Overall: 10-6
Overall SU: 14-2
Linebusters: 2-3
A very successful opening week for me, although I will obviously need to re-examine the way I choose linebuster games. Stupid Bills. If they were going to spoil the spread for me, you'd think they could have at least won!
Champs are Back!
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Titans +6. Tennessee will cover, but they'll still lose 24-20.
Result: Steelers 13-10
In retrospect, I have no idea why I would suggest the over in a game between two defensive, run-minded teams, but the pick itself was pretty clear. Everyone who says the Titans aren't "for real" this year needs to keep in mind that the Titans feed off of that negative energy and play as hard as any team in the NFL because the players always feel they need to work twice as hard to earn the respect of the media and fans. Don't underestimate Tennessee. At least not until the postseason...
Falcons Show Their Talons
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -4
O/U: 43
My Pick: Falcons -4. Atlanta wins big at home 31-21.
Result: Falcons 19-7
The big surprise in this one was the Falcons' defensive effort. If they play well, the Falcons could win that division.
The Ravens Have an Offense?
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore rolls 31-10.
Result: Ravens 38-24
Next time it won't be the Chiefs playing defense, so we'll see if Baltimore really has 38 points per game worth of offense, but their defense was quite good. How so you ask? KC's first 7 points were scored on a blocked punt recovery in the end zone. The next 7 were due to a 70-yard interception return that gave KC the ball on the 6 yard line. The next 3 were from a 50+ yard field goal. Their final 7 were scored late in the game when Baltimore already had things wrapped up. They allowed 29 total rush yards and under 200 pass yards. So don't look at the score and say Baltimore was shaky on D against KC. If they can put up a ton of points with any frequency, they'll be a true contender in the AFC.
Hanging Chad
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4
O/U: 43
Bengals -4. Cincinnati starts things off right, 26-19.
Result: Broncos 12-7
Chad Ochocinco's prediction of a 12-win season for the Bengals isn't looking good. Maybe he thought the question was "how many losses will the Bengals have in '09?" Cincy really did get screwed in this one, however. Down 6-0 late in the game, Palmer mounted a nice long drive puctuated by a Benson touchdown run with under 1 minute left. Then Cincy got burned by an 81-yard touchdown pass. I guess Orton can throw downfield! This turn of events means nothing to me, though, as I wouldn't have been correct on the spread anyway.
AP Reports that AP is Good
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Vikings -4
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings -4. Vikings roll 27-12.
Result: Vikings 34-20
Brett Favre wasn't spectacular, but completing 66% of his passes when Adrian Peterson is unstoppable will certainly win football games for the Vikings. And that is all Minnesota needs; a serviceable QB to run the game and provide a legitimate pass option so that defenses can't just stack up the box to shut down AP. Favre is that and more. Which is why I think the Vikes are legit this year. Cleveland has the personnel to be much better than they were against the run, and they'll need to be if they're going to be any good. Solid offensive effort, though, against a tough Minny D.
Colts in a Squeaker
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Jaguars +7. Too many points. Colts win 27-22.
Result: Colts 14-12
I'm surprised at Indy's second consecutive offensive slow start, which last year was blamed on Peyton's absence during the preseason. Jacksonville will be better this year, especially with a healthy defense, but Indy should have put up more points. If you're wondering why this game was close, look no further than the turnover battle. Jacksonville held onto the football; Indy turned it over twice. Those turnovers took away at least 10 points from the Colts, as both occurred deep in Jacksonville territory.
Got Defense?
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13
O/U: 49
My Pick: Lions +13. New Orleans squeaks by 31-29.
Result: Saints 45-27
I gave Detroit's linebacker corps too much credit, and forgot that Drew Brees likes to pile on points at home. At least the over was an easy call.
No TO Needed
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Cowboys -6
O/U: 39
My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins big 30-6.
Result: Cowboys 34-21
So is Cadillac Williams going to be as good as I always thought he would be, or is the Dallas defense susceptible to the run? If it is the former, the Bucs could be decent this season, especially if Leftwich proves to be a solid passer. Too bad the defense isn't what it used to be.
Cinderella Loses Slippers, Pants, Shirt, and Title
New York Jets @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Jets +4.5. Jets win outright 20-17.
