RECAP - WEEK FIFTEEN

This Week: 8-5-3 (106-109-8)
Linebusters: 1-4 (36-38-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 11-5 (137-83-1)

Nice job by Vegas this week...3 games finished right on the line! The NFL continues to baffle me, and I am amazed I pulled off a positive record this week, with the Jags, Texans, and Bengals all pulling off upsets. And are the Eagles a playoff team? It's that time of year...I will examine playoff possibilities as I recap this week's games!

So Close
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago grinds one out 23-17.
Result: Bears 27-24 (ot)
I thought Chicago had this one wrapped up when the Saints failed on 4th down in the fourth quarter with the Bears up 4, but the Saints just HAD to take things to OT...oh well. I'll take the tie. The Saints are done, and the Bears need a lot of help to get to the postseason...there are 4 solid teams in front of them for the wild card. Kudos to the Bears, though, as few expected them to be as good as they turned out to be.

Now they win...
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Packers -1.5
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers -1.5. Green Bay wins 28-13.
Result: Jaguars 20-16
They've been awful all year. But I guess the Packers have been pretty darn bad the last few weeks, too. Both of these teams are done, so let's not conern ourselves with their sagas.

Pride Game
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -17
O/U: 45
My Pick: Lions +17. Can't go with that big of a spread. Colts win 27-17.
Result: Colts 31-21
Detroit is likely to end up 0-16, although their last two games are against non-playoff teams, so Detroit will certainly have more to play for than their opponents. Indy is pretty safe, as this week they play the Jaguars, and with a win, would be safely into the playoffs. How? At 11-4, even with a loss in week 17 vs. the Titans, the Colts could only be tied by Baltimore and 2 of 3 teams from the AFC East. One of the AFC East teams would be a division champ, and not a wild card team. The Colts would win the tiebreaker over both based on record within the conference.

Skinned
Washington Redskins @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Skins -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Bengals +7. Washington wins 17-13.
Result: Bengals 20-13
Cincy won. Hooray. Both teams are finished. Sorry Washington. You'd need too much help to get to the postseason now.

More OT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa Wins 23-20.
Result: Falcons 13-10 (OT)
I honestly didn't expect the Falcons to win this game. They're really showing some grit late in the season. Maybe they're not such a longshot after all?! Both of these teams play a week 17 pancake, but each has a tough game next week. If both win, things will get VERY interesting. It is basically a 4-horse race for 2 spots in the NFC now, and with the Eagles and Cowboys playing each other, it is VERY unlikely that they will both make the playoffs (Bucs and Falcons would have to lose, and tiebreakers would have to give the nod to a 10-6 Cowboy team). If the Falcons and Bucs win out and are tied at 11-5, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, the NFC South will get both wild card spots. If the Cowboys win out too, the tiebreaker gets crazy, and may come down to strength of victory. I'm not sure I've ever seen that!

Swimming into the Postseason?
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -6.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Miami wins 20-16.
Result: Dolphins 14-9
It must be nice to hold your own destiny in your hands...The Dolphins would know. They play the Jets in week 17, and with a win, could either win the division or get a wild card spot, depending on what else happens this week. New England hosts Arizona (East coast trip means a loss for the Cards...) and then travels to Buffalo. I'm guessing they'll win the division. Baltimore visits desperate Dallas this week, and will likely lose, which will all-but put an end to their playoff hopes. So that puts likely 11-5 or 12-4 Indy in the 5-spot, and the Fins, if they beat the Jets, in the 6 spot. Interesting, eh? The Jets, if they beat the Fins, would win the division based on division record, pushing the Pats into the wild card spot. If the Ravens beat the Cowboys, things could get more interesting, but we can cross that bridge when, and if, we come to it. Let it suffice to say that the Jets vs. Fins game in week 17 will be a playoff game for both teams. 10-6 likely won't get it done in the AFC this year, though there are a couple scenarios in which it could happen. Much like the Ravens beating the Cowboys, let's deal with that situation next Tuesday, if it happens, as it would require a KC win over Miami or a NYJ loss to Seattle, both of which are highly unlikely.

Who Cares?
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle gets the W...23-13.
Result: Seahawks 23-20
They tied the spread. Whoopie. Moving on...

Season's Over in WNY
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bills +8. Gotta take my boys to keep it close, but the Jets to win 24-20.
Result: Jets 31-27
Whatever. Why would you pass late in the 4th with a lead? Because they're the Bills. I'm done worrying about them. My focus is on the playoffs at this point. For a Jets playoff scenario rundown, see the Dolphins recap above...

