Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (Sat. Jan 3rd, 4:30 pm)
Line: Falcons -2
O/U: 51
You know what? I'm going with the Cardinals. They've played great at home all year, and the franchise hasn't had a playoff win in a VERY long time. Arizona scored 14 points at home against Minnesota, but has 29+ in every other home game, including the one against the Giants...and if you haven't seen New York play, they're pretty darn good. So Atlanta will really need a solid defensive effort, and though I trust Matt Ryan and the offense, I'm just unsure of the D. If it's a shootout, I think Arizona can pull it off. Then again, Atlanta has been surprising me all season. If they do it again, no hard feelings...
Cards +2. Arizona can keep up with the NFC until they have to travel East. Which would be their next stop...Cards win a wild one, 37-34.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (Sat. Jan 3rd, 8pm)
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 51
Logic dictates that the Colts, who are on a big winning streak and have been playing quite well on both sides of the ball, will beat the Chargers, who snuck into the playoffs at .500 and were downright awful in a good number of their games this season. Of course, the NFL is never that simple, as the Chargers are playing pretty well right now, too. I think the playoff experience will show through for the Colts, even if the Chargers play with the "we deserve to be here" chip on their shoulders.
Colts -1. Indy wins another great game, 33-31.
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (Sun. Jan 4th, 1pm)
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 37.5
The Fins played great to get to the playoffs, but now they're in the deep end of the pool with the big kids, and the Ravens will be strong enough to hold them under until the bubbles stop. I'm high on the Ravens right now, but look at what they've done lately...they've really been beating teams badly!
Ravens -3. Baltimore drowns the fish 27-16.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (Sun. Jan 4th, 4:30pm)
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 42
Until I sat down to pick the games, I "knew" I was going with the Eagles. Now that I have actually put some thought into it, I'm not so sure. Against solid defensive teams, the Eagles have struggled. They lost twice to the Redskins. They won, but only managed 5 field goals against the Steelers. If Minnesota can get the offense going at all, they should be able to stay in the game, and maybe even win. But there are two reasons I am staying with my gut and taking the Eagles. 1. Minnesota tends to start slowly on defense, and allow teams to get out on them early. If the Eagles can put up some early points, the defense can hold the lead for them. 2. Philly has been in a lot of tough games lately, that were must-win games...and they prevailed. They're battle tested. And a second round Eagles-Giants game would be awfully fun to watch!
Eagles -3. Philly wins 20-14.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
RECAP - WEEK SEVENTEEN
This Week: 6-8-2 (122-123-10)
Linebusters: 2-3 (42-42-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 10-6 (156-96-1)
So after 17 weeks, I'm at exactly .500 on linebusters, and 1 game under for the rest...Wow. Consistent, yes. Good? Not really. I expected .600 or so. But I can't complain. I'm used to picking outcomes without the spread, and if you take a look at the straight picks, I was .617. Not bad. Of course, this was the weirdest season I've ever seen. And week 17 was no different...
Does a Playoff Spot Mean Anything Anymore?
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -13
O/U: 39
My Pick: Tampa -13. Gotta go with the desperate Bucs 30-10.
Result: Raiders 31-24
With a shot at the playoffs (they would have gotten in, too, with the Dallas loss...), the Bucs go out and get beat by Oakland? Huh? Oakland? Really? You deserve your early offseason, Tampa.
Perfectly Imperfect
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -10. 0-16 becomes a reality. Packers 27-13.
Result: Packers 31-21
So it has finally happened. Thought it would be the Fins last year, and look at them now. Can Detroit turn it around that quickly? Don't bet on it...
Land of Confusion
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -1.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cowboys +1.5. Dallas heads to the postseason with a win, 31-20.
Result: Eagles 44-6
Don't get me wrong...as a football fan, I'm thrilled that the 'Boys' are done. But where did this come from? Philly scored only 3 points in a loss to Washington, a team that is on the downturn and has been playing like crap, and then came out and wailed on everyone's preseason super bowl favorite in a game that both teams needed to win if they wished to continue their season? I guess Philly wanted it more...
Scott Norwood Revisited
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants +6.5. New York wins outright, 21-20.
Result: Vikings 20-19
I know, the game was unimportant, and the situation was totally different, but the Vikings won 20-19 (same score as super bowl XXV), and did so on a last second field goal. Obviously Norwood missed his shot nearly 18 years ago, giving the Giants the 20-19 win, but for Bills fans, every 20-19 game is a flashback, and when the Giants and a last second field goal are both involved, it is even worse!
Clean Out Your Lockers!
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bears +2.5. They've gotta win. 24-21.
Result: Texans 31-24
The Bears would have gotten the wild card, the way things worked out, but they couldn't beat Houston. Yet another team that fully deserves its fate. Houston should be congratulated, however, on an excellent season, finishing .500, well above what most people projected.
Holy Comeback!
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 52.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins 33-21.
Result: Panthers 33-31
This one was all wrapped up at 30-10, and I thought I was going to be just fine against the spread...but things went awry. If Carolina slacks off like that in the playoffs, even for a moment, they could have big issues. I'd be very hesitant to pick them as a super bowl team, simply because they do have a tendency to let up their guard.
Too Close...
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -14
O/U: 44
My Pick: Falcons -14. Atlanta has been a pleasant surprise all season, and wins again 27-10.
Result: Falcons 31-27
I was dumb to go with a spread that big, but Atlanta should not have allowed the Rams to put up 27 points on them. That is a bit disconcerting as they now head to Arizona...a place where big numbers regularly light up the scoreboard.
The Who Gives a Damn Bowl...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chiefs +3. KC wins it 24-13.
Result: Benglas 16-6
I guess I shouldn't have gone against the Bengals after all. Whatever...
Watch Out Now...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -12.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens -12.5. Baltimore rolls 27-10.
Result: Ravens 27-7
The Ravens aren't just winning games lately, they're blowing people out. The D is on fire, and the O is doing good enough to give the D the rest it needs. This could be a dangerous team, and certainly will not be an easy out for Miami. If Baltimore wins, don't forget that they barely lost to the Titans early in the season when Tennessee was on its winning streak, making for a very intriguing potential second-round matchup.
Streakin to the Playoffs
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38
My Pick: Colts +3. Indy doesn't want to back into the playoffs...21-17.
Result: Colts 23-0
This game meant very little. Both of these teams are very good. Nobody wants to play the Colts right now, and if Miami and Indy win, the next game the Titans play will be against the very team that just shut them out. Yet another interesting possible second-round matchup. I wouldn't expect that one to go quite the same way...
Stupid Win
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 32.5
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Steelers don't score much, but they score enough. 20-3.
Result: Steelers 31-0
Haha, Cleveland still can't score. What's not funny, however, is that Big Ben left this game on a stretcher. That is why teams rest star players in meaningless games, and after what we saw Sunday, I'll bet coaches over-react next year and refuse to play most of their big-name guys in week 17.
Still Swimming
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -2.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Jets -2.5. New York wins, but doesn't make the playoffs! 24-20.
Result: Dolphins 24-17
Unbelievable that Miami went from 1-15 to division champs...still, though, I said that the Jets wouldn't make the playoffs, and was right. They really were never that good. Their win over the Titans was big, but they played flawlessly, and the Titans had an off day. It happens. I think Miami will be one and done, but we'll see. They've been surprising people all year. Anybody else think it's fitting that the only win the Dolphins mustered last year was against the Ravens, and now they'll be meeting in the playoffs?
Blown Away
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Not Enough (Pats -6.5)
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -6.5. New England runs over the Bills 38-14.
Result: Pats 13-0
I had no idea it would be so windy, or I wouldn't have assumed so many points would be scored. Either way, New England did what it needed to do, and still managed to miss the playoffs. Ouch. I, like many, had them going 16-0 with Tom Brady...the schedule was easier this year than last...but it's football, and sometimes crazy things just happen!
Back in Form?
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -6
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Cards -6. Gotta go with that offense as it tunes up for the postseason. 27-19.
Result: Cards 34-21
Seeing their O put up 34 points on a defense that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 3 points last week may have Cards fans excited for the postseason. Atlanta is a good team, though. That will be a fun game to watch.
Disappointment
Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 20-16.
Result: 49ers 27-24
To be underdogs in San Fran was bad. To actually lose was worse. How far the mighty have fallen.
Revenge
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Broncos +8. San Diego still wins 34-31.
Result: Chargers 52-21
Yes, folks, that is what revenge looks like. I'm thrilled that Denver managed to screw up what was all-but a sure thing...but I'm not so happy that they finally messed up the Denver rule. My gut said this would be a blowout, and it was. So the Denver Rule finishes the season at 4-1. We'll break it out again next year, and see how it does.
Linebusters: 2-3 (42-42-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 10-6 (156-96-1)
So after 17 weeks, I'm at exactly .500 on linebusters, and 1 game under for the rest...Wow. Consistent, yes. Good? Not really. I expected .600 or so. But I can't complain. I'm used to picking outcomes without the spread, and if you take a look at the straight picks, I was .617. Not bad. Of course, this was the weirdest season I've ever seen. And week 17 was no different...
Does a Playoff Spot Mean Anything Anymore?
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -13
O/U: 39
My Pick: Tampa -13. Gotta go with the desperate Bucs 30-10.
Result: Raiders 31-24
With a shot at the playoffs (they would have gotten in, too, with the Dallas loss...), the Bucs go out and get beat by Oakland? Huh? Oakland? Really? You deserve your early offseason, Tampa.
Perfectly Imperfect
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -10. 0-16 becomes a reality. Packers 27-13.
Result: Packers 31-21
So it has finally happened. Thought it would be the Fins last year, and look at them now. Can Detroit turn it around that quickly? Don't bet on it...
Land of Confusion
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -1.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cowboys +1.5. Dallas heads to the postseason with a win, 31-20.
Result: Eagles 44-6
Don't get me wrong...as a football fan, I'm thrilled that the 'Boys' are done. But where did this come from? Philly scored only 3 points in a loss to Washington, a team that is on the downturn and has been playing like crap, and then came out and wailed on everyone's preseason super bowl favorite in a game that both teams needed to win if they wished to continue their season? I guess Philly wanted it more...
Scott Norwood Revisited
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants +6.5. New York wins outright, 21-20.
Result: Vikings 20-19
I know, the game was unimportant, and the situation was totally different, but the Vikings won 20-19 (same score as super bowl XXV), and did so on a last second field goal. Obviously Norwood missed his shot nearly 18 years ago, giving the Giants the 20-19 win, but for Bills fans, every 20-19 game is a flashback, and when the Giants and a last second field goal are both involved, it is even worse!
Clean Out Your Lockers!
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bears +2.5. They've gotta win. 24-21.
Result: Texans 31-24
The Bears would have gotten the wild card, the way things worked out, but they couldn't beat Houston. Yet another team that fully deserves its fate. Houston should be congratulated, however, on an excellent season, finishing .500, well above what most people projected.
Holy Comeback!
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 52.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins 33-21.
Result: Panthers 33-31
This one was all wrapped up at 30-10, and I thought I was going to be just fine against the spread...but things went awry. If Carolina slacks off like that in the playoffs, even for a moment, they could have big issues. I'd be very hesitant to pick them as a super bowl team, simply because they do have a tendency to let up their guard.
Too Close...
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -14
O/U: 44
My Pick: Falcons -14. Atlanta has been a pleasant surprise all season, and wins again 27-10.
Result: Falcons 31-27
I was dumb to go with a spread that big, but Atlanta should not have allowed the Rams to put up 27 points on them. That is a bit disconcerting as they now head to Arizona...a place where big numbers regularly light up the scoreboard.
The Who Gives a Damn Bowl...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chiefs +3. KC wins it 24-13.
Result: Benglas 16-6
I guess I shouldn't have gone against the Bengals after all. Whatever...
Watch Out Now...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -12.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens -12.5. Baltimore rolls 27-10.
Result: Ravens 27-7
The Ravens aren't just winning games lately, they're blowing people out. The D is on fire, and the O is doing good enough to give the D the rest it needs. This could be a dangerous team, and certainly will not be an easy out for Miami. If Baltimore wins, don't forget that they barely lost to the Titans early in the season when Tennessee was on its winning streak, making for a very intriguing potential second-round matchup.
Streakin to the Playoffs
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38
My Pick: Colts +3. Indy doesn't want to back into the playoffs...21-17.
Result: Colts 23-0
This game meant very little. Both of these teams are very good. Nobody wants to play the Colts right now, and if Miami and Indy win, the next game the Titans play will be against the very team that just shut them out. Yet another interesting possible second-round matchup. I wouldn't expect that one to go quite the same way...
Stupid Win
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 32.5
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Steelers don't score much, but they score enough. 20-3.
Result: Steelers 31-0
Haha, Cleveland still can't score. What's not funny, however, is that Big Ben left this game on a stretcher. That is why teams rest star players in meaningless games, and after what we saw Sunday, I'll bet coaches over-react next year and refuse to play most of their big-name guys in week 17.
Still Swimming
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -2.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Jets -2.5. New York wins, but doesn't make the playoffs! 24-20.
Result: Dolphins 24-17
Unbelievable that Miami went from 1-15 to division champs...still, though, I said that the Jets wouldn't make the playoffs, and was right. They really were never that good. Their win over the Titans was big, but they played flawlessly, and the Titans had an off day. It happens. I think Miami will be one and done, but we'll see. They've been surprising people all year. Anybody else think it's fitting that the only win the Dolphins mustered last year was against the Ravens, and now they'll be meeting in the playoffs?
Blown Away
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Not Enough (Pats -6.5)
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -6.5. New England runs over the Bills 38-14.
Result: Pats 13-0
I had no idea it would be so windy, or I wouldn't have assumed so many points would be scored. Either way, New England did what it needed to do, and still managed to miss the playoffs. Ouch. I, like many, had them going 16-0 with Tom Brady...the schedule was easier this year than last...but it's football, and sometimes crazy things just happen!
Back in Form?
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -6
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Cards -6. Gotta go with that offense as it tunes up for the postseason. 27-19.
Result: Cards 34-21
Seeing their O put up 34 points on a defense that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 3 points last week may have Cards fans excited for the postseason. Atlanta is a good team, though. That will be a fun game to watch.
Disappointment
Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 20-16.
Result: 49ers 27-24
To be underdogs in San Fran was bad. To actually lose was worse. How far the mighty have fallen.
