NFL Week One Preview

Here we are again, ready to begin another fantastic football season. The excitement is palpable. Football fans all over town are already chattering, wondering if the Steelers will be as good, if the Titans will be for real again, and if Trigger can pull his head out of his ass and pick some games correctly this year. Let's hope so...

Thursday, Sept 10th:
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6
O/U: 34.5
Both of these teams stand to be quite good, but after a Super Bowl title, Pittsburgh is bound to be a little bit better. Key Word: Little. 6 points is too many. First of all, Tennessee was 6-1-1 against the spread on the road last season, and was 3-0 ATS when they were the underdog. They've also WON 11 of their last 14 against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 opening games, but was only 4-4 ATS at home last season. If you're an over/under fan, it may be a tough bet, as the under is 5-1 in TEN's last 6 week 1 road games, yet the over has been 8-1 in Pittsburgh's last 9 games in September. Out of the last 12 meetings between these two franchises in Pittsburgh, the Over is 10-2, so if you're leaning, over may be the way to fall, despite how good both of these defenses are.
My Pick: Titans +6. Tennessee will cover, but they'll still lose 24-20.

Sunday, Sept. 13th:
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -4
O/U: 43
This one is a bit tough to call. On one hand, Miami is 0-5-1 ATS in their past 6 vs. Atlanta and was 0-4 ATS against NFC teams last year (and that was the putrid NFC West...). On the other, the Fins were 4-1 ATS as a road underdog last year. I have great faith in Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, but it's the Falcons D I'm not sure about. They'll be solid, but how will they perform against a wildcat with teeth? (Teeth=Pat White's Passing Ability). I have to give creedence to Atlanta's confidence and experience over the inconsistency and unpredictability of the Fins.
My Pick: Falcons -4. Atlanta wins big at home 31-21.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 36
I think the oddsmakers are trying to say that the Cassel-less Chiefs won't score much against the Ravens D. They are probably right, but don't discount the Chiefs, who despite a 2-14 record last season were still 8-8 ATS. Most of the spread trends make me think I should take Kansas City, which is 9-2 in their last 11 as an underdog of more than 8, was 5-3 as a road dog last year, and is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games in September. There are two major problems with these trends, however. First, Brodie Croyle will be the starting QB and is facing the Baltimore D. Second, the Ravens were the best team ATS last year, were 7-1 as a favorite, and lost ATS only once at home all year. Flacco is confident, Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are a talented tandem, and the Chiefs have a very questionable defense, which would suggest that over is a safe bet, especially if you agree that the Ravens will cover the spread.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore rolls 31-10.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4
O/U: 43
These teams will not be good, but this could be a competitive game based on an equal lack of talent. Denver was awful ATS last year (5-10-1), but was 4-4 ATS on the road. Cincy was 7-9 ATS overall and is 3-1 ATS in their last four against the Broncos at home, but is only 4-8 ATS in their last twelve games as a favorite. Denver is 10-2 in their last 12 vs. Cincy, but those games have been spread out over many years, and Denver was a much better team throughout that period of time. Denver is down right now, and with all of the off-the-field distractions surrounding the Brandon Marshall situation, I'm not sure what to expect from them. Cincy was awful last year, but with a healthy Carson Palmer and a (he says...) humbled and hungry Chad Ochocinco, they could surprise some people. No surprises in week one; they should handle the Broncos at home.
Bengals -4. Cincinnati starts things off right, 26-19.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Vikings -4
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
Cleveland was 3-1 ATS as a home underdog last season, and the Vikings were not very good against the spread (6-10), but this pick needs to be based more on the players than on past trends. Cleveland hasn't gotten much better. Their running back is a year older, their quarterback is the same, and they haven't done much to make the defense better. Minnesota, on the other hand, went out and got the one thing they needed: A quarterback. If Favre gets injured, the Vikings won't be any better than last year. With him, however, I think they are a Super Bowl contender. Yeah, that's right, I said it. You may think I'm nuts. But look at their roster; they have everything you need to win in the NFL. Of course, if you prefer to bet based on prior trends, you can take solace in the fact that Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 openers...I'd also recommend the under, assuming Cleveland won't score much.
My Pick: Vikings -4. Vikings roll 27-12.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
Both teams have very solid records ATS in week one, but Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games @ IND. The Colts started out slow last year, but part of the reason for that was Peyton's preseason absence. Indy struggled against the spread as home favorites (2-5) in their first year at Lucas Oil Field, but Jacksonville struggled everywhere. Against everybody. They were just 4-12 ATS all year long. But it's a new season, Jones-Drew is fresh, and the Jags defense is all ready to go. If Bob Sanders is out for Indy, Jacksonville could score 20+ points and beat the spread. If he does play, the Colts should roll. Either way, Indy will put up points, so the over is a good bet.
My Pick: Jaguars +7. Too many points. Colts win 27-22.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13
O/U: 49
The Saints are going to be a solid team, but 13 is a lot to cover in week one, even against the Lions. Detroit is 11-2 in their last 13 games as an underdog of more than 8, and has WON their last two games as an underdog @ NO. Talent at the linebacker position can limit Reggie Bush's effectiveness, and the Lions certainly have that in Julian Peterson and Larry Foote. New Orleans has plenty of guys to throw to, but the Lions do, too. If Stafford is steady, the Lions can beat this spread, and may even beat the Saints. The over is 12-2 the past 14 times the Lions have been a big dog (+8 or more), but New Orleans generally doesn't get the offense clicking right away, and as such the under has been 8-2 their past 10 opening weeks. I would still go with the over, based on the talent on offense and perceived lack of defense.
My Pick: Lions +13. New Orleans squeaks by 31-29.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Cowboys -6
O/U: 39
The Bucs covered only 1 game as an underdog last season, but have outscored the Cowboys 43-7 in their last 2 games in Tampa. The problem for Tampa is that they don't have enough defense this season to keep their offense close, and that will cost them a lot of games. Dallas has the firepower to exploit the Bucs D and buck the line trends that seem to be against them. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams, and should be a solid play once again.
My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins big 30-6.

