Another NFL season is upon us, and with it comes the excitement of a clean slate.
Will the Saints rise to the top again this season, or will parity once again reign in the NFC South? Can any of the league's worst teams make a remarkable turnaround and push toward the postseason?
Was 2009 a fluke, or can Brett Favre put up MVP-type numbers yet again?
I'm not going to offer full preseason picks this year, as I felt they may have swayed some of my decisions last season. Instead, I'll pose a few "big picture" predictions.
1. The Saints will be very good again, and will become the first team in division history to win the NFC South in consecutive years.
2. Favre won't be as good, but may still lead the Vikings to the NFC title game or beyond. He's not the only player on that team, in case you hadn't noticed.
3. My Bills will be among the 3 worst teams in football, will not make the playoffs, and will extend the NFL's longest current playoff drought. Boo.
4. Trent Edwards still isn't good enough. I would take any of the other 31 opening day starters over Edwards.
5. Matt Moore will be a viable option in Carolina, though the team may still miss the playoffs.
6. Kevin Kolb is not going to be as good as McNabb. Not even close.
7. The Redskins will be decent. The Raiders will be decent. The Lions will be decent.
Now for week one's picks...keep in mind that I was correct STRAIGHT UP over 66% of the time last year. So if you have a buddy who will bet with you straight up, you might be well served to take my advice.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 9TH
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
LINE: Saints -4.5
O/U: 48
This is the perfect way to start the NFL season. We get to see if last year's champs are back in top form, and we get to see if Brett Favre will finally start to play his age.
I think the Saints will come out of the gates hungry to show that they are a force to be reckoned with once again, and I worry that Favre won't be as good as he was last year.
It may sound crazy after all that the hall of fame QB has done in his career, but I once again feel as if he needs to prove himself to me before I put any confidence in his abilities.
If you look at Favre's stats, last year was a huge statistical anomaly. Maybe he's more comfortable. Maybe he's "older and wiser", and making better decisions. Or maybe he had one good year. The question marks for the Vikings, including the loss of Sidney Rice for the first few games and the trouble Percy Harvin has been having with migraines, make this an easy pick. The Saints are at home for the first time since winning it all. The intensity will be off the charts. Saints fans will be amped up. And the Vikings have a 40-year-old QB with a blown tire.
Trends: Minny is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against New Orleans. The Over has gone 8-1-1 in the two teams' last ten head-to-head matchups.
My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans by a touchdown at home, 31-24.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 12TH
ATLANTA FALCONS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
LINE: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 38
Another outstanding week one matchup. Pittsburgh is without Big Ben, but will still be a darn good team. And all subtracting Big Ben does is lead to uncertainty.
Leftwich and Dixon are both viable options, and could lead the team capably in Ben's absence. Or they could struggle and give away a game entirely.
Atlanta should contend for a playoff spot, especially if everyone stays healthy. I'm talking to you, Michael Turner.
I'd bet on Turner having a big year, especially if Matt Ryan continues to make solid decisions. Analysts always say that a strong run game can open up the pass.
In this case, the Falcons' passing threat may help open up a few extra lanes for Michael Turner, rather than allowing the defense to solely key on him.
Polamalu should be back and ready to play, shoring up the Steelers defense against both the run and the pass. Pittsburgh has the all-around talent to make the Super Bowl, but we'll have to see if they execute well enough to make that happen. I don't expect any miraces from the Steelers' offense in the first four weeks, but the defense will keep them in games, and I expect this one to be close. In the end, the difference maker for me is that Pittsburgh has been well aware of its QB situation for quite some time. They know they need to step up, and have had plenty of time to get Dixon and Leftwich the reps they needed with the first-team offense.
If preparation alone isn't enough to make me think the Steelers will cover, I have to consider that Pittsburgh is a home underdog to a non-playoff team in week one.
A tough-nosed team like the Steelers won't take kindly to such an insult.
Trends: Atlanta has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 openers and that Pittsburgh has played to the Over in 7 of its past 9 week one games. I'm going against both.
My Pick: Steelers +2.5. Pittsburgh wins its home opener 18-17.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 40.5
The Raiders are a much improved team, and will win quite a few games this season. The trick is figuring out which ones! Tennessee could be anywhere from great to awful, though mediocre sounds about right.
