Sunday, November 1st:
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 41.5
The Ravens are a very good 3-3 football team, and coming off their bye week should be prepared for anything the Broncos can throw at them. Another loss may put them out of the hunt for the AFC North, and they know it. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS following their last 7 byes, and Denver is only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Baltimore. Everything points toward a Ravens win, so I'll continue picking against my gut and take the Broncos.
My Pick: Broncos +3. Baltimore wins anyway 17-16.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9-5
O/U: 46
Dallas stepped up big last week, but does that mean they'll blow out Seattle? Seattle is only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against Dallas, but the telling trend is that they're 1-9 ATS their past 10 games after a bye. So for whatever reason the extra week off doesn't help the Seahawks. For that reason, I'll take the points, but am still concerned that it could be a closer game than 10.
My pick: Cowboys -9.5. Dallas wins 31-21.
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
No line means that I'll assume the line is "pickem", and if a spread comes out before the game is played, I will apply that line to my final score prediction to determine whether or not I was right. The Lions are 6-3 ATS their last 9 against the Rams, and Detroit's one win in the last 2 years was at home against a team that couldn't muster any offense. The Rams have been shut out twice. Even without Stafford I am tempted to pick the Lions, and he has practiced this week, so I think he'll play. The problem is that it is unlikely that anyone will go 0-16 again, and this the best shot the Rams will have to get a win.
My Pick: Rams win it 24-20.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3.5
O/U: 40.5
Common sense suggests that I take the Dolphins again; the Jets couldn't stop the run the first time around, and now without Kris Jenkins in the middle, the Jets will be even worse against Ronnie and Ricky. The problem is that the Jets are pissed they lost the first time, and feel that they have something to prove. New York is at home and Rex Ryan: Defensive Genius has had plenty of time to figure out how to stop the wildcat. Prior to this season, the Fins had very little success against the Jets, beating the spread in only 3 of 20 meetings. Will they fall back into the status quo? My gut tells me that the Fins will run all over the Jets again, but my brain tells me that Rex Ryan's team will have an answer for it this time.
My Pick: Jets -3.5. New York wins 26-20.
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -12.5
O/U: 44
Despite San Fran's poor showing in their last 2 games, I still consider them to be an above-average team despite having a below-average quarterback. Meaning that 12.5 is a LOT of points to give to their opponent, no matter how good they are. San Fran went down 21 last week and still managed a push against a 3 point spread when it was all said and done. They are well-coached, tough, and are the one team in the NFL that will never give up. For that reason, I think they'll keep it a little closer than 13. Plus the Colts are only 6-14 ATS in their last 20 against the NFC West.
My Pick: 49ers +12.5. Too many points. Indy wins 28-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -13
O/U: 40
Are they nuts? After the way the Bears have played the last two weeks, 13 is way too big of a spread, even against the Browns. I think the Urlacher injury is finally catching up to that defense, and the offense just isn't good enough to score a ton of points. I expect the Bears to avenge their recent woes by beating the Browns, but not in a blowout. Plus the Browns have somehow covered 5 straight November road games.
My Pick: Browns +13. Chicago wins 21-10.
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Bills have had some success as of late, but I prefer to call it luck. At 3-4, they're not out of the running yet, and may be feeling confident. The Texans are legitimately solid, though, and I don't see how they'd lose this game. Even with the Bills' pass defense among the best in the league, I don't think they have the speed to keep up with Houston. Until Trent gets back, I'm going against the Bills every week. Why? Because Harvard Sucks.
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston picks up the road win 27-13.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: 0
O/U: 44
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Philly and are looking for redemption after losing in consecutive weeks. Philly looked OK against the Skins, but I'm not sure if they're still the team that lost to the Raiders or if they've gotten over that sloppiness. And I'm sure New York is still pissed about Philly knocking them out of last year's postseason. Revenge is a dish best served cold...and it should be quite cold in Philly on Sunday! Fox will have this game at 1 and the World Series game, also from Philly, at 8. Throw Brett's return to Green Bay in between, and you've got one hell of a sports day.
My Pick: Giants +0. New York wins, but it's never easy in Philly. 23-21.
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -16.5
O/U: 41.5
Another crazy line as Vegas over-reacts to last week's blowouts. This time, however, I think they'll be ok. Oakland is awful, and has been even worse on the road. Last week the Chargers made a statement by blowing out the Chiefs. I don't think they've fully gotten their point across yet...better blow out the Raiders, too. Oakland is only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 against San Diego, although one of the ATS wins was this year.
My Pick: Chargers -16.5. San Diego rolls again 33-10.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
This is almost the same Titans team that won 13 games last year, but they can't seem to pull themselves off the mat. Fisher's appearance in a Manning jersey could spark the team, or it could create dirision and cause them to become even worse. I think it'll be a spark, though I don't necessarily agree with the gesture. Tennessee has lost every game they've played, but I'll bet none hurts worse than losing badly to the Jags. Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips to Tennessee. This has to be a pride game, and if they play with intensity, I don't see any reason why the Titans won't get their first win.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee gets off the shnide with a 23-17 win.
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -10
O/U: 41
While struggling on the east coast all of last year, the closest the Cards came to a win in the regular season was @Carolina. Then they went to Carolina again in the playoffs and finished the job. And that was when Carolina was good! Now the struggling Panthers come into the desert again a hot, confident Arizona team that has finally seen its defense step it up like I expected them to before the season began. Carolina has never lost in Arizona (3-0), but there's a first time for everything.
My Pick: Cards -10. Arizona continues to click on all cylinders, winning 34-17.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 47.5
The Vikings have lost to the spread in their last 2 visits to Green Bay, but were 7-0 ATS their previous 7 trips. Plus their "new" quarterback knows how to play at Lambeau, and has already won there once or twice in his career. Green Bay will play hard, knowing that they have to upstage Brett in his return, but he has been dynamite this season, and I don't expect the friendly confines of Lambeau to trip him up. Green Bay has been solid lately, but they haven't played a decent team since their trip to Minneapolis. Brett was brought in to win a super bowl, but his secondary objective was to win @ Green Bay...He will.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 30-23.
Monday, November 2nd:
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -10
O/U: 54
I don't see how the Falcons can keep up with the Saints in the Metrodome. They've blown out everyone that's visited this season. Reggie's comments about going undefeated were premature, but I don't think anyone really pays attention to him, so it likely won't have any effect. The Saints are only 5-15 ATS at home against the Falcons since 1990 and Mike Smith still hasn't lost consecutive games as Falcons coach, but I just don't see how the Falcons' 26th-ranked pass defense can hold the Saints under 40.
My Pick: Saints -10. I want it to be a good game, but the Saints are too good. They win going away, 42-27.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
NFL Week Seven Recap
Overall SU: 67-36 (8-5 wk 7)
Week 7 ATS: 5-7-1
Overall ATS: 47-55-1
Week 7: The week of the blowout! The only teams to pull upsets were the Bills and Cards; every other favorite won.
Where did the 49ers go?
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44
My Pick: 49ers +3. San Fran wins big 27-17.
Result: Texans 24-21
The 49ers were stellar until 2 weeks ago, losing only on a last-second Favre pass in Minnesota. Now they rebound from a blowout home loss to Atlanta with a loss in Houston? Their defense has to be better than that, and was early in the year. Now I'm not sure what to make of a team that was on track to win its division just a few weeks ago. Houston has gotten better as the season has progressed, but is still a middle-of-the-road team.
Struck Down
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Chargers -5. San Diego wins 30-13.
Result: Chargers 37-7
San Diego needed this rout to prove that they aren't going away in the AFC West. If the Broncos stumble, they'll be right on their heels, ready to claim the division title.
Anything less would have been embarassing
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Packers -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -7. Green Bay 30-21.
Result: Packers 31-3
Heading into their biggest game of the year (round 2 vs. Min), the Packers defense held true again, and Rodgers did everything he needed to, leading the team to another blowout. It won't be that easy next week...
When will they lose? Not soon... Not soon.
Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Colts -13
O/U: 45
My Pick: Colts -13. Indianapolis in a blowout 38-10.
Result: Colts 42-6
Peyton is on top of his game, and Indy looks poised to remain unbeaten longer than any other team in the league, unless the Saints magical run can continue. The way the Colts and Saints have played thus far, I'm not sure who will beat them. But somebody almost always does, so I wouldn't expect either to remain unbeaten into the playoffs.
London Falling
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Patriots -14.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Patriots -14.5. New England comes back with a 40-20 win.
Result: Patriots 35-7
Nice of the Pats not to run up the score this week! The Bucs are awful, and I don't foresee their first victory. With Josh Johnson at QB and a defense that continues to let up big plays, they could be the new Lions.
Damn Defense
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Vikings +5. Steelers still win 23-21.
Result: Steelers 27-17
I was correct in assuming that this would be a close, hotly contested game. But the damn Steelers defense decided to get 2 huge returns in the 4th to beat the spread. Imagine watching the game...Vikings, down 3, driving late...I was sure they'd beat the spread. A field goal and the Steelers would drive down, kick it, and win by 3. A touchdown and there was no way for me to lose. Then "that" happened. But Harvin's kick return made it all better, and after the Vikings O got the ball back, I was in business again. Same thought process. Same problem. Analysts always talk about how winning 2 of the 3 phases of the game will earn a team a victory. The Vikings offense was clearly better than Pittsburgh's. They seemed to move the ball almost at will. Minny's special teams were better, thanks in part to Harvin's big return. The Steelers only won the defensive side of the ball, and only due to their big plays. Unfortunate, but it happens. I hope this game will be played again in early February.
NOW they win...How bad is Carolina?
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins 23-10.
Result: Bills 20-9
Buffalo still has no offense, but when the defense can score more than it allows, that doesn't matter. Carolina is atrocious, and has beaten the spread only once all year...against Tampa. Like the Titans, I'm not yet sure what to make of a team that was good last year and returns almost all of their talent. You know they could win any game at any time if they put it together, yet they've been bad thus far, so you almost want to write them off.
How was this a blowout?
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Raiders +6. New York escapes with a 13-10 win.
Result: Jets 38-0
I understand the Zero. The Jets D is good. But how did Sanchez put up 38 against a team that played ok last week and got a win against Philly? Weird.
Where did this come from?
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Falcons +4. Atlanta wins outright 24-20.
Result: Cowboys 37-21
The Falcons are headed right back to where people expected them to be pre-season. Despite some impressive wins, they've now got 2 losses and are all but a shoe-in for a third next week when they visit New Orleans, home of the 45-point offense. At 4-3, they'll be a very solid middle of the road team, but will need to step it up in the hope of earning a wild card, as it doesn't look like anyone will overtake the Saints. Dallas is a middle of the road team with above average talent. They can beat good teams, but have also struggled against bad ones. It's all on Romo; When he shows, they have a shot in most games.
Holy Comeback
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-27.
Result: Saints 46-34
When the "24-3 Dolphins" score flashed across the screen, I chalked this up as a certain loss. Miami's D was holding Brees down, and the Saints couldn't stop the Miami wildcat...just what I had feared when I picked the game. Apparently I forgot that Brees only needs one half to put up 40+ points. Wow. I went into the NFL stats page to see which teams have the best pass defenses in the league...would you believe that the Saints have already beaten them all? The Jets and Bills are recurring names on the list, both in the top 5 in completion percentage allowed, even after aplying Brees and the Saints. The Giants, Panthers, and Colts are also up there in pass yds allowed per game. The Saints beat the Giants pretty badly, but apprently didn't hurt their stats much. They must have been THAT good in every other game, because it seemed to me as though they were shredded by Brees. New Orleans will see Carolina twice before the season ends, but despite the league's best (on paper...) pass defense, they can't do much else, and I would be absolutely shocked if they beat the Saints. New Orleans won't see Indy unless they meet in the Super Bowl.
Aren't the Bears a defensive team?
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Bears +1. Chicago wins 21-20.
Result: Bengals 45-10
I've got nothin. No idea what the hell happened to the Bears' D. I'm sure it will be remedied, but I don't know when. For now, I must assume that the Bears are an average team, and that the Bengals are quite good. They have to go 7-2 the rest of the way to hit Ochocinco's prediction, though. I don't think so, Cincy.
Whoa...
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 46
My Pick: Giants -7. New York crushes the Cards 34-14.
