sure that will have much of an effect, as he hasn't done a whole lot this year. The Bengal offense is last in the league, but their D has been keeping them in games, specifically their passing D. Willie is back, though, so it could be a long night for the Bengals. It'll be cold, and it will snow all day, which likely means a very run-heavy game...as you can see, I'm moving back and forth on this one. Pittsburgh's D will be solid against the run, and Fitzpatrick can't do much of anything, but 11 points seems like a lot, even though Pittsburgh won by 28 last time. Cincy has gained a lot of confidence since then, and I doubt the Steelers will score a ton of points using the run game and ball control.
Bengals +11. I actually think it will be right on (24-13), but I'd rather go short just in case the Bengals keep it close again. Steelers 23-13!
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 50.5
Houston is ahead of Cleveland in nearly every statistical category, but Cleveland has been getting better as the season has progressed. It is also very tough to win on the road in the NFL, and though both teams played tough games last week, Houston has to travel again, Cleveland does not. Oh yes, I love intangibles.
Browns -3. Cleveland wins one for the Dog Pound 31-24.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bills -3
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
I told myself I wouldn't "line bust" on the Bills anymore, but this one is pretty obvious. If the Bills lose, they're totally done, though many Buffalo fans would argue that they are already out of contention. Buffalo needs this win BAD. And they'll get it.
Bills -3. Buffalo finally gets back on the horse 26-14.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 40.5
The only reason I won't linebust this is that the Titans tend to get involved in close games, so they could easily win by only a field goal. But they'll win regardless. The Jets still ARE NOT GOOD. Yes, they lead the AFC East, but that division has proven itself to be very inconsistent. If they beat the Titans, I will rescind my campaign against the Jets, and will re-examine how they came to lose to the Raiders, yet are atop the division.
Titans -5. Tennessee is legit. New York isn't. Titans 27-17.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -1
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Do the Patriots often lose two in a row? How about two in a row to one team? Let me assure you the answer to both of those is NO. The Pats were the first team the Fins broke out the Wildcat against. Now they know it's coming. Plus the Pats are fighting for a division. Belichek will not lose to the Fins again. If he does, the Pats' season will end on week 17.
Patriots +1. I can't believe I get points on this one! Pats win it 24-16.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -10
O/U: 46.5
Can I really give the Cowboys 10 points before they prove themselves? San Francisco is toward the bottom of the defensive ranks, and has had a hard time getting to the QB, which could mean Romo torches them. Of course, they did just play close with Arizona (another good passing attack), and have the added confidence of blowing out the Rams last week. My X-factor here is that, for the past few weeks, Dallas has been forced to win games with defense. So I'll bet that D is a bit tired, and will let Romo win this one.
49ers +10. Cowboys still win it 31-23.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bucs -8.5
O/U: 41.5
Vegas has learned its lesson...no more huge spread against the Lions. I'm still concerned about it being too high, though. I know Tampa has beaten every team in the NFC North but the Lions already, and that this one should be no problem. With Earnest Graham out, will the Bucs score enough points to cover? What am I thinking? That defense is sound, and Warrick Dunn is more than capable of shouldering the load without Graham.
Bucs -8.5. The Bucs should power by the Lions 23-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
Baltimore's only win over a .500+ team was Miami...and Miami plays down to the competition like no other team in the league. Philly, thanks to a tie last week, is still over .500. And after low offensive totals the last few weeks, with Westbrook in the lineup, McNabb must be pissed. Even against the solid Baltimore D, Philly will put up some points. And as the Philly D is pretty damn good too, Baltimore will struggle.
Philly +1. Eagles pull it out 23-9.
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bears -8.5
O/U: 43
Chicago needs a win pretty badly, but with Bulger's statement of support for his coach this past week, I think this team will rally around him and play tough. Plus the last time the Rams lost four straight, they came back and beat the Skins and Boys in back to back weeks. At home, I think the Rams will play tough.
Rams +8.5. Chicago still wins a squeaker 24-21.
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
Why, you ask? Minnesota is fighting for something, and Jacksonville is done. Maybe they can play for pride and win some games they shouldn't down the stretch, but I don't think this will be one of them.
Vikings +2.5. Again, I can't believe I'm getting points here. Minny wins 23-17.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 42.5
Carolina really overwhelmed the Falcons the last time the two met, and now that the Panthers are trying to hold off the Bucs for first in the division, they know they need to win this one. The Bucs are in Detroit, and will likely win, which means a Carolina loss would drop them down into a first place tie. They don't want that. The Falcons are good, but not "playoff good". They'll lose more than they win down the stretch.
Panthers +1. Carolina sweeps the season series 24-23.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Denver won the last meeting between these teams by 27, and that was in Oakland's house. Denver is a tough place to play, and without much to offer offensively, Oakland will get spanked. The only chance Oakland has is if Denver underestimates than and comes out flat (which is possible...) and they totally shut down Cutler and the Denver O...easier said than done.
Broncos -9.5. Denver crushes Oakland again 34-14.
Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Skins -3.5
O/U: 40
My problem with this game is that Washington ends up playing like a bunch of idiots whenever they get on the field with a "lesser" team. Of course, three of their four losses were at home, and only the Rams loss was really "bad". With the added playoff implications of a win in Seattle, I think the Skins O may actually wake up and get something done. It'll be close, but I think they can cover.
Skins -3.5. Washington wins 24-20.
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 48.5
Arizona hasn't lost at home yet, nor have they lost outside the east coast...which is where they head next week to play the Eagles. This could be a trap game of sorts for the Giants. Arizona has a great offense, and is very good at home. But the Giants have been absolutely unstoppable lately. Taking a look at the Giants schedule, though, the Eagles likely have the best offense they have faced so far, and Philly put up 31 points. Arizona's O may be even better, though Edgerrin James is being a little bitch about playing time lately, which could distract the team a bit. I'd rather pick the crazy upset and be wrong than pick intelligently and miss out on having picked a big upset.
Cards +3. Arizona will catch the Giants napping and win outright 34-30.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The only decent team the Chargers have beaten all year were the Patriots, and New England really played an off game that day. Both of these teams need a win, and though San Diego may need it more, Indy needs it enough to get it done, especilly against a Chargers D that can't stop much of anything right now.
Colts +2.5. Glad to take the Colts with points when they need wins. Indy 31-28.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -2.5
O/U: 51.5
Linebuster!
Green Bay may have the 27th-ranked run defense in the league, but they're #3 in pass defense. And they're first in the league in INTs. So heading down to the Bayou to face the league's best passing O may not scare them any. New Orleans has been slipping, and since both teams are figthing to get in the playoff picture, desperation isn't an issue. The Saints haven't had a quality win since week one against the Bucs. The loser is all but out of playoff contention, and I just can't see the Packers packing it in this soon.
Packers +2.5. They were great against the Bears; They'll shred the Saints 34-24.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
RECAP - WEEK ELEVEN
This Week: 10-6 (77-77-5)
Linebusters: 4-1 (27-27-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 12-3-1 (99-57-1)
Back to .500! Now that I've had two good weeks in a row, I have to keep it going!
You Still SUCK!
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -3.5. New England at home is an easy choice. 27-17.
Result: Jets 34-31 (ot)
This game does not prove to me that the Jets are any good. It proves that the entire AFC East is bad. Buffalo has no wins over a .500 team, and is now at the bottom of the division. Miami is Miami. And the Pats lost to the Jets. The team atop that division, New York, may win it...but they've lost to the Raiders. Sorry Jets fans, but you're about to find out what a really good team looks like. Tennessee's going to kick your ass. If not, I'll eat my words.
Depleted Denver Still Scoring
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6.5
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. It's just too high. Falcons win 34-31.
Result: Broncos 24-20
I expected Matt Ryan to put up more than 20, but credit a Denver squad that is pushing its way through injuries for still being able to score some points. That D won't take the Broncos very far, but in their division, 8-8 may be a playoff team...
Still Miami
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Raiders +10.5. Miami still gets it done 19-13.
Result: Miami 17-15
See how close I was? Miami is a team that plays to their opposition. That means a lot of close games, and a lot of bad losses.
Second-Best, or Super Bowl Favorite? Can't it be both?
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Giants -6.5. The Giants have to blow out one of these teams. 33-13.
Result: Giants 30-10
The Giants are clearly among the best teams in the NFL, but are they #1? With Tennessee at 10-0, you can't say the Giants are the best team, especially considering who they lost to. But if the two played head-to-head, I'd bet on a Giant win. So yes, the Giants are my super bowl favorite, yet I believe are currently the second-best team in the NFL.
Here they Come
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -8.5
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Texans +8.5. Colts win 27-21.