I worry that the Titans don't have enough options to scare defenses away from simply keying on Chris Johnson on every single down, and in today's NFL, a one man team wins nothing. The defense should be solid, but I certainly don't think they're a Super Bowl contender. Then again, I didn't think much of them in '08 either, when they were insanely good, mostly because of their dominant D.
Jason Campbell is a much better option than Russell ever was in Oakland, and if McFadden comes into his own this season, Oakland could finish second in the AFC West. They've also got a very capable defense with a tremendous front four and one of the league's best cover corners in Nnamdi Asomugha. Will they win the Super Bowl? Hell no. But they're good enough to get more respect than a spread of 6.5 @ Tennessee.
Trends: Oakland has played 7 straight week one road Overs. Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 openers.
My Pick: Raiders +6.5. I can't believe I'm betting on the Raiders. Oakland wins outright, 24-20.
DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -6
O/U: 43
Chicago's defense is healthy again. That oughta scare the NFC North. The Bears have always prided themselves on great defense, and they've got a great set of linebackers, have added an insanely good pass rusher, and could (key word: COULD) be one of the best defensive units in the league. Of course, we'll have to wait and see how they perform. Their quarterback has plenty of talent, but can Mike Martz's system be the answer to all of Cutler's troubles? Will Knox, Hester, or Aromashodu step up to make the big plays the Bears will need to contend in a stacked division? And can Matt Forte produce yet again?
Though many questions surround the Bears, it seems as though even more follow the Lions. Detroit should be better, but in such a solid division, how much room for improvement is there?
Can Stafford move to elite quarterback status? Will he be protected enough to have the chance? Can the defense, which looks stellar on paper, play together, and with pride, to keep the Lions in games when the offense struggles?
Though questions surround both teams, in the end, the Bears have the talent to potentially stack up against the Packers and Vikings, while the Lions simply don't. They're good, but are young and need a little more time.
Chicago has been good against the Lions lately, is playing at home, and would love to get off to a fast start. Detroit still needs to learn how to win.
Trends: Chicago has won 8 of the last 10 meetings. 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams were played Over.
My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago doesn't blow up the scoreboard, but they handle the Lions O, 16-6.
DENVER BRONCOS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -2.5
O/U: 39.5
Denver got off to a great start last year, and I expect the same from them this season. Brandon Marshall is a talented guy, but was as much a distraction in Denver as he was a playmaker. The loss of Dumervil will hurt the Broncos much more, but I don't see Jacksonville taking advantage of his absence. Bailey may be a bit old, but he's still a phenomenal corner who can shut down Mike Sims-Walker. And if he can't, Brian Dawkins can help out, and the net effect will be the same.
With Sims-Walker out of the picture, Jacksonville will have to focus even more on the running game, and I'm confident that the Broncos can eat up MJD if they're able to stack 7+ in the box every down.
Denver was very confident coming out of training camp last year, and I expect more of the same. Whether they are still good after week 6 is still TBD.
Trends: Jags 9-2 ATS past 11 week 1 games. Broncos have played to the Under in 4 of their last 5 week one road games.
My Pick: Broncos +2.5. Denver wins outright 13-10.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 41
Will the Giants underwhelm in the first regular season game in their opulent new palace? The Giants defense looks to be good again, but I said that last year and it didn't materialize. The defensive line could be one of the best ever, but again, it didn't play that way last season. We'll have to see if they're hungrier in 2010. The offense hasn't changed much, and I expect Brandon Jacobs to have a better year after somewhat underwhelming everyone with his numbers last season.
Carolina may be a bit one-dimensional, as I'm not sure how good Matt Moore will be at QB. His numbers were great in the few starts he had last year, but I still consider him an unproven guy. My bet is that he'll be better than Kolb will be in Philly, but still not good enough to be labeled the next Tom Brady. In week one, I expect a steady dose of the Panthers' two-pronged running attack, which is probably the best in the league. I just wonder if the passing game will scare anyone enough to keep teams from stacking the box and taking the run game off the table.
Trends: Under is 10-2-1 for the past 13 Carolina openers. The Giants are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 September games.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York opens its stadium in style, 27-10.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -3
O/U: 37
The Bucs have plenty of talent, but it's all young talent. It will take some time for them to learn how to win consistently at the NFL level. Cleveland has new leadership in Mike Holmgren, and should be a better football team.
