NFL Week Nine Preview

NO @ CAR

NO -3

49

I’m still not sold on New Orleans, and Carolina could really use a win. Their defense played well against the Seahawks but didn’t get much help on the other side of the ball. This is a battle for first place (at .500…) in the NFC South, which is kind of sad. Carolina is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 division games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. New Orleans has failed to cover 10 straight on the road. Both teams trend toward the Over.  

Pick: CAR +3. Panthers win 27-17 (Under)

SD @ MIA

MIA -2.5

45

San Diego is coming off back-to-back losses, but they always seem to play poorly against Miami (2-6 ATS last 8). Both teams are without their starting running backs, but each has had experience filling that void, as Mathews and Moreno have been frequent guests on the injured list in 2014. All told, I expect San Diego to be hungrier after two tough division losses.   

Pick: SD +2.5. Chargers win 23-20 (Under)

ARI @ DAL

DAL -4

48

Dallas is coming off a loss and Arizona’s record is already inflated. I don’t respect the Cowboys as a legitimate contender, but I think they’ll get back to their run game and will beat the Cards at home.

Pick: DAL -4. Dallas wins 24-19 (Under)

JAX @ CIN

CIN -10.5

44

This spread seems a bit large, but the Bengals need wins and are solid at home and the Jaguars are terrible regardless of where they play. The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and have played 3 of 4 Under against the AFC North. Cincy is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games against Jacksonville and has played 4 of 5 Under against AFC South opponents.  

Pick: CIN -10.5. Bengals win 24-10 (Under)

TB @ CLE

CLE -6.5

43.5

Cleveland tends to play down to their opposition, which could be a problem against Tampa Bay. The Bucs have kept games close against some solid teams. If Tampa shows up, they might pull out a win. Regardless, I think they’ll keep it close. They’re 7-0 ATS in their last 7 November games and have played 4 of 5 road games Over. Cleveland is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games against losing teams and has played 10 of 13 Under against NFC South foes.

Pick: TB +6.5. Cleveland wins 28-24 (Over)

WAS @ MIN

Pk

43.5

Minnesota is terrible and RG3 is back. Nuff said. The Skins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and have played 5 of 7 Over in Minnesota. The Vikings have covered 4 of 6 against the Skins and have played 8 of 12 Over at home.

Pick: WAS pk. Redskins win 34-13 (Over)

PHI @ HOU

PHI -2

48.5

The Eagles are only 5-9 ATS in their last 13 games against AFC South teams, but after a tough loss in Arizona I think they’ll be ready for the Texans. Houston is only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and have played 4 of 6 Under at home.

Pick: PHI -2. Eagles win 34-20 (Over)

NYJ @ KC

KC -9.5

42

Michael Vick should take this spread as a personal challenge. I think he’ll remind KC of why he was once feared, and the Jets defense will cause problems for the Chiefs, who aren’t exactly a powerhouse. Plus Rex Ryan will have a great game plan lined up after being embarrassed at home by a conference opponent. The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against KC and have played 7 of 10 road games Over. Kansas City is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against AFC East teams and have played 17 of 25 Under at home.  

Pick: NYJ +9.5. Jets win 31-17 (Over)

STL @ SF

SF -10

43.5

This is an awfully large spread for two teams that frequently play close games against one another. That said, San Fran is coming off a bye, needs a win, and is playing at home. As long as Kaepernick puts up points, the Rams won’t be able to do much to get back in the game. St. Louis is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 trips to SF and has played 5 of 6 Under on the road. The 49ers have only beaten the spread in 1 of their last 5 home games and have played 5 of 7 Under at home.

Pick: SF -10. 49ers win 37-10 (Over)

DEN @ NE

DEN -3

54.5

Logic suggests I pick the Broncos to win. They’re the superior team, and New England has quite a few weaknesses that the Broncos should be able to exploit. For some reason, however, I can’t help but think that Belichick has something up his sleeve. He hates being a home underdog and rarely loses in that situation. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to New England and have played 14 of 21 Over on the road. The Pats are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and have played 8 of 9 Over at home.

Pick: NE +3. Pats win 37-31 (Over)

OAK @ SEA

SEA -15

43

I refuse to pick a defensive team to win by more than two touchdowns, regardless of their opponent. Plus the Seahawks haven’t been playing particularly well without Percy Harvin threatening opposing defenses. That was a terrible trade. Of course, I’m not stupid; there’s no way I’d pick against Seattle to win at home. Oakland is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on Turf and has played 7 of 8 Over in Seattle. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Oakland and have played 6 of 8 Under at home.