Result: Colts 33-27
See, these two teams tend to play close games. Anyway, the Colts are on their way back up. No, they won't be the prohibitive favorite out of the AFC, but they should have enough in the tank to make the playoffs, and can then figure things out from there. We know they have the talent, but can they put it all together?
So Kerry has an Arm...(the QB, not the senator...)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee's D is too much. 27-16.
Result: Titans 24-14
Collins has showed us a few times that he can come back from a deficit and still get his team a win, which is the one potential criticism of the Titans. Granted, part of that is because the Tennessee defense can totally shut teams down and not let them increase the lead. We'll see what happens if the Titans ever get down by 14+ with only 1 quarter to play. With that D, though, it may not happen. The Titans should find themselves 14-0, but the Steelers and Colts will be a tough finish, especially with home-field already locked up at that point...
NFC North Bunched-up
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -4
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers -4. Green Bay wins it 27-17.
Result: Packers 37-3
Ok, now that's a little ridiculous. Green Bay has effectively shown that the Bears are falling, and will end up right where everyone thought they would...3rd in the division. It'll be a classic fight to the finish for first, as the Pack and Vikings have each taken one game head-to-head.
Offensively Anemic Birds
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Eagles -9. Philly hangs a big number on the hapless Bengals. 37-13.
Result: TIED 13-13
What the hell, Philly? I knew the Bengals would score 13, but you were supposed to hang a number on them! Where did McNabb's "good" offense go? They were shredding teams the first 2 weeks, and now they stink? Philly is headed for last in the still-difficult NFC East. Sorry birdies...
Much Needed, but too little too late?
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -5.5. New Orleans wins 34-21.
Result: Saints 30-20
They won, but are now 5-5, good for last in the NFC South, one behind Atlanta, 2 behind Tampa, and 3 behind division-leading Carolina. Can they make the playoffs? Yeah, sure. But they're going to have to win a whole lot of games, especially the rematches with their division opponents. Two more losses and they're 9-7, which won't be good enough to grab a wild card in a tough NFC.
Best in the South? Anybody see that coming?
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -14
O/U: 40
My pick: Lions +14. Carolina still wins 24-13.
Result: Panthers 31-22
This game wasn't too surprising, but did anybody think the Panthers would be 8-2? Delhomme is playing great, and Carolina has surprised a lot of people, including me. I'm not sure how far they'll go, but they're a lock for the playoffs already, and may be joining the Giants with a first-round bye!
Minny Falls Back
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Vikings +3.5. Tampa wins 23-20.
Result: Bucs 19-13
Minny didn't score in the second half. At all. Credit Tampa for stopping them every time, but Minnesota is in a tight division race. They need to find some offense. Now.
Blowout 49-er Style
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Rams +6. 49ers win it, but not by that much. 27-24.
Result: 49ers 35-16
This was a very nice first win for Mike Singletary. His team played great offensively, and didn't let the Rams get too much going on offense. The Rams surprised me a bit by not being more competitive. I thought this was an offense they could hold down a little better. Maybe the Rams just had a good few weeks in the middle of the season and have since gone back to being a pushover...
How good are the Cards?
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Cardinals -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -3. Arizona Whomps em 27-10.
Result: Cards 26-20
With Hasslebeck back, the Seahawks scored a little more than I thought they would, but Arizona still did what they need to do. Now 7-3, can the Cards compete for a playoff bye, or is that too much to ask? They play in an easy division, but have some tough out of conference games left. Arizona will end the playoff drought...but will they be a contender? Who knows. It's Arizona.
I Hate Officials SOOOOO MUCH!
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Steelers -5. Pittsburgh wins it 27-21.
Result: Steelers 11-10 (17-10, as far as I'm concerned)
What the hell? Stupid ass refs. Seriously, this blown call was because a group of refs "got confused". They thought the first lateral was illegal and went forward and the second was legal, but mistakely thought, somehow, that the first lateral touched the ground and was an incomplete pass. Not even close, morons. They looked at the replay, and upheld the TD. Then they conferenced, somehow confused each other, and overturned it. How does that even happen? And can't the league just add the points? It happened at the end anyway! I'll bet a lot of people lost a lot of money on this game and are VERY upset. I think one of the refs had money against the spread, and decided to confuse everyone so he could win his bet.
Romo's Back...
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cowboys -1.5. I just don't think Big D will settle for .500. Cowboys 30-13.
Result: Cowboys 14-10
The offense isn't quite back to being a juggernaut yet, but the Washington O struggled enough that 14 was all the Cowboys needed to get back on the winning track. Now that they're playing for a wild card, the rest of the NFC needs to understand that there is likely only one spot left. The Skins and the NFC South will be contending for it...we'll see who gets it.
Watch Your Backs Tony Kornheiser and Mike Tirico...
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Bills -5. Buffalo wins it 26-19.
Result: Browns 29-27
I knew I should have gone against this spread, but I didn't because I'm a fan. I'm not upset about MY loss, I'm upset about the Bills loss. As a hockey guy, I am very superstitious. So you can understand what went through my head when, as Longwell lined up a 47 yard field goal into the wind to win the game, Kornheiser and Tirico mentioned Norwood and "Wide Right" no less than 5 times each. They just kept saying it. Asses. Don't you know better? As soon as it got mentioned once, I knew we were screwed. You KNEW he was pushing that right. You don't mention things like that. It's like talking about the no-hitter while the game's in the 6th inning. YOU JUST DON'T DO IT!
Linebusters: 4-1 (27-27-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 12-3-1 (99-57-1)
Back to .500! Now that I've had two good weeks in a row, I have to keep it going!
You Still SUCK!
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -3.5. New England at home is an easy choice. 27-17.
Result: Jets 34-31 (ot)
This game does not prove to me that the Jets are any good. It proves that the entire AFC East is bad. Buffalo has no wins over a .500 team, and is now at the bottom of the division. Miami is Miami. And the Pats lost to the Jets. The team atop that division, New York, may win it...but they've lost to the Raiders. Sorry Jets fans, but you're about to find out what a really good team looks like. Tennessee's going to kick your ass. If not, I'll eat my words.
Depleted Denver Still Scoring
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6.5
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. It's just too high. Falcons win 34-31.
Result: Broncos 24-20
I expected Matt Ryan to put up more than 20, but credit a Denver squad that is pushing its way through injuries for still being able to score some points. That D won't take the Broncos very far, but in their division, 8-8 may be a playoff team...
Still Miami
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Raiders +10.5. Miami still gets it done 19-13.
Result: Miami 17-15
See how close I was? Miami is a team that plays to their opposition. That means a lot of close games, and a lot of bad losses.
Second-Best, or Super Bowl Favorite? Can't it be both?
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Giants -6.5. The Giants have to blow out one of these teams. 33-13.
Result: Giants 30-10
The Giants are clearly among the best teams in the NFL, but are they #1? With Tennessee at 10-0, you can't say the Giants are the best team, especially considering who they lost to. But if the two played head-to-head, I'd bet on a Giant win. So yes, the Giants are my super bowl favorite, yet I believe are currently the second-best team in the NFL.
Here they Come
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -8.5
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Texans +8.5. Colts win 27-21.
Result: Colts 33-27
See, these two teams tend to play close games. Anyway, the Colts are on their way back up. No, they won't be the prohibitive favorite out of the AFC, but they should have enough in the tank to make the playoffs, and can then figure things out from there. We know they have the talent, but can they put it all together?
So Kerry has an Arm...(the QB, not the senator...)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee's D is too much. 27-16.
Result: Titans 24-14
Collins has showed us a few times that he can come back from a deficit and still get his team a win, which is the one potential criticism of the Titans. Granted, part of that is because the Tennessee defense can totally shut teams down and not let them increase the lead. We'll see what happens if the Titans ever get down by 14+ with only 1 quarter to play. With that D, though, it may not happen. The Titans should find themselves 14-0, but the Steelers and Colts will be a tough finish, especially with home-field already locked up at that point...
NFC North Bunched-up
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -4
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers -4. Green Bay wins it 27-17.
Result: Packers 37-3
Ok, now that's a little ridiculous. Green Bay has effectively shown that the Bears are falling, and will end up right where everyone thought they would...3rd in the division. It'll be a classic fight to the finish for first, as the Pack and Vikings have each taken one game head-to-head.
Offensively Anemic Birds
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Eagles -9. Philly hangs a big number on the hapless Bengals. 37-13.
Result: TIED 13-13
What the hell, Philly? I knew the Bengals would score 13, but you were supposed to hang a number on them! Where did McNabb's "good" offense go? They were shredding teams the first 2 weeks, and now they stink? Philly is headed for last in the still-difficult NFC East. Sorry birdies...
