New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -9
O/U: 47.5
Though the Giants no longer have anything to play for and will be without Brandon Jacobs, I still believe that they have enough pride not to just lay down and die. Minnesota has been playing very poorly, but they realize that a win still gives them a shot at the first round bye they desperately need to sort out some of their issues. I'd like to say that it will be a blowout, but Minnesota is 1-5 ATS against the Giants since 1986 and I really think New York will try to give them a game.
My Pick: Giants +9. Minnesota wins 30-23.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 41.5
Why such a close spread? Because despite blowing out the Bills last week, the Falcons are 0-4 ATS the last four times they've faced the Bucs. But they're still playing for pride, and I doubt they'll roll over and die. Which is what they'd have to do for the Bucs to stay within 3 points.
My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 24-20.
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -7
O/U: 40.5
Though there is nothing on the line, I expect Mike Singletary's team to play with as much pride as anyone in the league. The Rams may come out strong, but there is also a possibility that they'll just phone it in.
My Pick: 49ers -7. San Fran finsihes strong 20-10.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -8
O/U: 46
Hahahaha. Nothing like making my job easier. There is some question that the Pats and Bengals will "throw" games this week because they are guaranteed of a home game in the wild card round (3 or 4 seed) and would rather not see the Steelers make the postseason. They'll also be resting some players, in theory. But why would you want to lose to a team that might be the opponent you'll be forced to face again next week? You don't want them to have that confidence. I think the Pats will play to win. Despite how awful the Pats have been on the road, Houston has been a very up-and-down team. They were up last week, they should be down this week. I think I picked the Texans at 8-8 preseason...I'm sticking to it.
My Pick: Pats +8. New England wins outright 23-20.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -1.5
O/U: 37.5
Jacksonville still technically has an outside shot at the playoffs (if practically all of the teams in contention lose, as the Jags hold a lot of tiebreakers). Though I don't like them, the reason they have 7 wins is that they've been able to beat the lesser teams that they were supposed to beat, such as the Browns. Cleveland has been playing pretty well, but I see them having a letdown this week.
My Pick: Jags +1.5. Jacksonville wins 21-13.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: N/A
Again, the oddsmakers are making it too easy by over-reacting to which teams have a chance to rest players. Carolina is without Steve Smith, and backup QB Matt Moore, who has been solid, is pretty banged up. Even if Brees and the big guns play limited minutes, I doubt Carolina will win in blowout fashion. Plus the Saints have lost 2 in a row...it would be awfully nice for them to get back on the winning track before the playoffs. Plus the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at Carolina.
My Pick: Saints +7. New Orleans wins 35-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -7.5
O/U: N/A
Again...what? The Bills don't have enough offense to beat anybody by more than a touchdown, let alone the Colts. I'm a Bills fan, and as such I'll pick them to win, but this spread is nuts. Indy has a lot of pride, and would like to go out on a winning note, despite being 1-6 ATS in their last 7 season enders.
My Pick: Colts +7.5. Buffalo gets the win 17-13.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
The Bears should win, but may have a bit of a letdown after last week's huge win over the Vikings. So do I think there will be a letdown, or do I think that last week proves that the Bears play well when pride is on the line? The Lions are usually good in week 17 (6-2 ATS last 8), but without Stafford I wonder how much offense they can muster.
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago wins 28-16.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 46
Pittsburgh has everything to play for and Miami was effectively eliminated last week. As long as they aren't too preoccupied with what the Jets, Ravens, and Texans are doing, I think they'll win without much of a problem. Especially if Polamalu ends up playing.
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 30-17.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
The Cowboys have been playing very well the past two weeks, especially on defense. But the Eagles coming to town may just remind them of their recent December/January woes, especially against Philly. The Cowboys are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 at home against the Eagles, and Philly has a nice winning streak going against Dallas in games played in December or later. Both want to win, as the division is on the line and a first round bye may be at stake as well. But Dallas won last time, and I believe the Eagles are the better team. Which means they ought to return the favor. If Dallas wins, there is a scenario that would see this game played again next week, but its a longshot.
My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins 34-20.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -3
O/U: 44
Green Bay hasn't really beaten many good teams this year, but Arizona is only a good team half the time. They've been iffy at home, and may have a letdown after a big win last week. If Green Bay wins, they'll head back out to the desert (or stay there...) for a rematch next week. If the Cards win, the rematch is still a possibility. Neither team wants to give the other the confidence of knowing they can beat them, so both should be playing hard. I like the Cards, but they have been awfully inconsistent. Until I know that they can put it together for more than on game, I'm staying away from them.
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay forces the rematch with a 31-21 win.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 38
Denver has a ton to play for and the Chiefs have nothing on the line. But I have seen AFC West games go completely the opposite of what is expected many times in the past. You can never count out the Chiefs or Raiders, as every division game is a rivalry matchup with plenty on the line. I expect the Broncos to be surprised by the intensity of the Chiefs, and I think they'll have to come from behind to win a game that is much closer than it should be. Even with a win, though, they'll need help to make the playoffs. I don't think they'll get it.
My Pick: Chiefs +13. Denver can't blow them out twice, right? Denver 34-27.
Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 38
A Ravens win would get them in the playoffs, no questions asked. Though they have 7 losses, none are to bad teams. The worst team they've lost to is actually the Steelers, who just beat them last week and are far better than their 8-7 record reflects. Oakland tends to respond well to losses, but the Ravens have been too good against lousy teams for me to think this will be much of a matchup. The Ravens are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against Oakland, and the Raiders are 1-5 their last 6 week 17's.
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 31-10.
Washington Redskins @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 39.5
The Skins have been terrible the last 2 weeks, and San Diego is one of the best teams in the league right now. They may be resting players, but I still think they can beat the Skins. The starters should play for a little while to stay in rhythm, especially with 2 weeks off before their next game. If Rivers and the first-team offense play for a full half, they should put the game out of reach.
My Pick: Chargers -3.5 San Diego wins 20-13.
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Titans -4.5
O/U: 44
Tennessee has been playing with great pride the entire second half of the season, and despite being out of the playoff hunt, I expect them to play hard. A few weeks ago I expected Seattle to put on a show for the home fans, and they were routed. So I'm not worried about home-field advantage. Seattle is very blow-out-able, and I think Tennessee will beat them soundly.
My Pick: Titans -4.5. Tennessee wins 34-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -10
O/U: 35
The Bengals have played well in big games all year, but are very beatable when they're feeling apathetic. For them, this isn't a big game. Ochocinco's not going to do much now that he's called out Revis, who I'd bet will guard him the whole game. But was Chad going to play much anyway? We'll see how much the starters rest, but the Cincy D is solid enough not to allow the Jets to run away with it like they did against Indy. I think the Jets will win, but Cincy better be careful. This is one of 3 games this week that could end up happening again on wild card weekend, and Cincy doesn't want to throw the game and allow the Jets to have all the confidence and momentum for a possible rematch next week.
My Pick: Bengals +10. The Jets still win 17-10.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
NFL Week Sixteen Recap and Playoff Projections
Overall SU: 159-81 (11-5 wk 16)
Week 16 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 115-121-4
Too Good to be True
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Result: Chargers 42-17
Tennessee had a great run, but ultimately couldn't recover from its terrible start. The Chargers seem to be the team to beat right now in the AFC, and since they won't have to see the Colts until championship weekend, I expect them to make it at least that far. Unless the rest kills their chemistry.
Good win...
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Result: Falcons 31-3
The Bills would have been in this game a bit more had the crazy play at the end of the first half held up for a TD. Instead Atlanta ran train on them in the second. Oh well. Neither team is going to the playoffs.
As Expected
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Result: Packers 48-10
The Seahawks are extraordinarily blow-out-able this year. Green Bay clinched a playoff spot with the win. If they lose and Dallas beats Philly, they'll be the 6-seed. Otherwise, they're the 5. Strangely enough (this is not the only such matchup this week, hence it is strange) the Packers will likely visit Arizona two weeks in a row, as Green Bay is likely the 5 seed and Arizona likely the 4. Unless the Vikings lose to the Giants and are passed by Arizona (with a win) and Philly (with a win), in which case Green Bay (as a 5) would visit Minny (as a 4).
Finally Eliminated!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Result: Patriots 35-7
I am aware that they're not "technically" done, but its good enough for me. I never thought the Jags deserved a playoff spot. If you disagree, look at their schedule. They have 8 wins...all over crappy teams (HOU counts as crappy unless they make the playoffs). New England has locked up the division, but there's no telling whether or not they'll be the 3 or 4 seed. If they win @HOU (NE bad on road, HOU playing for their playoff life) and Cincy loses (@NYJ, also playing for playoff life), NE will be the 3. If Cincy wins and NE loses, they're the 4. If they're tied, it comes down to strength of victory, which is a pain in the butt to figure out. But it looks like New England would have the edge there depending on week 17 results. Who they'd play is tough to tell, too. The 5 and 6 are still up for grabs. BAL, NYJ, DEN, and PIT are the most likely opponents, but it is possible that this could turn into a rematch of week 17 if HOU wins, gets a ton of help to get the 6-seed, and sees the Jets beat the Bengals, they'd probably go to New England for the wild card round. But it's far less likely than a Packers-Cards rematch.
Deservedly Done
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Result: Panthers 41-9
How can you play that poorly with everything on the line? Just awful. They deserve to be done.
Always a great series
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Result: Steelers 23-20
These teams always play each other so tough...no surprise that they'd split two games and have identical combined scores (each won by 3). Baltimore controls its destiny, and will be in with a win over Oakland. They could play the Pats or Bengals, depending on what happens in week 17. I'd imagine they'd rather play the Pats, having already lost twice to Cincy. Pittsburgh can still get in, too, but needs to win and see 2 of the following occur: the Jets fall to the Bengals, the Texans fall to the Pats, the Ravens lose to the Raiders.
Dumbasses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Result: Bucs 20-17 (ot)
They had the spread beaten at halftime and blew it. Awful. They've backed into the 1-seed, and I worry about their playoff chances. They just don't look as sharp as they did earlier in the year.
Can't Predict Heart
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Result: Texans 27-20
The Texans just wanted it more. They came out hot, and Miami had no answer. The Fins are pretty much done. Houston can get in with a win and a combo of 2 of the following: Jets lose, Broncos Lose, Ravens Lose. They can be the 5 or 6 seed, depending on what happens in week 17, and would play either the Bengals or Pats.
No Consequence
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Result: Browns 23-9
This game didn't really matter at all, except where pride is concerned. And when the Raiders get beat, they tend to come back strong the next week. So the Ravens better be careful.
Too Close...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
Result: Bengals 17-10
Cincy needed to make more of a statement. I have no idea what to expect from them in the playoffs. They can be the 3 or 4 seed depending on what happens this week, and could play any of the AFC's wild-card-eligible teams.
I hate when I jump off the bandwagon too quick
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-10
So Arizona finally decided to play. Good to know for future reference. As mentioned in the Packers recap, they'll more likely than not host Green Bay two weeks in a row. Otherwise, they'll see the loser of the Dallas/Philly game come to town.
Doesn't Matter
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
Result: San Fran 20-6
At halftime this looked like a good pick. Then the 49ers started scoring.
First loss (and last?)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Result: Jets 29-15
They pulled Peyton too soon...but if they win the Super Bowl, it was the right call. Otherwise it will be second guessed for a long time. Indy is the 1-seed. New York gets in with a win, and would be the 5 seed. They could play either the Pats or Bengals, pending this week's results.
Huge Win...Bigger Loss
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Result: Eagles 30-27
Philly can still be the 2, 5, or 6-seed. If they win, they'll get the bye and the division title. If they lose and Green Bay Wins, Dallas takes the division and Philly falls to the 6. If they lose and Green Bay loses, they're the 5. Denver, on the other hand, would have controlled their playoff future with a win over Philly and KC coming to Mile High in week 17. Instead, they'll need to win and get help. A combo of 2 of the following must lose: PIT, NYJ, and BAL. If HOU and PIT win, Hou beats out PIT, and then DEN beats out HOU, so they could still pull it off with a Steelers win, but it would also require a Texans win. My guess is they're in trouble.
As I thought...
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Result: Cowboys 17-0
Good to see Washington put up a fight offensively. Dallas can still be the 2-seed with a win and losses by MIN and ARI. They'd be the 3 if they win and either Minny or Arizona wins, but not both. They'd be the 4 with a win and MIN/ARI wins. They'll be the 6 seed if they lose.
Awful Ending
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
Result: Bears 36-30 (ot)
Great game. But Minnesota's end-of-season skid has been awful. I really thought they'd contend for a Super Bowl spot, but they'll really need to get themselves back on track. A win and a Philly loss means they'll be the 2 seed. A win and a Philly win, or a PHI win and losses by both MIN and ARI would make them the 3 seed. They'll be the 4 if they lose and ARI wins, in which case they may play the Packers. Otherwise they'll either have a Bye or play Dallas.
My Prediction:
AFC: Jets lose, Ravens Win, Steelers win, Hou loses
1-Colts
2-Chargers
3-Pats
4-Bengals
5-Ravens
6-Steelers
NFC: PHI wins, ARI loses, MIN wins.
1-Saints
2-Eagles
3-Vikings
4-Cards
5-Packers
6-Cowboys
Week 16 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 115-121-4
Too Good to be True
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Result: Chargers 42-17
Tennessee had a great run, but ultimately couldn't recover from its terrible start. The Chargers seem to be the team to beat right now in the AFC, and since they won't have to see the Colts until championship weekend, I expect them to make it at least that far. Unless the rest kills their chemistry.
Good win...
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Result: Falcons 31-3
The Bills would have been in this game a bit more had the crazy play at the end of the first half held up for a TD. Instead Atlanta ran train on them in the second. Oh well. Neither team is going to the playoffs.
As Expected
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Result: Packers 48-10
The Seahawks are extraordinarily blow-out-able this year. Green Bay clinched a playoff spot with the win. If they lose and Dallas beats Philly, they'll be the 6-seed. Otherwise, they're the 5. Strangely enough (this is not the only such matchup this week, hence it is strange) the Packers will likely visit Arizona two weeks in a row, as Green Bay is likely the 5 seed and Arizona likely the 4. Unless the Vikings lose to the Giants and are passed by Arizona (with a win) and Philly (with a win), in which case Green Bay (as a 5) would visit Minny (as a 4).
Finally Eliminated!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Result: Patriots 35-7
I am aware that they're not "technically" done, but its good enough for me. I never thought the Jags deserved a playoff spot. If you disagree, look at their schedule. They have 8 wins...all over crappy teams (HOU counts as crappy unless they make the playoffs). New England has locked up the division, but there's no telling whether or not they'll be the 3 or 4 seed. If they win @HOU (NE bad on road, HOU playing for their playoff life) and Cincy loses (@NYJ, also playing for playoff life), NE will be the 3. If Cincy wins and NE loses, they're the 4. If they're tied, it comes down to strength of victory, which is a pain in the butt to figure out. But it looks like New England would have the edge there depending on week 17 results. Who they'd play is tough to tell, too. The 5 and 6 are still up for grabs. BAL, NYJ, DEN, and PIT are the most likely opponents, but it is possible that this could turn into a rematch of week 17 if HOU wins, gets a ton of help to get the 6-seed, and sees the Jets beat the Bengals, they'd probably go to New England for the wild card round. But it's far less likely than a Packers-Cards rematch.
Deservedly Done
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Result: Panthers 41-9
How can you play that poorly with everything on the line? Just awful. They deserve to be done.
Always a great series
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Result: Steelers 23-20
These teams always play each other so tough...no surprise that they'd split two games and have identical combined scores (each won by 3). Baltimore controls its destiny, and will be in with a win over Oakland. They could play the Pats or Bengals, depending on what happens in week 17. I'd imagine they'd rather play the Pats, having already lost twice to Cincy. Pittsburgh can still get in, too, but needs to win and see 2 of the following occur: the Jets fall to the Bengals, the Texans fall to the Pats, the Ravens lose to the Raiders.
Dumbasses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Result: Bucs 20-17 (ot)
They had the spread beaten at halftime and blew it. Awful. They've backed into the 1-seed, and I worry about their playoff chances. They just don't look as sharp as they did earlier in the year.
Can't Predict Heart
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Result: Texans 27-20
The Texans just wanted it more. They came out hot, and Miami had no answer. The Fins are pretty much done. Houston can get in with a win and a combo of 2 of the following: Jets lose, Broncos Lose, Ravens Lose. They can be the 5 or 6 seed, depending on what happens in week 17, and would play either the Bengals or Pats.
No Consequence
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Result: Browns 23-9
This game didn't really matter at all, except where pride is concerned. And when the Raiders get beat, they tend to come back strong the next week. So the Ravens better be careful.
Too Close...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
Result: Bengals 17-10
Cincy needed to make more of a statement. I have no idea what to expect from them in the playoffs. They can be the 3 or 4 seed depending on what happens this week, and could play any of the AFC's wild-card-eligible teams.