Result: Cards 24-17
Before the season, I thought the Cardinals defense would be confident, quick, and able to beat the best teams in the league. They proved me wrong 2 of the season's first 3 weeks, so I gave up on them. Now they seem to have found their stride, as long as Rodgers-Cromartie isn't hurt too bad. A win @New York is huge, and Arizona, with San Fran struggling, is my new (and preseason...) favorite in the West. New York gets into some tough division play now, and I expect them to be back on top of thier game. The past two weeks was a bump in the road. They're not dead yet.
Stupid Redskins...God they suck
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Skins +7. Philadelphia still wins 16-10.
Result: Eagles 27-17
Washington's offense is pathetic. Philly played a good first half and a pretty bad second half, yet still won by 10. Yes, they blitz a lot. But a professional offense would figure out how to deal with that.
Week 7 ATS: 5-7-1
Overall ATS: 47-55-1
Week 7: The week of the blowout! The only teams to pull upsets were the Bills and Cards; every other favorite won.
Where did the 49ers go?
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44
My Pick: 49ers +3. San Fran wins big 27-17.
Result: Texans 24-21
The 49ers were stellar until 2 weeks ago, losing only on a last-second Favre pass in Minnesota. Now they rebound from a blowout home loss to Atlanta with a loss in Houston? Their defense has to be better than that, and was early in the year. Now I'm not sure what to make of a team that was on track to win its division just a few weeks ago. Houston has gotten better as the season has progressed, but is still a middle-of-the-road team.
Struck Down
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Chargers -5. San Diego wins 30-13.
Result: Chargers 37-7
San Diego needed this rout to prove that they aren't going away in the AFC West. If the Broncos stumble, they'll be right on their heels, ready to claim the division title.
Anything less would have been embarassing
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Packers -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -7. Green Bay 30-21.
Result: Packers 31-3
Heading into their biggest game of the year (round 2 vs. Min), the Packers defense held true again, and Rodgers did everything he needed to, leading the team to another blowout. It won't be that easy next week...
When will they lose? Not soon... Not soon.
Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Colts -13
O/U: 45
My Pick: Colts -13. Indianapolis in a blowout 38-10.
Result: Colts 42-6
Peyton is on top of his game, and Indy looks poised to remain unbeaten longer than any other team in the league, unless the Saints magical run can continue. The way the Colts and Saints have played thus far, I'm not sure who will beat them. But somebody almost always does, so I wouldn't expect either to remain unbeaten into the playoffs.
London Falling
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Patriots -14.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Patriots -14.5. New England comes back with a 40-20 win.
Result: Patriots 35-7
Nice of the Pats not to run up the score this week! The Bucs are awful, and I don't foresee their first victory. With Josh Johnson at QB and a defense that continues to let up big plays, they could be the new Lions.
Damn Defense
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Vikings +5. Steelers still win 23-21.
Result: Steelers 27-17
I was correct in assuming that this would be a close, hotly contested game. But the damn Steelers defense decided to get 2 huge returns in the 4th to beat the spread. Imagine watching the game...Vikings, down 3, driving late...I was sure they'd beat the spread. A field goal and the Steelers would drive down, kick it, and win by 3. A touchdown and there was no way for me to lose. Then "that" happened. But Harvin's kick return made it all better, and after the Vikings O got the ball back, I was in business again. Same thought process. Same problem. Analysts always talk about how winning 2 of the 3 phases of the game will earn a team a victory. The Vikings offense was clearly better than Pittsburgh's. They seemed to move the ball almost at will. Minny's special teams were better, thanks in part to Harvin's big return. The Steelers only won the defensive side of the ball, and only due to their big plays. Unfortunate, but it happens. I hope this game will be played again in early February.
NOW they win...How bad is Carolina?
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins 23-10.
Result: Bills 20-9
Buffalo still has no offense, but when the defense can score more than it allows, that doesn't matter. Carolina is atrocious, and has beaten the spread only once all year...against Tampa. Like the Titans, I'm not yet sure what to make of a team that was good last year and returns almost all of their talent. You know they could win any game at any time if they put it together, yet they've been bad thus far, so you almost want to write them off.
How was this a blowout?
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Raiders +6. New York escapes with a 13-10 win.
Result: Jets 38-0
I understand the Zero. The Jets D is good. But how did Sanchez put up 38 against a team that played ok last week and got a win against Philly? Weird.
Where did this come from?
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Falcons +4. Atlanta wins outright 24-20.
Result: Cowboys 37-21
The Falcons are headed right back to where people expected them to be pre-season. Despite some impressive wins, they've now got 2 losses and are all but a shoe-in for a third next week when they visit New Orleans, home of the 45-point offense. At 4-3, they'll be a very solid middle of the road team, but will need to step it up in the hope of earning a wild card, as it doesn't look like anyone will overtake the Saints. Dallas is a middle of the road team with above average talent. They can beat good teams, but have also struggled against bad ones. It's all on Romo; When he shows, they have a shot in most games.
Holy Comeback
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-27.
Result: Saints 46-34
When the "24-3 Dolphins" score flashed across the screen, I chalked this up as a certain loss. Miami's D was holding Brees down, and the Saints couldn't stop the Miami wildcat...just what I had feared when I picked the game. Apparently I forgot that Brees only needs one half to put up 40+ points. Wow. I went into the NFL stats page to see which teams have the best pass defenses in the league...would you believe that the Saints have already beaten them all? The Jets and Bills are recurring names on the list, both in the top 5 in completion percentage allowed, even after aplying Brees and the Saints. The Giants, Panthers, and Colts are also up there in pass yds allowed per game. The Saints beat the Giants pretty badly, but apprently didn't hurt their stats much. They must have been THAT good in every other game, because it seemed to me as though they were shredded by Brees. New Orleans will see Carolina twice before the season ends, but despite the league's best (on paper...) pass defense, they can't do much else, and I would be absolutely shocked if they beat the Saints. New Orleans won't see Indy unless they meet in the Super Bowl.
Aren't the Bears a defensive team?
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Bears +1. Chicago wins 21-20.
Result: Bengals 45-10
I've got nothin. No idea what the hell happened to the Bears' D. I'm sure it will be remedied, but I don't know when. For now, I must assume that the Bears are an average team, and that the Bengals are quite good. They have to go 7-2 the rest of the way to hit Ochocinco's prediction, though. I don't think so, Cincy.
Whoa...
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 46
My Pick: Giants -7. New York crushes the Cards 34-14.
Result: Cards 24-17
Before the season, I thought the Cardinals defense would be confident, quick, and able to beat the best teams in the league. They proved me wrong 2 of the season's first 3 weeks, so I gave up on them. Now they seem to have found their stride, as long as Rodgers-Cromartie isn't hurt too bad. A win @New York is huge, and Arizona, with San Fran struggling, is my new (and preseason...) favorite in the West. New York gets into some tough division play now, and I expect them to be back on top of thier game. The past two weeks was a bump in the road. They're not dead yet.
Stupid Redskins...God they suck
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Skins +7. Philadelphia still wins 16-10.
Result: Eagles 27-17
Washington's offense is pathetic. Philly played a good first half and a pretty bad second half, yet still won by 10. Yes, they blitz a lot. But a professional offense would figure out how to deal with that.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
NFL Week Seven Preview
Sunday, October 25th:
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44
This one's a no-brainer. Houston has been up and down all season (thus far every ATS win has been followed by an ATS loss), and San Fran is a physically dominating team, coming off a bye week and pissed off that Atlanta made them look like fools. This one shouldn't even be close.
My Pick: 49ers +3. San Fran wins big 27-17.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5
O/U: 44
San Diego is only 3-9 in their last 12 games as a favorite, but they're in dire straits right now. KC has a good ATS home record against San Diego (8-3-1 last 12), but won't be able to contain the Bolts if they play well. Now that they know Denver is for real, San Diego desperately needs wins, and they won't be playing around.
My Pick: Chargers -5. San Diego wins 30-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Packers -7
O/U: 41.5
Green Bay failed miserably in their first attempt to beat an AFC North opponent, and Cleveland has been getting better. They've beaten the spread the past 3 weeks. The Packers have followed every spread win thus far with an ATS loss, but for some reason I think they match up well enough against Cleveland to take care of business.
My Pick: Packers -7. Green Bay 30-21.
Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Colts -13
O/U: 45
The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Indy. And that's about all they have going for them. Indy is coming off a bye and playing on turf despite being on the road. Indy won't be held down, and I'm not sure St. Louis will score.
My Pick: Colts -13. Indianapolis in a blowout 38-10.
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Patriots -14.5
O/U: 45
The long trip to London may slow down the Patriot offense, but the Bucs defense certainly won't. It's an awfully big spread, but the Bucs are awful. I almost feel bad that, with the season they're having, they have to go all the way to London to get demolished by the Pats.
My Pick: Patriots -14.5. New England comes back with a 40-20 win.
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 45
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 pre-bye-week home games, and I expect that trend to continue. Though I do feel this is the week the Vikings will finally fall, I don't think it will be by 5 points. And the odds of the Vikings either losing by less than 5 or winning are FAR higher than the odds that they'll be blown out.
My Pick: Vikings +5. Steelers still win 23-21.
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 36.5
Normally I would pick the Bills to cover this without hesitating, but they now have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and Harvard Sucks. With no offense and the Panthers likely making a concerted effort to get the ball to Steve Smith after this past week's comments, the Bills are in trouble.
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins 23-10.
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 34.5
The Jets are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last 8 October road games, and despite a 3-3 ATS record, the Raiders are awful. They did show signs of life last week against Philly, but the Eagles played a terrible game and likely would have lost to anyone. My problem is that the Jets are struggling, and seem to have hit a wall. Now they've got to go all the way across the country to play a team that can surprise people at home.
My Pick: Raiders +6. New York escapes with a 13-10 win.
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 47.5
Are the oddsmakers nuts? I'm not saying that the Cowboys, coming off a bye, have no shot to win by 4, but there is no way that there's a 50% chance that it will happen. The Falcons have won outright 7 of the 9 times they've been an underdog in Dallas, and even though Dallas is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games after a bye, I'm not sure the extra week will help them against a solid, confident Atlanta team.
My Pick: Falcons +4. Atlanta wins outright 24-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 47
I'm not sure how the Saints D will handle the wildcat, but I'm pretty sure that the Dolphin D can't handle the Saints O. Though Miami is 2-1 ATS at home thus far, they were 2-6 ATS at home all of last year. If the Saints are good enough to make the mighty Giants look foolish, they shouldn't be surprised in Miami.
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-27.
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 41.5
This pick is going to be totally trend-based, because it really could go either way. The road team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings in the series, so we'll pick solely based on that, with a little help from the fact that Cincy is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 October home games. Neither team is consistent enough for me to make a merit-based selection.
My Pick: Bears +1. Chicago wins 21-20.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 46
Despite a cross-country road win earlier in the year, I still don't trust the Cards when they have to play on the East Coast. The Giants are pissed about last week, and they'll be taking out their frustrations on the Cards. This is all but a sure thing.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York crushes the Cards 34-14.
Monday, October 26th:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 37.5
Philly is usually a somewhat streaky team, and after last week's performance, they'll either come out and destroy the Skins, or they'll try too hard and play like crap again. The Skins keep beating the spread as a dog, so we'll assume they can do it again. Plus they're 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against Philly.
My Pick: Skins +7. Philadelphia still wins 16-10.
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44
This one's a no-brainer. Houston has been up and down all season (thus far every ATS win has been followed by an ATS loss), and San Fran is a physically dominating team, coming off a bye week and pissed off that Atlanta made them look like fools. This one shouldn't even be close.
My Pick: 49ers +3. San Fran wins big 27-17.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5
O/U: 44
San Diego is only 3-9 in their last 12 games as a favorite, but they're in dire straits right now. KC has a good ATS home record against San Diego (8-3-1 last 12), but won't be able to contain the Bolts if they play well. Now that they know Denver is for real, San Diego desperately needs wins, and they won't be playing around.
My Pick: Chargers -5. San Diego wins 30-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Packers -7
O/U: 41.5
Green Bay failed miserably in their first attempt to beat an AFC North opponent, and Cleveland has been getting better. They've beaten the spread the past 3 weeks. The Packers have followed every spread win thus far with an ATS loss, but for some reason I think they match up well enough against Cleveland to take care of business.
My Pick: Packers -7. Green Bay 30-21.
Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Colts -13
O/U: 45
The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Indy. And that's about all they have going for them. Indy is coming off a bye and playing on turf despite being on the road. Indy won't be held down, and I'm not sure St. Louis will score.
My Pick: Colts -13. Indianapolis in a blowout 38-10.