Much Needed, but too little too late?
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -5.5. New Orleans wins 34-21.
Result: Saints 30-20
They won, but are now 5-5, good for last in the NFC South, one behind Atlanta, 2 behind Tampa, and 3 behind division-leading Carolina. Can they make the playoffs? Yeah, sure. But they're going to have to win a whole lot of games, especially the rematches with their division opponents. Two more losses and they're 9-7, which won't be good enough to grab a wild card in a tough NFC.
Best in the South? Anybody see that coming?
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -14
O/U: 40
My pick: Lions +14. Carolina still wins 24-13.
Result: Panthers 31-22
This game wasn't too surprising, but did anybody think the Panthers would be 8-2? Delhomme is playing great, and Carolina has surprised a lot of people, including me. I'm not sure how far they'll go, but they're a lock for the playoffs already, and may be joining the Giants with a first-round bye!
Minny Falls Back
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Vikings +3.5. Tampa wins 23-20.
Result: Bucs 19-13
Minny didn't score in the second half. At all. Credit Tampa for stopping them every time, but Minnesota is in a tight division race. They need to find some offense. Now.
Blowout 49-er Style
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Rams +6. 49ers win it, but not by that much. 27-24.
Result: 49ers 35-16
This was a very nice first win for Mike Singletary. His team played great offensively, and didn't let the Rams get too much going on offense. The Rams surprised me a bit by not being more competitive. I thought this was an offense they could hold down a little better. Maybe the Rams just had a good few weeks in the middle of the season and have since gone back to being a pushover...
How good are the Cards?
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Cardinals -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -3. Arizona Whomps em 27-10.
Result: Cards 26-20
With Hasslebeck back, the Seahawks scored a little more than I thought they would, but Arizona still did what they need to do. Now 7-3, can the Cards compete for a playoff bye, or is that too much to ask? They play in an easy division, but have some tough out of conference games left. Arizona will end the playoff drought...but will they be a contender? Who knows. It's Arizona.
I Hate Officials SOOOOO MUCH!
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Steelers -5. Pittsburgh wins it 27-21.
Result: Steelers 11-10 (17-10, as far as I'm concerned)
What the hell? Stupid ass refs. Seriously, this blown call was because a group of refs "got confused". They thought the first lateral was illegal and went forward and the second was legal, but mistakely thought, somehow, that the first lateral touched the ground and was an incomplete pass. Not even close, morons. They looked at the replay, and upheld the TD. Then they conferenced, somehow confused each other, and overturned it. How does that even happen? And can't the league just add the points? It happened at the end anyway! I'll bet a lot of people lost a lot of money on this game and are VERY upset. I think one of the refs had money against the spread, and decided to confuse everyone so he could win his bet.
Romo's Back...
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cowboys -1.5. I just don't think Big D will settle for .500. Cowboys 30-13.
Result: Cowboys 14-10
The offense isn't quite back to being a juggernaut yet, but the Washington O struggled enough that 14 was all the Cowboys needed to get back on the winning track. Now that they're playing for a wild card, the rest of the NFC needs to understand that there is likely only one spot left. The Skins and the NFC South will be contending for it...we'll see who gets it.
Watch Your Backs Tony Kornheiser and Mike Tirico...
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Bills -5. Buffalo wins it 26-19.
Result: Browns 29-27
I knew I should have gone against this spread, but I didn't because I'm a fan. I'm not upset about MY loss, I'm upset about the Bills loss. As a hockey guy, I am very superstitious. So you can understand what went through my head when, as Longwell lined up a 47 yard field goal into the wind to win the game, Kornheiser and Tirico mentioned Norwood and "Wide Right" no less than 5 times each. They just kept saying it. Asses. Don't you know better? As soon as it got mentioned once, I knew we were screwed. You KNEW he was pushing that right. You don't mention things like that. It's like talking about the no-hitter while the game's in the 6th inning. YOU JUST DON'T DO IT!
Thursday, November 13, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK ELEVEN
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Jets are getting better, but are not among the elite teams in the NFL. In other words, they should NOT be first place in the AFC East. The Pats know the division lead is on the line, and will be playing as such. The Jets may also be overconfident after destroying the Rams, which does not bode well for them.
Pats -3.5. New England at home is an easy choice. 27-17.
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6.5
O/U: 50.5
This is an awfully high line, and I'm tempted to go against it, but after they shut down the high-flying Saints, I would expect the Falcons to do the same to the Broncos. The other way you could look at it, though, is that they held down the league's #1 offense...can they come back just one week later and shut down the league's #2 O? Denver has no defense, though, which means Matt Ryan should have a field day. Even in a high-scoring affair, I like the Falcons, but a late TD will blow the spread.
Broncos +6.5. It's just too high. Falcons win 34-31.
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10.5
O/U: 38.5
I don't care how many games the Dolphins have won, or how far Oakland has to travel...I will not give Miami that many points. This could be a total blowout, but I doubt it. Miami plays down to the competition. Don't get me wrong, they'll win...but not by 11.
Raiders +10.5. Miami still gets it done 19-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 42
The Ravens have a great D, but at 6-3, I'd say they're overperforming. The Giants, on the other hand, are deserving of their 8-1 record, and I don't see Baltimore slowing them down. Both teams have won four games in a row, so something's gotta give. The Giants got housed by the Browns, beat the Steelers by a TD, and needed OT against the Bengals...so what happens in round 4 versus the AFC North?
Giants -6.5. The Giants have to blow out one of these teams. 33-13.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -8.5
O/U: 50.5
Why must this line be so high? I expect the Colts to win, because they still really need to...but they tend to play the Texans pretty close. I can't give them quite that many points.
Texans +8.5. Colts win 27-21.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
This could be a tough game for the undefeated Titans, as the Jaguars know they were supposed to be better than they currently are, and they'd love to get one big win to show everyone that they still do have talent. But the Titans are very good. Jacksonville can't run on that D. Garrard won't be able to pass much on that D. It's going to be another L for the Jags.
Titans -3. Tennessee's D is too much. 27-16.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -4
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
The Packers need a win to get back in the picture in the NFC North, and with their ability to intercept passes, Orton (or Grossman, depending on how everything works out) may have some issues with INTs. Green Bay at home is always tough...this game should be no different.
Packers -4. Green Bay wins it 27-17.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 42.5
The Eagles can hang up the cleats if they lose this one, so they're going to be playing hard. Cincy is really bad. Philly's D is awfully good. I doubt this will be a contest.
Eagles -9. Philly hangs a big number on the hapless Bengals. 37-13.
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 50
The Saints...yet another desperate team. They must win this game, and would like to make a statement in doing so. Thigpen (keep in mind he was a third-string QB) has been keeping the Chiefs very close the past few weeks, but I don't think they can stay with the high flying Saints unless they shut down Brees. I just don't see it happening.
Saints -5.5. New Orleans wins 34-21.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -14
O/U: 40
I hate to give any NFL team 14 points, but the Panthers do seem to have a penchant for blowing teams out at home. The Lions, however, are desperate to get a win. I don't know if the Panthers will put up enough points to win by 14 after a disappointing 17-6 win in Oakland. Plus playing multiple crappy teams in a row isn't always good for a solid football team, as concentration may start to fade a bit as they look ahead to the next two games, which are against better squads.
Lions +14. Carolina still wins 24-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 38.5
This has the potential to be a great game. Two teams fighting for division titles, two solid defenses, and two questionable offenses. I think the Bucs will pull it out at home, but by how much? They have been playing a lot of very close games this year. If they do win, I think it will be by a field goal. The chance that Minnesota may win, and the probability that Tampa will win by only a field goal, mean that I have to go against this one.
Vikings +3.5. Tampa wins 23-20.
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 44.5
What do I do with this game? Haslett is still well short of his presumed 6-win bonus, but Singletary has his guys playing with a lot of heart. I actually think this will turn into a close game.
Rams +6. 49ers win it, but not by that much. 27-24.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Cardinals -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
Come on now. What have I said about the Cards? They only lose on the east coast. Seattle is awful, and unless Arizona comes out totally flat, has no chance of winning this game.
Cards -3. Arizona Whomps em 27-10.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 43
Not only is Pittsburgh a pretty darn good team, but they're also in a playoff race with the Ravens, and can't afford to lose any games. The Chargers have been awful. They would have lost to the Chiefs if it weren't for a botched extra point and a questionable 2-point conversion call. The Pitt D is too good for the Chargers to score a ton of points, but I'm not sure how many points Pittsburgh will score either.
