NFL Week Fourteen Recap

Overall SU: 138-70 (13-3 wk 14)
Week 14 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 101-105-2

Done
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 33
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh wins 13-0.
Result: Browns 13-6
The Steelers are done. Unbelievable. How they came out with no intensity in a must win game against a crappy team baffles me. Guess Polamalu is the only player in the locker room with the ability to fire his team up.

Almost. Again.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 38-23.
Result: Saints 26-23
Once again New Orleans tried its best to lose to a "bad' team, but it just didn't happen. Atlanta is very good with Turner and Ryan, but without them, they are mediocre. Consider how badly the Eagles beat them last week in Atlanta and you will understand exactly why, despite their ups and downs, I chose the Saints to crush them. New Orleans will be going for the undefeated season, and if they actually TRY to win the last 3 games, they will. Homefield, bye, the works. Atlanta is done, despite a great start to the year. I expect them to come out strong next year and be a definite playoff team.

Figured
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -6
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 34-21.
Result: Texans 34-7
As I suspected, the Seahawks are a crummy, underachieving team that has already packed it in. Houston still sees themselves as having a shot at the playoffs. They absolutely must win out, and their schedule is about the same as the Titans', who need to win out as well. An easy one next week at STL, a middle-of-the-road game @ MIA, who may or may not still have a playoff shot by then, and a tough one at home against NE to close out the year, which may be do-able the way the Pats have played on the road this season. I'll leave off contingencies and tiebreakers for now. Step one is for them to win out. If they get the next two, we'll see what the AFC picture looks like. It is still possible that 9-7 won't be good enough.

In the Hunt
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 24-10.
Result: Dolphins 14-10
These teams both sit at 7-6, and would be all-but assured of a playoff spot with 3 more wins. If Miami can come through next week in Tennessee, they'll drop one if their potential contenders at 9-7 (Titans would no longer have a shot), and may be able to lose one more and still get in. @HOU in week 16 is also a tough game, as Houston will still have a shot at 9-7 at that point. Miami finishes off at home against the Steelers, which used to look like a tough game, but who knows what will happen at this point. My guess is that they'll lose to a resurgent Titans team and then beat Houston, at which point I will look at all the tiebreaker stuff that could happen if they beat the Steelers and go 9-7. The Jags host Indy, which should be a loss even against backups, and then travel to New England, where they will finally fall out of the playoff picture. They should beat the Browns in week 17 to finish 8-8.

Why do I Bother?
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6
O/U: 43
My Pick: Bengals +6. Minnesota still wins 24-20.
Result: Vikings 30-10
I loved the idea that Cincy had played all of its toughest opponents close, and really thought they'd be in this game. I guess I forgot how good the Vikings are in comparison to everyone else the Bengals have beaten. Those Steelers wins aren't looking as impressive anymore. Minnesota will likely win @CAR this week and then start resting Favre, which means anything can happen @Chi and at home to a New York Giants team that will likely need to win to make the postseason. But I expect them to have the Bye locked up long before then. Cincy has a 2-game lead in the division (3 if you consider that they have all the tiebreakers locked up), and has at least one more win on their schedule. @SD this week will be tough, but I think they will play with a chip on their shoulder, as they want to prove that they're good enough to compete for the AFC's spot in the Super Bowl; that will require them to go through either Indy or San Diego. They host KC in week 16 (easy win), and then wrap up the year @ NYJ, which should be a win, but who knows what the Jets will be playing for at that point. Cincy could have the North clinched with no chance at a bye and the Jets could be playing for a playoff berth. If so, New York may win on emotion alone, as we've seen that the Bengals are more like kittens when they aren't emotionally involved in the game.