Revenge
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Broncos +8. San Diego still wins 34-31.
Result: Chargers 52-21
Yes, folks, that is what revenge looks like. I'm thrilled that Denver managed to screw up what was all-but a sure thing...but I'm not so happy that they finally messed up the Denver rule. My gut said this would be a blowout, and it was. So the Denver Rule finishes the season at 4-1. We'll break it out again next year, and see how it does.
Friday, December 26, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK SEVENTEEN
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -13
O/U: 39
Tampa will win this game, but by 13 points? Oakland only plays decent every other week, and they won in week 16, so...you know...it could be a blowout. Plus, the Bucs MUST WIN. Betting on desperation is great, but this spread is awfully big.
Tampa -13. Gotta go with the desperate Bucs 30-10.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 43
The Packers have nothing to play for. The Lions do. But can Detroit put up a fight at Lambeau?
Packers -10. 0-16 becomes a reality. Packers 27-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -1.5
O/U: 42.5
Unlike many other teams in the league, the Eagles don't show up one week and disappear the next. They go on 2- or 3-game streaks of playing like crap. Not to mention the Cowboys have been given new life far too many times this season, and are bound to take advantage...especially coming in as underdogs.
Cowboys +1.5. Dallas heads to the postseason with a win, 31-20.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -6.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Oh, hell no. I was curious to see if the Vikes would be favored, but that is an insane line. Even if the Giants don't care about the game, I doubt Tarvaris Jackson can put up enough points to blow them out. New York lost 2 in a row, then won last week. They don't want to stumble into the postseason having lost 3 of their last 4, so I don't think they'll phone this one in. Not to mention, even if they rest Brandon Jacobs, his backup is Derrick Ward, and he can gash the Vikings like crazy without big Pat Williams in there stopping the run.
Giants +6.5. New York wins outright, 21-20.
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
The Bears have something to play for, and it is desperation time. If they can summon desperation to block a field goal against Green Bay that they absolutely had to block, I can't go against them when a win could mean a playoff spot.
Bears +2.5. They've gotta win. 24-21.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 52.5
Linebuster!
No Reggie, a new offensive coordinator, and the false confidence a 42-7 win over the Lions can provide will make this game a blowout in the wrong direction for Saints fans. Carolina is still playing for the division and a first round bye. Of course, if they don't get it, they'd be the #5 seed, and would travel to Arizona, which is a very winnable game. But why bother playing next week?
Panthers -3. Carolina wins 33-21.
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -14
O/U: 44
The Rams put up a good fight against San Fran last week, but are pretty much ready for their season to be over. Atlanta needs a win, and is on a huge high right now as they go into the playoffs. A win guarantees them, at worst, the #5 seed and a probable trip to Arizona. If Carolina loses, a win would give them the division and a first round bye! Yes, I'm said Atlanta Falcons and first round bye in the same sentence, and I wasn't kidding.
Falcons -14. Atlanta has been a pleasant surprise all season, and wins again 27-10.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
Cincy is by no means a good football team, and KC has been playing tough for a while. Their offense is young, but meshes together well, and should be enough to outgun the 13 obligatory points the Bungles will score.
Chiefs +3. KC wins it 24-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -12.5
O/U: 36
It's a big spread, and the Jags have been playing much better lately...but I just can't go against it. The Ravens have been beating teams by wide margins, and they'll be extra amped up for this one. They control their own destiny...
Ravens -12.5. Baltimore rolls 27-10.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 38
Both teams are locked into their playoff spots, so this a tough game to figure out. On one hand, the Titans played poorly in Houston when the game didn't mean a whole lot (although in retrospect it could have been a killer, had Pittsburgh won last week). On the other hand, the Titans have much more depth. Then again, it is tough to sweep a season series, and the Colts would love to roll into the playoff with their current win streak in tact...
Colts +3. Indy doesn't want to back into the playoffs...21-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 32.5
The last game between these two was insanely low scoring. I don't expect Cleveland to score much (if any...), but Pittsburgh may not see the endzone much either.
Steelers -10.5. Steelers don't score much, but they score enough. 20-3.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -2.5
O/U: 42
I want the Jets to win and the Pats and Ravens to get in because, frankly, it would be hilarious. The problem for the Dolphins in this game is that they have the pressure of the whole country on them, to a degree, as they have become a worst-to-first story. How good are they, really? We will find out in week 17. Favre loves to dispell injury and retirement rumors by going out and playing like he is 24 again. Not to mention, he has had a few bad weeks in a row, so this should be a very good one.
Jets -2.5. New York wins, but doesn't make the playoffs! 24-20.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Not Enough (Pats -6.5)
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
The Patriots always crush the Bills. If you add in playoff implications, this one will be over after one quarter.
Pats -6.5. New England runs over the Bills 38-14.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -6
O/U: 45.5
Arizona is likely the 4-seed no matter what, so they don't have a lot to play for. Their problem is that if they lose, they'll be 8-8...and nobody wants to be that .500 team that snuck into the playoffs. Seattle did well last week, but can they keep it up?
Cards -6. Gotta go with that offense as it tunes up for the postseason. 27-19.
Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 37.5
Nobody has anything to play for in this one. Frankly, I don't care too much what happens. Very few teams have been able to travel cross-country this year and win, so we'll go with that...
49ers -3. San Fran wins 20-16.
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 50.5
I have known for a while what I would need to do with this game...San Diego got screwed in week 2 against the Broncs, they've clawed all the way back after being 4-8, and Denver has been playing like crap. Denver is also dealing with issues in the locker room. So everything points toward San Diego big. Which is why the "Denver Rule" states that I must go against common sense.
Broncos +8. San Diego still wins 34-31.
PLAYOFF PICTURE (based on predicted results)
AFC:
1. Tennessee
2. Pittsburgh
3. New England
4. San Diego
5. Indianapolis
6. Baltimore
NFC:
1. New York Giants
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. Arizona
5. Atlanta
6. Dallas
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
RECAP - WEEK SIXTEEN
This Week: 10-6 (116-115-8)
Linebusters: 4-1 (40-39-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 9-7 (146-90-1)
Now that I've got everything back above .500 with one week to go, I'm feeling pretty confident. The Jets are a disgrace, and since Fins and Jets fans both HATE the Patriots, I think it's only fitting that the Jets beat Miami, allowing the Pats to win the AFC east and get in the playoffs while the Jets and Fins both sit at home!
MVP Talk May Be A Little Much...
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Result: Colts 31-24
Yeah, the Colts won their 8th in a row, but they didn't look very impressive. It took some late heroics. I'm not so sure that Peyton is the league's MVP right now, either. After a 3-4 start and no snaps in the preseason, Peyton has them rolling...but no team in the NFL has overperformed more than the Atlanta Falcons, and rookie QB Matt Ryan. It should be a tight race between the two, and I wouldn't be disappointed either way, but Ryan's success, as a rookie, taking into account the state of the franchise when he arrived, ought to give him the edge.
Way to Mess up my playoff scenarios, Baltimore...
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Result: Ravens 33-24
That was a disgraceful end to Texas stadium. The Cowboys do not deserve to be in the playoffs, but every time they screw up, the fates conspire to bail them out. Now they'll need a win over the Eagles to get into the postseason. The Eagles looked AWFUL against the skins, and may have fallen back into their losing ways, so Dallas is likely bound for the playoffs...but again, they don't deserve it...
True #1
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Result: Titans 31-14
Tennessee earned the #1 seed, plain and simple. No discussion needed. Pittsburgh is a good 2-seed, and unless Indy and/or New England make some noise, the Titans/Steelers rematch for the AFC championship would be a game no true football fan could miss.
Ho-Hum
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
My Pick: Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Result: Dolphins 38-31
It's Miami, so of course they had to play less-than-great, allow KC to stay in the game the whole way, and barely win it late. That's just how Miami plays against lesser opponents. Next week, they'll step it up for the Jets, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. Miami wins, and they're in. They lose, and the Pats, who should beat the Bills (they've had their number for how long now?) would get the division title. It doesn't seem right that the Fins can win, take the division, and potentially keep an 11-5 team, let alone last year's super bowl runners-up, out of the postseason.
Still can't win in the East, can they...
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
My Pick: Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Result: Pats 47-7
My favorite line uttered by a TV commentator this week has to be when the FOX guys were headed to break late in the Pats game and said, with a great deal of disdain and apathy, "We'll be right back...Pats lead by 40!" Yikes! Arizona is in, but it will be interesting to see if they can get a postseason win, even as well as they've played at home. The Pats, unfortunately for them, need a win at Buffalo and a Jets or Ravens loss to get into the postseason. If all 3 win, the Pats are the odd man out.
No...One...Cares
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
My Pick: Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Result: Bengals 14-0
Haha, Cleveland couldn't even score once. Disgusting.
Skip Bayless, you just made my list of things to do today...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
Result: Skins 10-3
Granted, I would have picked the Eagles anyway, but Skip Bayless rambling on and on all week on ESPN about how the Eagles were the BEST team in the NFL (I know, I know....he really said it though!) had skewed my view of them a bit. I'm surprised, in retrospect, that I didn't call that game a Linebuster. I was starting to believe the hype. I know Skip Bayless isn't the world's foremost authority on, well, anything...but Philly is obviously nothing special. They need to win and get a LOT of help, as the Vikings would have to lose to the Giants (possible, but New York isn't playing for anything...) AND the Bucs would have to lose at home to the Raiders (umm...not likely).
Knew it would be close, but I feel bad for the Rams
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Result: 49ers 17-16
The reason I feel bad for the Rams is due to the way this game folded out. They had it won, but just couldn't hold the 49ers. It'll be interesting to see if Haslett gets the full time gig next year.
They surprise me every time...
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
My Pick: Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
Result: Falcons 24-17
Matt Ryan has that team playing so well...I saw their upcoming schedule a few weeks ago, and though they would never make it to the playoffs, having to go through Tampa and Minnesota...but they won both games, and are now guaranteed of a playoff berth. Kudos, Atlanta. You've earned it. They can still win the division, by the way, if they beat the Rams (likely) and the Panthers lose at New Orleans (possible...). Minnesota could still miss the playoffs. They've got to beat the Giants, which is no small task, or they have to hope that the Bears lose at Houston. Considering what could be on the line, I doubt the Bears will lose.
0-16, here we come!
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
Result: Saints 42-7
First of all, I knew better. I was just being hopeful. That was Detroit's shot, and now the Lions are destined to go down in history as the only team to go winless for a 16-game NFL season. Ouch.
You Morons
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Result: Seahawks 13-3
The Seahawks are relevant again! For one week, anyway. The Jets are an absolute disgrace, going out to lowly Seattle and scoring only 3 points. Seriously, what is it with that team and long plane trips? Jets lose, and they're obviously done. They win, and they may be done, too. Either Baltimore or New England would have to lose, and given the importance of those two teams' games, and the weakness of their opposition, it looks like the Jets' "magical" season will end in week 17! Stupid Jets.
See? Every other week...
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Result: Raiders 27-16
They stink one week, and are competitive the next. Must be Tom Cable's coaching style. Speaking of people who we will never hear from again...
Haha, Go Bills?
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
Result: Bills 30-23
This is the first game I can remember that I was happy about a Buffalo win for reasons other than liking the Bills. I can't wait to see that Broncos/Chargers game for all the marbles next week, especially after Ed Hochuli cost the Chargers round one with his blown call. Or his proper call, and stupid early whistle, depending on how you look at it. Broncos/Chargers, Sunday Night, AFC West on the line. May as well be a playoff game. Awesome.
Of course, two things had to happen to set up the AFC West showdown...
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Result: Chargers 41-24
It is hilarious that the Chargers were as bad as they were early in the season, had a very outside chance to make the playoffs a 4-8, and have had everything line up for them to control their own fate. Denver has lost two weeks in a row, San Diego has won 2 in a row. Go Chargers! I like the Bucs, and would still LOVE to see 3 NFC South teams rewarded with playoff spots after how great the conference was all year long. Tampa must win. Dallas must lose. It's that simple.
#1 in the NFC. Was there ever a question?
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Result: Giants 30-24 (ot)
They may be back to the Giants of mid-season. Someone is always there to step up and make the plays neccessary to win games. This week, it was Derrick Ward. Amazing. Both teams are in the playoffs, but Carolina could fall to the wild card if they lose to the Saints and the Falcons beat the Rams. The Giants have their much-deserved home field advantage. We'll see if it helps them...New York postseason pressure might be a lot to handle.
Keeping the Dream Alive
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Result: Bears 20-17 (ot)
The Bears should have lost that game. I was sure that the moronic horse collar on the kick return late in the game would allow the Packers to hit the field goal and win it, but the Bears, always winning it with defense and special teams, came up with a block. Now they're in a decent spot to make the playoffs, as they play Houston, and Minnesota plays the best team in the NFC, the New York Giants. A win and a Minny loss would give them the division.
Linebusters: 4-1 (40-39-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 9-7 (146-90-1)
Now that I've got everything back above .500 with one week to go, I'm feeling pretty confident. The Jets are a disgrace, and since Fins and Jets fans both HATE the Patriots, I think it's only fitting that the Jets beat Miami, allowing the Pats to win the AFC east and get in the playoffs while the Jets and Fins both sit at home!
MVP Talk May Be A Little Much...
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Result: Colts 31-24
Yeah, the Colts won their 8th in a row, but they didn't look very impressive. It took some late heroics. I'm not so sure that Peyton is the league's MVP right now, either. After a 3-4 start and no snaps in the preseason, Peyton has them rolling...but no team in the NFL has overperformed more than the Atlanta Falcons, and rookie QB Matt Ryan. It should be a tight race between the two, and I wouldn't be disappointed either way, but Ryan's success, as a rookie, taking into account the state of the franchise when he arrived, ought to give him the edge.
Way to Mess up my playoff scenarios, Baltimore...
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Result: Ravens 33-24
That was a disgraceful end to Texas stadium. The Cowboys do not deserve to be in the playoffs, but every time they screw up, the fates conspire to bail them out. Now they'll need a win over the Eagles to get into the postseason. The Eagles looked AWFUL against the skins, and may have fallen back into their losing ways, so Dallas is likely bound for the playoffs...but again, they don't deserve it...
True #1
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Result: Titans 31-14
Tennessee earned the #1 seed, plain and simple. No discussion needed. Pittsburgh is a good 2-seed, and unless Indy and/or New England make some noise, the Titans/Steelers rematch for the AFC championship would be a game no true football fan could miss.
