NFL Week Three Recap

Overall SU: 32-16 (11-5 wk 3)
Week 3 ATS: 7-9
Overall ATS: 22-26
Week 3 Linebusters: 3-2 (6-9 overall)

So Much for Parity
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore Cruises to 3-0 with a 34-13 win.
Result: Ravens 34-3
I was close, but apparently Cleveland is even worse than I thought. Yikes.

Bucs Have Issues
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Giants -7. New York gets the road win 23-9.
Result: Giants 24-0
Again close, but the Bucs O is even worse than I thought. Again Yikes.

Kolb Coming Out Party?
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Chiefs +9.5. Philly still wins at home 20-17.
Result: Eagles 34-14
I thought the Eagles' O would suffer with Kolb at the helm. Guess not. The Chiefs are bad, but will beat the spread a few times this year. It's all about guessing when they do "the impossible". Didn't happen in week 3. Damn.

Really?
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Redskins -6.5. I hate to do this again...but it's the Lions. Washington 23-10.
Result: Lions 19-14
Haven't written the Lions in a results column since 2007! Honestly, I almost picked the Lions to win outright, but couldn't bring myself to do it. Had I looked at it as picking the Redskins to lose, however, I might have called this one. Stupid Redskins. What a waste of a decent defense. You'd think if the offense could get anything going it would be against Detroit. It's going to be a long year.

Inconsistency in Houston
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston wins at home 27-21.
Result: Jaguars 31-24
Really Houston? Come on. You just beat the Titans in a shootout, and now you can't get past the Jags at home? Maybe they just can't win at home! One thing this game tells me: Indy has as good a shot as anyone to pull off 16-0!

Brett is now a true Viking
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 40
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota wins at home 17-9.
Result: Vikings 27-24
Sometimes it is worth being wrong to see a play like the one Favre made with 2 seconds left. Nice catch, too, but to elude the pass rush and get that ball into the back of the endzone with perfect timing...truly a Favreian Feat. And how did the 49ers get 24 points without Gore? Singletary's team doesn't have an ounce of quit in them.

Damn Pats
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -4
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Falcons +4. I'm sick of the Pats disappointing me. I think they'll win 24-21.
Result: Pats 26-10
I am now 0-3 on games involving the Pats. They underperformed the first two weeks, and then somehow held the Falcons to 10 points. I'm sure I'll pick against them again next week...until they show me the "unstoppable" Pats of old, I can't trust them. Plus they blew it against the Jets' D, which is basically the Ravens D...and this week they get the Actual Ravens' D.

Titans/Oilers?
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Titans +3. Tennessee wins outright 13-6.
Result: Jets 24-17
So do I get credit for this one since the Titans technically did win? Had I known the New York Titans would be playing the Houston Oilers, I'm sure I would have chosen differently. Back to real life: The Titans are playing poorly right now, and are destined to have a very disappointing season. The loss to the Texans is the one that must really hurt, as Rex Ryan: Defensive Genius has his team playing spirited football. Based on the roster, I thought the Jets would be the worst team in the AFC East. Right now, they're the best. Sanchez played great on the first 2 series of the game, but will need to sustain that level of play if the Jets are going to win tough games later in the season. As he matures this team could get even better.

Pack still has question marks
Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Packers -6.5. The Packers don't blow it. They win 27-13.
Result: Packers 36-17
The Packers had it all-but-wrapped-up, but then allowed St. Louis to get back into the game. Thankfully they were able to pull away again, but the Packers will struggle if they can't even sustain a solid effort against a team as bad as the Rams.

Winning with a Letdown
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 53
Linebuster!
My Pick: Saints -5.5. New Orleans 41-31.
Result: Saints 27-7
Nice to see that the Saints could win and cover despite an offensive letdown. We'll see what happens next week against the Jets...it could be very interesting!

Way too Close
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Bears -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bears -2. Chicago wins 20-13.
Result: Bears 25-19
The Bears were losing late in the game and needed to put together a scoring drive to get back ahead. Against Seneca Wallace? Come on Chicago. Urlacher's injury is bound to hurt, but the rest of the defense needs to hold down the fort. Especially when they're playing a Seahawks team led by Seneca Wallace.

INTs Killed me this week...
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Fins +6. Miami wins outright 20-17.
Result: Chargers 23-13
The late interception thrown by Henne (returned for a TD) shafted me on this spread, but it was really the loss of Pennington that caused this game to end up the way it did. Miami will struggle without him.

Woohoo! I got a Broncos Game RIGHT!
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Oakland -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Broncos +1. Denver wins 17-13.
Result: Broncos 23-3
So the Broncos are 3-0 and have beaten the spread all 3 times. What is the NFL coming to? Now their schedule gets tougher, but early season confidence may propel them to actually surprising a decent team or two down the road.

What the F$%&?
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -4
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers -4. Pittsburgh in a landslide 28-13.
Result: Bengals 23-20
If you predicted this, you're lying. Polamalu's loss hurts, but the offense just didn't score enough points. Ben has to pull it together and get a few extra points on the board to help that defense. I incorrectly downgraded the Bengals after their week one home loss to Denver; they're playing solid football. Now the problem becomes overestimating their abilities.

The Peyton Show
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts +2.5. Indy wins a shootout 34-31.
Result: Colts 31-10
So it turned out a little more one-sided than I thought. At least Peyton has the Colts playing well. When his offense gets some time with the football, the defense can stay rested and perform at a very high level, even without the influential Bob Sanders. Arizona is having issues at home this year, which is the opposite of what happened last year, making them far more difficult to predict.

Go (Home) DelHomme
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9
O/U: 46
Panthers +9. Cowboys still win it 31-23.
Result: Cowboys 21-7
Freaking Panthers. They were ahead at the half, close all game, and then Delhomme tried to force one to Steve Smith and it was picked off and taken to the house. No way the Cowboys should have beaten that spread. It is very hard to predict a team (CAR...) that turns the ball over so much, because you never know how bad it will get in a given game.

NFL Week Three Preview

Sunday, September 27:

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 38.5
The major trends on this game suggest that it will be played Over (Over last 5 meetings & 7 of last 9 in Bal). Baltimore is obviously the better team, and is 8-1 ATS their last 9 times as a favorite and was 5-1 ATS against their division last year (including 2-0 vs. Cle), prior to becoming a viable offensive football team. Cleveland was 2-4 ATS in the division last season, is 0-2 ATS so far this year, and has shown no signs of life. The only issue is whether or not 13 points is too many for a game between teams that have a legitimate reason to hate each other. I say no.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore Cruises to 3-0 with a 34-13 win.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 44
The Under is 10-0-1 the last eleven times these teams have met, but all of those were when the Bucs had a dominant defense (which is no longer the case...) so be careful. New York is a solid team overall and was solid against the spread last year, including 9-3 as a favorite. Tampa covered only one game in which it was an underdog last season, and was not very good ATS overall. Expect the Giants D-line to stop the run just like the Bills did, and keep in mind that New York will likely fare better at getting pressure on Leftwich when he throws. So it could be a long day for the Bucs offense.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York gets the road win 23-9.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9.5
O/U: 42
I don't care if Vick is back...they're still starting Kolb. The Chiefs may not fare well against the Eagles' defense, but I'm not sure what to expect from the offense, making it very difficult to predict a blowout. The Chiefs kept some games close last year that they probably shouldn't have, and could easily do it again. Philly is also 2-7 ATS their last 9 games before a bye, which probably doesn't mean much, but is enough to push me in favor of the Chiefs.
My Pick: Chiefs +9.5. Philly still wins at home 20-17.

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 38.5
Washington's trends pretty much all suggest Under, no matter who they play. In this case, the Under hasn't lost in 7 straight meetings between the two (5-0-2). Both teams were 6-9-1 ATS last season, but Detroit was only 1-7 ATS at home. Washington was 2-5 ATS as a favorite, and just lost ATS this past week as a large fave. So if I could pick against both teams, I would. The question is whether or not the Lions can score much on the Skins. The Skins will be working out the offensive kinks in practice, and may try to open it up a bit against a terrible Lions D. I say it works.
My Pick: Redskins -6.5. I hate to do this again...but it's the Lions. Washington 23-10.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 46.5
Everything points to Houston in this one. The Texans are 5-1 ATS and SU their past 6 at home against the Jags, and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 overall against Jacksonville. They're also coming off a big win, while the Jags continue to struggle. Jags games tend to end up Under when the Jags are the underdog, though after last week I'm not sure Jacksonville will slow down the Houston O.
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston wins at home 27-21.

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 40
The only trends to look at here are that the 49ers are 0-7 ATS their last 7 trips to Minnesota and that the Under is 5-1 the last 6 meetings. The level of play on the field suggests that the 49ers might have a shot. The Vikings had some early offensive trouble against the Lions, and when San Fran watches that tape, they may figure out how to contain Minnesota. The 49ers offense won't be able to do anything against a tough Minnesota D, though, so I am thinking it will be a tough defensive battle. The question is how tough.
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota wins at home 17-9.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -4
O/U: 44.5
Peria Jerry is out for the Falcons, but that should affect the run defense more than the pass D, and the Pats seem determined not to run the football. Atlanta is 2-0 ATS thus far, New England is 0-2 ATS...but both teams have yet to be an underdog. Atlanta is playing well right now, but New England is (or better be...) in crisis mode, as they have not played anywhere near expectations. They know Peria Jerry is out, and should make a concerted effort to run the ball. I'm not sure if the D will hold up, but I think the Pats should win. But will it be by 4?
My Pick: Falcons +4. I'm sick of the Pats disappointing me. I think they'll win 24-21.

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 37
New York has been stellar under Rex Ryan:Defensive Genius. Tennessee has struggled, but would love to return the favor from last year and ruin the Jets' 2-0 record. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 September road games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games overall, but the Jets are solid and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the Titans. It seems ridiculous for me to underestimate the Jets again, but I think the Titans are bound to start playing better, and the Jets still have a rookie QB. The Titans will pound the ball on the ground and tire out the Jets' D. Sanchez will struggle against a hungry Titans' D.
My Pick: Titans +3. Tennessee wins outright 13-6.

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 41
After last week's debacle, nothing is a sure thing. The Packers are 2-7 SU in their last 9 trips to St. Louis, but after being embarassed last week at home, I think they will be out to prove something. And St. Louis is far worse than Cincy. My biggest concern is that Green Bay lost 7 ATS last year in streaks of 3 and 4, which suggests that Green Bay is a team that doesn't rebound well from a sub-par performance.
My Pick: Packers -6.5. The Packers don't blow it. They win 27-13.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 53
Linebuster!
The Bills have been playing well, but can't score anywhere near 40 points. The Saints likely will. Since 1980, the road team in this series has won 5 of 7 meetings. The Bills were also zero for their last four SU and ATS against NFC South opponents before last week's win over the Bucs. Honestly, though, the reason it's a linebuster is because I don't see the Bills' secondary being the first ones to chain down Brees and the high-flying Saints. Unless Edwards is stellar and the Bills score 40 also, this should be an easy cover for the favored Saints.
My Pick: Saints -5.5. New Orleans 41-31.