I hate when I jump off the bandwagon too quick
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-10
So Arizona finally decided to play. Good to know for future reference. As mentioned in the Packers recap, they'll more likely than not host Green Bay two weeks in a row. Otherwise, they'll see the loser of the Dallas/Philly game come to town.
Doesn't Matter
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
Result: San Fran 20-6
At halftime this looked like a good pick. Then the 49ers started scoring.
First loss (and last?)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Result: Jets 29-15
They pulled Peyton too soon...but if they win the Super Bowl, it was the right call. Otherwise it will be second guessed for a long time. Indy is the 1-seed. New York gets in with a win, and would be the 5 seed. They could play either the Pats or Bengals, pending this week's results.
Huge Win...Bigger Loss
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Result: Eagles 30-27
Philly can still be the 2, 5, or 6-seed. If they win, they'll get the bye and the division title. If they lose and Green Bay Wins, Dallas takes the division and Philly falls to the 6. If they lose and Green Bay loses, they're the 5. Denver, on the other hand, would have controlled their playoff future with a win over Philly and KC coming to Mile High in week 17. Instead, they'll need to win and get help. A combo of 2 of the following must lose: PIT, NYJ, and BAL. If HOU and PIT win, Hou beats out PIT, and then DEN beats out HOU, so they could still pull it off with a Steelers win, but it would also require a Texans win. My guess is they're in trouble.
As I thought...
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Result: Cowboys 17-0
Good to see Washington put up a fight offensively. Dallas can still be the 2-seed with a win and losses by MIN and ARI. They'd be the 3 if they win and either Minny or Arizona wins, but not both. They'd be the 4 with a win and MIN/ARI wins. They'll be the 6 seed if they lose.
Awful Ending
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
Result: Bears 36-30 (ot)
Great game. But Minnesota's end-of-season skid has been awful. I really thought they'd contend for a Super Bowl spot, but they'll really need to get themselves back on track. A win and a Philly loss means they'll be the 2 seed. A win and a Philly win, or a PHI win and losses by both MIN and ARI would make them the 3 seed. They'll be the 4 if they lose and ARI wins, in which case they may play the Packers. Otherwise they'll either have a Bye or play Dallas.
My Prediction:
AFC: Jets lose, Ravens Win, Steelers win, Hou loses
1-Colts
2-Chargers
3-Pats
4-Bengals
5-Ravens
6-Steelers
NFC: PHI wins, ARI loses, MIN wins.
1-Saints
2-Eagles
3-Vikings
4-Cards
5-Packers
6-Cowboys
Thursday, December 24, 2009
NFL Week Sixteen Preview
Friday, December 25th:
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
I guess the oddsmakers factor in heart! San Diego has been unstoppable, and still has something to play for as the #2 seed isn't quite sewn up yet. I was going to pick the Titans, but the fact that San Diego is the underdog in this game is enough to change my mind. I know Tennessee has had a magical run, but it has to end sometime. It would be awfully cruel for them to win out and miss the playoffs on tiebreakers...which is why I think they'll lose.
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Sunday, December 27th:
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
Buffalo is not the type of team that frequently gets blown out. They did get beat soundly by New Orleans and Miami earlier in the year, but the lopsided losses to Tennessee and Houston were close games most of the way and were broken open late. With Ryan and Turner in there, Atlanta should win. And despite being out of the playoff race, they very well may want to put on a show for the home fans. Edwards is done, so the Bills O has to rely on Fitzpatrick. Which means 10 points. So do I think the Falcons can put up 20? I'd say no due to Ryan's shaky play since his return (he was making some bad throws last week), but with Jairus Bird (the ballhawk!) and McGee out of the Bills lineup, I don't see them picking off many passes. And the run D has been bad all year (worst in the NFL).
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
Seattle has given up, and the Packers need to keep winning to get themselves into the postseason. This has all the makings of a blowout.
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
Both teams has a ton to play for, and I expect this to be a somewhat competitive game. I'm just worried that the Pats may finally find their rhythm at home and crush the Jags. Jacksonville needs to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but can they pull it off in New England?
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
New York has to win out, and I wouldn't put that concept past a team with the capability the Giants have. Their defense was outstanding for most of the game against Washington, and I'd expect more of the same this week. DelHomme is done, and Moore has played in enough games now that defenses should be able to figure him out a little better. Like Josh Freeman in Tampa, I expect his usefulness to decrease as opposing defenses get to see more film on him. Also of note, most other teams with no playoff hopes have had a bad, apathetic week already...it's Carolina's turn.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
I think Polamalu makes all the difference in this one. It will be a smashmouth style game, and the Steelers D needs all of its leaders on the field to combat the intensity that will be coming from the other sideline. He is unlikely to play as of right now, but I'm going to pick the Steelers anyway. The Ravens' O has been inconsistent, and could have a bad week against Pittsburgh. Plus a Steelers win keeps them in the playoff hunt, and a Baltimore loss opens things up a bit more in the AFC and makes week 17 that much more interesting.
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
Tampa's bad, New Orleans is good. And after all the craziness that New Orleans has been through with the pursuit of perfection, it would be crazy to think that they would be any less than the 1-seed in the NFC. If they win this game, they'll lock it up, so I expect them to play hard enough to get the home blowout.
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
This is a do-or-die game for both teams. The loser is done, the winner still has a shot. So expect a ton of intensity on both sides. For some reason, the Texans have really fallen off lately, and were barely able to beat the Rams this past week despite still having an outside shot at a playoff berth. Each team has beaten only one playoff-bound team all year, but I think Miami's defense and consistent play gives them an edge over the slumping Texans.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
Quinn is out, but does that really matter when the opposing QB is Charlie Frye? Oakland has beaten some good teams thus far, and is clearly the best of the worst. But they haven't pulled off back-to-back solid outings all year. It almost seems like they need to be embarassed for them to get angry enough to play a good game the following week. After a win over Denver, I expect a letdown. It also seems as though most of the NFL's crappy teams find a way to get 4 wins by the end of the year, and this is a golden opportunity for the Browns to get #4.
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
The Bengals have had some letdowns against lesser opposition this year, but as they are still on an emotional roller coaster following the funeral of Chris Henry, I don't think there will be a letdown this week. It's their first home game since Henry's death, and there will be a buzz in the air. The Benglas should put on a show. Not to mention they're still fighting for a playoff spot, as the Ravens can still catch them.
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
The Cardinals are already in the playoffs, but have been playing poorly the last few weeks. St. Louis really seemed to have some solid intensity last week, but will they phone it in once they get to Arizona? The Cards couldn't beat the spread in St. Louis, and unless the Rams don't show up, I think they'll have trouble beating it again.
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
I certainly don't think the 49ers will give up, as Singletary will kill them all if they do, but 12 points is an awful lot to cover when there's nothing on the line. Detroit is starting Stanton, though, so offense might be tough to come by. I just can't give a team with nothing to play for 12 points.
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
So how long will Manning play? That's the real question here. I say he plays a half, just to stay in rhythm will all of his receivers. One hald of Manning is about 24 points on the scoreboard. The Jets won't score that many all game, especially with the Indy defense pumped up to go after that 16-0 record.
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
I don't think the Eagles' long ball offense will have much success against the solid Broncos secondary. Both teams need wins...Denver to make the playoffs, Philly to push toward a possible bye week. Both will be playing hard, and I think Philly is the better team. Not that it necessarily means anything in today's parity-laden NFL.
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
All the analysts are convinced that after Washington's embarassing effort last week they'll come back ready to play this week. I'm not so sure. After all, they are a bad team with nothing to play for going up against a mediocre team with everything to play for. If the Cowboys lose, they are more than likely going to miss the playoffs. So I don't expect them to take this game lightly. They couldn't beat the spread against the Skins at home, but I think they'll have better luck in Washington.
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Monday, December 28th:
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
Minnesota is still fighting for a bye week in the NFC playoffs, and really needs one, as their quarterback is quite old and could use the rest. Favre is out to prove that his tiff with Childress meant nothing, and the Vikings are out to show the world that they deserve that #2 seed. Chicago will struggle against a very good Viking D, and I'll bet AP has a good week after all the talk that the Vikings' slump is mostly due to an ineffective run game.
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
I guess the oddsmakers factor in heart! San Diego has been unstoppable, and still has something to play for as the #2 seed isn't quite sewn up yet. I was going to pick the Titans, but the fact that San Diego is the underdog in this game is enough to change my mind. I know Tennessee has had a magical run, but it has to end sometime. It would be awfully cruel for them to win out and miss the playoffs on tiebreakers...which is why I think they'll lose.
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Sunday, December 27th:
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
Buffalo is not the type of team that frequently gets blown out. They did get beat soundly by New Orleans and Miami earlier in the year, but the lopsided losses to Tennessee and Houston were close games most of the way and were broken open late. With Ryan and Turner in there, Atlanta should win. And despite being out of the playoff race, they very well may want to put on a show for the home fans. Edwards is done, so the Bills O has to rely on Fitzpatrick. Which means 10 points. So do I think the Falcons can put up 20? I'd say no due to Ryan's shaky play since his return (he was making some bad throws last week), but with Jairus Bird (the ballhawk!) and McGee out of the Bills lineup, I don't see them picking off many passes. And the run D has been bad all year (worst in the NFL).
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
Seattle has given up, and the Packers need to keep winning to get themselves into the postseason. This has all the makings of a blowout.
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
Both teams has a ton to play for, and I expect this to be a somewhat competitive game. I'm just worried that the Pats may finally find their rhythm at home and crush the Jags. Jacksonville needs to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but can they pull it off in New England?
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
New York has to win out, and I wouldn't put that concept past a team with the capability the Giants have. Their defense was outstanding for most of the game against Washington, and I'd expect more of the same this week. DelHomme is done, and Moore has played in enough games now that defenses should be able to figure him out a little better. Like Josh Freeman in Tampa, I expect his usefulness to decrease as opposing defenses get to see more film on him. Also of note, most other teams with no playoff hopes have had a bad, apathetic week already...it's Carolina's turn.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
I think Polamalu makes all the difference in this one. It will be a smashmouth style game, and the Steelers D needs all of its leaders on the field to combat the intensity that will be coming from the other sideline. He is unlikely to play as of right now, but I'm going to pick the Steelers anyway. The Ravens' O has been inconsistent, and could have a bad week against Pittsburgh. Plus a Steelers win keeps them in the playoff hunt, and a Baltimore loss opens things up a bit more in the AFC and makes week 17 that much more interesting.
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
Tampa's bad, New Orleans is good. And after all the craziness that New Orleans has been through with the pursuit of perfection, it would be crazy to think that they would be any less than the 1-seed in the NFC. If they win this game, they'll lock it up, so I expect them to play hard enough to get the home blowout.
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
This is a do-or-die game for both teams. The loser is done, the winner still has a shot. So expect a ton of intensity on both sides. For some reason, the Texans have really fallen off lately, and were barely able to beat the Rams this past week despite still having an outside shot at a playoff berth. Each team has beaten only one playoff-bound team all year, but I think Miami's defense and consistent play gives them an edge over the slumping Texans.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
Quinn is out, but does that really matter when the opposing QB is Charlie Frye? Oakland has beaten some good teams thus far, and is clearly the best of the worst. But they haven't pulled off back-to-back solid outings all year. It almost seems like they need to be embarassed for them to get angry enough to play a good game the following week. After a win over Denver, I expect a letdown. It also seems as though most of the NFL's crappy teams find a way to get 4 wins by the end of the year, and this is a golden opportunity for the Browns to get #4.
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
The Bengals have had some letdowns against lesser opposition this year, but as they are still on an emotional roller coaster following the funeral of Chris Henry, I don't think there will be a letdown this week. It's their first home game since Henry's death, and there will be a buzz in the air. The Benglas should put on a show. Not to mention they're still fighting for a playoff spot, as the Ravens can still catch them.
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
The Cardinals are already in the playoffs, but have been playing poorly the last few weeks. St. Louis really seemed to have some solid intensity last week, but will they phone it in once they get to Arizona? The Cards couldn't beat the spread in St. Louis, and unless the Rams don't show up, I think they'll have trouble beating it again.
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
I certainly don't think the 49ers will give up, as Singletary will kill them all if they do, but 12 points is an awful lot to cover when there's nothing on the line. Detroit is starting Stanton, though, so offense might be tough to come by. I just can't give a team with nothing to play for 12 points.
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
So how long will Manning play? That's the real question here. I say he plays a half, just to stay in rhythm will all of his receivers. One hald of Manning is about 24 points on the scoreboard. The Jets won't score that many all game, especially with the Indy defense pumped up to go after that 16-0 record.
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
I don't think the Eagles' long ball offense will have much success against the solid Broncos secondary. Both teams need wins...Denver to make the playoffs, Philly to push toward a possible bye week. Both will be playing hard, and I think Philly is the better team. Not that it necessarily means anything in today's parity-laden NFL.
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
All the analysts are convinced that after Washington's embarassing effort last week they'll come back ready to play this week. I'm not so sure. After all, they are a bad team with nothing to play for going up against a mediocre team with everything to play for. If the Cowboys lose, they are more than likely going to miss the playoffs. So I don't expect them to take this game lightly. They couldn't beat the spread against the Skins at home, but I think they'll have better luck in Washington.
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Monday, December 28th:
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
Minnesota is still fighting for a bye week in the NFC playoffs, and really needs one, as their quarterback is quite old and could use the rest. Favre is out to prove that his tiff with Childress meant nothing, and the Vikings are out to show the world that they deserve that #2 seed. Chicago will struggle against a very good Viking D, and I'll bet AP has a good week after all the talk that the Vikings' slump is mostly due to an ineffective run game.
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
NFL Week Fifteen Recap (w/ Playoff Contingencies)
Overall SU: 148-76 (10-6 wk 15)
Week 15 ATS: 6-8-2
Overall ATS: 107-113-4
Still Perfect
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 35-31
The Jaguars put up a great fight, but the Colts are an elite team. Manning played well again and the Colts D did just enough. The Colts playoff scenario is simple...they're #1. They've clinched homefield. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Indy. The Jaguars are one of 6 teams at 7-7, and you have to assume that at least one of those teams will win its final 2 games. And it is very unlikely that both teams at 8-6 will lose their last 2 to fall to 8-8. In other words, the Jags will have to win out to have a playoff shot. It starts in New England, and I don't think they will win. But if a miracle occurs and they pull it off, they get the Browns in week 17, and could force some tiebreakers into effect. The Jags hold tiebreakers over the Jets, Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore, Denver, and Tennessee. But of course the Ravens and Broncos would have to lose once to be dropped back down into a tie with the Jags. If it came down to the Jags and Fins, Miami would have the tiebreaker due to last week's head-to-head win. We'll know more after this week, as the Jags go to NE, the Ravens go to PIT, and the Broncos go to PHI. The Jags would drop out of the running with a loss, but the door for all of the teams at 7-7 would swing wide open if the Broncos and/or Ravens lose. And with both having easy games in week 17, it could be the last chance for that door to open.
You Never Know in the NFL...
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Result: Cowboys 24-17
It has been a long time since the Saints were held under 20 points. And it is amazing that it was the Cowboys who pulled it off. I didn't think Ware would play as of Thursday, and he turned out to be a huge factor. Dallas' problem isn't getting one win in December, though. It is sustaining solid play throughout the month. They have two more games to go...even one more loss would mean another sub-.500 December. The Saints are in, and with one more win they'll wrap up home field advantage. Tampa's on the horizon, so it should happen. If they lose out and the Vikings win out, Minny would get the spot. Dallas controls its own destiny, but again, they're awful in December. The Redskins were embarassed this week, and should come out with something to prove next week. The Cowboys then finish with Philly. A win would give them not only a playoff birth, but the NFC East crown. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Packers and Giants hold tiebreakers over them. So in the event that Dallas loses once and the Giants win out, it is the Cowboys who will be watching the playoffs on TV.
Bye, Bye Lovie
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Result: Ravens 31-7
The Ravens made a statement, just as I thought they would. A solid win for them as they move toward the playoffs. If they can win out, they're in. If Cincy loses out, they could still win the AFC North, though it is unlikely. Baltimore is probably looking at the 5-seed, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos, with whom they are currently tied. They also hold tiebreakers over everyone but the Jags (who play @ the Pats this week...) so even with a loss, their playoff future looks pretty secure.
Whatever...
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
Result: Browns 41-34
KC put up a good fight, and the Browns were somehow involved in another offensive battle against a crappy team. Neither has any postseason hopes, but both will have a chance to play spoiler. KC gets the Broncos in week 17, and Denver could be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Chiefs if they lose to Philly this week. Cleveland gets a shot at the Jags in week 17, and if they beat the Pats this week, a loss to the Browns would kill their playoff dreams.
Philly Stakes San Fran
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Result: Eagles 27-13
San Fran has officially been eliminated from contention in the NFC, but if you look back at their schedule, they have had a pretty good year. They almost beat the Vikings, they swept the NFC West's playoff team the Cardinals, and they've been very competitive against solid teams. There is plenty to look forward to for next year in San Fran. Philly is in for the playoffs, but there is still plenty to shoot for. If the Vikings falter, Philly could still get a bye. They're only one back, and they hold the tiebreaker. They could also lose the NFC East title with a loss @ Dallas and be forced into a wild card slot. Plenty of movement is possible for Philly...possible seeds range from #2 to #6!
