NFL Week Three Recap

Overall SU: 32-16 (11-5 wk 3)
Week 3 ATS: 7-9
Overall ATS: 22-26
Week 3 Linebusters: 3-2 (6-9 overall)

So Much for Parity
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore Cruises to 3-0 with a 34-13 win.
Result: Ravens 34-3
I was close, but apparently Cleveland is even worse than I thought. Yikes.

Bucs Have Issues
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Giants -7. New York gets the road win 23-9.
Result: Giants 24-0
Again close, but the Bucs O is even worse than I thought. Again Yikes.

Kolb Coming Out Party?
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Chiefs +9.5. Philly still wins at home 20-17.
Result: Eagles 34-14
I thought the Eagles' O would suffer with Kolb at the helm. Guess not. The Chiefs are bad, but will beat the spread a few times this year. It's all about guessing when they do "the impossible". Didn't happen in week 3. Damn.

Really?
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Redskins -6.5. I hate to do this again...but it's the Lions. Washington 23-10.
Result: Lions 19-14
Haven't written the Lions in a results column since 2007! Honestly, I almost picked the Lions to win outright, but couldn't bring myself to do it. Had I looked at it as picking the Redskins to lose, however, I might have called this one. Stupid Redskins. What a waste of a decent defense. You'd think if the offense could get anything going it would be against Detroit. It's going to be a long year.

Inconsistency in Houston
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston wins at home 27-21.
Result: Jaguars 31-24
Really Houston? Come on. You just beat the Titans in a shootout, and now you can't get past the Jags at home? Maybe they just can't win at home! One thing this game tells me: Indy has as good a shot as anyone to pull off 16-0!

Brett is now a true Viking
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 40
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota wins at home 17-9.
Result: Vikings 27-24
Sometimes it is worth being wrong to see a play like the one Favre made with 2 seconds left. Nice catch, too, but to elude the pass rush and get that ball into the back of the endzone with perfect timing...truly a Favreian Feat. And how did the 49ers get 24 points without Gore? Singletary's team doesn't have an ounce of quit in them.

Damn Pats
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -4
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Falcons +4. I'm sick of the Pats disappointing me. I think they'll win 24-21.
Result: Pats 26-10
I am now 0-3 on games involving the Pats. They underperformed the first two weeks, and then somehow held the Falcons to 10 points. I'm sure I'll pick against them again next week...until they show me the "unstoppable" Pats of old, I can't trust them. Plus they blew it against the Jets' D, which is basically the Ravens D...and this week they get the Actual Ravens' D.

Titans/Oilers?
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Titans +3. Tennessee wins outright 13-6.
Result: Jets 24-17
So do I get credit for this one since the Titans technically did win? Had I known the New York Titans would be playing the Houston Oilers, I'm sure I would have chosen differently. Back to real life: The Titans are playing poorly right now, and are destined to have a very disappointing season. The loss to the Texans is the one that must really hurt, as Rex Ryan: Defensive Genius has his team playing spirited football. Based on the roster, I thought the Jets would be the worst team in the AFC East. Right now, they're the best. Sanchez played great on the first 2 series of the game, but will need to sustain that level of play if the Jets are going to win tough games later in the season. As he matures this team could get even better.

Pack still has question marks
Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Packers -6.5. The Packers don't blow it. They win 27-13.
Result: Packers 36-17
The Packers had it all-but-wrapped-up, but then allowed St. Louis to get back into the game. Thankfully they were able to pull away again, but the Packers will struggle if they can't even sustain a solid effort against a team as bad as the Rams.

Winning with a Letdown
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 53
Linebuster!
My Pick: Saints -5.5. New Orleans 41-31.
Result: Saints 27-7
Nice to see that the Saints could win and cover despite an offensive letdown. We'll see what happens next week against the Jets...it could be very interesting!

Way too Close
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Bears -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bears -2. Chicago wins 20-13.
Result: Bears 25-19
The Bears were losing late in the game and needed to put together a scoring drive to get back ahead. Against Seneca Wallace? Come on Chicago. Urlacher's injury is bound to hurt, but the rest of the defense needs to hold down the fort. Especially when they're playing a Seahawks team led by Seneca Wallace.

INTs Killed me this week...
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Fins +6. Miami wins outright 20-17.
Result: Chargers 23-13
The late interception thrown by Henne (returned for a TD) shafted me on this spread, but it was really the loss of Pennington that caused this game to end up the way it did. Miami will struggle without him.

Woohoo! I got a Broncos Game RIGHT!
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Oakland -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Broncos +1. Denver wins 17-13.
Result: Broncos 23-3
So the Broncos are 3-0 and have beaten the spread all 3 times. What is the NFL coming to? Now their schedule gets tougher, but early season confidence may propel them to actually surprising a decent team or two down the road.

What the F$%&?
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -4
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers -4. Pittsburgh in a landslide 28-13.
Result: Bengals 23-20
If you predicted this, you're lying. Polamalu's loss hurts, but the offense just didn't score enough points. Ben has to pull it together and get a few extra points on the board to help that defense. I incorrectly downgraded the Bengals after their week one home loss to Denver; they're playing solid football. Now the problem becomes overestimating their abilities.

The Peyton Show
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts +2.5. Indy wins a shootout 34-31.
Result: Colts 31-10
So it turned out a little more one-sided than I thought. At least Peyton has the Colts playing well. When his offense gets some time with the football, the defense can stay rested and perform at a very high level, even without the influential Bob Sanders. Arizona is having issues at home this year, which is the opposite of what happened last year, making them far more difficult to predict.

Go (Home) DelHomme
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9
O/U: 46
Panthers +9. Cowboys still win it 31-23.
Result: Cowboys 21-7
Freaking Panthers. They were ahead at the half, close all game, and then Delhomme tried to force one to Steve Smith and it was picked off and taken to the house. No way the Cowboys should have beaten that spread. It is very hard to predict a team (CAR...) that turns the ball over so much, because you never know how bad it will get in a given game.