Pick: OAK +15. Seattle wins 23-13 (Under)

BAL @ PIT

BAL -2

48

Pittsburgh got a big win over the Colts, but I believe it was a fluke. Their offense will stall against the Ravens, especially with Baltimore coming off a tough divisional loss to the Bengals. It’s rare for me to pick a sweep in the AFC North, but I believe Baltimore will get it done. That said, it’s Steelers-Ravens; so it’ll undoubtedly be decided by a field goal.

Pick: BAL -2. Ravens win 23-20 (Under)

IND @ NYG

IND -3

50.5

Indy suffered a tough loss against the Steelers and will likely rebound against the Giants. Though New York has been tough to predict, I doubt they can keep up with Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indy is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with losing records and has played 5 straight road Overs. The Giants are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and have played 4 of 5 Under at home.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-24 (Over)

BYES: ATL, BUF, CHI, DET, GB, TEN

NFL Week Eight Recap

Week Eight

ATS: 7-8

Straight Up: 6-9

Over/Under: 8-7

Overall

ATS: 65-53-3
Straight Up: 70-50-1
Over/Under: 56-63-2

SD @ DEN

DEN -8

51.5

Pick: SD +8. Chargers win outright 24-21 (Under)

Result: DEN 35-21 (Over)

DET @ ATL

DET -3.5

47

Pick: ATL +3.5. Falcons win 31-23 (Over)

Result: DET 22-21 (Under)

MIN @ TB                                    

TB -3

41.5

Pick: TB -3. Bucs win 27-17 (Over)

Result: MIN 19-13 (Under)

CHI @ NE

NE -5.5

50.5

Pick: CHI +5.5. Pats win 30-27 (Over)

Result: NE 51-23 (Over)

STL @ KC

KC -7

44

Pick: KC -7. Chiefs win 28-13 (Under)

Result: KC 34-7 (Under)

SEA @ CAR

SEA -5

45

Pick: CAR +5. Seattle wins 13-10 (Under)

Result: SEA 13-9 (Under)

BUF @ NYJ

NYJ -3

40.5

Pick: NYJ -3. Jets win 24-20 (Over)

Result: BUF 43-23 (Over)

MIA @ JAX

MIA -6

43

Pick: MIA -6. Dolphins win 23-13 (Under)

Result: MIA 27-13 (Under)

HOU @ TEN

HOU -2.5

42

Pick: HOU -2.5. Texans win 27-16 (Over)

Result: HOU 30-16 (Over)

BAL @ CIN

PK

45.5

Pick: BAL PK. Ravens win 20-17 (Under)

Result: CIN 27-24 (Over)

PHI @ ARI

ARI -3

48

Pick: ARI -3. Cards win 27-23 (Over)

Result: ARI 24-20 (Under)

IND @ PIT

IND -3

49.5

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 28-17 (Under)

Result: PIT 51-34 (Over)

OAK @ CLE

CLE -7

43

Pick: OAK +7. Raiders win 23-17 (Under)

Result: CLE 23-13 (Under)

GB @ NO

NO -1.5

56

Pick: GB +1.5. Packers win 34-17 (Under)

Result: NO 44-23 (Over)

WAS @ DAL

DAL -9.5

49

Pick: WAS +9.5. Dallas wins 20-13 (Under)

Result: WAS 20-17 (ot) (Under)

BYES: NYG, SF

NFL Week Eight Preview

SD @ DEN

DEN -8

51.5

After a lopsided win over the 49ers, Denver may have a hard time reloading the rifle to take on the Chargers with only 3 days rest, especially with San Diego coming off a loss and looking to redeem themselves. Only one of these teams’ last 8 meetings was decided by more than 8 points, so going against the 8-point spread is as easy call. San Diego is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and is 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver. The teams have played 4 of 6 Under, but the Broncos have played 10 of 13 Over against teams with winning records.

Pick: SD +8. Chargers win outright 24-21 (Under)

DET @ ATL

DET -3.5

47

Atlanta is far better at home than on the road, and Calvin Johnson is still banged up. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Atlanta and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following 2+ consecutive wins. These teams have played 5 of 6 Under, but I doubt this one will be low scoring.

Pick: ATL +3.5. Falcons win 31-23 (Over)

MIN @ TB

TB -3

41.5

I’d like to think this would be a win for Minnesota, but Tampa has had an extra week to stew over their week 5 embarrassment at the hands of the Ravens. Plus the Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against Minny. The teams have played 5 of 6 Over in Tampa, and the Bucs have played 6 of 9 Over at home.

