2009-10 Line Preview

Before we take a look at what will no doubt be another wonderful NFL season, we must look to the past for some sage wisdom about the future...

AFC EAST:
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Streaked to 5-1 start, got everyone's hopes up in Buffalo, then crumbled.
Against the Spread: 6-10 overall, 2-6 home 4-4 away
1-3 vs. NFC West, 3-1 vs. AFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 1-5 in AFC East
(only win vs. spread within division @NYJ)
Prediction: I'm still concerned that Trent Edwards is not the answer at QB, but as long as he can get TO the ball 5+ times per game, the Bills should put up better offensive numbers than last year. They'll be better, and will hopefully make the playoffs, as they now have the NFL's longest active playoff drought.

Miami Dolphins: 11-5 in '08, won AFC East, lost to BAL in wildcard round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: Installed wildcat offense...and it worked!
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 2-6 home, 6-2 away
0-4 vs. NFC West, 3-1 vs. AFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 4-2 vs. AFC East (both division ATS losses at home (NYJ, NE))
Prediction: With people getting used to facing the wildcat, the Dolphins won't be surprising too many people.

New York Jets: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Brett Favre
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 3-5 home, 4-4 away
0-4 vs. AFC West, 2-2 vs. NFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 1-0 vs. AFC North, 3-3 vs. AFC East (3-0 away, 0-3 home)
Prediction: Sanchez may be good, but he has no one to throw to, unless they make a move for the Broncos' Brandon Marshall. Even if they make a move, I still think they'll be battling the Dolphins for 3rd in the division.

New England Patriots: 11-5 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Brady injured in week 1
Against the Spread: 9-6-1 overall , 3-4-1 home, 6-2 away
2-2 vs. AFC West, 2-1-1 vs. NFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 4-2 vs. AFC East (Both division ATS losses at home)
Prediction: The Pats are obviously a totally different team with Brady than without, so I'm not sure how much stock I will put in these numbers when it comes time to pick Patriots games. They'll be good, and I'd bet on them winning the division. Don't expect an undefeated year, but depending on how they gel together, this team could go 14-2.

AFC NORTH:
Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 in '08, won AFC North, won Super Bowl.
Big Storyline: Umm...they won the super bowl...
Against the Spread: 9-7 overall, 4-4 home, 5-3 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 2-2 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC East, 0-1 vs. AFC West, 4-2 vs. AFC North (2-1 home, 2-1 away)
Prediction: They will be good again, and should win the division, if not more.

Baltimore Ravens: 11-5 in '08, playoff wildcard, beat MIA and TEN, lost to PIT in AFC Champ.
Big Storyline: Elderly defense combats osteoporosis with bone-jarring hits.
Against the Spread: 12-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 home, 6-2 away
2-1-1 vs. AFC South, 3-1 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 5-1 in AFC North (only ATS loss at home vs. PIT)
Prediction: The Ravens won't be as good defensively due to aging and Rex Ryan's departure, but might be a bit better on offense as Flacco matures as a QB.

Cleveland Browns: 4-12 in '08, missed playoffs, 2nd worst record in AFC.
Big Storyline: The Browns follow up playoff campaign with terrible season.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 3-5 home, 4-4 away
2-2 vs. NFC East, 2-2 vs. AFC South, 1-0 vs. AFC East, 0-1 vs. AFC West, 2-4 vs. AFC North (Division ATS wins: Home vs. Pit, @ Cin)
Prediction: The Mangini era begins, though the Browns will likely be only marginally better.

Cincinnati Bengals: 4-11-1 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Chad Ochocinco legally changed his name; NFL still wouldn't let him put "Ochocinco" on his jersey.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 4-4 home, 3-5 away
1-3 vs. AFC South, 4-0 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 1-5 in AFC North (only win in week 16 vs. Cle)
Prediction: The Cowboys did the preseason HBO series "thing" last year and missed the playoffs. That "curse" will continue. Cincy will have another tough year, but should improve on last year's pathetic effort, assuming Ocho Cinco is serious about getting on the same page with Carson Palmer. Then again, the loss of Houshmandzadeh may hurt more than a positive Chad Johnson can help.