What are the Pats?
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -13.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Patriots -13.5. New England makes a statement, 42-17.
Result: Pats 20-10
New England has become very human. I'm not sure what to make of this team that just a few weeks ago had the Colts on the ropes, and now can't even solidly beat a crappy Panthers team in their own stadium. Luckily for them they end with 3 "patsies" and should win the East at 11-5. Buffalo gave them a run earlier in the year, but with nothing to play for, I'm not sure they can compete again. Jacksonville has no shot at Foxboro, and if anything is still on the line, they should handle the Texans in Houston. No tiebreakers needed. Unless they crap the bed. In which case I'll break out the contingencies.

Still Trying
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins with defense, 16-7.
Result: Jets 26-3
After a 3-0 start, the Jets were a playoff shoe-in. Now, not so much. After struggling against some bad teams, the Jets quickly fell back down to earth. We'll see when Sanchez plays again, although I'm not sure Clemens gives them much different of an offensive prognosis. The Jets have a tough end to their season, and need to win out to guarantee themselves a spot. Atlanta will be no pushover this week, but as they are out of the playoff hunt, it may be a winnable game. Then the Jets have to go to Indy...Ouch. The Colts won't be using starters at that point, though, so maybe New York can get lucky. So let's say they can get to 9-6...then they host Cincy. Ouch again. Cincy should have the North wrapped up by then, and may not play starters, but who knows? If the Jets make the playoffs, I'd venture to guess that it will be a very soft 10-6 or 9-7 and that their last two opponents basically handed them wins. Which really stinks for all the teams competing against New York. My guess, however, is that they will win only one of those games, go 8-8, and have the entire city of New York all pissed off. But when the season began, 8-8 would have been good...the Jets weren't supposed to go anywhere.

How to almost give it away...
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: 0
O/U: 37
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo wins in a hostile environment 17-13.
Result: Bills 16-10
So you're trying to run clock with very little time left and a 6 point lead. Second down and 6, 2:05 on the clock. Why would you run up the middle? The clock is going to stop anyway. Throw the ball and see if you can get the first down. If Buffalo gets the first, the game is over. Instead they ran it twice and gave Cassel and the Chiefs a shot at a score. They completed a few passes over the middle, wasted a ton of time, couldn't hit the hail mary, and Buffalo won anyway. But you see my point. Buffalo doesn't play to win, they play not to lose. Which is why the league's longest active playoff drought will continue.

The Strategy Ain't Workin
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Broncos +7. Indy still wins 23-20.
Result: Colts 28-16
My gut would have been right, but my strategy got in the way. Again. I may need to scrap it next week. The Colts have everything wrapped up and are going to rest people. I think that will negatively impact their Super Bowl hopes, as everyone will lose the chemistry they have worked all season to attain. I expect a 15-1 final record from Indy, but am not sure which "patsy" will beat them. My guess is the @BUF game will be the one, as the Bills will finally have something to play for...to be the team that stopped "the streak". Denver can make the playoffs somewhat easily if they resist the urge to be dumbasses. They get Oakland and KC at home in weeks 15 and 17, respectively. They may get beaten in Philly in week 16, as the Eagles will still be playing hard trying to win the east, but 10-6 should be good enough for a playoff spot. And with a great secondary (and Dawkins' return to Philly), I probably shouldn't count Denver out of the Eagles game just yet.

Smashed
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore wins big 34-14.
Result: Ravens 48-3
As bad as the Lions have been, this was their worst loss in years (I forgot the year...suffice to say it was before their recent woes). Baltimore wanted to prove a point. And they did. I expect them to finish strong and go 10-6 unless the Steelers get in their way for presumably no reason. Chicago and Oakland should be wins for a team that has lost to only very good teams. Their worst loss? In Foxboro to the 8-5 Pats. Seriously. Even with 6 losses, every other one was to a team that now has at least 9 wins. Chicago and Oakland don't have 8 or 9 wins. So Baltimore ought to handle them. And if the Ravens do get into the playoffs, which I expect them to, their tough schedule will have them well prepared for battle, and I could see them surprising a team or two. I honestly think they have the personnel and talent, if everyone's healthy, to win the AFC.

