NFL Week Thirteen Preview

Thursday, December 3rd:

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (Toronto, ONT)
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
After last week's performances, I hate to pick against my Bills again. But the Jets, no matter how bad I think they are, have something to play for. Not only revenge against the Bills from their last meeting, but a potential playoff spot if New York can really get their act together. I hate to trust a rookie QB, but when his defense is playing against the Bills I expect him to be OK. Even though the Jets are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favorite, I expect them to take care of Buffalo. Trends say the game will be played over, but an anemic Bills O and a decent Jets Pass D say otherwise.
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 17-13.

Sunday, December 6th:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 44
The Eagles offense might sputter a little bit without Desean Jackson, but you can be sure the return game will suffer. Atlanta has a solid core of players, but without Matt Ryan and possibly Michael Turner, it is very unlikely that they will win this game. Even though the Eagles are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Falcons, this game may not be so cut and dry. For one, it is Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. I'm not sure how that fact will affect either team, but it may give Atlanta just a little more motivation. Not that they needed more, as they will likely be out of the playoff hunt with a loss, as next week's game is against New Orleans, and they certainly can't count on winning that one. I expect the defense to step up big, and although I wouldn't be surprised by an Eagles blowout, I have seen them play some really bad games this year (Oak). They may also be thinking it's an "easy" game because the opposing QB and RB are both out, and if they play without heart, they could lose outright.
My Pick: Falcons +5.5. Philly wins, but the Falcons D keeps em close. 20-16.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -4.5
O/U: 38
Denver is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to KC, but they just asserted themselves quite nicely against the Giants and appear to be intent on making a playoff run. KC played pretty bad last week, and I don't know that they can get much going agianst the Denver D, assuming it plays to its potential. I am having trouble reading my gut, but I think it says to go with Denver in a blowout.
My Pick: Chiefs +4.5. Going out on a limb: Chiefs win outright 23-20.

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -9.5
O/U: 47.5
Now we know how the Saints can play when they put their minds to it. But how will they play when they know the other team is awful? It has been somewhat of a crapshoot in that department so far this season. Washington tends to lose close games, and is actually 5-2 ATS as an underdog. Given the Saints' propensity to tone it down against bad teams, I'd say this one could stay relatively close. I do, however, think the Saints will win by 2 scores, which means that a spread of 9.5 just isn't enough for me to go with the underdog.
My Pick: Saints -9.5. New Orleans wins 27-17.

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
There's no spread because the oddsmakers still aren't sure if Big Ben will play. All preliminary reports say he will. And I don't think the Steelers will have much trouble with the Raiders even if Dixon plays QB. They know what they need to do to make the postseason; they'll get it done. My Pick: Steelers win 27-10.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: 0
O/U: 46.5
This is one of the easiest picks I've had all season. The Jags beat the Texans in Houston, scoring a ton of points in the process. The Texans D is better now, and will adjust to fix whatever went wrong last time. Houston has a shot at the playoffs, and they're not going to let it go by the wayside against a crappy team like Jacksonville, against whom they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15. They've also lost 3 games in a row overall, which is very uncharacteristic of the Texans. I expect them to play hard and to win big.
My Pick: Texans (pk). Houston wins easily 30-13.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -6
O/U: 40.5
I have no idea what to make of the Panthers right now. The Bucs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 visits to Carolina, but if DelHomme starts throwing INTs the Bucs could win outright. Tampa has beaten the spread in 3 of its last 4, and I hesitate to pick against them, but I think the Panthers are due for a big win.
My Pick: Panthers -6. Carolina wins 30-20.

Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -13
O/U: 42
Detroit hasn't beaten the spread on the road yet this season, but Cincy could be just the place to end that streak. The Bengals have a tendency to play down to their opponents, and the Lions have been solid against AFC North teams (1-1 SU and ATS). The Bengals look like they'll get Benson back this week, which could be an issue for the Lions, but when the Bengals don't have much to play for, they don't seem to do very well. On the face of it, this looks like that sort of game. The worst ATS team in the NFL last year still had 4 ATS wins. Detroit has 2 with only 5 games left. It's time to get crackin'.
My Pick: Lions +13. Cincy wins 30-20.