Apathy Despite Playoff Hopes?
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Result: Texans 16-13
Why wouldn't Houston come out with passion when they still have a shot at the playoffs? Oh well. The Rams are out, but played with much more heart than they did last week, and almost got the upset. To win out, the Texans have to beat Miami, which would eliminate one competitor. They would be beaten on tiebreakers by the Ravens, Jets and Jags, and would need them to lose. The only team they can really get past is Tennessee. There is a shot, but they need a ton of help. Don't expect them to make the postseason.
Still Alive
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Result: Titans 27-24 (ot)
Both of these teams remain alive for playoff berths, though it doesn't look good for the Titans. Tennessee only holds a tiebreaker over Miami, and would need the Ravens and Broncos to lose out to have a shot. Miami holds tiebreakers over the Jets and and Jags, and would have to beat the Steelers to have a shot at the playoffs anyway. So they'll only need to worry about the Ravens and Broncos. If Denver loses to KC, Miami will get in over them. If the Broncos lose to Philly and beat KC, or if the Ravens lose only once, more tiebreakers will come into play, and I'd rather wait until we get a clearer picture of what is happening in the AFC before I go into figuring out strength of victory and other weird tiebreaker stats.
Defensive Battle
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Result: Falcons 10-7
This game turned out just like I thought it would, though I didn't realize it would take the Falcons quite so long to finally find the endzone. Atlanta holds no tiebreakers and is out of the playoffs, which is tough after such a great start. Injuries really killed their season. The Jets still have a shot, but a very tough road ahead, as they'll have to beat the Colts and Bengals to earn a playoff spot. Even then they'll need help. They hold tiebreakers over PIT, HOU, BAL and TEN, but would lose out to DEN, MIA or JAX in the event of a tie.
Talk about Limping into the Playoffs...
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -12. Arizona wins 41-17.
Result: Cards 31-24
Arizona has been playing awful lately. Rather than gaining confidence from last year's run and playing great football, the Cards seem to be overconfident, lacking in intensity, and content with backing into the playoffs. Yeah, they won, but it wasn't pretty. Arizona is very likely the #4 seed, though they could go as high as #2 if Philly and Minnesota lose their remaining games.
Still Not Dominating...
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Result: Pats 17-10
New England finally got that elusive first road win, yet Brady didn't look himself and the Pats have really not been playing football at the level we have come to expect from them. When they began blowing teams out mid-season, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the AFC Byes would go to Indy and New England. Not anymore. San Diego has come on strong, and will likely have the first week of the playoffs off. If San Diego loses its last two and NE wins out, the Pats will get the bye based on common opponents, with that stat coming down to San Diego's loss to Tennessee. They're tied in common opponents right now (2-2 each), but the Pats beat the Titans and the Chargers would have to lose to Tennessee to open the door for New England to get the bye. Again, not likely. Even if San Diego loses to the Titans, they finish up with Washington.
Hahahahaha
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Result: Raiders 20-19
I am very mad that I picked Denver. I truly thought I picked Oakland until I looked at the blog this morning. Check out my rationale...it was all positive for Oakland, and then I changed the pick at the last minute because Frye was the starting QB. I'm a dumbass. Anyway, the Broncos have faltered at the wrong time, and could miss the playoffs. Their Super Bowl is this week in Philly, because if they lose, they could be overtaken by one or more of the 7-7 teams by season's end. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have the tiebreaker over them, but a tie with Houston or Tennessee would favor Denver. They lost to Baltimore heads up, so the Ravens would need to lose twice for Denver to beat them out. If they're tied up with Miami or the Jets, it would come down to strength of victory. Denver has some solid wins, but I'm not going to officially figure that stat out until next week when there will be a clearer picture of the AFC Playoff race.
Heart of a Champion
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Result: Chargers 27-24
This game's title applies to both teams. To the Bengals for hanging with the Chargers the whole game, and to the Chargers for rising to the occasion and playing with great intensity to combat the Bengals' emotion. By far the best, most heartfelt Ochocinco touchdown celebration ever. A simple show of overwhelming emotion that fans of both teams can appreciate. These teams will both be in the playoffs, and may meet again soon with much more on the line. San Diego would have to lose out to relinquish the 2-seed, and Cincy would have to lose out to relinquish the division lead and fall back into a 9-7 tiebreaker scenario with half of the AFC. If they lose this week, I will figure out those tiebreakers. But they play Kansas City, and should wrap up the division.
Give Up Time?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Result: Buccaneers 24-7
Seattle should be embarassed. Tampa wanted a second win and Seattle looked like their minds were already on the offseason. They'll get yelled at this week and may come out with a little more intensity, but probably still won't win if their hearts aren't truly in it anymore.
Called It
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Result: Steelers 37-36
Green Bay is very beatable. Pittsburgh isn't ready to give up their slim playoff hopes just yet, but even a win streak to end the year is likely too little, too late. A Denver stumble would open the door, but the Steelers would still have to beat out any other 9-7 team that rises to the occasion. They have the tiebreaker on TEN, and would eliminate MIA by beating them in week 17. But the Jets would get in over PIT if they win out, as would JAX. HOU comes down to common opponents, which Houston wins thanks to PIT's loss to Oakland. So Pittsburgh fans need the Steelers to win out and will need NYJ, JAX, DEN and HOU to lose. Sounds crazy, but all 4 play a tough team or two, and I'd say the toughest part of this scenario will be Pittsburgh winning out.
Stumbling Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Result: Panthers 26-7
How can Peterson not be working? He's the best tool in the chest, and for some reason he's been on the fritz. It's like the Vikings are trying to give games away at this point. During the Panthers game, AP was thrown to on a quick screen and dropped it. If you've ever seen Brett Favre play, you know he was destined to give Peterson another shot. It came immediately. Another screen. Another drop. JUST AWFUL. And Bryant Mckinnie was useless against Peppers all game long. I think his benching will be a wake up call to him, but who knows? Minnesota can't dawdle, as another loss could lose them a bye week. And when your QB is 86 years old, a bye week is kinda important. Philly would have to win out and Minnesota would have to lose one game. The Vikings do, however, still have a shot at homefield advantage by winning out, but New Orleans is highly unlikely to lose to BOTH the Bucs and Panthers.
Staying Alive
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Result: Giants 45-12
Yes, the Redskins should be embarassed. But what I took away from this game is that the Giants defense is finally ready to step up. Or at least they were for one game. They'll need to keep up that intensity if this team is to make the playoffs, as they'll likely need to win out. If Dallas loses once and the G-men win out, New York is in. If Dallas loses twice (unlikely...they play the Skins...), the Giants can lose to Minnesota in week 17 and still get in. If the Cowboys win out, the Giants can still overtake the Packers with 2 wins and a Packers loss, as the Giants hold the common opponents tiebreaker.
My Playoff Predictions as of week 15:
AFC: 1-Colts, 2-Chargers, 3-Bengals, 4-Pats, 5-Ravens, 6-Steelers
NFC: 1-Saints, 2-Eagles, 3-Vikings, 4-Cardinals, 5-Packers, 6-Giants
Week 15 ATS: 6-8-2
Overall ATS: 107-113-4
Still Perfect
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 35-31
The Jaguars put up a great fight, but the Colts are an elite team. Manning played well again and the Colts D did just enough. The Colts playoff scenario is simple...they're #1. They've clinched homefield. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Indy. The Jaguars are one of 6 teams at 7-7, and you have to assume that at least one of those teams will win its final 2 games. And it is very unlikely that both teams at 8-6 will lose their last 2 to fall to 8-8. In other words, the Jags will have to win out to have a playoff shot. It starts in New England, and I don't think they will win. But if a miracle occurs and they pull it off, they get the Browns in week 17, and could force some tiebreakers into effect. The Jags hold tiebreakers over the Jets, Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore, Denver, and Tennessee. But of course the Ravens and Broncos would have to lose once to be dropped back down into a tie with the Jags. If it came down to the Jags and Fins, Miami would have the tiebreaker due to last week's head-to-head win. We'll know more after this week, as the Jags go to NE, the Ravens go to PIT, and the Broncos go to PHI. The Jags would drop out of the running with a loss, but the door for all of the teams at 7-7 would swing wide open if the Broncos and/or Ravens lose. And with both having easy games in week 17, it could be the last chance for that door to open.
You Never Know in the NFL...
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Result: Cowboys 24-17
It has been a long time since the Saints were held under 20 points. And it is amazing that it was the Cowboys who pulled it off. I didn't think Ware would play as of Thursday, and he turned out to be a huge factor. Dallas' problem isn't getting one win in December, though. It is sustaining solid play throughout the month. They have two more games to go...even one more loss would mean another sub-.500 December. The Saints are in, and with one more win they'll wrap up home field advantage. Tampa's on the horizon, so it should happen. If they lose out and the Vikings win out, Minny would get the spot. Dallas controls its own destiny, but again, they're awful in December. The Redskins were embarassed this week, and should come out with something to prove next week. The Cowboys then finish with Philly. A win would give them not only a playoff birth, but the NFC East crown. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Packers and Giants hold tiebreakers over them. So in the event that Dallas loses once and the Giants win out, it is the Cowboys who will be watching the playoffs on TV.
Bye, Bye Lovie
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Result: Ravens 31-7
The Ravens made a statement, just as I thought they would. A solid win for them as they move toward the playoffs. If they can win out, they're in. If Cincy loses out, they could still win the AFC North, though it is unlikely. Baltimore is probably looking at the 5-seed, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos, with whom they are currently tied. They also hold tiebreakers over everyone but the Jags (who play @ the Pats this week...) so even with a loss, their playoff future looks pretty secure.
Whatever...
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
Result: Browns 41-34
KC put up a good fight, and the Browns were somehow involved in another offensive battle against a crappy team. Neither has any postseason hopes, but both will have a chance to play spoiler. KC gets the Broncos in week 17, and Denver could be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Chiefs if they lose to Philly this week. Cleveland gets a shot at the Jags in week 17, and if they beat the Pats this week, a loss to the Browns would kill their playoff dreams.
Philly Stakes San Fran
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Result: Eagles 27-13
San Fran has officially been eliminated from contention in the NFC, but if you look back at their schedule, they have had a pretty good year. They almost beat the Vikings, they swept the NFC West's playoff team the Cardinals, and they've been very competitive against solid teams. There is plenty to look forward to for next year in San Fran. Philly is in for the playoffs, but there is still plenty to shoot for. If the Vikings falter, Philly could still get a bye. They're only one back, and they hold the tiebreaker. They could also lose the NFC East title with a loss @ Dallas and be forced into a wild card slot. Plenty of movement is possible for Philly...possible seeds range from #2 to #6!
Apathy Despite Playoff Hopes?
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Result: Texans 16-13
Why wouldn't Houston come out with passion when they still have a shot at the playoffs? Oh well. The Rams are out, but played with much more heart than they did last week, and almost got the upset. To win out, the Texans have to beat Miami, which would eliminate one competitor. They would be beaten on tiebreakers by the Ravens, Jets and Jags, and would need them to lose. The only team they can really get past is Tennessee. There is a shot, but they need a ton of help. Don't expect them to make the postseason.
Still Alive
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Result: Titans 27-24 (ot)
Both of these teams remain alive for playoff berths, though it doesn't look good for the Titans. Tennessee only holds a tiebreaker over Miami, and would need the Ravens and Broncos to lose out to have a shot. Miami holds tiebreakers over the Jets and and Jags, and would have to beat the Steelers to have a shot at the playoffs anyway. So they'll only need to worry about the Ravens and Broncos. If Denver loses to KC, Miami will get in over them. If the Broncos lose to Philly and beat KC, or if the Ravens lose only once, more tiebreakers will come into play, and I'd rather wait until we get a clearer picture of what is happening in the AFC before I go into figuring out strength of victory and other weird tiebreaker stats.
Defensive Battle
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Result: Falcons 10-7
This game turned out just like I thought it would, though I didn't realize it would take the Falcons quite so long to finally find the endzone. Atlanta holds no tiebreakers and is out of the playoffs, which is tough after such a great start. Injuries really killed their season. The Jets still have a shot, but a very tough road ahead, as they'll have to beat the Colts and Bengals to earn a playoff spot. Even then they'll need help. They hold tiebreakers over PIT, HOU, BAL and TEN, but would lose out to DEN, MIA or JAX in the event of a tie.
Talk about Limping into the Playoffs...
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -12. Arizona wins 41-17.
Result: Cards 31-24
Arizona has been playing awful lately. Rather than gaining confidence from last year's run and playing great football, the Cards seem to be overconfident, lacking in intensity, and content with backing into the playoffs. Yeah, they won, but it wasn't pretty. Arizona is very likely the #4 seed, though they could go as high as #2 if Philly and Minnesota lose their remaining games.
Still Not Dominating...
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Result: Pats 17-10
New England finally got that elusive first road win, yet Brady didn't look himself and the Pats have really not been playing football at the level we have come to expect from them. When they began blowing teams out mid-season, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the AFC Byes would go to Indy and New England. Not anymore. San Diego has come on strong, and will likely have the first week of the playoffs off. If San Diego loses its last two and NE wins out, the Pats will get the bye based on common opponents, with that stat coming down to San Diego's loss to Tennessee. They're tied in common opponents right now (2-2 each), but the Pats beat the Titans and the Chargers would have to lose to Tennessee to open the door for New England to get the bye. Again, not likely. Even if San Diego loses to the Titans, they finish up with Washington.
Hahahahaha
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Result: Raiders 20-19
I am very mad that I picked Denver. I truly thought I picked Oakland until I looked at the blog this morning. Check out my rationale...it was all positive for Oakland, and then I changed the pick at the last minute because Frye was the starting QB. I'm a dumbass. Anyway, the Broncos have faltered at the wrong time, and could miss the playoffs. Their Super Bowl is this week in Philly, because if they lose, they could be overtaken by one or more of the 7-7 teams by season's end. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have the tiebreaker over them, but a tie with Houston or Tennessee would favor Denver. They lost to Baltimore heads up, so the Ravens would need to lose twice for Denver to beat them out. If they're tied up with Miami or the Jets, it would come down to strength of victory. Denver has some solid wins, but I'm not going to officially figure that stat out until next week when there will be a clearer picture of the AFC Playoff race.
Heart of a Champion
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Result: Chargers 27-24
This game's title applies to both teams. To the Bengals for hanging with the Chargers the whole game, and to the Chargers for rising to the occasion and playing with great intensity to combat the Bengals' emotion. By far the best, most heartfelt Ochocinco touchdown celebration ever. A simple show of overwhelming emotion that fans of both teams can appreciate. These teams will both be in the playoffs, and may meet again soon with much more on the line. San Diego would have to lose out to relinquish the 2-seed, and Cincy would have to lose out to relinquish the division lead and fall back into a 9-7 tiebreaker scenario with half of the AFC. If they lose this week, I will figure out those tiebreakers. But they play Kansas City, and should wrap up the division.
Give Up Time?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Result: Buccaneers 24-7
Seattle should be embarassed. Tampa wanted a second win and Seattle looked like their minds were already on the offseason. They'll get yelled at this week and may come out with a little more intensity, but probably still won't win if their hearts aren't truly in it anymore.
Called It
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Result: Steelers 37-36
Green Bay is very beatable. Pittsburgh isn't ready to give up their slim playoff hopes just yet, but even a win streak to end the year is likely too little, too late. A Denver stumble would open the door, but the Steelers would still have to beat out any other 9-7 team that rises to the occasion. They have the tiebreaker on TEN, and would eliminate MIA by beating them in week 17. But the Jets would get in over PIT if they win out, as would JAX. HOU comes down to common opponents, which Houston wins thanks to PIT's loss to Oakland. So Pittsburgh fans need the Steelers to win out and will need NYJ, JAX, DEN and HOU to lose. Sounds crazy, but all 4 play a tough team or two, and I'd say the toughest part of this scenario will be Pittsburgh winning out.
Stumbling Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Result: Panthers 26-7
How can Peterson not be working? He's the best tool in the chest, and for some reason he's been on the fritz. It's like the Vikings are trying to give games away at this point. During the Panthers game, AP was thrown to on a quick screen and dropped it. If you've ever seen Brett Favre play, you know he was destined to give Peterson another shot. It came immediately. Another screen. Another drop. JUST AWFUL. And Bryant Mckinnie was useless against Peppers all game long. I think his benching will be a wake up call to him, but who knows? Minnesota can't dawdle, as another loss could lose them a bye week. And when your QB is 86 years old, a bye week is kinda important. Philly would have to win out and Minnesota would have to lose one game. The Vikings do, however, still have a shot at homefield advantage by winning out, but New Orleans is highly unlikely to lose to BOTH the Bucs and Panthers.