Pick: TB -3. Bucs win 27-17 (Over)

CHI @ NE

NE -5.5

50.5

This should be an interesting matchup. The Bears will be looking to get back into the picture in the NFC North after a bad loss to the Dolphins, and the Pats will be hoping to make a better impression after a close win over the Jets. The Pats could blow out the Bears, especially on the road, but for some reason I like Chicago to cover. They’ve actually looked pretty good on the road this season. The Bears have lost 6 of 7 to the Pats, but New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Chicago has played 5 of 6 Over on the road and the Pats have played 7 of 8 Over at home.

Pick: CHI +5.5. Pats win 30-27 (Over)

STL @ KC

KC -7

44

Each of these teams pulled a major upset last week over a Super Bowl contending opponent. I think Kansas City is less of a fluke, and - as long as they stick with their run game - should be able to hold down the Rams, Especially at Arrowhead. St. Louis has failed to cover in 5 straight against KC, but the Chiefs are a surprising 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win within their division and have played 4 of 5 road games Under. Kansas City has played 17 of 25 Under at home.

Pick: KC -7. Chiefs win 28-13 (Under)

SEA @ CAR

SEA -5

45

After an embarrassing loss to the Packers, I expect Carolina to respond. Then again, after an embarrassing loss to the Rams, Seattle damn well better figure some things out as well. Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games but only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Seattle. The Panthers have played 9 of 13 Under at home and Seattle has played 5 of 7 Under against the NFC South.

Pick: CAR +5. Seattle wins 13-10 (Under)

BUF @ NYJ

NYJ -3

40.5

Buffalo hasn’t beaten the Jets in New Jersey in 5 years, the Jets are 1-6 and hurting for a win, and the Bills are without Spiller and Jackson; none of which sounds promising for the Bills. I’d like to think Anthony Dixon can carry the load, but given the Bills’ woes against the Jets (3-6 ATS last 9) this game sets up well to be win #2 for New York. The Jets have failed to cover in 4 straight home games and 3 straight games as a favorite. 5 of these teams’ last 6 meetings in Jersey have gone Over, but the Bills have played 5 of 7 Under on the road.

Pick: NYJ -3. Jets win 24-20 (Over)

MIA @ JAX

MIA -6

43

This spread seems big, especially considering that the Jaguars got a win last week. Then again, Posluszny is out, Lewis is out, and the Jags were probably only destined to get one win anyway. These teams have played 4 of 5 Under, and the Jags are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Pick: MIA -6. Dolphins win 23-13 (Under)

HOU @ TEN

HOU -2.5

42

I’m not sure what to make of Houston, but I have to believe they’re good enough to beat the Titans by at least a field goal, especially after a tough loss to Pittsburgh on Monday night. Plus Clowney might be back, which will mean Locker – or his backup – will spend most of the night on the ground. Tennessee is only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Texans, but Houston is only 2-5 ATS after a Monday night game. These teams have played 6 of 8 Over in Tennessee, but I don’t foresee a shootout.

Pick: HOU -2.5. Texans win 27-16 (Over)

BAL @ CIN

PK

45.5

Cincy has lost two in a row and is hungry to get back in the win column, but they have significant injury issues. Plus the Bengals won the teams’ first meeting, so I have to assume the season series will be split. It’s rare for one strong team to sweep another, especially in the AFC North. Baltimore is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 against Cincy and the Bengals are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. Baltimore has played 10 of 15 Over within the division and the Bengals have played 6 of 9 Over at home.

Pick: BAL PK. Ravens win 20-17 (Under)

PHI @ ARI

ARI -3

48

Philadelphia has always been great after a bye week (18-9 ATS last 27), but they also tend to struggle when traveling out west. For example, their only loss this season was in San Francisco and they’re 3-6 ATS in their last 9 trips to Arizona. The Cards are strangely good against the NFC East (4-0 ATS last 4) and are having an awesome season. Philly has played 8 of 11 Over on the road and 7 of 10 Over in Arizona.

This is a really tough pick – I’ve already written and erased explanations for a pick in each direction. If you’re betting this game, just flip a coin.