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Bears -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
If I hadn't remembered that Hasslebeck was out, I would have gone with the Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace ain't beatin' the Bears. Hasslebeck's absence isn't yet definite, but he has a broken rib. If McNabb is missing starts for the same injury, Hasslebeck will be too. The Bears are 0-4 SU @ Seattle since 1980 and the Seahawks are 10-2-1 ATS in their past 13 September home games, but I'm guessing most of those weren't with Seneca Wallace at QB. And in most of those games, the Seahawks were favored; Seattle is just 3-15 SU in their last 18 games as an underdog.
My Pick: Bears -2. Chicago wins 20-13.

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
Miami is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their past 7 against the Bolts, which supports my gut feeling that the Fins were a solid choice in this game. The last 8 meetings between the two teams were played Under, and I think that is a safe bet again. The Chargers are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, including 0-2 ATS this season. Despite being at home, this feels like a trap game.
My Pick: Fins +6. Miami wins outright 20-17.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Oakland -1
O/U: 36.5
The trends conflict, as Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Oakland despite Oakland having won only 3 of their last 11 home meetings with Denver. Also, Denver is 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 division games, though Oakland has lost 10 straight ATS as a favorite. So I'll have to figure this one out based on the two teams. Denver has played well, but I would expect them to lose. Oakland is a tough team, and should be able to grind it out at home. My gut says to take Oakland. So I'll take Denver. (Picking against my gut seems to be the only way to get a Broncos game right!)
My Pick: Broncos +1. Denver wins 17-13.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -4
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
Come on, now. One week against the Packers doesn't mean the Bengals are good. It means the Packers didn't play defense. Even without Polamalu, the Steelers secondary won't get embarassed, and coming off of a loss, Big Ben will have the offense clicking. The Bengals are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 at home against Pitt, and just 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. The Steelers are 11-1 SU the last 12 times they were favored against an AFC North opponent, and Cincy went 1-5 ATS in the division last season including 2 ATS losses to Pitt. This one seems pretty clear to me...
My Pick: Steelers -4. Pittsburgh in a landslide 28-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Arizona -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
The Cards seemed to be back last week, winning on the east coast and clicking offensively. Put that offense back in the desert and things could get very interesting. Peyton and the Colts may have something to say about it, however. The Colts are 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS the last 4 times these two have met. And inexplicably the under has come to pass in all of those meetings. I wouldn't expect that to happen again; this Cards team is a bit different than the Cards of old. The Cards are 9-3 ATS the last 12 times they were a favorite (0-1 in '09), but the Colts are 14-2 SU in their past 16 September road games. I am tempted to pick Arizona, chiefly due to my concern that the Colts never seem to hit their full stride until week 7 or 8, but that SU number for Indy is pretty remarkable. 14-2 on the road early in the year? Wow.
My Pick: Colts +2.5. Indy wins a shootout 34-31.

Monday, September 28th:

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9
O/U: 46
Ok, yes, the Panthers have been having a tough year. But 9 points to the Cowboys? The Panthers are 1-7 SU in their last 8 against Dallas and have not been a stellar road team in the past. But 9 points? Romo will be looking to atone for last week, but the Panthers are trying to make up for an 0-2 start. The numbers say to pick Dallas, but my gut says that giving 9 points to a less-than-consistent Cowboys team is a bad idea. Do I go numbers or gut? I have a better idea. Go Intangibles! Indy had trouble adjusting to Lucas Oil Field last year; The Cowboys may need an adjustment period at Cowboys Stadium. 4 of the past 5 meetings between these teams were played Over, so I'm going high on points.
Panthers +9. Cowboys still win it 31-23.

NFL Week Two Recap

Week 2: 5-11
Overall: 15-17
Overall SU: 21-11 (7-9 wk 2)
Linebusters: 1-4 (3-7)

Just an atrocious week for me. No excuses. The 49ers are for real, the Packers disappeared again, and I chose the wrong way on all of my toss-ups. It happens, but hopefully this will be my worst week of the season. Two Perfect picks (exact score), and I still stunk it up. Geez.

How far will they go?
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Panthers +6. Atlanta still wins 20-16.
Result: Falcons 28-20
I was close, but obviously these games are the hardest to pick. I thought Carolina would step it up, hold onto the ball, and keep it close. They almost did, but fell a few points short of the spread. Atlanta is good, but the injury to DT Peria Jerry could hurt.

Why do I do this to Myself?
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -9.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Skins -9.5. Washington wins 17-6.
Result: Skins 9-7
I distinctly remember doing the logical thing (taking the points when Washington was favored big...), and it bit me in the butt. So I thought I'd go with them this time. And it bit me in the butt agian. What can you do? 9 points against the Rams is ridiculous at home, so honestly it's the Skins who should be ashamed of themselves.

Not Dead Yet
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Seems like a lot to cover, but I'm going Titans 27-17.
Result: Texans 34-31
I was sure that the Jets victory over the Texans meant that they were overrated, but apparently they can play great when they want to. I also think the Jets are WAY better than anticipated, which kind of threw a bunch of stuff off for me this week. Tennessee will get on track, but it may be too little too late.

Are they done scoring yet?
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 46
My Pick: Eagles +1. They are playing at home. Their defense is good. Philly 24-23.
Result: Saints 48-22
If the Saints keep this up they won't lose! Who can keep up with 45+ PPG? Philly's D didn't perform the way I expected them to, and Kolb wasn't helping by dishing out INTs left and right. They'll be better when McNabb gets back.

Son of a...
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
My Pick: Pats -3.5. New England Rolls 27-10.
Result: Jets 16-9
As I told a friend, this was my one lock for the week. I had no idea that Rex Ryan:Defensive Genius could hold Brady and the Pats to NO TDs. From now on I am picking the Jets as though they were the Ravens of old (before they had Flacco and an offense...). Not a Super Bowl team, but far better than the 6-10 team I thought they'd be.

Spot On
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -3
O/U: 38.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Raiders +3. Oakland wins 13-10.
Result: Raiders 13-10
I was right. What more can be said?

What is going on?
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -3
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jags -3. Jacksonville dominates at home 23-10.
Result: Cards 31-17
Last year the Cards couldn't do anything on the East Coast. They wouldn't have beaten St. Mary's school for the blind, let alone an NFL team. But apparently the Jags are terrible again and have chosen to suffer through 5-11 all over again. Goodbye Jack Del Rio. Doubt he'll make it past week 8 if they keep stinkin it up. Also of note, the 49ers, like the Jets, seem to be very much "for real", and have messed up a few picks this week.

So much for the dominant Packers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -9
O/U: 42
My Pick: Packers -9. Green Bay wins at home 27-13.
Result: Bengals 31-24
The NFL becomes confusing when the Packers beat the Chicago Bears in week 1, and while the Bears are off beating the defending Super Bowl Champs that same Packers team is beaten by the lowly Bengals. What is going on? I have no idea. The Broncos aren't good, so it can't be that the Bengals are better than I thought. The Bears played well without Urlacher, so it can't be that they suck. The only answer is that, once again, the Packers are incredibly inconsistent. You'd think that secondary would be stellar. It wasn't. Boo Green Bay. Boo.

Still too close...
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 45
My Pick: Vikings -10.
Vikings leave Ford Field with a 31-13 win.
Result: Vikings 27-13
I love when I can be correct yet still learn a ton about a team. The Vikings came on later in the game, but early on were not playing well. If other teams can figure out what the Lions did early on and sustain it, the Vikes could be held in check.

Go Bills!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -4.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Bills -4.5. I have to go with my Bills 23-17.
Result: Bills 33-20
Buffalo had it working early, got out to a 17-0 lead, and then cooled off a bit. Despite playing well defensively, they did drop a few sure-thing interceptions, so things could have gone even better. The Bucs showed that they can throw when the run is taken out, but still don't have much on the defensive side of the ball to stop other teams.

Where did this come from?
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Seahawks +1. Can't believe I get the Seahawks with Points! 24-21 Seattle.
Result: 49ers 23-10
I know Hasslebeck was hurt, but you'd think the defense that held Bulger's Rams to 0 points in week one could do better against Shaun "who?" Hill and the 49ers O. Like I said after week 1, San Fran tries to make each game a fight, and they are awfully tough. Name 2 players on the 49er D other than Patrick Willis. You can't, unless you're a 49ers fan. Yet they are mean, tough, and consistent. A truly cohesive unit, all on the same page every play. This is the epitomy of a well-coached team performing above expectations, and if they keep it up, they may win the West. Heck, they've already beaten the other 2 contenders!

Jeff Reed just made my list of things to do today...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh has too much for Chicago 20-10.
Result: Bears 17-14
I would have been fine had Jeff Reed not sucked. Again. Why can't he kick in wind? Everybody else can... The Bears played a solid ball-possession-type game, like they always have, but I still thought the Steelers had more than enough chances to beat them.

What are you doing in Late January?
Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 40
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-14.
Result: Ravens 31-26
Analysts are saying that this could have been an early look at the AFC championship game. The Ravens look very good. San Diego played well without LT, but needs to up their level of play if they're going to beat the league's elite teams.

Where did this come from?
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Line: Denver -3
O/U: 39
My Pick: Browns +3. Cleveland wins outright 17-13.
Result: Broncos 27-6
I went back and forth on this one a bunch of times. I knew I should have gone against my gut. Whenever the Broncos are involved, you have to go against your gut. For some reason they are just an impossible team to pick. I still don't think they're any good, but their 2-0 record makes me wonder. The Browns aren't as bad as they looked, and will surprise someone at some point this season. I just hope it's not me!

Again, I knew better.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Cowboys -2.5. I hate to pick the Cowboys, but I will. Dallas 20-13.
Result: G-Men 33-31
Why would I pick the Cowboys? The Colts struggled in their new stadium last season, why didn't I consider that the Cowboys would, too? Guess I got too bogged down by the trends. The Giants played well, and Manningham emerged as a possible go-to guy, maybe even a #1 receiver, for Manning. If the young receivers keep playing well, the G-men will go far. The defense hasn't even hit its stride yet and the Giants are 2-0!

Whew!
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 42
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-23.
Result: Colts 27-23
Can't say I wasn't a bit worried, but the Colts pulled it out and made me look good with another exact pick. In case you were curious, that was as good as Miami can play, which will help in determining what they can do against other teams in the future. Indy needs Bob Sanders back to be an elite team. And Anthony Gonzolez wouldn't hurt, either.

