PREVIEW - WEEK TWELVE

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -11
O/U: 34.5
Cincy will be without Ocho Cinco, but I'm not sure that will have much of an effect, as he hasn't done a whole lot this year. The Bengal offense is last in the league, but their D has been keeping them in games, specifically their passing D. Willie is back, though, so it could be a long night for the Bengals. It'll be cold, and it will snow all day, which likely means a very run-heavy game...as you can see, I'm moving back and forth on this one. Pittsburgh's D will be solid against the run, and Fitzpatrick can't do much of anything, but 11 points seems like a lot, even though Pittsburgh won by 28 last time. Cincy has gained a lot of confidence since then, and I doubt the Steelers will score a ton of points using the run game and ball control.
Bengals +11. I actually think it will be right on (24-13), but I'd rather go short just in case the Bengals keep it close again. Steelers 23-13!

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 50.5
Houston is ahead of Cleveland in nearly every statistical category, but Cleveland has been getting better as the season has progressed. It is also very tough to win on the road in the NFL, and though both teams played tough games last week, Houston has to travel again, Cleveland does not. Oh yes, I love intangibles.
Browns -3. Cleveland wins one for the Dog Pound 31-24.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bills -3
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
I told myself I wouldn't "line bust" on the Bills anymore, but this one is pretty obvious. If the Bills lose, they're totally done, though many Buffalo fans would argue that they are already out of contention. Buffalo needs this win BAD. And they'll get it.
Bills -3. Buffalo finally gets back on the horse 26-14.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 40.5
The only reason I won't linebust this is that the Titans tend to get involved in close games, so they could easily win by only a field goal. But they'll win regardless. The Jets still ARE NOT GOOD. Yes, they lead the AFC East, but that division has proven itself to be very inconsistent. If they beat the Titans, I will rescind my campaign against the Jets, and will re-examine how they came to lose to the Raiders, yet are atop the division.
Titans -5. Tennessee is legit. New York isn't. Titans 27-17.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -1
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Do the Patriots often lose two in a row? How about two in a row to one team? Let me assure you the answer to both of those is NO. The Pats were the first team the Fins broke out the Wildcat against. Now they know it's coming. Plus the Pats are fighting for a division. Belichek will not lose to the Fins again. If he does, the Pats' season will end on week 17.
Patriots +1. I can't believe I get points on this one! Pats win it 24-16.

San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -10
O/U: 46.5
Can I really give the Cowboys 10 points before they prove themselves? San Francisco is toward the bottom of the defensive ranks, and has had a hard time getting to the QB, which could mean Romo torches them. Of course, they did just play close with Arizona (another good passing attack), and have the added confidence of blowing out the Rams last week. My X-factor here is that, for the past few weeks, Dallas has been forced to win games with defense. So I'll bet that D is a bit tired, and will let Romo win this one.
49ers +10. Cowboys still win it 31-23.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bucs -8.5
O/U: 41.5
Vegas has learned its lesson...no more huge spread against the Lions. I'm still concerned about it being too high, though. I know Tampa has beaten every team in the NFC North but the Lions already, and that this one should be no problem. With Earnest Graham out, will the Bucs score enough points to cover? What am I thinking? That defense is sound, and Warrick Dunn is more than capable of shouldering the load without Graham.
Bucs -8.5. The Bucs should power by the Lions 23-13.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
Baltimore's only win over a .500+ team was Miami...and Miami plays down to the competition like no other team in the league. Philly, thanks to a tie last week, is still over .500. And after low offensive totals the last few weeks, with Westbrook in the lineup, McNabb must be pissed. Even against the solid Baltimore D, Philly will put up some points. And as the Philly D is pretty damn good too, Baltimore will struggle.
Philly +1. Eagles pull it out 23-9.

Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bears -8.5
O/U: 43
Chicago needs a win pretty badly, but with Bulger's statement of support for his coach this past week, I think this team will rally around him and play tough. Plus the last time the Rams lost four straight, they came back and beat the Skins and Boys in back to back weeks. At home, I think the Rams will play tough.
Rams +8.5. Chicago still wins a squeaker 24-21.

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
Why, you ask? Minnesota is fighting for something, and Jacksonville is done. Maybe they can play for pride and win some games they shouldn't down the stretch, but I don't think this will be one of them.
Vikings +2.5. Again, I can't believe I'm getting points here. Minny wins 23-17.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -1
O/U: 42.5
Carolina really overwhelmed the Falcons the last time the two met, and now that the Panthers are trying to hold off the Bucs for first in the division, they know they need to win this one. The Bucs are in Detroit, and will likely win, which means a Carolina loss would drop them down into a first place tie. They don't want that. The Falcons are good, but not "playoff good". They'll lose more than they win down the stretch.
Panthers +1. Carolina sweeps the season series 24-23.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Denver won the last meeting between these teams by 27, and that was in Oakland's house. Denver is a tough place to play, and without much to offer offensively, Oakland will get spanked. The only chance Oakland has is if Denver underestimates than and comes out flat (which is possible...) and they totally shut down Cutler and the Denver O...easier said than done.
Broncos -9.5. Denver crushes Oakland again 34-14.

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Skins -3.5
O/U: 40
My problem with this game is that Washington ends up playing like a bunch of idiots whenever they get on the field with a "lesser" team. Of course, three of their four losses were at home, and only the Rams loss was really "bad". With the added playoff implications of a win in Seattle, I think the Skins O may actually wake up and get something done. It'll be close, but I think they can cover.
Skins -3.5. Washington wins 24-20.

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 48.5
Arizona hasn't lost at home yet, nor have they lost outside the east coast...which is where they head next week to play the Eagles. This could be a trap game of sorts for the Giants. Arizona has a great offense, and is very good at home. But the Giants have been absolutely unstoppable lately. Taking a look at the Giants schedule, though, the Eagles likely have the best offense they have faced so far, and Philly put up 31 points. Arizona's O may be even better, though Edgerrin James is being a little bitch about playing time lately, which could distract the team a bit. I'd rather pick the crazy upset and be wrong than pick intelligently and miss out on having picked a big upset.
Cards +3. Arizona will catch the Giants napping and win outright 34-30.

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The only decent team the Chargers have beaten all year were the Patriots, and New England really played an off game that day. Both of these teams need a win, and though San Diego may need it more, Indy needs it enough to get it done, especilly against a Chargers D that can't stop much of anything right now.
Colts +2.5. Glad to take the Colts with points when they need wins. Indy 31-28.

Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -2.5
O/U: 51.5
Linebuster!
Green Bay may have the 27th-ranked run defense in the league, but they're #3 in pass defense. And they're first in the league in INTs. So heading down to the Bayou to face the league's best passing O may not scare them any. New Orleans has been slipping, and since both teams are figthing to get in the playoff picture, desperation isn't an issue. The Saints haven't had a quality win since week one against the Bucs. The loser is all but out of playoff contention, and I just can't see the Packers packing it in this soon.
Packers +2.5. They were great against the Bears; They'll shred the Saints 34-24.