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Patriots -14.5
O/U: 45
The long trip to London may slow down the Patriot offense, but the Bucs defense certainly won't. It's an awfully big spread, but the Bucs are awful. I almost feel bad that, with the season they're having, they have to go all the way to London to get demolished by the Pats.
My Pick: Patriots -14.5. New England comes back with a 40-20 win.
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 45
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 pre-bye-week home games, and I expect that trend to continue. Though I do feel this is the week the Vikings will finally fall, I don't think it will be by 5 points. And the odds of the Vikings either losing by less than 5 or winning are FAR higher than the odds that they'll be blown out.
My Pick: Vikings +5. Steelers still win 23-21.
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 36.5
Normally I would pick the Bills to cover this without hesitating, but they now have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and Harvard Sucks. With no offense and the Panthers likely making a concerted effort to get the ball to Steve Smith after this past week's comments, the Bills are in trouble.
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins 23-10.
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 34.5
The Jets are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last 8 October road games, and despite a 3-3 ATS record, the Raiders are awful. They did show signs of life last week against Philly, but the Eagles played a terrible game and likely would have lost to anyone. My problem is that the Jets are struggling, and seem to have hit a wall. Now they've got to go all the way across the country to play a team that can surprise people at home.
My Pick: Raiders +6. New York escapes with a 13-10 win.
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 47.5
Are the oddsmakers nuts? I'm not saying that the Cowboys, coming off a bye, have no shot to win by 4, but there is no way that there's a 50% chance that it will happen. The Falcons have won outright 7 of the 9 times they've been an underdog in Dallas, and even though Dallas is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games after a bye, I'm not sure the extra week will help them against a solid, confident Atlanta team.
My Pick: Falcons +4. Atlanta wins outright 24-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 47
I'm not sure how the Saints D will handle the wildcat, but I'm pretty sure that the Dolphin D can't handle the Saints O. Though Miami is 2-1 ATS at home thus far, they were 2-6 ATS at home all of last year. If the Saints are good enough to make the mighty Giants look foolish, they shouldn't be surprised in Miami.
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-27.
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 41.5
This pick is going to be totally trend-based, because it really could go either way. The road team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings in the series, so we'll pick solely based on that, with a little help from the fact that Cincy is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 October home games. Neither team is consistent enough for me to make a merit-based selection.
My Pick: Bears +1. Chicago wins 21-20.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 46
Despite a cross-country road win earlier in the year, I still don't trust the Cards when they have to play on the East Coast. The Giants are pissed about last week, and they'll be taking out their frustrations on the Cards. This is all but a sure thing.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York crushes the Cards 34-14.
Monday, October 26th:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 37.5
Philly is usually a somewhat streaky team, and after last week's performance, they'll either come out and destroy the Skins, or they'll try too hard and play like crap again. The Skins keep beating the spread as a dog, so we'll assume they can do it again. Plus they're 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against Philly.
My Pick: Skins +7. Philadelphia still wins 16-10.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
NFL Week Six Recap
Overall SU: 59-31 (7-7 wk 6)
Week 6 ATS: 9-5
Overall ATS: 42-48
What do we Make of these teams?
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Texans +4.5. Cincy wins 27-24.
Result: Texans 28-17
The Bengals could legitimately be 6-0 right now. They should have beaten the Broncos, and have no excuse for losing to the Texans at home. Houston has a couple of big road wins now, but seems to have trouble pulling it all together at home. At 3-3, they look destined for another 8-8 record.
NFC Power Shift
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Giants +3. New York wins outright 24-23.
Result: Saints 48-27
This game should make it much easier for everyone to plan out their NFC power rankings for week 7. There is no question that the re-vamped Saints defense has made them the class of the conference. We'll see how they perform down the stretch, but they could easily be a Super Bowl contender.
Shutout by the Pack?
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -13
O/U: 48
My Pick: Packers -13. Green Bay Rolls 33-17.
Result: Packers 26-0
The Packers defense isn't good enough to shut people out. Which shows just how bad the Lions offense is without Stafford and Johnson.
Are the Browns Getting Better?
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -14
O/U: 38
My Pick: Steelers -14. Pittsbugh wins 27-6.
Result: Steelers 27-14
This is the type of game that kills me. A blowout that still doesn't result in a cover. The Browns kept it relatively close, which either speaks to their positive progress or to the Steelers lack thereof. Since one of the Browns' TDs was a kick return, I'd say their offense still has some work to do. And yes, that is the understatement of the year.
Isn't Zorn an Offensive Guy?
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Chiefs +6.5. Washington remains unbeaten at home, 13-10.
Result: Chiefs 14-6
How can Zorn, a former QB and offensive guy, head such an atrocious offense? You'd think a guy who used to be a great QB would know the difference between an NFL quarterback and Jason Campbell. And switching to Todd Collins isn't going to help. The Skins need a trade. Jeff Garcia's still out there...
The Last Horse Finally Crosses the Finish Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 40
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina beats the spread for the first time with a 28-20 victory.
Result: Panthers 28-21
Carolina was the last remaining team without an ATS win this year. Thanks to the debacle that is the 2009 Bucs, they are winless no more. I am a bit surprised that Steve Smith didn't get anything going against a team that is so susceptible to the big play, though.
These teams are awful...
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Jaguars -9.5. The Jags take out their frustration on the lowly Rams 30-10.
Result: Jags 23-20 (ot)
I should have known better than to assume that an awful team could blow out another awful team. My bad.
The Comeback
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens +2.5. Baltimore wins outright 20-16.
Result: Vikings 33-31
The Vikings had this game well in-hand, but allowed the Ravens to come all the way back. They did the same thing against the Packers earlier this season. If they're going to be a legit contender, they have to work on putting teams away. The Ravens are a very dangerous 3-3 team, and with the Bengals also falling this week, the AFC North could be a nice tight race all the way to the finish.
???
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Eagles -14. Philly embarasses the Raiders 37-10.
Result: Raiders 13-9
Not sure what to say here. The Eagles didn't show up. Period. Now the question is "when will the offensive slump end?". I've seen them do this before, and you never can tell when they'll snap out of it.
I'm a Traitor to my own Beliefs
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle proves they're better than we think with a 31-24 win.
Result: Cards 27-3
In the preseason, I never once wavered on two of my opinions: That the Cards were the best team in the NFC West by a mile, and that the Seahawks would be better, but still not good enough to make a difference. Somehow that all changed before week 6. I should have known better than to count the Cards out. After a slow start, they are back to being a dangerous team that, if they show up, can beat almost anybody.
Disgraceful
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Pats -9.5. New England wins 31-13.
Result: Pats 59-0
Tennessee has to be ashamed of themselves. An NFL-best 13-3 last year, they're now 0-6. We always hear the great worst-to-first stories, but rarely do we notice a great fall like that of this year's Titans. The Pats shouldn't have run up the score, but Belichick has Brady as his fantasy QB, so he needed to pad the stats.
Gotta know your Jets!
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -9.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bills +9.5. Jets still win 24-17.
Result: Bills 16-13 (ot)
Yes, it's disgusting that the Bills won this game with Fitzpatrick at QB. But I was right. The Jets loss to the Saints DID send them into a tailspin. They DO seem destined to fall toward the bottom of the division, where everyone expected them to be before the year started. And with Kris Jenkins out for the year, they're going to be even worse against the run from here on out. Oh well. Sorry Jets. You had three good weeks...
NFC Challenger?
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta continues to impress with a 31-21 win.
Result: Falcons 21-14
Can Atlanta challenge New Orleans and Minnesota in the NFC? They are playing awfully well right now. When the Saints and Falcons finally meet we should get a better picture of how the NFC South will shake out. A Falcons loss could mean that the Saints will roll to an easy division title.
Ladies and Gentlemen, your 6-0 Denver Broncos?
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Denver Wins outright 21-20.
Result: Broncos 34-23
Nobody has a better second-half defense than the Broncos. They allowed only 3 points to a San Diego team that, to be honest, looked nearly unstoppable on a few of their first-half drives. And this was on the heels of 4 straight games in which they'd allowed ZERO second-half points. Wow. Talk about a confident team that knows how to close. San Diego finds themselves in a hole once again. They crawled out of it last year, barely making the postseason. They will likely have to go 8-3 or better down the stretch to get a wild card, as Denver looks like a near-sure-thing to win the West.
Week 6 ATS: 9-5
Overall ATS: 42-48
What do we Make of these teams?
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Texans +4.5. Cincy wins 27-24.
Result: Texans 28-17
The Bengals could legitimately be 6-0 right now. They should have beaten the Broncos, and have no excuse for losing to the Texans at home. Houston has a couple of big road wins now, but seems to have trouble pulling it all together at home. At 3-3, they look destined for another 8-8 record.
NFC Power Shift
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Giants +3. New York wins outright 24-23.
Result: Saints 48-27
This game should make it much easier for everyone to plan out their NFC power rankings for week 7. There is no question that the re-vamped Saints defense has made them the class of the conference. We'll see how they perform down the stretch, but they could easily be a Super Bowl contender.
Shutout by the Pack?
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -13
O/U: 48
My Pick: Packers -13. Green Bay Rolls 33-17.
Result: Packers 26-0
The Packers defense isn't good enough to shut people out. Which shows just how bad the Lions offense is without Stafford and Johnson.
Are the Browns Getting Better?
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -14
O/U: 38
My Pick: Steelers -14. Pittsbugh wins 27-6.
Result: Steelers 27-14
This is the type of game that kills me. A blowout that still doesn't result in a cover. The Browns kept it relatively close, which either speaks to their positive progress or to the Steelers lack thereof. Since one of the Browns' TDs was a kick return, I'd say their offense still has some work to do. And yes, that is the understatement of the year.
Isn't Zorn an Offensive Guy?
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Chiefs +6.5. Washington remains unbeaten at home, 13-10.
Result: Chiefs 14-6
How can Zorn, a former QB and offensive guy, head such an atrocious offense? You'd think a guy who used to be a great QB would know the difference between an NFL quarterback and Jason Campbell. And switching to Todd Collins isn't going to help. The Skins need a trade. Jeff Garcia's still out there...
The Last Horse Finally Crosses the Finish Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 40
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina beats the spread for the first time with a 28-20 victory.
Result: Panthers 28-21
Carolina was the last remaining team without an ATS win this year. Thanks to the debacle that is the 2009 Bucs, they are winless no more. I am a bit surprised that Steve Smith didn't get anything going against a team that is so susceptible to the big play, though.
These teams are awful...
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Jaguars -9.5. The Jags take out their frustration on the lowly Rams 30-10.
Result: Jags 23-20 (ot)
I should have known better than to assume that an awful team could blow out another awful team. My bad.
The Comeback
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens +2.5. Baltimore wins outright 20-16.
Result: Vikings 33-31
The Vikings had this game well in-hand, but allowed the Ravens to come all the way back. They did the same thing against the Packers earlier this season. If they're going to be a legit contender, they have to work on putting teams away. The Ravens are a very dangerous 3-3 team, and with the Bengals also falling this week, the AFC North could be a nice tight race all the way to the finish.
???
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Eagles -14. Philly embarasses the Raiders 37-10.
Result: Raiders 13-9
Not sure what to say here. The Eagles didn't show up. Period. Now the question is "when will the offensive slump end?". I've seen them do this before, and you never can tell when they'll snap out of it.
I'm a Traitor to my own Beliefs
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle proves they're better than we think with a 31-24 win.
Result: Cards 27-3
In the preseason, I never once wavered on two of my opinions: That the Cards were the best team in the NFC West by a mile, and that the Seahawks would be better, but still not good enough to make a difference. Somehow that all changed before week 6. I should have known better than to count the Cards out. After a slow start, they are back to being a dangerous team that, if they show up, can beat almost anybody.
Disgraceful
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Pats -9.5. New England wins 31-13.
Result: Pats 59-0
Tennessee has to be ashamed of themselves. An NFL-best 13-3 last year, they're now 0-6. We always hear the great worst-to-first stories, but rarely do we notice a great fall like that of this year's Titans. The Pats shouldn't have run up the score, but Belichick has Brady as his fantasy QB, so he needed to pad the stats.
Gotta know your Jets!
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -9.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bills +9.5. Jets still win 24-17.
Result: Bills 16-13 (ot)
Yes, it's disgusting that the Bills won this game with Fitzpatrick at QB. But I was right. The Jets loss to the Saints DID send them into a tailspin. They DO seem destined to fall toward the bottom of the division, where everyone expected them to be before the year started. And with Kris Jenkins out for the year, they're going to be even worse against the run from here on out. Oh well. Sorry Jets. You had three good weeks...
NFC Challenger?