Pick: ARI -3. Cards win 27-23 (Over)

IND @ PIT

IND -3

49.5

The Colts have been playing well on both sides of the ball, but I expect them to have a bad game in the next few weeks. That said, I don’t think it’ll be against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense is just too shaky right now to expect them to stop Andrew Luck and the Colts’ balanced offense. Pittsburgh has won 8 of 9 at home against Indy and is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 against the Colts overall. Indy has played 8 of 9 Over on the road and these teams have played 5 of 7 Over against one another in Pittsburgh.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 28-17 (Under)

OAK @ CLE

CLE -7

43

Cleveland should rebound from their poor performance against the Jaguars, but it’s possible the Browns will be the Raiders’ only victory as well. Cleveland is last in the league in run defense and Oakland has Darren McFadden and MJD. Cleveland is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Raiders and has played 4 of 5 Over at home. Then again, these two teams have played 5 of 7 Under.

Pick: OAK +7. Raiders win 23-17 (Under)

GB @ NO

NO -1.5

56

I still don’t fully believe in the Packers – especially after a blowout win boosted their confidence –but I am also completely “sold” on the Saints being far worse than expected. Their roster looks strong, but they simply can’t get it together on the field. Maybe Brees is too old? I have no idea. But it hasn’t been pretty, and I refuse to continue to hold them in high esteem unless they start blowing people out. New Orleans is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games but hasn’t covered a spread yet this season. Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against the Saints and has played 6 of 7 Over on the road.

Pick: GB +1.5. Packers win 34-17 (Under)

WAS @ DAL

DAL -9.5

49

I still don’t understand how the Cowboys are good. The only difference between this year and 2013 is that Dallas has finally committed to the run. If that is honestly enough to make them a Super Bowl contender, every Cowboys fan should get a free kick to Garrett’s crotch for taking so long to figure that out. That said, NFC East games aren’t often decided by more than 10 points. Though that concept didn’t play out in my favor last week, I can’t pick against such a sound theory. After all, it’s the NFL; just because they’re the Redskins doesn’t mean they can’t hang with the Cowboys. The Skins have lost 15 of 18 in Dallas, but the Cowboys have only covered the spread once in the teams’ last 7 meetings in big D. The teams have combined to play 8 of 11 Under.

Pick: WAS +9.5. Dallas wins 20-13 (Under)

BYES: NYG, SF

NFL Week Seven Recap

Week Seven

ATS: 8-7

Straight Up: 6-9

Over/Under: 7-8

Overall

ATS: 58-45-3
Straight Up: 64-41-1
Over/Under: 48-56-2

NYJ @ NE

NE -9.5

44

Pick: NYJ +9.5 Pats win 27-24 (Over)

Result: NE 27-25 (Over)

CIN @ IND

IND -3

49.5

Pick: CIN +3. Bengals win 21-17 (Under)  

Result: IND 27-0 (Under)

TEN @ WAS

WAS -5.5

46

Pick: TEN +5.5. Titans win 26-24 (Over)

Result: WAS 19-17 (Under)

MIA @ CHI

CHI -3

49

Pick: CHI -3. Bears win 31-10 (Under)

Result: MIA 27-14 (Under)

CLE @ JAX

CLE -5.5

45

Pick: JAX +5.5. Jags win outright 34-24 (Over)

Result: JAX 24-6 (Under)

SEA @ STL

SEA -7

43

Pick: SEA -7. Seahawks win 24-0 (Under)

Result: STL 28-26 (Over)

CAR @ GB

GB -7

49

Pick: CAR +7. Carolina wins 23-16 (Under)

Result: GB 38-17 (Over)

ATL @ BAL

BAL -7

49

Pick: BAL -7. Ravens win 30-17 (Under)

Result: BAL 29-7 (Under)

MIN @ BUF

BUF -5.5

42.5

Pick: MIN +5.5. Bills win 23-20 (Over)

Result: BUF 17-16 (Under)

NO @ DET

DET -2.5

48

Pick: NO +2.5. Saints win 20-14 (Under)

Result: DET 24-23 (Under)

KC @ SD

SD -4

45

Pick: SD -4. Chargers win 23-17 (Under)

Result: KC 23-20 (Under)

NYG @ DAL

DAL -6.5

47.5

Pick: NYG +6.5. New York wins 23-21 (Under)

Result: DAL 31-21 (Over)

ARI @ OAK

ARI -3.5

44

Pick: ARI -3.5. Cardinals win 28-23 (Over)

Result: ARI 24-13 (Under)

SF @ DEN

DEN -6.5

49.5

Pick: DEN -6.5. Broncos win 34-26 (Over)

Result: DEN 42-17 (Over)

