NFL Week Three Preview

Sunday, September 27:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 38.5
The major trends on this game suggest that it will be played Over (Over last 5 meetings & 7 of last 9 in Bal). Baltimore is obviously the better team, and is 8-1 ATS their last 9 times as a favorite and was 5-1 ATS against their division last year (including 2-0 vs. Cle), prior to becoming a viable offensive football team. Cleveland was 2-4 ATS in the division last season, is 0-2 ATS so far this year, and has shown no signs of life. The only issue is whether or not 13 points is too many for a game between teams that have a legitimate reason to hate each other. I say no.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore Cruises to 3-0 with a 34-13 win.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 44
The Under is 10-0-1 the last eleven times these teams have met, but all of those were when the Bucs had a dominant defense (which is no longer the case...) so be careful. New York is a solid team overall and was solid against the spread last year, including 9-3 as a favorite. Tampa covered only one game in which it was an underdog last season, and was not very good ATS overall. Expect the Giants D-line to stop the run just like the Bills did, and keep in mind that New York will likely fare better at getting pressure on Leftwich when he throws. So it could be a long day for the Bucs offense.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York gets the road win 23-9.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9.5
O/U: 42
I don't care if Vick is back...they're still starting Kolb. The Chiefs may not fare well against the Eagles' defense, but I'm not sure what to expect from the offense, making it very difficult to predict a blowout. The Chiefs kept some games close last year that they probably shouldn't have, and could easily do it again. Philly is also 2-7 ATS their last 9 games before a bye, which probably doesn't mean much, but is enough to push me in favor of the Chiefs.
My Pick: Chiefs +9.5. Philly still wins at home 20-17.

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 38.5
Washington's trends pretty much all suggest Under, no matter who they play. In this case, the Under hasn't lost in 7 straight meetings between the two (5-0-2). Both teams were 6-9-1 ATS last season, but Detroit was only 1-7 ATS at home. Washington was 2-5 ATS as a favorite, and just lost ATS this past week as a large fave. So if I could pick against both teams, I would. The question is whether or not the Lions can score much on the Skins. The Skins will be working out the offensive kinks in practice, and may try to open it up a bit against a terrible Lions D. I say it works.
My Pick: Redskins -6.5. I hate to do this again...but it's the Lions. Washington 23-10.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 46.5
Everything points to Houston in this one. The Texans are 5-1 ATS and SU their past 6 at home against the Jags, and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 overall against Jacksonville. They're also coming off a big win, while the Jags continue to struggle. Jags games tend to end up Under when the Jags are the underdog, though after last week I'm not sure Jacksonville will slow down the Houston O.
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston wins at home 27-21.

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 40
The only trends to look at here are that the 49ers are 0-7 ATS their last 7 trips to Minnesota and that the Under is 5-1 the last 6 meetings. The level of play on the field suggests that the 49ers might have a shot. The Vikings had some early offensive trouble against the Lions, and when San Fran watches that tape, they may figure out how to contain Minnesota. The 49ers offense won't be able to do anything against a tough Minnesota D, though, so I am thinking it will be a tough defensive battle. The question is how tough.
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota wins at home 17-9.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -4
O/U: 44.5
Peria Jerry is out for the Falcons, but that should affect the run defense more than the pass D, and the Pats seem determined not to run the football. Atlanta is 2-0 ATS thus far, New England is 0-2 ATS...but both teams have yet to be an underdog. Atlanta is playing well right now, but New England is (or better be...) in crisis mode, as they have not played anywhere near expectations. They know Peria Jerry is out, and should make a concerted effort to run the ball. I'm not sure if the D will hold up, but I think the Pats should win. But will it be by 4?
My Pick: Falcons +4. I'm sick of the Pats disappointing me. I think they'll win 24-21.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
New York has been stellar under Rex Ryan:Defensive Genius. Tennessee has struggled, but would love to return the favor from last year and ruin the Jets' 2-0 record. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 September road games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games overall, but the Jets are solid and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the Titans. It seems ridiculous for me to underestimate the Jets again, but I think the Titans are bound to start playing better, and the Jets still have a rookie QB. The Titans will pound the ball on the ground and tire out the Jets' D. Sanchez will struggle against a hungry Titans' D.
My Pick: Titans +3. Tennessee wins outright 13-6.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 41
After last week's debacle, nothing is a sure thing. The Packers are 2-7 SU in their last 9 trips to St. Louis, but after being embarassed last week at home, I think they will be out to prove something. And St. Louis is far worse than Cincy. My biggest concern is that Green Bay lost 7 ATS last year in streaks of 3 and 4, which suggests that Green Bay is a team that doesn't rebound well from a sub-par performance.
My Pick: Packers -6.5. The Packers don't blow it. They win 27-13.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 53
Linebuster!
The Bills have been playing well, but can't score anywhere near 40 points. The Saints likely will. Since 1980, the road team in this series has won 5 of 7 meetings. The Bills were also zero for their last four SU and ATS against NFC South opponents before last week's win over the Bucs. Honestly, though, the reason it's a linebuster is because I don't see the Bills' secondary being the first ones to chain down Brees and the high-flying Saints. Unless Edwards is stellar and the Bills score 40 also, this should be an easy cover for the favored Saints.
My Pick: Saints -5.5. New Orleans 41-31.