AFC SOUTH:
Indianapolis Colts: 12-4 in '08, playoff wildcard, lost to SD in first round.
Big Storyline: Finished season on 9-game win streak, yet were ousted in the first round of the playoffs.
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 3-5 home, 5-3 away
1-3 vs. NFC North, 3-1 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 3-3 vs. AFC South (2-1 away, 1-2 home, began 1-3 vs. division ATS and covered final 2 wks)
Prediction: They're the Manning-led Colts. They'll be good. Will they make the playoffs without Dungy? We'll see, but I would think that unless the Titans are as good as last year, no one else will stand in their way.

Tennessee Titans: 13-3 in '08, won AFC South, lost to BAL in divisional round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: "Undefeated" conversation began around week 7, first loss was week 12 vs. Jets.
Against the Spread: 11-4-1 overall, 5-3 home, 6-1-1 away
3-0-1 vs. AFC North, 3-1 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 4-2 vs. AFC South (lost ATS last 2 division games, @ IND and @ HOU)
Prediction: I may just be continuing to underestimate this team, but I don't think they will be as good this season. The Haynesworth departure is a big loss, Kerry Collins is another year older, and Vince Young still isn't ready to take over. Their running game will win them games, but I'm not sure they'll be better than 11-5 or so.

Houston Texans: 8-8 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Was there one? They did beat the Titans...
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 4-4 home, 4-4 away, won 6 of last 7 ATS
2-2 vs. AFC North, 2-2 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 0-1 vs. AFC West, 4-2 vs. AFC South (2-1 home, 2-1 away, won last 3 division games ATS)
Prediction: Houston has steadily gotten better, but doesn't have enough talent to get over the hump and make the playoffs. They'll likley be right around .500 again.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: This was supposed to be a playoff team. Wasn't even close.
Against the Spread: 4-12 overall, 1-7 home, 3-5 away
0-4 vs. AFC North, 2-2 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 1-5 vs. AFC South (only division ATS win @ IND)
Prediction: Since they have nowhere to go but up, I'd expect them to be quite a bit better. Of course, seeing how bad they were last year, I wouldn't pencil them into the playoff tree just yet.

AFC WEST:
Denver Broncos: 8-8 in '08, lost final 3 games of the season to miss playoffs on a tiebreaker.
Big Storyline: Cutler is the "next big thing".
Against the Spread: 5-10-1 overall, 1-6-1 home, 4-4 away
1-2-1 vs. NFC South, 1-3 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC South, 2-4 vs. AFC West (won first 2, lost final 4)
Prediction: They limped to the finish in '08, lost their young stud QB, and somehow pissed off their best WR to the point that he wants a trade. I can't imagine that things are getting better.

San Diego Chargers: 8-8 in '08, won AFC West, beat IND, lost to PIT in playoffs.
Big Storyline: Nearly screwed out of division title by officiating mishap in week 2.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 4-4 home, 3-4 away, 0-1 Neutral
1-3 vs. NFC South, 2-2 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC North, 0-1 vs. AFC South, 3-3 vs. AFC West (2 of 3 ATS losses were KC, the other one was due to a bad call by a referee @Den in week 2)
Prediction: The Chargers should be good, but always seem to underwhelm. I think this may be the year Phillip Rivers shows his mettle and leads the team on a solid charge to the playoffs. It will also help to have Merriman at 100%.

Kansas City Chiefs: 2-14 in '08, worst record in AFC, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Big linebusters...rarely won, but messed up the spread a lot.
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 3-5 home, 5-3 away
2-2 vs. AFC East, 1-3 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 0-1 vs. AFC South, 5-1 vs. AFC West (only ATS loss at home vs. OAK in week 2)
Prediction: They have to be better than 2-14, don't they?

Oakland Raiders: 5-11 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Departure of Kiffin; some Cable guy takes over.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 2-6 home, 5-3 away
3-1 vs. AFC East, 1-3 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 2-4 vs. AFC West (both wins on road - KC and DEN)
Prediction: I am thoroughly convinced that Al Davis is going to run this team into the ground before he'll let someone else have it. I have no confidence in Tom Cable as a head coach, and I'm not sure Oakland will get any better this year. I think they may be even worse.

NFC EAST:
New York Giants: 12-4 in '08, won NFC East, lost to PHI in divisional round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: Plaxico Burress shot himself. Seems like a mistake few people would make...
Against the Spread: 12-4 overall, 6-2 home, 6-2 away
4-0 vs. NFC West, 2-2 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 4-2 vs. NFC East (covered the spread in all but 1 win)
Prediction: The Giants currently have one of the best defensive lines of all time. If everyone stays healthy, they'll be very good. Unless the addition of Vick in Philly is enough to de-throne them, the Giants should coast to another division title.