Staying Alive
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Result: Giants 45-12
Yes, the Redskins should be embarassed. But what I took away from this game is that the Giants defense is finally ready to step up. Or at least they were for one game. They'll need to keep up that intensity if this team is to make the playoffs, as they'll likely need to win out. If Dallas loses once and the G-men win out, New York is in. If Dallas loses twice (unlikely...they play the Skins...), the Giants can lose to Minnesota in week 17 and still get in. If the Cowboys win out, the Giants can still overtake the Packers with 2 wins and a Packers loss, as the Giants hold the common opponents tiebreaker.
My Playoff Predictions as of week 15:
AFC: 1-Colts, 2-Chargers, 3-Bengals, 4-Pats, 5-Ravens, 6-Steelers
NFC: 1-Saints, 2-Eagles, 3-Vikings, 4-Cardinals, 5-Packers, 6-Giants
Thursday, December 17, 2009
NFL Week Fifteen Preview
Thursday, December 17th:
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
Even with Sorgi I think the Colts will beat the Jags. Peyton will play for a little, and will likely get them out to a nice lead. Then the question becomes whether or not they can hold on. The Jags did beat the spread against them last time, so I wouldn't expect a total blowout, but I think the Colts can handle a spread of 3.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Saturday, December 19th:
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
The last time the Saints were faced with a decent opponent who had a chance to break their streak at home, they crushed the Patriots. I expect them to come out with the same intensity this week. Dallas will need to put forth its best effort to even contend with the Saints, and with Demarcus Ware questionable, I'm not sure how the defense will hold up. If the Saints play well, they'll crush the Cowboys. If they play mediocre, the Cowboys will still have to play their best to keep it close. If I'm a Saint, I see this as our last obstacle to an undefeated season. In other words, I'd be playing my ass off. Let's hope the Saints players see it that way.
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Sunday, December 20th:
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
The Ravens need to keep winning to sneak into the playoffs, and I don't see the Bears as much of a hurdle. After blowing out the Lions last week, I expect the Ravens to keep doing what they're supposed to do by beating the sub-.500 teams on their schedule. Keep in mind that Baltimore has only lost to good teams this season...
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
This is just an awful game. I can't imagine Chiefs and Browns fans will even want to watch this one. The problem with a game between 2 crap teams late in the season is that you never know if they'll come out with intensity or will come out sluggish because there isn't a whole lot to play for. These teams have played over the total all 3 meetings, and have the 30th and 31st ranked defenses in the league (Cleveland is worse, in case you were curious), so I'm going with a high scoring total. As for the pick itself...last week I remembered an old, very strange strategy for picking late season games that I don't care about. If team A beats team B, and team B beats team C, Team C has a tendency to beat Team A, even though it doesn't logically follow. That's the theory I'm trying here. Cleveland beat the Bills and the Bills beat KC...so it seems as though Cleveland should beat KC as well. My theory suggests otherwise.
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Here's a surprise for you...the 49ers are 9-3-1 ATS this season, and have dropped only 1 game ATS on the road (a pick 'em game in Seattle). San Fran has no playoff hopes with a loss, and if Philly wins and the Cowboys lose, which is likely, they'll have a 2-game lead in the division with 2 to play, and all the drama could be gone before the week 17 showdown between the Boys and Iggles. How often have you known the NFC East to be drama free in week 17? I think the situation will mean a close game, but with the newfound power running of Weaver, I think the Eagles are just too strong for San Fran. Plus the drama will still have a chance to build if Philly loses to Denver in week 16, which seems more likely than losing to San Fran.
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
Houston still has playoff hopes, albeit slim. If they win out, they can get in at 9-7 with a little help. So I can only imagine they'll be at the top of their game for the remainder of the season. St. Louis looked as though they had completely given up last week, and although I'm sure they'll get yelled at in practice, I'm not sure it can make them play with any more heart. Plus Boller has been ill, which could give the start to Keith Null. Which would make the St. Louis offense Null. Perfect name for a 3rd string QB!
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Both of these teams are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect this to be a great, hard-fought game. I think this will be the first game where Ronnie Brown's absence hurts the Dolphins offense enough that they can't overcome it. The Titans are #7 in the league against the run, and when a solid run defense plays angry, they are very tough to beat without trickery. If the Fins use a solid amount of Pat White (6+plays) in the wildcat, it might work. But for some reason I don't think that will be in their gameplan. Young's hamstring injury was classified as "mild", and I'll bet he can play in what amounts to the biggest game of the season for the Titans (at this point, each successive must-win is the biggest game of the year). If not, Collins is more than capable of stepping in, and has had a lot of reps in practice this week with Young sidelined. Keep in mind that the Young injury has forced Miami to gameplan for two very different offensive schemes, which limits the amount of time the team is able to work on-field to stop each one. What this game ultimately comes down to is the fact that I trust the Titans more in a must-win situation.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
Still no word on Ryan or Turner, so this will be tough to call. Both teams can technically still get in the playoffs, although Atlanta needs to win out and get a TON of help. In other words, I expect both teams to be playing with lots of heart. My problem is that, even with Sanchez back, I think the Jets offense will struggle against the Falcons D. I know I suggested that the Falcons D would keep them in the game 2 weeks ago against Philly, and that didn't happen, but the Jets O is a different animal. Even without Ryan and Turner, I think the Falcons can win this game, based on the level of play they showed last week against New Orleans. So hopefully they come out wanting to win.
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
Arizona's road stumble last week was a single occurrence, not a trend. They've been stellar on the road all year, and I imagine that will continue this week. Because they failed to beat the 49ers, a win this week won't clinch unless the 49ers lose. Which means that Arizona can't play lackadaisically anymore...they need two more wins to clinch the division for sure, and Detroit needs to be one of them. Plus Detroit has a crappy defense and Warner should shred it.
My Pick: Cardinals +12. Arizona wins 41-17.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
The Bills nearly beat the Pats in Foxboro, but that was in week one, when Brady was still getting used to the game again after a long absence. He's well entrenched now, and I can't imagine he'll struggle too much against Buffalo given the scope of this game. The Pats could legitimitely lose the division lead and miss the playoffs if they can't wrap things up against bad teams down the stretch. Buffalo has nowhere to go, and although they would love to put on a good show at home against the Pats, their hearts may not be in it. I have seen the Pats blow out the Bills enough times over the last few years to know that it is a very likely outcome, especially when the Pats are angry. Look for Moss to step up this week in the face of controversy and the Pats to win big.
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Denver. Except for one bad stretch earlier in the year, Oakland has come back strong from every bad loss. They've also played a very tough schedule, and have beaten some solid teams. Despite a 20-point loss to Denver earlier in the year, I expect the Raiders to come out with a purpose. Oh wait...their starting quarterback is who? Charlie Frye? Nevermind.
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
First of all best wishes are in order to the entire Bengals family following the loss of one of their own. Yet it is still my job to dissect the situation to determine how it will affect them. Certainly it will mean less practice time and a lot of emotional strain. But with the game on the road and the team forced to spend significantly more time together, I think this situation could rally them together in a "win one for Chris" sort of way. The Bengals have been a very emotional team all year, playing their best football in the biggest games. Now they've got a huge game and a ton of incentive to win. I say this situation helps them, but if they get blown out, the reason will be evident.
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
Seattle is a tough place to play, but can I really give 7 points to a team that has been so awful all year long? Tampa beat Green Bay, so we know they have some talent. As teams have figured out Freeman, though, the Bucs offense has become very stoppable. And the defense isn't very good either. If the Bucs beat the spread, I'll bet they win outright. I won't be totally shocked if it happens, as the Seahawks may very well have given up already, but the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Seattle. I think the homefield advantage will mean a lot, and if the Seahawks show up at all, I expect them to dominate.
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
Green Bay hasn't beaten any really great teams, but the Steelers have long since dropped off the list of teams considered "great". Pittsburgh's offense has been awful, and Green Bay has the #2 ranked defense in the league. Polamalu's absence means that Rodgers may have a chance to pick apart the Steeler D, but Green Bay has an awful O-line, so you never know if he'll have any time to throw the ball. For me, this one boils down to whether or not I trust the Steelers enough to pick them right now. Green Bay should find a way in the playoffs even with a loss, and although everyone says the Steelers are done, they aren't yet mathematically eliminated. If they win out and get a bunch of help, they could still be a playoff team. I expect them to play hard, especially at home, and I just don't feel comfortable picking the Packers to beat the tough, hard-nosed Steelers one week after outlasting the tough, hard-nosed Bears (despite them being a little "softer" than in years past).
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
The Vikings are trying to wrap up the bye so they can start resting QB Strom Thurmond so that he'll be somewhat fresh for the postseason. Carolina is done, and although they'd love to make the fans happy with a home win, the Vikings are really, really good. Carolina has a good pass D and a crappy run D...so what do you think will happen? AP will run all over them. To beat the Vikings you need defensive balance. And Delhomme is still questionable, which means the Vikings D will have a field day against Matt Moore. Who? Exactly.
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Monday, December 21st:
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
The Skins kept it close last time, but with the Giants needing a win to avoid certain playoff elimination, they're going to be playing with a lot of intensity. Green Bay is almost certain to get one wildcard spot, as they'll finish at least 10-6 unless they somehow blow 3 straight after losing only 4 to this point. Which means that the Giants are chasing whoever doesn't win the NFC East for the final wildcard spot. They hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, so if they can win out and watch Dallas drop at least 1 more game (highly likely) or if the Giants lose one more and watch Dallas lose twice (far less likely), then they could still get in. But that one potential loss needs to be reserved for week 17 in Minnesota, just in case, as that's the best team left on the Giants' schedule. A loss to Washington would be enough for me to declare them officially dead.
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
Even with Sorgi I think the Colts will beat the Jags. Peyton will play for a little, and will likely get them out to a nice lead. Then the question becomes whether or not they can hold on. The Jags did beat the spread against them last time, so I wouldn't expect a total blowout, but I think the Colts can handle a spread of 3.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Saturday, December 19th:
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
The last time the Saints were faced with a decent opponent who had a chance to break their streak at home, they crushed the Patriots. I expect them to come out with the same intensity this week. Dallas will need to put forth its best effort to even contend with the Saints, and with Demarcus Ware questionable, I'm not sure how the defense will hold up. If the Saints play well, they'll crush the Cowboys. If they play mediocre, the Cowboys will still have to play their best to keep it close. If I'm a Saint, I see this as our last obstacle to an undefeated season. In other words, I'd be playing my ass off. Let's hope the Saints players see it that way.
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Sunday, December 20th:
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
The Ravens need to keep winning to sneak into the playoffs, and I don't see the Bears as much of a hurdle. After blowing out the Lions last week, I expect the Ravens to keep doing what they're supposed to do by beating the sub-.500 teams on their schedule. Keep in mind that Baltimore has only lost to good teams this season...
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
This is just an awful game. I can't imagine Chiefs and Browns fans will even want to watch this one. The problem with a game between 2 crap teams late in the season is that you never know if they'll come out with intensity or will come out sluggish because there isn't a whole lot to play for. These teams have played over the total all 3 meetings, and have the 30th and 31st ranked defenses in the league (Cleveland is worse, in case you were curious), so I'm going with a high scoring total. As for the pick itself...last week I remembered an old, very strange strategy for picking late season games that I don't care about. If team A beats team B, and team B beats team C, Team C has a tendency to beat Team A, even though it doesn't logically follow. That's the theory I'm trying here. Cleveland beat the Bills and the Bills beat KC...so it seems as though Cleveland should beat KC as well. My theory suggests otherwise.
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Here's a surprise for you...the 49ers are 9-3-1 ATS this season, and have dropped only 1 game ATS on the road (a pick 'em game in Seattle). San Fran has no playoff hopes with a loss, and if Philly wins and the Cowboys lose, which is likely, they'll have a 2-game lead in the division with 2 to play, and all the drama could be gone before the week 17 showdown between the Boys and Iggles. How often have you known the NFC East to be drama free in week 17? I think the situation will mean a close game, but with the newfound power running of Weaver, I think the Eagles are just too strong for San Fran. Plus the drama will still have a chance to build if Philly loses to Denver in week 16, which seems more likely than losing to San Fran.
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
Houston still has playoff hopes, albeit slim. If they win out, they can get in at 9-7 with a little help. So I can only imagine they'll be at the top of their game for the remainder of the season. St. Louis looked as though they had completely given up last week, and although I'm sure they'll get yelled at in practice, I'm not sure it can make them play with any more heart. Plus Boller has been ill, which could give the start to Keith Null. Which would make the St. Louis offense Null. Perfect name for a 3rd string QB!
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Both of these teams are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect this to be a great, hard-fought game. I think this will be the first game where Ronnie Brown's absence hurts the Dolphins offense enough that they can't overcome it. The Titans are #7 in the league against the run, and when a solid run defense plays angry, they are very tough to beat without trickery. If the Fins use a solid amount of Pat White (6+plays) in the wildcat, it might work. But for some reason I don't think that will be in their gameplan. Young's hamstring injury was classified as "mild", and I'll bet he can play in what amounts to the biggest game of the season for the Titans (at this point, each successive must-win is the biggest game of the year). If not, Collins is more than capable of stepping in, and has had a lot of reps in practice this week with Young sidelined. Keep in mind that the Young injury has forced Miami to gameplan for two very different offensive schemes, which limits the amount of time the team is able to work on-field to stop each one. What this game ultimately comes down to is the fact that I trust the Titans more in a must-win situation.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
Still no word on Ryan or Turner, so this will be tough to call. Both teams can technically still get in the playoffs, although Atlanta needs to win out and get a TON of help. In other words, I expect both teams to be playing with lots of heart. My problem is that, even with Sanchez back, I think the Jets offense will struggle against the Falcons D. I know I suggested that the Falcons D would keep them in the game 2 weeks ago against Philly, and that didn't happen, but the Jets O is a different animal. Even without Ryan and Turner, I think the Falcons can win this game, based on the level of play they showed last week against New Orleans. So hopefully they come out wanting to win.
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
Arizona's road stumble last week was a single occurrence, not a trend. They've been stellar on the road all year, and I imagine that will continue this week. Because they failed to beat the 49ers, a win this week won't clinch unless the 49ers lose. Which means that Arizona can't play lackadaisically anymore...they need two more wins to clinch the division for sure, and Detroit needs to be one of them. Plus Detroit has a crappy defense and Warner should shred it.
My Pick: Cardinals +12. Arizona wins 41-17.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
The Bills nearly beat the Pats in Foxboro, but that was in week one, when Brady was still getting used to the game again after a long absence. He's well entrenched now, and I can't imagine he'll struggle too much against Buffalo given the scope of this game. The Pats could legitimitely lose the division lead and miss the playoffs if they can't wrap things up against bad teams down the stretch. Buffalo has nowhere to go, and although they would love to put on a good show at home against the Pats, their hearts may not be in it. I have seen the Pats blow out the Bills enough times over the last few years to know that it is a very likely outcome, especially when the Pats are angry. Look for Moss to step up this week in the face of controversy and the Pats to win big.
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Denver. Except for one bad stretch earlier in the year, Oakland has come back strong from every bad loss. They've also played a very tough schedule, and have beaten some solid teams. Despite a 20-point loss to Denver earlier in the year, I expect the Raiders to come out with a purpose. Oh wait...their starting quarterback is who? Charlie Frye? Nevermind.
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
First of all best wishes are in order to the entire Bengals family following the loss of one of their own. Yet it is still my job to dissect the situation to determine how it will affect them. Certainly it will mean less practice time and a lot of emotional strain. But with the game on the road and the team forced to spend significantly more time together, I think this situation could rally them together in a "win one for Chris" sort of way. The Bengals have been a very emotional team all year, playing their best football in the biggest games. Now they've got a huge game and a ton of incentive to win. I say this situation helps them, but if they get blown out, the reason will be evident.
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
Seattle is a tough place to play, but can I really give 7 points to a team that has been so awful all year long? Tampa beat Green Bay, so we know they have some talent. As teams have figured out Freeman, though, the Bucs offense has become very stoppable. And the defense isn't very good either. If the Bucs beat the spread, I'll bet they win outright. I won't be totally shocked if it happens, as the Seahawks may very well have given up already, but the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Seattle. I think the homefield advantage will mean a lot, and if the Seahawks show up at all, I expect them to dominate.
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
Green Bay hasn't beaten any really great teams, but the Steelers have long since dropped off the list of teams considered "great". Pittsburgh's offense has been awful, and Green Bay has the #2 ranked defense in the league. Polamalu's absence means that Rodgers may have a chance to pick apart the Steeler D, but Green Bay has an awful O-line, so you never know if he'll have any time to throw the ball. For me, this one boils down to whether or not I trust the Steelers enough to pick them right now. Green Bay should find a way in the playoffs even with a loss, and although everyone says the Steelers are done, they aren't yet mathematically eliminated. If they win out and get a bunch of help, they could still be a playoff team. I expect them to play hard, especially at home, and I just don't feel comfortable picking the Packers to beat the tough, hard-nosed Steelers one week after outlasting the tough, hard-nosed Bears (despite them being a little "softer" than in years past).