Packer Surge
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 41
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins in Chicago 24-16.
Result: Packers 21-14
After the two losses to Minnesota, I really thought the Packers were in trouble. Then the loss to Tampa appeared to seal their fate. Or at least it would have had they not won every game since. Their defense is #2 in the league, and we all know Rodgers can throw the rock. I just don't think they can get past an elite team like the Vikings or Saints. Their losses have been to good teams, but their only wins over playoff contenders were Dallas and Baltimore, and both were at home. They will probably have a chance to prove themselves, though, as they seem like a playoff lock.

Don't care
Washington Redskins @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Redskins -1
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Redskins -1. Washington wins 13-10.
Result: Redskins 34-13
Finally some points for the Redskins. God these teams suck.

Bad Pick
St. Louis Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -13
O/U: 41
My Pick: Rams +13. Titans still win 24-13.
Result: Titans 47-7
I kinda thought that a tough, determined Titans team would crush a crappy Rams team that had long since given up, but couldn't bring myself to pick it because the spread was so large. They seem to have covered it just fine. Hindsight is 20/20. Tennessee must win out, but given the schedules and likely scenarios in the AFC, 9-7 still may not be good enough. And I'm not sure they will beat San Diego anyway, unless they are resting starters. Might as well give it a shot, though. After week 15 I'll figure out some extra contingencies and tiebreakers and figure out exactly what must happen for Tennessee to get in. But first they must beat a Dolphins team that is also looking for a playoff berth.

Knew It
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Chargers +2.5. San Diego wins outright 24-23.
Result: Chargers 20-17
San Diego has been unstoppable, and I didn't think the Cowboys would be the team to end the streak. They are just awful in December. San Diego is easily in, and may even begin resting starters as soon as they officially lock up the bye week, which could happen if they beat Cincy this week. Dallas may not make it. They are clearly in running only for the wild card, as I believe they've already given up the division to Philly, unless a win in week 17 ties the teams and Dallas wins the tiebreaker on head-to-head record, which would be the case. The most likely scenario is that Philly will finish 11-5 and Dallas will finish 10-6, which will be tough anyway, as they'll have to beat either the Saints or Eagles to get there. Assume a 10-6 record...If the Giants win out (possible if Minny is resting starters in week 17), they'd win the tiebreaker with Dallas on head to head, and the Boys would be out. My prediction is that Green Bay is a lock, New York is out, and Dallas sneaks in at 10-6 or 9-7. Atlanta or San Fran would have to win out to get to 9-7 and make a tiebreaker necessary, and I highly doubt those scenarios. There just aren't enough teams with decent records to challenge Dallas, so they'll sneak in on early season success. And then bow out in round one. Hopefully to Arizona, because I would find that funny.

Flying High
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -1
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Giants -1. They need it more. New York wins 23-16.
Result: Eagles 45-38
This game was so good that it reminded me why I love the sport of football. So much back-and-forth action, tons of scoring...just a fabulous game by both teams. Unfortunately the Giants D (and special teams) had no answer for Desean Jackson, and the Eagles hit enough big plays to win it. That may be the final nail in the Giants' coffin, as they'll likely need to win out now just to have a shot. And with Minnesota still left on the schedule, winning out is going to be tough.

Seven
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Cardinals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Cardinals -3.5. Arizona wins 31-10.
Result: 49ers 24-9
Seven turnovers? Geez. They really didn't want to wrap up the division, did they? With Detroit and St. Louis left on the schedule, I see why the Cards weren't all that worried about the loss. They'll win the division easily. San Fran needs to win out and get help to have a shot at a playoff berth at 9-7, but will have to win in Philly this week to have any chance. If they do, though, they finish with STL and DET, so it could happen. But they'd also need Dallas to lose two more games (not unrealistic...). If it happens, the 49ers would get the tiebreaker on conference W/L, as their 3 wins would make them 8-4 in the NFC while Dallas' 1-2 stretch would drop them to 7-5.