They've got one of the best O-lines in football, but the guy they put behind that line will be the one who decides which direction the Browns will travel. If Delhomme throws the ball to his own team's players, the Browns could be a decent squad.
The Browns have a game-changing special teams player in Josh Cribbs, but the major question is whether or not last year's 31st-ranked defense can greatly improve.
Trends: Neither team has been good ATS in week 1 in recent years: CLE 0-5 last 5, TB 2-7 last 9.
My Pick: Browns +3. Cleveland shows signs of life. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt until they lose it. Which will probably happen before week 2. Browns 23-21.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 38.5
The Bills may come into this game a bit miffed that they're home dogs in week 1. Then again, they are the Bills. I don't expect much from them this season, save for a few highlight reel plays from CJ Spiller. Though I would have rather seen them draft a QB.
Miami is one of the three teams who will compete for the AFC East crown this year, possibly right up until week 17. The Fins, Jets, and Pats are all comparably solid, and any of the three could go very far if they play to their potential.
The Fins got a huge boost to their passing game in Brandon Marshall, which will open up a little extra space for the dual threat running backs, Williams and Brown. Henne is a competent QB, and should be able to get the ball to his playmakers.
The defense needs solid play from some young, unproven guys, but if they get it, this team could go far. I also like the addition of Karlos Dansby, although I worry he'll be the only bright spot for a bottom-tier defense.
Trends: Bills are 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 times they're hosted the Fins. Miami has only beaten the spread once in its last 6 trips to B-Lo.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 24-13.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Colts -2.5
O/U: 46.5
The history between these two teams is pathetically one-sided, but the Texans have slowly been catching up to the Colts, and will certainly prove a challenge this season. Schaub is quickly becoming an elite QB, and he has the weapons to shred nearly any secondary.
The defense is mediocre, but they're young, so I expect them to keep getting better. If Slaton stops putting the ball on the ground and lives up to his potential, they could make a playoff push.
Indy is always good. They're the NFL's model of consistency. Good receivers (Anthony Gonzalez is back...that should help), a hall-of-fame QB, a solid tailback, and a reasonably good defense. It's a combo that has worked very well for many years now.
The Colts seem to win 12 games every season. And they usually start out with a sizeable undefeated streak. They'll be good again, but we'll have to see how Bob Sanders plays to know how good. He's the heart of the defense, and if he's 100%, look out.
Trends: Indy has won 15 of 16 all time meetings. The Over is 9-1 in the teams' last 10 matchups.
My Pick: Colts -2.5. I expect both teams to light up the scoreboard, but the Colts will hang on 31-28.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -4.5
O/U: 45
The Bengals are a legitimately good football team. They have a strong defense, especially against the pass, and have the weapons on offense to blow people out. TO will help to relieve some of Ochocinco's double-teams, and the two will likely co-exist nicely.
I wish they'd throw the ball more, but even with their run first mentality, I think they'll win a lot of games. The problem is, so will the Patriots. New England will rebound from a sub-par year, and should challenge for the division title.
Brady has plenty of weapons on offense, and Belichick could coach St. Mary's school for the blind to a winning record in the NFL. I'm concerned, however, about the defense, and how it will hold up against the league's best offenses.
Cincy surprised some people last year, and won't be flying under the radar this season. I still think they'll give the Pats a run for their money, and am a bit weary of picking a defense I don't trust to hold down a great offense.
Trends: Benglas 8-2 ATS past 10 vs. Pats, but 0-2 in their last 2. Pats 6-1 SU in their last 7 against Cincy.
My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Let's go with the trends! Cincy covers, but doesn't win. Pats 24-20.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: 49ers -2.5
O/U: 37.5
San Francisco could be legitimately GOOD this year. Not just OK; GOOD. Alex Smith is still a question mark, but has been "coached up" very well this offseason, and if he releases the ball as quickly as he has in the preseason, he'll keep himself off the turf.
The defense of a Mike Singletary-coached team is bound to be good, and this is no exception. They play with tenacity and anger, just as you'd expect. Crabtree is a year older and had the benefit of a full training camp this season, so expect him to be much better.