Steelers -5. Pittsburgh wins it 27-21.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
Yeah, I know what happened last time. But with Romo back, the Cowboys know they have some ground to make up thanks to his absence. The Skins started out great, but are falling back to the pack. They overperformed and won some close games, but now we get to see how good they really are.
Cowboys -1.5. I just don't think Big D will settle for .500. Cowboys 30-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -5
O/U: 42
Ahh, Monday Night at the Ralph. The Bills have fallen on tough times again, and this game is an absolute must-win. I worry that Cleveland feels the same way, but with all the talk about "giving up", whether it's true or not, I think the Browns are sufficiently distracted.
Bills -5. Buffalo wins it 26-19.
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Jets are getting better, but are not among the elite teams in the NFL. In other words, they should NOT be first place in the AFC East. The Pats know the division lead is on the line, and will be playing as such. The Jets may also be overconfident after destroying the Rams, which does not bode well for them.
Pats -3.5. New England at home is an easy choice. 27-17.
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6.5
O/U: 50.5
This is an awfully high line, and I'm tempted to go against it, but after they shut down the high-flying Saints, I would expect the Falcons to do the same to the Broncos. The other way you could look at it, though, is that they held down the league's #1 offense...can they come back just one week later and shut down the league's #2 O? Denver has no defense, though, which means Matt Ryan should have a field day. Even in a high-scoring affair, I like the Falcons, but a late TD will blow the spread.
Broncos +6.5. It's just too high. Falcons win 34-31.
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10.5
O/U: 38.5
I don't care how many games the Dolphins have won, or how far Oakland has to travel...I will not give Miami that many points. This could be a total blowout, but I doubt it. Miami plays down to the competition. Don't get me wrong, they'll win...but not by 11.
Raiders +10.5. Miami still gets it done 19-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 42
The Ravens have a great D, but at 6-3, I'd say they're overperforming. The Giants, on the other hand, are deserving of their 8-1 record, and I don't see Baltimore slowing them down. Both teams have won four games in a row, so something's gotta give. The Giants got housed by the Browns, beat the Steelers by a TD, and needed OT against the Bengals...so what happens in round 4 versus the AFC North?
Giants -6.5. The Giants have to blow out one of these teams. 33-13.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -8.5
O/U: 50.5
Why must this line be so high? I expect the Colts to win, because they still really need to...but they tend to play the Texans pretty close. I can't give them quite that many points.
Texans +8.5. Colts win 27-21.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
This could be a tough game for the undefeated Titans, as the Jaguars know they were supposed to be better than they currently are, and they'd love to get one big win to show everyone that they still do have talent. But the Titans are very good. Jacksonville can't run on that D. Garrard won't be able to pass much on that D. It's going to be another L for the Jags.
Titans -3. Tennessee's D is too much. 27-16.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -4
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
The Packers need a win to get back in the picture in the NFC North, and with their ability to intercept passes, Orton (or Grossman, depending on how everything works out) may have some issues with INTs. Green Bay at home is always tough...this game should be no different.
Packers -4. Green Bay wins it 27-17.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 42.5
The Eagles can hang up the cleats if they lose this one, so they're going to be playing hard. Cincy is really bad. Philly's D is awfully good. I doubt this will be a contest.
Eagles -9. Philly hangs a big number on the hapless Bengals. 37-13.
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 50
The Saints...yet another desperate team. They must win this game, and would like to make a statement in doing so. Thigpen (keep in mind he was a third-string QB) has been keeping the Chiefs very close the past few weeks, but I don't think they can stay with the high flying Saints unless they shut down Brees. I just don't see it happening.
Saints -5.5. New Orleans wins 34-21.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -14
O/U: 40
I hate to give any NFL team 14 points, but the Panthers do seem to have a penchant for blowing teams out at home. The Lions, however, are desperate to get a win. I don't know if the Panthers will put up enough points to win by 14 after a disappointing 17-6 win in Oakland. Plus playing multiple crappy teams in a row isn't always good for a solid football team, as concentration may start to fade a bit as they look ahead to the next two games, which are against better squads.
Lions +14. Carolina still wins 24-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 38.5
This has the potential to be a great game. Two teams fighting for division titles, two solid defenses, and two questionable offenses. I think the Bucs will pull it out at home, but by how much? They have been playing a lot of very close games this year. If they do win, I think it will be by a field goal. The chance that Minnesota may win, and the probability that Tampa will win by only a field goal, mean that I have to go against this one.
Vikings +3.5. Tampa wins 23-20.
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 44.5
What do I do with this game? Haslett is still well short of his presumed 6-win bonus, but Singletary has his guys playing with a lot of heart. I actually think this will turn into a close game.
Rams +6. 49ers win it, but not by that much. 27-24.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Cardinals -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
Come on now. What have I said about the Cards? They only lose on the east coast. Seattle is awful, and unless Arizona comes out totally flat, has no chance of winning this game.
Cards -3. Arizona Whomps em 27-10.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 43
Not only is Pittsburgh a pretty darn good team, but they're also in a playoff race with the Ravens, and can't afford to lose any games. The Chargers have been awful. They would have lost to the Chiefs if it weren't for a botched extra point and a questionable 2-point conversion call. The Pitt D is too good for the Chargers to score a ton of points, but I'm not sure how many points Pittsburgh will score either.
Steelers -5. Pittsburgh wins it 27-21.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
Yeah, I know what happened last time. But with Romo back, the Cowboys know they have some ground to make up thanks to his absence. The Skins started out great, but are falling back to the pack. They overperformed and won some close games, but now we get to see how good they really are.
Cowboys -1.5. I just don't think Big D will settle for .500. Cowboys 30-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -5
O/U: 42
Ahh, Monday Night at the Ralph. The Bills have fallen on tough times again, and this game is an absolute must-win. I worry that Cleveland feels the same way, but with all the talk about "giving up", whether it's true or not, I think the Browns are sufficiently distracted.
Bills -5. Buffalo wins it 26-19.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
RECAP - WEEK TEN
This Week: 9-5 (67-71-5)
Linebusters: 3-2 (23-26-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 13-1 (87-56)
So I finally had a good week. The Jets impressed, the Chargers continue to struggle, and the Falcons are looking even better than I thought. Buffalo may not make the playoffs now, though, which is a bummer after a 5-1 start. The AFC East is just too good to drop 3 games in a row, especially to the other teams in the division. What an epic choke job...
Speaking of Choke Jobs...
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
My Pick: Broncos +3. Denver needs this one. 33-20.
Result: Broncos 34-30
Cleveland has the offense working now, but can't get any help from the defense late in games. Twice they've been overtaken late, once by the offensive juggernaut of the Baltimore Ravens. That's not a good sign. It seems like the Browns can get ahead, but just don't know how to win. They can't finish games. They're all but out of playoff contention at this point. The Broncos are in a tough battle with the Chargers for the West crown. Neither is playing well. Coming down the stretch, the AFC West will go to the team that sucks less...
NOW they score points...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Line: Jags -6.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Lions +6.5. Jacksonville Still Wins 24-20.
Result: Jags 38-14
Nice Jacksonville. Wait until after you lose to the Browns and Bengals before you put up any points so that I will finally lose my faith in you and pick you to not cover against the lowly Lions. Now I' really hoping for 0-16 in Detroit!
New NFL Superpower
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38-5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee Remains Perfect 23-17.
Result: Titans 21-14
Tennessee is very good. But can they win a non-defensive game? The Titans do a great job controlling the clock and forcing their opponent to play at their pace. The biggest roadblock to 16-0 could be week 17, as the Titans, who will have everything locked up by then, travel to Indy to face a Colt team that may stll be fighting for the postseason.
Tough Times in WNY
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Pats -3.5. Bills fall to 5-4 at the hands of the Pats, 27-23.
Result: Pats 20-10
We were all so excited. Our beloved Buffalo Bills were 5-1 for the first time since the 1994 season that saw us march to our fourth consecutive super bowl. We'd rather not talk about what happened in those super bowls, but hey, we had made it that far...That was just 3 weeks ago...and the mood has changed drastically. We've lost to all three teams in our division, and sit tied for last at 5-4, with New England and the Jets in front of us. Ouch. Arizona is on their way to the playoffs, and if the Bills can't get there, they will become the team with the longest postseason vacation in the NFL...
Can They Really?
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints +1. New Orleans wins 37-27.
Result: Falcons 34-20
A new coach and a young new QB have people in Falconland thinking about the playoffs, and forgetting all about that dogfighting guy...what was his name again? But can the Falcons really make the playoffs? They've beaten New Orleans. But two of their three losses are to Carolina and Tampa. So at 6-3, they have a good shot, but they must get by their divisional foes the second time around if they have designs on winning the NFC South.