Philadelphia Eagles: 9-6-1 in '08, playoff wildcard, beat MIN and NYG before losing to ARI in NFC Championship.
Big Storyline: Nearly missed playoffs, ended up in NFC Championship.
Against the Spread: 10-6 overall, 6-2 home, 4-4 away
4-0 vs. NFC West, 2-2 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 3-3 vs. NFC East (2-1 away, 1-2 home - Only home ATS division win in week 17 vs. DAL)
Prediction: Vick will make this team better, and I honestly think they could give the Giants a run for their money, but they'll have to play consistently all year long. In other words, tying the Bengals and forgetting to bring your offense to Washington in week 16 are mistakes the 2009 Eagles may not be able to overcome.

Dallas Cowboys: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Not the dominant team everyone expected.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 4-4 home, 3-5 away
2-2 vs. NFC West, 1-3 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 2-4 vs. NFC East (2 division ATS wins: @WAS, vs. NYG)
Prediction: Romo can focus now that he kicked Jessica to the curb, but without TO to throw to, I don't know that the offense will improve. I think they'll be a very similar team to the one we saw last season, and barring some big wins against New York or Philly, will likely be just on the outside of the playoff bubble once again.

Washington Redskins: 8-8 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: I interviewed a bunch of them before the season, and thought they had a shot at the division. For you kids out there, that's called "buying into the hype".
Against the Spread: 6-9-1 overall, 3-5 home, 3-4-1 away
1-2-1 vs. NFC West, 0-4 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 3-3 vs. NFC East (2 of 3 divisional ATS wins vs. PHI, 3rd was @DAL)
Prediction: I can't see a Jason Campbell-led team making it through the brutal NFC East and into the playoffs. Like the Cowboys, they'll be very similar to last season. Haynesworth is a great addition, but merely replaces Jason Taylor. Though they have a very good defense, it is not enough to carry the offense "Ravens-style", and thus the Skins are destined to be right around the .500 mark again.

NFC NORTH:
Green Bay Packers: 6-10 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Aaron Rodgers at QB, Not Brett Favre. It didn't go well.
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 overall, 3-4-1 home, 5-3 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 0-4 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 5-0-1 vs. NFC North (tie was week 17 vs. DET)
Prediction: I'm not sure what I'm missing, but all of the analysts are saying the the Packers will be the class of the NFC North this year. Have they really done enough in the offseason to be that much better than a team that won only 6 games last year? I do think they will be better, maybe even as many as 4 wins better, but I think the Vikings will be VERY good now that they have a quarterback.

Minnesota Vikings: 10-6 in '08, won NFC North, lost to PHI in wildcard round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: How far can a super bowl team go without a good QB? Apparently the first round of the playoffs.
Against the Spread: 6-10 overall, 3-5 home, 3-5 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 2-2 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 1-5 vs. NFC North (only divisional win vs. CHI)
Prediction: The Vikings were a solid quarterback away from having a good shot at a super bowl run, so if Favre stays healthy and plays like a 35-year old, they'll be a solid contender.

Chicago Bears: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Still no QB...
Against the Spread: 7-7-2 overall, 3-4-1 home, 4-3-1 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 1-1-2 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 1-0 vs. NFC East, 2-4 vs. NFC North (won first 2 division games ATS - @DET, vs. MIN)
Prediction: Like the Vikings, the Bears were a solid quarterback away from being very good. If Cutler can learn the new offense and get on the same page as all of his receivers, the Bears could be quite good. I'm not sure what to expect from Matt Forte after a solid rookie season, but if he is running well the NFC North could be a three way race.

Detroit Lions: 0-16, worst record in NFL history, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: HAHAHAHAHA. Everyone was rooting for 0-16 after week 12. Except Lions fans, I presume.
Against the Spread: 6-9-1 overall, 1-7 home, 5-2-1 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 1-3 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 3-2-1 vs. NFC North (beat the spread vs. MIN twice, @CHI)
Prediction: It can only get better, right? Maybe they can win a couple this season. Matthew Stafford has a lot to learn, but you have to figure they will put it all together at least once or twice. If you're betting Lions games, keep in mind that all but one of the games in which they beat the spread (@CAR) were played on turf.