How?
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 31-20.
Result: Texans 13-12
Everybody can have an off game, but you've got to score more than 12 points against the Texans. That's awful. Tennessee has wrapped up the division, but really needed to win at Houston, as they're now forced to beat a very good Pittsburgh team to get the #1 seed and home field advantage for the playoffs. If they lose, they'd have to root for a Pittsburgh loss in week 17, and would have to beat the Colts. Neither is a sure thing. So this week's game against Pittsburgh is basically for the top spot in the AFC.

It's a Touchdown!
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Steelers +2. Pittsburgh wins 16-13.
Result: Steelers 13-9
It was right on the line. I understand the argument about no conclusive video evidence to overturn the call, but the side judge should have called it a TD on the field, in which case there would have been no evidence to overturn it, and there would be far less controversy. That's the beauty of football, though. Steelers fans can see that 100 times, and say that it was definitely in 100 times...and Ravens fans would tell you that it definitely was NOT in 100 times. Baltimore now needs to beat the Cowboys to have a true playoff shot, and I don't think they will. With a loss Saturday, Baltimore would need to pray for the Jets, Fins, and Pats to lose easily winnable games on Sunday, and I don't see it happening.

#1? Wow.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7.5
O/U: 48
My Pick: Panthers -7.5. Carolina wins 27-17.
Result: Panthers 30-10
The "Denver rule" is 3-0. Nice. Carolina now has a shot at the 1-seed out of the NFC. Wow. I don't think they'll beat the Giants, but we will find out on Sunday night. Carolina hasn't even officially wrapped up their division yet, and the Falcons and Bucs could realistically win out, so with a loss to the Giants, Carolina would likely need to win in New Orleans in week 17 to earn the NFC South title! Tiebreakers get confusing, but I think that the Panthers could still miss the playoffs. Again, we'll see what happens this week, and I'll iron things out a little better next week.

Two Points, Two Wins
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 45.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers -5.5. San Diego rolls 27-13.
Result: Chargers 22-21
How did they win by one point again? Crazy. San Diego loses to Tampa this week, and they're done. Otherwise, they still have a shot, but the Broncos only need one win to shore up the division and eliminate the Chargers, and they host the Bills this week. If the Bills win, and the Chargers win, San Diego will play Denver in week 17 for the division. After what happened the first time the two teams met, I'd love to see week 17 decide the division. Yet another pre-playoff playoff game!

So much for the Cards at Home!
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -3. Arizona is awfully good at home. Cards 29-24.
Result: Vikings 35-14
Arizona has locked up the NFC West, and is guaranteed at least a 4-seed, but could be only .500 entering the postseason. They travel east to face the Pats, and they haven't won in the east all year. They then host Seattle, and should win, but you never know. The AFC east could have an 8-8 division champ as well. Weird. The Vikes need only one win or one Bears loss to wrap up the North, but the Vikings have 2 tough games (Falcons, Giants) and the Bears have 2 easy-ish ones (GB, @ Houston). If they win out, though, Minnesota could still have a shot at a first-round bye, assuming a Giants loss against the Panthers!

Ok, fine...
New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Raiders +7.5. Oakland will be playing hard, but New England will still win 17-13.
Result: Pats 49-26
You can never predict when the Raiders will show up...this week, they didn't. The Pats should win their last two, which would give them the division with a Jets loss, or the wild card as long as Baltimore loses once. If Baltimore and the Jets win out, the Pats could miss the playoffs, as the Ravens would hold the tiebreaker on the Pats.

Big D's Big D
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 30-18.
Result: Cowboys 20-8
The Dallas D has really stepped it up lately, and will be the reason the Cowboys make the playoffs. That is, of course, assuming they do make the playoffs. The game against the Eagles will probably be huge, but if they lose to Baltimore this week, they may still be unable to make the postseason, even with a win over the Eagles. So the Cowboys only control their own destiny if they win out, and even then it could be a crazy tiebreaker with the Falcons and Bucs. New York can win this week and close out the #1 seed, which I think they deserve. After 2 losses in a row, I doubt they'll drop another one. If they do, however, a loss in week 17 against Minnesota could mean the Giants would have to play in the first round of the playoffs.

Not Good Enough?
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 39
Linebuster!
My Pick: Eagles -14. Only because Cleveland has NO O now. Philly 27-3.
Result: Eagles 30-10
Philly handled business this week, but may still be screwed. Too little too late. That tie against lowly Cincy would be the backbreaker. The Eagles should beat the Skins this week, but even if they beat the Cowboys, they could be 10-5-1 and looking up at a combination of the Panthers, Falcons, and Bucs at 11-5 or better. It is unlikely that the Falcons and Bucs will win out, though, so the Eagles, as well as they have been playing, may be playing a pre-playoff playoff game against the Cowboys in week 17.