Where did this come from?
St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Rams +8. Jets still win it 23-21.
Result: Jets 47-3
Wow. I was way off base. Not only did the Jets crush the Rams, making them look far worse than anticipated, but the Jets won this game with consistency. Brett Favre wasn't magical, throwing multiple 40+yard touchdown passes and blowing the Rams away. Instead, the run game was consistent, and Brett did what he needed to do to get the Jets in the endzone on each drive. The defense was stout, and allowed very little. I still don't think the Jets are a playoff team, but I've been wrong before.
Seattle Should Move to Florida...
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -8.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seattle +8.5. I think the Fins will win it by a touchdown 20-13.
Result: Dolphins 21-19
Seattle is having a very tough year, but is 2-0 against the spread in Florida. Granted they didn't win either of those games, but if they could play down there every week, they might eventually have a shot at a W. Miami continues to do what is needed to win games...who knows where they'll end up?
Defense wins championships...and screws me against the spread...
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Minnesota -2.5. GB has no answer for AP. Minny wins 27-21.
Result: Minnesota 28-27
Come on. Really? Green Bay was totally outmatched in this game, but managed to return a kick and an interception for touchdowns, thus beating the spread. Minnesota is now back where they want to be, on track for a playoff berth and an NFC North title...but there are a couple of good teams who will have something to say about that, so the Vikings will need to keep winning. If they falter, the Bears or Packers could easily step in.
Way too close
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers -9.5. Carolina Crushes Oakland 37-10.
Result: Panthers 17-6
You can only imagine what was going through my mind, when the Panthers were driving with just minutes left on the clock and a 14-6 lead. Please, Please, PLEASE kick the damn field goal. They did. But they still only scored 17 against a Raider defense with no confidence in the team or the direction in which it is going, so Carolina may have its hands full next week against Atlanta.
Really Herm?
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -15.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Chiefs +15.5. San Diego wins 27-13.
Result: Chargers 20-19
The Denver Broncos can pull that crap off. But when the Kansas City Chiefs try for a 2-point conversion to win instead of the extra point to tie, they deserve to be stopped. You are not good enough to pull that off. Herm should have taken the point and gone to OT. That said, I wonder how it feels to be the Chargers...screwed over multiple times early in the year, now they get a win handed to them...and in the same fashion in which one was stolen away in week 2!
Back and Forth
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Colts +3. Indy HAS TO get things going NOW. Colts 24-13.
Result: Colts 24-20
Now Indy has a shot. They're 5-4, as are a number of other teams in the AFC, and Dungy may have a chance at getting his boys to the postseason. It's tough to say how they'll play week in and week out, as they've been very inconsistent, but I expect things to even out a bit. The Steelers are now 6-3, even though it feels like they lose every week. They're all set for a playoff bid, as Cleveland and Cincy aren't really going to challenge for that division. Baltimore could make things interesting, but since they can't beat the Steelers, things should still go Pittsburgh's way.
Glad I got on Board...
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants +3. New York proves they're the Beast of the East. 27-20.
Result: Giants 36-31
Philly still hasn't won in the division. That means playoffs are a very unlikely finish to the year for a Philly team that is quite good, and sitting at 5-4. The Giants are all but a lock in the division and in the NFC. But is home field advantage a good thing for New York? All of last year's damage was done on the road...
Still a Stud
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 42
My Pick: Ravens -1. Baltimore wins 23-21.
Result: Ravens 41-13
He may be getting older, but Ray Lewis is still one of the best linebackers in the NFL. 8 tackles and 2 interceptions...by a linebacker! He always knows where to be, lays guys out, and has helped to make Baltimore synonymous with defense. The Ravens are quietly 6-3, and may be making a run to the playoffs.
Who's at quarterback? What's at Wide Receiver? I don't know what the hell is going on!?
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -9.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -9.5. Arizona is awfully good at home. 31-10.
Result: Cards 29-24
Shaun Hill? Josh Morgan? Who are these people? Well, a 7th year QB out of Maryland and a rookie wide out from Va Tech...but where did they come from? Who cares? They did the best they could against a solid Cardinals team, and almost came up with a win. Why wouldn't you throw on 3rd and goal from the 2 1/2 yard line with 3 seconds left? Singletary's decision may have cost the team a win. That said, he has his players playing a lot harder, with much more confidence. Arizona is 3 games over .500 for the first time since 1988, and is very likely a playoff team. We'll see what transpires down the road, but I feel like I must mention that all 3 Cards losses are in games played on the East Coast, and all 6 wins were played elsewhere...
Byes: CIN, DAL, TB, WAS
Linebusters: 3-2 (23-26-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 13-1 (87-56)
So I finally had a good week. The Jets impressed, the Chargers continue to struggle, and the Falcons are looking even better than I thought. Buffalo may not make the playoffs now, though, which is a bummer after a 5-1 start. The AFC East is just too good to drop 3 games in a row, especially to the other teams in the division. What an epic choke job...
Speaking of Choke Jobs...
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
My Pick: Broncos +3. Denver needs this one. 33-20.
Result: Broncos 34-30
Cleveland has the offense working now, but can't get any help from the defense late in games. Twice they've been overtaken late, once by the offensive juggernaut of the Baltimore Ravens. That's not a good sign. It seems like the Browns can get ahead, but just don't know how to win. They can't finish games. They're all but out of playoff contention at this point. The Broncos are in a tough battle with the Chargers for the West crown. Neither is playing well. Coming down the stretch, the AFC West will go to the team that sucks less...
NOW they score points...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Line: Jags -6.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Lions +6.5. Jacksonville Still Wins 24-20.
Result: Jags 38-14
Nice Jacksonville. Wait until after you lose to the Browns and Bengals before you put up any points so that I will finally lose my faith in you and pick you to not cover against the lowly Lions. Now I' really hoping for 0-16 in Detroit!
New NFL Superpower
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38-5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee Remains Perfect 23-17.
Result: Titans 21-14
Tennessee is very good. But can they win a non-defensive game? The Titans do a great job controlling the clock and forcing their opponent to play at their pace. The biggest roadblock to 16-0 could be week 17, as the Titans, who will have everything locked up by then, travel to Indy to face a Colt team that may stll be fighting for the postseason.
Tough Times in WNY
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Pats -3.5. Bills fall to 5-4 at the hands of the Pats, 27-23.
Result: Pats 20-10
We were all so excited. Our beloved Buffalo Bills were 5-1 for the first time since the 1994 season that saw us march to our fourth consecutive super bowl. We'd rather not talk about what happened in those super bowls, but hey, we had made it that far...That was just 3 weeks ago...and the mood has changed drastically. We've lost to all three teams in our division, and sit tied for last at 5-4, with New England and the Jets in front of us. Ouch. Arizona is on their way to the playoffs, and if the Bills can't get there, they will become the team with the longest postseason vacation in the NFL...
Can They Really?
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints +1. New Orleans wins 37-27.
Result: Falcons 34-20
A new coach and a young new QB have people in Falconland thinking about the playoffs, and forgetting all about that dogfighting guy...what was his name again? But can the Falcons really make the playoffs? They've beaten New Orleans. But two of their three losses are to Carolina and Tampa. So at 6-3, they have a good shot, but they must get by their divisional foes the second time around if they have designs on winning the NFC South.
Where did this come from?
St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Rams +8. Jets still win it 23-21.
Result: Jets 47-3
Wow. I was way off base. Not only did the Jets crush the Rams, making them look far worse than anticipated, but the Jets won this game with consistency. Brett Favre wasn't magical, throwing multiple 40+yard touchdown passes and blowing the Rams away. Instead, the run game was consistent, and Brett did what he needed to do to get the Jets in the endzone on each drive. The defense was stout, and allowed very little. I still don't think the Jets are a playoff team, but I've been wrong before.
Seattle Should Move to Florida...
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -8.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seattle +8.5. I think the Fins will win it by a touchdown 20-13.
Result: Dolphins 21-19
Seattle is having a very tough year, but is 2-0 against the spread in Florida. Granted they didn't win either of those games, but if they could play down there every week, they might eventually have a shot at a W. Miami continues to do what is needed to win games...who knows where they'll end up?
Defense wins championships...and screws me against the spread...
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Minnesota -2.5. GB has no answer for AP. Minny wins 27-21.
Result: Minnesota 28-27
Come on. Really? Green Bay was totally outmatched in this game, but managed to return a kick and an interception for touchdowns, thus beating the spread. Minnesota is now back where they want to be, on track for a playoff berth and an NFC North title...but there are a couple of good teams who will have something to say about that, so the Vikings will need to keep winning. If they falter, the Bears or Packers could easily step in.