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Bears -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
If I hadn't remembered that Hasslebeck was out, I would have gone with the Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace ain't beatin' the Bears. Hasslebeck's absence isn't yet definite, but he has a broken rib. If McNabb is missing starts for the same injury, Hasslebeck will be too. The Bears are 0-4 SU @ Seattle since 1980 and the Seahawks are 10-2-1 ATS in their past 13 September home games, but I'm guessing most of those weren't with Seneca Wallace at QB. And in most of those games, the Seahawks were favored; Seattle is just 3-15 SU in their last 18 games as an underdog.
My Pick: Bears -2. Chicago wins 20-13.

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
Miami is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their past 7 against the Bolts, which supports my gut feeling that the Fins were a solid choice in this game. The last 8 meetings between the two teams were played Under, and I think that is a safe bet again. The Chargers are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, including 0-2 ATS this season. Despite being at home, this feels like a trap game.
My Pick: Fins +6. Miami wins outright 20-17.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Oakland -1
O/U: 36.5
The trends conflict, as Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Oakland despite Oakland having won only 3 of their last 11 home meetings with Denver. Also, Denver is 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 division games, though Oakland has lost 10 straight ATS as a favorite. So I'll have to figure this one out based on the two teams. Denver has played well, but I would expect them to lose. Oakland is a tough team, and should be able to grind it out at home. My gut says to take Oakland. So I'll take Denver. (Picking against my gut seems to be the only way to get a Broncos game right!)
My Pick: Broncos +1. Denver wins 17-13.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -4
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
Come on, now. One week against the Packers doesn't mean the Bengals are good. It means the Packers didn't play defense. Even without Polamalu, the Steelers secondary won't get embarassed, and coming off of a loss, Big Ben will have the offense clicking. The Bengals are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 at home against Pitt, and just 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. The Steelers are 11-1 SU the last 12 times they were favored against an AFC North opponent, and Cincy went 1-5 ATS in the division last season including 2 ATS losses to Pitt. This one seems pretty clear to me...
My Pick: Steelers -4. Pittsburgh in a landslide 28-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
The Cards seemed to be back last week, winning on the east coast and clicking offensively. Put that offense back in the desert and things could get very interesting. Peyton and the Colts may have something to say about it, however. The Colts are 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS the last 4 times these two have met. And inexplicably the under has come to pass in all of those meetings. I wouldn't expect that to happen again; this Cards team is a bit different than the Cards of old. The Cards are 9-3 ATS the last 12 times they were a favorite (0-1 in '09), but the Colts are 14-2 SU in their past 16 September road games. I am tempted to pick Arizona, chiefly due to my concern that the Colts never seem to hit their full stride until week 7 or 8, but that SU number for Indy is pretty remarkable. 14-2 on the road early in the year? Wow.
My Pick: Colts +2.5. Indy wins a shootout 34-31.

Monday, September 28th:

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9
O/U: 46
Ok, yes, the Panthers have been having a tough year. But 9 points to the Cowboys? The Panthers are 1-7 SU in their last 8 against Dallas and have not been a stellar road team in the past. But 9 points? Romo will be looking to atone for last week, but the Panthers are trying to make up for an 0-2 start. The numbers say to pick Dallas, but my gut says that giving 9 points to a less-than-consistent Cowboys team is a bad idea. Do I go numbers or gut? I have a better idea. Go Intangibles! Indy had trouble adjusting to Lucas Oil Field last year; The Cowboys may need an adjustment period at Cowboys Stadium. 4 of the past 5 meetings between these teams were played Over, so I'm going high on points.
Panthers +9. Cowboys still win it 31-23.