Ho-Hum
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
My Pick: Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Result: Dolphins 38-31
It's Miami, so of course they had to play less-than-great, allow KC to stay in the game the whole way, and barely win it late. That's just how Miami plays against lesser opponents. Next week, they'll step it up for the Jets, but I'm not sure it'll be enough. Miami wins, and they're in. They lose, and the Pats, who should beat the Bills (they've had their number for how long now?) would get the division title. It doesn't seem right that the Fins can win, take the division, and potentially keep an 11-5 team, let alone last year's super bowl runners-up, out of the postseason.
Still can't win in the East, can they...
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
My Pick: Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Result: Pats 47-7
My favorite line uttered by a TV commentator this week has to be when the FOX guys were headed to break late in the Pats game and said, with a great deal of disdain and apathy, "We'll be right back...Pats lead by 40!" Yikes! Arizona is in, but it will be interesting to see if they can get a postseason win, even as well as they've played at home. The Pats, unfortunately for them, need a win at Buffalo and a Jets or Ravens loss to get into the postseason. If all 3 win, the Pats are the odd man out.
No...One...Cares
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
My Pick: Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Result: Bengals 14-0
Haha, Cleveland couldn't even score once. Disgusting.
Skip Bayless, you just made my list of things to do today...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
Result: Skins 10-3
Granted, I would have picked the Eagles anyway, but Skip Bayless rambling on and on all week on ESPN about how the Eagles were the BEST team in the NFL (I know, I know....he really said it though!) had skewed my view of them a bit. I'm surprised, in retrospect, that I didn't call that game a Linebuster. I was starting to believe the hype. I know Skip Bayless isn't the world's foremost authority on, well, anything...but Philly is obviously nothing special. They need to win and get a LOT of help, as the Vikings would have to lose to the Giants (possible, but New York isn't playing for anything...) AND the Bucs would have to lose at home to the Raiders (umm...not likely).
Knew it would be close, but I feel bad for the Rams
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Result: 49ers 17-16
The reason I feel bad for the Rams is due to the way this game folded out. They had it won, but just couldn't hold the 49ers. It'll be interesting to see if Haslett gets the full time gig next year.
They surprise me every time...
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
My Pick: Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
Result: Falcons 24-17
Matt Ryan has that team playing so well...I saw their upcoming schedule a few weeks ago, and though they would never make it to the playoffs, having to go through Tampa and Minnesota...but they won both games, and are now guaranteed of a playoff berth. Kudos, Atlanta. You've earned it. They can still win the division, by the way, if they beat the Rams (likely) and the Panthers lose at New Orleans (possible...). Minnesota could still miss the playoffs. They've got to beat the Giants, which is no small task, or they have to hope that the Bears lose at Houston. Considering what could be on the line, I doubt the Bears will lose.
0-16, here we come!
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
Result: Saints 42-7
First of all, I knew better. I was just being hopeful. That was Detroit's shot, and now the Lions are destined to go down in history as the only team to go winless for a 16-game NFL season. Ouch.
You Morons
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Result: Seahawks 13-3
The Seahawks are relevant again! For one week, anyway. The Jets are an absolute disgrace, going out to lowly Seattle and scoring only 3 points. Seriously, what is it with that team and long plane trips? Jets lose, and they're obviously done. They win, and they may be done, too. Either Baltimore or New England would have to lose, and given the importance of those two teams' games, and the weakness of their opposition, it looks like the Jets' "magical" season will end in week 17! Stupid Jets.
See? Every other week...
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Result: Raiders 27-16
They stink one week, and are competitive the next. Must be Tom Cable's coaching style. Speaking of people who we will never hear from again...
Haha, Go Bills?
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
Result: Bills 30-23
This is the first game I can remember that I was happy about a Buffalo win for reasons other than liking the Bills. I can't wait to see that Broncos/Chargers game for all the marbles next week, especially after Ed Hochuli cost the Chargers round one with his blown call. Or his proper call, and stupid early whistle, depending on how you look at it. Broncos/Chargers, Sunday Night, AFC West on the line. May as well be a playoff game. Awesome.
Of course, two things had to happen to set up the AFC West showdown...
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Result: Chargers 41-24
It is hilarious that the Chargers were as bad as they were early in the season, had a very outside chance to make the playoffs a 4-8, and have had everything line up for them to control their own fate. Denver has lost two weeks in a row, San Diego has won 2 in a row. Go Chargers! I like the Bucs, and would still LOVE to see 3 NFC South teams rewarded with playoff spots after how great the conference was all year long. Tampa must win. Dallas must lose. It's that simple.
#1 in the NFC. Was there ever a question?
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Result: Giants 30-24 (ot)
They may be back to the Giants of mid-season. Someone is always there to step up and make the plays neccessary to win games. This week, it was Derrick Ward. Amazing. Both teams are in the playoffs, but Carolina could fall to the wild card if they lose to the Saints and the Falcons beat the Rams. The Giants have their much-deserved home field advantage. We'll see if it helps them...New York postseason pressure might be a lot to handle.
Keeping the Dream Alive
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Result: Bears 20-17 (ot)
The Bears should have lost that game. I was sure that the moronic horse collar on the kick return late in the game would allow the Packers to hit the field goal and win it, but the Bears, always winning it with defense and special teams, came up with a block. Now they're in a decent spot to make the playoffs, as they play Houston, and Minnesota plays the best team in the NFC, the New York Giants. A win and a Minny loss would give them the division.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK SIXTEEN
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Jags are down, the Colts are up. A win by Indy would ensure them of a playoff spot, even with Tennessee coming up to finish off the season. Trust me, the Colts do NOT want the Titans game to be a must-win. They'll be playing hard.
Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
Call it wishful thinking, but I'm still not convinced the Cowboys are "back". Before the season, they were expected to easily roll into the playoffs, yet we're in week 16, and they could still miss the postseason entirely. Much like the Colts, the Cowboys don't want their fate to come down to week 17, especially when their matchup with the Eagles could be a playoff game for Philly, too. One more loss could mean no playoffs for the Ravens, too. But I think Dallas has more talent.
Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
The Steelers are favored AT Tennessee? Yikes. I was ready to pick Pittsburgh because I'm just not sure the Titans can run the ball that well against the Steelers, and I can't guarantee that Tennessee's pass rush will be very good without Haynesworth...but after such a good start, the Titans are desperate to show that it wasn't a fluke. I'm sure they're also not happy to be underdogs at home in a game that will determine the #1 seed in the AFC. Plus the Steelers are too relaxed, having already shored up a first-round bye. They're not as desperate. I like the Steelers, but I'm not sure they're a 1-seed.
Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
Miami knows that if they win, they could be playing the Jets next week for a spot in the playoffs. Though they generally play down to the competition, there is no way that the importance of this game is lost on them.
Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
Well, I see Vegas has caught on to the Cards' troubles in the East. This is an awfully big spread. Of course, the Pats have a ton of experience, and really want to make the playoffs, so they're playing somewhat desperate, knowing that the Jets hold the tiebreaker over them. I'll take the desperate Pats against the Easternly-hapless Cards.
Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
Does anyone care about these teams anymore? There are so many great, important games this week that the Browns/Bengals game will get lost in the shuffle. Ken Dorsey gives the Bengals a shot at a win, and maybe a little more respect.
Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
Some people are saying that the Eagles are playing the best football in the whole NFL right now! They'll need to win out to have a shot at the postseason, and this is the easier of the two games. Washington is on the down-swing, and Philly should handle them.
Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
Yet another meaningless game. Haslett is trying to impress the Rams so that they'll give him the full time job next year, and I'd expect him to have his players ready to go. I'm not saying they'll win, but they should keep it close.
Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
After the way Tarvaris Jackson played last week in Arizona, how can I go against him at home? Both teams are playing for playoff spots, and a Minnesota win would lock them in as NFC North Champs. Atlanta probably needs to win out to make the postseason, so they have to be playing desperate. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota's Run D will make things tough for Michael Turner, and put a ton of pressure on Matt Ryan to perform. He's a great young QB, but this is a tough situation for him. I hope he succeeds, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
With only 2 games separating the Lions from 0-16, they're playing desperate. New Orleans has nothing left to play for, is without Reggie Bush, and just lost its offensive coordinator, who took the head coaching job at Syracuse. Detroit has to know this is their shot.
Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
It would be very fitting for the Jets to blow their shot at the playoffs by losing in Seattle. They lost in San Diego, Oakland, and San Fran. All bad teams, but all long road trips. The difference with this game? There is A LOT on the line for New York, and they are well aware that they've been playing like crap out west. They'll change their routine a bit, prepare hard, and be ready for an underperforming Seahawks team.
Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
The Texans have been playing well, and deserves to have at least a .500 record at season's end. The Raiders have been very inconsistent...always bad, but inconsistently bad...you don't know if they'll lose by 4 or 40! Last week they lost by a ton. This week, at home, I don't think they'll lose by as much.
Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Bills D should be able to control Denver at least a little bit, and if the Bills can score on any defense in the league, it's Denver's. I'd love to see the Bills win to set up a one-game playoff scenario for the AFC West title between Denver and San Diego next week. I don't think they will, but I also doubt they'll get blown out.
Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
Again, I want to see that Denver-San Diego game mean something next week. Garcia is questionable for Tampa, and though the Bucs need 2 wins to all-but guarantee a playoff spot, one win would be enough if the Falcons lose to Vikings and the Eagles lose to the Cowboys. So there is some desperation, but a loss wouldn't eliminate them. I'm not sure San Diego will win, but Tampa rarely wins by more than a field goal, so I feel very safe going against the spread.
Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
The Giants have lost two in a row, and I just can't picture them losing three. Carolina's run game will have a hard time with the Giants' D, and Eli Manning will step up and have a huge game. Plus the Giants absolutely deserve home-field after the way they've played this season in defense of their title.
Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
The Packers have nothing to play for, although these NFC North rivalries generally bring out the best in everyone. The Bears, however, must win or they are done. If the Vikings win on Sunday, though, the Bears are done anyway. So as of right now, there is no way to guarantee that Chicago will be playing with desperation. Here's hoping...
Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Line: Colts -6.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Jags are down, the Colts are up. A win by Indy would ensure them of a playoff spot, even with Tennessee coming up to finish off the season. Trust me, the Colts do NOT want the Titans game to be a must-win. They'll be playing hard.
Colts -6.5. Indy runs away with it 31-14.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 39.5
Call it wishful thinking, but I'm still not convinced the Cowboys are "back". Before the season, they were expected to easily roll into the playoffs, yet we're in week 16, and they could still miss the postseason entirely. Much like the Colts, the Cowboys don't want their fate to come down to week 17, especially when their matchup with the Eagles could be a playoff game for Philly, too. One more loss could mean no playoffs for the Ravens, too. But I think Dallas has more talent.
Cowboys -4. Dallas wins it 24-16.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 44.5
The Steelers are favored AT Tennessee? Yikes. I was ready to pick Pittsburgh because I'm just not sure the Titans can run the ball that well against the Steelers, and I can't guarantee that Tennessee's pass rush will be very good without Haynesworth...but after such a good start, the Titans are desperate to show that it wasn't a fluke. I'm sure they're also not happy to be underdogs at home in a game that will determine the #1 seed in the AFC. Plus the Steelers are too relaxed, having already shored up a first-round bye. They're not as desperate. I like the Steelers, but I'm not sure they're a 1-seed.
Titans +2. Even with the injuries, the Titans win 17-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Dolphins -4
O/U: 40
Miami knows that if they win, they could be playing the Jets next week for a spot in the playoffs. Though they generally play down to the competition, there is no way that the importance of this game is lost on them.
Dolphins -4. Miami keeps the dream alive 27-14.
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -8
O/U: 45
Well, I see Vegas has caught on to the Cards' troubles in the East. This is an awfully big spread. Of course, the Pats have a ton of experience, and really want to make the playoffs, so they're playing somewhat desperate, knowing that the Jets hold the tiebreaker over them. I'll take the desperate Pats against the Easternly-hapless Cards.
Pats -8. New England pushes the Cards to 0-5 in the East 34-20.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 33.5
Does anyone care about these teams anymore? There are so many great, important games this week that the Browns/Bengals game will get lost in the shuffle. Ken Dorsey gives the Bengals a shot at a win, and maybe a little more respect.
Bengals +3. Cincinnati gets the meaningless W 17-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 38.5
Some people are saying that the Eagles are playing the best football in the whole NFL right now! They'll need to win out to have a shot at the postseason, and this is the easier of the two games. Washington is on the down-swing, and Philly should handle them.
Eagles -5. Philly sets up a pre-playoff playoff game against Dallas in week 17. 27-12.
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 44
Yet another meaningless game. Haslett is trying to impress the Rams so that they'll give him the full time job next year, and I'd expect him to have his players ready to go. I'm not saying they'll win, but they should keep it close.
Rams +5.5. San Fran wins by a field goal, 27-24.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3
O/U: 44
After the way Tarvaris Jackson played last week in Arizona, how can I go against him at home? Both teams are playing for playoff spots, and a Minnesota win would lock them in as NFC North Champs. Atlanta probably needs to win out to make the postseason, so they have to be playing desperate. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota's Run D will make things tough for Michael Turner, and put a ton of pressure on Matt Ryan to perform. He's a great young QB, but this is a tough situation for him. I hope he succeeds, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Vikings -3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 50.5
With only 2 games separating the Lions from 0-16, they're playing desperate. New Orleans has nothing left to play for, is without Reggie Bush, and just lost its offensive coordinator, who took the head coaching job at Syracuse. Detroit has to know this is their shot.
Lions +7. Detroit will win one, just to piss me off...21-17.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Jets -4.5
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
It would be very fitting for the Jets to blow their shot at the playoffs by losing in Seattle. They lost in San Diego, Oakland, and San Fran. All bad teams, but all long road trips. The difference with this game? There is A LOT on the line for New York, and they are well aware that they've been playing like crap out west. They'll change their routine a bit, prepare hard, and be ready for an underperforming Seahawks team.
Jets -4.5. New York finally pulls off a west coast victory 34-17.
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Texans -7
O/U: 44
The Texans have been playing well, and deserves to have at least a .500 record at season's end. The Raiders have been very inconsistent...always bad, but inconsistently bad...you don't know if they'll lose by 4 or 40! Last week they lost by a ton. This week, at home, I don't think they'll lose by as much.
Raiders +7. Houston still wins 24-21.