Way too close
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers -9.5. Carolina Crushes Oakland 37-10.
Result: Panthers 17-6
You can only imagine what was going through my mind, when the Panthers were driving with just minutes left on the clock and a 14-6 lead. Please, Please, PLEASE kick the damn field goal. They did. But they still only scored 17 against a Raider defense with no confidence in the team or the direction in which it is going, so Carolina may have its hands full next week against Atlanta.
Really Herm?
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -15.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Chiefs +15.5. San Diego wins 27-13.
Result: Chargers 20-19
The Denver Broncos can pull that crap off. But when the Kansas City Chiefs try for a 2-point conversion to win instead of the extra point to tie, they deserve to be stopped. You are not good enough to pull that off. Herm should have taken the point and gone to OT. That said, I wonder how it feels to be the Chargers...screwed over multiple times early in the year, now they get a win handed to them...and in the same fashion in which one was stolen away in week 2!
Back and Forth
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Colts +3. Indy HAS TO get things going NOW. Colts 24-13.
Result: Colts 24-20
Now Indy has a shot. They're 5-4, as are a number of other teams in the AFC, and Dungy may have a chance at getting his boys to the postseason. It's tough to say how they'll play week in and week out, as they've been very inconsistent, but I expect things to even out a bit. The Steelers are now 6-3, even though it feels like they lose every week. They're all set for a playoff bid, as Cleveland and Cincy aren't really going to challenge for that division. Baltimore could make things interesting, but since they can't beat the Steelers, things should still go Pittsburgh's way.
Glad I got on Board...
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants +3. New York proves they're the Beast of the East. 27-20.
Result: Giants 36-31
Philly still hasn't won in the division. That means playoffs are a very unlikely finish to the year for a Philly team that is quite good, and sitting at 5-4. The Giants are all but a lock in the division and in the NFC. But is home field advantage a good thing for New York? All of last year's damage was done on the road...
Still a Stud
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 42
My Pick: Ravens -1. Baltimore wins 23-21.
Result: Ravens 41-13
He may be getting older, but Ray Lewis is still one of the best linebackers in the NFL. 8 tackles and 2 interceptions...by a linebacker! He always knows where to be, lays guys out, and has helped to make Baltimore synonymous with defense. The Ravens are quietly 6-3, and may be making a run to the playoffs.
Who's at quarterback? What's at Wide Receiver? I don't know what the hell is going on!?
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -9.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -9.5. Arizona is awfully good at home. 31-10.
Result: Cards 29-24
Shaun Hill? Josh Morgan? Who are these people? Well, a 7th year QB out of Maryland and a rookie wide out from Va Tech...but where did they come from? Who cares? They did the best they could against a solid Cardinals team, and almost came up with a win. Why wouldn't you throw on 3rd and goal from the 2 1/2 yard line with 3 seconds left? Singletary's decision may have cost the team a win. That said, he has his players playing a lot harder, with much more confidence. Arizona is 3 games over .500 for the first time since 1988, and is very likely a playoff team. We'll see what transpires down the road, but I feel like I must mention that all 3 Cards losses are in games played on the East Coast, and all 6 wins were played elsewhere...
Byes: CIN, DAL, TB, WAS
Thursday, November 6, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK TEN
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
I'm tempted to take the Browns, who have been playing much better as of late. But with the quarterback change and a Sunday to Thursday turnaround (meaning Quinn hasn't had "starter" reps for very long in practice...), I'm not sure if the offense will be in synch. Denver has lost three in a row after a 4-1 start, and knows that it's opening the door for San Diego to get back on their feet and claim the division that everyone "knew" they'd win when the season began. For that reason, I have to go with the Broncs.
Broncos +3. Denver needs this one. 33-20.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Line: Jags -6.5
O/U: 44.5
What have we learned about picking the Jags to cover a high line? The Lions are awful, and I don't expect Culpepper to help much, as he won't know the offense yet, nor will he have any chemistry with his receivers. Jacksonville may be struggling, but they can't break the streaks of both winless teams, can they? Detroit knows they can win this game, and will be playing as such. Even if they don't pull it out, they keep it close.
Lions +6.5. Jacksonville Still Wins 24-20.
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38-5
Linebuster!
Chicago will need to score at least 2 defensive touchdowns to win this game, especially if our old buddy Rex gets the start over a banged-up Orton. That is highly unlikely.
Titans -3. Tennessee Remains Perfect 23-17.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Pats return to Foxboro...after a loss...to face the Bills...who are struggling. Every part of that sentence favors the Pats. If the Bills come out with a mindset of getting revenge for all of the beatdowns the Pats have laid on them in the last few years, they may be able to pull it out. But I'm not betting on it.
Pats -3.5. Bills fall to 5-4 at the hands of the Pats, 27-23.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 50
Coming off the bye week, I think the Saints will put up a good effort and show the league why the Falcons are overperforming. Atlanta is a great story, but they're not the best team in their division, and New Orleans needs to prove it.
Saints +1. New Orleans wins 37-27.
St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
Are you kidding me? They may have beaten the Bills, but the Jets are no juggernaut. The Rams have been good since the coaching change, and despite a stumble last week, I think they'll easily cover against the Jets. New York hasn't played well against its lesser opponents thus far (they lost to the freaking Raiders...), and could very well lose this game. At the very least it will be close.
Rams +8. Jets still win it 23-21.
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -8.5
O/U: 43
The Fins should win this game. Seattle has to travel all the way across the country, corner to corner...longest flight in football if I'm not mistaken. The last time the Seahawks went to Florida, however, they hung around with the Bucs, and ended up covering the spread. Miami is due for a letdown, and has played its best football against its best opponents...a category in which Seattle does not fall. Not an upset. Just a cover.
Seattle +8.5. I think the Fins will win it by a touchdown 20-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 45.5
Who wants it more? That's all this game comes down to. It's in Minnesota, so advantage Minny. I'm tempted to go with Minnesota, just because the Pack won the last one, but that's not always how football works. The reason for this pick? Green Bay is 27th in the league against the run. Adrian Peterson is good at "the run". Especially at home.
Minnesota -2.5. GB has no answer for AP. Minny wins 27-21.
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
Can anyone explain to me why the Raiders just released their best player? Al Davis is a moron. Gibril Wilson came out and said that by releasing one of the best guys on the team, it looks to the rest of the staff as though the Raiders are just giving up. That attitude will not foster wins, and Oakland will get blown out again.
Panthers -9.5. Carolina Crushes Oakland 37-10.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -15.5
O/U: 47.5
What? Now all of a sudden oddsmakers think the Chiefs can't score? The last two weeks they've proven me wrong and put up decent point totals. San Diego may be coming off a bye week, and they may be at home, and they may be a far better team, and they may be fighting for the division, but I will NOT give a team that many points unless I am sure they will perform at the top of their game. I can't be sure of a Charger team that has been very inconsistent thus far. Plus KC always fights for divisional games, and even if they can't bring the fight to the Chargers, even a small coup d'etat would cover that spread.
Chiefs +15.5. San Diego wins 27-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: N/A
Nobody has an over/under yet, and only one of my sources has a line. I guess nobody wants to touch this one without knowing how long Ben will be out in Pittsburgh. I don't care who plays QB, because I think Indy needs this game bad enough to win either way. It'll be close, but if there's anyone in the league that can beat the Steelers' blitz coverages, it's Peyton Manning.
Colts +3. Indy HAS TO get things going NOW. Colts 24-13.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 43
Ok, ok. I respect the Giants. Philly is good, but I think the Giants' D will not allow the Eagles to get much going, and the Giants will grind out a win. Not to mention Philly hasn't won in the division yet.
Giants +3. New York proves they're the Beast of the East. 27-20.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 42
Houston will have a lot of trouble moving the ball against an excellent Baltimore D, and Flacco has been playing pretty well. It should be close, but I think the Ravens can pull it out.
Ravens -1. Baltimore wins 23-21.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -9.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
I hate to linebust on a huge spread, but the Cardinals are annihilating everyone at home. And the 49ers aren't that good yet. Singletary will get his guys in line, but unless he suits up for them, the 49ers will struggle for a few more weeks. Plus Arizona would love to prove themselves to the world on Monday Night!
Cards -9.5. Arizona is awfully good at home. 31-10.
