NFL Week Three Preview

TB @ ATL

ATL -6

45.5

Atlanta should rebound after a terrible performance in Cincinnati. Matt Ryan must be better, and I believe he’s a resilient enough player to get back on track quickly. Tampa’s offense is struggling, and the defense could be without its best player, Gerald McCoy. Even if he plays, he’ll be limited. These teams frequently play each other close, but given the circumstances I believe Atlanta can cover 6. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday night games while Tampa Bay is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 Thursday contests. The Bucs have played 7 of 10 Under on the road.

Pick: ATL -6. Falcons win 31-10 (Under)

SD @ BUF

BUF -2.5

45

Can the Bills really get to 3-0? Their offense is explosive, but the single weak link is still EJ Manuel at quarterback. If San Diego gets to him, they can keep Buffalo’s offense in check. The Bills have an outstanding pass rush, but their run defense is still a bit suspect. With Ryan Mathews injured, Donald Brown will need to have a big game for San Diego to be successful. I’m sure I’ve overthought this, but San Diego needs to come into this game with a run-first mentality so the Bills’ pass rushers can’t get in a rhythm. I don’t think the Chargers will have that mentality with Mathews on the sidelines. If they lean heavily on Donald Brown, this pick will be wrong. If Rivers has to throw the ball 45+ times, I’ll be right on. The Chargers have won 7 of 10 against the Bills but are only 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 of those games. The trends point toward the Under.

Pick: BUF -2.5. Bills win 20-17 (Under)

DAL @ STL

STL -1

44.5

Seriously? The Rams are favored in this game? Wow. Vegas must know something I don’t. The Cowboys have won 4 of 6 against the Rams, and although Dallas frequently has a letdown after a win, this would be more of an epic collapse than a letdown. Dallas trends toward the Under on the road and St. Louis trends Under at home, so I expect it to be relatively low-scoring. Especially for the Rams. Even if Shaun Hill starts. Because he’s still a 3^rd string QB at best.

Pick: DAL +1. The Cowboys win 28-13 (Under)

WAS @ PHI

PHI -6.5

50.5

Washington’s offense seems potent with Kirk Cousins at QB. Then again, that was against the Jaguars. Philadelphia’s offense wore down the Colts just like it had worn down the Jaguars the week before. Can it do the same to Washington? It may be close, but LeSean McCoy and company are good enough to beat the Skins at home despite a 2-5 ATS record in their last 7 against Washington at The Link. Though Philly is 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite, Washington is coming off a blowout win and may be overconfident. Especially without its starting QB.

Pick: PHI -6.5. Eagles win 34-14 (Under)

HOU @ NYG

HOU -2

41

Houston is playing well. New York is playing horrifically. I don’t think it will change in week 3, although I am concerned that Houston won its first two games last year and lost the next 14. Hopefully they don’t start another streak. The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 September games, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 as an underdog, and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against the AFC South. Both teams trend toward the Under.

Pick: HOU -2. Texans win 17-13 (Under)

MIN @ NO

NO -10

49

Adrian Peterson is out. The Saints are 0-2 and playing at home with one of the most talented rosters in the league. Game over. The trends don’t bear this out, as New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 matchups with Minnesota at home, though they’re 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 at home overall. Minnesota has also won 8 of their last 12 against the Saints. Trends point clearly to the Over, which New Orleans may cover on their own.

Pick: NO -10. Saints roll 45-10 (Over)

TEN @ CIN

CIN -7

42.5

Cincinnati looks solid right now, but the Titans are a solid defensive team and should give the Bengals a tough game, especially if AJ Green is forced to sit out. Cincy is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 home games against Tennessee and the Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. Though Cincy has trended over at home lately (5 of 7), the Titans and Bengals have hit the under in 6 of their last 7 meetings.

Pick: TEN +7. Bengals win 20-16 (Under)

BAL @ CLE

BAL -1.5

41

Baltimore begins the season with 3 straight division games? Yikes! The Ravens have won 11 of their last 12 against the Browns, but Cleveland’s offense is rolling right now. They scored 27 and 26 against the Steelers and Saints, respectively. That’s pretty darn good. These teams have played 4 of 5 Under in Cleveland, but I’m not sure the Ravens can hold down the Browns enough to turn this into a defensive battle. If Baltimore is going to win – which the trends suggest they will – it’ll likely be high scoring.