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta continues to impress with a 31-21 win.
Result: Falcons 21-14
Can Atlanta challenge New Orleans and Minnesota in the NFC? They are playing awfully well right now. When the Saints and Falcons finally meet we should get a better picture of how the NFC South will shake out. A Falcons loss could mean that the Saints will roll to an easy division title.
Ladies and Gentlemen, your 6-0 Denver Broncos?
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Denver Wins outright 21-20.
Result: Broncos 34-23
Nobody has a better second-half defense than the Broncos. They allowed only 3 points to a San Diego team that, to be honest, looked nearly unstoppable on a few of their first-half drives. And this was on the heels of 4 straight games in which they'd allowed ZERO second-half points. Wow. Talk about a confident team that knows how to close. San Diego finds themselves in a hole once again. They crawled out of it last year, barely making the postseason. They will likely have to go 8-3 or better down the stretch to get a wild card, as Denver looks like a near-sure-thing to win the West.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
NFL Week Six Preview
Sunday, October 18th:
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4.5
O/U: 45
Cincy is one of the biggest surprises in the league, and would hate to falter at home against the Texans after beating the likes of PIT, GB, and BAL. Neither of these teams is historically good ATS in October, but Houston is 7-2 the last 9 games they've played as an underdog and has been up and down all season. After being down last week, look for them to be up.
My Pick: Texans +4.5. Cincy wins 27-24.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 47.5
You would think that with New Orleans coming off a bye this one's a no-brainer. The Saints are widely regarded as one of the 3 best teams in football, they've had a whole extra week to prepare, and they're playing at home. Oddly enough, New Orleans is historically bad after the bye (just 2-6 the last 8, 0 for their last 3 at home). Not to mention that the Giants are also among the league's top 3 teams, and Eli Manning has only lost once in a dome in 7 career games. 8 of the last 10 NYG games against the NFC South have been played Under, and if the Giants defense can contain Brees, this one will be, too. New Orleans is one of only 2 teams (DEN) that hasn't lost to the spread yet this season. Look for that streak to end.
My Pick: Giants +3. New York wins outright 24-23.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -13
O/U: 48
The Lions have lost 18 straight @ Green Bay, but the question isn't who will win. Can the Lions put up enough of a fight to cover? Even with Stafford back and Green Bay's pass defense playing some questionable football, the Packers have had an extra week to prepare for a team that has won only one game in the last two years.
My Pick: Packers -13. Green Bay Rolls 33-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -14
O/U: 38
None of the trends really apply to this game. All they say is that Pittsburgh will win. That part is pretty obvious. Despite Pittsburgh's abysmal 1-4 ATS record this season, they should win by a ton. The offense has been solid, and if Cleveland can only manage 2 field goals and 2 completions against Buffalo, they'll get nothin' against the Steeler D. These teams have played 5 of their last 7 games @ Pitt Over, but if Pittsburgh gets hit by the forecasted rain/snow mix, they may not score enough points to beat this spread. If the weather's clear, they'll win by 20. 30% chance of rain/snow means 30% chance of the Browns beating the spread.
My Pick: Steelers -14. Pittsbugh wins 27-6.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 37.5
This one's a no-brainer. The Skins have played every game close this season and the Chiefs just nearly beat a much better NFC East foe, the Dallas Cowboys. Plus KC is 4-0 their last 4 SU and ATS against the Skins. Washington is 0-3 ATS as a favorite, 2-0 ATS as a dog. That should continue.
My Pick: Chiefs +6.5. Washington remains unbeaten at home, 13-10.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 40
The Panthers are 5-1 SU @ Tampa in their last 6 tries, and to win so consistently on another team's field is rare. Not to mention that the Panthers should be better than the Bucs.
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina beats the spread for the first time with a 28-20 victory.
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Had the Jags not been embarassed last weekend, this could have been St. Louis' first (and maybe only...) win of the season. But now the Jags are pissed. Despite winning and covering the previous two meetings, I'm not sure the Rams can pull this one off against a very frustrated Jacksonville team, which as of a week ago, thought it might be headed in the right direction. The Jags are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games before a bye, and that streak shall continue.
My Pick: Jaguars -9.5. The Jags take out their frustration on the lowly Rams 30-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 43.5
The Ravens, one of the best teams in the league, have lost 2 in a row. The Vikings have to lose sometime, and may as well do it against one of the league's premiere defenses. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf, and after an NFL-Best 3 overall ATS losses all of last year, they've dropped 2 in a row. Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 against Baltimore. As the Under is 6-1 the last 7 pre-bye Baltimore games, I expect a defensive battle.
My Pick: Ravens +2.5. Baltimore wins outright 20-16.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 40.5
Despite a 2-5 ATS mark in their last 7 games against the Raiders, Philly is the type of team that generally blows out lesser opponents, and I'd expect no less this week in Oakland. The Jamarcus Russell thing is a mess, and Oakland is in shambles right now. Donovan will light them up.
My Pick: Eagles -14. Philly embarasses the Raiders 37-10.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 47
Seattle is 2-0 ATS as a favorite, 0-3 ATS as a dog, meaning they generally do what they're supposed to. Despite a possible letdown from last week's blowout, I think the Seahawks have the right mindset: they're out to prove they can win the West. Arizona is 1-5 SU in their last 6 trips to Seattle, and despite a stellar 6-0 ATS record against the NFC West last season, they've lost their only division game thus far in '09.
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle proves they're better than we think with a 31-24 win.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9.5
O/U: 43
The Titans are having an awful year. Hopefully they can regroup a bit during the bye and win some games thereafter, because a road trip to New England likely means an 0-6 start. Tennessee is historically good before the bye week (6-1 ATS last 7), but they haven't struggled in the past like they're struggling this year. New England, coming off a tough loss in Denver, will be ready to play. They've been solid at home so far this season (3-0, 2-1 ATS), and ought to stay that way. As long as the Pats' D doesn't get run over by Chris Johnson and LenDale White, they'll cover easily.
My Pick: Pats -9.5. New England wins 31-13.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -9.5
O/U: 38
Despite a loss to Miami and the problem of suddenly looking "human" defensively, I think the Jets have more than enough talent to hold down a Bills team that is struggling mightily. With linebackers Mitchell and Buggs now done for the year, Buffalo is going to have trouble defensively. And when your offense can't score, that's a big problem. The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Jets, and New York has covered only one of their last 5 meetings with the Bills at Giants Stadium. Since the Jets have looked a bit questionable, I'll give my Bills the benefit of the doubt on a huge spread.
My Pick: Bills +9.5. Jets still win 24-17.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 45.5
Although the Bears are 3-1 in their last 4 trips to Atlanta, the Falcons made a huge statement last week in San Fran. Home field advantage will be big, and I'm not sure that the Bears can do much against Atlanta, even with an extra week to prepare.
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta continues to impress with a 31-21 win.
Monday, October 19th:
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 44
The Broncos look quite good, but are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 trips to San Diego. Plus San Diego is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 post-bye games and is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 within the division. Denver has to lose sometime, and I would expect it to be this week, as San Diego is out to prove that they are the team to beat in the AFC West. So naturally I must go completely against my gut and pick the Broncos.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Denver Wins outright 21-20.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4.5
O/U: 45
Cincy is one of the biggest surprises in the league, and would hate to falter at home against the Texans after beating the likes of PIT, GB, and BAL. Neither of these teams is historically good ATS in October, but Houston is 7-2 the last 9 games they've played as an underdog and has been up and down all season. After being down last week, look for them to be up.
My Pick: Texans +4.5. Cincy wins 27-24.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 47.5
You would think that with New Orleans coming off a bye this one's a no-brainer. The Saints are widely regarded as one of the 3 best teams in football, they've had a whole extra week to prepare, and they're playing at home. Oddly enough, New Orleans is historically bad after the bye (just 2-6 the last 8, 0 for their last 3 at home). Not to mention that the Giants are also among the league's top 3 teams, and Eli Manning has only lost once in a dome in 7 career games. 8 of the last 10 NYG games against the NFC South have been played Under, and if the Giants defense can contain Brees, this one will be, too. New Orleans is one of only 2 teams (DEN) that hasn't lost to the spread yet this season. Look for that streak to end.
My Pick: Giants +3. New York wins outright 24-23.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -13
O/U: 48
The Lions have lost 18 straight @ Green Bay, but the question isn't who will win. Can the Lions put up enough of a fight to cover? Even with Stafford back and Green Bay's pass defense playing some questionable football, the Packers have had an extra week to prepare for a team that has won only one game in the last two years.
My Pick: Packers -13. Green Bay Rolls 33-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -14
O/U: 38
None of the trends really apply to this game. All they say is that Pittsburgh will win. That part is pretty obvious. Despite Pittsburgh's abysmal 1-4 ATS record this season, they should win by a ton. The offense has been solid, and if Cleveland can only manage 2 field goals and 2 completions against Buffalo, they'll get nothin' against the Steeler D. These teams have played 5 of their last 7 games @ Pitt Over, but if Pittsburgh gets hit by the forecasted rain/snow mix, they may not score enough points to beat this spread. If the weather's clear, they'll win by 20. 30% chance of rain/snow means 30% chance of the Browns beating the spread.
My Pick: Steelers -14. Pittsbugh wins 27-6.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 37.5
This one's a no-brainer. The Skins have played every game close this season and the Chiefs just nearly beat a much better NFC East foe, the Dallas Cowboys. Plus KC is 4-0 their last 4 SU and ATS against the Skins. Washington is 0-3 ATS as a favorite, 2-0 ATS as a dog. That should continue.
My Pick: Chiefs +6.5. Washington remains unbeaten at home, 13-10.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 40
The Panthers are 5-1 SU @ Tampa in their last 6 tries, and to win so consistently on another team's field is rare. Not to mention that the Panthers should be better than the Bucs.
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina beats the spread for the first time with a 28-20 victory.
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Had the Jags not been embarassed last weekend, this could have been St. Louis' first (and maybe only...) win of the season. But now the Jags are pissed. Despite winning and covering the previous two meetings, I'm not sure the Rams can pull this one off against a very frustrated Jacksonville team, which as of a week ago, thought it might be headed in the right direction. The Jags are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games before a bye, and that streak shall continue.
My Pick: Jaguars -9.5. The Jags take out their frustration on the lowly Rams 30-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 43.5
The Ravens, one of the best teams in the league, have lost 2 in a row. The Vikings have to lose sometime, and may as well do it against one of the league's premiere defenses. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf, and after an NFL-Best 3 overall ATS losses all of last year, they've dropped 2 in a row. Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 against Baltimore. As the Under is 6-1 the last 7 pre-bye Baltimore games, I expect a defensive battle.
My Pick: Ravens +2.5. Baltimore wins outright 20-16.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 40.5
Despite a 2-5 ATS mark in their last 7 games against the Raiders, Philly is the type of team that generally blows out lesser opponents, and I'd expect no less this week in Oakland. The Jamarcus Russell thing is a mess, and Oakland is in shambles right now. Donovan will light them up.
My Pick: Eagles -14. Philly embarasses the Raiders 37-10.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 47
Seattle is 2-0 ATS as a favorite, 0-3 ATS as a dog, meaning they generally do what they're supposed to. Despite a possible letdown from last week's blowout, I think the Seahawks have the right mindset: they're out to prove they can win the West. Arizona is 1-5 SU in their last 6 trips to Seattle, and despite a stellar 6-0 ATS record against the NFC West last season, they've lost their only division game thus far in '09.
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle proves they're better than we think with a 31-24 win.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9.5
O/U: 43
The Titans are having an awful year. Hopefully they can regroup a bit during the bye and win some games thereafter, because a road trip to New England likely means an 0-6 start. Tennessee is historically good before the bye week (6-1 ATS last 7), but they haven't struggled in the past like they're struggling this year. New England, coming off a tough loss in Denver, will be ready to play. They've been solid at home so far this season (3-0, 2-1 ATS), and ought to stay that way. As long as the Pats' D doesn't get run over by Chris Johnson and LenDale White, they'll cover easily.
My Pick: Pats -9.5. New England wins 31-13.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -9.5
O/U: 38
Despite a loss to Miami and the problem of suddenly looking "human" defensively, I think the Jets have more than enough talent to hold down a Bills team that is struggling mightily. With linebackers Mitchell and Buggs now done for the year, Buffalo is going to have trouble defensively. And when your offense can't score, that's a big problem. The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Jets, and New York has covered only one of their last 5 meetings with the Bills at Giants Stadium. Since the Jets have looked a bit questionable, I'll give my Bills the benefit of the doubt on a huge spread.