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -7
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The Bills D should be able to control Denver at least a little bit, and if the Bills can score on any defense in the league, it's Denver's. I'd love to see the Bills win to set up a one-game playoff scenario for the AFC West title between Denver and San Diego next week. I don't think they will, but I also doubt they'll get blown out.
Bills +7. Denver wins it late. Classic Buffalo-Denver Battle. 24-22 Broncs.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
Again, I want to see that Denver-San Diego game mean something next week. Garcia is questionable for Tampa, and though the Bucs need 2 wins to all-but guarantee a playoff spot, one win would be enough if the Falcons lose to Vikings and the Eagles lose to the Cowboys. So there is some desperation, but a loss wouldn't eliminate them. I'm not sure San Diego will win, but Tampa rarely wins by more than a field goal, so I feel very safe going against the spread.
Chargers +3.5. San Diego wins 27-23.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
The Giants have lost two in a row, and I just can't picture them losing three. Carolina's run game will have a hard time with the Giants' D, and Eli Manning will step up and have a huge game. Plus the Giants absolutely deserve home-field after the way they've played this season in defense of their title.
Giants -3. New York shows who's boss 31-21.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -4
O/U: 41
The Packers have nothing to play for, although these NFC North rivalries generally bring out the best in everyone. The Bears, however, must win or they are done. If the Vikings win on Sunday, though, the Bears are done anyway. So as of right now, there is no way to guarantee that Chicago will be playing with desperation. Here's hoping...
Bears -4. Chicago should win even if the game doesn't matter. Bears 27-20.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
RECAP - WEEK FIFTEEN
This Week: 8-5-3 (106-109-8)
Linebusters: 1-4 (36-38-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 11-5 (137-83-1)
Nice job by Vegas this week...3 games finished right on the line! The NFL continues to baffle me, and I am amazed I pulled off a positive record this week, with the Jags, Texans, and Bengals all pulling off upsets. And are the Eagles a playoff team? It's that time of year...I will examine playoff possibilities as I recap this week's games!
So Close
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago grinds one out 23-17.
Result: Bears 27-24 (ot)
I thought Chicago had this one wrapped up when the Saints failed on 4th down in the fourth quarter with the Bears up 4, but the Saints just HAD to take things to OT...oh well. I'll take the tie. The Saints are done, and the Bears need a lot of help to get to the postseason...there are 4 solid teams in front of them for the wild card. Kudos to the Bears, though, as few expected them to be as good as they turned out to be.
Now they win...
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Packers -1.5
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers -1.5. Green Bay wins 28-13.
Result: Jaguars 20-16
They've been awful all year. But I guess the Packers have been pretty darn bad the last few weeks, too. Both of these teams are done, so let's not conern ourselves with their sagas.
Pride Game
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -17
O/U: 45
My Pick: Lions +17. Can't go with that big of a spread. Colts win 27-17.
Result: Colts 31-21
Detroit is likely to end up 0-16, although their last two games are against non-playoff teams, so Detroit will certainly have more to play for than their opponents. Indy is pretty safe, as this week they play the Jaguars, and with a win, would be safely into the playoffs. How? At 11-4, even with a loss in week 17 vs. the Titans, the Colts could only be tied by Baltimore and 2 of 3 teams from the AFC East. One of the AFC East teams would be a division champ, and not a wild card team. The Colts would win the tiebreaker over both based on record within the conference.
Skinned
Washington Redskins @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Skins -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Bengals +7. Washington wins 17-13.
Result: Bengals 20-13
Cincy won. Hooray. Both teams are finished. Sorry Washington. You'd need too much help to get to the postseason now.
More OT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa Wins 23-20.
Result: Falcons 13-10 (OT)
I honestly didn't expect the Falcons to win this game. They're really showing some grit late in the season. Maybe they're not such a longshot after all?! Both of these teams play a week 17 pancake, but each has a tough game next week. If both win, things will get VERY interesting. It is basically a 4-horse race for 2 spots in the NFC now, and with the Eagles and Cowboys playing each other, it is VERY unlikely that they will both make the playoffs (Bucs and Falcons would have to lose, and tiebreakers would have to give the nod to a 10-6 Cowboy team). If the Falcons and Bucs win out and are tied at 11-5, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, the NFC South will get both wild card spots. If the Cowboys win out too, the tiebreaker gets crazy, and may come down to strength of victory. I'm not sure I've ever seen that!
Swimming into the Postseason?
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -6.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Miami wins 20-16.
Result: Dolphins 14-9
It must be nice to hold your own destiny in your hands...The Dolphins would know. They play the Jets in week 17, and with a win, could either win the division or get a wild card spot, depending on what else happens this week. New England hosts Arizona (East coast trip means a loss for the Cards...) and then travels to Buffalo. I'm guessing they'll win the division. Baltimore visits desperate Dallas this week, and will likely lose, which will all-but put an end to their playoff hopes. So that puts likely 11-5 or 12-4 Indy in the 5-spot, and the Fins, if they beat the Jets, in the 6 spot. Interesting, eh? The Jets, if they beat the Fins, would win the division based on division record, pushing the Pats into the wild card spot. If the Ravens beat the Cowboys, things could get more interesting, but we can cross that bridge when, and if, we come to it. Let it suffice to say that the Jets vs. Fins game in week 17 will be a playoff game for both teams. 10-6 likely won't get it done in the AFC this year, though there are a couple scenarios in which it could happen. Much like the Ravens beating the Cowboys, let's deal with that situation next Tuesday, if it happens, as it would require a KC win over Miami or a NYJ loss to Seattle, both of which are highly unlikely.
Who Cares?
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle gets the W...23-13.
Result: Seahawks 23-20
They tied the spread. Whoopie. Moving on...
Season's Over in WNY
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bills +8. Gotta take my boys to keep it close, but the Jets to win 24-20.
Result: Jets 31-27
Whatever. Why would you pass late in the 4th with a lead? Because they're the Bills. I'm done worrying about them. My focus is on the playoffs at this point. For a Jets playoff scenario rundown, see the Dolphins recap above...
How?
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 31-20.
Result: Texans 13-12
Everybody can have an off game, but you've got to score more than 12 points against the Texans. That's awful. Tennessee has wrapped up the division, but really needed to win at Houston, as they're now forced to beat a very good Pittsburgh team to get the #1 seed and home field advantage for the playoffs. If they lose, they'd have to root for a Pittsburgh loss in week 17, and would have to beat the Colts. Neither is a sure thing. So this week's game against Pittsburgh is basically for the top spot in the AFC.
It's a Touchdown!
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Steelers +2. Pittsburgh wins 16-13.
Result: Steelers 13-9
It was right on the line. I understand the argument about no conclusive video evidence to overturn the call, but the side judge should have called it a TD on the field, in which case there would have been no evidence to overturn it, and there would be far less controversy. That's the beauty of football, though. Steelers fans can see that 100 times, and say that it was definitely in 100 times...and Ravens fans would tell you that it definitely was NOT in 100 times. Baltimore now needs to beat the Cowboys to have a true playoff shot, and I don't think they will. With a loss Saturday, Baltimore would need to pray for the Jets, Fins, and Pats to lose easily winnable games on Sunday, and I don't see it happening.
#1? Wow.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7.5
O/U: 48
My Pick: Panthers -7.5. Carolina wins 27-17.
Result: Panthers 30-10
The "Denver rule" is 3-0. Nice. Carolina now has a shot at the 1-seed out of the NFC. Wow. I don't think they'll beat the Giants, but we will find out on Sunday night. Carolina hasn't even officially wrapped up their division yet, and the Falcons and Bucs could realistically win out, so with a loss to the Giants, Carolina would likely need to win in New Orleans in week 17 to earn the NFC South title! Tiebreakers get confusing, but I think that the Panthers could still miss the playoffs. Again, we'll see what happens this week, and I'll iron things out a little better next week.
Two Points, Two Wins
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 45.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers -5.5. San Diego rolls 27-13.
Result: Chargers 22-21
How did they win by one point again? Crazy. San Diego loses to Tampa this week, and they're done. Otherwise, they still have a shot, but the Broncos only need one win to shore up the division and eliminate the Chargers, and they host the Bills this week. If the Bills win, and the Chargers win, San Diego will play Denver in week 17 for the division. After what happened the first time the two teams met, I'd love to see week 17 decide the division. Yet another pre-playoff playoff game!
So much for the Cards at Home!
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -3. Arizona is awfully good at home. Cards 29-24.
Result: Vikings 35-14
Arizona has locked up the NFC West, and is guaranteed at least a 4-seed, but could be only .500 entering the postseason. They travel east to face the Pats, and they haven't won in the east all year. They then host Seattle, and should win, but you never know. The AFC east could have an 8-8 division champ as well. Weird. The Vikes need only one win or one Bears loss to wrap up the North, but the Vikings have 2 tough games (Falcons, Giants) and the Bears have 2 easy-ish ones (GB, @ Houston). If they win out, though, Minnesota could still have a shot at a first-round bye, assuming a Giants loss against the Panthers!
Ok, fine...
New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Raiders +7.5. Oakland will be playing hard, but New England will still win 17-13.
Result: Pats 49-26
You can never predict when the Raiders will show up...this week, they didn't. The Pats should win their last two, which would give them the division with a Jets loss, or the wild card as long as Baltimore loses once. If Baltimore and the Jets win out, the Pats could miss the playoffs, as the Ravens would hold the tiebreaker on the Pats.
Big D's Big D
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 30-18.
Result: Cowboys 20-8
The Dallas D has really stepped it up lately, and will be the reason the Cowboys make the playoffs. That is, of course, assuming they do make the playoffs. The game against the Eagles will probably be huge, but if they lose to Baltimore this week, they may still be unable to make the postseason, even with a win over the Eagles. So the Cowboys only control their own destiny if they win out, and even then it could be a crazy tiebreaker with the Falcons and Bucs. New York can win this week and close out the #1 seed, which I think they deserve. After 2 losses in a row, I doubt they'll drop another one. If they do, however, a loss in week 17 against Minnesota could mean the Giants would have to play in the first round of the playoffs.
Not Good Enough?
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 39
Linebuster!
My Pick: Eagles -14. Only because Cleveland has NO O now. Philly 27-3.
Result: Eagles 30-10
Philly handled business this week, but may still be screwed. Too little too late. That tie against lowly Cincy would be the backbreaker. The Eagles should beat the Skins this week, but even if they beat the Cowboys, they could be 10-5-1 and looking up at a combination of the Panthers, Falcons, and Bucs at 11-5 or better. It is unlikely that the Falcons and Bucs will win out, though, so the Eagles, as well as they have been playing, may be playing a pre-playoff playoff game against the Cowboys in week 17.
Linebusters: 1-4 (36-38-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 11-5 (137-83-1)
Nice job by Vegas this week...3 games finished right on the line! The NFL continues to baffle me, and I am amazed I pulled off a positive record this week, with the Jags, Texans, and Bengals all pulling off upsets. And are the Eagles a playoff team? It's that time of year...I will examine playoff possibilities as I recap this week's games!
So Close
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago grinds one out 23-17.
Result: Bears 27-24 (ot)
I thought Chicago had this one wrapped up when the Saints failed on 4th down in the fourth quarter with the Bears up 4, but the Saints just HAD to take things to OT...oh well. I'll take the tie. The Saints are done, and the Bears need a lot of help to get to the postseason...there are 4 solid teams in front of them for the wild card. Kudos to the Bears, though, as few expected them to be as good as they turned out to be.
Now they win...
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Packers -1.5
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers -1.5. Green Bay wins 28-13.
Result: Jaguars 20-16
They've been awful all year. But I guess the Packers have been pretty darn bad the last few weeks, too. Both of these teams are done, so let's not conern ourselves with their sagas.
Pride Game
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -17
O/U: 45
My Pick: Lions +17. Can't go with that big of a spread. Colts win 27-17.
Result: Colts 31-21
Detroit is likely to end up 0-16, although their last two games are against non-playoff teams, so Detroit will certainly have more to play for than their opponents. Indy is pretty safe, as this week they play the Jaguars, and with a win, would be safely into the playoffs. How? At 11-4, even with a loss in week 17 vs. the Titans, the Colts could only be tied by Baltimore and 2 of 3 teams from the AFC East. One of the AFC East teams would be a division champ, and not a wild card team. The Colts would win the tiebreaker over both based on record within the conference.
Skinned
Washington Redskins @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Skins -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Bengals +7. Washington wins 17-13.
Result: Bengals 20-13
Cincy won. Hooray. Both teams are finished. Sorry Washington. You'd need too much help to get to the postseason now.
More OT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa Wins 23-20.
Result: Falcons 13-10 (OT)
I honestly didn't expect the Falcons to win this game. They're really showing some grit late in the season. Maybe they're not such a longshot after all?! Both of these teams play a week 17 pancake, but each has a tough game next week. If both win, things will get VERY interesting. It is basically a 4-horse race for 2 spots in the NFC now, and with the Eagles and Cowboys playing each other, it is VERY unlikely that they will both make the playoffs (Bucs and Falcons would have to lose, and tiebreakers would have to give the nod to a 10-6 Cowboy team). If the Falcons and Bucs win out and are tied at 11-5, and the Eagles beat the Cowboys, the NFC South will get both wild card spots. If the Cowboys win out too, the tiebreaker gets crazy, and may come down to strength of victory. I'm not sure I've ever seen that!
Swimming into the Postseason?
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -6.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Miami wins 20-16.
Result: Dolphins 14-9
It must be nice to hold your own destiny in your hands...The Dolphins would know. They play the Jets in week 17, and with a win, could either win the division or get a wild card spot, depending on what else happens this week. New England hosts Arizona (East coast trip means a loss for the Cards...) and then travels to Buffalo. I'm guessing they'll win the division. Baltimore visits desperate Dallas this week, and will likely lose, which will all-but put an end to their playoff hopes. So that puts likely 11-5 or 12-4 Indy in the 5-spot, and the Fins, if they beat the Jets, in the 6 spot. Interesting, eh? The Jets, if they beat the Fins, would win the division based on division record, pushing the Pats into the wild card spot. If the Ravens beat the Cowboys, things could get more interesting, but we can cross that bridge when, and if, we come to it. Let it suffice to say that the Jets vs. Fins game in week 17 will be a playoff game for both teams. 10-6 likely won't get it done in the AFC this year, though there are a couple scenarios in which it could happen. Much like the Ravens beating the Cowboys, let's deal with that situation next Tuesday, if it happens, as it would require a KC win over Miami or a NYJ loss to Seattle, both of which are highly unlikely.