Frank Gore is an elite tailback, not only for his running ability, but also for his ability to pick up blocks on passing plays. This team has all the pieces...in a few years, they may even be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Seattle is in rebuilding mode, and even Pete Carroll can't magically make this team win more than 6 games. There is talent on their roster, but unless a guy like Deion Branch or Julius Jones can really step up and have a career year, I just don't see it being a fun season in Seattle.
Trends: 49ers 5-1-1 ATS in their past 7 week one games. Seattle is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 September home games.
My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Fran rolls 30-13.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Wow. The Packers are favored on the road in Philly to start the season. I guess the oddsmakers don't trust Kolb either! Green Bay is supposed to be really, really good this year. I'm not sold. Yet. I see the potential, but need the proof.
Aaron Rodgers has great numbers, but I have no assurance that the offensive line has made enough improvements to keep him on his feet. I'm not a huge fan of Ryan Grant, and just can't bring myself to count on him playing consistently each week.
The receiving corps is OK, but Driver is old and they don't have a ton of depth. The defense is pretty good, but Al Harris is one of the integral pieces in their pass defense, and with him on the PUP list, I wonder if they'll have a few major breakdowns.
Philly has a good team outside of Kolb, who I just don't think is good enough to be a starting NFL QB. We'll see; maybe I'm wrong. Desean Jackson is a great playmaker, and Lasean McCoy is turning into a very capable back.
The Eagles D was 12th in the league last year, and remains much the same. Given the time they've had to gel together, I expect them to be even better. That said, I'm no idiot. I wasn't at training camp, and the guys who were say the Packers are the real deal.
So for now, until I have reason to believe otherwise, I'll go with the Pack.
Trends: Packers have played Over 8 of last 10 september road games. Eagles have played Under 4 of last 5 week 1 games. Talk about some helpful trends...
My Pick: Packers -2.5 But I think the Eagles will give them a game. Green Bay 24-20.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Cards -4
O/U: 39
I think confidence will be a huge problem for the Cardinals this season on both sides of the ball. They lost a defensive leader in Dansby and the man who was supposed to lead the offense, Matt Leinart. They still have Fitzgerald, but he can't do it himself.
Anderson has fizzled before, and though he beat out Leinart, I'm sure he'll fizzle again. Without much of an identity, and after all of the craziness surrounding their quarterback battle this preseason, I just don't think they'll be very good...Unless they can use San Francisco's resurgence, and the subsequent departure of the media's affection, to arouse their spirit and push them to victory.
St. Louis is rebuilding, but they seem to have found a solid piece to build around in Sam Bradford. He'll make a few big mistakes, but it'll be hard to pick when and where those mistakes will come. He could have a great game and beat the Cards, or he could throw 3 picks and get blown out. Stephen Jackson is a solid back, but I wonder if he'll ever return to the form he found a few years ago. My guess is no.
The Rams were 29th in total offense and defense last season. I think both will improve, but not by much. This is a tough pick, however, as the Cards could completely phone this game in. All told, I think Whisenhunt is a good enough coach to have his boys prepared for the challenge.
Trends: Cards are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against St. Louis. Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 week 1 games. I guess those numbers make this pick a little easier...
My Pick: Cards -4. Arizona wins 17-10.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Cowboys -3.5
O/U: 40.5
Dallas is a trendy pick to reach the Super Bowl to be held in their own stadium, but I still have yet to see Tony Romo mature into a Super Bowl caliber QB. He's good, but not great. He's led his team to the playoffs, but not much further. And the same can be said of his head coach, Wade Phillips.
The Cowboys will again have a very stout defense, but can they put it all together? They have the weapons, but can they develop the positive attitude they need to move to the next level? A recent interview with Romo was very telling. He kept repeating "we need to get better", pretty much no matter what the question was. Through the whole interview he hung his head, and he didn't look to have much confidence in his, or his team's, performance in that preseason game. He came across as a little kid who was having a temper tantrum. Maybe he was just stuck on one or two bad plays. But if I were on that team, I'd want my leader to say either "it's the preseason, we'll be ready to go when the regular season gets here", or "we're getting better". Not "we NEED to get better".