Result: Jets 24-7
The team everyone thinks will be Cincerella never is. It's that simple. The real story here is Rex Ryan:Defensive Genius. He moves over from Baltimore, his first shot at head coaching, and immediately shows off a VERY good defense. The Jets weren't terrible stoppers last year, but to hold Steve Slaton to 17 yards rushing and to shut out the Texans completely...in THEIR BUILDING? Nice job Rex Ryan:Defensive Genius. You've earned yourself a nickname.
So Much for Domination at Home
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Eagles -1
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Eagles -1. Philly is too good, and gets things started properly, 30-17.
Result: Eagles 38-10
A big win, but at what cost? McNabb will be a game-time decision this week, and I'd be willing to bet that he'll at least be sore for a long time. Then again, McNabb has played with pain nearly his entire career, so he's used to it, and ultimately I don't think it will affect the team. (Unless they lose this week with Kolb in at QB...) Also of note, the Eagles don't seem to miss Brian Dawkins. 5 INTs without him pretty much shows that. On the other side, Carolina's 7 turnovers disgusts me, and makes me think I could be right on the nose in saying that I doubt DelHomme's ability to put together another superb season. We'll see, but the Falcons and Saints looked good, and the Bucs looked decent, so if Carolina is reeling, it will be a tough year.
Clipped Wings
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -6.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -6.5. Arizona rolls 34-10.
Result: 49ers 20-16
Damn. I was looking forward to the Cards being good again (and making picks in the NFC West easy...), but I guess they're not quite back to super bowl form. Warner hasn't been particularly consistent through his career, so a down season is not only possible, but likely. He threw for decent yardage Sunday, but also tossed 2 picks. At least Leinart was able to learn from a veteran prior to being thrust into the starting role, which could happen sooner rather than later if the Cards struggle. San Francisco played well, and the 49ers are not a team to overlook; Singletary has them playing very hard and with a great deal of pride. Assuming Frank Gore rushes for more than 30 yards per game the rest of the year (though he did have 2 TDs...), the 49ers could keep surprising people.
Seahawk D Pitches Shutout (against the Rams, though, so it doesn't count...)
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -8.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Seahawks -8.5. Seattle gets started right with a 27-10 victory.
Result: Seahawks 28-0
So the Seahawks ARE for real. I wasn't sure about the defense, but I guess I am now. And if you weren't sure about St. Louis being worse than last year, you should be by now.
Giants win D vs. D. Can they handle a shootout?
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Giants -6.5. Giants win 17-6.
Result: Giants 23-17
I waffled on this pick 5 times, eventually settling the wrong way because I thought the Giants D would crush the Skins O. They didn't. In fact, yardage numbers from both teams were very similar, making one wonder if the Giants O is much better than the Skins O. Both teams have great defenses, but can they put up enough points?
NFC North Pecking Order Established
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Packers -3.5. Green Bay wins 24-20.
Result: Packers 21-15
A great game between two solid teams. Both will be good, both will challenge for the division. What happens when these teams play Minnesota will tell the tale of how things ultimately shape up in the NFC North.
This Must Be What Cubs Fans Feel Like
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -10.5. Gotta go against my team. NE is too strong for Buffalo. 31-17.
Result: Pats 25-24
Frickin Leodis McKelvin. In case you haven't heard, his house in Hamburg, NY (outside of Buffalo) was vandalized. They spray painted the final score on his lawn. I find this hilarious. Why wouldn't you just go down? You're wrapped up, ahead, trying to get the offense on the field to kill clock, and you're fighting for half a yard? FALL ON THE DAMN GROUND. Idiot. We did learn some things from this game, however. The Bills could be better than expected, unless this loss hangs over their heads the rest of the year. The Pats may not be a Super Bowl lock, as their defense wasn't stellar and their offense didn't figure things out until the 4th quarter. In any case, as a Bills fan, I'm used to them screwing me on the spread and still losing the game. It's their own cute little way of saying "F-you".
Still Underwhelming
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers -9. San Diego gets off to a fast start, 23-13.
Result: Chargers 24-20
Oakland surprised me. I didn't expect their rushing duo of McFadden and Bush to be quite so good, but they looked solid. As for San Diego? The usual. Everyone expects them to be great, they struggle against a questionable opponent in week one, suffer a major loss due to injury, and end up winning the division at 8-8 or 9-7. Without LT, things will be tough, but he's not out all year, so maybe they still have a shot to be an elite team. Phillip Rivers is great, and has weapons he likes, so maybe they'll do Ok. See? I'm already talking myself into taking them against spreads I shouldn't...
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