Who Cares?
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle gets the W...23-13.
Result: Seahawks 23-20
They tied the spread. Whoopie. Moving on...
Season's Over in WNY
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bills +8. Gotta take my boys to keep it close, but the Jets to win 24-20.
Result: Jets 31-27
Whatever. Why would you pass late in the 4th with a lead? Because they're the Bills. I'm done worrying about them. My focus is on the playoffs at this point. For a Jets playoff scenario rundown, see the Dolphins recap above...
How?
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 31-20.
Result: Texans 13-12
Everybody can have an off game, but you've got to score more than 12 points against the Texans. That's awful. Tennessee has wrapped up the division, but really needed to win at Houston, as they're now forced to beat a very good Pittsburgh team to get the #1 seed and home field advantage for the playoffs. If they lose, they'd have to root for a Pittsburgh loss in week 17, and would have to beat the Colts. Neither is a sure thing. So this week's game against Pittsburgh is basically for the top spot in the AFC.
It's a Touchdown!
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Steelers +2. Pittsburgh wins 16-13.
Result: Steelers 13-9
It was right on the line. I understand the argument about no conclusive video evidence to overturn the call, but the side judge should have called it a TD on the field, in which case there would have been no evidence to overturn it, and there would be far less controversy. That's the beauty of football, though. Steelers fans can see that 100 times, and say that it was definitely in 100 times...and Ravens fans would tell you that it definitely was NOT in 100 times. Baltimore now needs to beat the Cowboys to have a true playoff shot, and I don't think they will. With a loss Saturday, Baltimore would need to pray for the Jets, Fins, and Pats to lose easily winnable games on Sunday, and I don't see it happening.
#1? Wow.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7.5
O/U: 48
My Pick: Panthers -7.5. Carolina wins 27-17.
Result: Panthers 30-10
The "Denver rule" is 3-0. Nice. Carolina now has a shot at the 1-seed out of the NFC. Wow. I don't think they'll beat the Giants, but we will find out on Sunday night. Carolina hasn't even officially wrapped up their division yet, and the Falcons and Bucs could realistically win out, so with a loss to the Giants, Carolina would likely need to win in New Orleans in week 17 to earn the NFC South title! Tiebreakers get confusing, but I think that the Panthers could still miss the playoffs. Again, we'll see what happens this week, and I'll iron things out a little better next week.
Two Points, Two Wins
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 45.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers -5.5. San Diego rolls 27-13.
Result: Chargers 22-21
How did they win by one point again? Crazy. San Diego loses to Tampa this week, and they're done. Otherwise, they still have a shot, but the Broncos only need one win to shore up the division and eliminate the Chargers, and they host the Bills this week. If the Bills win, and the Chargers win, San Diego will play Denver in week 17 for the division. After what happened the first time the two teams met, I'd love to see week 17 decide the division. Yet another pre-playoff playoff game!
So much for the Cards at Home!
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cards -3. Arizona is awfully good at home. Cards 29-24.
Result: Vikings 35-14
Arizona has locked up the NFC West, and is guaranteed at least a 4-seed, but could be only .500 entering the postseason. They travel east to face the Pats, and they haven't won in the east all year. They then host Seattle, and should win, but you never know. The AFC east could have an 8-8 division champ as well. Weird. The Vikes need only one win or one Bears loss to wrap up the North, but the Vikings have 2 tough games (Falcons, Giants) and the Bears have 2 easy-ish ones (GB, @ Houston). If they win out, though, Minnesota could still have a shot at a first-round bye, assuming a Giants loss against the Panthers!
Ok, fine...
New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Raiders +7.5. Oakland will be playing hard, but New England will still win 17-13.
Result: Pats 49-26
You can never predict when the Raiders will show up...this week, they didn't. The Pats should win their last two, which would give them the division with a Jets loss, or the wild card as long as Baltimore loses once. If Baltimore and the Jets win out, the Pats could miss the playoffs, as the Ravens would hold the tiebreaker on the Pats.
Big D's Big D
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 30-18.
Result: Cowboys 20-8
The Dallas D has really stepped it up lately, and will be the reason the Cowboys make the playoffs. That is, of course, assuming they do make the playoffs. The game against the Eagles will probably be huge, but if they lose to Baltimore this week, they may still be unable to make the postseason, even with a win over the Eagles. So the Cowboys only control their own destiny if they win out, and even then it could be a crazy tiebreaker with the Falcons and Bucs. New York can win this week and close out the #1 seed, which I think they deserve. After 2 losses in a row, I doubt they'll drop another one. If they do, however, a loss in week 17 against Minnesota could mean the Giants would have to play in the first round of the playoffs.
Not Good Enough?
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 39
Linebuster!
My Pick: Eagles -14. Only because Cleveland has NO O now. Philly 27-3.
Result: Eagles 30-10
Philly handled business this week, but may still be screwed. Too little too late. That tie against lowly Cincy would be the backbreaker. The Eagles should beat the Skins this week, but even if they beat the Cowboys, they could be 10-5-1 and looking up at a combination of the Panthers, Falcons, and Bucs at 11-5 or better. It is unlikely that the Falcons and Bucs will win out, though, so the Eagles, as well as they have been playing, may be playing a pre-playoff playoff game against the Cowboys in week 17.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK FIFTEEN
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
In Chicago, in the cold and wind, that ball is awfully hard to catch. Which means the run game could determine this one, and the advantage there goes to the Bears, with the #6 run D in the league. Of course New Orleans could win it through the air, as Chicago's pass D is surprisingly bad, but I cannot overlook home field advantage and weather.
Bears -3. Chicago grinds one out 23-17.
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Packers -1.5
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
These teams are both done, as far as playoffs are concerned. But as Green Bay is not yet mathematically eliminated, they may come out playing hard. Let's call it the "bubble effect"...teams that are all-but dead seem to show one last sign of life before the fork is finally stuck in them. That and the Jags are terrible.
Packers -1.5. Green Bay wins 28-13.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -17
O/U: 45
I'm sure the Lions can't stop the Colts at all. Culpepper has missed practice this week, and is quesitonable for the game. They blew out the Bengals by 32 points, which makes 17 look like child's play. But it is so tough to call a game in which a team is getting so little respect, as they could come out and play the Colts close just to show some pride.
Lions +17. Can't go with that big of a spread. Colts win 27-17.
Washington Redskins @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Skins -7
O/U: 36.5
The Redskin D is solid, and Cincy won't score much...but with recent issues between Zorn and Portis, and very little offense to speak of anyway, I can't see the Skins blowing anybody out. Cincy is playing for pride, and even with Fitzpatrick under center, should stay within 7.
Bengals +7. Washington wins 17-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 44.5
Tampa won the first meeting by 15, and just had its defense exploited by the Panthers last week. They'll come out strong on defense, and will hold down Ryan and the Falcons, who may be a great story, but who will not make the playoffs.
Bucs +3. Tampa Wins 23-20.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -6.5
O/U: 41.5
No way. I will not go with the Dolphins. I hate the stupid Dolphins. Singletary is getting the most out of his squad right now, and they just knocked off two AFC East teams. Miami is excited to potentially make the playoffs after going 1-15 last year, but their excitement is not desperation, and though they should win, it shouldn't be by that many points.
49ers +6.5. Miami wins 20-16.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 43
Now this is a game I'm sure everyone is dying to see! Come on Seattle...if you can't beat the Rams, just pack it in.
Seahawks -3. Seattle gets the W...23-13.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 41
I am very tempted to go with my team, but they haven't bothered to score for the past two weeks. Sooner or later they will break out of the offensive slump...let's hope it's sooner. Especially since I have a vested interest in the Jets missing the postseason...you know, to prove my point that they're not that good...
Bills +8. Gotta take my boys to keep it close, but the Jets to win 24-20.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
Houston has been playing great, and has beaten some teams no one expected them to beat. But the Titans still have something to play for. If they lose out (and no, that's not out of the question, with the Colts and Steelers looming), the Colts could catch them at 12-4. I'm not going through detailed tiebreakers right now, but it looks like the Titans would still win the division. But after such a great start, they'd like to put it away...
Titans -3. Tennessee wins 31-20.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 34.5
The Ravens have now beaten the Eagles and Skins, but still don't have a win over a team that will likely be in the postseason. So if they beat the Steelers, it will be their biggest win of the year. Coming off of a few big wins, I think the Ravens may have gotten big heads, and the Steelers are the team that can knock them down a few rungs. Plus, in a game between the league's #1 and #2 defenses, you've got to take the team with a better O, as they're more likely to break through.
Steelers +2. Pittsburgh wins 16-13.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7.5
O/U: 48
This is the first week that employing the "Denver Technique" will go against my better judgement. My gut is strongly telling me that Denver, desperate to not be caught by the Chargers, will be playing very hard. I like the Panthers, but they are hot-and-cold, and you don't always know what you'll get. But I've got to go against my gut. It's the Broncos.
Panthers -7.5. Carolina wins 27-17.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 45.5
Linebuster!
The Chargers still think they can catch the Broncos, and they know they won't make the playoffs if they don't. They think they're a good team (they're wrong, but to each his own...) and thus they will be desperate against the Chiefs. Don't go against desperation.
Chargers -5.5. San Diego rolls 27-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
The Vikings start Tarvaris Jackson. They barely beat the Lions, and now they're starting Jackson in the desert. Yikes. The Bears may catch them even without suspensions!
Cards -3. Arizona is awfully good at home. Cards 29-24.
New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 39.5
If Cassel (death in the family) plays, they may win by 7. But not 7.5. And if he doesn't, they could lose.
Raiders +7.5. Oakland will be playing hard, but New England will still win 17-13.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 45
It seems as though this series is always back-and-forth. New York didn't play very well last week, and now that they've wrapped up the division, they may not be playing as hard. Then again, it's the Cowboys, so maybe they'll be out for blood. Who knows? But since the Giants won big at home, I think the Cowboys will do the same.
Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 30-18.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 39
Linebuster!
Cleveland won't score much. Philly will. They're desperate, and still have wild card hopes. They won't make it to the playoffs, but a team can dream, can't they?
Eagles -14. Only because Cleveland has NO O now. Philly 27-3.
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
In Chicago, in the cold and wind, that ball is awfully hard to catch. Which means the run game could determine this one, and the advantage there goes to the Bears, with the #6 run D in the league. Of course New Orleans could win it through the air, as Chicago's pass D is surprisingly bad, but I cannot overlook home field advantage and weather.
Bears -3. Chicago grinds one out 23-17.
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Packers -1.5
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
These teams are both done, as far as playoffs are concerned. But as Green Bay is not yet mathematically eliminated, they may come out playing hard. Let's call it the "bubble effect"...teams that are all-but dead seem to show one last sign of life before the fork is finally stuck in them. That and the Jags are terrible.
Packers -1.5. Green Bay wins 28-13.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -17
O/U: 45
I'm sure the Lions can't stop the Colts at all. Culpepper has missed practice this week, and is quesitonable for the game. They blew out the Bengals by 32 points, which makes 17 look like child's play. But it is so tough to call a game in which a team is getting so little respect, as they could come out and play the Colts close just to show some pride.
Lions +17. Can't go with that big of a spread. Colts win 27-17.
Washington Redskins @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Skins -7
O/U: 36.5
The Redskin D is solid, and Cincy won't score much...but with recent issues between Zorn and Portis, and very little offense to speak of anyway, I can't see the Skins blowing anybody out. Cincy is playing for pride, and even with Fitzpatrick under center, should stay within 7.
Bengals +7. Washington wins 17-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 44.5
Tampa won the first meeting by 15, and just had its defense exploited by the Panthers last week. They'll come out strong on defense, and will hold down Ryan and the Falcons, who may be a great story, but who will not make the playoffs.
Bucs +3. Tampa Wins 23-20.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -6.5
O/U: 41.5
No way. I will not go with the Dolphins. I hate the stupid Dolphins. Singletary is getting the most out of his squad right now, and they just knocked off two AFC East teams. Miami is excited to potentially make the playoffs after going 1-15 last year, but their excitement is not desperation, and though they should win, it shouldn't be by that many points.
49ers +6.5. Miami wins 20-16.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 43
Now this is a game I'm sure everyone is dying to see! Come on Seattle...if you can't beat the Rams, just pack it in.
Seahawks -3. Seattle gets the W...23-13.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -8
O/U: 41
I am very tempted to go with my team, but they haven't bothered to score for the past two weeks. Sooner or later they will break out of the offensive slump...let's hope it's sooner. Especially since I have a vested interest in the Jets missing the postseason...you know, to prove my point that they're not that good...
Bills +8. Gotta take my boys to keep it close, but the Jets to win 24-20.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
Linebuster!
Houston has been playing great, and has beaten some teams no one expected them to beat. But the Titans still have something to play for. If they lose out (and no, that's not out of the question, with the Colts and Steelers looming), the Colts could catch them at 12-4. I'm not going through detailed tiebreakers right now, but it looks like the Titans would still win the division. But after such a great start, they'd like to put it away...
Titans -3. Tennessee wins 31-20.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 34.5
The Ravens have now beaten the Eagles and Skins, but still don't have a win over a team that will likely be in the postseason. So if they beat the Steelers, it will be their biggest win of the year. Coming off of a few big wins, I think the Ravens may have gotten big heads, and the Steelers are the team that can knock them down a few rungs. Plus, in a game between the league's #1 and #2 defenses, you've got to take the team with a better O, as they're more likely to break through.
Steelers +2. Pittsburgh wins 16-13.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7.5
O/U: 48
This is the first week that employing the "Denver Technique" will go against my better judgement. My gut is strongly telling me that Denver, desperate to not be caught by the Chargers, will be playing very hard. I like the Panthers, but they are hot-and-cold, and you don't always know what you'll get. But I've got to go against my gut. It's the Broncos.
Panthers -7.5. Carolina wins 27-17.
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 45.5
Linebuster!
The Chargers still think they can catch the Broncos, and they know they won't make the playoffs if they don't. They think they're a good team (they're wrong, but to each his own...) and thus they will be desperate against the Chiefs. Don't go against desperation.
Chargers -5.5. San Diego rolls 27-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
The Vikings start Tarvaris Jackson. They barely beat the Lions, and now they're starting Jackson in the desert. Yikes. The Bears may catch them even without suspensions!