HOU @ PIT

PIT -3

44.5

Pick: HOU +3. Texans win 21-13 (Under)

Result: PIT 30-23 (Over)

BYES: PHI, TB

NFL Week Seven Preview

NYJ @ NE

NE -9.5

44

The loss of Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley is going to hurt the Patriots, who were already reeling a couple weeks ago due to offensive line issues. Just because they’ve put together a couple of wins doesn’t mean all is fixed in New England. The Jets have lost five in a row and will be playing for Rex Ryan’s job if things don’t improve quickly. I expect NY to put together a solid game plan and at least keep this game close. The Pats have only covered 6 of 19 spreads against the Jets at home but are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win over a division rival. The Jets have only beaten the spread once this season, but I’d say they’re due. Both teams trend heavily toward the Over.

Pick: NYJ +9.5 Pats win 27-24 (Over)

CIN @ IND

IND -3

49.5

After two lackluster performances, Cincy’s defense should respond to the challenge of slowing down Indy’s #1-ranked offense. Though the Colts have been solid, I expect the Bengals to get back on track and to prove they’re among the NFL’s best teams in 2014. Indy has won 5 straight home games against the Bengals but is only 3-2 ATS in those games. The teams have combined to play 4 of 5 Under in Indy and the Bengals have played 4 of 6 Under on the road overall.

Pick: CIN +3. Bengals win 21-17 (Under)  

TEN @ WAS

WAS -5.5

46

Washington very well may win this game, but I can’t justify giving them 5 ½ points. As long as Locker plays, Tennessee will be in the game throughout. The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Skins and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against NFC East foes. For some reason they play well against the NFC East. Tennessee has also played 4 of 5 Over against Washington and the Redskins have played 8 of 12 Over as a favorite.

Pick: TEN +5.5. Titans win 26-24 (Over)

MIA @ CHI

CHI -3

49

The Dolphins are a much different team without Knowshon Moreno. Even against a questionable Bears defense, I doubt they’ll be able to put up many points. Chicago is a stunning 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and Miami has gone 12-9 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. Chicago has played 4 of 5 Over at home but 5 of 7 Under against Miami.

Pick: CHI -3. Bears win 31-10 (Under)

CLE @ JAX

CLE -5.5

45

It’s a sad state of affairs when the Browns are favored to beat you by 5 ½ points in your own stadium. That said, this may be the week Jacksonville finally puts it all together. The Browns may have inflated egos after their blowout win against Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville has been scrapping along the last two weeks, narrowly losing to Pittsburgh and Tennessee. I doubt the Jags will go 0-16, and this is one of the few games they could win. Although the Jags are only 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, Cleveland has only won 3 of 25 on the road. Cleveland has played 5 of 7 Over on the road and the Jags have played 5 of 7 Over at home, so it’s a good thing I was leaning toward a higher-scoring affair.

Pick: JAX +5.5. Jags win outright 34-24 (Over)

SEA @ STL

SEA -7

43

I wouldn’t want to stand in Seattle’s way right now. St. Louis doesn’t have much offense; they might not score a point this week. The Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against Seattle and the Hawks are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 against teams with losing records. St. Louis has played 11 of 16 Over at home, but the teams have combined to play 7 of 8 Under.

Pick: SEA -7. Seahawks win 24-0 (Under)

CAR @ GB

GB -7

49

Jonathan Stewart should be back for the Panthers, who have played surprisingly well in his absence. Green Bay might be without their two starting cornerbacks and haven’t been playing particularly well to begin with. After almost losing to Miami, I don’t see a world in which spotting the Packers a touchdown is a smart bet. The Pack have won 5 of 7 against Carolina, but the Panthers have covered 4 straight against the NFC North. Green Bay has played 4 of 6 Over at home, but the Panthers have played 5 of 7 Under on the road.

Pick: CAR +7. Carolina wins 23-16 (Under)

ATL @ BAL

BAL -7

49

Atlanta has been atrocious on the road. I’m also concerned that they’ve begun to doubt themselves after a 2-4 start, especially coming off of a disappointing, injury-plagued 2013 season. Baltimore is putting up some big offensive numbers and should be a playoff team. Steve Smith Sr. looks like the piece they were missing; expect the Ravens to keep the momentum gained after a lopsided win over Tampa Bay. Baltimore has won 20 of 25 at home and is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Atlanta. The teams have combined to play 7 of 8 Under.