NFL Week Two Preview

Sunday, September 20th:

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 42.5
This is a tough game to call. The Panthers were awful in week one and are likely to bounce back. The Falcons played well in week one at home, and showed that their defense can really shut teams down. Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS in their past four against the Falcons, who are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 division games. The key to this game is that I think the oddsmakers are overestimating the Falcons and underestimating the Panthers based on week one performances.
My Pick: Panthers +6. Atlanta still wins 20-16.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -9.5
O/U: 37
The Rams got shutout by a mediocre defense in week one, and the Skins are one of the better defenses in the NFL. It won't be pretty. This game boils down to whether or not the Skins can score enough points to cover. Washington failed to cover as a home favorite against the Rams last season, but I don't think that will happen again. As for points, every trend suggests the under.
My Pick: Skins -9.5. Washington wins 17-6.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
Both teams have been great against the spread within the division lately. Tennessee has a longer run (12-3 ATS last 15 vs. AFC South), though the Texans 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 division games is pretty good too. Head to Head, the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Texans, and the Over has come up 7 of the past 9 times these teams have met. This time around the Texans have a lot to prove coming off of a disappointing loss to the Jets, and the Titans played well against the Steelers and seem to be on track for another solid season. The key to this one is the Texans running game. Steve Slaton must be a large part of the offense for the Texans to stay with the Titans. Tennessee has a great run defense, and if the Jets can hold him down, so can the Titans.
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Seems like a lot to cover, but I'm going Titans 27-17.

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 46
This is another tough game to call, despite what many of you may be thinking. No Donovan doesn't mean no chance for the Eagles. Their secondary intercepted 5 passes last week, which may mean that they are a decent match for New Orleans' very strong pass game. Though these teams have played their last 4 games over the spread, I wonder if that will be the case this time around. With Donovan likley out, the defense knows it must step up and be very good. Kolb is fighting to keep his spot as #2 QB when Vick gets inserted into the lineup next week, and with a little bit of experience relieving McNabb in the past, he may be sufficient to get the job done. The Eagles are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and went 6-2 ATS at home last year. Even though New Orleans was good against the spread last season, they weren't quite as good on the road.
My Pick: Eagles +1. They are playing at home. Their defense is good. Philly 24-23.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
This one should be an easy call. The Pats are much better than they looked last week and Sanchez will have to deal with New York media and fan pressure. The Jets haven't beaten the spread in their last 10 home games against New England and haven't beaten the spread in an AFC East game at home in their last 7 tries.
My Pick: Pats -3.5. New England Rolls 27-10.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -3
O/U: 38.5
Linebuster!
Believe it or not, the Chiefs were worse ATS at home last year than they were on the road. Despite having won 8 of their past 10 against the Raiders, they are not a very good football team right now, and I'm not sure what type of mindset they are in. Oakland is coming off a tough late loss to the Chargers on Monday Night, and despite the short week I'd expect them to have a newfound confidence after playing well against a team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. If you prefer the O/U, the Under is 7-1 in the last 8 games between these teams.
My Pick: Raiders +3. Oakland wins 13-10.

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -3
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
The Cards cannot play on the East Coast. They got crushed every time they came east last season, are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 September road games, and after losing at home to the 49ers they're in no condition to win on the road. The Jags are 2-0 ATS against the Cardinals in their only two meetings, and just finsished doing a good job defensively against a very good passing attack in Indianapolis. So you have to figure they can handle the Cards' offense. Despite the Jags being 1-7 ATS as a favorite and 1-7 ATS at home last season, I'd be very surprised if this game doesn't go as planned.
My Pick: Jags -3. Jacksonville dominates at home 23-10.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -9
O/U: 42
The Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the Packers, but are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against the NFC North and went 4-0 ATS against the tough NFC East last season. The spread seems to be a bit large, but Green Bay's secondary is excellent, and that new 3-4 defense worked out pretty well against the Bears. The Packers also have enough talent offensively to put up big numbers against the Bengals D. A tough pick, but I don't think Chad Ochocinco can rally the troops enough to cover. If you want to go under, it has come up in each of the last 3 games between these two teams, though I think there will be a bit more offense in this one.
My Pick: Packers -9. Green Bay wins at home 27-13.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 45
Every trend is telling me to take the Lions, and I think I'm going to go against them all. Detroit is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 8 or more, and after losing ATS last week the odds say they should beat the spread this time around. The Lions are 4-0 ATS yet 0-4 SU in their last 4 division games. Minnesota was 1-5 ATS within the division last year. The key to this one is that the Lions can't stop AP and Brett Favre, and if they pick one poison, the other will kill them. The Vikes may have been bad ATS last year, but not with Brett at the helm. I know I am going over the top on the "Vikings are Gods" thing this year, and I know I'll get bitten by them at some point, but this game looks pretty cut and dry.
My Pick: Vikings -10. Vikings leave Ford Field with a 31-13 win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -4.5
O/U: 42
Buffalo looked solid, but will there be a hangover after a devastating loss like that? Tampa Bay is a running team, and Buffalo's D should be able to hold them down. The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the Bucs and are 0-4 in their last 4 against the NFC South, but those games against the Bucs were against a very good defense that is no longer in place.
My Pick: Bills -4.5. I have to go with my Bills 23-17.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -1
O/U: 39.5
Linebuster!
A 1-point spread is basically a pick-em, and common sense suggests that the Seahawks will win. They are a much better team, just shut out the Rams, and should be able to play well on the road. They're also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the 49ers. The under is 5-1 in San Fran's last 6 September home games, though the Over is 7-2 the past 9 times the 49ers have been a 4-point favorite or less, so I have to lean in that direction.
My Pick: Seahawks +1. Can't believe I get the Seahawks with Points! 24-21 Seattle.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 37.5
Linebuster!
This will be a great game. Chicago has lost its last 3 meetings with the Steelers, though there aren't many other trends to look at between the two. The only other is that although Pittsburgh was 5-3 ATS on the road last year, they were 1-2 as a road favorite. So I'll have to take this game at face value. Both have great defenses, but which would I trust more? A Polamalu-less Steeler D or an Urlacher-less Bears D?
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh has too much for Chicago 20-10.

Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 40
Baltimore is good as an underdog (8-4 ATS last 12) and San Diego is bad as a favorite (2-6 ATS last 8), but the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to San Diego. Without LT, however, can the Chargers do anything offensively? Baltimore's D was great their first time out. If you prefer to pick the O/U, 5 of the last 6 games between these two have been played under.
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-14.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Line: Denver -3
O/U: 39
The Browns have never beaten the Broncos (0-4), and Denver is 12-1 in their last 13 September home games. I very badly want to pick the Browns, but I'm not sure what to expect. Quinn won't go nuts on a solid Denver secondary, but can aging Jamal Lewis do some damage? And will Cleveland's defense hold the Broncos O? Denver is 3-12-1 ATS the last 16 times they've been a favorite of 4 or less, was 1-6-1 ATS at home last season, and didn't cover a single time that they were a home favorite last season.
My Pick: Browns +3. Cleveland wins outright 17-13.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -2.5
O/U: 45
The Giants were 3-1 ATS as an underdog last season, and were one of the league's best teams against the spread overall (12-4). Dallas was only 4-4 ATS as a home favorite and was 2-4 ATS within the division, but one of their 2 division ATS wins was at home against the Giants. The only solid trend suggests the Under, which is 8-2 the last 10 Giants games vs. the NFC East and is 11-4 the last 15 times the Giants have traveled to Dallas. New York has enough D to get it done, but do they have enough offense, espcially down one wide receiver with Hakeem Nicks out 2-3 weeks with a foot injury?
My Pick: Cowboys -2.5. I hate to pick the Cowboys, but I will. Dallas 20-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 42
The Colts are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against Miami and will be without Bob Sanders again this week. Miami was 2-6 ATS at home last year, but their only 2 ATS home wins were as an underdog. The over is 9-3 the last twelve times these former AFC East rivals have played in Miami, and it should be a safe bet again. This is a tough pick, especially with Miami coming off a loss, but I cannot, in good conscience, pick Miami to beat the Colts anywhere on planet earth.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-23.

NFL Week One Recap

Week 1: 10-6

Overall: 10-6

Overall SU: 14-2

Linebusters: 2-3

A very successful opening week for me, although I will obviously need to re-examine the way I choose linebuster games. Stupid Bills. If they were going to spoil the spread for me, you'd think they could have at least won!

Champs are Back!

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers -6

O/U: 34.5

My Pick: Titans +6. Tennessee will cover, but they'll still lose 24-20.

Result: Steelers 13-10

In retrospect, I have no idea why I would suggest the over in a game between two defensive, run-minded teams, but the pick itself was pretty clear. Everyone who says the Titans aren't "for real" this year needs to keep in mind that the Titans feed off of that negative energy and play as hard as any team in the NFL because the players always feel they need to work twice as hard to earn the respect of the media and fans. Don't underestimate Tennessee. At least not until the postseason...

Falcons Show Their Talons

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons

Line: Falcons -4

O/U: 43

My Pick: Falcons -4. Atlanta wins big at home 31-21.

Result: Falcons 19-7

The big surprise in this one was the Falcons' defensive effort. If they play well, the Falcons could win that division.

The Ravens Have an Offense?

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

Line: Ravens -13

O/U: 36

My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore rolls 31-10.

Result: Ravens 38-24

Next time it won't be the Chiefs playing defense, so we'll see if Baltimore really has 38 points per game worth of offense, but their defense was quite good. How so you ask? KC's first 7 points were scored on a blocked punt recovery in the end zone. The next 7 were due to a 70-yard interception return that gave KC the ball on the 6 yard line. The next 3 were from a 50+ yard field goal. Their final 7 were scored late in the game when Baltimore already had things wrapped up. They allowed 29 total rush yards and under 200 pass yards. So don't look at the score and say Baltimore was shaky on D against KC. If they can put up a ton of points with any frequency, they'll be a true contender in the AFC.

Hanging Chad

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Bengals -4

O/U: 43

Bengals -4. Cincinnati starts things off right, 26-19.

Result: Broncos 12-7

Chad Ochocinco's prediction of a 12-win season for the Bengals isn't looking good. Maybe he thought the question was "how many losses will the Bengals have in '09?" Cincy really did get screwed in this one, however. Down 6-0 late in the game, Palmer mounted a nice long drive puctuated by a Benson touchdown run with under 1 minute left. Then Cincy got burned by an 81-yard touchdown pass. I guess Orton can throw downfield! This turn of events means nothing to me, though, as I wouldn't have been correct on the spread anyway.

AP Reports that AP is Good

Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns

Line: Vikings -4

O/U: 40

Linebuster!