My Pick: Bills +9.5. Jets still win 24-17.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 45.5
Although the Bears are 3-1 in their last 4 trips to Atlanta, the Falcons made a huge statement last week in San Fran. Home field advantage will be big, and I'm not sure that the Bears can do much against Atlanta, even with an extra week to prepare.
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta continues to impress with a 31-21 win.
Monday, October 19th:
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 44
The Broncos look quite good, but are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 trips to San Diego. Plus San Diego is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 post-bye games and is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 within the division. Denver has to lose sometime, and I would expect it to be this week, as San Diego is out to prove that they are the team to beat in the AFC West. So naturally I must go completely against my gut and pick the Broncos.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Denver Wins outright 21-20.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
NFL Week Five Recap
Overall SU: 52-24 (10-4 wk 5)
Week 5 ATS: 7-7
Overall ATS: 33-43
Still the Rams
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 41
My Pick: Vikings -10. Minnesota cruises 27-6.
Result: Vikings 38-10
Minnesota still looks good, but St. Louis still looks like they could go 0-16. It's kind of amazing, because they really do have some decent talent on offense. I have no idea how they can suck this badly.
Average At Best
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Cowboys -8
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cowboys -8. Dallas wins 34-20.
Result: Cowboys 26-20 (ot)
I think this game finally shows the Cowboys where they stand in the league. They're just not as good as people seem to think they are (myself included). Usually you hear that the sum of the parts is better than the individual pieces...in this case, it seems to be the other way around. Dallas, on paper, has great talent on both sides of the ball. Yet they just can't put it all together.
Carolina Wins!
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3.5
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Carolina wins 13-12.
Result: Panthers 20-17
A solid comeback win for the Panthers, but they still haven't beaten the spread. They're now the only team in the league with that distinction thanks to Kansas City's ability to hang with the Cowboys.
Everybody Blows out the Bucs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Buccaneers +14.5. Eagles still win big 27-13.
Result: Eagles 33-14
I should have known that the Bucs' propensity to allow the big play would result in another blowout loss. Stupid pick. I just hate to give a team more than 2 touchdowns in the NFL.
Offensive Ineptitude
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Browns +6. Cleveland notches win #1 20-16.
Result: Browns 6-3
This was a disgusting game all around. Derek Anderson completed ONE pass in each half for a grand total of 2 COMPLETIONS the entire game. And they still won. Wow, Buffalo. Wow.
Was Ochocinco Right?
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -8.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Ravens -8.5. Baltimore gets back on track, 30-17.
Result: Bengals 17-14
Now that the Broncos have proven themselves to be far better than expected, it only follows that their week one victim would be proving themselves a much better team than most thought they were after week one. Could this team get to 12 wins, as Ochocinco predicted? They've beaten every team in their division thus far, and their only loss is to an undefeated team. Baltimore is sliding the wrong way, and they need to catch themselves before they dig themselves a hole. If the Bengals are for real, which they appear to be, the AFC North is a definite 3-team race.
They really are THAT bad...
Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -15.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Raiders +15.5. Giants win 24-13.
Result: Giants 44-7
Not much needs to be said. I thought Oakland would at least have enough pride to "show up" against a 16 point spread. They didn't.
Way Too Close
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Pittsburgh wins 31-20.
Result: Steelers 28-20
With Cincy stepping it up, Pittsburgh cannot show any vulnerability if they plan on making it to the playoffs this year. The defending NFL Champs appear to be, at this moment, the third-best team in their own division. When Polamalu comes back they'll get better, but will it be good enough?
What was That?
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Francisco wins a good game at home 23-17.
Result: Falcons 45-10
So much for the good game. San Fran had been so good...I have no idea what happened. They played through 4 weeks with more passion and pride than anyone in the league, and somehow didn't show up in week 5. They'll be back, I'm sure, but who knows when they will disintegrate again?
Holy Crap, They're For Real...
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Line: Patriots -3.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Pats win 20-17.
Result: Broncos 20-17
This pick was made based on my opposite-of-gut theory, and it paid off. I really didn't think much of the Broncos, but having seen them play...well...they're good. Great defense and just enough offense. Rarely do we see a 5-0 team that was expected to be awful in the preseason. New England sucks when they wear the old-school uniforms from back when the Patriots actually DID suck. I wish I knew when they'd be wearing them...
Doing it with Defense?
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -5.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Cardinals -5.5. Arizona wins 34-27.
Result: Cardinals 28-21
Rarely does defense win a shootout, but in this case Arizona managed to pull it off. An INT return for a touchdown and a red-zone stand late in the game proved to be the difference. If Arizona can play solid defense, they can get back to where they should be...Atop the NFC West.
It takes coordination to lose to the Seahawks by this much...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: None
O/U: None
My Pick: Seahawks Pk. Seattle wins 23-13.
Result: Seahawks 41-0
Seriously, what the hell was that? They beat the Titans last week...did they waste all of their offense for the season on that one game? Seattle has flashes of brilliance, but is still behind the Cards and 49ers in the division race. We'll see if they can do anything against those teams to shake things up a bit.
The Titanic Has Hit an Iceberg
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Colts -3.5
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Colts -3.5. Tennessee will win eventually, but it won't be this week. Colts win 24-20.
Result: Colts 31-9
The Titans started 11-0 last year. They are awful since. I have no idea what can spark such an atrocious turnaround, but they've pulled it off. The Colts are excellent, and will be a force to be reckoned with all year long. Peyton is very dangerous normally, but now that he is confident...let's just say nobody in the NFL wishes they were playing in the AFC South.
And The Slide Begins
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Jets -1.5. New York marches on with a 23-9 win.
Result: Dolphins 31-27
I mentioned that I was worried that the first Jets loss would send them into a bit of a slide. I should have listened to myself. I guess I needed to see this game to gain some more respect for what the Dolphins can do without Pennington. Henne played well, and that rushing game crushed the Jets' supposedly Raven-like D. New York could fall fast if that defense can't stop the run. I really thought they'd look much better.
Byes: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
Week 5 ATS: 7-7
Overall ATS: 33-43
Still the Rams
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 41
My Pick: Vikings -10. Minnesota cruises 27-6.
Result: Vikings 38-10
Minnesota still looks good, but St. Louis still looks like they could go 0-16. It's kind of amazing, because they really do have some decent talent on offense. I have no idea how they can suck this badly.
Average At Best
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Cowboys -8
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cowboys -8. Dallas wins 34-20.
Result: Cowboys 26-20 (ot)
I think this game finally shows the Cowboys where they stand in the league. They're just not as good as people seem to think they are (myself included). Usually you hear that the sum of the parts is better than the individual pieces...in this case, it seems to be the other way around. Dallas, on paper, has great talent on both sides of the ball. Yet they just can't put it all together.
Carolina Wins!
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3.5
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Carolina wins 13-12.
Result: Panthers 20-17
A solid comeback win for the Panthers, but they still haven't beaten the spread. They're now the only team in the league with that distinction thanks to Kansas City's ability to hang with the Cowboys.
Everybody Blows out the Bucs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Buccaneers +14.5. Eagles still win big 27-13.
Result: Eagles 33-14
I should have known that the Bucs' propensity to allow the big play would result in another blowout loss. Stupid pick. I just hate to give a team more than 2 touchdowns in the NFL.
Offensive Ineptitude
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Browns +6. Cleveland notches win #1 20-16.
Result: Browns 6-3
This was a disgusting game all around. Derek Anderson completed ONE pass in each half for a grand total of 2 COMPLETIONS the entire game. And they still won. Wow, Buffalo. Wow.
Was Ochocinco Right?
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -8.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Ravens -8.5. Baltimore gets back on track, 30-17.
Result: Bengals 17-14
Now that the Broncos have proven themselves to be far better than expected, it only follows that their week one victim would be proving themselves a much better team than most thought they were after week one. Could this team get to 12 wins, as Ochocinco predicted? They've beaten every team in their division thus far, and their only loss is to an undefeated team. Baltimore is sliding the wrong way, and they need to catch themselves before they dig themselves a hole. If the Bengals are for real, which they appear to be, the AFC North is a definite 3-team race.
They really are THAT bad...
Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -15.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Raiders +15.5. Giants win 24-13.
Result: Giants 44-7
Not much needs to be said. I thought Oakland would at least have enough pride to "show up" against a 16 point spread. They didn't.
Way Too Close
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Pittsburgh wins 31-20.
Result: Steelers 28-20
With Cincy stepping it up, Pittsburgh cannot show any vulnerability if they plan on making it to the playoffs this year. The defending NFL Champs appear to be, at this moment, the third-best team in their own division. When Polamalu comes back they'll get better, but will it be good enough?
What was That?
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Francisco wins a good game at home 23-17.
Result: Falcons 45-10
So much for the good game. San Fran had been so good...I have no idea what happened. They played through 4 weeks with more passion and pride than anyone in the league, and somehow didn't show up in week 5. They'll be back, I'm sure, but who knows when they will disintegrate again?
Holy Crap, They're For Real...
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Line: Patriots -3.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Pats win 20-17.
Result: Broncos 20-17
This pick was made based on my opposite-of-gut theory, and it paid off. I really didn't think much of the Broncos, but having seen them play...well...they're good. Great defense and just enough offense. Rarely do we see a 5-0 team that was expected to be awful in the preseason. New England sucks when they wear the old-school uniforms from back when the Patriots actually DID suck. I wish I knew when they'd be wearing them...
Doing it with Defense?
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -5.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Cardinals -5.5. Arizona wins 34-27.
Result: Cardinals 28-21
Rarely does defense win a shootout, but in this case Arizona managed to pull it off. An INT return for a touchdown and a red-zone stand late in the game proved to be the difference. If Arizona can play solid defense, they can get back to where they should be...Atop the NFC West.
It takes coordination to lose to the Seahawks by this much...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: None
O/U: None
My Pick: Seahawks Pk. Seattle wins 23-13.
Result: Seahawks 41-0
Seriously, what the hell was that? They beat the Titans last week...did they waste all of their offense for the season on that one game? Seattle has flashes of brilliance, but is still behind the Cards and 49ers in the division race. We'll see if they can do anything against those teams to shake things up a bit.
The Titanic Has Hit an Iceberg
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Colts -3.5
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Colts -3.5. Tennessee will win eventually, but it won't be this week. Colts win 24-20.
Result: Colts 31-9
The Titans started 11-0 last year. They are awful since. I have no idea what can spark such an atrocious turnaround, but they've pulled it off. The Colts are excellent, and will be a force to be reckoned with all year long. Peyton is very dangerous normally, but now that he is confident...let's just say nobody in the NFL wishes they were playing in the AFC South.
And The Slide Begins
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Jets -1.5. New York marches on with a 23-9 win.
Result: Dolphins 31-27
I mentioned that I was worried that the first Jets loss would send them into a bit of a slide. I should have listened to myself. I guess I needed to see this game to gain some more respect for what the Dolphins can do without Pennington. Henne played well, and that rushing game crushed the Jets' supposedly Raven-like D. New York could fall fast if that defense can't stop the run. I really thought they'd look much better.
Byes: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
Thursday, October 8, 2009
NFL Week Five Preview
Sunday, October 11th:
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Though the Vikings are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against St. Louis, the Rams have already been shut out twice, and I can only imagine that Jared Allen and the Vikings defense are licking their chops.
My Pick: Vikings -10. Minnesota cruises 27-6.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Cowboys -8
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
Kansas City is the only team in the NFL that has played 4 games and not yet beaten the spread (Carolina had a bye in week 3). Dallas can't be thrilled with its performance in the last 3 games and really needs to put something together. Though the home team has won the last 6 meetings in this series, I don't expect the Chiefs' home field advantage to mean much after a 3-5 year ATS at home last season. And KC isn't far from Dallas, so you have to figure there will be a few Cowboys fans in town for the game. Dallas has played 6 straight October road Overs, and if there are a lot of points on the board Dallas should win by plenty.
My Pick: Cowboys -8. Dallas wins 34-20.
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3.5
O/U: 37.5
The Redskins are 7-1 SU against the Panthers all-time, but can you trust the Redskins' offense to score enough points to win in Carolina? This is only Carolina's second home contest of the year, and last season they were 5-1-2 ATS at home. Washington, on the other hand, has only beaten the spread once this year, but it was in their only other game as an underdog. These two teams are 3-0-1 Under the last four times they've played and Carolina has hit the under 5 of the last 6 times they have come out of the bye week. A low scoring game favors the Skins.