Cards -3. Arizona is awfully good at home. Cards 29-24.
New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 39.5
If Cassel (death in the family) plays, they may win by 7. But not 7.5. And if he doesn't, they could lose.
Raiders +7.5. Oakland will be playing hard, but New England will still win 17-13.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 45
It seems as though this series is always back-and-forth. New York didn't play very well last week, and now that they've wrapped up the division, they may not be playing as hard. Then again, it's the Cowboys, so maybe they'll be out for blood. Who knows? But since the Giants won big at home, I think the Cowboys will do the same.
Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 30-18.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 39
Linebuster!
Cleveland won't score much. Philly will. They're desperate, and still have wild card hopes. They won't make it to the playoffs, but a team can dream, can't they?
Eagles -14. Only because Cleveland has NO O now. Philly 27-3.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
RECAP - WEEK FOURTEEN
This Week: 7-9 (98-104-5)
Linebusters: 0-5 (35-34-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 9-7 (126-78-1)
What the hell happened? Well, I'll tell you what happened. We're back to teams refusing to show up for whole games at a time, which then requires me to predict the team that has its head up its behind rather than just picking the better team.
We saw this coming.
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Chargers -9.5. I think Oakland has given up. Chargers win 31-13.
Result: Chargers 34-7
The Chargers were bound to play a good game sooner or later that would make everyone think that maybe, just maybe, the Chargers were still a winning team. They're not.
Blowout
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -13.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Colts -13.5. Indy wins 33-13.
Result: Colts 35-3
Even worse than I expected. Nice job, Indy. Way to make Cincy look stupid.
Yep, they're that bad
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -6.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Bears -6.5. Chicago wins big at home 34-17.
Result: Bears 23-10
Chicago controlled this game pretty easily. If Minnesota loses the Williams boys, the Bears could still win the division!
We Want Brett
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -5.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Packers -5.5. Green Bay wins at Lambeau 27-21.
Result: Texans 24-21
If you close your eyes and listen closely, you can hear them chanting all the way from Green Bay. We want Brett. We want Brett. The Packers have lost two winnable games in a row at Lambeau, and will not be in the postseason. That's unacceptable if you play in Green Bay.
Still Rollin
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -14
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Titans -14. How can I not go with it? Tennessee Wins 30-10.
Result: Titans 28-9
Pretty darn close on that final. You had to expect it though. Dorsey can't do much, and the Titans have a heck of a running game.
Pathetic
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Line: Vikings -9.5
O/U: n/a
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings -9.5. Minny runs away with it 30-13.
Result: Vikings 20-16
The Lions will likely be 0-16 when the season concludes (hooray! I've been dying to see that happen...), and the Vikings almost became the only non-blemish on their perfectly imperfect record. Stupid Vikings. What will you do when the Williams' get suspended? Lose, that's what.
Quality Win #2
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -5
O/U: 35.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Skins +5. Washington wins outright 17-13.
Result: Ravens 24-10
Ok, so now they've beaten the Skins and Eagles. Ed Reed is awesome. We knew that. Will they hold up in the postseason, though? I doubt it. Flacco is just too young to lead a team without too many other options to the promised land.
I'm a moron
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -7. The Giants come away with the W 34-21.
Result: Eagles 20-14
I should only go against my gut when it comes to the Broncos...here I went against it because I just thought the Giants were too good. Also of note, Westbrook was questionable when I picked the game. But no excuses. I should have picked the Eagles, because I just had a feeling this could happen.
Good, why not just ruin everyone's season?
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 51
My Pick: Saints -3. New Orleans gets the passing attack working and wins 36-28.
Result: Saints 29-25
The Saints can't catch the Panthers or Bucs, realistically, but by dropping the Falcons down a notch, they effectively hurt the conference. Instead of potentially getting both wild card slots, the South could get only one, as the Falcons will now have a very hard time getting in front of all of those NFC East teams.
Again, go with the gut...
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Jets -4
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Jets -4. New York wins 28-23.
Result: 49ers 24-14
I knew it. The Jets can't travel that far and play well. Damn. I only picked them because I feel like a jerk every time I talk about how bad I still think they are despite being on top of that division. Well Jets fans, you can't really disagree with it now. They're just not consistent enough to be a contender. Unless they pull a Giant-like run in the postseason, they won't be a factor.
Toronto Sucks
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (in Toronto, Ont.)
Line: pk
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo damn well better win this game. 23-20.
Result: Dolphins 16-3
Seriously? 3 points again? Click this link to get my views on this one...
It Works!
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Chiefs +9. The Denver Rule=Always go against your gut. Broncos still win 33-30.
Result: Broncos 24-17
The go-against-your-gut-when-it's-the-Broncos rule continues to work! Excellent...
The Best of the Worst
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -14
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Cards -14. Arizona wins 34-10.
Result: Cards 34-10
WOO-HOO! I got an exact score, finally. Congrats, Arizona. You're the best team in the NFC West, which means you have the upper hand against three of the worst teams in the league. At least the AFC West has Denver and San Diego. Of course, I shouldn't mock, as my Bills will now become the NFL team with the longest playoff drought. The 2000's have not been good for Western NY.
Good Riddance
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Cowboys +2.5. I hate to pick the Boys, but I have to go with my gut. Dallas 23-20.
Result: Steelers 20-13
Pittsburgh is a good team, but Cowboy fans have to be pissed. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, I don't expect the city of Dallas to survive.
Awful
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Pats -4.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -4.5. New England cruises 30-10.
Result: Pats 24-21
Way to make me look stupid, New England. It was the Seahawks, for goodness sake.
Result Achieved...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 38.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa shows who should be #1 in the NFC South. 24-13.
Result: Panthers 38-23
Well, Tampa showed who should be #1 in the NFC South, alright. No defense at all will do that to a team. 3rd and 4 with just over two minutes left, Carolina ball in a one-score game. Obvious run. And Williams breaks it for a TD. Really Tampa? Yikes.
Linebusters: 0-5 (35-34-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 9-7 (126-78-1)
What the hell happened? Well, I'll tell you what happened. We're back to teams refusing to show up for whole games at a time, which then requires me to predict the team that has its head up its behind rather than just picking the better team.
We saw this coming.
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Chargers -9.5. I think Oakland has given up. Chargers win 31-13.
Result: Chargers 34-7
The Chargers were bound to play a good game sooner or later that would make everyone think that maybe, just maybe, the Chargers were still a winning team. They're not.
Blowout
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -13.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Colts -13.5. Indy wins 33-13.
Result: Colts 35-3
Even worse than I expected. Nice job, Indy. Way to make Cincy look stupid.
Yep, they're that bad
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -6.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Bears -6.5. Chicago wins big at home 34-17.
Result: Bears 23-10
Chicago controlled this game pretty easily. If Minnesota loses the Williams boys, the Bears could still win the division!
We Want Brett
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -5.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Packers -5.5. Green Bay wins at Lambeau 27-21.
Result: Texans 24-21
If you close your eyes and listen closely, you can hear them chanting all the way from Green Bay. We want Brett. We want Brett. The Packers have lost two winnable games in a row at Lambeau, and will not be in the postseason. That's unacceptable if you play in Green Bay.
Still Rollin
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -14
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Titans -14. How can I not go with it? Tennessee Wins 30-10.
Result: Titans 28-9
Pretty darn close on that final. You had to expect it though. Dorsey can't do much, and the Titans have a heck of a running game.
Pathetic
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Line: Vikings -9.5
O/U: n/a
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings -9.5. Minny runs away with it 30-13.
Result: Vikings 20-16
The Lions will likely be 0-16 when the season concludes (hooray! I've been dying to see that happen...), and the Vikings almost became the only non-blemish on their perfectly imperfect record. Stupid Vikings. What will you do when the Williams' get suspended? Lose, that's what.
Quality Win #2
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -5
O/U: 35.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Skins +5. Washington wins outright 17-13.
Result: Ravens 24-10
Ok, so now they've beaten the Skins and Eagles. Ed Reed is awesome. We knew that. Will they hold up in the postseason, though? I doubt it. Flacco is just too young to lead a team without too many other options to the promised land.
I'm a moron
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -7. The Giants come away with the W 34-21.
Result: Eagles 20-14
I should only go against my gut when it comes to the Broncos...here I went against it because I just thought the Giants were too good. Also of note, Westbrook was questionable when I picked the game. But no excuses. I should have picked the Eagles, because I just had a feeling this could happen.
Good, why not just ruin everyone's season?
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 51
My Pick: Saints -3. New Orleans gets the passing attack working and wins 36-28.
Result: Saints 29-25
The Saints can't catch the Panthers or Bucs, realistically, but by dropping the Falcons down a notch, they effectively hurt the conference. Instead of potentially getting both wild card slots, the South could get only one, as the Falcons will now have a very hard time getting in front of all of those NFC East teams.
Again, go with the gut...
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Jets -4
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Jets -4. New York wins 28-23.
Result: 49ers 24-14
I knew it. The Jets can't travel that far and play well. Damn. I only picked them because I feel like a jerk every time I talk about how bad I still think they are despite being on top of that division. Well Jets fans, you can't really disagree with it now. They're just not consistent enough to be a contender. Unless they pull a Giant-like run in the postseason, they won't be a factor.
Toronto Sucks
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (in Toronto, Ont.)
Line: pk
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills pk. Buffalo damn well better win this game. 23-20.
Result: Dolphins 16-3
Seriously? 3 points again? Click this link to get my views on this one...
It Works!
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Chiefs +9. The Denver Rule=Always go against your gut. Broncos still win 33-30.
Result: Broncos 24-17
The go-against-your-gut-when-it's-the-Broncos rule continues to work! Excellent...
The Best of the Worst
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -14
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Cards -14. Arizona wins 34-10.
Result: Cards 34-10
WOO-HOO! I got an exact score, finally. Congrats, Arizona. You're the best team in the NFC West, which means you have the upper hand against three of the worst teams in the league. At least the AFC West has Denver and San Diego. Of course, I shouldn't mock, as my Bills will now become the NFL team with the longest playoff drought. The 2000's have not been good for Western NY.
Good Riddance
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Cowboys +2.5. I hate to pick the Boys, but I have to go with my gut. Dallas 23-20.
Result: Steelers 20-13
Pittsburgh is a good team, but Cowboy fans have to be pissed. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, I don't expect the city of Dallas to survive.
Awful
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Pats -4.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -4.5. New England cruises 30-10.
Result: Pats 24-21
Way to make me look stupid, New England. It was the Seahawks, for goodness sake.
Result Achieved...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 38.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa shows who should be #1 in the NFC South. 24-13.
Result: Panthers 38-23
Well, Tampa showed who should be #1 in the NFC South, alright. No defense at all will do that to a team. 3rd and 4 with just over two minutes left, Carolina ball in a one-score game. Obvious run. And Williams breaks it for a TD. Really Tampa? Yikes.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK FOURTEEN
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Keep in mind that a Raider win would tie them for second in the division with the Chargers. Also consider that the Chargers didn't exactly dispose of the Raiders with ease the last time the two teams met. The only factor making me wonder if this will be a Charger blowout is desperation...in front of a home crowd and a national TV audience on a Thursday night, San Diego would love to prove that they suck less than everyone thinks.
Chargers -9.5. I think Oakland has given up. Chargers win 31-13.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -13.5
O/U: 42
The Bengals won't score much against the Colts, but 14 points is a lot to win by. Cincy has a solid pass D, too. I'm very tempted to go against this one, but my thought is that the Indy offense didn't score any TDs last week in Cleveland, and now that they're coming home, they'd love to show off that passing attack in front of the Lucas Oil Faithful. Plus the two cities are relatively close together, so the atmosphere could be decent. Assuming Bengals fans care anymore.
Colts -13.5. Indy wins 33-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -6.5
O/U: 40
Jacksonville can't do much of anything lately. Chicago knows they likely have to win out to have a shot at the playoffs, and won't be taking any games lightly.
Bears -6.5. Chicago wins big at home 34-17.
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -5.5
O/U: 47
This is an absolute must-win for Green Bay. They're likely out of the playoff picture, but after giving Rodgers his big contract extension, they need to show the fans that they can at least hang around. Houston has a solid little offense, but Green Bay gets a lot of INTs, and Schaub is fresh off an injury and may make some mistakes.
Packers -5.5. Green Bay wins at Lambeau 27-21.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -14
O/U: 37.5
Cleveland may not be great at stopping the run, but their defense has held up pretty well recently. I was ready to pick against this, and was wondering why the spread was huge and the over/under was so low...and then I remembered...Derek Anderson tore his MCL, and is done for the year. So this team is now led by Ken Dorsey. Nuff Said.
Titans -14. How can I not go with it? Tennessee Wins 30-10.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Line: Vikings -9.5
O/U: n/a
Linebuster!
With the appeal of the Williams' suspensions, they should be able to play this week. Granted, this is a game Minny should win even without them. The Vikings need to ensure a win in case the Williams boys do find themselves out for the remainder of the year, as their loss could result in a tough couple of games leading into the playoffs, and Minnesota would hate to have a strange substance abuse issue cost them a postseason spot.
Vikings -9.5. Minny runs away with it 30-13.
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -5
O/U: 35.5
Linebuster!
Are the Ravens really that good? They have 8 wins, but have beaten the Browns and Bengals twice each, the Texans, the Raiders, and the Dolphins. Their only "quality" win was a blowout of Philly, and how "quality" was that win, really? The Skins are a solid team, especially on defense. If the Ravens win, it won't be by 5.
Skins +5. Washington wins outright 17-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43
Will the off-the-field issues catch up with the Giants? Antonio Pierce is off worrying about being deposed in front of a grand jury, not about the Eagles! Burress is done for the year. Last week, Pierce played great, as he finds football an escape from everything else. But how long can that last? The Eagles finally got the offense together last week, but can they keep it up against a much better defense? There will be a lot of emotion in this game, and though seven points is a lot, I just don't believe the Eagles can pull it all together two weeks in a row.
Giants -7. The Giants come away with the W 34-21.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 51
Atlanta has a very tough stretch coming up to end the season, and will likely find itself on the outside of the postseason looking in. New Orleans needs to win out to have any shot at the playoffs, though, so both teams are desperate. The kicker in this one is that the Falcons haven't won three in a row all season...and I don't think they will.
Saints -3. New Orleans gets the passing attack working and wins 36-28.