The Redskins are going to be much better, not just because McNabb is their new QB, but also because Mike Shanahan is going to be behind the bench. Shanahan is an elite coach, and I expect an instant turnaround. He's already laid down the law with Haynesworth, and from what I've seen and heard, I think that will help the team more than it will distract them. Santana Moss may be their only elite receiver, but Cooley is a great pass-catching tight end, and the combination of the two of them should suffice until one of the other young receivers can step up to become a legit #2 option for McNabb.
Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson should be an outstanding running back tandem. I think the change in coach and QB will instill in them, and the rest of the team, the confidence needed to play at the elite level required of any NFC East team with playoff aspirations.
My bet is that the Redskins will give the Cowboys a little more than they were expecting at Fedex field in week one.
Trends: Dallas is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games @ Washington. The Redskins have played Under in 6 of their last 7 week one games.
My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Washington covers, but Dallas ekes out a late victory, 17-16.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13TH
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -2
O/U: 36.5
These teams will both be very good, and may end up meeting again later in the season with much more on the line. Baltimore has a fantastic offensive prognosis, but question marks surround the defense. After the Ravens reign as a defensive juggernaut for the last ten years, it's a bit of a strange twist. But the fact that most of the team's issues surround the defense makes me think they'll be very, very good, as I just can't imagine the Ravens defense being anything but dominant. Ed Reed will get healthy. Ray Lewis may be old, but he's mean enough to overcome it. There is enough talent in the Ravens secondary that, assuming they all stay healthy and play up to their potential, they'll be a Super Bowl contender. Ray Rice is a great young talent, and the addition of Anquan Boldin will help Baltimore to stretch the field. It should be another good year in Baltimore.
The Jets seem to be everyone's choice to make the Super Bowl. I love what Rex Ryan has done in NY, and I see great things for the franchise. He's my pick for the best coach in the NFL, from the way he interacts with his players, to the way he inspires confidence, to the way he gets the best out of every man on every down. This Jets team will be good, but can their second-year QB carry them to the promised land? Sanchez has a lot on his shoulders, but he seems to be the type of kid who can handle it. A few other bits and pieces: LT is going to have a big comeback year, Shonn Greene will be good again, and Darrelle Revis will be good, but can he be as effective as he was last season after missing all of camp?
This is a tough matchup for both teams, but now that Revis is back, Rex Ryan should have the edge on his former squad. Harbaugh has offense, but against that Jets D, it may not make much of a difference. Both teams will be amped to play, there will be many big hits and huge defensive stops, and assuming everyone survives, I'm going with the Jets.
Trends: The Ravens are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7 games against the Jets. The Jets have played 4 straight week 1 Unders.
My Pick: Jets -2. New York gets off to a hot start, 20-14.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chargers -5
O/U: 44.5
San Diego will be good again, but the problems with Vincent Jackson won't help. They have a few weapons, but not enough for them to perform consistently on offense without Jackson. I also hesitate to put too much confidence in a team with a rookie tailback (Ryan Mathews), Nanee and Floyd as their starting wideouts (although Floyd could be VERY good), and a defense that can be anywhere from great to serviceable. This Chargers team has had the tendency to play to its competition at times, and often fails to cover spreads that shouldn't be a problem for a team with so much talent. They'll probably win their division, but I don't expect it to be a cakewalk.
The Chiefs are still going to be the last place team in their division, but will surprise a few teams. Cassel is a capable QB, and with Charlie Weis calling plays, the offense will have a few big games. Bowe and Chambers are good wideouts, Jones and Charles are solid tailbacks, and they ought to have a pretty good O-line. But can last year's 30th ranked defense improve enough for Kansas City to be a .500 team or better? I doubt it. Vrabel is a good leader, but is past his prime. Eric Berry has a ton of talent, but is unproven at the NFL level. He may make a few big plays, but I don't expect him to be a consistent game changing DB like Revis, Asomugha, or Reed.
I have no confidence in San Diego right now, and they tend to struggle ATS against Kansas City every now and then. I'm sure they'll prove me wrong at some point and go on a winning streak, but I think KC will be stronger out of the gate than San Diego will expect.
Trends: The Chargers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 AFC West games. Kansas City has played Over in 7 of their last 9 openers.
My Pick: Chiefs +5. San Diego still wins 27-25.
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