Pick: BAL -7. Ravens win 30-17 (Under)

MIN @ BUF

BUF -5.5

42.5

Minnesota has been getting beaten pretty soundly the last few weeks. No Adrian Peterson and a second-string quarterback are likely two of the major reasons why. The Vikings will face that same uphill battle against the Bills, who have a potent defense a strong home-field advantage. That said, I’m not willing to spot Buffalo 5 ½ points. The Bills are 4-7 ATS against teams with losing records and the Vikings are 6-2 ATS after 2+ consecutive losses. Buffalo has played 5 of 6 Under and the Vikings have played 5 of 7 Over on the road.

Pick: MIN +5.5. Bills win 23-20 (Over)

NO @ DET

DET -2.5

48

Hopefully New Orleans got their crap together during the bye week. This season has been embarrassing thus far for a team I expected to be a Super Bowl contender. They’ll get a Calvin Johnson-less Lions team this week and will hope to capitalize. I think the Lions are over inflated at 4-2, the Saints will thrive in the dome (even though it’s not THEIR dome), and New Orleans will prove that they figured some things out during their week off. Jimmy Graham may be out, but if Mark Ingram is back and can run the ball effectively, the Saints could get back to .500. The Saints have only covered 2 of 11 road spreads, but they’ve covered 3 straight against the NFC North and 4 of 5 against the Lions. Detroit has played 4 of 5 Under at home and the Saints have played 6 of 9 Under on the road.

Pick: NO +2.5. Saints win 20-14 (Under)

KC @ SD

SD -4

45

These teams frequently wage epic battles, and I doubt this game will be any different. San Diego is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a division contest, but KC has failed to cover their last 2 games after a bye week. I think San Diego’s defense will respond after allowing 28 points to the Chargers last week, but the Chiefs may keep it close. The question is how close. The teams have played 4 of 5 Over, but I don’t anticipate a shootout.

Pick: SD -4. Chargers win 23-17 (Under)

NYG @ DAL

DAL -6.5

47.5

I still don’t believe in the Dallas Cowboys. Even a big win in Seattle and a 5-1 record won’t convince me that they’re a contender. They frequently play tight games against divisional opponents, and even with Victor Cruz out of the Giants’ lineup, I expect NY to give Dallas all they can handle. Dallas is 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games against the Giants and have played 5 straight home Overs against New York. The Giants are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 road games but 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

Pick: NYG +6.5. New York wins 23-21 (Under)

ARI @ OAK

ARI -3.5

44

Unlike the Cowboys, Arizona may be for real. I trust Carson Palmer and believe the Cardinals have a nice balance between offense and defense. They’re just a solid football team. Arizona is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Oakland but is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a losing record. Oakland has only covered 1 of 7 at home but has played 4 of 5 Over at home and 4 of 5 Over against the Cardinals.

Pick: ARI -3.5. Cardinals win 28-23 (Over)

SF @ DEN

DEN -6.5

49.5

If San Francisco wants to be considered among the league’s best, they’ll have a chance to prove they’re a contender on Sunday Night. I think the 49ers have too many defensive injuries to stop Peyton Manning from tearing them apart at home and lack the offensive balance to keep up. Denver is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the 49ers and San Francisco is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a Monday Night matchup. The 49ers have played 5 of 6 Under on the road, but the Broncos have played 13 of 19 Over at home.

Pick: DEN -6.5. Broncos win 34-26 (Over)

HOU @ PIT

PIT -3

44.5

Both teams sit at 3-3, so I have to ask myself which team I could more easily see at 3-4. That’s easy: Pittsburgh. They’re not playing very well, and even a Fitzpatrick-led offense should be able to beat them. Pittsburgh has won 6 of 8 at home but has failed to cover in their last 2 Monday Night Football appearances. Houston is also bad on Monday Night; just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 MNF games. The Texans have played 2 straight MNF Overs, but the Steelers have played 14 of 21 Under at home.