My Pick: Vikings -4. Vikings roll 27-12.

Result: Vikings 34-20

Brett Favre wasn't spectacular, but completing 66% of his passes when Adrian Peterson is unstoppable will certainly win football games for the Vikings. And that is all Minnesota needs; a serviceable QB to run the game and provide a legitimate pass option so that defenses can't just stack up the box to shut down AP. Favre is that and more. Which is why I think the Vikes are legit this year. Cleveland has the personnel to be much better than they were against the run, and they'll need to be if they're going to be any good. Solid offensive effort, though, against a tough Minny D.

Colts in a Squeaker

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 44

My Pick: Jaguars +7. Too many points. Colts win 27-22.

Result: Colts 14-12

I'm surprised at Indy's second consecutive offensive slow start, which last year was blamed on Peyton's absence during the preseason. Jacksonville will be better this year, especially with a healthy defense, but Indy should have put up more points. If you're wondering why this game was close, look no further than the turnover battle. Jacksonville held onto the football; Indy turned it over twice. Those turnovers took away at least 10 points from the Colts, as both occurred deep in Jacksonville territory.

Got Defense?

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Line: Saints -13

O/U: 49

My Pick: Lions +13. New Orleans squeaks by 31-29.

Result: Saints 45-27

I gave Detroit's linebacker corps too much credit, and forgot that Drew Brees likes to pile on points at home. At least the over was an easy call.

No TO Needed

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 39

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins big 30-6.

Result: Cowboys 34-21

So is Cadillac Williams going to be as good as I always thought he would be, or is the Dallas defense susceptible to the run? If it is the former, the Bucs could be decent this season, especially if Leftwich proves to be a solid passer. Too bad the defense isn't what it used to be.

Cinderella Loses Slippers, Pants, Shirt, and Title

New York Jets @ Houston Texans

Line: Texans -4.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Jets +4.5. Jets win outright 20-17.

Result: Jets 24-7

The team everyone thinks will be Cincerella never is. It's that simple. The real story here is Rex Ryan:Defensive Genius. He moves over from Baltimore, his first shot at head coaching, and immediately shows off a VERY good defense. The Jets weren't terrible stoppers last year, but to hold Steve Slaton to 17 yards rushing and to shut out the Texans completely...in THEIR BUILDING? Nice job Rex Ryan:Defensive Genius. You've earned yourself a nickname.

So Much for Domination at Home

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

Line: Eagles -1

O/U: 43.5

Linebuster!

My Pick: Eagles -1. Philly is too good, and gets things started properly, 30-17.

Result: Eagles 38-10

A big win, but at what cost? McNabb will be a game-time decision this week, and I'd be willing to bet that he'll at least be sore for a long time. Then again, McNabb has played with pain nearly his entire career, so he's used to it, and ultimately I don't think it will affect the team. (Unless they lose this week with Kolb in at QB...) Also of note, the Eagles don't seem to miss Brian Dawkins. 5 INTs without him pretty much shows that. On the other side, Carolina's 7 turnovers disgusts me, and makes me think I could be right on the nose in saying that I doubt DelHomme's ability to put together another superb season. We'll see, but the Falcons and Saints looked good, and the Bucs looked decent, so if Carolina is reeling, it will be a tough year.

Clipped Wings

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Line: Cardinals -6.5

O/U: 46

Linebuster!

My Pick: Cards -6.5. Arizona rolls 34-10.

Result: 49ers 20-16

Damn. I was looking forward to the Cards being good again (and making picks in the NFC West easy...), but I guess they're not quite back to super bowl form. Warner hasn't been particularly consistent through his career, so a down season is not only possible, but likely. He threw for decent yardage Sunday, but also tossed 2 picks. At least Leinart was able to learn from a veteran prior to being thrust into the starting role, which could happen sooner rather than later if the Cards struggle. San Francisco played well, and the 49ers are not a team to overlook; Singletary has them playing very hard and with a great deal of pride. Assuming Frank Gore rushes for more than 30 yards per game the rest of the year (though he did have 2 TDs...), the 49ers could keep surprising people.

Seahawk D Pitches Shutout (against the Rams, though, so it doesn't count...)

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -8.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Seahawks -8.5. Seattle gets started right with a 27-10 victory.

Result: Seahawks 28-0

So the Seahawks ARE for real. I wasn't sure about the defense, but I guess I am now. And if you weren't sure about St. Louis being worse than last year, you should be by now.

Giants win D vs. D. Can they handle a shootout?

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

Line: Giants -6.5

O/U: 37

My Pick: Giants -6.5. Giants win 17-6.

Result: Giants 23-17

I waffled on this pick 5 times, eventually settling the wrong way because I thought the Giants D would crush the Skins O. They didn't. In fact, yardage numbers from both teams were very similar, making one wonder if the Giants O is much better than the Skins O. Both teams have great defenses, but can they put up enough points?

NFC North Pecking Order Established

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Line: Packers -3.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Packers -3.5. Green Bay wins 24-20.

Result: Packers 21-15

A great game between two solid teams. Both will be good, both will challenge for the division. What happens when these teams play Minnesota will tell the tale of how things ultimately shape up in the NFC North.

This Must Be What Cubs Fans Feel Like

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Line: Patriots -10.5

O/U: 47.5

Linebuster!

My Pick: Pats -10.5. Gotta go against my team. NE is too strong for Buffalo. 31-17.

Result: Pats 25-24

Frickin Leodis McKelvin. In case you haven't heard, his house in Hamburg, NY (outside of Buffalo) was vandalized. They spray painted the final score on his lawn. I find this hilarious. Why wouldn't you just go down? You're wrapped up, ahead, trying to get the offense on the field to kill clock, and you're fighting for half a yard? FALL ON THE DAMN GROUND. Idiot. We did learn some things from this game, however. The Bills could be better than expected, unless this loss hangs over their heads the rest of the year. The Pats may not be a Super Bowl lock, as their defense wasn't stellar and their offense didn't figure things out until the 4th quarter. In any case, as a Bills fan, I'm used to them screwing me on the spread and still losing the game. It's their own cute little way of saying "F-you".

Still Underwhelming

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Line: Chargers -9

O/U: 43

Linebuster!

My Pick: Chargers -9. San Diego gets off to a fast start, 23-13.

Result: Chargers 24-20

Oakland surprised me. I didn't expect their rushing duo of McFadden and Bush to be quite so good, but they looked solid. As for San Diego? The usual. Everyone expects them to be great, they struggle against a questionable opponent in week one, suffer a major loss due to injury, and end up winning the division at 8-8 or 9-7. Without LT, things will be tough, but he's not out all year, so maybe they still have a shot to be an elite team. Phillip Rivers is great, and has weapons he likes, so maybe they'll do Ok. See? I'm already talking myself into taking them against spreads I shouldn't...

NFL Week One Preview

Here we are again, ready to begin another fantastic football season. The excitement is palpable. Football fans all over town are already chattering, wondering if the Steelers will be as good, if the Titans will be for real again, and if Trigger can pull his head out of his ass and pick some games correctly this year. Let's hope so...

Thursday, Sept 10th:
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6
O/U: 34.5
Both of these teams stand to be quite good, but after a Super Bowl title, Pittsburgh is bound to be a little bit better. Key Word: Little. 6 points is too many. First of all, Tennessee was 6-1-1 against the spread on the road last season, and was 3-0 ATS when they were the underdog. They've also WON 11 of their last 14 against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 opening games, but was only 4-4 ATS at home last season. If you're an over/under fan, it may be a tough bet, as the under is 5-1 in TEN's last 6 week 1 road games, yet the over has been 8-1 in Pittsburgh's last 9 games in September. Out of the last 12 meetings between these two franchises in Pittsburgh, the Over is 10-2, so if you're leaning, over may be the way to fall, despite how good both of these defenses are.
My Pick: Titans +6. Tennessee will cover, but they'll still lose 24-20.

Sunday, Sept. 13th:
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -4
O/U: 43
This one is a bit tough to call. On one hand, Miami is 0-5-1 ATS in their past 6 vs. Atlanta and was 0-4 ATS against NFC teams last year (and that was the putrid NFC West...). On the other, the Fins were 4-1 ATS as a road underdog last year. I have great faith in Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, but it's the Falcons D I'm not sure about. They'll be solid, but how will they perform against a wildcat with teeth? (Teeth=Pat White's Passing Ability). I have to give creedence to Atlanta's confidence and experience over the inconsistency and unpredictability of the Fins.
My Pick: Falcons -4. Atlanta wins big at home 31-21.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 36
I think the oddsmakers are trying to say that the Cassel-less Chiefs won't score much against the Ravens D. They are probably right, but don't discount the Chiefs, who despite a 2-14 record last season were still 8-8 ATS. Most of the spread trends make me think I should take Kansas City, which is 9-2 in their last 11 as an underdog of more than 8, was 5-3 as a road dog last year, and is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games in September. There are two major problems with these trends, however. First, Brodie Croyle will be the starting QB and is facing the Baltimore D. Second, the Ravens were the best team ATS last year, were 7-1 as a favorite, and lost ATS only once at home all year. Flacco is confident, Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are a talented tandem, and the Chiefs have a very questionable defense, which would suggest that over is a safe bet, especially if you agree that the Ravens will cover the spread.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore rolls 31-10.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4
O/U: 43
These teams will not be good, but this could be a competitive game based on an equal lack of talent. Denver was awful ATS last year (5-10-1), but was 4-4 ATS on the road. Cincy was 7-9 ATS overall and is 3-1 ATS in their last four against the Broncos at home, but is only 4-8 ATS in their last twelve games as a favorite. Denver is 10-2 in their last 12 vs. Cincy, but those games have been spread out over many years, and Denver was a much better team throughout that period of time. Denver is down right now, and with all of the off-the-field distractions surrounding the Brandon Marshall situation, I'm not sure what to expect from them. Cincy was awful last year, but with a healthy Carson Palmer and a (he says...) humbled and hungry Chad Ochocinco, they could surprise some people. No surprises in week one; they should handle the Broncos at home.
Bengals -4. Cincinnati starts things off right, 26-19.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Vikings -4
O/U: 40
Linebuster!
Cleveland was 3-1 ATS as a home underdog last season, and the Vikings were not very good against the spread (6-10), but this pick needs to be based more on the players than on past trends. Cleveland hasn't gotten much better. Their running back is a year older, their quarterback is the same, and they haven't done much to make the defense better. Minnesota, on the other hand, went out and got the one thing they needed: A quarterback. If Favre gets injured, the Vikings won't be any better than last year. With him, however, I think they are a Super Bowl contender. Yeah, that's right, I said it. You may think I'm nuts. But look at their roster; they have everything you need to win in the NFL. Of course, if you prefer to bet based on prior trends, you can take solace in the fact that Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 openers...I'd also recommend the under, assuming Cleveland won't score much.
My Pick: Vikings -4. Vikings roll 27-12.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 44
Both teams have very solid records ATS in week one, but Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games @ IND. The Colts started out slow last year, but part of the reason for that was Peyton's preseason absence. Indy struggled against the spread as home favorites (2-5) in their first year at Lucas Oil Field, but Jacksonville struggled everywhere. Against everybody. They were just 4-12 ATS all year long. But it's a new season, Jones-Drew is fresh, and the Jags defense is all ready to go. If Bob Sanders is out for Indy, Jacksonville could score 20+ points and beat the spread. If he does play, the Colts should roll. Either way, Indy will put up points, so the over is a good bet.
My Pick: Jaguars +7. Too many points. Colts win 27-22.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13
O/U: 49
The Saints are going to be a solid team, but 13 is a lot to cover in week one, even against the Lions. Detroit is 11-2 in their last 13 games as an underdog of more than 8, and has WON their last two games as an underdog @ NO. Talent at the linebacker position can limit Reggie Bush's effectiveness, and the Lions certainly have that in Julian Peterson and Larry Foote. New Orleans has plenty of guys to throw to, but the Lions do, too. If Stafford is steady, the Lions can beat this spread, and may even beat the Saints. The over is 12-2 the past 14 times the Lions have been a big dog (+8 or more), but New Orleans generally doesn't get the offense clicking right away, and as such the under has been 8-2 their past 10 opening weeks. I would still go with the over, based on the talent on offense and perceived lack of defense.
My Pick: Lions +13. New Orleans squeaks by 31-29.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Cowboys -6
O/U: 39
The Bucs covered only 1 game as an underdog last season, but have outscored the Cowboys 43-7 in their last 2 games in Tampa. The problem for Tampa is that they don't have enough defense this season to keep their offense close, and that will cost them a lot of games. Dallas has the firepower to exploit the Bucs D and buck the line trends that seem to be against them. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams, and should be a solid play once again.
My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins big 30-6.