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
The Vikings are trying to wrap up the bye so they can start resting QB Strom Thurmond so that he'll be somewhat fresh for the postseason. Carolina is done, and although they'd love to make the fans happy with a home win, the Vikings are really, really good. Carolina has a good pass D and a crappy run D...so what do you think will happen? AP will run all over them. To beat the Vikings you need defensive balance. And Delhomme is still questionable, which means the Vikings D will have a field day against Matt Moore. Who? Exactly.
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Monday, December 21st:
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
The Skins kept it close last time, but with the Giants needing a win to avoid certain playoff elimination, they're going to be playing with a lot of intensity. Green Bay is almost certain to get one wildcard spot, as they'll finish at least 10-6 unless they somehow blow 3 straight after losing only 4 to this point. Which means that the Giants are chasing whoever doesn't win the NFC East for the final wildcard spot. They hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, so if they can win out and watch Dallas drop at least 1 more game (highly likely) or if the Giants lose one more and watch Dallas lose twice (far less likely), then they could still get in. But that one potential loss needs to be reserved for week 17 in Minnesota, just in case, as that's the best team left on the Giants' schedule. A loss to Washington would be enough for me to declare them officially dead.
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
NFL Week Fourteen Recap
Overall SU: 138-70 (13-3 wk 14)
Week 14 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 101-105-2
Done
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 33
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh wins 13-0.
Result: Browns 13-6
The Steelers are done. Unbelievable. How they came out with no intensity in a must win game against a crappy team baffles me. Guess Polamalu is the only player in the locker room with the ability to fire his team up.
Almost. Again.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 38-23.
Result: Saints 26-23
Once again New Orleans tried its best to lose to a "bad' team, but it just didn't happen. Atlanta is very good with Turner and Ryan, but without them, they are mediocre. Consider how badly the Eagles beat them last week in Atlanta and you will understand exactly why, despite their ups and downs, I chose the Saints to crush them. New Orleans will be going for the undefeated season, and if they actually TRY to win the last 3 games, they will. Homefield, bye, the works. Atlanta is done, despite a great start to the year. I expect them to come out strong next year and be a definite playoff team.
Figured
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -6
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 34-21.
Result: Texans 34-7
As I suspected, the Seahawks are a crummy, underachieving team that has already packed it in. Houston still sees themselves as having a shot at the playoffs. They absolutely must win out, and their schedule is about the same as the Titans', who need to win out as well. An easy one next week at STL, a middle-of-the-road game @ MIA, who may or may not still have a playoff shot by then, and a tough one at home against NE to close out the year, which may be do-able the way the Pats have played on the road this season. I'll leave off contingencies and tiebreakers for now. Step one is for them to win out. If they get the next two, we'll see what the AFC picture looks like. It is still possible that 9-7 won't be good enough.
In the Hunt
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 24-10.
Result: Dolphins 14-10
These teams both sit at 7-6, and would be all-but assured of a playoff spot with 3 more wins. If Miami can come through next week in Tennessee, they'll drop one if their potential contenders at 9-7 (Titans would no longer have a shot), and may be able to lose one more and still get in. @HOU in week 16 is also a tough game, as Houston will still have a shot at 9-7 at that point. Miami finishes off at home against the Steelers, which used to look like a tough game, but who knows what will happen at this point. My guess is that they'll lose to a resurgent Titans team and then beat Houston, at which point I will look at all the tiebreaker stuff that could happen if they beat the Steelers and go 9-7. The Jags host Indy, which should be a loss even against backups, and then travel to New England, where they will finally fall out of the playoff picture. They should beat the Browns in week 17 to finish 8-8.
Why do I Bother?
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6
O/U: 43
My Pick: Bengals +6. Minnesota still wins 24-20.
Result: Vikings 30-10
I loved the idea that Cincy had played all of its toughest opponents close, and really thought they'd be in this game. I guess I forgot how good the Vikings are in comparison to everyone else the Bengals have beaten. Those Steelers wins aren't looking as impressive anymore. Minnesota will likely win @CAR this week and then start resting Favre, which means anything can happen @Chi and at home to a New York Giants team that will likely need to win to make the postseason. But I expect them to have the Bye locked up long before then. Cincy has a 2-game lead in the division (3 if you consider that they have all the tiebreakers locked up), and has at least one more win on their schedule. @SD this week will be tough, but I think they will play with a chip on their shoulder, as they want to prove that they're good enough to compete for the AFC's spot in the Super Bowl; that will require them to go through either Indy or San Diego. They host KC in week 16 (easy win), and then wrap up the year @ NYJ, which should be a win, but who knows what the Jets will be playing for at that point. Cincy could have the North clinched with no chance at a bye and the Jets could be playing for a playoff berth. If so, New York may win on emotion alone, as we've seen that the Bengals are more like kittens when they aren't emotionally involved in the game.
What are the Pats?
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -13.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Patriots -13.5. New England makes a statement, 42-17.
Result: Pats 20-10
New England has become very human. I'm not sure what to make of this team that just a few weeks ago had the Colts on the ropes, and now can't even solidly beat a crappy Panthers team in their own stadium. Luckily for them they end with 3 "patsies" and should win the East at 11-5. Buffalo gave them a run earlier in the year, but with nothing to play for, I'm not sure they can compete again. Jacksonville has no shot at Foxboro, and if anything is still on the line, they should handle the Texans in Houston. No tiebreakers needed. Unless they crap the bed. In which case I'll break out the contingencies.
Still Trying
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins with defense, 16-7.
Result: Jets 26-3
After a 3-0 start, the Jets were a playoff shoe-in. Now, not so much. After struggling against some bad teams, the Jets quickly fell back down to earth. We'll see when Sanchez plays again, although I'm not sure Clemens gives them much different of an offensive prognosis. The Jets have a tough end to their season, and need to win out to guarantee themselves a spot. Atlanta will be no pushover this week, but as they are out of the playoff hunt, it may be a winnable game. Then the Jets have to go to Indy...Ouch. The Colts won't be using starters at that point, though, so maybe New York can get lucky. So let's say they can get to 9-6...then they host Cincy. Ouch again. Cincy should have the North wrapped up by then, and may not play starters, but who knows? If the Jets make the playoffs, I'd venture to guess that it will be a very soft 10-6 or 9-7 and that their last two opponents basically handed them wins. Which really stinks for all the teams competing against New York. My guess, however, is that they will win only one of those games, go 8-8, and have the entire city of New York all pissed off. But when the season began, 8-8 would have been good...the Jets weren't supposed to go anywhere.
How to almost give it away...
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: 0
O/U: 37
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo wins in a hostile environment 17-13.
Result: Bills 16-10
So you're trying to run clock with very little time left and a 6 point lead. Second down and 6, 2:05 on the clock. Why would you run up the middle? The clock is going to stop anyway. Throw the ball and see if you can get the first down. If Buffalo gets the first, the game is over. Instead they ran it twice and gave Cassel and the Chiefs a shot at a score. They completed a few passes over the middle, wasted a ton of time, couldn't hit the hail mary, and Buffalo won anyway. But you see my point. Buffalo doesn't play to win, they play not to lose. Which is why the league's longest active playoff drought will continue.
The Strategy Ain't Workin
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Broncos +7. Indy still wins 23-20.
Result: Colts 28-16
My gut would have been right, but my strategy got in the way. Again. I may need to scrap it next week. The Colts have everything wrapped up and are going to rest people. I think that will negatively impact their Super Bowl hopes, as everyone will lose the chemistry they have worked all season to attain. I expect a 15-1 final record from Indy, but am not sure which "patsy" will beat them. My guess is the @BUF game will be the one, as the Bills will finally have something to play for...to be the team that stopped "the streak". Denver can make the playoffs somewhat easily if they resist the urge to be dumbasses. They get Oakland and KC at home in weeks 15 and 17, respectively. They may get beaten in Philly in week 16, as the Eagles will still be playing hard trying to win the east, but 10-6 should be good enough for a playoff spot. And with a great secondary (and Dawkins' return to Philly), I probably shouldn't count Denver out of the Eagles game just yet.
Smashed
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore wins big 34-14.
Result: Ravens 48-3
As bad as the Lions have been, this was their worst loss in years (I forgot the year...suffice to say it was before their recent woes). Baltimore wanted to prove a point. And they did. I expect them to finish strong and go 10-6 unless the Steelers get in their way for presumably no reason. Chicago and Oakland should be wins for a team that has lost to only very good teams. Their worst loss? In Foxboro to the 8-5 Pats. Seriously. Even with 6 losses, every other one was to a team that now has at least 9 wins. Chicago and Oakland don't have 8 or 9 wins. So Baltimore ought to handle them. And if the Ravens do get into the playoffs, which I expect them to, their tough schedule will have them well prepared for battle, and I could see them surprising a team or two. I honestly think they have the personnel and talent, if everyone's healthy, to win the AFC.
Packer Surge
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 41
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins in Chicago 24-16.
Result: Packers 21-14
After the two losses to Minnesota, I really thought the Packers were in trouble. Then the loss to Tampa appeared to seal their fate. Or at least it would have had they not won every game since. Their defense is #2 in the league, and we all know Rodgers can throw the rock. I just don't think they can get past an elite team like the Vikings or Saints. Their losses have been to good teams, but their only wins over playoff contenders were Dallas and Baltimore, and both were at home. They will probably have a chance to prove themselves, though, as they seem like a playoff lock.
Don't care
Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Redskins -1
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Redskins -1. Washington wins 13-10.
Result: Redskins 34-13
Finally some points for the Redskins. God these teams suck.
Bad Pick
St. Louis Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -13
O/U: 41
My Pick: Rams +13. Titans still win 24-13.
Result: Titans 47-7
I kinda thought that a tough, determined Titans team would crush a crappy Rams team that had long since given up, but couldn't bring myself to pick it because the spread was so large. They seem to have covered it just fine. Hindsight is 20/20. Tennessee must win out, but given the schedules and likely scenarios in the AFC, 9-7 still may not be good enough. And I'm not sure they will beat San Diego anyway, unless they are resting starters. Might as well give it a shot, though. After week 15 I'll figure out some extra contingencies and tiebreakers and figure out exactly what must happen for Tennessee to get in. But first they must beat a Dolphins team that is also looking for a playoff berth.
Knew It
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Chargers +2.5. San Diego wins outright 24-23.
Result: Chargers 20-17
San Diego has been unstoppable, and I didn't think the Cowboys would be the team to end the streak. They are just awful in December. San Diego is easily in, and may even begin resting starters as soon as they officially lock up the bye week, which could happen if they beat Cincy this week. Dallas may not make it. They are clearly in running only for the wild card, as I believe they've already given up the division to Philly, unless a win in week 17 ties the teams and Dallas wins the tiebreaker on head-to-head record, which would be the case. The most likely scenario is that Philly will finish 11-5 and Dallas will finish 10-6, which will be tough anyway, as they'll have to beat either the Saints or Eagles to get there. Assume a 10-6 record...If the Giants win out (possible if Minny is resting starters in week 17), they'd win the tiebreaker with Dallas on head to head, and the Boys would be out. My prediction is that Green Bay is a lock, New York is out, and Dallas sneaks in at 10-6 or 9-7. Atlanta or San Fran would have to win out to get to 9-7 and make a tiebreaker necessary, and I highly doubt those scenarios. There just aren't enough teams with decent records to challenge Dallas, so they'll sneak in on early season success. And then bow out in round one. Hopefully to Arizona, because I would find that funny.
Flying High
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -1
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Giants -1. They need it more. New York wins 23-16.
Result: Eagles 45-38
This game was so good that it reminded me why I love the sport of football. So much back-and-forth action, tons of scoring...just a fabulous game by both teams. Unfortunately the Giants D (and special teams) had no answer for Desean Jackson, and the Eagles hit enough big plays to win it. That may be the final nail in the Giants' coffin, as they'll likely need to win out now just to have a shot. And with Minnesota still left on the schedule, winning out is going to be tough.
Seven
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Cardinals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Cardinals -3.5. Arizona wins 31-10.
Result: 49ers 24-9
Seven turnovers? Geez. They really didn't want to wrap up the division, did they? With Detroit and St. Louis left on the schedule, I see why the Cards weren't all that worried about the loss. They'll win the division easily. San Fran needs to win out and get help to have a shot at a playoff berth at 9-7, but will have to win in Philly this week to have any chance. If they do, though, they finish with STL and DET, so it could happen. But they'd also need Dallas to lose two more games (not unrealistic...). If it happens, the 49ers would get the tiebreaker on conference W/L, as their 3 wins would make them 8-4 in the NFC while Dallas' 1-2 stretch would drop them to 7-5.
Week 14 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 101-105-2
Done
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 33
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh wins 13-0.
Result: Browns 13-6
The Steelers are done. Unbelievable. How they came out with no intensity in a must win game against a crappy team baffles me. Guess Polamalu is the only player in the locker room with the ability to fire his team up.
Almost. Again.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 38-23.
Result: Saints 26-23
Once again New Orleans tried its best to lose to a "bad' team, but it just didn't happen. Atlanta is very good with Turner and Ryan, but without them, they are mediocre. Consider how badly the Eagles beat them last week in Atlanta and you will understand exactly why, despite their ups and downs, I chose the Saints to crush them. New Orleans will be going for the undefeated season, and if they actually TRY to win the last 3 games, they will. Homefield, bye, the works. Atlanta is done, despite a great start to the year. I expect them to come out strong next year and be a definite playoff team.
Figured
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -6
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 34-21.
Result: Texans 34-7
As I suspected, the Seahawks are a crummy, underachieving team that has already packed it in. Houston still sees themselves as having a shot at the playoffs. They absolutely must win out, and their schedule is about the same as the Titans', who need to win out as well. An easy one next week at STL, a middle-of-the-road game @ MIA, who may or may not still have a playoff shot by then, and a tough one at home against NE to close out the year, which may be do-able the way the Pats have played on the road this season. I'll leave off contingencies and tiebreakers for now. Step one is for them to win out. If they get the next two, we'll see what the AFC picture looks like. It is still possible that 9-7 won't be good enough.
In the Hunt
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 24-10.
Result: Dolphins 14-10
These teams both sit at 7-6, and would be all-but assured of a playoff spot with 3 more wins. If Miami can come through next week in Tennessee, they'll drop one if their potential contenders at 9-7 (Titans would no longer have a shot), and may be able to lose one more and still get in. @HOU in week 16 is also a tough game, as Houston will still have a shot at 9-7 at that point. Miami finishes off at home against the Steelers, which used to look like a tough game, but who knows what will happen at this point. My guess is that they'll lose to a resurgent Titans team and then beat Houston, at which point I will look at all the tiebreaker stuff that could happen if they beat the Steelers and go 9-7. The Jags host Indy, which should be a loss even against backups, and then travel to New England, where they will finally fall out of the playoff picture. They should beat the Browns in week 17 to finish 8-8.
Why do I Bother?
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6
O/U: 43
My Pick: Bengals +6. Minnesota still wins 24-20.
Result: Vikings 30-10
I loved the idea that Cincy had played all of its toughest opponents close, and really thought they'd be in this game. I guess I forgot how good the Vikings are in comparison to everyone else the Bengals have beaten. Those Steelers wins aren't looking as impressive anymore. Minnesota will likely win @CAR this week and then start resting Favre, which means anything can happen @Chi and at home to a New York Giants team that will likely need to win to make the postseason. But I expect them to have the Bye locked up long before then. Cincy has a 2-game lead in the division (3 if you consider that they have all the tiebreakers locked up), and has at least one more win on their schedule. @SD this week will be tough, but I think they will play with a chip on their shoulder, as they want to prove that they're good enough to compete for the AFC's spot in the Super Bowl; that will require them to go through either Indy or San Diego. They host KC in week 16 (easy win), and then wrap up the year @ NYJ, which should be a win, but who knows what the Jets will be playing for at that point. Cincy could have the North clinched with no chance at a bye and the Jets could be playing for a playoff berth. If so, New York may win on emotion alone, as we've seen that the Bengals are more like kittens when they aren't emotionally involved in the game.
What are the Pats?
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -13.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Patriots -13.5. New England makes a statement, 42-17.
Result: Pats 20-10
New England has become very human. I'm not sure what to make of this team that just a few weeks ago had the Colts on the ropes, and now can't even solidly beat a crappy Panthers team in their own stadium. Luckily for them they end with 3 "patsies" and should win the East at 11-5. Buffalo gave them a run earlier in the year, but with nothing to play for, I'm not sure they can compete again. Jacksonville has no shot at Foxboro, and if anything is still on the line, they should handle the Texans in Houston. No tiebreakers needed. Unless they crap the bed. In which case I'll break out the contingencies.
Still Trying
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins with defense, 16-7.