Pick: HOU +3. Texans win 21-13 (Under)

BYES: PHI, TB

NFL Week Six Recap

Week Six

ATS: 11-3-1

Straight Up: 13-1-1

Over/Under: 5-9-1

Overall

ATS: 50-38-3
Straight Up: 58-32-1
Over/Under: 41-48-2

IND @ HOU

IND -3

46

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-20 (Over)

Result: IND 33-28 (Over)

JAX @ TEN

TEN -6

42.5

Pick: JAX +6. Tennessee wins 17-13 (Under)

Result: TEN 16-14 (Under)

DET @ MIN

DET -1.5

43

Pick: DET -1.5. Lions win 31-14 (Over)

Result: DET 17-3 (Under)

DEN @ NYJ

DEN -8

48

Pick: DEN -8. Broncos win 28-10 (Under)

Result: DEN 31-17 (Push)

PIT @ CLE

CLE -1.5

47.5

Pick: CLE -1.5. Browns win 23-21 (Under)

Result: CLE 31-10 (Under)

GB @ MIA

GB -3

49

Pick: GB -3. Packers win 24-17 (Under)

Result: GB 27-24 (Over)

CAR @ CIN

CIN -7

44

Pick: CIN -7. Bengals win 24-10 (Under)

Result: Tie 37-37 (Over)

NE @ BUF

NE -3

45

Pick: NE -3. Pats win 24-13 (Under)

Result: NE 37-22 (Over)

CHI @ ATL

ATL -3

53.5

Pick: CHI +3. Bears win 37-34 (Over)

Result: CHI 27-13 (Under)

WAS @ ARI

ARI -3.5

47

Pick: WAS +3.5. Cardinals win 20-17 (Under)

Result: ARI 30-20 (Over)

BAL @ TB

BAL -3

43.5

Pick: BAL -3. Ravens win 35-17 (Over)

Result: BAL 48-17 (Over)

SD @ OAK

SD -7

43

Pick: OAK +7. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

Result: SD 31-28 (Over)

DAL @ SEA

SEA -7.5

46.5

Pick: SEA -7.5. Seahawks win 37-17 (Over)

Result: DAL 30-23 (Over)

NYG @ PHI

PHI -3

50.5

Pick: PHI -3. Eagles win 41-28 (Over)

Result: PHI 27-0 (Under)

SF @ STL

SF -3

43.5

Pick: SF -3. 49ers win 21-16 (Under)

Result: SF 31-17 (Over)

BYES: KC, NO

NFL Week Six Preview

IND @ HOU

IND -3

46

Houston has given Indianapolis trouble the last few times they’ve played in Reliant Stadium, but the Colts know what’s on the line. Despite being an early-season game, this matchup will be huge in determining the eventual AFC South champion. Indy didn’t impress in their win over the Ravens, so I expect their offense to have a much better game against Houston. Plus all of the Thursday night games have been blowouts thus far in 2014. Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Colts at home, but only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games overall. Indy is 9-1 ATS on Thursdays and has played 7 of 8 Over on the road and 7 of 9 Over in Houston.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-20 (Over)

JAX @ TEN

TEN -6

N/A

The Jaguars have to win a game at some point, but after the Titans’ heartbreaking loss to the Browns, I doubt Tennessee is where they’ll get it. That said, it could be close.

Pick: JAX +6. Tennessee wins 17-13 (Under)

DET @ MIN

DET -1.5

N/A

This spread seems small, but I suppose the Vikings have been tough to figure out. I’ll assume their large point performance against Atlanta was related more to the Falcons’ woes on the road than to the Vikings’ ability to play well at home.

Pick: DET -1.5. Lions win 31-14 (N/A)

DEN @ NYJ

DEN -8

48

The Jets may play “OK”, but there is no way they can score more than Peyton. Denver is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against losing teams and the Jets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 against the Broncos. Denver has played 4 of 5 Over against the Jets, but New York’s offense is in disarray. I doubt they’ll put up much of a fight.

Pick: DEN -8. Broncos win 28-10 (Under)

PIT @ CLE

CLE -1.5

47.5

Roethlisberger had a solid outing against the Browns in Pittsburgh, but Cleveland almost came back from a huge deficit once they figured out the Steelers’ defense. I expect this game to be lower scoring than the teams’ first meeting, but given these teams’ relative proximity in skill this season I expect a series split. That said, Cleveland has only beaten the Steelers in 2 of their last 22 meetings and is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. 4 of these teams’ last 6 meetings in Cleveland have been played Under, but Cleveland has played 9 of 13 Over against teams with winning records.  

Pick: CLE -1.5. Browns win 23-21 (Under)

GB @ MIA

GB -3

49

The Packers smoked the Vikings last Thursday Night and may be overconfident, especially coming into Miami against a Dolphins team that had a bye in week 5. That said, Miami will probably still lose. It’s hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers. If the O-Line holds up reasonably well the Packers should pull this one out. Oh, and Knowshon Moreno is still injured. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against Green Bay, but the Packers have only won 3 of the teams’ last 10 meetings. Then again, they’ve only played 3 times since 2002, so I’m not sure how much stock we should put in those stats. The teams have played 7 of 9 Under, but Green Bay has played 5 of 6 road games Over.