New York Jets @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 43.5
In Houston's short history, they are 0-3 against the Jets, 0-3 ATS against the Jets, and all three games have been played "under". The Jets were also 3-1 ATS as a road dog last year. Those seem like pretty strong trends. Starting on the road will be good for Sanchez, as he'll avoid some of the pressure that would be on his shoulders if the game were played in New York. He'll be able to go out, focus, and do his job. The Jets also return enough defensive talent to keep up with Houston's quick offense, and should, at the very least, keep the game close.
My Pick: Jets +4.5. Jets win outright 20-17.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Eagles -1
O/U: 43.5
Linebuster!
Carolina lost only one game ATS at home all of last season, but was never a home underdog, so things are a bit different. They are also 1-6 in their last 7 week one home games. Philly is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. CAR, and is used to facing teams with a solid defense and running game. Vick isn't going to be a factor yet, but the Eagles are still an excellent team without him, and I remain concerned that Jake Delhomme is due for an off year. The under is 12-4 in Carolina's last 16 September home games, but Philly lit it up early last season, so the O/U is a tough bet.
My Pick: Eagles -1. Philly is too good, and gets things started properly, 30-17.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -6.5
O/U: 46
Linebuster!
Arizona was 5-1 ATS as a home favorite last year, and won all 6 games ATS against the NFC West. They'll be good again, the 49ers will struggle. I would consider taking the under, as Arizona has a confident defense looking to continue rolling from last season, and I don't think the Cards will score 40 by themselves. But I guess you never know...
My Pick: Cards -6.5. Arizona rolls 34-10.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -8.5
O/U: 41.5
Every trend points toward the resurgent Seahawks, who look to be significantly better than they were last year, and may even challenge for the division crown. Seattle is 6-2 ATS in the past 8 vs. St. Louis, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home favorite, and the Rams are 1-7-1 in their last 9 openers and 1-7 in their last 8 within the division. It will be another long year for the Rams, and it will all begin on Sunday. Also of note, the under is 7-1 for the past 8 Rams openers, so it is a pretty safe bet.
My Pick: Seahawks -8.5. Seattle gets started right with a 27-10 victory.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 37
The Skins were .500 ATS as a road dog last year, and the Giants were 2-0 ATS against the Skins and were 6-2 ATS in '08 as a home favorite. The only safe play seems to be the under, which has hit 8 of the last 9 Washington openers, 7 of the last 8 games the Skins have played within the division, and 8 of the last 9 games between these two teams at Giants Stadium. My concern is that if the under hits again, the Giants may not have scored enough points to distance themselves by 7 points. Then again, Washington will be doing nothing against that NY D-Line.
My Pick: Giants -6.5. Giants win 17-6.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 46
Neither team performed well against the spread last year, which is why Green Bay's mark of 5-0-1 against the division is such an outlier. The problem is that last year was Green Bay's only win ATS at home against the Bears in their last 5 tries (1-3-1). My gut reaction is to say the Bears will win, but Lambeau is a tough place to play, and I'm not sure how well Cutler is gelling with his teammates. He also has nobody to pass to. Keep in mind Devin Hester has never really excelled as a primary receiver, and began as a DB. When the Bears prove they can throw, I'll consider them a bigger threat. The Packers also blew the Bears out of Lambeau last year. Keep in mind that the Bears have played 5 straight week 1 unders, so go low.
My Pick: Packers -3.5. Green Bay wins 24-20.

Monday, Sept. 14th:
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 47.5
Linebuster!
I know my Bills, and I know when they play the Pats they tend to lose by A LOT. The numbers support this trend as well. The Bills are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Pats, and were just 1-5 ATS last year within the division. The one detractor for the Pats is that they have struggled (2-11) against the spread as a double digit favorite. Buffalo has TO, but how much can he do if Trent Edwards is the one throwing him the ball? New England is also at home...on Monday Night...as a Super Bowl favorite...and it's Tom Brady's first game back from injury. This one ain't gonna be pretty, folks. As for the O/U, go low, as the Under has come up 9 of the last 10 games between these teams in Foxboro.
My Pick: Pats -10.5. Gotta go against my team. NE is too strong for Buffalo. 31-17.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
It's a linebuster based on the very clear trends that make this game a bit easier to predict. San Diego is better than Oakland, and will be a playoff team. Merriman's situation is a distraction, but I don't think it will hurt things in week 1. Oakland is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 opening games, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against the Raiders, and went 2-6 ATS at home last season. They are no better, I have no faith in Jamarcus Russel, and although McFadden may have a big year, I don't have faith in Tom Cable as a head coach. The Raiders are doomed to have another 4 or 5 win season, and San Diego will get off to a good start. If you want to play O/U, go under, as it has gone 8-2 with San Diego as a week 1 favorite.
My Pick: Chargers -9. San Diego gets off to a fast start, 23-13.

Preseason Playoff Picks

Wildcard:
4 SD over 5 TEN
3 IND over 6 BAL
5 PHI over 4 CAR
3 ARI over 6 CHI

Divisional:
4 SD over 1 NE
2 PIT over 3 IND
1 NYG over 3 ARI
2 MIN over 5 PHI

Championship:
2 PIT over 4 SD
2 MIN over 1 NYG

Super Bowl:
PIT over MIN

2009-10 NFC Preview

NFC EAST:

The East is going to be very good again, and with a schedule that includes the AFC West and NFC South, the division should get at least 2 teams into the playoffs.

New York Giants
Predicted '09 Finish: 11-5
Key Addition: A Healthy D-Line
The 2009 New York Giants may be remembered as the best defensive line in the history of the NFL when it is all said and done. They have the potential to be THAT good. The offense loses some punch without Burress and Toomer, but Jacobs and Manning are known quantities, and should keep the offense consistently solid. Not great, but solid. If they are clicking on all cylinders at the end of the year, they'll be a legit Super Bowl contender.

Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted '09 Finish: 11-5
Key Addition: Michael Vick
One of the main reasons many analysts feel that Vick won't be particularly significant to the Eagles offense is that the wildcat averages a little over 5 yards per play, while McNabb averages well over 6 yards per pass attempt. The problem with this stat is that the wildcat in 2008 was primarily used by teams that had very little threat of a pass from the formation. Vick is a viable passing and running option, thus the Eagles' version of the wildcat is likely to be far more effective. Andy Reid's passing mentality will result in limited plays for Vick, but I think he will be used, and will be a factor. If Westbrook stays healthy and Desean Jackson is as good as he was last year, the Eagles will be quite good, and will be in the conversation at the end of the year.

Dallas Cowboys
Predicted '09 Finish: 9-7
Key Addition: New Cowboys Stadium
No more TO means no more distractions, but it also means no more dual threat at Wide Receiver. Roy Williams is great, but there is a dropoff after him. Austin, Crayton, and Hurd are all capable guys, but are not the threat TO was. And who knows how effective Williams will be? Expectations and pressure are high in Big D, especially with the new stadium, and I'm not sure the Cowboys have bolstered their roster enough to be a playoff team coming from such a tough NFC East.

Washington Redskins
Predicted '09 Finish: 8-8
Key Addition: Albert Haynesworth
The Skins have a great defense. The problem is that they have the exact same crappy offense from last season. Portis is solid, but without an effective quarterback to take pressure off the run game, he'll have trouble getting free. Jason Campbell is not the answer, and until they realize that in Washington, they are bound to remain in the cellar of the NFC East.


NFC NORTH:

The North could be one of this year's most interesting and exciting divisions, as three teams could legitimately win it. As they match up against the AFC North and NFC West, even Detriot should get a couple of extra wins, although they certainly won't contend.

Minnesota Vikings
Predicted '09 Finish: 11-5
Key Addition: Brett Favre
The Vikings were an excellent team in need of one final piece: A Quarterback. They got that piece in the form of a future hall-of-famer, and many experts still don't think they'll win the division. Go figure. They have a stellar defense (assuming Pat and Kevin Williams don't have to serve their 4-game suspensions for failed steroid tests during this season), and the Favre-led offense will be excellent. I also think Percy Harvin will emerge as a very productive member of the team, able to fill that Wes Welker-like role as a third wide receiver. A legitimate passing attack will make Peterson even better, and Favre can certainly run an offense. Also keep in mind that Favre has that amazing defense backing him up, so even if he does something stupid, he may get away with it. Unless he gets injured, which is a significant possibility, they will win the division.