NFC SOUTH:
Carolina Panthers: 12-4 in '08, won NFC South, lost to ARI in divisional round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: Better than expected. Even won a few games without Steve Smith!
Against the Spread: 8-6-2 overall, 5-1-2 home, 3-5 away
4-0 vs. AFC West, 1-2-1 vs. NFC North, 0-0-1 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 3-3 vs. NFC South (3-0 home, 0-3 away)
Prediction: The Panthers will be similar to the team we saw in '08, and will likely challenge for the division once again. The NFC South might be the best divisional race in the NFL this season. No team stands out as a true favorite (like NYG and PHI in the East) and every team in the division will be competitive (unlike DET in the North).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Lost final 4 games, including week 17 @ home to Raiders. A win would have put them in the playoffs.
Against the Spread: 6-8-2 overall, 4-4 home, 2-4-2 away
0-3-1 vs. AFC West, 4-0 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 0-1 vs. NFC West, 2-3-1 vs. NFC South (both divisional ATS wins at home)
Prediction: The Bucs are a solid team, but the South is too strong for a team to stumble. If they can't beat the easier teams on their schedule, they will quickly find themselves at the bottom of the division. In other words, 1-3 vs. the AFC West is unacceptable.

Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 in '08, playoff wildcard, lost to Arizona in playoffs.
Big Storyline: Matt Ryan is for real.
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 overall, 4-3-1 home, 4-4 away
3-1 vs. AFC West, 3-1 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 0-1 vs. NFC West, 2-3-1 vs. NFC South (2-0-1 home, 0-3 away)
Prediction: Like every other team in the division, they have a shot. Matt Ryan keeps getting better, and his confidence is sky-high after leading his team to the playoffs as a rookie. If the defense is consistent, Atlanta could be headed for the postseason again.

New Orleans Saints: 8-8 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Why isn't Reggie Bush more involved in the offense?
Against the Spread: 11-4-1 overall, 6-1 home, 4-3-1 away, 1-0 Neutral
4-0 vs. AFC West, 2-1-1 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 4-2 vs. NFC South (both ATS losses on road - @TB, @CAR)
Prediction: The Saints are one of those teams that could be anywhere from an 11-5 team to a 6-10 team depending on how consistently they play. They certainly have the talent, but it remains to be seen whether they can get it done week in and week out.

NFC WEST:
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 in '08, won AFC West, lost to PIT in Super Bowl.
Big Storyline: Went to Super Bowl. For the Cardinals franchise, that's huge.
Against the Spread: 9-6-1 overall, 5-3 home, 4-3-1 away
2-2 vs. AFC East (2-0 home, 0-2 road), 1-3 vs. NFC East, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 0-0-1 vs. NFC South, 6-0 vs. NFC West
Prediction: The Cardinals will be a solid team again, though it remains to be seen whether or not Kurt Warner can put together a second straight solid season now that he is another year older. They should win the division, but how far they go from there remains to be seen.

Seattle Seahawks: 4-12 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Underachieved again.
Against the Spread: 7-8-1 overall, 4-4 home, 3-4-1 away
3-1 vs. AFC East, 1-3 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 2-3-1 vs. NFC West
Prediction: The Seahawks will be much better this year, if only because they have added TJ Houshmandzadeh, whose name I will not be writing in the blog again for the rest of the season. I'll just call him TJ. Or Hoosh. Seattle could be good enough to challenge the Cardinals, but I think they'll fall in around the .500 mark and lose out on a divisional title by a couple of games.

St. Louis Rams: 2-14 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Can't seem to put it together.
Against the Spread: 6-8-2 overall, 4-3-1 home, 2-5-1 away
2-2 vs. NFC East, 2-1-1 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 1-4-1 vs. NFC West (only ATS division win vs. SF, tied vs. SEA, 0-3 on road)
Prediction: They won't be worse, but they won't be much better either. Stephen Jackson will carry them to 4 or 5 wins, but that's about it. They need to re-tool a bit before they can even become a factor in what may be the league's weakest division.

San Francisco 49ers: 7-9 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: New Coach rules with Iron Fist.
Against the Spread: 6-9-1 overall, 3-4-1 home, 3-5 away
3-1 vs. AFC East, 0-3-1 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC South, 2-4 vs. NFC West (ATS wins vs. SEA, @STL)
Prediction: San Fran will likely be a similar team to the one we saw last year. I love the intensity of Coach Singletary, and think he will be a great influence on the young players they have in San Francisco, but I can't get past the 49ers' quarterback situation. Their "quarterback competition" is like trying to pick the prettiest turd out of the bowl...neither QB is even close to ready to lead that team to the playoffs.