Pick: BAL -1.5. Ravens win 27-24 (Over)

GB @ DET

DET -2.5

53

Vegas is helping me out this week! I’m surprised the Lions are favored. The Packers have been stumbling, but the Lions aren’t a particularly good football team. They crushed the terrible Giants but were completely shut down by a solid Panthers defense. The Packers don’t have anyone who can match up with Calvin Johnson, but neither does anyone else. As long as Green Bay shuts down the rest of the Lions offense and CJ only scores two touchdowns, the Packers should still be ok. That said, if the Lions solid defensive line causes a ton of problems for the Packers already shoddy offensive line, Detroit could pull this out. The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games against Green Bay and the teams have played 4 of their last 5 games in Detroit Under.

Pick: GB +2.5. Packers win 27-21 (Under)

IND @ JAX

IND -7

45

It’s the Jags’ home opener, but I doubt that will matter. Jacksonville may score some points, but Luck – especially coming off a loss – will pick their defense apart. The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against Indy and the teams have played 5 straight Unders. The Colts are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 division games and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.

Pick: IND -7. Colts win 34-14 (Over)

OAK @ NE

NE -14

46.5

This spread is a little too large for me to be comfortable picking the Pats. Teams disrespected by spreads this large often show up in a big way. Oakland has one of the league’s best 1-2 punches at running back and I believe they’ll make life difficult on the Patriots defense. The Pats are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against Oakland and only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a 10+ point favorite. New England has played 5 straight home Overs, but Oakland and New England have played 4 of 6 matchups Under.

Pick: OAK +14. New England wins 31-23 (Over)

SF @ ARI

SF -3

42

While Jonathan Dwyer isn’t a huge on-field loss for the Cardinals, the distraction of his incident could play a role in this week’s game against the 49ers. Not that is has to; Arizona is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 home games against San Francisco and the 49ers have won 9 of their last 10 matchup with the Cards. Plus Carson Palmer is doubtful with a shoulder injury and the 49ers are coming off a disappointing loss. 7 of the last 10 games played between these teams in Arizona have gone Over.

Pick: SF -3. 49ers roll 34-13 (Over)

DEN @ SEA

SEA -5

48.5

Wes Welker is back! Almost every fiber of my being thinks the Broncos have the proper combination of offense and defense to pummel the Seahawks. They’re also still upset after Seattle demolished them in the Super Bowl last season. Thankfully I have a single fiber of rational thought reminding me that picking against Seattle at home is tantamount to putting your hand in a wood chipper. Just freaking stupid. Seattle has covered 6 straight spreads as a favorite of 3.5-7 points, has won 18 of its last 19 home games, and has played 5 of 6 Under at home. Denver is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog but is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 trips to Seattle.  

Pick: DEN +5. Seattle wins 23-20 (Under)

KC @ MIA

MIA -4

42.5

Knowshon Moreno’s loss will be felt by the Dolphins, especially against a solid Chiefs defense that, for the most part, kept Peyton Manning in check last week. I expect a close, low-scoring game. It really could go either way. KC is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 trips to Miami and has played 4 of 5 road games Over. Miami is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home games and has played 5 of 6 Under at home.

Pick: MIA -4. Dolphins win 21-16 (Under)

PIT @ CAR

CAR -3

42

Carolina’s defense is incredibly strong, but how will they play without Greg Hardy? Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing loss, so I expect them to play hard. If Carolina shows any ill effects from the Hardy suspension and subsequent distraction, they’ll lose. Carolina has lost their last 5 matchups to Pittsburgh ATS and has lost 4 of those 5 games. The Panthers have played 6 of 7 Under at home.

Pick: PIT +3. Steelers win 20-13 (Under)

CHI @ NYJ

NYJ -3

45.5

Wait, what? The Bears’ injuries are in the secondary; I doubt that’ll hurt them against Geno Smith and the Jets. I have no idea why Chicago isn’t favored. They’ve won 6 of 8 against the Jets and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups with NY. Chicago has played 9 of 11 Over on the road but 7 of 8 Under against the Jets.

Pick: CHI +3. Bears win 27-23 (Over)