Byes: CIN, DAL, TB, WAS
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
I'm tempted to take the Browns, who have been playing much better as of late. But with the quarterback change and a Sunday to Thursday turnaround (meaning Quinn hasn't had "starter" reps for very long in practice...), I'm not sure if the offense will be in synch. Denver has lost three in a row after a 4-1 start, and knows that it's opening the door for San Diego to get back on their feet and claim the division that everyone "knew" they'd win when the season began. For that reason, I have to go with the Broncs.
Broncos +3. Denver needs this one. 33-20.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Line: Jags -6.5
O/U: 44.5
What have we learned about picking the Jags to cover a high line? The Lions are awful, and I don't expect Culpepper to help much, as he won't know the offense yet, nor will he have any chemistry with his receivers. Jacksonville may be struggling, but they can't break the streaks of both winless teams, can they? Detroit knows they can win this game, and will be playing as such. Even if they don't pull it out, they keep it close.
Lions +6.5. Jacksonville Still Wins 24-20.
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38-5
Linebuster!
Chicago will need to score at least 2 defensive touchdowns to win this game, especially if our old buddy Rex gets the start over a banged-up Orton. That is highly unlikely.
Titans -3. Tennessee Remains Perfect 23-17.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Pats return to Foxboro...after a loss...to face the Bills...who are struggling. Every part of that sentence favors the Pats. If the Bills come out with a mindset of getting revenge for all of the beatdowns the Pats have laid on them in the last few years, they may be able to pull it out. But I'm not betting on it.
Pats -3.5. Bills fall to 5-4 at the hands of the Pats, 27-23.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 50
Coming off the bye week, I think the Saints will put up a good effort and show the league why the Falcons are overperforming. Atlanta is a great story, but they're not the best team in their division, and New Orleans needs to prove it.
Saints +1. New Orleans wins 37-27.
St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
Are you kidding me? They may have beaten the Bills, but the Jets are no juggernaut. The Rams have been good since the coaching change, and despite a stumble last week, I think they'll easily cover against the Jets. New York hasn't played well against its lesser opponents thus far (they lost to the freaking Raiders...), and could very well lose this game. At the very least it will be close.
Rams +8. Jets still win it 23-21.
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -8.5
O/U: 43
The Fins should win this game. Seattle has to travel all the way across the country, corner to corner...longest flight in football if I'm not mistaken. The last time the Seahawks went to Florida, however, they hung around with the Bucs, and ended up covering the spread. Miami is due for a letdown, and has played its best football against its best opponents...a category in which Seattle does not fall. Not an upset. Just a cover.
Seattle +8.5. I think the Fins will win it by a touchdown 20-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 45.5
Who wants it more? That's all this game comes down to. It's in Minnesota, so advantage Minny. I'm tempted to go with Minnesota, just because the Pack won the last one, but that's not always how football works. The reason for this pick? Green Bay is 27th in the league against the run. Adrian Peterson is good at "the run". Especially at home.
Minnesota -2.5. GB has no answer for AP. Minny wins 27-21.
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
Can anyone explain to me why the Raiders just released their best player? Al Davis is a moron. Gibril Wilson came out and said that by releasing one of the best guys on the team, it looks to the rest of the staff as though the Raiders are just giving up. That attitude will not foster wins, and Oakland will get blown out again.
Panthers -9.5. Carolina Crushes Oakland 37-10.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -15.5
O/U: 47.5
What? Now all of a sudden oddsmakers think the Chiefs can't score? The last two weeks they've proven me wrong and put up decent point totals. San Diego may be coming off a bye week, and they may be at home, and they may be a far better team, and they may be fighting for the division, but I will NOT give a team that many points unless I am sure they will perform at the top of their game. I can't be sure of a Charger team that has been very inconsistent thus far. Plus KC always fights for divisional games, and even if they can't bring the fight to the Chargers, even a small coup d'etat would cover that spread.
Chiefs +15.5. San Diego wins 27-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: N/A
Nobody has an over/under yet, and only one of my sources has a line. I guess nobody wants to touch this one without knowing how long Ben will be out in Pittsburgh. I don't care who plays QB, because I think Indy needs this game bad enough to win either way. It'll be close, but if there's anyone in the league that can beat the Steelers' blitz coverages, it's Peyton Manning.
Colts +3. Indy HAS TO get things going NOW. Colts 24-13.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 43
Ok, ok. I respect the Giants. Philly is good, but I think the Giants' D will not allow the Eagles to get much going, and the Giants will grind out a win. Not to mention Philly hasn't won in the division yet.
Giants +3. New York proves they're the Beast of the East. 27-20.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 42
Houston will have a lot of trouble moving the ball against an excellent Baltimore D, and Flacco has been playing pretty well. It should be close, but I think the Ravens can pull it out.
Ravens -1. Baltimore wins 23-21.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -9.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
I hate to linebust on a huge spread, but the Cardinals are annihilating everyone at home. And the 49ers aren't that good yet. Singletary will get his guys in line, but unless he suits up for them, the 49ers will struggle for a few more weeks. Plus Arizona would love to prove themselves to the world on Monday Night!
Cards -9.5. Arizona is awfully good at home. 31-10.
Byes: CIN, DAL, TB, WAS
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
RECAP - WEEK NINE
This Week: 7-7 (58-66-5)
Linebusters: 4-1 (20-24-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 11-3 (74-55)
At this point in the season, I'm fine with going .500. At least my linebusters meant something for once! I wish I hadn't gone with "my team" on the last one, or I may have gone 5-0!
Still not Positive
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -4.5
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings -4.5. Minnesota is rested and ready to win. 27-20.
Result: Vikings 28-21
Minnesota won, but not be a whole lot. That either means the Vikings still aren't playing that well, or that Houston has gotten good. I'd guess it's the prior.
One down, one to go...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Jags -8
O/U: 40
My Pick: Jags -8. Hate to say the Jags will win big...but I'm going to. 24-13.
Result: Bengals 21-19
You know I want to see 16-0...so now it's all on the ample shoulders of the Detroit Lions. Of course, they hung with the Bears, so I'll bet they do end up winning a couple games. The Jags SUCK. Unbelieveable how bad this season turned out to be for them.
I do this to myself...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bucs -9
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Bucs -9. Last week was an enigma. Chiefs are back (not a good thing!). Bucs 27-9.
Result: Bucs 30-27 (ot)
Like the game before (Jax @ Cin), I had strong reasons to pick the game the other way, and didn't go with my gut. The spread was just too big. KC came out playing far better than expected, but Tampa tends to allow lesser teams to hang around. They showed a lot by coming all the way back with an offense that people tend to underestimate.
Old Browns vs. New Browns
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -1.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens +1.5. Baltimore wins a tough battle 20-17.
Result: Ravens 37-27
Had Baltimore never left Cleveland, how much happier would those fans be? They've won a super bowl! And they keep beating up on the "new" Browns. Baltimore may not be able to contend for the playoffs, but they're close. One win people don't expect, and they're right in the conversation. Like Tampa, coming back from down 14 points is huge for a team that relies heavily on its D to win games.
Son of a...
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -5.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -5.5. Come on Buffalo. Prove you are among the AFC's Elite. 27-13.
Result: Jets 26-17
Two weeks ago, I had a conversation with another Bills fan outlining the remaining schedule and discussing how many games the Bills might win the rest of the season. He had them ending up at 13-3 or 14-2. They did have an easy schedule on paper, but now they've lost two of the ones they should have won, and have the Pats at Foxboro next week. Buffalo is in dire straits. How miserable would Western New York be if the Bills choked and failed to make the playoffs after a 5-1 start? It's possible. With a three-way tie atop the AFC East, and Miami sneaking up from behind, it's way too possible.
Playoff Certainty
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -3. Arizona comes out gunnin' 34-21.
Result: Cards 34-13
With this big win, Arizona has made a statement. Seattle, San Fran, and St. Louis will not challenge them. The longest playoff drought in the NFL will end this year. If Buffalo doesn't make it, they're the Cards successor as "the team that never sees the postseason."
First in the NFC North!
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -13
O/U: 43
My Pick: Lions +13. I have to say they keep it close. Bears win 27-17.
Result: Bears 27-23
With the win, as non-convincing as it was, Chicago moves to first in the North, a place no one thought they'd be at this point in the season. The Packers and Vikings are tied 1-game back. This will be a battle right up to season's end.
Still the Best
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -5.5. They really are that good. Titans 24-17.
Result: Titans 19-16 (ot)
The Packers' D played a heck of a game to hold down the Titans, but Tennessee seemed to be in control the whole game, despite needing extra time to win it. This is how the Titans play...they keep it close and bite you in the butt down the stretch. They may get caught napping in one of these close games, but I think the more likely way they'll lose is if they spot a team a double-digit lead and can't claw back. As long as it's close, the Titans have the game well in control.