Chicago Bears
Predicted '09 Finish: 10-6
Key Addition: Jay Cutler
Chicago is a defensive team that generally has trouble scoring enough points. The one year the offense got things working, they ended up in the super bowl. So you know they have potential, with the addition of Jay Cutler, should be very good. The key problem will be finding receivers for Cutler to throw the ball to. Forte is now a proven commodity, and you know the defense will be solid. As long as a couple of receivers step up and prove themselves, the Bears should find themselves in the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers
Predicted '09 Finish: 10-6
Key Addition: None
The Packers weren't very good last season, and really didn't make any changes. The reason they are expected to be so much better is that Aaron Rodgers has not had to deal with the Brett Favre saga (or at least not the same Brett Favre saga...), and should play with more confidence this year. The defense will be decent, and Ryan Grant is a capable rusher, but I don't see the Packers making a playoff run. They just didn't do enough in the offseason to make themselves better, and the other two division front runners did.

Detroit Lions
Predicted '09 Finish: 2-14
Key Addition: Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan was an anomaly; don't expect Matt Stafford to be a rookie sensation, too. Especially when thrust into a difficult situation with a team that has struggled mightly for a long time. He has good receivers to throw to and a decent running nack to relieve the pressure, but that doesn't mean the Lions will be good. Only that they should win a few games. The defense will struggle a bit, but has a solid core of LBs led by Larry Foote and Julian Peterson. It'll be another tough year in Detroit, though things are looking up for the future.


NFC SOUTH:

Matchups with the NFC East and AFC East will cause NFC South records to be a bit worse than last year, but the division should still be competitive amongst the top three.

Carolina Panthers
Predicted '09 Finish: 9-7
Key Addition: None
Carolina was sneaky good last year; they snuck up on a lot of teams. This season everyone knows what to expect. The running game will be good with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but I worry that DelHomme may be unable to put together another excellent season. The defense will be good again, and I think they will win the division, but I'm not sure how far they will go should they reach the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints
Predicted '09 Finish: 9-7
Key Addition: Heath Evans
The Saints will be a good team again, but may not have enough to make the playoffs. The defense is very much the same, and has the confidence to succeed, but Reggie Bush hasn't been as consistent as he needs to be. If Bush and Brees are both outstanding all year long, the Saints could win the division and make the playoffs. I'm betting they come up a little bit short.

Atlanta Falcons
Predicted '09 Finish: 9-7
Key Addition: Tony Gonzalez
Matt Ryan is a solid quarterback, and now that he has some starting experience, he should be even better. The issue for the Falcons is whether or not the defense can remain consistent enough against the pass to keep its offense in games. The secondary is young and not very deep. If they succeed, so will the Falcons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted '09 Finish: 6-10
Key Addition: None
The loss of Monte Kiffin is the major reason I cannot picture the Bucs winning more than 6 games. They also recently cut their offensive coordinator; a sign of instability within the coaching staff. Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams can rush and Byron Leftwich can be a solid quarterback, but the Bucs are not built to score a ton of points. They rely on their defense, which has lost a lot of talent and will not be as good this season as they have been in the past. It will be a tough season in Tampa.


NFC WEST:

Seattle will be much better, and will give Arizona a run for the division, but now that they know the taste of a super bowl, I'll bet the Cardinals will remain the team to beat. The West gets the AFC South and NFC North, which will be a challenge, but will not be impossible. That also means the Cards won't have to travel east as many times as they did last year, which will be good for them as their only win in the eastern time zone was the NFC title game in Philly.

Arizona Cardinals
Predicted '09 Finish: 10-6
Key Addition: Beanie Wells
The Cards will be as potent as last season through the air, and though Tim Hightower will be the primary back, Beanie Wells will get some carries, and could potentially prove to be the new go-to runner in Arizona. The defense isn't any better on paper, but the confidence it gained down the stretch on its Super Bowl run will prove to be very valuable. If they play to their potential, the Cards should cruise to the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

Seattle Seahawks
Predicted '09 Finish: 9-7
Key Addition: TJ Houshmandzadeh
Hoosh is a huge addition to an offense that desperately needed a passing threat, and if the O and D stay healthy (which was the main problem last year...), they will be able to challenge the Cards for the division, though I still believe it is the Cards' division to lose. Their running back by committee strategy should work out well with Julius Jones and Edgerrin James, unless Edge starts complaining about not getting enough carries again. The defense won't surprise anyone, but should be good enough to keep them in games. They wouldn't be a playoff team in any other division, but if they can beat out the Cards in the west, who knows.

San Francisco 49ers
Predicted '09 Finish: 7-9
Key Addition: None
Much the same team as last year, the 49ers should be a little better despite still having a question mark at quarterback. Coach Mike Singletary isn't going to take losing lightly, and players will be playing with a lot of pride, so they could surprise some teams. If the secondary improves significantly and Smith or Hill can perform adequately at QB, this team could be .500. If not, they could be awful.

St. Louis Rams
Predicted '09 Finish: 3-13
Key Addition: Steve Spagnuolo
Go take a look at the Rams roster and see if you have ever heard of any of their wide receivers. Actually, don't waste your time, you haven't. There is no one for Bulger to throw the ball to. Stephen Jackson is good, but he's no miracle worker. If every defense has only him to prepare for, he won't be going far. Spags is a defensive guy, so I'd expect the Rams inconsistent D to get a little better, but that won't be much consolation to Rams fans as they watch a bad team play even worse.

2009-10 AFC Preview

AFC EAST:

The AFC East looks to be weaker this year, despite being home to one of the Super Bowl favorites in New England. A far more challenging schedule includes the AFC South and NFC South, which will be far more challenging than the AFC West and NFC West were last season. Unless someone surprises, the Patriots will be the only team in the division to finish the year above .500.

New England Patriots:
Predicted '09 finish: 13-3
Key Addition: A Healthy Tom Brady
As long as Brady stays healthy, the Pats will win a lot of games. The defense is not good enough for the Pats to go undeafeated again, but they will easily win a weak AFC East and should contend for a Lombardi Trophy.

Buffalo Bills:
Predicted '09 Finish: 7-9
Key Addition: T.O.
I want to say that I think the Bills will make the playoffs, but it would be a lie. They are likely to start out slow, thanks to the recent firing of offensive coordinator Turk Schonert, and I'm not sure they'll get much better as the year goes on. Lynch is serving a suspension to start the season, so the Bills are left with Fred Jackson, who has admitted that his wrist/thumb injury will nag him all year, and may create a few extra fumbles. I have no idea what the Bills were thinking in cutting proven RB Dominic Rhodes, but they obviously have the utmost confidence in Jackson, who did show some promise last year. I have never had much faith in Trent Edwards, and feel that Jauron has stuck his neck out on the line by sticking with him this year. In other words, look for both Jauron and Edwards to be headed out of Buffalo before next season if things don't go smoothly. The defense will be solid again, but will they score any points?

Miami Dolphins:
Predicited '09 Finish: 7-9
Key Addition: Jason Taylor
Many analysts think the Dolphins will be "for real" again, but my guess is that NFL defenses will be ready for the wildcat this time around, and without much of a "passing" variant to offer from it, the Dolphins' wildcat will be tamed. Of course, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are still talented backs, and will have solid seasons on the ground, but with Ted Ginn Jr. as one of Pennington's only reliable options through the air, the Fins passing game may be a bit too one-dimensional to succeed. Jason Taylor leads a solid defense, but if the Fins keep him at linebacker the adjustment may hurt his effectiveness.

New York Jets:
Predicted '09 Finish: 6-10
Key Addition: Mark Sanchez
So what happens when you ask a rookie quarterback to lead a team with no receivers under the direction of a first-year defensive-genius head coach? Well, we're going to find out, but I don't think it will be pretty. Sanchez may be great, but will anyone come down with the football? Will anyone get open to begin with? Can the personnel that the Jets have run the defense that Rex Ryan is used to? There are just too many questions to predict that '09 will be anything but a disappointment to Jets fans.


AFC NORTH:

Boasting last year's AFC Champions and runners-up, the North is bound to be solid again in 2009. The addition of the AFC West to the schedule will provide a few extra wins, although games against the NFC North will be a challenge. At the very least, fans should be excited to see some great defensive battles when AFC and NFC North teams collide. There haven't been many changes, which usually leads to the status quo being upheld. In this case, that means very good Steelers and Ravens squads, and a tough year for fans in Ohio.

Pittsburgh Steelers:
Predicted '09 Finish: 12-4
Key Addition: A healthy backfield
I'm not sure anyone doubts that the Steelers can be great again, but they play the games for a reason. Pittsburgh overcame backfield injuries last year, but should Roethlisberger or a few key linemen go down, it could be a different story. If everyone stays healthy, however, Steelers fans will be waving their towels well into January.

Baltimore Ravens:
Predicted '09 Finish: 10-6
Key Addition: Domonique Foxworth
As if the Ravens' secondary wasn't scary enough, they get speedster Foxworth from the Falcons, who should be a nice compliment at CB working in front of Ed Reed. Bart Scott is gone, but the heart of the D has always been Ray Lewis, who is still around. Now that Flacco has some experience and confidence, he should be even better, but no matter how good Flacco is, the Ravens are still a defensive football team, and need to be if they're going to win games. Will the defense hold up? Ray Lewis is getting old, and Ed Reed will be playing through a nagging injury. If both perform to their full potential, the Ravens will be playoff-bound again in '09.

Cincinnati Bengals:
Predicted '09 Finish: 7-9
Key Addition: Laveranues Coles
The addition of Coles is a positive, but the best he can do is fill the gap left by the departure of Hoosh. Chad Ochocinco needs to have a big year, and cannot become a distraction, which we all know will be tough for him. Other than possibly having a better passing year, I'm not sure the Bengals will be much different. I don't think Cedric Benson can shoulder the load of being a primary back, and though he is a grinder, he isn't enough of a big gain threat to keep defenses from keying on Coles and 85. The defense is okay at best, and will struggle every now and then, making this an inconsistent team, and a tough one to predict week in and week out.

Cleveland Browns:
Predicted '09 Finish: 6-10
Key Addition: Entire Staff, starting with Eric Mangini.
I'd love to say that Mangini will instantly turn the Browns into a winner, but he's not the one on the field executing plays. The Browns lack experience and depth at wide receiver, and Jamal Lewis' is over 30 and without a proven backup. The defense will stop the run, which in that division is crucial, but I'm not sure the offense can put up enough points for it to matter.


AFC SOUTH:

The South was a great division last year, and should be solid again. Matchups against the easier AFC East and NFC West will boost records, and the Titans and Colts should both make the playoffs once again. What they do when they get there, however, will be another story.

Indianapolis Colts:
Predicted '09 Finish: 12-4
Key Addition: Healthy Manning in Preseason
With Manning healthy and able to take his reps in the preseason, the Colts should be consistently good all year long. The health of Bob Sanders is a huge question mark, though, as the D plays much better with him in the lineup. If he starts the majority of Indy's games, they'll do just fine. Offensively, the Colts need someone to step up as a third receiver, though the rest of the unit is solid and will put up good numbers. Much like the Pats and Steelers, if everyone stays healthy, the Colts will be in the championship picture.