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Jets -4
O/U: 44.5
I hate all of this week's games. The Jets played like crap the last time they were on the west coast, losing to the lowly Raiders. But now they have confidence and are fighting to keep the division lead, so maybe they'll have their heads on straight. It's a matter of whether or not I think the Jets will show up. I hate to say it, but I think they will.
Jets -4. New York wins 28-23.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (in Toronto, Ont.)
Line: pk
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
This basically amounts to a neutral site game, as anyone who could afford tickets is likely not a fan of either team. Buffalo is struggling mightily, but the Fins are a rival, and if the Bills can get back on track, this is the game in which they may do it.
Bills pk. Buffalo damn well better win this game. 23-20.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9
O/U: 48.5
Denver is coming off a big win, and has a ton of confidence. Now they head home for a rematch with a team that beat them earlier in the year. They'll be amped up and ready to go, and should score a ton of points. The D shouldn't allow KC to get much going, and the Broncos should win the game easily. Which is precisely why I have to go the other way...
Chiefs +9. The Denver Rule=Always go against your gut. Broncos still win 33-30.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -14
O/U: 48.5
Again, what's with the huge lines this week? Seriously folks, I wouldn't place any bets this time around...things can just get too screwy with lines this big. The Cards should crush the Rams, especially coming off a loss. But will the Rams show up? I doubt it.
Cards -14. Arizona wins 34-10.
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 40
Dallas is piecing everything back together, and should be a tough opponent for Pittsburgh to handle. Though the Steelers have the #1 Passing, Rushing, and overall defense in the league, the Cowboys have the offensive firepower to break through it. But will the Dallas D hold up? I think they will for once.
Cowboys +2.5. I hate to pick the Boys, but I have to go with my gut. Dallas 23-20.
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Pats -4.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
I'm sick of dealing with the Seahawks. I call blowout.
Pats -4.5. New England cruises 30-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 38.5
Linebuster!
What a great game for a Monday Night! Huge divisional implications, two great teams...I'll definitely be watching this one! I've gotta go against the spread, because even though great teams usually split divisional games, Tampa KILLED the Panthers the last time out. I expect the Bucs D to be on point, and Garcia to be excellent. Tampa knows they should be first in the division, and this is their chance to take a commanding lead, with 2 wins (and the tiebreaker)over the team that would be 1 game back.
Bucs +3. Tampa shows who should be #1 in the NFC South. 24-13.
Line: Chargers -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Keep in mind that a Raider win would tie them for second in the division with the Chargers. Also consider that the Chargers didn't exactly dispose of the Raiders with ease the last time the two teams met. The only factor making me wonder if this will be a Charger blowout is desperation...in front of a home crowd and a national TV audience on a Thursday night, San Diego would love to prove that they suck less than everyone thinks.
Chargers -9.5. I think Oakland has given up. Chargers win 31-13.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -13.5
O/U: 42
The Bengals won't score much against the Colts, but 14 points is a lot to win by. Cincy has a solid pass D, too. I'm very tempted to go against this one, but my thought is that the Indy offense didn't score any TDs last week in Cleveland, and now that they're coming home, they'd love to show off that passing attack in front of the Lucas Oil Faithful. Plus the two cities are relatively close together, so the atmosphere could be decent. Assuming Bengals fans care anymore.
Colts -13.5. Indy wins 33-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -6.5
O/U: 40
Jacksonville can't do much of anything lately. Chicago knows they likely have to win out to have a shot at the playoffs, and won't be taking any games lightly.
Bears -6.5. Chicago wins big at home 34-17.
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -5.5
O/U: 47
This is an absolute must-win for Green Bay. They're likely out of the playoff picture, but after giving Rodgers his big contract extension, they need to show the fans that they can at least hang around. Houston has a solid little offense, but Green Bay gets a lot of INTs, and Schaub is fresh off an injury and may make some mistakes.
Packers -5.5. Green Bay wins at Lambeau 27-21.
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -14
O/U: 37.5
Cleveland may not be great at stopping the run, but their defense has held up pretty well recently. I was ready to pick against this, and was wondering why the spread was huge and the over/under was so low...and then I remembered...Derek Anderson tore his MCL, and is done for the year. So this team is now led by Ken Dorsey. Nuff Said.
Titans -14. How can I not go with it? Tennessee Wins 30-10.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Line: Vikings -9.5
O/U: n/a
Linebuster!
With the appeal of the Williams' suspensions, they should be able to play this week. Granted, this is a game Minny should win even without them. The Vikings need to ensure a win in case the Williams boys do find themselves out for the remainder of the year, as their loss could result in a tough couple of games leading into the playoffs, and Minnesota would hate to have a strange substance abuse issue cost them a postseason spot.
Vikings -9.5. Minny runs away with it 30-13.
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -5
O/U: 35.5
Linebuster!
Are the Ravens really that good? They have 8 wins, but have beaten the Browns and Bengals twice each, the Texans, the Raiders, and the Dolphins. Their only "quality" win was a blowout of Philly, and how "quality" was that win, really? The Skins are a solid team, especially on defense. If the Ravens win, it won't be by 5.
Skins +5. Washington wins outright 17-13.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43
Will the off-the-field issues catch up with the Giants? Antonio Pierce is off worrying about being deposed in front of a grand jury, not about the Eagles! Burress is done for the year. Last week, Pierce played great, as he finds football an escape from everything else. But how long can that last? The Eagles finally got the offense together last week, but can they keep it up against a much better defense? There will be a lot of emotion in this game, and though seven points is a lot, I just don't believe the Eagles can pull it all together two weeks in a row.
Giants -7. The Giants come away with the W 34-21.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 51
Atlanta has a very tough stretch coming up to end the season, and will likely find itself on the outside of the postseason looking in. New Orleans needs to win out to have any shot at the playoffs, though, so both teams are desperate. The kicker in this one is that the Falcons haven't won three in a row all season...and I don't think they will.
Saints -3. New Orleans gets the passing attack working and wins 36-28.
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Jets -4
O/U: 44.5
I hate all of this week's games. The Jets played like crap the last time they were on the west coast, losing to the lowly Raiders. But now they have confidence and are fighting to keep the division lead, so maybe they'll have their heads on straight. It's a matter of whether or not I think the Jets will show up. I hate to say it, but I think they will.
Jets -4. New York wins 28-23.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (in Toronto, Ont.)
Line: pk
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
This basically amounts to a neutral site game, as anyone who could afford tickets is likely not a fan of either team. Buffalo is struggling mightily, but the Fins are a rival, and if the Bills can get back on track, this is the game in which they may do it.
Bills pk. Buffalo damn well better win this game. 23-20.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -9
O/U: 48.5
Denver is coming off a big win, and has a ton of confidence. Now they head home for a rematch with a team that beat them earlier in the year. They'll be amped up and ready to go, and should score a ton of points. The D shouldn't allow KC to get much going, and the Broncos should win the game easily. Which is precisely why I have to go the other way...
Chiefs +9. The Denver Rule=Always go against your gut. Broncos still win 33-30.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -14
O/U: 48.5
Again, what's with the huge lines this week? Seriously folks, I wouldn't place any bets this time around...things can just get too screwy with lines this big. The Cards should crush the Rams, especially coming off a loss. But will the Rams show up? I doubt it.
Cards -14. Arizona wins 34-10.
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 40
Dallas is piecing everything back together, and should be a tough opponent for Pittsburgh to handle. Though the Steelers have the #1 Passing, Rushing, and overall defense in the league, the Cowboys have the offensive firepower to break through it. But will the Dallas D hold up? I think they will for once.
Cowboys +2.5. I hate to pick the Boys, but I have to go with my gut. Dallas 23-20.
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Pats -4.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
I'm sick of dealing with the Seahawks. I call blowout.
Pats -4.5. New England cruises 30-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 38.5
Linebuster!
What a great game for a Monday Night! Huge divisional implications, two great teams...I'll definitely be watching this one! I've gotta go against the spread, because even though great teams usually split divisional games, Tampa KILLED the Panthers the last time out. I expect the Bucs D to be on point, and Garcia to be excellent. Tampa knows they should be first in the division, and this is their chance to take a commanding lead, with 2 wins (and the tiebreaker)over the team that would be 1 game back.
Bucs +3. Tampa shows who should be #1 in the NFC South. 24-13.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
RECAP - WEEK THIRTEEN
This Week: 9-7 (91-95-5)
Linebusters: 5-0 (35-29-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 10-6 (117-71-1)
Not a terrible week. I wanted better, but I can appreciate being over .500.
Worst Ever Thanksgiving Day Defeat!
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
Line: Titans -11
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -11. Tennessee Rolls 31-13.
Result: Titans 47-10
You had to know that this was going to happen. The Lions are awful, and the Titans believe they're the best in the NFL.
Back?
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13
O/U: 47
My Pick: Cowboys -13. Dallas comes out firing 37-17.
Result: Cowboys 34-9
It may be Seattle, but Dallas played a very complete game on O & D. Don't rule them out as a contender just yet.
Of course they did...
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Cards +3. Arizona wins outright 31-19.
Result: Eagles 48-20
First off, I'm disgusted that I went against my "the Cards can't win in the East" philosophy. I'm also annoyed that I've been giving the Eagles credit for weeks, saying that it was time for them to break out of the slump and score a ton of points, and then they go and do it after I've lost faith in them. Jerks.
A New Strategy is Born!
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Broncos +7.5. The Broncos are never predictable, so I'll go against my gut. Jets 33-27.
Result: Broncos 34-17
For years, the Denver Broncos have been a thorn in my side, constantly doing the opposite of whatever I predicted. I finally decided to purposely go against my gut, and IT WORKED! Also, in case anyone was unsure as to why I have been down on the Jets, THIS IS WHY!!!
Game Over, Man. Game Over.
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Bills -6.5. Buffalo wins 33-23.
Result: 49ers 10-3
To aviod the use of profanity, all I will say is that the Bills will not make the playoffs, and will become the team that has been absent from the postseason the longest as soon as Arizona clinches. Bills fans haven't seen the postseason yet this century. Ouch. Also, 3 points? What the f#$% Buffalo?
Tampa in a Squeaker...Again!
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Saints +3.5. Tampa wins 23-21.
Result: Bucs 23-20
Doesn't get much closer than that. Go NFC South! I'd love to see 4 South teams and no East teams...(a.k.a. NO COWBOYS!). It won't happen, though...Dallas is back.
Stupid 4th and 1...
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 30-17.
Result: Panthers 35-31
You have to take the points late in the game on 4th and 1 at the goal line, but how terrible was the Packer D to just let Carolina march back down the field and score a touchdown? Yikes. The NFC North is basically Minny's division to lose now. Considering what everyone thought after week 3 or 4, that's quite a change.
The Best
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3.5
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -3.5. New York Skins 'em 31-16.
Result: Giants 23-7
Now that the Titans have lost, the Giants are absolutely the best team in the NFL. The question, though, will be whether or not they will let one slip away in the postseason due to the very likely absence of Plaxico. Goodell isn't going to let this go...Burress will likely be done for the year.
Never Bet on the Fins
Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Dolphins -7
O/U: n/a
My Pick: Dolphins -7. Miami wins 31-13.
Result: Fins 16-12
I should have known better. My unwritten rule was to never take the Fins as a heavy favorite. The Rams had to start playing better, and they did. Had I known at the time I picked the game that Steven Jackson would be back, I may have gone the other way, but that's no excuse. I should have never picked the Fins to cover 5+ points.
Whew!
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 23-10.
Result: Ravens 34-3
The whole time I was watching this game, I was convinced I had taken the Bengals to cover. Thankfully I was wrong. Baltimore has had the offense moving the last few games... with the Bills pretty much out of the race, they may be a playoff team!
No Offensive TDs. For Manning's Colts. Against the Browns. Really?
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 34-24.
Result: Colts 10-6
I would bet that no one called this. I'm sure people bet against the Colts and won, but I doubt anyone picked this final score, or anything close to it. Peyton Manning against the Browns D? Come on! Indy has been winning, but needs to find an offensive groove if they're going to go far in the playoffs. Yes, I said playoffs...look at their remaining schedule...less than 11-5 would be a huge disappointment.
See? They ARE Bad!
Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -4.5
O/U: 49
Linebuster!
My Pick: Falcons +4.5. Atlanta wins outright 27-23.
Result: Falcons 22-16
I knew Matt Ryan could lead his boys into San Diego and come out with a win. How about the Falcons' turnaround? I guess all they really needed was a solid QB, and everything else kind of fell into place! Also of note, Michael Turner, former LT backup, went into San Diego and outdueled his former superior...that must have felt awesome!
Now they'll win out...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -1
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers +1. Pittsburgh Wins 21-17.
Result: Steelers 33-10
I was correct that New England had to lose this game. Now that the Bills look awful, I doubt they'll beat the Pats, and New England should win the rest of its games. Pittsburgh can do a lot of damage, especially when the defense is playing well, but I don't see them getting any farther than the AFC title game, if they even make it that far.
Who Cares...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Raiders -3. Let's hope that guy that said that thing knows something we don't. Raiders win 27-24.
Result: Chiefs 20-13
I still don't know where I heard it, but whoever said the Raiders would win out is an idiot. Nuff Said.
Vikes give Bears Purple Nurples, Add Insult to Injury!
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Vikings -3.5. Minnesota Cruises 27-16.
Result: Vikings 34-14
They sure did cruise to that win! A 99-yard TD pass to Berrian and a long AP run were just two of the highlights for Minnesota, which could be a contender in the playoffs, especially if Jared Allen and the D-Line play that well every week. Chicago has work to do to make the playoffs. At 6-6, we've already written off the Bills, but Chicago is lucky enough to play in the NFC, where a lesser record may still have a shot at the wild card. They'll need to win out, though.
At Least Now We Know How Bad They Are...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Jags +3. Jacksonville wins 23-20.
Result: Texans 30-17
I can't remember a team underachieving in the NFL like the Jags have this year. People had them in the Super Bowl, and now they're 4-8. More embarrassingly, they're the only team to lose to the Bengals!
Linebusters: 5-0 (35-29-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 10-6 (117-71-1)
Not a terrible week. I wanted better, but I can appreciate being over .500.
Worst Ever Thanksgiving Day Defeat!
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
Line: Titans -11
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -11. Tennessee Rolls 31-13.
Result: Titans 47-10
You had to know that this was going to happen. The Lions are awful, and the Titans believe they're the best in the NFL.
