NFL Week Sixteen Preview

Friday, December 25th:

San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
I guess the oddsmakers factor in heart! San Diego has been unstoppable, and still has something to play for as the #2 seed isn't quite sewn up yet. I was going to pick the Titans, but the fact that San Diego is the underdog in this game is enough to change my mind. I know Tennessee has had a magical run, but it has to end sometime. It would be awfully cruel for them to win out and miss the playoffs on tiebreakers...which is why I think they'll lose.
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.

Sunday, December 27th:

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
Buffalo is not the type of team that frequently gets blown out. They did get beat soundly by New Orleans and Miami earlier in the year, but the lopsided losses to Tennessee and Houston were close games most of the way and were broken open late. With Ryan and Turner in there, Atlanta should win. And despite being out of the playoff race, they very well may want to put on a show for the home fans. Edwards is done, so the Bills O has to rely on Fitzpatrick. Which means 10 points. So do I think the Falcons can put up 20? I'd say no due to Ryan's shaky play since his return (he was making some bad throws last week), but with Jairus Bird (the ballhawk!) and McGee out of the Bills lineup, I don't see them picking off many passes. And the run D has been bad all year (worst in the NFL).
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
Seattle has given up, and the Packers need to keep winning to get themselves into the postseason. This has all the makings of a blowout.
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
Both teams has a ton to play for, and I expect this to be a somewhat competitive game. I'm just worried that the Pats may finally find their rhythm at home and crush the Jags. Jacksonville needs to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but can they pull it off in New England?
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
New York has to win out, and I wouldn't put that concept past a team with the capability the Giants have. Their defense was outstanding for most of the game against Washington, and I'd expect more of the same this week. DelHomme is done, and Moore has played in enough games now that defenses should be able to figure him out a little better. Like Josh Freeman in Tampa, I expect his usefulness to decrease as opposing defenses get to see more film on him. Also of note, most other teams with no playoff hopes have had a bad, apathetic week already...it's Carolina's turn.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
I think Polamalu makes all the difference in this one. It will be a smashmouth style game, and the Steelers D needs all of its leaders on the field to combat the intensity that will be coming from the other sideline. He is unlikely to play as of right now, but I'm going to pick the Steelers anyway. The Ravens' O has been inconsistent, and could have a bad week against Pittsburgh. Plus a Steelers win keeps them in the playoff hunt, and a Baltimore loss opens things up a bit more in the AFC and makes week 17 that much more interesting.
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
Tampa's bad, New Orleans is good. And after all the craziness that New Orleans has been through with the pursuit of perfection, it would be crazy to think that they would be any less than the 1-seed in the NFC. If they win this game, they'll lock it up, so I expect them to play hard enough to get the home blowout.
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
This is a do-or-die game for both teams. The loser is done, the winner still has a shot. So expect a ton of intensity on both sides. For some reason, the Texans have really fallen off lately, and were barely able to beat the Rams this past week despite still having an outside shot at a playoff berth. Each team has beaten only one playoff-bound team all year, but I think Miami's defense and consistent play gives them an edge over the slumping Texans.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
Quinn is out, but does that really matter when the opposing QB is Charlie Frye? Oakland has beaten some good teams thus far, and is clearly the best of the worst. But they haven't pulled off back-to-back solid outings all year. It almost seems like they need to be embarassed for them to get angry enough to play a good game the following week. After a win over Denver, I expect a letdown. It also seems as though most of the NFL's crappy teams find a way to get 4 wins by the end of the year, and this is a golden opportunity for the Browns to get #4.
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
The Bengals have had some letdowns against lesser opposition this year, but as they are still on an emotional roller coaster following the funeral of Chris Henry, I don't think there will be a letdown this week. It's their first home game since Henry's death, and there will be a buzz in the air. The Benglas should put on a show. Not to mention they're still fighting for a playoff spot, as the Ravens can still catch them.
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
The Cardinals are already in the playoffs, but have been playing poorly the last few weeks. St. Louis really seemed to have some solid intensity last week, but will they phone it in once they get to Arizona? The Cards couldn't beat the spread in St. Louis, and unless the Rams don't show up, I think they'll have trouble beating it again.
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
I certainly don't think the 49ers will give up, as Singletary will kill them all if they do, but 12 points is an awful lot to cover when there's nothing on the line. Detroit is starting Stanton, though, so offense might be tough to come by. I just can't give a team with nothing to play for 12 points.
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
So how long will Manning play? That's the real question here. I say he plays a half, just to stay in rhythm will all of his receivers. One hald of Manning is about 24 points on the scoreboard. The Jets won't score that many all game, especially with the Indy defense pumped up to go after that 16-0 record.
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.

Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
I don't think the Eagles' long ball offense will have much success against the solid Broncos secondary. Both teams need wins...Denver to make the playoffs, Philly to push toward a possible bye week. Both will be playing hard, and I think Philly is the better team. Not that it necessarily means anything in today's parity-laden NFL.
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
All the analysts are convinced that after Washington's embarassing effort last week they'll come back ready to play this week. I'm not so sure. After all, they are a bad team with nothing to play for going up against a mediocre team with everything to play for. If the Cowboys lose, they are more than likely going to miss the playoffs. So I don't expect them to take this game lightly. They couldn't beat the spread against the Skins at home, but I think they'll have better luck in Washington.
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.

Monday, December 28th:

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
Minnesota is still fighting for a bye week in the NFC playoffs, and really needs one, as their quarterback is quite old and could use the rest. Favre is out to prove that his tiff with Childress meant nothing, and the Vikings are out to show the world that they deserve that #2 seed. Chicago will struggle against a very good Viking D, and I'll bet AP has a good week after all the talk that the Vikings' slump is mostly due to an ineffective run game.
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.