A little discourse worked out well last week, so JC's opinions will once again appear on the blog wherever applicable.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line:Saints -13.5
O/U: 44.5
The Saints have shown the grit of a champion through 3 weeks of the season, but all 3 games have been close. One could argue that they'll come out flying after a tough-to-swallow loss to Atlanta, but Carolina hasn't won a game yet, and will be out for blood as well.
The loss of Bush and Thomas will severely hamper their run game, and Carolina's defense is traditionally solid against the pass. I'm not sure Carolina has the pieces to win, but I certainly don't think they'll get blown out.
Trends: Carolina is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against New Orleans. The Under is 9-2 in these teams' last 11 matchups.
My Pick: Panthers +13.5. New Orleans wins 23-13.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Seahawks -1
O/U: 40
I'm tempted to pick the Rams, simply because the Seahawks are a totally different team on the road than they are at home. Then again, do I really think the Rams are good enough to win two games in a row? Umm...no. No I do not.
Trends: Seattle is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to St. Louis. They're 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups overall.
My Pick: Seahawks -1. Seattle wins 17-13.
NEW YORK JETS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 36.5
Can the Bills offense do ANYTHING against the Jets' D? A solid trio of quick running backs could give New York a little trouble, but I'm not sure if the Bills' defense will be able to keep them in the game long enough for the running backs to wear down the Kris Jenkins-less Jets rush defense.
Sanchez has had a couple of good games in a row, and I think he might be due for a letdown. Throw in the fact that the Bills are at home and you can see why I want to pick them to beat the spread.
Trends: New York is 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October home games.
JC picks the Jets to beat the spread knowing full well that no matter what pick I make, the Bills are bound to let me down.
My Pick: Bills +5. New York wins 14-13.
DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -14.5
O/U: 45.5
Green Bay isn't pleased to have lost on Monday Night, and I guarantee they'll play a more disciplined game this week. Then again, they're playing on short rest, without Ryan Grant, and with a crappy O-line against a solid Lions defensive line. Will Detroit win? Heck no, especially given Jahvid Best's questionable status. But I think they can keep it closer than 14.
Trends: The Lions are 4-13-2 ATS (0-19 SU) in their last 19 trips to GB. Green Bay is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NFC North games.
My Pick: Lions +14.5. Green Bay wins 27-13.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -1
O/U: 34.5
I could analyze this game inside and out, but it all boils down to one simple fact - the Steelers are NOT going to go 4-0 without Ben Roethlisberger.
If you need further convincing, the Ravens are very good, should be able to move the ball against the Steelers' D, and should be able to pressure Charlie Batch into showing exactly why he's the 4th-string QB in Pittsburgh.
Trends: The Over is 8-1-1 in Baltimore's last 10 trips to Pittsburgh. The Steelers have played Over in 10 of their last 13 October home games.
JC doesn't trust the Ravens right now. He also thinks that if Hillis can run all over the Ravens, so can Mendenhall. He takes the Steelers to win and cover.
My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 17-13.
DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 43
Tennessee looks pretty good right now. Young is playing with confidence, and nobody can stop CJ. Their defense is more than good enough to hold down Denver, and they're playing at home. I see no reason the Titans won't be able to pull off at least a 7 point win.
Trends: Denver is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC South. The past 6 meetings between these teams were all played Over.
JC takes the Broncos to win outright, as he doesn't trust the Titans and thinks the Broncos look good.
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee wins 31-20.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -7
O/U: 42.5
I was on the 49ers bandwagon, but have abruptly fallen off. Singletary has such a strong personality that I assumed his team would respond to its rough start. It hasn't.
Atlanta just beat the Saints, and looks quite good. San Fran has to travel all the way across the country, which tends to take some of the fire out of western teams. I can see this being a close game, though, especially after the 49ers kept it close against its previous NFC South opponent. Then again, the 49ers were just blown out by the Chiefs.
Trends: The 49ers are 0-12 SU, 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 October road games. The Falcons have played 6 staright Overs against the NFC West.
My Pick: 49ers +7. Atlanta still wins 23-21.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 37.5
Many analysts think that the Browns are a good bet in this game, given the Bengals' offensive struggles. They kept it close against Baltimore last week, and Peyton Hillis had a fantastic game. I'm not sold on the Bengals, but they've had great success within the division over the past 2 seasons. And the Browns aren't very good.
Trends: The Bengals are 9-2 SU in their last 11 against Cleveland. The Under is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings between these teams.
JC thinks Cleveland will ride Peyton Hillis to their first victory.
My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-13.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 46
Indy is looking quite good right now, and Jacksonville is struggling. I don't see the Jags having any chance, even at home.
Trends: The Colts are 10-2 SU in their last 12 October road games. The Jaguars are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games against Indy.
My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-17.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 43
I'm tempted to take the Raiders, given their proclivity for playing up to the competition. The problem is that the Raiders, as underdogs of only 3 points, would pretty much need to win to beat the spread. I don't see that happening, especially with the Texans coming off a loss. Oakland has the league's second-best pass defense, but is only 24th against the run, and the Texans have had a lot of success on the ground with Arian Foster.
I can see the Raiders winning, but picking them for a fourth week in a row would be absolutely insane.
Trends: The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 October road games. The Raiders are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 against Houston.
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-20.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 42.5
The Redskins had a terrible game last week. They're bound to rebound against Philly, especially given the added emotion provided by Donovan's return to Philly. The Eagles have been playing well, but McNabb may be able to provide some extra insight into the Eagles' gameplan. I still don't trust Philly, and I think the Skins will be riding high on emotion after being disappointed the past two weeks.
Trends: The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Philly.
As a Philly fan, JC takes the Eagles. And thinks the Cheer:Boo ratio for McNabb will be 70:30 pregame, 0:100 for the rest of the game. I say 40:60 pregame.
My Pick: Redskins +5.5. Washington wins outright 23-17.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 45.5
The Chargers had a disappointing loss in week 1 and responded with a blowout win over the Jags. Another disappointing loss to Seattle should have them ready to come out strong and roll over the Cards.
Trends: The road team has covered in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home against the Cards.
JC thinks the Chargers will win, but won't cover.
My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls 34-14.
CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -3.5
O/U: 44
The Giants looked really bad against the Titans; the Bears beat everyone's trendy Super Bowl pick, the Green Bay Packers. So logic would suggest that the Bears should win this game. I'm not sold, however. The Bears don't look as good as their results suggest. Green Bay beat themselves, and the Cowboys played horrible in week two. I think the Giants' D line will get to Cutler, Forte will be ineffective, and the Giants will get back on track.
Trends: The past four meetings between these teams in New York have been played Over. The road team has won seven straight meetings.
My Pick: Giants -3.5. New York wins 27-21.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Pats -1
O/U: 46.5
This is a very interesting matchup. The AFC East race is bound to be interesting, and with the top three teams meeting one another from weeks 2-4, we should have a good idea of how things will play out hereafter. The Dolphins' run game should have some success against the Pats, but Brady and the Pats will likely be able to move the ball against the Fins as well. I think the Pats' experience (and a slightly better defense) will make the difference.
Trends: The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October road games. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Pats.
My Pick: Pats -1. New England wins 31-28.
Byes: DAL, KC, MIN, TB
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