NFL Week Four Preview

NYG @ WAS

WAS -3.5

46

This is a tough game to predict, as Eli Manning is the NFL equivalent of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Washington’s defense is strong, and I believe they’ll win the battle up front against the Giants’ mediocre offensive line. Kirk Cousins has been more than capable with the Washington offense, as they’ve scored 41 and 34 points, respectively, with him at the helm. These teams have trended slightly toward the Over and the Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against Washington.

Pick: WAS -3.5. Redskins win 27-23 (Over)

MIA @ OAK

MIA -4

41

Miami’s offense isn’t the same without Knowshon Moreno. Yes, their one win was against New England, but the Pats aren’t playing very well right now. Oakland is bound to win a game at some point, and this might be it. Miami is banged up along the offensive line (and elsewhere) and Oakland has two excellent running backs, both of whom should play on Sunday, which will limit Miami’s time of possession. The game is in London, so you never know how the teams will react to the long flight, but I think the smart money is on the Raiders to cover 4 points. Oakland has lost 9 straight games and is 3-6 ATS in those contests, but has covered their last 2 ATS against AFC East teams. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 but 6-2 ATS in its last 8 against the Raiders. Both teams trend toward the Under, especially on the road.

Pick: OAK +4. The Raiders win outright, 21-16 (Under)

GB @ CHI

GB -1.5

50.5

After how bad the Packers looked last week, this spread is surprising. Then again, Aaron Rodgers and company have high standards for themselves and will be clicking on all cylinders this Sunday against the rival Bears. When all the talk leading into a game is about the teams’ offenses, the defenses frequently step up and play very well. Despite strong Over trends, I think this game will be very close to the posted Total. It’s pretty much a coin flip, but I’ll take the Packers. They’re 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Bears and have been especially effective in Chicago (5-1 ATS last 6). Plus Chicago has only beaten the spread in 1 of its last 9 divisional games.

Pick: GB -1.5. Packers win 28-23 (Over)

BUF @ HOU

HOU -3

40.5

Can Ryan Fitzpatrick carve up his old team? Probably not. That said, I love Houston’s defense; their tackling has been some of the best in the NFL. Both teams are coming off a disappointing loss, but I believe Buffalo has the upper hand. Houston is only 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games and also 2-8 ATS in its last 10 as a favorite. Buffalo’s offense is tough to slow down, and with Arian Foster a little banged up, you never know how effective the Houston offense will be. I also wonder if a small seed of doubt will creep into the Texans’ minds after winning their first two games and losing in week 3. The same occurred in 2013 and Houston didn’t win another game all year!

Pick: BUF +3. Buffalo wins 27-17 (Over)

TEN @ IND

IND -7

46

Tennessee usually gives the Colts problems, and coming off a blowout loss to Cincinnati, I doubt the Titans will be run over for a second consecutive week. The Colts are likely riding high after a dominant win in Jacksonville, but at 1-2 they’re still hungry and will be playing hard. I expect a Colts win, but it won’t come easy. Tennessee is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 but 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. Indy is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 against Tennessee.

Pick: TEN +7. Indy wins 23-17 (Under)

CAR @ BAL

BAL -3.5

41

Baltimore isn’t as good as they’ve been in previous seasons, but Steve Smith has been a welcome addition. I’m sure he’ll play well against his former team. That said, Carolina’s defense is legit. After a tough loss to Pittsburgh they’ll be ready to play; I doubt they’ll drop two in a row to AFC North opponents. This spread is likely a result of injuries to Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert for Carolina. DeAngelo Williams should play, but he’s been out with injury and might not be in game form. On the other side of the ball, however, Baltimore is playing with a short backfield because Ray Rice is an idiot. So I don’t see the run game being strong for either team. That said, it’s the NFL; they’re all professionals. Somebody will step in and do just fine. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North.

Pick: CAR +3.5. Panthers win 21-13 (Under)

DET @ NYJ

DET -1.5

45

Believe it or not, Detroit has the best defense in the NFL right now. The Jets are #2. Both offenses have been solid, too, as Chris Johnson has been helping the Jets achieve offensive balance and Calvin Johnson is virtually unstoppable. Though the Jets have won all 3 meetings since 2001, the Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC East foes and 12-2 ATS in their last 14. While the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, they’re 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against the NFC North.

Pick: DET -1.5. Lions win 24-17 (Under)

TB @ PIT

PIT -7.5

45

Tampa Bay is coming off a long week and an embarrassing blowout loss. There’s no way they’ll get housed by a very mediocre Pittsburgh squad riding high after a solid win in Carolina. Josh McCown is out for the Bucs, but Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy should be back. A banged-up Pittsburgh linebacker corps will have all they can handle with Martin, assuming he’s reasonably fit to play. Tampa has been awful, but I expect them to play competitively against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 matchups with Tampa, but the Bucs are 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 against the AFC North. Both teams have trended Under, but with the defenses banged-up (or in Tampa’s case, just playing horribly), I think the Total will be very close to 45.

Pick: TB +7.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-21 (Under)  

JAX @ SD

SD -13

44.5

The Jaguars can’t be terrible forever, and the infusion of new life into the now Bortles-led offense may be enough to keep this game close. Plus San Diego has won two in a row and may be overconfident, especially with Ryan Mathews still sidelined by injury. Then again, the Jags have a ton of injuries and are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as 8+ point underdogs while San Diego is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 against AFC South opponents.

Pick: SD -13. Chargers win 35-17 (Over)

PHI @ SF

SF -5.5

50.5

The Philly offense continues to wear teams down, and San Francisco’s defense has been getting worn down. That’s not a good combo if you’re a 49ers fan. After two tough losses, however, San Francisco should be ready to play. Yeah, they’re banged up on defense, but their physicality should cause problems for the injury-plagued offensive line of the Eagles. I’ll pick them to win, but 5 ½ is a bit more than I’m comfortable giving. Smart money is on the 49ers to win but not cover. Plus the Eagles have covered the spread in 6 of their last 9 meetings with the 49ers.

Pick: PHI +5.5. San Francisco wins 26-24 (Under)

ATL @ MIN

ATL -3

47

After blowing out the Bucs, the Falcons seem to be back on track. From what I’ve seen in the NFL’s first three weeks, I think Atlanta’s week two loss was simply a testament to how good the Bengals are! Cincy looks outstanding. Minnesota is still without Adrian Peterson and Matt Cassel and Atlanta has three pro bowl-caliber wide receivers. I’m surprised the spread isn’t higher.

Pick: ATL -3. Atlanta rolls 42-17 (Over)

NO @ DAL

NO -3

53

Dallas rarely wins two in a row; three in a row is a virtual impossibility. I’m waiting for the Saints to figure things out, but I’m beginning to worry. Many questions are popping up in New Orleans. Is Drew Brees over the hill? Why isn’t this team gelling? How is their defense this bad after significant offseason upgrades? The Cowboys’ pass defense is a joke; maybe this is the week Brees and company light it up. New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games but 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against Dallas. Both teams have trended toward the Under, but I believe this one will be high-scoring.

Pick: NO -3. Saints roll 42-24 (Over)

NE @ KC

NE -3.5

45

The Pats have been underperforming, but I expect a lot from them under the lights on Monday Night. Kansas City isn’t great and may be overconfident after crushing the Fins in Miami. Kansas City has covered the spread in two consecutive games against AFC East teams but had failed to cover in 9 straight before that. They’re also 3-2 ATS against the Pats, who are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against AFC West foes but only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as road favorites. Both teams trend toward the Over.

Pick: NE -3.5. Patriots win 27-16 (Under)

BYES: CIN, CLE, DEN, STL, ARI, SEA