NFL Week Two Preview

Sunday, September 20th:

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 42.5
This is a tough game to call. The Panthers were awful in week one and are likely to bounce back. The Falcons played well in week one at home, and showed that their defense can really shut teams down. Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS in their past four against the Falcons, who are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 division games. The key to this game is that I think the oddsmakers are overestimating the Falcons and underestimating the Panthers based on week one performances.
My Pick: Panthers +6. Atlanta still wins 20-16.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -9.5
O/U: 37
The Rams got shutout by a mediocre defense in week one, and the Skins are one of the better defenses in the NFL. It won't be pretty. This game boils down to whether or not the Skins can score enough points to cover. Washington failed to cover as a home favorite against the Rams last season, but I don't think that will happen again. As for points, every trend suggests the under.
My Pick: Skins -9.5. Washington wins 17-6.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
Both teams have been great against the spread within the division lately. Tennessee has a longer run (12-3 ATS last 15 vs. AFC South), though the Texans 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 division games is pretty good too. Head to Head, the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Texans, and the Over has come up 7 of the past 9 times these teams have met. This time around the Texans have a lot to prove coming off of a disappointing loss to the Jets, and the Titans played well against the Steelers and seem to be on track for another solid season. The key to this one is the Texans running game. Steve Slaton must be a large part of the offense for the Texans to stay with the Titans. Tennessee has a great run defense, and if the Jets can hold him down, so can the Titans.
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Seems like a lot to cover, but I'm going Titans 27-17.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 46
This is another tough game to call, despite what many of you may be thinking. No Donovan doesn't mean no chance for the Eagles. Their secondary intercepted 5 passes last week, which may mean that they are a decent match for New Orleans' very strong pass game. Though these teams have played their last 4 games over the spread, I wonder if that will be the case this time around. With Donovan likley out, the defense knows it must step up and be very good. Kolb is fighting to keep his spot as #2 QB when Vick gets inserted into the lineup next week, and with a little bit of experience relieving McNabb in the past, he may be sufficient to get the job done. The Eagles are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and went 6-2 ATS at home last year. Even though New Orleans was good against the spread last season, they weren't quite as good on the road.
My Pick: Eagles +1. They are playing at home. Their defense is good. Philly 24-23.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
This one should be an easy call. The Pats are much better than they looked last week and Sanchez will have to deal with New York media and fan pressure. The Jets haven't beaten the spread in their last 10 home games against New England and haven't beaten the spread in an AFC East game at home in their last 7 tries.
My Pick: Pats -3.5. New England Rolls 27-10.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -3
O/U: 38.5
Linebuster!
Believe it or not, the Chiefs were worse ATS at home last year than they were on the road. Despite having won 8 of their past 10 against the Raiders, they are not a very good football team right now, and I'm not sure what type of mindset they are in. Oakland is coming off a tough late loss to the Chargers on Monday Night, and despite the short week I'd expect them to have a newfound confidence after playing well against a team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. If you prefer the O/U, the Under is 7-1 in the last 8 games between these teams.
My Pick: Raiders +3. Oakland wins 13-10.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -3
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
The Cards cannot play on the East Coast. They got crushed every time they came east last season, are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 September road games, and after losing at home to the 49ers they're in no condition to win on the road. The Jags are 2-0 ATS against the Cardinals in their only two meetings, and just finsished doing a good job defensively against a very good passing attack in Indianapolis. So you have to figure they can handle the Cards' offense. Despite the Jags being 1-7 ATS as a favorite and 1-7 ATS at home last season, I'd be very surprised if this game doesn't go as planned.
My Pick: Jags -3. Jacksonville dominates at home 23-10.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -9
O/U: 42
The Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the Packers, but are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against the NFC North and went 4-0 ATS against the tough NFC East last season. The spread seems to be a bit large, but Green Bay's secondary is excellent, and that new 3-4 defense worked out pretty well against the Bears. The Packers also have enough talent offensively to put up big numbers against the Bengals D. A tough pick, but I don't think Chad Ochocinco can rally the troops enough to cover. If you want to go under, it has come up in each of the last 3 games between these two teams, though I think there will be a bit more offense in this one.
My Pick: Packers -9. Green Bay wins at home 27-13.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 45
Every trend is telling me to take the Lions, and I think I'm going to go against them all. Detroit is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 8 or more, and after losing ATS last week the odds say they should beat the spread this time around. The Lions are 4-0 ATS yet 0-4 SU in their last 4 division games. Minnesota was 1-5 ATS within the division last year. The key to this one is that the Lions can't stop AP and Brett Favre, and if they pick one poison, the other will kill them. The Vikes may have been bad ATS last year, but not with Brett at the helm. I know I am going over the top on the "Vikings are Gods" thing this year, and I know I'll get bitten by them at some point, but this game looks pretty cut and dry.
My Pick: Vikings -10. Vikings leave Ford Field with a 31-13 win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -4.5
O/U: 42
Buffalo looked solid, but will there be a hangover after a devastating loss like that? Tampa Bay is a running team, and Buffalo's D should be able to hold them down. The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the Bucs and are 0-4 in their last 4 against the NFC South, but those games against the Bucs were against a very good defense that is no longer in place.
My Pick: Bills -4.5. I have to go with my Bills 23-17.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
A 1-point spread is basically a pick-em, and common sense suggests that the Seahawks will win. They are a much better team, just shut out the Rams, and should be able to play well on the road. They're also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the 49ers. The under is 5-1 in San Fran's last 6 September home games, though the Over is 7-2 the past 9 times the 49ers have been a 4-point favorite or less, so I have to lean in that direction.
My Pick: Seahawks +1. Can't believe I get the Seahawks with Points! 24-21 Seattle.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
This will be a great game. Chicago has lost its last 3 meetings with the Steelers, though there aren't many other trends to look at between the two. The only other is that although Pittsburgh was 5-3 ATS on the road last year, they were 1-2 as a road favorite. So I'll have to take this game at face value. Both have great defenses, but which would I trust more? A Polamalu-less Steeler D or an Urlacher-less Bears D?
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh has too much for Chicago 20-10.

Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 40
Baltimore is good as an underdog (8-4 ATS last 12) and San Diego is bad as a favorite (2-6 ATS last 8), but the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to San Diego. Without LT, however, can the Chargers do anything offensively? Baltimore's D was great their first time out. If you prefer to pick the O/U, 5 of the last 6 games between these two have been played under.
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-14.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Line: Denver -3
O/U: 39
The Browns have never beaten the Broncos (0-4), and Denver is 12-1 in their last 13 September home games. I very badly want to pick the Browns, but I'm not sure what to expect. Quinn won't go nuts on a solid Denver secondary, but can aging Jamal Lewis do some damage? And will Cleveland's defense hold the Broncos O? Denver is 3-12-1 ATS the last 16 times they've been a favorite of 4 or less, was 1-6-1 ATS at home last season, and didn't cover a single time that they were a home favorite last season.
My Pick: Browns +3. Cleveland wins outright 17-13.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
The Giants were 3-1 ATS as an underdog last season, and were one of the league's best teams against the spread overall (12-4). Dallas was only 4-4 ATS as a home favorite and was 2-4 ATS within the division, but one of their 2 division ATS wins was at home against the Giants. The only solid trend suggests the Under, which is 8-2 the last 10 Giants games vs. the NFC East and is 11-4 the last 15 times the Giants have traveled to Dallas. New York has enough D to get it done, but do they have enough offense, espcially down one wide receiver with Hakeem Nicks out 2-3 weeks with a foot injury?
My Pick: Cowboys -2.5. I hate to pick the Cowboys, but I will. Dallas 20-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 42
The Colts are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against Miami and will be without Bob Sanders again this week. Miami was 2-6 ATS at home last year, but their only 2 ATS home wins were as an underdog. The over is 9-3 the last twelve times these former AFC East rivals have played in Miami, and it should be a safe bet again. This is a tough pick, especially with Miami coming off a loss, but I cannot, in good conscience, pick Miami to beat the Colts anywhere on planet earth.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-23.