Result: Jets 26-3
After a 3-0 start, the Jets were a playoff shoe-in. Now, not so much. After struggling against some bad teams, the Jets quickly fell back down to earth. We'll see when Sanchez plays again, although I'm not sure Clemens gives them much different of an offensive prognosis. The Jets have a tough end to their season, and need to win out to guarantee themselves a spot. Atlanta will be no pushover this week, but as they are out of the playoff hunt, it may be a winnable game. Then the Jets have to go to Indy...Ouch. The Colts won't be using starters at that point, though, so maybe New York can get lucky. So let's say they can get to 9-6...then they host Cincy. Ouch again. Cincy should have the North wrapped up by then, and may not play starters, but who knows? If the Jets make the playoffs, I'd venture to guess that it will be a very soft 10-6 or 9-7 and that their last two opponents basically handed them wins. Which really stinks for all the teams competing against New York. My guess, however, is that they will win only one of those games, go 8-8, and have the entire city of New York all pissed off. But when the season began, 8-8 would have been good...the Jets weren't supposed to go anywhere.
How to almost give it away...
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: 0
O/U: 37
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo wins in a hostile environment 17-13.
Result: Bills 16-10
So you're trying to run clock with very little time left and a 6 point lead. Second down and 6, 2:05 on the clock. Why would you run up the middle? The clock is going to stop anyway. Throw the ball and see if you can get the first down. If Buffalo gets the first, the game is over. Instead they ran it twice and gave Cassel and the Chiefs a shot at a score. They completed a few passes over the middle, wasted a ton of time, couldn't hit the hail mary, and Buffalo won anyway. But you see my point. Buffalo doesn't play to win, they play not to lose. Which is why the league's longest active playoff drought will continue.
The Strategy Ain't Workin
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Broncos +7. Indy still wins 23-20.
Result: Colts 28-16
My gut would have been right, but my strategy got in the way. Again. I may need to scrap it next week. The Colts have everything wrapped up and are going to rest people. I think that will negatively impact their Super Bowl hopes, as everyone will lose the chemistry they have worked all season to attain. I expect a 15-1 final record from Indy, but am not sure which "patsy" will beat them. My guess is the @BUF game will be the one, as the Bills will finally have something to play for...to be the team that stopped "the streak". Denver can make the playoffs somewhat easily if they resist the urge to be dumbasses. They get Oakland and KC at home in weeks 15 and 17, respectively. They may get beaten in Philly in week 16, as the Eagles will still be playing hard trying to win the east, but 10-6 should be good enough for a playoff spot. And with a great secondary (and Dawkins' return to Philly), I probably shouldn't count Denver out of the Eagles game just yet.
Smashed
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore wins big 34-14.
Result: Ravens 48-3
As bad as the Lions have been, this was their worst loss in years (I forgot the year...suffice to say it was before their recent woes). Baltimore wanted to prove a point. And they did. I expect them to finish strong and go 10-6 unless the Steelers get in their way for presumably no reason. Chicago and Oakland should be wins for a team that has lost to only very good teams. Their worst loss? In Foxboro to the 8-5 Pats. Seriously. Even with 6 losses, every other one was to a team that now has at least 9 wins. Chicago and Oakland don't have 8 or 9 wins. So Baltimore ought to handle them. And if the Ravens do get into the playoffs, which I expect them to, their tough schedule will have them well prepared for battle, and I could see them surprising a team or two. I honestly think they have the personnel and talent, if everyone's healthy, to win the AFC.
Packer Surge
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 41
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins in Chicago 24-16.
Result: Packers 21-14
After the two losses to Minnesota, I really thought the Packers were in trouble. Then the loss to Tampa appeared to seal their fate. Or at least it would have had they not won every game since. Their defense is #2 in the league, and we all know Rodgers can throw the rock. I just don't think they can get past an elite team like the Vikings or Saints. Their losses have been to good teams, but their only wins over playoff contenders were Dallas and Baltimore, and both were at home. They will probably have a chance to prove themselves, though, as they seem like a playoff lock.
Don't care
Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Redskins -1
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Redskins -1. Washington wins 13-10.
Result: Redskins 34-13
Finally some points for the Redskins. God these teams suck.
Bad Pick
St. Louis Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -13
O/U: 41
My Pick: Rams +13. Titans still win 24-13.
Result: Titans 47-7
I kinda thought that a tough, determined Titans team would crush a crappy Rams team that had long since given up, but couldn't bring myself to pick it because the spread was so large. They seem to have covered it just fine. Hindsight is 20/20. Tennessee must win out, but given the schedules and likely scenarios in the AFC, 9-7 still may not be good enough. And I'm not sure they will beat San Diego anyway, unless they are resting starters. Might as well give it a shot, though. After week 15 I'll figure out some extra contingencies and tiebreakers and figure out exactly what must happen for Tennessee to get in. But first they must beat a Dolphins team that is also looking for a playoff berth.
Knew It
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Chargers +2.5. San Diego wins outright 24-23.
Result: Chargers 20-17
San Diego has been unstoppable, and I didn't think the Cowboys would be the team to end the streak. They are just awful in December. San Diego is easily in, and may even begin resting starters as soon as they officially lock up the bye week, which could happen if they beat Cincy this week. Dallas may not make it. They are clearly in running only for the wild card, as I believe they've already given up the division to Philly, unless a win in week 17 ties the teams and Dallas wins the tiebreaker on head-to-head record, which would be the case. The most likely scenario is that Philly will finish 11-5 and Dallas will finish 10-6, which will be tough anyway, as they'll have to beat either the Saints or Eagles to get there. Assume a 10-6 record...If the Giants win out (possible if Minny is resting starters in week 17), they'd win the tiebreaker with Dallas on head to head, and the Boys would be out. My prediction is that Green Bay is a lock, New York is out, and Dallas sneaks in at 10-6 or 9-7. Atlanta or San Fran would have to win out to get to 9-7 and make a tiebreaker necessary, and I highly doubt those scenarios. There just aren't enough teams with decent records to challenge Dallas, so they'll sneak in on early season success. And then bow out in round one. Hopefully to Arizona, because I would find that funny.
Flying High
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -1
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Giants -1. They need it more. New York wins 23-16.
Result: Eagles 45-38
This game was so good that it reminded me why I love the sport of football. So much back-and-forth action, tons of scoring...just a fabulous game by both teams. Unfortunately the Giants D (and special teams) had no answer for Desean Jackson, and the Eagles hit enough big plays to win it. That may be the final nail in the Giants' coffin, as they'll likely need to win out now just to have a shot. And with Minnesota still left on the schedule, winning out is going to be tough.
Seven
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Cardinals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Cardinals -3.5. Arizona wins 31-10.
Result: 49ers 24-9
Seven turnovers? Geez. They really didn't want to wrap up the division, did they? With Detroit and St. Louis left on the schedule, I see why the Cards weren't all that worried about the loss. They'll win the division easily. San Fran needs to win out and get help to have a shot at a playoff berth at 9-7, but will have to win in Philly this week to have any chance. If they do, though, they finish with STL and DET, so it could happen. But they'd also need Dallas to lose two more games (not unrealistic...). If it happens, the 49ers would get the tiebreaker on conference W/L, as their 3 wins would make them 8-4 in the NFC while Dallas' 1-2 stretch would drop them to 7-5.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
NFL Week Fourteen Preview
Thursday, December 10th:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 33
The Steelers are very angry to be in the position in which they've found themselves...losers of 4 straight, they must win out to have a chance at a playoff berth. And since it's the defense's fault, I expect them to come out hungry to show that they can still control a football game. Plus Cleveland's offense is pretty useless. Then again, Hines Ward will likely be out, Polamalu is definitely out, and the weather will be cold and snowy. Last season the Steelers played a home game against Cincy in similar conditions and were favored by 9. I chose the Bengals because I thought the snow would limit the Steelers' scoring. It didn't, and they won by 17. So now I have a decision on my hands. I don't necessarily trust the Steelers' run game against the Browns' D if there is no legitimate passing threat. Then again, Pittsburgh can use this opportunity to get back to their "typical" game plan, which involves rushing, ball control, and defense. If they do, they'll win by plenty. Because the Steelers' D is #1 in the NFL in rush defense, and rushing may be the only choice for Cleveland if the weather is atrocious, I have to take Pitt.
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh wins 13-0.
Sunday, December 13th:
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 50
This is the game I've looked at since week 5 as the possible downfall of the Saints perfect season. Atlanta isn't an easy place to play, and the Saints almost lost to the damn Redskins last week. It is tough to pick this game today (Thursday), though, as Turner and Ryan are still questionable...if they play, it could be close, and I wouldn't even be surprised by a Falcon win. But picking based on the probability that they won't play, and that if they do play they'll be less than 100%, I have to choose New Orleans. They know this is one of the few high hurdles they have left to jump, and they'll be ready to play. And after last week's performance, I'm not going to pick the Atlanta defense to step up and shut down the league's best offense.
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 38-23.
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -6
O/U: 44.5
The Texans have lost 4 in a row to drop out of the playoff hunt, but I'd still be shocked if they didn't get to 8-8 by season's end. So they need to win this one. Seattle has been awful on the road all year (0-5 ATS), and Houston is very good at home in December (12-2 ATS last 14). It's time for Houston to break out of its funk.
My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 34-21.
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 44
The only .500 team the Jags have beaten this year was the Jets, and I still say that was a fluke. And by the end of the year, I expect the Jets to be under .500 anyway. This is a football team that has gotten into the playoff picture simply by being a middle-of-the-road team that beats almost everyone it is supposed to beat, but never really does much against a good team. And they lost 41-0 @Seattle. That's just awful. The Dolphins have gotten themselves in position to legitimately contend for a wild card spot, and I don't think they'll blow it against the Jaguars. But I guess you never know. Odd Stat of the week: The road team has won the past 2 meetings by a score of 24-10. So let's go for 3!
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 24-10.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6
O/U: 43
Let me start off by saying that I think Minnesota is the better team, and could very well be this year's Super Bowl Champion. They're that good. Cincy has also played well, and though I don't think they're at Minnesota's level, I do see them competing in this football game. They've played their better opponents very well thus far, and had they not fallen asleep against the "tomato cans" on their schedule, they could be undefeated right now. Cincy is also 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) in their last 5 games against the NFC North. I refuse to pick against the Vikes at home, but this is likely to be a more competitive game than a 6 point spread would have you believe.
My Pick: Bengals +6. Minnesota still wins 24-20.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -13.5
O/U: 44
I don't think the Pats are as good as people expected, but I certainly don't think they're as bad as everyone is saying they are right now. They've only lost on the road, and are looking to beat up on somebody this week to show that they are still capable of a deep playoff run. Carolina travels to Foxboro at the worst possible time, especially with DelHomme unlikely to play. Despite Carolina's 6th ranked pass D, this one could be out of hand by halftime.
My Pick: Patriots -13.5. New England makes a statement, 42-17.
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
I think Tampa's mid-season "success" was a result of teams' inability to really scout Josh Freeman. Now that there is significant tape on him within the confines of the Tampa offensive system, he hasn't been quite so spectacular. Plus the Jets have the league's best pass D to this point. Even with Kellen Clemens getting the start, I think the Jets will pull this one out.
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins with defense, 16-7.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: 0
O/U: 37
This is a tough one to pick, because I have to eliminate my Bills bias. They are 7-2 ATS in thier last 9 against KC, but I worry about their last-place run defense, which can be exploited at any time. The Pass D is #4 though (I wonder if there has ever been that big of a discrepancy between a defense's pass and run stats before...), and if they can get a few INTs and shut down the KC air attack (I'm being generous by calling it an attack...) they should be able to win the game.
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo wins in a hostile environment 17-13.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
Once again I have to decide whether or not to go with my Denver picking strategy or my strong gut feeling. Denver was on the decline until they stepped up big the past two weeks, but I still don't think they're quite what everyone though they'd be after a 6-0 start. Indy is very good, and I expect Peyton to lead them to a win even though he'll have to do it against the league's second-best pass defense. Denver is only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 trips to Indy, and I expect Indy to make a statement with a lopsided victory. But I can't bet on it...
My Pick: Broncos +7. Indy still wins 23-20.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 39.5
Baltimore needs a win badly if they're going to make the playoffs, and Detroit is starting Culpepper. Even though Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against Baltimore, I expect Flacco to get the offense moving against the league's 3rd-worst total defense and to have the Ravens looking like the team we saw in the first 3 weeks of the season.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore wins big 34-14.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 41
Green Bay's numbers are surprisingly solid...#1 in total defense, #6 in total offense. They've lost one crappy game (@Tampa), but their other 3 losses have been to very good teams. The same can be said of the Chicago Bears, whose worst loss was to a solid San Francisco team. Green Bay is making a playoff run, is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to the windy city, and should be able to beat the Bears for the second time this season. In this case, I really want to throw all the numbers out the window and say that a tough NFC North battle will be won by the home underdog. But in the face of insurmountable evidence to the contrary, I have to go with percentages, and there is much higher than a 50% chance that this will be a big Packers win.
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins in Chicago 24-16.
Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Redskins -1
O/U: 37.5
Hooray! It's the who-the-hell-cares bowl! Oakland sucks, and has been historically awful at home in December since 2005 (2-8 SU). Plus Washington has beaten 4 spreads in a row. So I'm picking solely based on the trends. We'll see how it works out, though I am worried that the Skins haven't beaten a spread as a favorite all year long.
My Pick: Redskins -1. Washington wins 13-10.
St. Louis Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -13
O/U: 41
Who would have thought that a team that began 0-6 would end up as a 13-point favorite by week 14? I'm tempted to pick against the big spread, knowing full well that the Rams can stay in this game. I worry, though, that Young is tough enough to defend that he could lead his team to a lot of points against a bad defense and that the Titans want to show that last week was the only obstacle they'll trip over as they roll to a 9-7 final record. Has anyone ever said "roll to a 9-7 record" before? I doubt it. All in all, I just can't give a team that started 0-6 a 13-point cushion. Too much can go wrong.
My Pick: Rams +13. Titans still win 24-13.
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 48.5
As odd as this may sound, I'd be more tempted to pick the Cowboys if this game was being played in San Diego. First of all, they have to deal with local fans and media who think this team is destined for another collapse. That can't be helpful to their mental preparation, and I worry that some of them are actively thinking about it, which makes it even worse. Secondly, San Diego has been playing so well that, at some point, they are due for a letdown. The nature of being cooped up together in a hotel on the road helps teams facing a letdown to remain focused on the next game. In this case, I think that will be enough to keep the Chargers on the winning track and headed for a first-round playoff bye.
My Pick: Chargers +2.5. San Diego wins outright 24-23.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -1
O/U: 44.5
I don't know why, but when two NFC east foes meet up toward the end of the season with a spread of less than 3, I always feel as though I should just flip a coin. Especially when Philly's involved. Last year, they came out of nowhere and ended up in the NFC title game. Yet the Giants were the better team all regular season long. This year, Philly has been better, yet the G-men need wins to make a playoff surge and Philly still needs to win games to overtake Dallas. I honestly have no strong opinion on this game. Philly won big last week, which may mean they'll falter this week. Then again, they beat the Giants pretty handily at home, so why wouldn't they be able to do it again on the road? And yet a third nugget to throw in the mix: New York still hasn't gotten payback on the Eagles for knocking them out of the playoffs last year. Philly is also 0-2 as an underdog this season. The only thing I have any opinion on is the score, which has been low 11 of the last 13 times they've played in NY (under 11-2), which suggests that the Giants may be able to stop Philly from connecting on the big play, which would limit them offensively.
My Pick: Giants -1. They need it more. New York wins 23-16.
Monday, December 14th:
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Cardinals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Yes, the 49ers beat them earlier in the year. But that was a long time ago, and now the Cardinals are looking quite good again. They've also been a powerhouse on the road this year, a complete role reversal from last season, and have only lost once ATS away from the birdhouse all year (@STL). San Fran has progrssively gotten worse as teams have figured out how to beat them, and they're no longer in contention for a playoff spot unless they beat the Cards and then win out, which is very unlikely. The NFC West race should end this weekend.
My Pick: Cardinals -3.5. Arizona wins 31-10.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 33
The Steelers are very angry to be in the position in which they've found themselves...losers of 4 straight, they must win out to have a chance at a playoff berth. And since it's the defense's fault, I expect them to come out hungry to show that they can still control a football game. Plus Cleveland's offense is pretty useless. Then again, Hines Ward will likely be out, Polamalu is definitely out, and the weather will be cold and snowy. Last season the Steelers played a home game against Cincy in similar conditions and were favored by 9. I chose the Bengals because I thought the snow would limit the Steelers' scoring. It didn't, and they won by 17. So now I have a decision on my hands. I don't necessarily trust the Steelers' run game against the Browns' D if there is no legitimate passing threat. Then again, Pittsburgh can use this opportunity to get back to their "typical" game plan, which involves rushing, ball control, and defense. If they do, they'll win by plenty. Because the Steelers' D is #1 in the NFL in rush defense, and rushing may be the only choice for Cleveland if the weather is atrocious, I have to take Pitt.
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh wins 13-0.