My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Carolina wins 13-12.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14.5
O/U: 43
The biggest spread of the season to this point! The Under is 7-3 the last 10 times these teams have met, Philly has hit the Under 9 straight times after a bye, and the Under is 11-2-1 the last 14 times Philly has been a favorite of more than 8. So can Philly hit the under and still cover 14.5 points? Also keep in mind that the Bucs are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 against the Iggles. They shouldn't win, and it probably shouldn't be close, but I can't give anybody that many points.
My Pick: Buccaneers +14.5. Eagles still win big 27-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6
O/U: 40.5
The Browns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC East and seem to have gotten a little better with Anderson at the helm. These teams played on Monday Night last year in a game won by Cleveland and I don't see it going much differently this year.
My Pick: Browns +6. Cleveland notches win #1 20-16.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -8.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
This should be an easy choice, but I am still unsure what to make of the Bengals. Baltimore was 6-1-1 ATS at home last year, and coming off of a loss I doubt they'll leave anything to chance. The Benglas are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 @BAL and the Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. Cincy also historically struggles ATS in October (3-15-2 last 20) and is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games.
My Pick: Ravens -8.5. Baltimore gets back on track, 30-17.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -15.5
O/U: 38
What is going on with huge spreads this week? It is possible that this spread could be covered, but in a league with such parity I can't bring myself to take this big of a favorite. Oakland is a mess, and without McFadden will struggle, but they're 3-1 @ the Giants since 1980, and you never know what can happen in this league. I would bet on the Raiders being fired up about being such a huge underdog, and they should come out and play a bit better. Keep in mind that the Bengals took the Giants to overtime at home last season despite being huge dogs. I'm hoping that happens again. The questionable health of Eli doesn't hurt my confidence in making this pick, either.
My Pick: Raiders +15.5. Giants win 24-13.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
If the Lions can let the Bears score 48, the Steelers should put up 60. After their performance last week against the Chargers I expect the Steelers' offense to be clicking, and Detroit won't be able to stop them. Detroit has beaten the spread 4 of the past 5 times they've played the Steelers despite losing 4 of those 5 games, but Pittsburgh is 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 October road games. Detroit used to be a team that beat the big spreads (11-2 ATS last 13 games prior to this season as a dog of 8+), but is 0-3 against the big spreads this year.
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Pittsburgh wins 31-20.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5
O/U: 41
It is remarkable to think that the 49ers are favored without Frank Gore against a team that has proven itself to be quite good. Interestingly enough, the Falcons are historically good on the road in October (13-6 ATS last 19), yet have dropped 8 of their last 9 SU and ATS @ San Fran. As a small fave, San Fran generally ends up over (8-2 Over last 10 as fave of 4 or less), yet these two teams have been Under the last 4 meetings they've had in the Bay Area. So all that means is that the trends may as well be thrown out the window, as they're pointing all over the place. After the way San Fran played @MIN, I will give them the benefit of the doubt. I have no idea where their offense is coming from, but as long as it shows up on the scoreboard I don't really care.
My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Francisco wins a good game at home 23-17.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Line: Patriots -3.5
O/U: 41
I am very confident that the Pats, as they continue to get better, will crush the Broncos, as they begin to show that they're not really that good. It pains me that they're 4-0. The Pats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Denver, and Denver hasn't lost against the spread yet this season. Every bone in my body says that the Pats will kill Denver, that Denver is due for a spread loss, and that New England just keeps getting better. Yet I have to stick with my strategy.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Pats win 20-17.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -5.5
O/U: 50
Both teams are better on the road thus far, yet Arizona was such a good home team last season that I have a hard time counting them out. Houston is 7-1 their last 8 games as an underdog and has played every game in its history against the NFC West Over. A high-scoring game favors the Cards, but likely not by too many points. For some reason, though, I am having a hard time jumping off the Cardinals bandwagon that swept me up last year.
My Pick: Cardinals -5.5. Arizona wins 34-27.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: None
O/U: None
When there is no line, I just pick the game straight up. If an official line comes out later, it is judged against the score I have chosen for the game. My guess is that Vegas is hesitant to call this prior to receiving official word on Hasslebeck. He practiced this week, and I expect he'll play. Even if he doesn't, I expect the Seahawks to win. The Jags have won their last 4 October road games SU and ATS, but after somehow knocking off Houtson and Tennessee, their luck has to run out. Seattle was supposed to be good, and is now struggling. San Fran and Arizona are solid teams, and if Seattle hopes to keep their fans happy with a playoff berth, they have to start winning right now.
My Pick: Seahawks Pk. Seattle wins 23-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Colts -3.5
O/U: 45.5
The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against TEN, but with the oddsmakers being careful and only giving 3.5 points, I think Indy should be just fine. Tennessee needs a win, but Indy is playing excellent football right now. The Titans are a mess. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 meetings.
My Pick: Colts -3.5. Tennessee will win eventually, but it won't be this week. Colts win 24-20.
Monday, October 12th:
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 36
Linebuster!
So now it's time for the real test. Can the Jets rebound from their first loss and re-assert their division dominance. The Fins don't have much going for them offensively, yet still put up 38 on the Bills. The Jets, however, are not the Bills. Rex Ryan: Defensive Genius will have his team ready for the run, and they can leave Revis on an island against Ginn, effectively shutting down the passing game. The Jets may not score much, but they shouldn't have to. New York is 14-3-3 ATS in their last 20 against the Fins. Yikes.
My Pick: Jets -1.5. New York marches on with a 23-9 win.
Byes: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Though the Vikings are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against St. Louis, the Rams have already been shut out twice, and I can only imagine that Jared Allen and the Vikings defense are licking their chops.
My Pick: Vikings -10. Minnesota cruises 27-6.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Cowboys -8
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
Kansas City is the only team in the NFL that has played 4 games and not yet beaten the spread (Carolina had a bye in week 3). Dallas can't be thrilled with its performance in the last 3 games and really needs to put something together. Though the home team has won the last 6 meetings in this series, I don't expect the Chiefs' home field advantage to mean much after a 3-5 year ATS at home last season. And KC isn't far from Dallas, so you have to figure there will be a few Cowboys fans in town for the game. Dallas has played 6 straight October road Overs, and if there are a lot of points on the board Dallas should win by plenty.
My Pick: Cowboys -8. Dallas wins 34-20.
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3.5
O/U: 37.5
The Redskins are 7-1 SU against the Panthers all-time, but can you trust the Redskins' offense to score enough points to win in Carolina? This is only Carolina's second home contest of the year, and last season they were 5-1-2 ATS at home. Washington, on the other hand, has only beaten the spread once this year, but it was in their only other game as an underdog. These two teams are 3-0-1 Under the last four times they've played and Carolina has hit the under 5 of the last 6 times they have come out of the bye week. A low scoring game favors the Skins.
My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Carolina wins 13-12.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14.5
O/U: 43
The biggest spread of the season to this point! The Under is 7-3 the last 10 times these teams have met, Philly has hit the Under 9 straight times after a bye, and the Under is 11-2-1 the last 14 times Philly has been a favorite of more than 8. So can Philly hit the under and still cover 14.5 points? Also keep in mind that the Bucs are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 against the Iggles. They shouldn't win, and it probably shouldn't be close, but I can't give anybody that many points.
My Pick: Buccaneers +14.5. Eagles still win big 27-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6
O/U: 40.5
The Browns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC East and seem to have gotten a little better with Anderson at the helm. These teams played on Monday Night last year in a game won by Cleveland and I don't see it going much differently this year.
My Pick: Browns +6. Cleveland notches win #1 20-16.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -8.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
This should be an easy choice, but I am still unsure what to make of the Bengals. Baltimore was 6-1-1 ATS at home last year, and coming off of a loss I doubt they'll leave anything to chance. The Benglas are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 @BAL and the Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. Cincy also historically struggles ATS in October (3-15-2 last 20) and is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games.
My Pick: Ravens -8.5. Baltimore gets back on track, 30-17.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -15.5
O/U: 38
What is going on with huge spreads this week? It is possible that this spread could be covered, but in a league with such parity I can't bring myself to take this big of a favorite. Oakland is a mess, and without McFadden will struggle, but they're 3-1 @ the Giants since 1980, and you never know what can happen in this league. I would bet on the Raiders being fired up about being such a huge underdog, and they should come out and play a bit better. Keep in mind that the Bengals took the Giants to overtime at home last season despite being huge dogs. I'm hoping that happens again. The questionable health of Eli doesn't hurt my confidence in making this pick, either.
My Pick: Raiders +15.5. Giants win 24-13.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
If the Lions can let the Bears score 48, the Steelers should put up 60. After their performance last week against the Chargers I expect the Steelers' offense to be clicking, and Detroit won't be able to stop them. Detroit has beaten the spread 4 of the past 5 times they've played the Steelers despite losing 4 of those 5 games, but Pittsburgh is 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 October road games. Detroit used to be a team that beat the big spreads (11-2 ATS last 13 games prior to this season as a dog of 8+), but is 0-3 against the big spreads this year.
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Pittsburgh wins 31-20.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5
O/U: 41
It is remarkable to think that the 49ers are favored without Frank Gore against a team that has proven itself to be quite good. Interestingly enough, the Falcons are historically good on the road in October (13-6 ATS last 19), yet have dropped 8 of their last 9 SU and ATS @ San Fran. As a small fave, San Fran generally ends up over (8-2 Over last 10 as fave of 4 or less), yet these two teams have been Under the last 4 meetings they've had in the Bay Area. So all that means is that the trends may as well be thrown out the window, as they're pointing all over the place. After the way San Fran played @MIN, I will give them the benefit of the doubt. I have no idea where their offense is coming from, but as long as it shows up on the scoreboard I don't really care.
My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Francisco wins a good game at home 23-17.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Line: Patriots -3.5
O/U: 41
I am very confident that the Pats, as they continue to get better, will crush the Broncos, as they begin to show that they're not really that good. It pains me that they're 4-0. The Pats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Denver, and Denver hasn't lost against the spread yet this season. Every bone in my body says that the Pats will kill Denver, that Denver is due for a spread loss, and that New England just keeps getting better. Yet I have to stick with my strategy.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Pats win 20-17.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -5.5
O/U: 50
Both teams are better on the road thus far, yet Arizona was such a good home team last season that I have a hard time counting them out. Houston is 7-1 their last 8 games as an underdog and has played every game in its history against the NFC West Over. A high-scoring game favors the Cards, but likely not by too many points. For some reason, though, I am having a hard time jumping off the Cardinals bandwagon that swept me up last year.
My Pick: Cardinals -5.5. Arizona wins 34-27.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: None
O/U: None
When there is no line, I just pick the game straight up. If an official line comes out later, it is judged against the score I have chosen for the game. My guess is that Vegas is hesitant to call this prior to receiving official word on Hasslebeck. He practiced this week, and I expect he'll play. Even if he doesn't, I expect the Seahawks to win. The Jags have won their last 4 October road games SU and ATS, but after somehow knocking off Houtson and Tennessee, their luck has to run out. Seattle was supposed to be good, and is now struggling. San Fran and Arizona are solid teams, and if Seattle hopes to keep their fans happy with a playoff berth, they have to start winning right now.
My Pick: Seahawks Pk. Seattle wins 23-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Colts -3.5
O/U: 45.5
The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against TEN, but with the oddsmakers being careful and only giving 3.5 points, I think Indy should be just fine. Tennessee needs a win, but Indy is playing excellent football right now. The Titans are a mess. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 meetings.
My Pick: Colts -3.5. Tennessee will win eventually, but it won't be this week. Colts win 24-20.
Monday, October 12th:
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 36
Linebuster!
So now it's time for the real test. Can the Jets rebound from their first loss and re-assert their division dominance. The Fins don't have much going for them offensively, yet still put up 38 on the Bills. The Jets, however, are not the Bills. Rex Ryan: Defensive Genius will have his team ready for the run, and they can leave Revis on an island against Ginn, effectively shutting down the passing game. The Jets may not score much, but they shouldn't have to. New York is 14-3-3 ATS in their last 20 against the Fins. Yikes.
My Pick: Jets -1.5. New York marches on with a 23-9 win.
Byes: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
NFL Week Four Recap
Overall SU: 42-20 (10-4 wk 4)
Week 4 ATS: 4-10
Overall ATS: 26-36
Week 4 Linebusters: 1-4 (7-13 overall)
So much for picking against the spread. The NFL is simply ridiculous... The Broncos are for real (maybe)... Jacksonville crushes Tennessee... The Bills don't show up at all... The Bears score 48 points... What the hell is going on?
