NFL Week Six Recap

Overall SU: 59-31 (7-7 wk 6)
Week 6 ATS: 9-5
Overall ATS: 42-48

What do we Make of these teams?
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Texans +4.5. Cincy wins 27-24.
Result: Texans 28-17
The Bengals could legitimately be 6-0 right now. They should have beaten the Broncos, and have no excuse for losing to the Texans at home. Houston has a couple of big road wins now, but seems to have trouble pulling it all together at home. At 3-3, they look destined for another 8-8 record.

NFC Power Shift
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Giants +3. New York wins outright 24-23.
Result: Saints 48-27
This game should make it much easier for everyone to plan out their NFC power rankings for week 7. There is no question that the re-vamped Saints defense has made them the class of the conference. We'll see how they perform down the stretch, but they could easily be a Super Bowl contender.

Shutout by the Pack?
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -13
O/U: 48
My Pick: Packers -13. Green Bay Rolls 33-17.
Result: Packers 26-0
The Packers defense isn't good enough to shut people out. Which shows just how bad the Lions offense is without Stafford and Johnson.

Are the Browns Getting Better?
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -14
O/U: 38
My Pick: Steelers -14. Pittsbugh wins 27-6.
Result: Steelers 27-14
This is the type of game that kills me. A blowout that still doesn't result in a cover. The Browns kept it relatively close, which either speaks to their positive progress or to the Steelers lack thereof. Since one of the Browns' TDs was a kick return, I'd say their offense still has some work to do. And yes, that is the understatement of the year.

Isn't Zorn an Offensive Guy?
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Chiefs +6.5. Washington remains unbeaten at home, 13-10.
Result: Chiefs 14-6
How can Zorn, a former QB and offensive guy, head such an atrocious offense? You'd think a guy who used to be a great QB would know the difference between an NFL quarterback and Jason Campbell. And switching to Todd Collins isn't going to help. The Skins need a trade. Jeff Garcia's still out there...

The Last Horse Finally Crosses the Finish Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 40
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina beats the spread for the first time with a 28-20 victory.
Result: Panthers 28-21
Carolina was the last remaining team without an ATS win this year. Thanks to the debacle that is the 2009 Bucs, they are winless no more. I am a bit surprised that Steve Smith didn't get anything going against a team that is so susceptible to the big play, though.

These teams are awful...
St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Jaguars -9.5. The Jags take out their frustration on the lowly Rams 30-10.
Result: Jags 23-20 (ot)
I should have known better than to assume that an awful team could blow out another awful team. My bad.

The Comeback
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens +2.5. Baltimore wins outright 20-16.
Result: Vikings 33-31
The Vikings had this game well in-hand, but allowed the Ravens to come all the way back. They did the same thing against the Packers earlier this season. If they're going to be a legit contender, they have to work on putting teams away. The Ravens are a very dangerous 3-3 team, and with the Bengals also falling this week, the AFC North could be a nice tight race all the way to the finish.

???
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Eagles -14. Philly embarasses the Raiders 37-10.
Result: Raiders 13-9
Not sure what to say here. The Eagles didn't show up. Period. Now the question is "when will the offensive slump end?". I've seen them do this before, and you never can tell when they'll snap out of it.

I'm a Traitor to my own Beliefs
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle proves they're better than we think with a 31-24 win.
Result: Cards 27-3
In the preseason, I never once wavered on two of my opinions: That the Cards were the best team in the NFC West by a mile, and that the Seahawks would be better, but still not good enough to make a difference. Somehow that all changed before week 6. I should have known better than to count the Cards out. After a slow start, they are back to being a dangerous team that, if they show up, can beat almost anybody.

Disgraceful
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Pats -9.5. New England wins 31-13.
Result: Pats 59-0
Tennessee has to be ashamed of themselves. An NFL-best 13-3 last year, they're now 0-6. We always hear the great worst-to-first stories, but rarely do we notice a great fall like that of this year's Titans. The Pats shouldn't have run up the score, but Belichick has Brady as his fantasy QB, so he needed to pad the stats.

Gotta know your Jets!
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -9.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bills +9.5. Jets still win 24-17.
Result: Bills 16-13 (ot)
Yes, it's disgusting that the Bills won this game with Fitzpatrick at QB. But I was right. The Jets loss to the Saints DID send them into a tailspin. They DO seem destined to fall toward the bottom of the division, where everyone expected them to be before the year started. And with Kris Jenkins out for the year, they're going to be even worse against the run from here on out. Oh well. Sorry Jets. You had three good weeks...

NFC Challenger?
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta continues to impress with a 31-21 win.
Result: Falcons 21-14
Can Atlanta challenge New Orleans and Minnesota in the NFC? They are playing awfully well right now. When the Saints and Falcons finally meet we should get a better picture of how the NFC South will shake out. A Falcons loss could mean that the Saints will roll to an easy division title.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your 6-0 Denver Broncos?
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Denver Wins outright 21-20.
Result: Broncos 34-23
Nobody has a better second-half defense than the Broncos. They allowed only 3 points to a San Diego team that, to be honest, looked nearly unstoppable on a few of their first-half drives. And this was on the heels of 4 straight games in which they'd allowed ZERO second-half points. Wow. Talk about a confident team that knows how to close. San Diego finds themselves in a hole once again. They crawled out of it last year, barely making the postseason. They will likely have to go 8-3 or better down the stretch to get a wild card, as Denver looks like a near-sure-thing to win the West.