Pick: GB -3. Packers win 24-17 (Under)

CAR @ CIN

CIN -7

44

This is a tough pick, as Carolina could give the Bengals a run for their money and keep this game close, even though Cincy is hungry to prove that last week’s blowout loss in New England was a fluke. Then again, Carolina is still without Williams and Tolbert, and Stewart is still “questionable”. With very little running game, I’m just not sure how Carolina will score any points. Cincy is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games and has played 4 of 5 Under.

Pick: CIN -7. Bengals win 24-10 (Under)

NE @ BUF

NE -3

45

Given the Patriots’ woes on the offensive line, I’m tempted to pick the Bills; they have one of the best D-lines in the NFL. Then again, the Pats always beat the Bills. Buffalo is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Pats and have played 11 of 16 Under against New England in Buffalo.

Pick: NE -3. Pats win 24-13 (Under)

CHI @ ATL

ATL -3

53.5

Atlanta is significantly better at home, yet they still have no defense; so this one should be a shootout. Though both suffered tough losses last week, I think the Bears will be a little hungrier. I think that for absolutely no reason, so you may want to shy away from betting this game. It’s really a toss-up. The Over is a solid bet, though. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Dome games and has played 11 of 13 Over against teams below .500. Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against the Bears and have played 9 of 12 Over at home.

Pick: CHI +3. Bears win 37-34 (Over)

WAS @ ARI

ARI -3.5

N/A

I have no idea who will be playing quarterback for the Cardinals, but they’ve looked pretty good through this point in the season. As long as Palmer or Stanton plays, the Cards should win. That said, Washington isn’t a terrible team and I expect them to put up a fight.

Pick: WAS +3.5. Cardinals win 20-17 (N/A)

BAL @ TB

BAL -3

43.5

Tampa is returning home after 3 straight on the road, so they could get a boost from the home crowd. For some reason, however, I feel like they’re going to totally crap the bed and get blown out. I have no basis for this feeling, but I’m going with my gut on this one. Tampa has only won 2 of their last 8 against the Ravens and the teams have played 5 straight Unders. That trend has to break sometime…

Pick: BAL -3. Ravens win 35-17 (Over)

SD @ OAK

SD -7

43

I don’t want to give the Chargers 7 points on the road. They’re playing well, but all of this “#1 in the power rankings” talk might get to their heads. Oakland has had a coaching change and is now playing for pride. When you start to make the game about “heart” and “pride”, you start getting an extra level of commitment out of your players. Plus Sparano is a weird dude and will probably throw some craziness into the playbook – like the Wildcat – that will confuse San Diego enough for the game to stay close. Oakland is only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against the Chargers, but San Diego is only 5-3 ATS after 2+ consecutive wins.

Pick: OAK +7. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

DAL @ SEA

SEA -7.5

46.5

There is no spread big enough for me to pick Dallas in this game. The Cowboys are overachieving at 4-1 and will be falling back to earth immediately. Plus the Seahawks crush everyone at home. Seattle is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against Dallas, but they’re 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games. Seattle has played 6 of 7 home games Under and Dallas has played 4 of 5 Under on the road.

Pick: SEA -7.5. Seahawks win 37-17 (Over)

NYG @ PHI

PHI -3

50.5

This is another toss-up. The Giants have been playing strangely well, but they’re not very good; I expect them to start losing again soon. Philly is likely the team to beat in the NFC East, but they’ve had major issues playing “a full 60 minutes”. The Giants have only won 3 of their last 12 meetings with Philly, but the Eagles are only 3-6 ATS in their last 9 home matchups with NY. Philly tends to play home Overs (5 of 6), but the Giants and Eagles have been trending Under at the Link (4 of 5).

Pick: PHI -3. Eagles win 41-28 (Over)

SF @ STL

SF -3

43.5

St. Louis has no business competing in this game. So they will probably keep it oddly close. Thankfully for 49ers fans, San Fran really needs wins to compete with Seattle and will be playing with passion. St. Louis has covered 4 of 6 at home against the 49ers, but San Fran has been pretty good in domes (6-3 ATS last 9). The Rams have played 10 of 15 Over at home, but the Rams and 49ers have played 5 straight Unders at the Edward Jones Dome.

Pick: SF -3. 49ers win 21-16 (Under)

BYES: KC, NO