New York Jets @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 43.5
In Houston's short history, they are 0-3 against the Jets, 0-3 ATS against the Jets, and all three games have been played "under". The Jets were also 3-1 ATS as a road dog last year. Those seem like pretty strong trends. Starting on the road will be good for Sanchez, as he'll avoid some of the pressure that would be on his shoulders if the game were played in New York. He'll be able to go out, focus, and do his job. The Jets also return enough defensive talent to keep up with Houston's quick offense, and should, at the very least, keep the game close.
My Pick: Jets +4.5. Jets win outright 20-17.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Eagles -1
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
Carolina lost only one game ATS at home all of last season, but was never a home underdog, so things are a bit different. They are also 1-6 in their last 7 week one home games. Philly is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. CAR, and is used to facing teams with a solid defense and running game. Vick isn't going to be a factor yet, but the Eagles are still an excellent team without him, and I remain concerned that Jake Delhomme is due for an off year. The under is 12-4 in Carolina's last 16 September home games, but Philly lit it up early last season, so the O/U is a tough bet.
My Pick: Eagles -1. Philly is too good, and gets things started properly, 30-17.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -6.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
Arizona was 5-1 ATS as a home favorite last year, and won all 6 games ATS against the NFC West. They'll be good again, the 49ers will struggle. I would consider taking the under, as Arizona has a confident defense looking to continue rolling from last season, and I don't think the Cards will score 40 by themselves. But I guess you never know...
My Pick: Cards -6.5. Arizona rolls 34-10.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -8.5
O/U: 41.5
Every trend points toward the resurgent Seahawks, who look to be significantly better than they were last year, and may even challenge for the division crown. Seattle is 6-2 ATS in the past 8 vs. St. Louis, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite, and the Rams are 1-7-1 in their last 9 openers and 1-7 in their last 8 within the division. It will be another long year for the Rams, and it will all begin on Sunday. Also of note, the under is 7-1 for the past 8 Rams openers, so it is a pretty safe bet.
My Pick: Seahawks -8.5. Seattle gets started right with a 27-10 victory.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 37
The Skins were .500 ATS as a road dog last year, and the Giants were 2-0 ATS against the Skins and were 6-2 ATS in '08 as a home favorite. The only safe play seems to be the under, which has hit 8 of the last 9 Washington openers, 7 of the last 8 games the Skins have played within the division, and 8 of the last 9 games between these two teams at Giants Stadium. My concern is that if the under hits again, the Giants may not have scored enough points to distance themselves by 7 points. Then again, Washington will be doing nothing against that NY D-Line.
My Pick: Giants -6.5. Giants win 17-6.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 46
Neither team performed well against the spread last year, which is why Green Bay's mark of 5-0-1 against the division is such an outlier. The problem is that last year was Green Bay's only win ATS at home against the Bears in their last 5 tries (1-3-1). My gut reaction is to say the Bears will win, but Lambeau is a tough place to play, and I'm not sure how well Cutler is gelling with his teammates. He also has nobody to pass to. Keep in mind Devin Hester has never really excelled as a primary receiver, and began as a DB. When the Bears prove they can throw, I'll consider them a bigger threat. The Packers also blew the Bears out of Lambeau last year. Keep in mind that the Bears have played 5 straight week 1 unders, so go low.
My Pick: Packers -3.5. Green Bay wins 24-20.

Monday, Sept. 14th:
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
I know my Bills, and I know when they play the Pats they tend to lose by A LOT. The numbers support this trend as well. The Bills are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Pats, and were just 1-5 ATS last year within the division. The one detractor for the Pats is that they have struggled (2-11) against the spread as a double digit favorite. Buffalo has TO, but how much can he do if Trent Edwards is the one throwing him the ball? New England is also at home...on Monday Night...as a Super Bowl favorite...and it's Tom Brady's first game back from injury. This one ain't gonna be pretty, folks. As for the O/U, go low, as the Under has come up 9 of the last 10 games between these teams in Foxboro.
My Pick: Pats -10.5. Gotta go against my team. NE is too strong for Buffalo. 31-17.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
It's a linebuster based on the very clear trends that make this game a bit easier to predict. San Diego is better than Oakland, and will be a playoff team. Merriman's situation is a distraction, but I don't think it will hurt things in week 1. Oakland is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 opening games, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against the Raiders, and went 2-6 ATS at home last season. They are no better, I have no faith in Jamarcus Russel, and although McFadden may have a big year, I don't have faith in Tom Cable as a head coach. The Raiders are doomed to have another 4 or 5 win season, and San Diego will get off to a good start. If you want to play O/U, go under, as it has gone 8-2 with San Diego as a week 1 favorite.
My Pick: Chargers -9. San Diego gets off to a fast start, 23-13.