NFL Week Seven Preview

Sunday, October 25th:

San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44
This one's a no-brainer. Houston has been up and down all season (thus far every ATS win has been followed by an ATS loss), and San Fran is a physically dominating team, coming off a bye week and pissed off that Atlanta made them look like fools. This one shouldn't even be close.
My Pick: 49ers +3. San Fran wins big 27-17.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5
O/U: 44
San Diego is only 3-9 in their last 12 games as a favorite, but they're in dire straits right now. KC has a good ATS home record against San Diego (8-3-1 last 12), but won't be able to contain the Bolts if they play well. Now that they know Denver is for real, San Diego desperately needs wins, and they won't be playing around.
My Pick: Chargers -5. San Diego wins 30-13.

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Packers -7
O/U: 41.5
Green Bay failed miserably in their first attempt to beat an AFC North opponent, and Cleveland has been getting better. They've beaten the spread the past 3 weeks. The Packers have followed every spread win thus far with an ATS loss, but for some reason I think they match up well enough against Cleveland to take care of business.
My Pick: Packers -7. Green Bay 30-21.

Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Colts -13
O/U: 45
The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Indy. And that's about all they have going for them. Indy is coming off a bye and playing on turf despite being on the road. Indy won't be held down, and I'm not sure St. Louis will score.
My Pick: Colts -13. Indianapolis in a blowout 38-10.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Patriots -14.5
O/U: 45
The long trip to London may slow down the Patriot offense, but the Bucs defense certainly won't. It's an awfully big spread, but the Bucs are awful. I almost feel bad that, with the season they're having, they have to go all the way to London to get demolished by the Pats.
My Pick: Patriots -14.5. New England comes back with a 40-20 win.

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 45
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 pre-bye-week home games, and I expect that trend to continue. Though I do feel this is the week the Vikings will finally fall, I don't think it will be by 5 points. And the odds of the Vikings either losing by less than 5 or winning are FAR higher than the odds that they'll be blown out.
My Pick: Vikings +5. Steelers still win 23-21.

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 36.5
Normally I would pick the Bills to cover this without hesitating, but they now have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and Harvard Sucks. With no offense and the Panthers likely making a concerted effort to get the ball to Steve Smith after this past week's comments, the Bills are in trouble.
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins 23-10.

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 34.5
The Jets are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last 8 October road games, and despite a 3-3 ATS record, the Raiders are awful. They did show signs of life last week against Philly, but the Eagles played a terrible game and likely would have lost to anyone. My problem is that the Jets are struggling, and seem to have hit a wall. Now they've got to go all the way across the country to play a team that can surprise people at home.
My Pick: Raiders +6. New York escapes with a 13-10 win.

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 47.5
Are the oddsmakers nuts? I'm not saying that the Cowboys, coming off a bye, have no shot to win by 4, but there is no way that there's a 50% chance that it will happen. The Falcons have won outright 7 of the 9 times they've been an underdog in Dallas, and even though Dallas is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games after a bye, I'm not sure the extra week will help them against a solid, confident Atlanta team.
My Pick: Falcons +4. Atlanta wins outright 24-20.

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 47
I'm not sure how the Saints D will handle the wildcat, but I'm pretty sure that the Dolphin D can't handle the Saints O. Though Miami is 2-1 ATS at home thus far, they were 2-6 ATS at home all of last year. If the Saints are good enough to make the mighty Giants look foolish, they shouldn't be surprised in Miami.
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-27.

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 41.5
This pick is going to be totally trend-based, because it really could go either way. The road team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings in the series, so we'll pick solely based on that, with a little help from the fact that Cincy is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 October home games. Neither team is consistent enough for me to make a merit-based selection.
My Pick: Bears +1. Chicago wins 21-20.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 46
Despite a cross-country road win earlier in the year, I still don't trust the Cards when they have to play on the East Coast. The Giants are pissed about last week, and they'll be taking out their frustrations on the Cards. This is all but a sure thing.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York crushes the Cards 34-14.

Monday, October 26th:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 37.5
Philly is usually a somewhat streaky team, and after last week's performance, they'll either come out and destroy the Skins, or they'll try too hard and play like crap again. The Skins keep beating the spread as a dog, so we'll assume they can do it again. Plus they're 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against Philly.
My Pick: Skins +7. Philadelphia still wins 16-10.