St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -9
O/U: 41
The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Rams, and although St. Louis could be a sleeper pick against a struggling Bears team, I think Cutler will finally snap out of his funk and put up some offense. Their fans need a win, and I don't think they'll take this game lightly at all. If you show up to play hard against the Rams, you'll probably win big. And with Boller in for Bulger and Steven Jackson banged up, this looks like an even safer pick.
My Pick: Bears -9. Chicago finally puts on a show for the fans, 31-13.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 47
I've been dying for the chance to call Indy or New Orleans' first loss. This could be it. The Titans have a ton of confidence, and AFC South games tend to be close, hard-fought battles. As long as Vince Young keeps playing well, I think Tennessee has a real shot. Indy has little to play for other than their unblemished record, and that's not the sort of thing that comes up in practice. No one wants to jinx it, so they just won't talk about it at all. A Titans win would not only legitimize them as a team, but would show the league that a 10-0 finish is very possible. Heck, they're already halfway there.
My Pick: Titans +6.5. Tennessee Ends the Streak 24-21.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Patriots -5
O/U: 46
The Pats are a good football team. No one doubts that. They should win the division easily, but to get the bye, they'll have to win out and get some help from the Chargers. Miami is solid, but no match for Brady and the Pats if they're playing with passion. They will be.
My Pick: Pats -5. New England rolls 34-13.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Chargers -13
O/U: 43
I think I learned my lesson after last week, although I do still expect a letdown from the Chargers at some point. I don't know that the Browns can stop that Chargers offense, even if they play with no passion at all. And the Chargers D is more than good enough to keep Quinn and the Browns O at bay. Heck, the local middle school's defense could hold down the Cleveland offense. And yes, I'm saying that your average middle school has a better defense than the Detroit Lions.
My Pick: Chargers -13. San Diego rolls 38-9.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: 0
O/U: 41.5
I'm lovin the pick-ems this week! San Fran is the better team, and is playing better right now. Even though Seattle wants revenge for an early-season loss in San Francisco, I think the 49ers have a better chance of coming out on top. If they play with passion, they're good enough to beat a lot of teams (nearly beat MIN!). With an outside shot at the playoffs to keep them interested, the 49ers should get it done.
My Pick: 49ers (pk). San Fran wins 23-13.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
Dallas still can't get the offense to click, and the Giants need a win badly. Not that they needed any more reason to be amped up for a visit from the Cowboys. That defense has to feel ashamed at the way they've been performing, and this is just the chance for them to step up and win the Giants a football game.
My Pick: Giants +2.5. New York sweeps the Cowboys with a 20-14 win.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
This line isn't in yet because of the uncertainty surrounding Kurt Warner. I don't think it will matter. Minnesota is very good, and every time they get a huge lead it gives them a chance to rest Favre. So they love to get out to fast starts. Arizona has been worse at home than on the road, and is only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Vikings. Warner or No Warner, it'll be a tough night in the desert.
My Pick: Vikings roll 34-20.

Monday, December 7th:

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43.5
Both of these teams need wins as they strive for wild card spots, so I would expect both to play exceptionally hard, especially under the lights at Lambeau on a Monday Night. The problem for the Packers is that their only solid win is over the Cowboys, and Dallas just couldn't get any offense going in that game. Their other 6 wins are over teams below .500 (most of them WELL below .500). Baltimore is not one of those teams. The Ravens D will be swarming, and the Packers' inconsistent offensive line will have trouble protecting Rodgers. The Ravens O hasn't been great lately, but I think they'll do enough to keep this team moving toward a wild card spot.
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins outright 23-17.