Gut
Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 49
My Pick: Broncos -3. If this game were anywhere else, I'd go the other way. Mile High is a great Asset. Denver wins 31-23.
Result: Dolphins 26-17
My gut reaction was to pick Miami, but I went with Denver because they were at home. Stupid. Miami beats the good teams, and loses to the bad ones. We'll see how Denver rebounds, but it looks like San Diego could potentially choke themselves all the way to the playoffs.
Somebody forgot to bring the Offense...
Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta heads West and comes back with a W. 27-17.
Result: Falcons 24-0
If you hold a team under 100 yards of total offense for a whole game, you're going to win. Ryan played fine, and the Falcons got another big win. Oakland is getting worse...
I Believe
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Cowboys +9. They have to keep this close. Giants win 23-20.
Result: Giants 35-14
I give up. I can't complain about New York's injuries anymore. The Giants are the league's second best team, only because the Titans haven't lost, and should be the odds-on favorite to win the super bowl. They have the playoff experience, and will have home field advantage for at least one playoff game this time around. I'm not sure if that's a positive, since they play better as the underdog road team...but they've got enough talent to go back to back.
Eastern Teams Have No Problem Going West...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Eagles -7. Philly comes out with an important win 27-13.
Result: Eagles 26-7
Yet another eastern team has won out west. No western teams seem to win in the east. Why? Because the AFC and NFC West are likely the worst two divisions in football. It's not rocket science, or some weird trend...it makes sense! We'll see what Philly can put together to make a run at the wild card spot. The Giants will take the division, but the other three teams all still have a shot at a wild card.
A win's a win
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 44
My pick: Colts -5.5. Indy wins 31-17.
Result: Colts 18-15
Indy needed the win. It wasn't pretty, but they got it. Now they can still fight for a wild card. The Pats usually come off a loss with a great deal of passion the next week. Especially at home. This does not bode well for my Bills.
The Benefit of Having a Good Backup QB
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -1.5
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers +1.5. Parker gets back in the swing of things. Pittsburgh wins 24-19.
Result: Steelers 23-6
Ben went down, Leftwich still went deep, stunning the Skins, and leading Pittsburgh to a big win. If they had a Brad Johnson or Matt Cassel, the Steelers may not have been able to pull away. You had to know Washington would have trouble getting much going agianst one of the best defenses in the league, but 6 points? Ouch. We'll see what happens down the road, but I think the Skins will either be the 6-seed or the odd man out when playoff time arrives.
BYES: NO, SD, SF, CAR
Linebusters: 4-1 (20-24-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 11-3 (74-55)
At this point in the season, I'm fine with going .500. At least my linebusters meant something for once! I wish I hadn't gone with "my team" on the last one, or I may have gone 5-0!
Still not Positive
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -4.5
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings -4.5. Minnesota is rested and ready to win. 27-20.
Result: Vikings 28-21
Minnesota won, but not be a whole lot. That either means the Vikings still aren't playing that well, or that Houston has gotten good. I'd guess it's the prior.
One down, one to go...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Jags -8
O/U: 40
My Pick: Jags -8. Hate to say the Jags will win big...but I'm going to. 24-13.
Result: Bengals 21-19
You know I want to see 16-0...so now it's all on the ample shoulders of the Detroit Lions. Of course, they hung with the Bears, so I'll bet they do end up winning a couple games. The Jags SUCK. Unbelieveable how bad this season turned out to be for them.
I do this to myself...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bucs -9
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Bucs -9. Last week was an enigma. Chiefs are back (not a good thing!). Bucs 27-9.
Result: Bucs 30-27 (ot)
Like the game before (Jax @ Cin), I had strong reasons to pick the game the other way, and didn't go with my gut. The spread was just too big. KC came out playing far better than expected, but Tampa tends to allow lesser teams to hang around. They showed a lot by coming all the way back with an offense that people tend to underestimate.
Old Browns vs. New Browns
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -1.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens +1.5. Baltimore wins a tough battle 20-17.
Result: Ravens 37-27
Had Baltimore never left Cleveland, how much happier would those fans be? They've won a super bowl! And they keep beating up on the "new" Browns. Baltimore may not be able to contend for the playoffs, but they're close. One win people don't expect, and they're right in the conversation. Like Tampa, coming back from down 14 points is huge for a team that relies heavily on its D to win games.
Son of a...
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -5.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -5.5. Come on Buffalo. Prove you are among the AFC's Elite. 27-13.
Result: Jets 26-17
Two weeks ago, I had a conversation with another Bills fan outlining the remaining schedule and discussing how many games the Bills might win the rest of the season. He had them ending up at 13-3 or 14-2. They did have an easy schedule on paper, but now they've lost two of the ones they should have won, and have the Pats at Foxboro next week. Buffalo is in dire straits. How miserable would Western New York be if the Bills choked and failed to make the playoffs after a 5-1 start? It's possible. With a three-way tie atop the AFC East, and Miami sneaking up from behind, it's way too possible.
Playoff Certainty
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -3. Arizona comes out gunnin' 34-21.
Result: Cards 34-13
With this big win, Arizona has made a statement. Seattle, San Fran, and St. Louis will not challenge them. The longest playoff drought in the NFL will end this year. If Buffalo doesn't make it, they're the Cards successor as "the team that never sees the postseason."
First in the NFC North!
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -13
O/U: 43
My Pick: Lions +13. I have to say they keep it close. Bears win 27-17.
Result: Bears 27-23
With the win, as non-convincing as it was, Chicago moves to first in the North, a place no one thought they'd be at this point in the season. The Packers and Vikings are tied 1-game back. This will be a battle right up to season's end.
Still the Best
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -5.5. They really are that good. Titans 24-17.
Result: Titans 19-16 (ot)
The Packers' D played a heck of a game to hold down the Titans, but Tennessee seemed to be in control the whole game, despite needing extra time to win it. This is how the Titans play...they keep it close and bite you in the butt down the stretch. They may get caught napping in one of these close games, but I think the more likely way they'll lose is if they spot a team a double-digit lead and can't claw back. As long as it's close, the Titans have the game well in control.
Gut
Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 49
My Pick: Broncos -3. If this game were anywhere else, I'd go the other way. Mile High is a great Asset. Denver wins 31-23.
Result: Dolphins 26-17
My gut reaction was to pick Miami, but I went with Denver because they were at home. Stupid. Miami beats the good teams, and loses to the bad ones. We'll see how Denver rebounds, but it looks like San Diego could potentially choke themselves all the way to the playoffs.
Somebody forgot to bring the Offense...
Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta heads West and comes back with a W. 27-17.
Result: Falcons 24-0
If you hold a team under 100 yards of total offense for a whole game, you're going to win. Ryan played fine, and the Falcons got another big win. Oakland is getting worse...
I Believe
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Cowboys +9. They have to keep this close. Giants win 23-20.
Result: Giants 35-14
I give up. I can't complain about New York's injuries anymore. The Giants are the league's second best team, only because the Titans haven't lost, and should be the odds-on favorite to win the super bowl. They have the playoff experience, and will have home field advantage for at least one playoff game this time around. I'm not sure if that's a positive, since they play better as the underdog road team...but they've got enough talent to go back to back.
Eastern Teams Have No Problem Going West...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Eagles -7. Philly comes out with an important win 27-13.
Result: Eagles 26-7
Yet another eastern team has won out west. No western teams seem to win in the east. Why? Because the AFC and NFC West are likely the worst two divisions in football. It's not rocket science, or some weird trend...it makes sense! We'll see what Philly can put together to make a run at the wild card spot. The Giants will take the division, but the other three teams all still have a shot at a wild card.
A win's a win
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 44
My pick: Colts -5.5. Indy wins 31-17.
Result: Colts 18-15
Indy needed the win. It wasn't pretty, but they got it. Now they can still fight for a wild card. The Pats usually come off a loss with a great deal of passion the next week. Especially at home. This does not bode well for my Bills.
The Benefit of Having a Good Backup QB
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -1.5
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers +1.5. Parker gets back in the swing of things. Pittsburgh wins 24-19.
Result: Steelers 23-6
Ben went down, Leftwich still went deep, stunning the Skins, and leading Pittsburgh to a big win. If they had a Brad Johnson or Matt Cassel, the Steelers may not have been able to pull away. You had to know Washington would have trouble getting much going agianst one of the best defenses in the league, but 6 points? Ouch. We'll see what happens down the road, but I think the Skins will either be the 6-seed or the odd man out when playoff time arrives.
BYES: NO, SD, SF, CAR
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