Al Davis Should be Ashamed...
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Raiders +9. Too many points. Texans win 27-20.
Result: Texans 29-6
Houston wasn't winning games at home and hasn't been playing defense anywhere. I know Oakland is bad, but didn't really think they were quite that bad. I hate big spreads.
The Entire State of Tennessee Should be Ashamed...
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee finally wins one. 23-13.
Result: Jaguars 37-17
The Jaguars winning this game would have been embarassing for the Titans. The Jaguars blowing out the Titans should bring about a whole new level of disgust. Now the problem (for me...) is that Tennessee has all the pieces to win games against good teams, so it will be very hard to predict when they will actually pull it together. I'll have a tough time figuring them out the rest of the year.
I Should Have Known Better
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -2
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Ravens +2. Baltimore wins 20-17.
Result: Pats 27-21
I knew the Ravens had to lose at some point, and @NE is as good a time as any. The Pats are still a good team, and I need to be careful not to underestimate them as they will keep getting better as the season moves forward, especially if they add Junior Seau to a defense that is playing pretty well right now anyway.
So it WAS Brady Quinn...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Bengals -5.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bengals -5.5. Can't believe I'm doing this. Cincy 21-13.
Result: Bengals 23-20 (ot)
That was a much better performance by the Browns offense. I'm just curious when we'll find out how good the Bengals really are. Their loss is to a mediocre team and they nearly lost to the Browns, yet their other two wins are against pretty solid teams (GB, PIT).
Still Rollin
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Giants -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -8.5. New York Rolls 27-10.
Result: Giants 27-16
The Giants' average margin of victory is 11, though the two conference games they've played have been squeakers. The Chiefs are bad. It'll be interesting to see if they decide to beat the spread at all this season...
Football Games are 60 Minutes Long, Detroit.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -10
O/U: 39
My Pick: Lions +10. Too many points. Bears win 20-13.
Result: Bears 48-24
After being tied at halftime, I think the Lions just forgot to play the second half. Chicago was in the endzone seconds after the intermission, and Detroit never really mounted any sort of effort to get back in it. You know you're bad when the Bears put up 48 on you...
These Teams are Useless
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 37
My Pick: Bucs +7. Skins still win 14-9.
Result: Skins 16-13
I am getting very sick of the Redskins. Their complete inability to play offense disgusts me. Then again, it could be worse. If I were a Bucs fan, for instance...they can't play O or D!
How Good Are the Colts?
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -10.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Indy -10.5. At home on turf Indy runs it up. 37-20.
Result: Colts 34-17
No doubt Indy was going to win this one, but is this now a team that could win the Super Bowl? They played pretty well without Freeney or Sanders, and with the rest of the AFC South looking pathetic this year, Indy may not be stopped.
Where do They Go From Here?
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 45
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans keeps rolling with a 31-17 win.
Result: Saints 24-10
It will be interesting to see if the Saints keep rolling and if the Jets can regain their footing. I never thought New York would win more than 6 or 7 games this year based on their personnel, yet seeing the way their coach has things running, I think they'll challenge for the division. But they could just as easily turn the other way and start losing. New Orleans looks awfully good, but we'll see what happens when they play some of the better teams in the NFC.
Disgraceful
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -2. Buffalo wins 27-16.
Result: Dolphins 38-10
If you have a good run defense and play a team with no quarterback, shouldn't you hold them under 38 points? The Bills got run over, literally and figuratively. Edwards isn't good enough to take a team to the playoffs. Even with Marshawn Lynch back they only scored 10. Just a terrbile game all around.
Housed
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -9.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Rams +9.5. San Fran still wins 10-6.
Result: 49ers 35-0
The Rams have now been shut out twice. Ouch. My real surprise is that San Fran scored so many points. Though some were scored by the defense, I'm still impressed that the 49ers could do so well without their star running back. If Crabtree signs they should be even better. After watching Minnesota on Monday Night, the 49ers close loss in the Metrodome speaks wonders for how good they really are, and I am now convinced that they are, at worst, a playoff team.
What is the deal here?
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 27-22.
Result: Broncos 17-10
I should never make the Broncos game a linebuster. That's asking for problems. I knew Denver had a good secondary, but was under the impression that every other part of the team was below average. I guess they're not as bad as I thought. Orton is playing competently, Marshall had a great TD catch/run, and the defense held the Cowboys to 10 points. That said, I'm going back to picking the absolute opposite of whatever my gut tells me to pick whenever the Broncos are involved.
Back
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers +6.5. Steelers win 21-17.
Result: Steelers 38-28
Pittsburgh was not happy with 1-2. I should have known they'd go nuts on San Diego. I just thought the Chargers would show up before the 4th quarter.
Favreulous
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Packers +3.5. Vikings win 30-27.
Result: Vikings 30-23
I don't even care about being wrong...that was an awesome game to watch. Favre was outstanding, as was his defense. The Vikes will be around in January. Rodgers didn't quit, and really rallied the team well, but it was too little, too late. The Packers need to figure out that O-line, and they need to do it quickly.
Week 4 ATS: 4-10
Overall ATS: 26-36
Week 4 Linebusters: 1-4 (7-13 overall)
So much for picking against the spread. The NFL is simply ridiculous... The Broncos are for real (maybe)... Jacksonville crushes Tennessee... The Bills don't show up at all... The Bears score 48 points... What the hell is going on?
Al Davis Should be Ashamed...
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Raiders +9. Too many points. Texans win 27-20.
Result: Texans 29-6
Houston wasn't winning games at home and hasn't been playing defense anywhere. I know Oakland is bad, but didn't really think they were quite that bad. I hate big spreads.
The Entire State of Tennessee Should be Ashamed...
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee finally wins one. 23-13.
Result: Jaguars 37-17
The Jaguars winning this game would have been embarassing for the Titans. The Jaguars blowing out the Titans should bring about a whole new level of disgust. Now the problem (for me...) is that Tennessee has all the pieces to win games against good teams, so it will be very hard to predict when they will actually pull it together. I'll have a tough time figuring them out the rest of the year.
I Should Have Known Better
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -2
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Ravens +2. Baltimore wins 20-17.
Result: Pats 27-21
I knew the Ravens had to lose at some point, and @NE is as good a time as any. The Pats are still a good team, and I need to be careful not to underestimate them as they will keep getting better as the season moves forward, especially if they add Junior Seau to a defense that is playing pretty well right now anyway.
So it WAS Brady Quinn...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Bengals -5.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bengals -5.5. Can't believe I'm doing this. Cincy 21-13.
Result: Bengals 23-20 (ot)
That was a much better performance by the Browns offense. I'm just curious when we'll find out how good the Bengals really are. Their loss is to a mediocre team and they nearly lost to the Browns, yet their other two wins are against pretty solid teams (GB, PIT).
Still Rollin
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Giants -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -8.5. New York Rolls 27-10.
Result: Giants 27-16
The Giants' average margin of victory is 11, though the two conference games they've played have been squeakers. The Chiefs are bad. It'll be interesting to see if they decide to beat the spread at all this season...
Football Games are 60 Minutes Long, Detroit.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -10
O/U: 39
My Pick: Lions +10. Too many points. Bears win 20-13.
Result: Bears 48-24
After being tied at halftime, I think the Lions just forgot to play the second half. Chicago was in the endzone seconds after the intermission, and Detroit never really mounted any sort of effort to get back in it. You know you're bad when the Bears put up 48 on you...
These Teams are Useless
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 37
My Pick: Bucs +7. Skins still win 14-9.
Result: Skins 16-13
I am getting very sick of the Redskins. Their complete inability to play offense disgusts me. Then again, it could be worse. If I were a Bucs fan, for instance...they can't play O or D!
How Good Are the Colts?
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -10.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Indy -10.5. At home on turf Indy runs it up. 37-20.
Result: Colts 34-17
No doubt Indy was going to win this one, but is this now a team that could win the Super Bowl? They played pretty well without Freeney or Sanders, and with the rest of the AFC South looking pathetic this year, Indy may not be stopped.
Where do They Go From Here?
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 45
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans keeps rolling with a 31-17 win.
Result: Saints 24-10
It will be interesting to see if the Saints keep rolling and if the Jets can regain their footing. I never thought New York would win more than 6 or 7 games this year based on their personnel, yet seeing the way their coach has things running, I think they'll challenge for the division. But they could just as easily turn the other way and start losing. New Orleans looks awfully good, but we'll see what happens when they play some of the better teams in the NFC.
Disgraceful
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -2. Buffalo wins 27-16.
Result: Dolphins 38-10
If you have a good run defense and play a team with no quarterback, shouldn't you hold them under 38 points? The Bills got run over, literally and figuratively. Edwards isn't good enough to take a team to the playoffs. Even with Marshawn Lynch back they only scored 10. Just a terrbile game all around.
Housed
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -9.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Rams +9.5. San Fran still wins 10-6.
Result: 49ers 35-0
The Rams have now been shut out twice. Ouch. My real surprise is that San Fran scored so many points. Though some were scored by the defense, I'm still impressed that the 49ers could do so well without their star running back. If Crabtree signs they should be even better. After watching Minnesota on Monday Night, the 49ers close loss in the Metrodome speaks wonders for how good they really are, and I am now convinced that they are, at worst, a playoff team.
What is the deal here?
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 27-22.
Result: Broncos 17-10
I should never make the Broncos game a linebuster. That's asking for problems. I knew Denver had a good secondary, but was under the impression that every other part of the team was below average. I guess they're not as bad as I thought. Orton is playing competently, Marshall had a great TD catch/run, and the defense held the Cowboys to 10 points. That said, I'm going back to picking the absolute opposite of whatever my gut tells me to pick whenever the Broncos are involved.
Back
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers +6.5. Steelers win 21-17.
Result: Steelers 38-28
Pittsburgh was not happy with 1-2. I should have known they'd go nuts on San Diego. I just thought the Chargers would show up before the 4th quarter.
Favreulous
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Packers +3.5. Vikings win 30-27.
Result: Vikings 30-23
I don't even care about being wrong...that was an awesome game to watch. Favre was outstanding, as was his defense. The Vikes will be around in January. Rodgers didn't quit, and really rallied the team well, but it was too little, too late. The Packers need to figure out that O-line, and they need to do it quickly.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
NFL Week Four Preview
Sunday, October 4th:
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9
O/U: 42.5
I'm not sure how Houston has earned a 9 point advantage in this one. They've lost both home games so far as a favorite, and though they are 1-3 SU and ATS in four all-time matchups with Oakland, the "1" was last season as a road favorite. Too many things point against the Texans winning a blowout, even though they have to be a bit upset with their play to this point of the season. These teams have never played a game under, so Over is a likely proposition.
My Pick: Raiders +9. Too many points. Texans win 27-20.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
The Titans are 0-3 after starting 10-0 last season, and have to be in panic mode. Jacksonville's awful play last year was supposed to be a fluke, but is starting to look more like a trend. The Titans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 divisional games; Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 against the AFC South, but is 2-0 this season. The Jags are also 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year. After last season's performance as the worst team ATS in the NFL (4-12 overall, 1-7 home), you have to figure the Jags are due for a loss to the spread, especially at home to a desperate team.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee finally wins one. 23-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -2
O/U: 44.5
The Jets defense contained Brady with a similar scheme and inferior personnel. It could be a long day for the Pats. Also consider that the Pats D did a good job last week against the Falcons and is due for a letdown against a solid Baltimore attack. Baltimore may be 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against New England, but now the Ravens have an offense.
My Pick: Ravens +2. Baltimore wins 20-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Bengals -5.5
O/U: 38
The Browns are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 October home games. But with all the craziness surrounding this team, past trends don't apply. The Bengals are hot, having beaten two solid teams in a row, and despite normally struggling ATS in October road games, they are very confident right now. Though they were 1-5 ATS in the AFC North last year, their one spread win was @Cleveland. Had the Browns kept Quinn in, I would take them with the points. But with the offense now trying to rally around Anderson and the entire team questioning its coach, I think the Bengals will get a solid win.
My Pick: Bengals -5.5. Can't believe I'm doing this. Cincy 21-13.
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Giants -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against KC, and there's no reason to think that trend will stop now. Kansas City, despite having a great home atmosphere, struggled ATS at home last season (3-5 as compared to 5-3 away), and really does not have the personnel to beat the Giants. My only concern is that, after going to OT with the Bengals in week 3 last year, you never know when they'll come into a game without proper mental focus. But after a big road win last week, I think the defense will be out to keep its scoreless streak alive, and should have sufficient intensity. The last 3 meetings between these two teams were Under, so I'll go with that as well.