Back?
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13
O/U: 47
My Pick: Cowboys -13. Dallas comes out firing 37-17.
Result: Cowboys 34-9
It may be Seattle, but Dallas played a very complete game on O & D. Don't rule them out as a contender just yet.
Of course they did...
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Cards +3. Arizona wins outright 31-19.
Result: Eagles 48-20
First off, I'm disgusted that I went against my "the Cards can't win in the East" philosophy. I'm also annoyed that I've been giving the Eagles credit for weeks, saying that it was time for them to break out of the slump and score a ton of points, and then they go and do it after I've lost faith in them. Jerks.
A New Strategy is Born!
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Broncos +7.5. The Broncos are never predictable, so I'll go against my gut. Jets 33-27.
Result: Broncos 34-17
For years, the Denver Broncos have been a thorn in my side, constantly doing the opposite of whatever I predicted. I finally decided to purposely go against my gut, and IT WORKED! Also, in case anyone was unsure as to why I have been down on the Jets, THIS IS WHY!!!
Game Over, Man. Game Over.
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Bills -6.5. Buffalo wins 33-23.
Result: 49ers 10-3
To aviod the use of profanity, all I will say is that the Bills will not make the playoffs, and will become the team that has been absent from the postseason the longest as soon as Arizona clinches. Bills fans haven't seen the postseason yet this century. Ouch. Also, 3 points? What the f#$% Buffalo?
Tampa in a Squeaker...Again!
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Saints +3.5. Tampa wins 23-21.
Result: Bucs 23-20
Doesn't get much closer than that. Go NFC South! I'd love to see 4 South teams and no East teams...(a.k.a. NO COWBOYS!). It won't happen, though...Dallas is back.
Stupid 4th and 1...
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 30-17.
Result: Panthers 35-31
You have to take the points late in the game on 4th and 1 at the goal line, but how terrible was the Packer D to just let Carolina march back down the field and score a touchdown? Yikes. The NFC North is basically Minny's division to lose now. Considering what everyone thought after week 3 or 4, that's quite a change.
The Best
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3.5
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -3.5. New York Skins 'em 31-16.
Result: Giants 23-7
Now that the Titans have lost, the Giants are absolutely the best team in the NFL. The question, though, will be whether or not they will let one slip away in the postseason due to the very likely absence of Plaxico. Goodell isn't going to let this go...Burress will likely be done for the year.
Never Bet on the Fins
Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Dolphins -7
O/U: n/a
My Pick: Dolphins -7. Miami wins 31-13.
Result: Fins 16-12
I should have known better. My unwritten rule was to never take the Fins as a heavy favorite. The Rams had to start playing better, and they did. Had I known at the time I picked the game that Steven Jackson would be back, I may have gone the other way, but that's no excuse. I should have never picked the Fins to cover 5+ points.
Whew!
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 23-10.
Result: Ravens 34-3
The whole time I was watching this game, I was convinced I had taken the Bengals to cover. Thankfully I was wrong. Baltimore has had the offense moving the last few games... with the Bills pretty much out of the race, they may be a playoff team!
No Offensive TDs. For Manning's Colts. Against the Browns. Really?
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 34-24.
Result: Colts 10-6
I would bet that no one called this. I'm sure people bet against the Colts and won, but I doubt anyone picked this final score, or anything close to it. Peyton Manning against the Browns D? Come on! Indy has been winning, but needs to find an offensive groove if they're going to go far in the playoffs. Yes, I said playoffs...look at their remaining schedule...less than 11-5 would be a huge disappointment.
See? They ARE Bad!
Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -4.5
O/U: 49
Linebuster!
My Pick: Falcons +4.5. Atlanta wins outright 27-23.
Result: Falcons 22-16
I knew Matt Ryan could lead his boys into San Diego and come out with a win. How about the Falcons' turnaround? I guess all they really needed was a solid QB, and everything else kind of fell into place! Also of note, Michael Turner, former LT backup, went into San Diego and outdueled his former superior...that must have felt awesome!
Now they'll win out...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -1
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers +1. Pittsburgh Wins 21-17.
Result: Steelers 33-10
I was correct that New England had to lose this game. Now that the Bills look awful, I doubt they'll beat the Pats, and New England should win the rest of its games. Pittsburgh can do a lot of damage, especially when the defense is playing well, but I don't see them getting any farther than the AFC title game, if they even make it that far.
Who Cares...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Raiders -3. Let's hope that guy that said that thing knows something we don't. Raiders win 27-24.
Result: Chiefs 20-13
I still don't know where I heard it, but whoever said the Raiders would win out is an idiot. Nuff Said.
Vikes give Bears Purple Nurples, Add Insult to Injury!
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Vikings -3.5. Minnesota Cruises 27-16.
Result: Vikings 34-14
They sure did cruise to that win! A 99-yard TD pass to Berrian and a long AP run were just two of the highlights for Minnesota, which could be a contender in the playoffs, especially if Jared Allen and the D-Line play that well every week. Chicago has work to do to make the playoffs. At 6-6, we've already written off the Bills, but Chicago is lucky enough to play in the NFC, where a lesser record may still have a shot at the wild card. They'll need to win out, though.
At Least Now We Know How Bad They Are...
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Jags +3. Jacksonville wins 23-20.
Result: Texans 30-17
I can't remember a team underachieving in the NFL like the Jags have this year. People had them in the Super Bowl, and now they're 4-8. More embarrassingly, they're the only team to lose to the Bengals!
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK THIRTEEN
THANKSGIVING GAMES
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
Line: Titans -11
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
I hate to give so many points to the Titans, especially in a Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit...but the Lions have no rushing defense, and the Titans have Chris Johnson. Plus Tennessee is coming off a loss, and wants to get "back on the horse".
Titans -11. Tennessee Rolls 31-13.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13
O/U: 47
Seattle is #31 in the league against the pass, and Romo and TO are starting to piece things back together. It stinks, but I think both of these will be turkey day blowouts.
Cowboys -13. Dallas comes out firing 37-17.
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 47
Arizona hasn't won on the East Coast...until now. The Eagles can't score, and Arizona can. Unless Warner gets a case of the fumblies, which he may, then the Cards should take this one.
Cards +3. Arizona wins outright 31-19.
Sunday
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7.5
O/U: 47.5
The Jets have trouble with the AFC West, but Denver is terrible, and Favre will tear them apart. The problem is that the Jets' Pass D is ranked even worse than Denver's, so Cutler may have a big game too. I think the Jets win, but not by that much.
Broncos +7.5. The Broncos are never predictable, so I'll go against my gut. Jets 33-27.
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6.5
O/U: 42.5
Buffalo needs the win, and should handle the 49ers, even though they are no pushover. It's another game where a loss would all but mean the end of Buffalo's season.
Bills -6.5. Buffalo wins 33-23.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
If the line were 3, I might take the Bucs, but there is a good chance they'll only win by a field goal - they rarely pull away. Plus with Reggie Bush back, the Saints may actually be able to sweep the season series.
Saints +3.5. Tampa wins 23-21.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43
The Frozen Tundra becomes a huge home-field advantage around this part of the season, especially against southern teams. Green Bay's pass D must be pissed after the Saints made them look like fools, so Delhomme will have a long game.
Packers -3. Green Bay wins 30-17.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3.5
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
Are you kidding me? The Giants are very good, and are built to win on the road, thanks to excellent play in the trenches. This one will be more dominant than the first meeting.
Giants -3.5. New York Skins 'em 31-16.
Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Dolphins -7
O/U: n/a
The Battle of the Longs! I hate to give Miami this many points, but the Rams have been very bad the last few weeks, and the Fins are due for a blowout.
Dolphins -7. Miami wins 31-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36.5
There is little offense in this game, and though the Ravens have a much better defense, it's usually more intelligent to go against a big spread in a low-scoring game. Then again, it's the Bengals.
Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 23-10.
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 45
While Derek Anderson is trying to figure out whether or not he's upset that he got back to the starting role by injury, and not because the team is confident in him, Peyton will be tearing the Browns up.
Colts -5. Indy wins 34-24.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -4.5
O/U: 49
Linebuster!
I get it. Give the Chargers points, because they're at home, and they absolutely must win. The only problem? Atlanta is in a division race, too, and the Falcons have actually looked good. Steadily good. Not to mention, they know they're the underdog, and will be out to prove that they are no fluke. The NFC South is a very good division. Believe it.
Falcons +4.5. Atlanta wins outright 27-23.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -1
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
Just to preface my pick, this is quite possibly the worst way I have ever picked a game. Here we go...The Pats should be no better than 10-6 this season without Brady. To fall that far, they'll need to lose 2 more. I doubt they'll lose the next two weeks, and even Arizona at home is winnable in week 16. So that means they'll need to lose to the Steelers and Bills! Of course, I could also back my pick up by noting that Pittsburgh's aggressive D will give Cassel nightmares, and that Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose and fall into a tie with the Ravens for first in the division.
Steelers +1. Pittsburgh Wins 21-17.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -3
O/U: 41.5
This game means nothing to me, so I am considering flipping a coin. I heard somebody recently say that they thought the Raiders could win out. I doubt that, but this game is certainly winnable. The problem is that it's KC's chance to get a second win, and nobody wants to end up 1-15.
Raiders -3. Let's hope that guy that said that thing knows something we don't. Raiders win 27-24.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 42
This is a huge divisional game, and it comes down to who can win when needed. The Vikings were built to be a contender, and when everything is on the line, I'd expect them to be the team that comes out on top. We've already seen them win a few desperation games. Time for one more.
Vikings -3.5. Minnesota Cruises 27-16.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48
Who booked this game for Monday Night? Awful. The fact that the Texans are favored tells you all you need to know. It's been a long year for the Jags. But these guys still have a great deal of pride, and there's no way they give up without a fight. They know they should be better than the Texans. After a good defensive game, the Texans are due to struggle a little.
Jags +3. Jacksonville wins 23-20.
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
Line: Titans -11
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
I hate to give so many points to the Titans, especially in a Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit...but the Lions have no rushing defense, and the Titans have Chris Johnson. Plus Tennessee is coming off a loss, and wants to get "back on the horse".
Titans -11. Tennessee Rolls 31-13.
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13
O/U: 47
Seattle is #31 in the league against the pass, and Romo and TO are starting to piece things back together. It stinks, but I think both of these will be turkey day blowouts.
Cowboys -13. Dallas comes out firing 37-17.
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 47
Arizona hasn't won on the East Coast...until now. The Eagles can't score, and Arizona can. Unless Warner gets a case of the fumblies, which he may, then the Cards should take this one.
Cards +3. Arizona wins outright 31-19.
Sunday
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7.5
O/U: 47.5
The Jets have trouble with the AFC West, but Denver is terrible, and Favre will tear them apart. The problem is that the Jets' Pass D is ranked even worse than Denver's, so Cutler may have a big game too. I think the Jets win, but not by that much.
Broncos +7.5. The Broncos are never predictable, so I'll go against my gut. Jets 33-27.
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6.5
O/U: 42.5
Buffalo needs the win, and should handle the 49ers, even though they are no pushover. It's another game where a loss would all but mean the end of Buffalo's season.
Bills -6.5. Buffalo wins 33-23.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Line: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
If the line were 3, I might take the Bucs, but there is a good chance they'll only win by a field goal - they rarely pull away. Plus with Reggie Bush back, the Saints may actually be able to sweep the season series.
Saints +3.5. Tampa wins 23-21.
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 43
The Frozen Tundra becomes a huge home-field advantage around this part of the season, especially against southern teams. Green Bay's pass D must be pissed after the Saints made them look like fools, so Delhomme will have a long game.
Packers -3. Green Bay wins 30-17.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3.5
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
Are you kidding me? The Giants are very good, and are built to win on the road, thanks to excellent play in the trenches. This one will be more dominant than the first meeting.
Giants -3.5. New York Skins 'em 31-16.
Miami Dolphins @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Dolphins -7
O/U: n/a
The Battle of the Longs! I hate to give Miami this many points, but the Rams have been very bad the last few weeks, and the Fins are due for a blowout.
Dolphins -7. Miami wins 31-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36.5
There is little offense in this game, and though the Ravens have a much better defense, it's usually more intelligent to go against a big spread in a low-scoring game. Then again, it's the Bengals.
Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 23-10.
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 45
While Derek Anderson is trying to figure out whether or not he's upset that he got back to the starting role by injury, and not because the team is confident in him, Peyton will be tearing the Browns up.
Colts -5. Indy wins 34-24.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -4.5
O/U: 49
Linebuster!
I get it. Give the Chargers points, because they're at home, and they absolutely must win. The only problem? Atlanta is in a division race, too, and the Falcons have actually looked good. Steadily good. Not to mention, they know they're the underdog, and will be out to prove that they are no fluke. The NFC South is a very good division. Believe it.
Falcons +4.5. Atlanta wins outright 27-23.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -1
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
Just to preface my pick, this is quite possibly the worst way I have ever picked a game. Here we go...The Pats should be no better than 10-6 this season without Brady. To fall that far, they'll need to lose 2 more. I doubt they'll lose the next two weeks, and even Arizona at home is winnable in week 16. So that means they'll need to lose to the Steelers and Bills! Of course, I could also back my pick up by noting that Pittsburgh's aggressive D will give Cassel nightmares, and that Pittsburgh doesn't want to lose and fall into a tie with the Ravens for first in the division.
Steelers +1. Pittsburgh Wins 21-17.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -3
O/U: 41.5
This game means nothing to me, so I am considering flipping a coin. I heard somebody recently say that they thought the Raiders could win out. I doubt that, but this game is certainly winnable. The problem is that it's KC's chance to get a second win, and nobody wants to end up 1-15.
Raiders -3. Let's hope that guy that said that thing knows something we don't. Raiders win 27-24.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 42
This is a huge divisional game, and it comes down to who can win when needed. The Vikings were built to be a contender, and when everything is on the line, I'd expect them to be the team that comes out on top. We've already seen them win a few desperation games. Time for one more.
Vikings -3.5. Minnesota Cruises 27-16.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48
Who booked this game for Monday Night? Awful. The fact that the Texans are favored tells you all you need to know. It's been a long year for the Jags. But these guys still have a great deal of pride, and there's no way they give up without a fight. They know they should be better than the Texans. After a good defensive game, the Texans are due to struggle a little.
Jags +3. Jacksonville wins 23-20.
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