Sunday, December 13th:
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 50
This is the game I've looked at since week 5 as the possible downfall of the Saints perfect season. Atlanta isn't an easy place to play, and the Saints almost lost to the damn Redskins last week. It is tough to pick this game today (Thursday), though, as Turner and Ryan are still questionable...if they play, it could be close, and I wouldn't even be surprised by a Falcon win. But picking based on the probability that they won't play, and that if they do play they'll be less than 100%, I have to choose New Orleans. They know this is one of the few high hurdles they have left to jump, and they'll be ready to play. And after last week's performance, I'm not going to pick the Atlanta defense to step up and shut down the league's best offense.
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 38-23.
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -6
O/U: 44.5
The Texans have lost 4 in a row to drop out of the playoff hunt, but I'd still be shocked if they didn't get to 8-8 by season's end. So they need to win this one. Seattle has been awful on the road all year (0-5 ATS), and Houston is very good at home in December (12-2 ATS last 14). It's time for Houston to break out of its funk.
My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 34-21.
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 44
The only .500 team the Jags have beaten this year was the Jets, and I still say that was a fluke. And by the end of the year, I expect the Jets to be under .500 anyway. This is a football team that has gotten into the playoff picture simply by being a middle-of-the-road team that beats almost everyone it is supposed to beat, but never really does much against a good team. And they lost 41-0 @Seattle. That's just awful. The Dolphins have gotten themselves in position to legitimately contend for a wild card spot, and I don't think they'll blow it against the Jaguars. But I guess you never know. Odd Stat of the week: The road team has won the past 2 meetings by a score of 24-10. So let's go for 3!
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 24-10.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6
O/U: 43
Let me start off by saying that I think Minnesota is the better team, and could very well be this year's Super Bowl Champion. They're that good. Cincy has also played well, and though I don't think they're at Minnesota's level, I do see them competing in this football game. They've played their better opponents very well thus far, and had they not fallen asleep against the "tomato cans" on their schedule, they could be undefeated right now. Cincy is also 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) in their last 5 games against the NFC North. I refuse to pick against the Vikes at home, but this is likely to be a more competitive game than a 6 point spread would have you believe.
My Pick: Bengals +6. Minnesota still wins 24-20.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -13.5
O/U: 44
I don't think the Pats are as good as people expected, but I certainly don't think they're as bad as everyone is saying they are right now. They've only lost on the road, and are looking to beat up on somebody this week to show that they are still capable of a deep playoff run. Carolina travels to Foxboro at the worst possible time, especially with DelHomme unlikely to play. Despite Carolina's 6th ranked pass D, this one could be out of hand by halftime.
My Pick: Patriots -13.5. New England makes a statement, 42-17.
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
I think Tampa's mid-season "success" was a result of teams' inability to really scout Josh Freeman. Now that there is significant tape on him within the confines of the Tampa offensive system, he hasn't been quite so spectacular. Plus the Jets have the league's best pass D to this point. Even with Kellen Clemens getting the start, I think the Jets will pull this one out.
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins with defense, 16-7.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: 0
O/U: 37
This is a tough one to pick, because I have to eliminate my Bills bias. They are 7-2 ATS in thier last 9 against KC, but I worry about their last-place run defense, which can be exploited at any time. The Pass D is #4 though (I wonder if there has ever been that big of a discrepancy between a defense's pass and run stats before...), and if they can get a few INTs and shut down the KC air attack (I'm being generous by calling it an attack...) they should be able to win the game.
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo wins in a hostile environment 17-13.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
Once again I have to decide whether or not to go with my Denver picking strategy or my strong gut feeling. Denver was on the decline until they stepped up big the past two weeks, but I still don't think they're quite what everyone though they'd be after a 6-0 start. Indy is very good, and I expect Peyton to lead them to a win even though he'll have to do it against the league's second-best pass defense. Denver is only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 trips to Indy, and I expect Indy to make a statement with a lopsided victory. But I can't bet on it...
My Pick: Broncos +7. Indy still wins 23-20.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 39.5
Baltimore needs a win badly if they're going to make the playoffs, and Detroit is starting Culpepper. Even though Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against Baltimore, I expect Flacco to get the offense moving against the league's 3rd-worst total defense and to have the Ravens looking like the team we saw in the first 3 weeks of the season.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore wins big 34-14.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 41
Green Bay's numbers are surprisingly solid...#1 in total defense, #6 in total offense. They've lost one crappy game (@Tampa), but their other 3 losses have been to very good teams. The same can be said of the Chicago Bears, whose worst loss was to a solid San Francisco team. Green Bay is making a playoff run, is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to the windy city, and should be able to beat the Bears for the second time this season. In this case, I really want to throw all the numbers out the window and say that a tough NFC North battle will be won by the home underdog. But in the face of insurmountable evidence to the contrary, I have to go with percentages, and there is much higher than a 50% chance that this will be a big Packers win.
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins in Chicago 24-16.
Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Redskins -1
O/U: 37.5
Hooray! It's the who-the-hell-cares bowl! Oakland sucks, and has been historically awful at home in December since 2005 (2-8 SU). Plus Washington has beaten 4 spreads in a row. So I'm picking solely based on the trends. We'll see how it works out, though I am worried that the Skins haven't beaten a spread as a favorite all year long.
My Pick: Redskins -1. Washington wins 13-10.
St. Louis Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -13
O/U: 41
Who would have thought that a team that began 0-6 would end up as a 13-point favorite by week 14? I'm tempted to pick against the big spread, knowing full well that the Rams can stay in this game. I worry, though, that Young is tough enough to defend that he could lead his team to a lot of points against a bad defense and that the Titans want to show that last week was the only obstacle they'll trip over as they roll to a 9-7 final record. Has anyone ever said "roll to a 9-7 record" before? I doubt it. All in all, I just can't give a team that started 0-6 a 13-point cushion. Too much can go wrong.
My Pick: Rams +13. Titans still win 24-13.
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 48.5
As odd as this may sound, I'd be more tempted to pick the Cowboys if this game was being played in San Diego. First of all, they have to deal with local fans and media who think this team is destined for another collapse. That can't be helpful to their mental preparation, and I worry that some of them are actively thinking about it, which makes it even worse. Secondly, San Diego has been playing so well that, at some point, they are due for a letdown. The nature of being cooped up together in a hotel on the road helps teams facing a letdown to remain focused on the next game. In this case, I think that will be enough to keep the Chargers on the winning track and headed for a first-round playoff bye.
My Pick: Chargers +2.5. San Diego wins outright 24-23.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -1
O/U: 44.5
I don't know why, but when two NFC east foes meet up toward the end of the season with a spread of less than 3, I always feel as though I should just flip a coin. Especially when Philly's involved. Last year, they came out of nowhere and ended up in the NFC title game. Yet the Giants were the better team all regular season long. This year, Philly has been better, yet the G-men need wins to make a playoff surge and Philly still needs to win games to overtake Dallas. I honestly have no strong opinion on this game. Philly won big last week, which may mean they'll falter this week. Then again, they beat the Giants pretty handily at home, so why wouldn't they be able to do it again on the road? And yet a third nugget to throw in the mix: New York still hasn't gotten payback on the Eagles for knocking them out of the playoffs last year. Philly is also 0-2 as an underdog this season. The only thing I have any opinion on is the score, which has been low 11 of the last 13 times they've played in NY (under 11-2), which suggests that the Giants may be able to stop Philly from connecting on the big play, which would limit them offensively.
My Pick: Giants -1. They need it more. New York wins 23-16.
Monday, December 14th:
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Cardinals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Yes, the 49ers beat them earlier in the year. But that was a long time ago, and now the Cardinals are looking quite good again. They've also been a powerhouse on the road this year, a complete role reversal from last season, and have only lost once ATS away from the birdhouse all year (@STL). San Fran has progrssively gotten worse as teams have figured out how to beat them, and they're no longer in contention for a playoff spot unless they beat the Cards and then win out, which is very unlikely. The NFC West race should end this weekend.
My Pick: Cardinals -3.5. Arizona wins 31-10.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
NFL Week Thirteen Recap
Overall SU: 125-67 (8-8 wk 13)
Week 13 ATS: 4-12
Overall ATS: 93-97-2
Worst. Week. Ever. I'm pissed, so these will be brief. Most of these outcomes couldn't even have been foreseen. Oakland wins @ Pitt? Zona rolls the Vikes? Cleveland scores TWICE late to beat the spread against SD? NE, SF, and ATL don't even show up? New Orleans almost blew a perfect season against the frigging REDSKINS? What are the odds that everyone would shit the bed at the same damn time?
Starting off 1-0 makes Sunday an even bigger atrocity...
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (Toronto, ONT)
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 17-13.
Result: Jets 19-13
I was darn close on this score. No surprises. But if Sanchez is out for any length of time (and they won't risk the rookie QB unless he's 100%), the Jets are done. Probably weren't headed for the postseason anyway.
It Begins...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Falcons +5.5. Philly wins, but the Falcons D keeps em close. 20-16.
Result: Eagles 34-7
Atlanta's defense needed to play insanely well to keep this banged-up team in the game (and in the playoff race). They didn't, and they aren't. Sorry ATL...they were good, but apparently not good enough to play in January. Count them out.
Don't care...
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -4.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Chiefs +4.5. Going out on a limb: Chiefs win outright 23-20.
Result: Broncos 44-13
If my gut is right and my picking strategy screws me on the painfully inconsistent Broncos, then I really can't be mad. In the grand scheme of things, I could have used the game win, but oh well.
Playing Down to the Competition, Are we?
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -9.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Saints -9.5. New Orleans wins 27-17.
Result: Saints 33-30 (ot)
The Skins should not score 30 points on anyone, let alone a team that is undefeated 12 weeks into the year and has super bowl aspirations. Awful. You should have won, Washington. Too bad Suisham sucks as bad as your offense does.
(redacted-foul language)
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Steelers win 27-10.
Result: Raiders 27-24
There is very little that I can say that would be fit for the eyes of a widespread internet audience. Pittsburgh will not be in the playoffs, despite me picking them to repeat, although I immediately regretted that decision. 3 blown fourth quarter leads. Against the Raiders. By the Steeler D. At home. What the #$%^?
GODDAMMIT...GO THE $%$% AWAY!
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: 0
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Texans (pk). Houston wins easily 30-13.
Result: Jags 23-18
Jacksonville is not good. They have no business in the playoff hunt. The Texans have now lost to them twice, and those are the Jags best 2 wins. And Houston is now under .500, so the Jags are 7-5 without a win over a .500 team. If they make the playoffs, I'll be pissed. Granted it won't be a far jog from ticked off, which is where I currently stand.
Got one...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -6
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Panthers -6. Carolina wins 30-20.
Result: Panthers 16-6
Called Panthers by 10, it happened, so not much more to say. Neither team is going anywhere, and this is the point in the season at which I lose interest in non-contenders.
Another good call...
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -13
O/U: 42
My Pick: Lions +13. Cincy wins 30-20.
Result: Bengals 23-13
Called a 10-point win and it happened again. This one slightly more impressive than the last due to the need to pick the Lions to cover on the road. Amazing that I could have such a poor overall week, yet be so close on the games I did get right.
Score some points, Cutler...
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears -9. Chicago finally puts on a show for the fans, 31-13.
Result: Bears 17-9
For heavens sake, Chicago, it was the Rams Defense! Jerks. Should have had this one.
This one was my fault...
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Titans +6.5. Tennessee Ends the Streak 24-21.
Result: Colts 27-17
I've been high on the Colts all year, and picked them to beat the Pats when few others did. I should not have changed my position. The Colts shouldn't lose again, and if they do, I'll be getting that game wrong. The Titans are now out of the playoff picture (2 teams should be able to get to 10-6), but they did put on a good show.
Dammit Brady...What the Hell?
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Patriots -5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Pats -5. New England rolls 34-13.
Result: Fins 22-21
The Pats scored 21 points in the first 33 minutes...and then stopped? Come on. What is going on lately? They should still win the division, but aren't going far thereafter unless something changes. Unlike typical Pats teams, they are playing very inconsistent.
Late Scores Suck
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Chargers -13
O/U: 43
My Pick: Chargers -13. San Diego rolls 38-9.
Result: Chargers 30-23
I picked the Chargers to roll, and for the most part they did. But Cleveland decided to score 16 points in the 4th, including 9 in the last 2 minutes, to screw those who bet the Chargers. It happens, but it always leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
Way to Blow, 49ers
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: 0
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: 49ers (pk). San Fran wins 23-13.
Result: Seahawks 20-17
The perfect spread for me...all they had to do was win the freaking game against a terrible team. And they didn't. Come ON.
Another solid pick...
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Giants +2.5. New York sweeps the Cowboys with a 20-14 win.
Result: Giants 31-24
Higher scoring than I thought, but I said 6 and the G-men won by 7. Dallas is awful at this time of the year. They'll give the division to the Eagles, but may still claim a wild card (possibly with NY). But I'd bet on them missing the playoffs altogether.
Of Course...
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Vikings roll 34-20.
Result: Cards 30-17
Arizona has stepped up and beaten solid teams all year, but haven't done it at home until now. Of course they waited until I was already going to have a crappy week to show up and win big at home against a really good team. Lovely.
And for good measure...
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins outright 23-17.
Result: Packers 27-14
I know what I've picked, and I know when I really need a Monday Night game to go my way to try to salvage the picks for that week. So this was just icing on the cake. The Ravens O didn't do much, and the Packers D just keeps getting better. I have been waiting for them to falter, but they haven't. All of a sudden, Green Bay looks like a playoff team. And Baltimore will have to start winning if they expect to be one, too.
Week 13 ATS: 4-12
Overall ATS: 93-97-2
Worst. Week. Ever. I'm pissed, so these will be brief. Most of these outcomes couldn't even have been foreseen. Oakland wins @ Pitt? Zona rolls the Vikes? Cleveland scores TWICE late to beat the spread against SD? NE, SF, and ATL don't even show up? New Orleans almost blew a perfect season against the frigging REDSKINS? What are the odds that everyone would shit the bed at the same damn time?
Starting off 1-0 makes Sunday an even bigger atrocity...
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (Toronto, ONT)
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 17-13.
Result: Jets 19-13
I was darn close on this score. No surprises. But if Sanchez is out for any length of time (and they won't risk the rookie QB unless he's 100%), the Jets are done. Probably weren't headed for the postseason anyway.
It Begins...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Falcons +5.5. Philly wins, but the Falcons D keeps em close. 20-16.
Result: Eagles 34-7
Atlanta's defense needed to play insanely well to keep this banged-up team in the game (and in the playoff race). They didn't, and they aren't. Sorry ATL...they were good, but apparently not good enough to play in January. Count them out.
Don't care...
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -4.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Chiefs +4.5. Going out on a limb: Chiefs win outright 23-20.
Result: Broncos 44-13
If my gut is right and my picking strategy screws me on the painfully inconsistent Broncos, then I really can't be mad. In the grand scheme of things, I could have used the game win, but oh well.
Playing Down to the Competition, Are we?
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -9.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Saints -9.5. New Orleans wins 27-17.
Result: Saints 33-30 (ot)
The Skins should not score 30 points on anyone, let alone a team that is undefeated 12 weeks into the year and has super bowl aspirations. Awful. You should have won, Washington. Too bad Suisham sucks as bad as your offense does.
(redacted-foul language)
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Steelers win 27-10.
Result: Raiders 27-24
There is very little that I can say that would be fit for the eyes of a widespread internet audience. Pittsburgh will not be in the playoffs, despite me picking them to repeat, although I immediately regretted that decision. 3 blown fourth quarter leads. Against the Raiders. By the Steeler D. At home. What the #$%^?
GODDAMMIT...GO THE $%$% AWAY!
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: 0
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Texans (pk). Houston wins easily 30-13.
Result: Jags 23-18
Jacksonville is not good. They have no business in the playoff hunt. The Texans have now lost to them twice, and those are the Jags best 2 wins. And Houston is now under .500, so the Jags are 7-5 without a win over a .500 team. If they make the playoffs, I'll be pissed. Granted it won't be a far jog from ticked off, which is where I currently stand.
Got one...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -6
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Panthers -6. Carolina wins 30-20.
Result: Panthers 16-6
Called Panthers by 10, it happened, so not much more to say. Neither team is going anywhere, and this is the point in the season at which I lose interest in non-contenders.
Another good call...
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -13
O/U: 42
My Pick: Lions +13. Cincy wins 30-20.
Result: Bengals 23-13
Called a 10-point win and it happened again. This one slightly more impressive than the last due to the need to pick the Lions to cover on the road. Amazing that I could have such a poor overall week, yet be so close on the games I did get right.
Score some points, Cutler...
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears -9. Chicago finally puts on a show for the fans, 31-13.
Result: Bears 17-9
For heavens sake, Chicago, it was the Rams Defense! Jerks. Should have had this one.
This one was my fault...
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Titans +6.5. Tennessee Ends the Streak 24-21.
Result: Colts 27-17
I've been high on the Colts all year, and picked them to beat the Pats when few others did. I should not have changed my position. The Colts shouldn't lose again, and if they do, I'll be getting that game wrong. The Titans are now out of the playoff picture (2 teams should be able to get to 10-6), but they did put on a good show.