My Pick: Giants -8.5. New York Rolls 27-10.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -10
O/U: 39
So what are the odds that Detroit can put it together two weeks in a row? Though the obvious pick is the Bears at home, Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 trips to Chicago and is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 against the Bears overall. The Bears also have dismal numbers ATS as a favorite of more than 8 (3-9 last 12), while the Lions aren't too bad as a big underdog of 8 or more (11-4 last 15). Now that the Lions have learned how to win, they should be more competitive. And they obviously have a great deal of confidence right now. The wind may also be a factor, limiting how many points the Bears can put up and thus limiting how much seperation they will get.
My Pick: Lions +10. Too many points. Bears win 20-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 37
Not again. For the third week in a row the Skins are favored by at least 6.5 points. I took them to beat the spread the first two times and got burned. So do I stick with them in the hope that the trend won't continue, or do I change my strategy? There is no way I would pick the skins to cover this spread if the Bucs weren't starting Josh Johnson at QB. But they are. So now I must consider the possibility that Washington can score enough points against an awful Bucs defense to cover a 7-point spread. I went through this same thought process last week when they played the god-awful Lions' D, and look where it got me. The Skins are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against Tampa at home, but I don't trust their offense. At all. At least the Under is an obvious choice!
My Pick: Bucs +7. Skins still win 14-9.
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -10.5
O/U: 44
No Hasslebeck for Seattle. No Freeney or Bob Sanders for Indy. Do they simply offset? Without Freeney, the pass rush won't get to Wallace as frequently, and he should be able to put up some points. But will the Colts O still put up enough to crush the Seahawks? Indy seemingly gets stronger each week, and I doubt the Seahawks will win. Seattle has struggled on the road in October (4-15 ATS last 19), so I think I'll take Indy. I just hope I don't get shafted by a garbage-time Seattle touchdown. When Seattle is a big underdog, the Over is usually a safe bet (9-2 last11).
My Pick: Indy -10.5. At home on turf Indy runs it up. 37-20.
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 45
The Jets have been great defensively. I expect Marques Colston to be completely shut down by Darrelle Revis, who is becoming the league's premier cornerback. But how low can the high-flying Saints be held? The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Jets. Neither team is as good as they think they are. The Saints are 3-0 with 3 blowout wins and the Jets are a grinding, hard-nosed football team. A quick look at the Jets depth chart was all I needed to pick this one. Every starting player in the Jets secondary is listed as questionable; 2 of the 4 were limited in Wednesday's practice, 2 of the 4 didn't practice at all. You don't contain the Saints with a banged up secondary.
Saints -7. New Orleans keeps rolling with a 31-17 win.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
I am very tempted to pick the Dolphins. I can see the Bills underestimating Miami due to Pennington's absence. The reason I'm sticking with my Bills, however, is because they were able to totally shut down Cadillac Williams when the Bucs came to town, and if they can shut down Miami's ground game, they'll coast to an easy win. The Bills are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against Miami, and the Fins have really struggled ATS at home (2-6 last year, plus 0-1 already this year).
My Pick: Bills -2. Buffalo wins 27-16.
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -9.5
O/U: 37
The Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against San Fran and are only 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NFC West matchups, but 9 1/2 points seems like a big margin for a team playing without its all-star tailback. I'm not sure the 49ers can beat a D-I college team by 9 points with Shaun Hill at QB and Glen Coffee and Michael Robinson at RB.
My Pick: Rams +9.5. San Fran still wins 10-6.
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Broncos are very overrated. They have a decent secondary, but even without Felix Jones I think the Cowboys will handle them easily. The Cowboys are 2-5 SU in their last 7 against the Broncos, but I'm just throwing that out there for your benefit. I need no stats to make this pick. My disclaimer: If I'm wrong, I need to go back to my strategy of always picking Broncos games directly against my gut feeling. Even when the pick makes total sense. The past 5 meetings were played Over, so I'll go with the trend.
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 27-22.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
The Steelers have had good success ATS against the Chargers (8-3 ATS last 11 at home, 9-3 ATS last 12 overall), but I don't think they're scoring enough points right now to blow out the Chargers. San Diego was 2-0 ATS as an underdog last season, including the game against Pittsburgh when they shouldn't have beaten the spread due to a no-time-left Steelers TD, but the refs blew the call and the Steelers only won by a point. If you can't tell, I'm still a bit miffed about that one. It'll be tough to win without LT, but Rivers is an excellent QB, and doesn't have to worry about Polamalu roaming around in the secondary. The Steelers are hungry for a win after a disappointing 1-2 start, but I think it'll be close.
My Pick: Chargers +6.5. Steelers win 21-17.
Monday, October 5th:
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 45
The Packers may screw up some of the easy ones, but they always seem to show up when it matters. Both teams have a lot to prove thanks to the drama surrounding Favre, but I think Brett's the one with the most to prove. The Vkings are 1-5 ATS the last 6 times the Packers have come to town, and Brett was brought in to change that. I think he will, but I'm taking the safe way out due to a spread of 3.5.
My Pick: Packers +3.5. Vikings win 30-27.
Byes: Atlanta, Arizona, Philadelphia, Carolina
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9
O/U: 42.5
I'm not sure how Houston has earned a 9 point advantage in this one. They've lost both home games so far as a favorite, and though they are 1-3 SU and ATS in four all-time matchups with Oakland, the "1" was last season as a road favorite. Too many things point against the Texans winning a blowout, even though they have to be a bit upset with their play to this point of the season. These teams have never played a game under, so Over is a likely proposition.
My Pick: Raiders +9. Too many points. Texans win 27-20.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
The Titans are 0-3 after starting 10-0 last season, and have to be in panic mode. Jacksonville's awful play last year was supposed to be a fluke, but is starting to look more like a trend. The Titans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 divisional games; Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 against the AFC South, but is 2-0 this season. The Jags are also 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year. After last season's performance as the worst team ATS in the NFL (4-12 overall, 1-7 home), you have to figure the Jags are due for a loss to the spread, especially at home to a desperate team.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee finally wins one. 23-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -2
O/U: 44.5
The Jets defense contained Brady with a similar scheme and inferior personnel. It could be a long day for the Pats. Also consider that the Pats D did a good job last week against the Falcons and is due for a letdown against a solid Baltimore attack. Baltimore may be 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against New England, but now the Ravens have an offense.
My Pick: Ravens +2. Baltimore wins 20-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Bengals -5.5
O/U: 38
The Browns are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 October home games. But with all the craziness surrounding this team, past trends don't apply. The Bengals are hot, having beaten two solid teams in a row, and despite normally struggling ATS in October road games, they are very confident right now. Though they were 1-5 ATS in the AFC North last year, their one spread win was @Cleveland. Had the Browns kept Quinn in, I would take them with the points. But with the offense now trying to rally around Anderson and the entire team questioning its coach, I think the Bengals will get a solid win.
My Pick: Bengals -5.5. Can't believe I'm doing this. Cincy 21-13.
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Giants -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against KC, and there's no reason to think that trend will stop now. Kansas City, despite having a great home atmosphere, struggled ATS at home last season (3-5 as compared to 5-3 away), and really does not have the personnel to beat the Giants. My only concern is that, after going to OT with the Bengals in week 3 last year, you never know when they'll come into a game without proper mental focus. But after a big road win last week, I think the defense will be out to keep its scoreless streak alive, and should have sufficient intensity. The last 3 meetings between these two teams were Under, so I'll go with that as well.
My Pick: Giants -8.5. New York Rolls 27-10.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -10
O/U: 39
So what are the odds that Detroit can put it together two weeks in a row? Though the obvious pick is the Bears at home, Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 trips to Chicago and is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 against the Bears overall. The Bears also have dismal numbers ATS as a favorite of more than 8 (3-9 last 12), while the Lions aren't too bad as a big underdog of 8 or more (11-4 last 15). Now that the Lions have learned how to win, they should be more competitive. And they obviously have a great deal of confidence right now. The wind may also be a factor, limiting how many points the Bears can put up and thus limiting how much seperation they will get.
My Pick: Lions +10. Too many points. Bears win 20-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 37
Not again. For the third week in a row the Skins are favored by at least 6.5 points. I took them to beat the spread the first two times and got burned. So do I stick with them in the hope that the trend won't continue, or do I change my strategy? There is no way I would pick the skins to cover this spread if the Bucs weren't starting Josh Johnson at QB. But they are. So now I must consider the possibility that Washington can score enough points against an awful Bucs defense to cover a 7-point spread. I went through this same thought process last week when they played the god-awful Lions' D, and look where it got me. The Skins are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against Tampa at home, but I don't trust their offense. At all. At least the Under is an obvious choice!
My Pick: Bucs +7. Skins still win 14-9.
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -10.5
O/U: 44
No Hasslebeck for Seattle. No Freeney or Bob Sanders for Indy. Do they simply offset? Without Freeney, the pass rush won't get to Wallace as frequently, and he should be able to put up some points. But will the Colts O still put up enough to crush the Seahawks? Indy seemingly gets stronger each week, and I doubt the Seahawks will win. Seattle has struggled on the road in October (4-15 ATS last 19), so I think I'll take Indy. I just hope I don't get shafted by a garbage-time Seattle touchdown. When Seattle is a big underdog, the Over is usually a safe bet (9-2 last11).
My Pick: Indy -10.5. At home on turf Indy runs it up. 37-20.
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 45
The Jets have been great defensively. I expect Marques Colston to be completely shut down by Darrelle Revis, who is becoming the league's premier cornerback. But how low can the high-flying Saints be held? The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Jets. Neither team is as good as they think they are. The Saints are 3-0 with 3 blowout wins and the Jets are a grinding, hard-nosed football team. A quick look at the Jets depth chart was all I needed to pick this one. Every starting player in the Jets secondary is listed as questionable; 2 of the 4 were limited in Wednesday's practice, 2 of the 4 didn't practice at all. You don't contain the Saints with a banged up secondary.
Saints -7. New Orleans keeps rolling with a 31-17 win.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
I am very tempted to pick the Dolphins. I can see the Bills underestimating Miami due to Pennington's absence. The reason I'm sticking with my Bills, however, is because they were able to totally shut down Cadillac Williams when the Bucs came to town, and if they can shut down Miami's ground game, they'll coast to an easy win. The Bills are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against Miami, and the Fins have really struggled ATS at home (2-6 last year, plus 0-1 already this year).
My Pick: Bills -2. Buffalo wins 27-16.
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -9.5
O/U: 37
The Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against San Fran and are only 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NFC West matchups, but 9 1/2 points seems like a big margin for a team playing without its all-star tailback. I'm not sure the 49ers can beat a D-I college team by 9 points with Shaun Hill at QB and Glen Coffee and Michael Robinson at RB.
My Pick: Rams +9.5. San Fran still wins 10-6.
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Broncos are very overrated. They have a decent secondary, but even without Felix Jones I think the Cowboys will handle them easily. The Cowboys are 2-5 SU in their last 7 against the Broncos, but I'm just throwing that out there for your benefit. I need no stats to make this pick. My disclaimer: If I'm wrong, I need to go back to my strategy of always picking Broncos games directly against my gut feeling. Even when the pick makes total sense. The past 5 meetings were played Over, so I'll go with the trend.
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 27-22.
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
The Steelers have had good success ATS against the Chargers (8-3 ATS last 11 at home, 9-3 ATS last 12 overall), but I don't think they're scoring enough points right now to blow out the Chargers. San Diego was 2-0 ATS as an underdog last season, including the game against Pittsburgh when they shouldn't have beaten the spread due to a no-time-left Steelers TD, but the refs blew the call and the Steelers only won by a point. If you can't tell, I'm still a bit miffed about that one. It'll be tough to win without LT, but Rivers is an excellent QB, and doesn't have to worry about Polamalu roaming around in the secondary. The Steelers are hungry for a win after a disappointing 1-2 start, but I think it'll be close.
My Pick: Chargers +6.5. Steelers win 21-17.
Monday, October 5th:
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 45
The Packers may screw up some of the easy ones, but they always seem to show up when it matters. Both teams have a lot to prove thanks to the drama surrounding Favre, but I think Brett's the one with the most to prove. The Vkings are 1-5 ATS the last 6 times the Packers have come to town, and Brett was brought in to change that. I think he will, but I'm taking the safe way out due to a spread of 3.5.
My Pick: Packers +3.5. Vikings win 30-27.
Byes: Atlanta, Arizona, Philadelphia, Carolina
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