Tennessee Titans:
Predicted '09 Finish: 11-5
Key Addition: Nate Washington
Tennessee looks to improve its passing game in '09 knowing full well that its dual running attack is going to put up big numbers once again. Washington will be a key part of that improvement once he gets healthy, though I worry that Kerry Collins may be due for a down year. Even without Haynesworth the defense is potent and deep, and I expect the Titans to be well within the playoff picture.

Houston Texans:
Predicted '09 Finish: 7-9
Key Addition: None
With no real big changes, the Texans promise to be much the same team they were last year, albeit more experienced and more confident. Andre Johnson is the only real threat at wide receiver, though he is a big one, and I'm not sure Slaton is quite ready to be the workhorse that Houston needs at running back. The defense keeps getting better with experience, but I think it'll be a couple more years before the Texans have a shot at the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars:
Predicted '09 Finish: 7-9
Key Addition: Torry Holt
It is time to find out if last season was a fluke, or if the Jags really are that bad. Can Jones-Drew shoulder primary back responsibilities? Will the defense crumble? Can Garrard perform consistently? Too many questions abound to think that this Jaguars team is playoff-ready, but I certainly think they will improve from '08.


AFC WEST:

The West was weak last year, and will be even weaker. It is unlikely that anyone will challenge the Chargers for the division, though the Raiders may have the best shot. All of these teams must struggle through the NFC East and AFC North, too, which is not going to be pretty.

San Diego Chargers:
Predicted '09 Finish: 11-5
Key Addition: Healthy Shawne Merriman (maybe...)
The San Diego Chargers have been a preseason Super Bowl contender for the past 3 seasons, yet have always managed to blow it. Last season it was due to inconsistent play from LT and health trouble for Merriman. This year, the offense seems to have fallen into place, but Merriman is in trouble with the law, perhaps jeopardizing the Chargers' championship hopes. He says it is a misunderstanding, which if true, should mean he won't miss any time. If there is truth to the accusation, however, Goodell will not hesitate to levee a large suspension. Merriman should know better; Nothing good can come of dating a woman with the last name "Tequila".

Kansas City Chiefs:
Predicted '09 Finish: 5-11
Key addition: Matt Cassel
Cassel was good in New England, surrounded by talent. We'll see how good he is now, surrounded by inexperience and inconsistency. Because of the coaching and management changes I am predicting 5 wins, though this is a team that could easily win only 2 or 3 games. Mike Vrabel brings solid veteran leadership to the defense, but Larry Johnson must play like a veteran superstar or it will be another long year in Kansas City.

Oakland Raiders:
Predicted '09 Finish: 5-11
Key Addition: Darriius Heyward-Bey
The Raiders were a bad team with an unproven coach last season. The only thing anyone has heard about them this season has had nothing to do with football; that Coach Tom Cable was accused of assaulting one of his own assistant coaches. Not a good omen. Al Davis is past his prime, and I fear that he is running the team into the ground. Heyward-Bey could be a big acquisition, but he lacks experience. And who knows how likely he is to even get the ball based on Jamarcus Russell's inconsistent play. McFadden could have a breakout year, though, so I would imagine the Raiders will win a few games they aren't expected to.

Denver Broncos:
Predicted '09 Finish: 4-12
Key Addition: Kyle Orton?
The Broncos downgraded at quarterback and pissed off their most talented player, WR Brandon Marshall. Even if they don't trade him, he isn't buying into the new philosphy, so if he plays, he'll have limited effectiveness. Their best defensive player Champ Bailey is getting old. This is going to be a long year in Denver.

2009-10 Line Preview

Before we take a look at what will no doubt be another wonderful NFL season, we must look to the past for some sage wisdom about the future...

AFC EAST:
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Streaked to 5-1 start, got everyone's hopes up in Buffalo, then crumbled.
Against the Spread: 6-10 overall, 2-6 home 4-4 away
1-3 vs. NFC West, 3-1 vs. AFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 1-5 in AFC East
(only win vs. spread within division @NYJ)
Prediction: I'm still concerned that Trent Edwards is not the answer at QB, but as long as he can get TO the ball 5+ times per game, the Bills should put up better offensive numbers than last year. They'll be better, and will hopefully make the playoffs, as they now have the NFL's longest active playoff drought.

Miami Dolphins: 11-5 in '08, won AFC East, lost to BAL in wildcard round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: Installed wildcat offense...and it worked!
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 2-6 home, 6-2 away
0-4 vs. NFC West, 3-1 vs. AFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 4-2 vs. AFC East (both division ATS losses at home (NYJ, NE))
Prediction: With people getting used to facing the wildcat, the Dolphins won't be surprising too many people.

New York Jets: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Brett Favre
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 3-5 home, 4-4 away
0-4 vs. AFC West, 2-2 vs. NFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 1-0 vs. AFC North, 3-3 vs. AFC East (3-0 away, 0-3 home)
Prediction: Sanchez may be good, but he has no one to throw to, unless they make a move for the Broncos' Brandon Marshall. Even if they make a move, I still think they'll be battling the Dolphins for 3rd in the division.

New England Patriots: 11-5 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Brady injured in week 1
Against the Spread: 9-6-1 overall , 3-4-1 home, 6-2 away
2-2 vs. AFC West, 2-1-1 vs. NFC West, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 4-2 vs. AFC East (Both division ATS losses at home)
Prediction: The Pats are obviously a totally different team with Brady than without, so I'm not sure how much stock I will put in these numbers when it comes time to pick Patriots games. They'll be good, and I'd bet on them winning the division. Don't expect an undefeated year, but depending on how they gel together, this team could go 14-2.

AFC NORTH:
Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 in '08, won AFC North, won Super Bowl.
Big Storyline: Umm...they won the super bowl...
Against the Spread: 9-7 overall, 4-4 home, 5-3 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 2-2 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC East, 0-1 vs. AFC West, 4-2 vs. AFC North (2-1 home, 2-1 away)
Prediction: They will be good again, and should win the division, if not more.

Baltimore Ravens: 11-5 in '08, playoff wildcard, beat MIA and TEN, lost to PIT in AFC Champ.
Big Storyline: Elderly defense combats osteoporosis with bone-jarring hits.
Against the Spread: 12-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 home, 6-2 away
2-1-1 vs. AFC South, 3-1 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 5-1 in AFC North (only ATS loss at home vs. PIT)
Prediction: The Ravens won't be as good defensively due to aging and Rex Ryan's departure, but might be a bit better on offense as Flacco matures as a QB.

Cleveland Browns: 4-12 in '08, missed playoffs, 2nd worst record in AFC.
Big Storyline: The Browns follow up playoff campaign with terrible season.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 3-5 home, 4-4 away
2-2 vs. NFC East, 2-2 vs. AFC South, 1-0 vs. AFC East, 0-1 vs. AFC West, 2-4 vs. AFC North (Division ATS wins: Home vs. Pit, @ Cin)
Prediction: The Mangini era begins, though the Browns will likely be only marginally better.

Cincinnati Bengals: 4-11-1 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Chad Ochocinco legally changed his name; NFL still wouldn't let him put "Ochocinco" on his jersey.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 4-4 home, 3-5 away
1-3 vs. AFC South, 4-0 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 1-5 in AFC North (only win in week 16 vs. Cle)
Prediction: The Cowboys did the preseason HBO series "thing" last year and missed the playoffs. That "curse" will continue. Cincy will have another tough year, but should improve on last year's pathetic effort, assuming Ocho Cinco is serious about getting on the same page with Carson Palmer. Then again, the loss of Houshmandzadeh may hurt more than a positive Chad Johnson can help.

AFC SOUTH:
Indianapolis Colts: 12-4 in '08, playoff wildcard, lost to SD in first round.
Big Storyline: Finished season on 9-game win streak, yet were ousted in the first round of the playoffs.
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 3-5 home, 5-3 away
1-3 vs. NFC North, 3-1 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 3-3 vs. AFC South (2-1 away, 1-2 home, began 1-3 vs. division ATS and covered final 2 wks)
Prediction: They're the Manning-led Colts. They'll be good. Will they make the playoffs without Dungy? We'll see, but I would think that unless the Titans are as good as last year, no one else will stand in their way.

Tennessee Titans: 13-3 in '08, won AFC South, lost to BAL in divisional round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: "Undefeated" conversation began around week 7, first loss was week 12 vs. Jets.
Against the Spread: 11-4-1 overall, 5-3 home, 6-1-1 away
3-0-1 vs. AFC North, 3-1 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 4-2 vs. AFC South (lost ATS last 2 division games, @ IND and @ HOU)
Prediction: I may just be continuing to underestimate this team, but I don't think they will be as good this season. The Haynesworth departure is a big loss, Kerry Collins is another year older, and Vince Young still isn't ready to take over. Their running game will win them games, but I'm not sure they'll be better than 11-5 or so.

Houston Texans: 8-8 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Was there one? They did beat the Titans...
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 4-4 home, 4-4 away, won 6 of last 7 ATS
2-2 vs. AFC North, 2-2 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 0-1 vs. AFC West, 4-2 vs. AFC South (2-1 home, 2-1 away, won last 3 division games ATS)
Prediction: Houston has steadily gotten better, but doesn't have enough talent to get over the hump and make the playoffs. They'll likley be right around .500 again.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: This was supposed to be a playoff team. Wasn't even close.
Against the Spread: 4-12 overall, 1-7 home, 3-5 away
0-4 vs. AFC North, 2-2 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. AFC West, 0-1 vs. AFC East, 1-5 vs. AFC South (only division ATS win @ IND)
Prediction: Since they have nowhere to go but up, I'd expect them to be quite a bit better. Of course, seeing how bad they were last year, I wouldn't pencil them into the playoff tree just yet.

AFC WEST:
Denver Broncos: 8-8 in '08, lost final 3 games of the season to miss playoffs on a tiebreaker.
Big Storyline: Cutler is the "next big thing".
Against the Spread: 5-10-1 overall, 1-6-1 home, 4-4 away
1-2-1 vs. NFC South, 1-3 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC South, 2-4 vs. AFC West (won first 2, lost final 4)
Prediction: They limped to the finish in '08, lost their young stud QB, and somehow pissed off their best WR to the point that he wants a trade. I can't imagine that things are getting better.

San Diego Chargers: 8-8 in '08, won AFC West, beat IND, lost to PIT in playoffs.
Big Storyline: Nearly screwed out of division title by officiating mishap in week 2.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 4-4 home, 3-4 away, 0-1 Neutral
1-3 vs. NFC South, 2-2 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. AFC North, 0-1 vs. AFC South, 3-3 vs. AFC West (2 of 3 ATS losses were KC, the other one was due to a bad call by a referee @Den in week 2)
Prediction: The Chargers should be good, but always seem to underwhelm. I think this may be the year Phillip Rivers shows his mettle and leads the team on a solid charge to the playoffs. It will also help to have Merriman at 100%.