Dammit Brady...What the Hell?
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Patriots -5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Pats -5. New England rolls 34-13.
Result: Fins 22-21
The Pats scored 21 points in the first 33 minutes...and then stopped? Come on. What is going on lately? They should still win the division, but aren't going far thereafter unless something changes. Unlike typical Pats teams, they are playing very inconsistent.
Late Scores Suck
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Chargers -13
O/U: 43
My Pick: Chargers -13. San Diego rolls 38-9.
Result: Chargers 30-23
I picked the Chargers to roll, and for the most part they did. But Cleveland decided to score 16 points in the 4th, including 9 in the last 2 minutes, to screw those who bet the Chargers. It happens, but it always leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
Way to Blow, 49ers
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: 0
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: 49ers (pk). San Fran wins 23-13.
Result: Seahawks 20-17
The perfect spread for me...all they had to do was win the freaking game against a terrible team. And they didn't. Come ON.
Another solid pick...
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Giants +2.5. New York sweeps the Cowboys with a 20-14 win.
Result: Giants 31-24
Higher scoring than I thought, but I said 6 and the G-men won by 7. Dallas is awful at this time of the year. They'll give the division to the Eagles, but may still claim a wild card (possibly with NY). But I'd bet on them missing the playoffs altogether.
Of Course...
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Vikings roll 34-20.
Result: Cards 30-17
Arizona has stepped up and beaten solid teams all year, but haven't done it at home until now. Of course they waited until I was already going to have a crappy week to show up and win big at home against a really good team. Lovely.
And for good measure...
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins outright 23-17.
Result: Packers 27-14
I know what I've picked, and I know when I really need a Monday Night game to go my way to try to salvage the picks for that week. So this was just icing on the cake. The Ravens O didn't do much, and the Packers D just keeps getting better. I have been waiting for them to falter, but they haven't. All of a sudden, Green Bay looks like a playoff team. And Baltimore will have to start winning if they expect to be one, too.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
NFL Week Thirteen Preview
Thursday, December 3rd:
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (Toronto, ONT)
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
After last week's performances, I hate to pick against my Bills again. But the Jets, no matter how bad I think they are, have something to play for. Not only revenge against the Bills from their last meeting, but a potential playoff spot if New York can really get their act together. I hate to trust a rookie QB, but when his defense is playing against the Bills I expect him to be OK. Even though the Jets are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favorite, I expect them to take care of Buffalo. Trends say the game will be played over, but an anemic Bills O and a decent Jets Pass D say otherwise.
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 17-13.
Sunday, December 6th:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 44
The Eagles offense might sputter a little bit without Desean Jackson, but you can be sure the return game will suffer. Atlanta has a solid core of players, but without Matt Ryan and possibly Michael Turner, it is very unlikely that they will win this game. Even though the Eagles are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Falcons, this game may not be so cut and dry. For one, it is Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. I'm not sure how that fact will affect either team, but it may give Atlanta just a little more motivation. Not that they needed more, as they will likely be out of the playoff hunt with a loss, as next week's game is against New Orleans, and they certainly can't count on winning that one. I expect the defense to step up big, and although I wouldn't be surprised by an Eagles blowout, I have seen them play some really bad games this year (Oak). They may also be thinking it's an "easy" game because the opposing QB and RB are both out, and if they play without heart, they could lose outright.
My Pick: Falcons +5.5. Philly wins, but the Falcons D keeps em close. 20-16.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -4.5
O/U: 38
Denver is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to KC, but they just asserted themselves quite nicely against the Giants and appear to be intent on making a playoff run. KC played pretty bad last week, and I don't know that they can get much going agianst the Denver D, assuming it plays to its potential. I am having trouble reading my gut, but I think it says to go with Denver in a blowout.
My Pick: Chiefs +4.5. Going out on a limb: Chiefs win outright 23-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -9.5
O/U: 47.5
Now we know how the Saints can play when they put their minds to it. But how will they play when they know the other team is awful? It has been somewhat of a crapshoot in that department so far this season. Washington tends to lose close games, and is actually 5-2 ATS as an underdog. Given the Saints' propensity to tone it down against bad teams, I'd say this one could stay relatively close. I do, however, think the Saints will win by 2 scores, which means that a spread of 9.5 just isn't enough for me to go with the underdog.
My Pick: Saints -9.5. New Orleans wins 27-17.
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
There's no spread because the oddsmakers still aren't sure if Big Ben will play. All preliminary reports say he will. And I don't think the Steelers will have much trouble with the Raiders even if Dixon plays QB. They know what they need to do to make the postseason; they'll get it done. My Pick: Steelers win 27-10.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: 0
O/U: 46.5
This is one of the easiest picks I've had all season. The Jags beat the Texans in Houston, scoring a ton of points in the process. The Texans D is better now, and will adjust to fix whatever went wrong last time. Houston has a shot at the playoffs, and they're not going to let it go by the wayside against a crappy team like Jacksonville, against whom they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15. They've also lost 3 games in a row overall, which is very uncharacteristic of the Texans. I expect them to play hard and to win big.
My Pick: Texans (pk). Houston wins easily 30-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -6
O/U: 40.5
I have no idea what to make of the Panthers right now. The Bucs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 visits to Carolina, but if DelHomme starts throwing INTs the Bucs could win outright. Tampa has beaten the spread in 3 of its last 4, and I hesitate to pick against them, but I think the Panthers are due for a big win.
My Pick: Panthers -6. Carolina wins 30-20.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -13
O/U: 42
Detroit hasn't beaten the spread on the road yet this season, but Cincy could be just the place to end that streak. The Bengals have a tendency to play down to their opponents, and the Lions have been solid against AFC North teams (1-1 SU and ATS). The Bengals look like they'll get Benson back this week, which could be an issue for the Lions, but when the Bengals don't have much to play for, they don't seem to do very well. On the face of it, this looks like that sort of game. The worst ATS team in the NFL last year still had 4 ATS wins. Detroit has 2 with only 5 games left. It's time to get crackin'.
My Pick: Lions +13. Cincy wins 30-20.
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -9
O/U: 41
The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Rams, and although St. Louis could be a sleeper pick against a struggling Bears team, I think Cutler will finally snap out of his funk and put up some offense. Their fans need a win, and I don't think they'll take this game lightly at all. If you show up to play hard against the Rams, you'll probably win big. And with Boller in for Bulger and Steven Jackson banged up, this looks like an even safer pick.
My Pick: Bears -9. Chicago finally puts on a show for the fans, 31-13.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 47
I've been dying for the chance to call Indy or New Orleans' first loss. This could be it. The Titans have a ton of confidence, and AFC South games tend to be close, hard-fought battles. As long as Vince Young keeps playing well, I think Tennessee has a real shot. Indy has little to play for other than their unblemished record, and that's not the sort of thing that comes up in practice. No one wants to jinx it, so they just won't talk about it at all. A Titans win would not only legitimize them as a team, but would show the league that a 10-0 finish is very possible. Heck, they're already halfway there.
My Pick: Titans +6.5. Tennessee Ends the Streak 24-21.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Patriots -5
O/U: 46
The Pats are a good football team. No one doubts that. They should win the division easily, but to get the bye, they'll have to win out and get some help from the Chargers. Miami is solid, but no match for Brady and the Pats if they're playing with passion. They will be.
My Pick: Pats -5. New England rolls 34-13.
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Chargers -13
O/U: 43
I think I learned my lesson after last week, although I do still expect a letdown from the Chargers at some point. I don't know that the Browns can stop that Chargers offense, even if they play with no passion at all. And the Chargers D is more than good enough to keep Quinn and the Browns O at bay. Heck, the local middle school's defense could hold down the Cleveland offense. And yes, I'm saying that your average middle school has a better defense than the Detroit Lions.
My Pick: Chargers -13. San Diego rolls 38-9.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: 0
O/U: 41.5
I'm lovin the pick-ems this week! San Fran is the better team, and is playing better right now. Even though Seattle wants revenge for an early-season loss in San Francisco, I think the 49ers have a better chance of coming out on top. If they play with passion, they're good enough to beat a lot of teams (nearly beat MIN!). With an outside shot at the playoffs to keep them interested, the 49ers should get it done.
My Pick: 49ers (pk). San Fran wins 23-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
Dallas still can't get the offense to click, and the Giants need a win badly. Not that they needed any more reason to be amped up for a visit from the Cowboys. That defense has to feel ashamed at the way they've been performing, and this is just the chance for them to step up and win the Giants a football game.
My Pick: Giants +2.5. New York sweeps the Cowboys with a 20-14 win.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
This line isn't in yet because of the uncertainty surrounding Kurt Warner. I don't think it will matter. Minnesota is very good, and every time they get a huge lead it gives them a chance to rest Favre. So they love to get out to fast starts. Arizona has been worse at home than on the road, and is only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Vikings. Warner or No Warner, it'll be a tough night in the desert.
My Pick: Vikings roll 34-20.
Monday, December 7th:
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43.5
Both of these teams need wins as they strive for wild card spots, so I would expect both to play exceptionally hard, especially under the lights at Lambeau on a Monday Night. The problem for the Packers is that their only solid win is over the Cowboys, and Dallas just couldn't get any offense going in that game. Their other 6 wins are over teams below .500 (most of them WELL below .500). Baltimore is not one of those teams. The Ravens D will be swarming, and the Packers' inconsistent offensive line will have trouble protecting Rodgers. The Ravens O hasn't been great lately, but I think they'll do enough to keep this team moving toward a wild card spot.
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins outright 23-17.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (Toronto, ONT)
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
After last week's performances, I hate to pick against my Bills again. But the Jets, no matter how bad I think they are, have something to play for. Not only revenge against the Bills from their last meeting, but a potential playoff spot if New York can really get their act together. I hate to trust a rookie QB, but when his defense is playing against the Bills I expect him to be OK. Even though the Jets are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favorite, I expect them to take care of Buffalo. Trends say the game will be played over, but an anemic Bills O and a decent Jets Pass D say otherwise.
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 17-13.
Sunday, December 6th:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 44
The Eagles offense might sputter a little bit without Desean Jackson, but you can be sure the return game will suffer. Atlanta has a solid core of players, but without Matt Ryan and possibly Michael Turner, it is very unlikely that they will win this game. Even though the Eagles are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Falcons, this game may not be so cut and dry. For one, it is Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. I'm not sure how that fact will affect either team, but it may give Atlanta just a little more motivation. Not that they needed more, as they will likely be out of the playoff hunt with a loss, as next week's game is against New Orleans, and they certainly can't count on winning that one. I expect the defense to step up big, and although I wouldn't be surprised by an Eagles blowout, I have seen them play some really bad games this year (Oak). They may also be thinking it's an "easy" game because the opposing QB and RB are both out, and if they play without heart, they could lose outright.
My Pick: Falcons +5.5. Philly wins, but the Falcons D keeps em close. 20-16.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -4.5
O/U: 38
Denver is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to KC, but they just asserted themselves quite nicely against the Giants and appear to be intent on making a playoff run. KC played pretty bad last week, and I don't know that they can get much going agianst the Denver D, assuming it plays to its potential. I am having trouble reading my gut, but I think it says to go with Denver in a blowout.
My Pick: Chiefs +4.5. Going out on a limb: Chiefs win outright 23-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -9.5
O/U: 47.5
Now we know how the Saints can play when they put their minds to it. But how will they play when they know the other team is awful? It has been somewhat of a crapshoot in that department so far this season. Washington tends to lose close games, and is actually 5-2 ATS as an underdog. Given the Saints' propensity to tone it down against bad teams, I'd say this one could stay relatively close. I do, however, think the Saints will win by 2 scores, which means that a spread of 9.5 just isn't enough for me to go with the underdog.
My Pick: Saints -9.5. New Orleans wins 27-17.
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
There's no spread because the oddsmakers still aren't sure if Big Ben will play. All preliminary reports say he will. And I don't think the Steelers will have much trouble with the Raiders even if Dixon plays QB. They know what they need to do to make the postseason; they'll get it done. My Pick: Steelers win 27-10.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: 0
O/U: 46.5
This is one of the easiest picks I've had all season. The Jags beat the Texans in Houston, scoring a ton of points in the process. The Texans D is better now, and will adjust to fix whatever went wrong last time. Houston has a shot at the playoffs, and they're not going to let it go by the wayside against a crappy team like Jacksonville, against whom they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15. They've also lost 3 games in a row overall, which is very uncharacteristic of the Texans. I expect them to play hard and to win big.
My Pick: Texans (pk). Houston wins easily 30-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -6
O/U: 40.5
I have no idea what to make of the Panthers right now. The Bucs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 visits to Carolina, but if DelHomme starts throwing INTs the Bucs could win outright. Tampa has beaten the spread in 3 of its last 4, and I hesitate to pick against them, but I think the Panthers are due for a big win.
My Pick: Panthers -6. Carolina wins 30-20.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -13
O/U: 42
Detroit hasn't beaten the spread on the road yet this season, but Cincy could be just the place to end that streak. The Bengals have a tendency to play down to their opponents, and the Lions have been solid against AFC North teams (1-1 SU and ATS). The Bengals look like they'll get Benson back this week, which could be an issue for the Lions, but when the Bengals don't have much to play for, they don't seem to do very well. On the face of it, this looks like that sort of game. The worst ATS team in the NFL last year still had 4 ATS wins. Detroit has 2 with only 5 games left. It's time to get crackin'.
My Pick: Lions +13. Cincy wins 30-20.
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -9
O/U: 41
The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Rams, and although St. Louis could be a sleeper pick against a struggling Bears team, I think Cutler will finally snap out of his funk and put up some offense. Their fans need a win, and I don't think they'll take this game lightly at all. If you show up to play hard against the Rams, you'll probably win big. And with Boller in for Bulger and Steven Jackson banged up, this looks like an even safer pick.
My Pick: Bears -9. Chicago finally puts on a show for the fans, 31-13.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 47
I've been dying for the chance to call Indy or New Orleans' first loss. This could be it. The Titans have a ton of confidence, and AFC South games tend to be close, hard-fought battles. As long as Vince Young keeps playing well, I think Tennessee has a real shot. Indy has little to play for other than their unblemished record, and that's not the sort of thing that comes up in practice. No one wants to jinx it, so they just won't talk about it at all. A Titans win would not only legitimize them as a team, but would show the league that a 10-0 finish is very possible. Heck, they're already halfway there.
My Pick: Titans +6.5. Tennessee Ends the Streak 24-21.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Patriots -5
O/U: 46
The Pats are a good football team. No one doubts that. They should win the division easily, but to get the bye, they'll have to win out and get some help from the Chargers. Miami is solid, but no match for Brady and the Pats if they're playing with passion. They will be.
My Pick: Pats -5. New England rolls 34-13.
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Chargers -13
O/U: 43
I think I learned my lesson after last week, although I do still expect a letdown from the Chargers at some point. I don't know that the Browns can stop that Chargers offense, even if they play with no passion at all. And the Chargers D is more than good enough to keep Quinn and the Browns O at bay. Heck, the local middle school's defense could hold down the Cleveland offense. And yes, I'm saying that your average middle school has a better defense than the Detroit Lions.
My Pick: Chargers -13. San Diego rolls 38-9.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: 0
O/U: 41.5
I'm lovin the pick-ems this week! San Fran is the better team, and is playing better right now. Even though Seattle wants revenge for an early-season loss in San Francisco, I think the 49ers have a better chance of coming out on top. If they play with passion, they're good enough to beat a lot of teams (nearly beat MIN!). With an outside shot at the playoffs to keep them interested, the 49ers should get it done.
My Pick: 49ers (pk). San Fran wins 23-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
Dallas still can't get the offense to click, and the Giants need a win badly. Not that they needed any more reason to be amped up for a visit from the Cowboys. That defense has to feel ashamed at the way they've been performing, and this is just the chance for them to step up and win the Giants a football game.
My Pick: Giants +2.5. New York sweeps the Cowboys with a 20-14 win.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
This line isn't in yet because of the uncertainty surrounding Kurt Warner. I don't think it will matter. Minnesota is very good, and every time they get a huge lead it gives them a chance to rest Favre. So they love to get out to fast starts. Arizona has been worse at home than on the road, and is only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Vikings. Warner or No Warner, it'll be a tough night in the desert.
My Pick: Vikings roll 34-20.
Monday, December 7th:
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43.5
Both of these teams need wins as they strive for wild card spots, so I would expect both to play exceptionally hard, especially under the lights at Lambeau on a Monday Night. The problem for the Packers is that their only solid win is over the Cowboys, and Dallas just couldn't get any offense going in that game. Their other 6 wins are over teams below .500 (most of them WELL below .500). Baltimore is not one of those teams. The Ravens D will be swarming, and the Packers' inconsistent offensive line will have trouble protecting Rodgers. The Ravens O hasn't been great lately, but I think they'll do enough to keep this team moving toward a wild card spot.
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins outright 23-17.
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