NFL Week Four Preview

Sunday, October 4th:

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9
O/U: 42.5
I'm not sure how Houston has earned a 9 point advantage in this one. They've lost both home games so far as a favorite, and though they are 1-3 SU and ATS in four all-time matchups with Oakland, the "1" was last season as a road favorite. Too many things point against the Texans winning a blowout, even though they have to be a bit upset with their play to this point of the season. These teams have never played a game under, so Over is a likely proposition.
My Pick: Raiders +9. Too many points. Texans win 27-20.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
The Titans are 0-3 after starting 10-0 last season, and have to be in panic mode. Jacksonville's awful play last year was supposed to be a fluke, but is starting to look more like a trend. The Titans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 divisional games; Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 against the AFC South, but is 2-0 this season. The Jags are also 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year. After last season's performance as the worst team ATS in the NFL (4-12 overall, 1-7 home), you have to figure the Jags are due for a loss to the spread, especially at home to a desperate team.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee finally wins one. 23-13.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -2
O/U: 44.5
The Jets defense contained Brady with a similar scheme and inferior personnel. It could be a long day for the Pats. Also consider that the Pats D did a good job last week against the Falcons and is due for a letdown against a solid Baltimore attack. Baltimore may be 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against New England, but now the Ravens have an offense.
My Pick: Ravens +2. Baltimore wins 20-17.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Bengals -5.5
O/U: 38
The Browns are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 October home games. But with all the craziness surrounding this team, past trends don't apply. The Bengals are hot, having beaten two solid teams in a row, and despite normally struggling ATS in October road games, they are very confident right now. Though they were 1-5 ATS in the AFC North last year, their one spread win was @Cleveland. Had the Browns kept Quinn in, I would take them with the points. But with the offense now trying to rally around Anderson and the entire team questioning its coach, I think the Bengals will get a solid win.
My Pick: Bengals -5.5. Can't believe I'm doing this. Cincy 21-13.

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Giants -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against KC, and there's no reason to think that trend will stop now. Kansas City, despite having a great home atmosphere, struggled ATS at home last season (3-5 as compared to 5-3 away), and really does not have the personnel to beat the Giants. My only concern is that, after going to OT with the Bengals in week 3 last year, you never know when they'll come into a game without proper mental focus. But after a big road win last week, I think the defense will be out to keep its scoreless streak alive, and should have sufficient intensity. The last 3 meetings between these two teams were Under, so I'll go with that as well.
My Pick: Giants -8.5. New York Rolls 27-10.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -10
O/U: 39
So what are the odds that Detroit can put it together two weeks in a row? Though the obvious pick is the Bears at home, Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 trips to Chicago and is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 against the Bears overall. The Bears also have dismal numbers ATS as a favorite of more than 8 (3-9 last 12), while the Lions aren't too bad as a big underdog of 8 or more (11-4 last 15). Now that the Lions have learned how to win, they should be more competitive. And they obviously have a great deal of confidence right now. The wind may also be a factor, limiting how many points the Bears can put up and thus limiting how much seperation they will get.
My Pick: Lions +10. Too many points. Bears win 20-13.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 37
Not again. For the third week in a row the Skins are favored by at least 6.5 points. I took them to beat the spread the first two times and got burned. So do I stick with them in the hope that the trend won't continue, or do I change my strategy? There is no way I would pick the skins to cover this spread if the Bucs weren't starting Josh Johnson at QB. But they are. So now I must consider the possibility that Washington can score enough points against an awful Bucs defense to cover a 7-point spread. I went through this same thought process last week when they played the god-awful Lions' D, and look where it got me. The Skins are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against Tampa at home, but I don't trust their offense. At all. At least the Under is an obvious choice!
My Pick: Bucs +7. Skins still win 14-9.

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -10.5
O/U: 44
No Hasslebeck for Seattle. No Freeney or Bob Sanders for Indy. Do they simply offset? Without Freeney, the pass rush won't get to Wallace as frequently, and he should be able to put up some points. But will the Colts O still put up enough to crush the Seahawks? Indy seemingly gets stronger each week, and I doubt the Seahawks will win. Seattle has struggled on the road in October (4-15 ATS last 19), so I think I'll take Indy. I just hope I don't get shafted by a garbage-time Seattle touchdown. When Seattle is a big underdog, the Over is usually a safe bet (9-2 last11).
My Pick: Indy -10.5. At home on turf Indy runs it up. 37-20.

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 45
The Jets have been great defensively. I expect Marques Colston to be completely shut down by Darrelle Revis, who is becoming the league's premier cornerback. But how low can the high-flying Saints be held? The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Jets. Neither team is as good as they think they are. The Saints are 3-0 with 3 blowout wins and the Jets are a grinding, hard-nosed football team. A quick look at the Jets depth chart was all I needed to pick this one. Every starting player in the Jets secondary is listed as questionable; 2 of the 4 were limited in Wednesday's practice, 2 of the 4 didn't practice at all. You don't contain the Saints with a banged up secondary.
Saints -7. New Orleans keeps rolling with a 31-17 win.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
I am very tempted to pick the Dolphins. I can see the Bills underestimating Miami due to Pennington's absence. The reason I'm sticking with my Bills, however, is because they were able to totally shut down Cadillac Williams when the Bucs came to town, and if they can shut down Miami's ground game, they'll coast to an easy win. The Bills are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against Miami, and the Fins have really struggled ATS at home (2-6 last year, plus 0-1 already this year).
My Pick: Bills -2. Buffalo wins 27-16.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -9.5
O/U: 37
The Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against San Fran and are only 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NFC West matchups, but 9 1/2 points seems like a big margin for a team playing without its all-star tailback. I'm not sure the 49ers can beat a D-I college team by 9 points with Shaun Hill at QB and Glen Coffee and Michael Robinson at RB.
My Pick: Rams +9.5. San Fran still wins 10-6.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Broncos are very overrated. They have a decent secondary, but even without Felix Jones I think the Cowboys will handle them easily. The Cowboys are 2-5 SU in their last 7 against the Broncos, but I'm just throwing that out there for your benefit. I need no stats to make this pick. My disclaimer: If I'm wrong, I need to go back to my strategy of always picking Broncos games directly against my gut feeling. Even when the pick makes total sense. The past 5 meetings were played Over, so I'll go with the trend.
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 27-22.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
The Steelers have had good success ATS against the Chargers (8-3 ATS last 11 at home, 9-3 ATS last 12 overall), but I don't think they're scoring enough points right now to blow out the Chargers. San Diego was 2-0 ATS as an underdog last season, including the game against Pittsburgh when they shouldn't have beaten the spread due to a no-time-left Steelers TD, but the refs blew the call and the Steelers only won by a point. If you can't tell, I'm still a bit miffed about that one. It'll be tough to win without LT, but Rivers is an excellent QB, and doesn't have to worry about Polamalu roaming around in the secondary. The Steelers are hungry for a win after a disappointing 1-2 start, but I think it'll be close.
My Pick: Chargers +6.5. Steelers win 21-17.

Monday, October 5th:

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 45
The Packers may screw up some of the easy ones, but they always seem to show up when it matters. Both teams have a lot to prove thanks to the drama surrounding Favre, but I think Brett's the one with the most to prove. The Vkings are 1-5 ATS the last 6 times the Packers have come to town, and Brett was brought in to change that. I think he will, but I'm taking the safe way out due to a spread of 3.5.
My Pick: Packers +3.5. Vikings win 30-27.

Byes: Atlanta, Arizona, Philadelphia, Carolina