Kansas City Chiefs: 2-14 in '08, worst record in AFC, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Big linebusters...rarely won, but messed up the spread a lot.
Against the Spread: 8-8 overall, 3-5 home, 5-3 away
2-2 vs. AFC East, 1-3 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 0-1 vs. AFC South, 5-1 vs. AFC West (only ATS loss at home vs. OAK in week 2)
Prediction: They have to be better than 2-14, don't they?

Oakland Raiders: 5-11 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Departure of Kiffin; some Cable guy takes over.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 2-6 home, 5-3 away
3-1 vs. AFC East, 1-3 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. AFC South, 0-1 vs. AFC North, 2-4 vs. AFC West (both wins on road - KC and DEN)
Prediction: I am thoroughly convinced that Al Davis is going to run this team into the ground before he'll let someone else have it. I have no confidence in Tom Cable as a head coach, and I'm not sure Oakland will get any better this year. I think they may be even worse.

NFC EAST:
New York Giants: 12-4 in '08, won NFC East, lost to PHI in divisional round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: Plaxico Burress shot himself. Seems like a mistake few people would make...
Against the Spread: 12-4 overall, 6-2 home, 6-2 away
4-0 vs. NFC West, 2-2 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 4-2 vs. NFC East (covered the spread in all but 1 win)
Prediction: The Giants currently have one of the best defensive lines of all time. If everyone stays healthy, they'll be very good. Unless the addition of Vick in Philly is enough to de-throne them, the Giants should coast to another division title.

Philadelphia Eagles: 9-6-1 in '08, playoff wildcard, beat MIN and NYG before losing to ARI in NFC Championship.
Big Storyline: Nearly missed playoffs, ended up in NFC Championship.
Against the Spread: 10-6 overall, 6-2 home, 4-4 away
4-0 vs. NFC West, 2-2 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 3-3 vs. NFC East (2-1 away, 1-2 home - Only home ATS division win in week 17 vs. DAL)
Prediction: Vick will make this team better, and I honestly think they could give the Giants a run for their money, but they'll have to play consistently all year long. In other words, tying the Bengals and forgetting to bring your offense to Washington in week 16 are mistakes the 2009 Eagles may not be able to overcome.

Dallas Cowboys: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Not the dominant team everyone expected.
Against the Spread: 7-9 overall, 4-4 home, 3-5 away
2-2 vs. NFC West, 1-3 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 2-4 vs. NFC East (2 division ATS wins: @WAS, vs. NYG)
Prediction: Romo can focus now that he kicked Jessica to the curb, but without TO to throw to, I don't know that the offense will improve. I think they'll be a very similar team to the one we saw last season, and barring some big wins against New York or Philly, will likely be just on the outside of the playoff bubble once again.

Washington Redskins: 8-8 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: I interviewed a bunch of them before the season, and thought they had a shot at the division. For you kids out there, that's called "buying into the hype".
Against the Spread: 6-9-1 overall, 3-5 home, 3-4-1 away
1-2-1 vs. NFC West, 0-4 vs. AFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 3-3 vs. NFC East (2 of 3 divisional ATS wins vs. PHI, 3rd was @DAL)
Prediction: I can't see a Jason Campbell-led team making it through the brutal NFC East and into the playoffs. Like the Cowboys, they'll be very similar to last season. Haynesworth is a great addition, but merely replaces Jason Taylor. Though they have a very good defense, it is not enough to carry the offense "Ravens-style", and thus the Skins are destined to be right around the .500 mark again.

NFC NORTH:
Green Bay Packers: 6-10 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Aaron Rodgers at QB, Not Brett Favre. It didn't go well.
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 overall, 3-4-1 home, 5-3 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 0-4 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 5-0-1 vs. NFC North (tie was week 17 vs. DET)
Prediction: I'm not sure what I'm missing, but all of the analysts are saying the the Packers will be the class of the NFC North this year. Have they really done enough in the offseason to be that much better than a team that won only 6 games last year? I do think they will be better, maybe even as many as 4 wins better, but I think the Vikings will be VERY good now that they have a quarterback.

Minnesota Vikings: 10-6 in '08, won NFC North, lost to PHI in wildcard round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: How far can a super bowl team go without a good QB? Apparently the first round of the playoffs.
Against the Spread: 6-10 overall, 3-5 home, 3-5 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 2-2 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 1-5 vs. NFC North (only divisional win vs. CHI)
Prediction: The Vikings were a solid quarterback away from having a good shot at a super bowl run, so if Favre stays healthy and plays like a 35-year old, they'll be a solid contender.

Chicago Bears: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Still no QB...
Against the Spread: 7-7-2 overall, 3-4-1 home, 4-3-1 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 1-1-2 vs. NFC South, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 1-0 vs. NFC East, 2-4 vs. NFC North (won first 2 division games ATS - @DET, vs. MIN)
Prediction: Like the Vikings, the Bears were a solid quarterback away from being very good. If Cutler can learn the new offense and get on the same page as all of his receivers, the Bears could be quite good. I'm not sure what to expect from Matt Forte after a solid rookie season, but if he is running well the NFC North could be a three way race.

Detroit Lions: 0-16, worst record in NFL history, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: HAHAHAHAHA. Everyone was rooting for 0-16 after week 12. Except Lions fans, I presume.
Against the Spread: 6-9-1 overall, 1-7 home, 5-2-1 away
2-2 vs. AFC South, 1-3 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 3-2-1 vs. NFC North (beat the spread vs. MIN twice, @CHI)
Prediction: It can only get better, right? Maybe they can win a couple this season. Matthew Stafford has a lot to learn, but you have to figure they will put it all together at least once or twice. If you're betting Lions games, keep in mind that all but one of the games in which they beat the spread (@CAR) were played on turf.

NFC SOUTH:
Carolina Panthers: 12-4 in '08, won NFC South, lost to ARI in divisional round of playoffs.
Big Storyline: Better than expected. Even won a few games without Steve Smith!
Against the Spread: 8-6-2 overall, 5-1-2 home, 3-5 away
4-0 vs. AFC West, 1-2-1 vs. NFC North, 0-0-1 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 3-3 vs. NFC South (3-0 home, 0-3 away)
Prediction: The Panthers will be similar to the team we saw in '08, and will likely challenge for the division once again. The NFC South might be the best divisional race in the NFL this season. No team stands out as a true favorite (like NYG and PHI in the East) and every team in the division will be competitive (unlike DET in the North).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Lost final 4 games, including week 17 @ home to Raiders. A win would have put them in the playoffs.
Against the Spread: 6-8-2 overall, 4-4 home, 2-4-2 away
0-3-1 vs. AFC West, 4-0 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 0-1 vs. NFC West, 2-3-1 vs. NFC South (both divisional ATS wins at home)
Prediction: The Bucs are a solid team, but the South is too strong for a team to stumble. If they can't beat the easier teams on their schedule, they will quickly find themselves at the bottom of the division. In other words, 1-3 vs. the AFC West is unacceptable.

Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 in '08, playoff wildcard, lost to Arizona in playoffs.
Big Storyline: Matt Ryan is for real.
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 overall, 4-3-1 home, 4-4 away
3-1 vs. AFC West, 3-1 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 0-1 vs. NFC West, 2-3-1 vs. NFC South (2-0-1 home, 0-3 away)
Prediction: Like every other team in the division, they have a shot. Matt Ryan keeps getting better, and his confidence is sky-high after leading his team to the playoffs as a rookie. If the defense is consistent, Atlanta could be headed for the postseason again.

New Orleans Saints: 8-8 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Why isn't Reggie Bush more involved in the offense?
Against the Spread: 11-4-1 overall, 6-1 home, 4-3-1 away, 1-0 Neutral
4-0 vs. AFC West, 2-1-1 vs. NFC North, 1-0 vs. NFC West, 0-1 vs. NFC East, 4-2 vs. NFC South (both ATS losses on road - @TB, @CAR)
Prediction: The Saints are one of those teams that could be anywhere from an 11-5 team to a 6-10 team depending on how consistently they play. They certainly have the talent, but it remains to be seen whether they can get it done week in and week out.

NFC WEST:
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 in '08, won AFC West, lost to PIT in Super Bowl.
Big Storyline: Went to Super Bowl. For the Cardinals franchise, that's huge.
Against the Spread: 9-6-1 overall, 5-3 home, 4-3-1 away
2-2 vs. AFC East (2-0 home, 0-2 road), 1-3 vs. NFC East, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 0-0-1 vs. NFC South, 6-0 vs. NFC West
Prediction: The Cardinals will be a solid team again, though it remains to be seen whether or not Kurt Warner can put together a second straight solid season now that he is another year older. They should win the division, but how far they go from there remains to be seen.

Seattle Seahawks: 4-12 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Underachieved again.
Against the Spread: 7-8-1 overall, 4-4 home, 3-4-1 away
3-1 vs. AFC East, 1-3 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 2-3-1 vs. NFC West
Prediction: The Seahawks will be much better this year, if only because they have added TJ Houshmandzadeh, whose name I will not be writing in the blog again for the rest of the season. I'll just call him TJ. Or Hoosh. Seattle could be good enough to challenge the Cardinals, but I think they'll fall in around the .500 mark and lose out on a divisional title by a couple of games.

St. Louis Rams: 2-14 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: Can't seem to put it together.
Against the Spread: 6-8-2 overall, 4-3-1 home, 2-5-1 away
2-2 vs. NFC East, 2-1-1 vs. AFC East, 1-0 vs. NFC South, 0-1 vs. NFC North, 1-4-1 vs. NFC West (only ATS division win vs. SF, tied vs. SEA, 0-3 on road)
Prediction: They won't be worse, but they won't be much better either. Stephen Jackson will carry them to 4 or 5 wins, but that's about it. They need to re-tool a bit before they can even become a factor in what may be the league's weakest division.

San Francisco 49ers: 7-9 in '08, missed playoffs.
Big Storyline: New Coach rules with Iron Fist.
Against the Spread: 6-9-1 overall, 3-4-1 home, 3-5 away
3-1 vs. AFC East, 0-3-1 vs. NFC East, 1-0 vs. NFC North, 0-1 vs. NFC South, 2-4 vs. NFC West (ATS wins vs. SEA, @STL)
Prediction: San Fran will likely be a similar team to the one we saw last year. I love the intensity of Coach Singletary, and think he will be a great influence on the young players they have in San Francisco, but I can't get past the 49ers' quarterback situation. Their "quarterback competition" is like trying to pick the prettiest turd out of the bowl...neither QB is even close to ready to lead that team to the playoffs.